Sector comment Korea / Retailing 26 May 2016 OVERWEIGHT Stocks under coverage Company Rating Price Target price, Analyst 3774 3987 duncanlim@miraeasset.com See the last page of this report for important disclosures
, Analyst, 3774 3987, duncanlim@miraeasset.com (%) 10.0 9.0 8.0 7.0 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 (%) 72.0 매출원가율(좌축) 판관비율(우축) 71.0 70.0 69.0 68.0 67.0 66.0 65.0 64.0 63.0 62.0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 (%) 31.0 29.0 27.0 25.0 23.0 21.0 19.0 17.0 15.0 2
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, Analyst, 3774 3987, duncanlim@miraeasset.com (%) 140 백화점 대형마트 편의점 120 100 80 88.6 118.0 99.8 60 69.5 40 20 0 48.9 30.2 18.7 19.1 18.2 13.7 14.1 13.2 객단가 5% 증가시 트래픽 5% 증가시 변동비 5% 감소시 고정비 5% 감소시 4
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, Analyst, 3774 3987, duncanlim@miraeasset.com (%) 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 35.0 해외직접소싱 24.8 할인점 평균 6
, Analyst, 3774 3987, duncanlim@miraeasset.com (%) 발효유 카테고리내 매출비중 20 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 `14년 8월(출시) `14년 4분기 `15년 1분기 `15년 2분기 7
, Analyst, 3774 3987, duncanlim@miraeasset.com (%) PB비중(LHS) EBITDA%(RHS) (%) 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 BGF리테일 GS리테일 세븐 앤 아이 홀딩스 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 8
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, Analyst, 3774 3987, duncanlim@miraeasset.com (단위: 원) CU GS25 롯데백화점 본점 이마트 신라면(5 개입) 3,900 3,900 3,500 3,150 참이슬 후레쉬 1,600 1,600 1,170 1,090 비타 500(묶음) 7,000 7,000 6,000 4,880 백설 중력밀가루(1Kg) 2,300 2,050 1,500 1,180 서울우유 흰우유 2,650 2,650 2,600 2,520 10
, Analyst, 3774 3987, duncanlim@miraeasset.com (%) 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 백화점 편집샵 GPM 전체 GPM 할인점 11
임동근, Analyst, 3774 3987, duncanlim@miraeasset.com 유통 Figure 19 이마트 라이프스타일샵 The Life Figure 20 현대백화점 편집샵 로얄마일 자료: 이마트, 미래에셋증권 리서치센터 자료: 현대백화점, 미래에셋증권 리서치센터 편집샵, 라이프스타일샵 등의 새로운 형태의 매장을 구축한 대표적인 업태는 대형마트와 백화점이다. 우선 대형마트는 가족 테마형 라이프스타일샵, 키덜트 샵 등을 마트 내에 숍인숍으로 런칭하고 있다. 일반적 으로 편집매장은 다품목 소량 판매를 특징으로 해 특정 품목의 대량 판매 대비 소싱 비용이 높아지지만, 대형 마트 편집매장은 매스 고객을 타겟으로 삼아 고객 트래픽을 활용하면서 수익성 훼손을 방어할 수 있다는 장 점이 있다. 직매입 구조 등 기존 운영 구조와의 이질성이 크지 않은 점도 장점이다. 백화점은 기존에 쉽게 접하지 못했던 고급 수입 브랜드 등을 편집샵에 비치하면서 하이엔드 라이프스타일을 지향하고 있다. 그러나 백화점 편집샵이 직매입 구조에 따른 재고관리 비용 증가로 수익성 확보가 어려운데 반해 한정된 소비자 층을 타겟으로 하고 있어 대형마트 대비 규모의 경제 달성이 어렵다는 점은 백화점 업태 의 편집매장 확대를 다소 더디게 하고 있는 요인으로 판단된다. 12
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, Analyst, 3774 3987, duncanlim@miraeasset.com (USD) 27 26 25 26.2 24 23 22 22.7 21 20 기존 회원(로그인) 미가입자 14
