2003 2002 12
< Summary > < > 1 5 1 5 2 7 3 13 18 1 18 2 20 3 22 4 24 5 25 6 29 7 33 200339 1 39 2 43 3 47 4 IT 50 5, 53 6 2/4 56 7 58 8 61 9 63 10 67 69
2003 IT,, 30% 2002 56% 52% 6%,, () 2002,,, 2003 IT, 9%, < Summary >
,, 3%, 2001 2002 2003 GDP (%) 30 60 52 60 56 42 68 32 62 47 58 25 22 48 36-98 58 50 138 92 (, ) 1,504 1,621 834 940 1,774 (%) -127 78 98 90 94 (, ) 1,411 1,509 797 902 1,698 (%) -121 69 124 127 126 ( ) 93 113 37 38 76 ( ) 86 70-2 -4-6 (%) 41 27 31 33 32 (%) 19 17 29 14 22 (%) 37 30 35 28 31 / ( ) 1,292 1,252 1,185 1,205 1,195 (%, ) 71 66 61 65 63
2002 61% 3/4 3/4 58% 2 115 < I-1> 110 199710~199911 105 100 19923~19944 20009~200210( ) 19889~199010 95-14 -12-10 -8-6 -4-2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 ( ) : (100),,, 3/4 20004/4 Current Issue 1
(%p) 15 12 9 6 < I-2> 3 0-3 -6-9 20011Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 20021Q 2Q 3Q, 2/4 68% 3/4 67% 10 127% 10 24% 200112 75% (10756%) 52% 3/4 77%,,, 2 2003
67% 3/4 183%, 10 25%, IT,,,,, EU 11 27%,,, Current Issue 3
4 2003 10,, 10 580 12 750 10 1,260 / 1,210
1 OECD 200111 1 ( / ) 4, 6 < II-1> OECD (1995=100) ( ) 130 103 () () 1 110 097 90 094 70 () 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 : ( ) / ( ) : OECD 091 088 2001 911, 2000 IT Current Issue 5
6 2003, IT IT 10,, 2003 2003 30%
< II-2> (%) 5 4 42 47 3 2 1 36 28 1995~2000 22 27 30 0 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 (%) 20 15 10 5 0 < II-3> 21 88 61-5 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2 2003, 2002 Current Issue 7
8 2003 20014 7 2002 3 01%, 70% - 1%, - 2002, 2003 25% 20023/4 3%, 2003 2%
2002, 2003 < II-1> 2001 2002 2003 ( : %) 22 27 29 31 30 08 15 20 21 20 03 22 23 27 25 03-03 12 04 08 EU 16 08 12 16 14 37 40 45 48 46 70 78 77 75 76 41 51 60 56 58 27 39 42 44 43 06-06 17 23 20 15 20 22 28 25 35 31 38 42 40 50 37 42 49 45 : 2002, 2003 IMF, EIU 2001 IMF ( ) 2003 2003 12%, 04% 08% Current Issue 9
EU 2002 08%, 2003 14% 3/4 EU 09%, 2/4 08% EU, 2003, 2002 04% EU, 2003 EU 10% GDP3%, 2003 2003 18%, 22% < II-2> EU 2001 2002 2003 ( : %) EU 16 08 12 16 14 06 04 08 11 10 18 10 15 20 18 20 16 21 23 22 10 2003
Current Issue 11 2002,, 8%, 2003 7%, WTO, 2003 75% 2002 4%, 2003 4%, (AFTA), 2003
< II-3> 2001 2002 2003 ( : %) 27 39 42 44 43 33 33 35 37 36 18 40 39 45 42 32 40 43 41 42 05 40 52 46 49 50 60 64 70 67 41 51 60 56 58 : 2002, 2003 IMF, EIU 2002 14 5% 2003 6%, 2003 2003, 2002 2002, 2002-06%, 2003 20% 12 2003
2002 EU 37%, 2003 45% 2002 40%, 2003, 49%, 2002 26%, 2003 38% <II-4> 2001 2002 2003 ( : %) 50 37 42 49 45 50 40 45 52 49 30 26 33 42 38 3 20024 8 10 120 Current Issue 13
2002 2/4 3/4 09 7 1 11 1 < II-4> (%) 100 80 60 40 20 0 20027 8 9 10 : Merrill Lynch 2003 / 2002 125 120 2003 - - IT 14 2003
