An Analysis of the Changes in the Cause-and-Effect Relationships between Socio-Economic Indicators and the Road Network of Seoul Using Structural Equation Model* Junghee Kim** 1977 2006 1980 1970 1980 1990 2006 Abstract The purpose of this study is to analyze cause-and-effect relationships between patterns of the road network and socio-economic factors such as population, industry, and land use of Seoul during the period of 1970~2000. In this study, Structural Equation Model (SEM) is used to estimate simultaneously the cause-and-effect relationships between many independent variables and dependent variables. For the observed variables, variables related to population, industry, land price, land use, and road variables were included; these variables were classified by exploratory factor analysis. The analysis using the SEM showed that the structure of the model changed around the 1980 s. In general, socio-economic factors such as population, industry, and land use affected construction of the road network of the city during the 1970 s and the 1980 s. Especially, it was analyzed that the industrial development had the greatest impact on formation of the road network. In the 1990 s, the effect that the road network exerts on socio-economic factors proved to be more appropriate than the other way round. At that time, the road-related factors had the greatest effect on the land price and industrial development, and that tendency has continued until now. : Structural Equation Model (SEM), exploratory factor analysis, cause-and-effect relationship, road network, socio-economic factor (Adjunct professor, Department of Geoinformatic Engineering, Namseoul University), bear0819@paran.com 797
1974 (Bourne, 1982, 28) (Park, 1952, 224) 2007329 334 2 3 200637 Baerwald(1978) 2006 2004 (inner city) 798
(Bourne, 1991) Thompson(197793 97) (full motorisation strategy)(weak center strategy) (strong center strategy) (low-cost strategy) 200738 2005112 113 1970 30 1 1970 2000 2 (Structural Equation Model: SEM) 1970 Jöreskog(1973) LISREL 2007 5 2007, 3 799
SPSS AMOS 6 0 (Abramson et al., 2005, 566) 1977 1987 1997 2006 1 1 2 3 1982 800
Giuliano(1995310 341) 3 1970 2000 30 1970 1980 4 1 1977 10 1987 1997 2006 2 1977 1987 19972006 (POP) x 1 x 3 x 5 15 64 x 7 x 2 x 4 x 6 65 x 8 1 x 9 1 (IND) x 10 2 x 11 2 x 12 3 x 13 3 (LAND) x 14 x 16 x 15 x 17 x 18 x 19 (ROAD) x 20 x 21 x 22 4 1977198719972006 801
ESRI Erdas Imagine 9 0 ArcGIS 9 2 Landsat 3 1 3 VBA Script 1978 2 13 1 1987 1990 19771987 1987 12 2 1975 802
19942000 3 GIS 0 4 0 5 KMO(Kaiser-Meyer-Olkin) Bartlett 22 1977 22 5 17 2 1 5 KMO 0 771 Bartlett 0 00 0 05 4 1977 4 17 803
x 2 0 963 0 967 x 3 0 957 0 964 x 5 0 979 0 974 5 140 30 234 30 234 x 6 0 966 0 936 x 7 0 965 0 968 x 4 0 640 0 697 x 14 0 740 0 615 x 15 0 806 0 678 x 16 0 802 0 778 x 10 0 898 0 830 x 11 0 789 0 676 x 12 0 749 0 595 x 13 0 779 0 748 x 18 0 684 0 916 x 19 0 792 0 799 x 21 0 608 0 811 x 22 0 685 0 896 3 687 21 689 51 923 2 896 17 038 68 961 2 067 12 158 81 119 KMO0 771 2 2540 413 df136 sig.