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, Analyst, 3774 3987, duncanlim@miraeasset.com (천명) 롯데쇼핑(연결) 신세계/이마트(SSG) 현대백화점 GS리테일 16,000 위메이크프라이스 쿠팡 티켓몬스터 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 16
, Analyst, 3774 3987, duncanlim@miraeasset.com Appendix 17
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, Analyst, 3774 3987, duncanlim@miraeasset.com [AEON] Summary financial statements FY 2012 FY 2013 FY 2014 FY 2015 Sales 65,519 69,224 61,764 60,653 Cost of Revenue 47,810 50,739 45,358 44,520 Gross Profit 17,708 18,485 16,406 16,134 Other Operating Income 7,823 8,525 8,528 8,570 Operating Expenses 22,775 24,398 23,050 23,322 Operating profit (loss) 2,757 2,612 1,884 1,383 Interest Expense 146 150 144 129 Foreign Exchange Losses (Gains) 0 0 0 0 Net Non-Operating Losses (Gains) 664 (167) 119 (163) Pretax Income 1,947 2,629 1,622 1,417 Income Tax Expense 673 1,142 708 640 Income Before XO Items 1,275 1,487 913 776 Extraordinary Loss Net of Tax 0 0 0 0 Minority Interests 334 466 412 365 Net Income 940 1,022 501 411 FY 2012 FY 2013 FY 2014 FY 2015 Market cap.(krw bn) 11,393 9,815 11,039 10,257 Price Earnings Ratio (P/E) 11.83 10.88 22.25 25.48 Price to Book Ratio 0.85 0.80 0.93 0.88 Return on Equity 7.31 7.58 4.23 3.61 Return on Asset 1.71 1.53 0.73 0.57 Payout ratio 26.51 25.40 47.76 56.16 Gross Margin 27.03 26.70 26.56 26.60 Operating Margin 4.21 3.77 3.05 2.28 Net Margin 1.44 1.48 0.81 0.68 FY 2012 FY 2013 FY 2014 FY 2015 Assets Cash & Near Cash Items 2,542 5,380 6,856 7,458 Short-Term Investments 30 2,842 1,778 1,786 Accounts & Notes Receivable 5,217 5,633 8,873 9,247 Inventories 4,703 4,455 4,912 5,124 Other Current Assets 6,438 15,870 15,457 15,162 Total Current Assets 18,929 34,180 37,876 38,776 LT Investments & LT Receivables 2,513 1,334 1,074 1,346 Net Fixed Assets 24,134 22,849 22,884 22,683 Other Long-Term Assets 10,265 9,016 9,616 9,456 Total Long-Term Assets 36,912 33,200 33,574 33,486 Total Assets 55,841 67,380 71,450 72,262 Liabilities & Shareholders' Equity Accounts Payable 8,883 7,452 7,789 8,704 Short-Term Borrowings 5,979 7,486 5,597 5,272 Other Short-Term Liabilities 6,368 19,688 25,040 25,449 Total Current Liabilities 21,230 34,626 38,426 39,424 Long-Term Borrowings 12,435 11,801 10,955 11,692 Other Long-Term Liabilities 4,494 3,916 4,408 4,321 Total Long-Term Liabilities 16,930 15,718 15,363 16,013 Total Liabilities 38,159 50,344 53,789 55,437 Minority Interest 4,758 4,857 5,900 5,716 Share Capital & APIC 6,418 5,478 5,322 4,954 Retained Earnings & Other Equity 6,506 6,701 6,439 6,154 Total Equity 17,682 17,036 17,661 16,825 Total Liabilities & Equity 55,841 67,380 71,450 72,262 19
