가족계획실천율 가족계획실천자 세 유배우부인
조출생률 년간 총출생아수 연앙인구수
일반출산율 년간 총출생아수 가임연령 여자연앙인구수 합계출산율 세 연령층 여성이 출산한 출생아수 세 연령층 여성의 연앙인구수 즉 합계출산율
합 6 계 출 산 율 5 4 3 2 1 1960 1973 1977 1981 1985 1989 1993 1997 2001 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999 시점
남 자 80+ 70대 60대 50대 40대 30대 20대 10대 0-9 여 자 180 150 (인구천명당) 120 90 1992년 60 30 2002년 0 0 30 60 90 120 150 180 1992년 2002년 (인구천명당)
% 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 1970 1976 1982 1988 1994 2000 1973 1979 1985 1991 1997 시점
ABSTRACT A Study of Fertility Decline Factors in Korea By Pyoung-Ill Park (Advisor: Prof. Kyung-Eun Lee) The demographic transition from a society characterized with high fertility and mortality to the one with lower rates in the modernization process is of particular interest for an in-depth analysis because of its policy implications for a near-developed country like South Korea. A rapid and persistent decline in fertility began to occur in the early 1960s when South Korea joined the group of developing nations so that her real per capita GNI and urbanization strikingly increased yearly. This study examined the yearly data from 1970 to 2002 when Korea experienced a precipitous drop in total fertility rates, i.e., finding out which factors affecting such a continuously decreasing total fertility rate. For this purpose, this study adopted the Hermalin's Model is to understand the forces affecting the fertility history in Korea. This model allowed the author to hypothesize that population, social-economic and contraceptive factors created an environment in which the demand for children continuously tended to decline. To investigate population, social-economic and contraceptive factors in the Korean fertility history, an analytical framework of fertility behavior was necessary for the understanding of the theoretical correlation between total fertility rate and relevant factors. The multiple regression analysis and the path analysis were used to examine the effects of population, social-economic and contraceptive factors on total fertility rate. The multiple regression analysis resulted in that positive crude death rate, negative contraceptive practice rate, negative per capita GNI, negative crude divorce rate, negative population density, negative urbanization rate respectively affected, statistically and significantly, the continuously decreasing total fertility in Korea.