/ 115 / 150~160, (Beggar-my-neighbor) < II-5> 2002 2003 / 1294 1215 1254 1190 1210 1200 / 090 099 095 102 102 102 ( ) 15000 12000 < II-5> / / (/ ) 140 130 9000 6000 3000 120 110 100 90 0 20001 6 20011 6 20021 6 80 2003 - Current Issue 15
16 2003 01% 2003 2003 125% 2003, 2003 911 1%p
< II-6> GDP 12 20 9 16 6 3 GDP () 12 8 0-3 () 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 4 0 <II-6> LIBOR(3 ) 2002 2003 19 17 18 15 25 20 01 01 01 01 01 01 35 32 34 30 38 34 51 41 46 42 50 46 Current Issue 17
1 20024/4 60% 60% 4/4 5% 20% 2003 2002 56% 52% 6% < III-1> 2001 2002 2003 GDP (%) 30 61 59 60 52 60 56 37 71 51 63 31 57 44 42 80 55 68 32 62 47-17 60 21 39 36 85 61 58 66-07 25 22 48 36-98 52 63 58 50 138 92 ( ) 10 67 202 134 138 71 103 ( ) -28 125 176 151 99 169 135 18 2003
, IT,, (Double Dip), IT EU, 2002 2003 2002 (GNI) (GDP) 2002 < III-1> vs (%) 75 6 45 3 15 0 2001 2002 Current Issue 19
2 2002 2002 4/4, 11 5 934,, 11 2 1~10 1/3 10 7% 3/4 05% 02% 2/4 11% 6 4/4 5% 2003,, () 2002 68% 47% 2003 3% 6% 20 2003
,,, 20023/4 2003 5%, 6% 2003 < III-2> (%) (%) 20 15 10 0-10 -20 () 10 5 0-5 () 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003-10 -15 : = ( / ) 2002 2003 3/4 721% 2003 1990 726% Current Issue 21
22 2003 3 20026% 2003 9% 2003 -,, 12 ( )2002 29% 3/469% 200251430 (BSI)6 200212 956 2003 2002 75% 1%p 1980 763%
< III-3> (%) (%) 30 80 20 10 0-10 -20 () () 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 60 40 20 0-20 -40-60 : = 2003 2003, 2, 2003 2003 20003/4 154% 20023/4 0% 2002 2003 2002 ( ) Current Issue 23
4 2002 2001 2002 66% 3/4 38% 3/495% 20%,, 150% 20024/4 41 55, 2003 36% 2002(110) 736%1976, 2003 60% 2003 668% 3/4 185%, 375% 3/4 102%,,, 2003,, 24 2003
2003 5% 2003 SOC 48%,,, SOC 2003 (%) 120 < III-4> 90 60 30 0-30 -60 2000 2001 2002 5, 2001 Current Issue 25
2001 3 20024 10 25% 2001 (2001 : -197%), IT,, ASEAN,, EU 5% < III-5> -12 157 69 125 55 89 48 105 43 32 72 22 10 14-15 91 219 164 193 390 ( : %) 2002 2003 EU -91-10 70 55 63 51 61 33 05 130 162 292 ( : %) 2002 2003 : 26 2003
2003 IT, 9% OECD ( ) 20% IT,,, < III-6> OECD (%) ( %) 8 30 () 6 20 4 2 0-2 -4-6 OECD () 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 : 3 10 0-10 -20-30 Current Issue 27
< III-2> 2001 2002 2003 (, ) 1,504 759 862 1,621 1,774 (%) -127-32 198 78 94 (, ) 1,411 709 800 1,509 1,698 (%) -121-24 168 69 126 ( ) 93 50 62 113 76 ( ) 86 36 34 70-6 134 77 70 147 98-48 -41-36 -77-104 2002 23% 3/4 135%, 1011 201% 221%, (%) 80 < III-7> 60 40 20 0-20 -40-60 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 : : 28 2003
Current Issue 29 2003 2002 12% (2001510%) 2002 2002 2 15 60 2003, 6 2002 2001 37% 30% 2002 18%(111 ) 25% 20025 3%