, Analyst, 3774 3987, duncanlim@miraeasset.com 자료: Seven & I Holdings, 미래에셋증권 리서치센터 20
, Analyst, 3774 3987, duncanlim@miraeasset.com [Seven & I Holdings] Summary financial statements FY 2012 FY 2013 FY 2014 FY 2015 Sales 56,542 56,739 51,430 48,864 Cost of Revenue 43,370 44,011 40,605 38,396 Gross Profit 13,173 12,728 10,825 10,468 Other Operating Income 10,886 11,523 10,472 10,193 Operating Expenses 19,944 20,208 17,564 17,304 Operating profit (loss) 4,114 4,044 3,733 3,358 Interest Expense 98 109 102 91 Foreign Exchange Losses (Gains) 0 0 19 3 Net Non-Operating Losses (Gains) 765 342 191 230 Pretax Income 3,252 3,593 3,421 3,034 Income Tax Expense 1,272 1,516 1,354 1,248 Income Before XO Items 1,980 2,077 2,067 1,785 Extraordinary Loss Net of Tax 0 0 0 0 Minority Interests 151 189 136 94 Net Income 1,829 1,888 1,931 1,692 FY 2012 FY 2013 FY 2014 FY 2015 Market cap.(krw bn) 27,458 28,227 35,436 37,273 Price Earnings Ratio (P/E) 15.3 17.3 19.2 23.4 Price to Book Ratio 1.1 1.3 1.6 1.8 Return on Equity 7.5 7.5 8.8 7.9 Return on Asset 3.4 3.4 3.9 3.4 Payout ratio 42.2 41.0 34.2 37.3 Gross Margin 23.3 22.4 21.0 21.4 Operating Margin 7.3 7.1 7.3 6.9 Net Margin 3.2 3.3 3.8 3.5 FY 2012 FY 2013 FY 2014 FY 2015 Assets Cash & Near Cash Items 9,814 8,366 8,314 8,587 Short-Term Investments 593 1,295 1,573 919 Accounts & Notes Receivable 3,671 3,305 3,371 3,084 Inventories 2,099 1,910 2,119 1,951 Other Current Assets 4,738 4,606 4,539 5,072 Total Current Assets 20,916 19,482 19,915 19,612 LT Investments & LT Receivables 2,516 1,897 1,735 1,389 Net Fixed Assets 18,207 17,446 17,927 17,256 Other Long-Term Assets 12,001 11,334 10,865 9,869 Total Long-Term Assets 32,724 30,677 30,527 28,515 Total Assets 53,640 50,158 50,442 48,127 Liabilities & Shareholders' Equity Accounts Payable 4,359 3,869 4,026 3,793 Short-Term Borrowings 3,694 4,142 2,640 2,549 Other Short-Term Liabilities 11,058 10,047 10,404 10,453 Total Current Liabilities 19,111 18,058 17,070 16,795 Long-Term Borrowings 6,562 6,343 7,673 6,611 Other Long-Term Liabilities 2,301 2,284 2,409 2,371 Total Long-Term Liabilities 8,864 8,627 10,082 8,982 Total Liabilities 27,975 26,685 27,151 25,778 Minority Interest 1,293 1,201 1,299 1,184 Share Capital & APIC 7,973 6,807 6,068 5,332 Retained Earnings & Other Equity 16,400 15,466 15,924 15,834 Total Equity 25,665 23,473 23,291 22,350 Total Liabilities & Equity 53,640 50,158 50,442 48,127 21
임동근, Analyst, 3774 3987, duncanlim@miraeasset.com 유통 Isetan (3099 JP, 일본, 시가총액 3,975 억엔) Isetan 은 2008 년 4 월 미쓰코시 백화점과의 합병을 통해 일본 내 1 위 백화점 업체가 되었으며, 신용카드, 부동산, 금융 사업도 영위하고 있다. 2013 년 3 월 이세탄 신주쿠 본점이 9 개월간의 리모델링을 마치고 오픈했다. 리모델링을 통해 판매 면적을 줄이는 대신 매장 사이에 소파나 넓은 피팅룸을 설치해 고객이 편히 휴식 및 구매를 할 수 있도록 배려했다. 또한 약 90 개의 브랜드가 전개하는 다양한 여성의 라이프스타일을 제안하는 어반 클로젯 등의 쇼핑 존을 구 축하면서, 고객들이 자신만의 라이프스타일에 맞는 쇼핑을 할 수 있도록 리모델링을 하였다. 편집매장 구축 및 상품력 강화를 위해 이세탄 신주쿠점은 직매입 비중을 약 40%까지 확대시켰다. 2016 년 초에는 도쿄 긴자에 시내면세점을 오픈 하였고, 추가 면세점 개점을 추진하고 있다. Isetan 의 2015 년 매출액은 116 억 달러, 영업이익은 3 억 달러(영업이익률 2.6%)였다. Figure 32 이세탄 신주쿠 백화점 자료: Isetan Figure 33 Isetan 매출 구성 Figure 34 매출액 및 영업이익 추이 부동산, 1.3 기타, 1.0 금융, 2.0 전문점, 3.4 (USD bn) (%) 매출액 (LHS) 영업이익 (LHS) OPM (RHS) 18 16 4.0 3.5 14 3.0 12 2.5 10 2.0 8 1.5 6 자료: Bloomberg, 미래에셋증권 리서치센터 2019E 2018E 2017E 2016E 2015 2014 0.0 2013 0 2012 0.5 2011 2 2010 1.0 2009 백화점, 92.3 4 자료: Bloomberg, 미래에셋증권 리서치센터 22
, Analyst, 3774 3987, duncanlim@miraeasset.com [Isetan] Summary financial statements FY 2012 FY 2013 FY 2014 FY 2015 Sales 17,463 16,706 14,400 12,314 Cost of Revenue 12,564 12,011 10,368 8,873 Gross Profit 4,898 4,694 4,032 3,441 Other Operating Income 0 0 0 0 Operating Expenses 4,562 4,334 3,655 3,120 Operating profit (loss) 336 360 378 320 Interest Expense 24 20 14 12 Foreign Exchange Losses (Gains) 0 0 0 0 Net Non-Operating Losses (Gains) (50) 35 0 39 Pretax Income 361 305 363 269 Income Tax Expense (478) (45) 127 (19) Income Before XO Items 840 350 236 289 Extraordinary Loss Net of Tax 0 0 0 0 Minority Interests 10 8 6 0 Net Income 829 342 231 289 FY 2012 FY 2013 FY 2014 FY 2015 Market cap.(krw bn) 5,258 6,335 5,183 7,257 Price Earnings Ratio (P/E) 6.5 21.2 23.7 26.2 Price to Book Ratio 0.8 1.1 1.0 1.4 Return on Equity 13.6 5.3 4.2 5.5 Return on Asset 4.8 2.1 1.7 2.3 Payout ratio 6.7 15.6 20.5 14.5 Gross Margin 28.0 28.1 28.0 27.9 Operating Margin 1.9 2.2 2.6 2.6 Net Margin 4.7 2.0 1.6 2.3 FY 2012 FY 2013 FY 2014 FY 2015 Assets Cash & Near Cash Items 536 456 568 544 Short-Term Investments 4 2 8 15 Accounts & Notes Receivable 1,404 1,275 1,400 1,138 Inventories 768 660 592 552 Other Current Assets 854 594 520 490 Total Current Assets 3,566 2,988 3,087 2,738 LT Investments & LT Receivables 421 443 367 401 Net Fixed Assets 10,055 8,610 7,553 6,758 Other Long-Term Assets 2,787 2,418 2,229 2,042 Total Long-Term Assets 13,262 11,471 10,148 9,200 Total Assets 16,828 14,459 13,235 11,938 Liabilities & Shareholders' Equity Accounts Payable 1,532 1,364 1,385 1,145 Short-Term Borrowings 659 1,212 835 583 Other Short-Term Liabilities 3,333 2,464 2,268 2,002 Total Current Liabilities 5,524 5,041 4,487 3,730 Long-Term Borrowings 1,760 959 955 925 Other Long-Term Liabilities 3,124 2,490 2,218 1,945 Total Long-Term Liabilities 4,884 3,449 3,173 2,869 Total Liabilities 10,408 8,490 7,661 6,599 Minority Interest 146 150 155 145 Share Capital & APIC 5,158 4,450 3,882 3,484 Retained Earnings & Other Equity 1,116 1,368 1,538 1,710 Total Equity 6,420 5,969 5,574 5,339 Total Liabilities & Equity 16,828 14,459 13,235 11,938 23