08% 200211 98%, 1%p 37% / 200211 478% 75% (%) 15 < III-8> 10 5 0-5 2001 1/4 2/4 3/4 4/4 2002 1/4 2/4 3/4 4/4 2003 2002 2002 2003 2003 2002 1% 30 2003
2002 9% 2003 2003, < III-3> 2001 2002 2003 (%) 41 26 29 27 31 33 32 (%) 19 05 28 17 29 14 22 (%) 37 33 27 30 35 28 31 (, %) 52 97 94 95 77 85 81 3% 2002 200141%14%p 27% 2002 2002111 58%, 36% Current Issue 31
32 2003 2002 2% 200175%, / 2002111-13% 14% 2003,, 3% 2002 2003 2003 2002 2003, 2002 2003 2003
( GDP- GDP) -, < III-9> / (%) (%) 10 100 8 6 4 2 0 / () () 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 80 60 40 20 0-20 -40 7 2002/ 1,294 1,210 4 1,300 / 7 1,165 10 12 1,200 / 4 100 1,00020 Current Issue 33
, / 2003, 1,200 / 98 () 1800 < III-9> () 180 1500 1200 900 600 300 0 / () / () 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 150 120 90 60 30 0 100 1,000 / / 34 2003
/ 1,210 1,230 4 < III-10> (%) (%) 6 20 () 10 2 0-2 -4-6 () 2000 2001 2002 0-10 -20-30 -40 <III-5> 2002 2003 / 1,294 1,210 1,252 1,185 1,205 1,195 /100 998 997 997 996 996 996 / 1,194 1,197 1,196 1,209 1,229 1,219 2003 2003 2003 Current Issue 35
36 2003 2003 2002 2003 173 20033 < III-11> -6-3 0 3 6 9 20011 7 20021 7 ( ) : 2003, ABS
< III-12> ( ) 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 2001 2002 2003 : fn-gidecom,, 2003 2002 M3( ) 12%, 2003 61% 65% CP, Current Issue 37
< III-6> 2001 2002 2003 (, %) (3 ) 57 62 54 58 54 57 56 (3, AA- ) 71 70 61 66 61 65 63 CP (3 ) 55 48 49 49 50 53 52 38 2003
Current Issue 39 2003 1 2002, 2002, 2003, - (debt deflation) GDP173%(20022 ), GDP162%(2001 ) ( )
,,, 20023 GDP 11%( ) 20014 40 (-05%) (%) 4 < IV-1> 3 2 1 0-1 -2 20011 5 9 20021 5 9 :, 40 2003
10%, 2001 15% 2002 3~4%, 20 8~10%, 1990 1~2%,, 1996~2002 27%, 1990~1995 15%, 2002 86%, 17%, 51%( ),, 1990, GDP GDP 13%(1995-2002 ), 105%(20029 ) Current Issue 41
1990 7 20023 (01%), 20022, 6% (refinancing),, 11,, 2003 1~2% (disinflation) GDP40% 3%, 2003 (3~35%) 2%, 1~2% 2003 42 2003
EU,,, 20029 1%( ) - EU (ECB) 2003 2003, 2003 30% 2,, 2003 Current Issue 43
44 2003,, UN UN, 20031/4 1991117 30 22,, 13, 1990 IT,
Current Issue 45 100150 (160 ), 3,,,,,,, UN
( / ) 40 30 < IV-2> (WTI) 20 10 0 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 :,,,,,,, 46 2003
Current Issue 47 3 2002 20023 135,, 1990,,
2003 < IV-3> ( : ) 4873 - - - 4873 332 668 - - 1000 108 90 39-238 49 64 - - 112 : ( ) 2002 3 : 135 1990 199310 19975 19991 200010 1993/1996 20%, 1999/2000 09%, 2002 0%, 1997 2003 48 2003
199798 2003 (%) 100 80 < IV-4> 60 40 20 0 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 : DI(Difusion Index : 0~100%) 50% 122 1 150160 20% 1, Current Issue 49
150160, 2003 4 IT IT IT 2002, 2003 58% IT, IDC2002 IT 23% 8,570 2002 IT IDC 2001 IT 4 2003IT,, IT IT IT 2002 9% 2003 22% 2003PC 93%, 55%, 179%, 127% 50 2003
IT PC, 2002 1%, 4%, 2002 2003 IT, 2002 2003 2003 PC, 2002 2003 < IV-5> IT (%) 10 5 15 45 45 5 37 25 0-5 -23-10 -8 2002 2003-15 -20-14 PC : IDC -15 2001 32% 1,247, 2002 53% 2003 IT 152% 1,477 Current Issue 51
2000 1500 1000 < IV-6> ( ) (%) ( ) ( ) D-RAM( ) D-RAM( ) -32 360 295 53 152 100 50 0 500 0-62 2001 2002 2003-50 -100 :,, : (WSTS) 2003 89%, 13% 124%( ),,, < IV-7> (2003, ) (%) 15 10 124 5 0-5 -10-15 -113-83 -111-01 -52 / : Gartner dataqueset 40 52 2003
IT 20023 2003,,, IT 100% IT IT 2 IT 5,, 2003 WTO, (Free Trade Agreement ; FTA) (ASEAN) FTA 1997, 50%, 1992 (AFTA), Current Issue 53
2003 5%, 2003 3% 20062010 (,,, ), 2010, 2015 < IV-8> (%) 50 476 45 40 413 35 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 : KOTIS AFTA AFTA, AFTA 200211 +, + 10, 2004 AFTA, 54 2003
FTA AFTA 1998 FTA, 200210 FTA, FTA FTA FTA 7 FTA,,, 2003 200211, + 3(,, ) FTA, FTA, FTA FTA WTO, ' (DDA)' FTA Current Issue 55
, 6 20032/4 2003,, EU (Double-Dip),,, 3/4 58% 6% 20026~9 3 2 2002 2003 2003 56%, 52% 2003 3/4 61%, 02%, 56 2003
,, 4/4 2003 2003 ( ) 2003, 2003 2002 IT,, EU 2003 10%, 10%, Current Issue 57
2/4,, 7 2003 2002 20022/4 2003, LG 20021/4 163 4/4 1725 < IV-9> (1995=100) 250 200 150 2441 1868 1788 1725 1810 1633 100 50 0 1977 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 : /,, / 58 2003
Current Issue 59 2003, 2002 05%p GDP 75% 2002 112% (= / )2003 114%, 05%p 119% ( 2002 138% ) 2002-200% 20% ( ) 200193% 20021/43/4102%
, 2003 500 < IV-10> (%) 50 40 397 369 389 444 390 370 388 410 30 20 261 265 277 274 204 184 186 202 10 0-10 15 15 19-76 -154-90 -93-102 -20 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 : 20%, 20%, 60%, 2002 1/43/4 :, 2003, 60 2003
Current Issue 61 8, (200111), (20019), (200212) 5 679% 705% 50%,, ( ) (Private Banking),,, 1
62 2003, 50% ABS( ), REITs( ) ABS 1 20038 One-stop shopping
Current Issue 63,,,,,, 9 2003
GDP 2003 2002 61% 57% < IV-11> GDP 40 30 20 GDP 10 0 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 : 1 GDP GDP 2 2002 2003 : 2003 (200283% 200380%) 2002 64 2003
Current Issue 65,, 2002 200268% 2003 71%,, 2003 2002
(2001 367% 2002 3 192%), 10% (2001 156% 272%) 1 < IV-12> 28 43 47 73 166 106 109 211 307 93 144 17 165 341 312 152 62 57 78 133 139 136 199 223 313 1999 2000 2001 2002 : 2002 3/4 11 33 49 20% 10%~20% 5%~10% 0%~5% -10%~0% -20%~-10% -20% 2002 2003 66 2003
Current Issue 67 10 2002 20029, ' ' 10 ' ', 11 ' ' 20029, 200210 1994, 2003 1994 ' '(Agreed Framework),,, 2003,
68 2003,,,,,, 23,,,,,,,
Current Issue 69
V 2003 2002,, EU,,,, 70 2003
,, 2003, 2002 2003, 2003,,, Current Issue 71
20035,,,,, 5 5,,, 5,, 72 2003
,, (remodeling) (FTA), Current Issue 73