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, Analyst, 3774 3987, duncanlim@miraeasset.com [Amazon] Summary financial statements FY 2012 FY 2013 FY 2014 FY 2015 Sales 68,821 81,510 93,734 121,157 Cost of Revenue 51,786 59,318 66,099 81,126 Gross Profit 17,035 22,193 27,635 40,031 Other Operating Income 0 0 0 0 Operating Expenses 16,273 21,377 27,448 37,502 Operating profit (loss) 762 816 187 2,528 Interest Expense 104 154 221 520 Foreign Exchange Losses (Gains) 0 0 0 0 Net Non-Operating Losses (Gains) 45 107 83 233 Pretax Income 613 554 (117) 1,775 Income Tax Expense 482 176 176 1,076 Income Before XO Items (44) 300 (254) 675 Extraordinary Loss Net of Tax 0 0 0 0 Minority Interests 0 0 0 0 Net Income (44) 300 (254) 675 FY 2012 FY 2013 FY 2014 FY 2015 Market cap.(krw bn) 120,878 192,187 157,072 372,553 Price Earnings Ratio (P/E) 662.7 649.1 n/a 537.8 Price to Book Ratio 13.9 18.8 13.4 23.8 Return on Equity (0.5) 3.1 (2.4) 4.9 Return on Asset (0.1) 0.8 (0.5) 1.0 Payout ratio 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Gross Margin 24.8 27.2 29.5 33.0 Operating Margin 1.1 1.0 0.2 2.1 Net Margin (0.1) 0.4 (0.3) 0.6 FY 2012 FY 2013 FY 2014 FY 2015 Assets Cash & Near Cash Items 8,599 9,116 15,912 18,685 Short-Term Investments 3,579 3,989 3,125 4,607 Accounts & Notes Receivable 3,579 5,019 6,135 7,553 Inventories 6,416 7,803 9,072 12,044 Other Current Assets 482 0 0 0 Total Current Assets 22,654 25,926 34,244 42,889 LT Investments & LT Receivables 0 0 0 0 Net Fixed Assets 7,510 11,528 18,547 25,679 Other Long-Term Assets 4,467 4,827 6,789 8,386 Total Long-Term Assets 11,977 16,355 25,336 34,065 Total Assets 34,630 42,281 59,579 76,954 Liabilities & Shareholders' Equity Accounts Payable 14,167 15,933 17,991 23,984 Short-Term Borrowings 1,206 1,798 3,935 3,956 Other Short-Term Liabilities 4,840 6,463 8,778 11,921 Total Current Liabilities 20,213 24,195 30,704 39,861 Long-Term Borrowings 4,074 5,455 13,652 16,677 Other Long-Term Liabilities 1,629 2,371 3,483 4,678 Total Long-Term Liabilities 5,703 7,826 17,134 21,355 Total Liabilities 25,916 32,020 47,838 61,216 Minority Interest 0 0 0 0 Share Capital & APIC 8,884 10,084 12,177 15,756 Retained Earnings & Other Equity (170) 177 (436) (18) Total Equity 8,714 10,261 11,741 15,738 Total Liabilities & Equity 34,630 42,281 59,579 76,954 25
, Analyst, 3774 3987, duncanlim@miraeasset.com Recommendations Compliance Notice Distribution of Ratings 26