(p)0 000 x 2 0 936 0 928 x 3 0 918 0 877 x 5 0 923 0 893 4 163 27 751 27 751 x 6 0 859 0 770 x 7 0 825 0 705 x 18 0 919 0 929 x 19 0 848 0 763 x 21 0 699 0 518 x 22 0 916 0 899 x 10 0 825 0 723 x 11 0 732 0 542 x 12 0 818 0 697 x 13 0 818 0 691 x 4 0 852 0 814 x 16 0 882 0 831 3 126 20 841 48 592 2 731 18 206 66 798 1 570 10 470 77 268 KMO0 718 2 5961 302 df105 sig.(p)0 000 x 2 0 988 0 981 x 3 0 985 0 976 x 5 0 988 0 978 4 979 29 288 29 288 x 6 0 903 0 829 x 7 0 980 0 964 x 18 0 961 0 951 x 19 0 927 0 867 x 21 0 503 0 575 x 22 0 905 0 903 x 10 0 788 0 682 x 11 0 802 0 668 x 12 0 799 0 688 x 13 0 706 0 708 x 14 0 683 0 689 x 15 0 868 0 770 x 4 0 762 0 774 x 16 0 870 0 836 2 942 17 304 46 592 2 721 16 005 62 596 1 781 10 474 73 070 1 417 8 337 81 408 KMO0 782 2 10529 325 df136 sig.(p)0 000 x 2 0 988 0 979 x 3 0 990 0 984 x 5 0 991 0 985 4 193 28 899 28 899 x 6 0 890 0 827 x 7 0 972 0 951 x 10 0 826 0 730 x 11 0 874 0 765 x 12 0 832 0 757 x 13 0 772 0 765 x 18 0 967 0 951 x 19 0 900 0 829 x 21 0 502 0 504 x 22 0 919 0 897 2 936 17 273 46 172 2 899 17 055 63 226 x 14 0 857 0 822 x 15 0 902 0 816 2 001 11 773 75 000 x 4 0 692 0 673 x 16 0 860 0 788 1 273 7 491 82 491 KMO0 720 2 11836 154 df136 sig.(p)0 000 804
5 140 3 687 2 896 2 067 4 81 30 12 4 0 712 1987 22 7 15 4 1633 1262 731 1 570 3 4 77 27 10 1977 20 0 053 0 004 0 539 1997 5 17 4 4 9792 9422 7211 781 1 417 1987 0 470 5 81 29 2006 5 17 5 4 9132 9362 899 2 0011 273 5 82 1997 29 17 17 2 3 4 5 (Hu and Bentler, 1995) 1 2 4 0 05 GFI AGFI 1 00 NFI CFI 0 90 805
RMR 0 05 1977 1 GFI AGFI 0 780 0 686 2 2 268 381 p 0 05 6 AIC 1 2 2 1 96 1 96 7 t 7 521 1 96 2 248 t 4 57 1 962 3 t 3 935 1 96 3 0 53 5 2 3 0 41 1977 806
1 2 291.969 2 268.381 107 df 105 0.000 P 0.000 2.729 Q 2.556 0.780 GFI 0.924 0.686 AGFI 0.890 0.020 RMR 0.023 0.902 NFI 0.910 0.935 CFI 0.942 383.969 AIC 364.381 1 2 688.003 2 810.365 96 df 94 0.000 P 0.000 7.167 Q 8.621 0.892 GFI 0.856 0.827 AGFI 0.765 0.017 RMR 0.032 0.946 NFI 0.937 0.953 CFI 0.943 802.003 AIC 928.365 1 2 715.456 2 406.074 83 df 77 0.000 P 0.000 8.620 Q 5.274 0.828 GFI 0.899 0.751 AGFI 0.842 0.051 RMR 0.047 0.914 NFI 0.951 0.923 CFI 0.960 789.456 AIC 492.074 1 2 661.900 2 883.542 87 df 87 0.000 P 0.000 7.608 Q 10.156 0.894 GFI 0.839 0.813 AGFI 0.749 0.012 RMR 0.012 0.955 NFI 0.922 0.961 CFI 0.929 793.900 AIC 981.542 2 df P Q(x2/df)GFI AGFI RMR NFI NFI CFI AIC P 2 983 0 397 7 521 0 000 1977 2 248 0 492 4 570 0 000 1 072 0 272 3 935 0 000 2 116 0 176 12 059 0 000 1987 0 831 0 135 6 171 0 000 0 369 0 75 4 905 0 000 1997 2006 0 007 0 004 1 830 0 067 0 021 0 004 5 340 0 000 0 011 0 002 5 585 0 000 2 482 0 523 4 742 0 000 0 002 0 006 0 402 0 688 0 054 0 009 6 020 0 000 0 015 0 003 4 426 0 000 0 002 0 001 1 845 0 065 807
1987 1 GFI AGFI 0 828 0 751 2 2 406 074 p 0 05 453 AIC 1 2 1970 1980 0 52 2 3 0 28 1970 0 13 0 20 1997 1 GFI AGFI 0 892 0 827 0 9 808
NFI 0 946 CFI 0 953 GFI 0 856AGFI 0 765 2 AIC 2 1 1 2 688 003 2 2 810 365 530 1990 2 3 0 29 0 24 0 20 2006 1 GFI AGFI 0 894 0 813 0 9 NFI 0 955CFI 0 961 GFI 0 839AGFI 0 749 2 AIC 2 1 2000 2 3 0 28 0 22 1977 2006 1980 1970 1980 1990 1980 2 3 809
2006 Thompson(1977) 1990 1982 2 1 (Hillier and Hanson, 1984, 52 82) Hillier(2002) 2 (local integration value) 3 810
(Goodness of Fit Index: GFI) (Adjusted GFI: AGFI) (Root Mean-Square Residual: RMSR) 2007 GFI 0 00 1 00 AGFI 1 00 (Jöreskog and Sörbom, 1993)RMSR (cell) RMSR RMR 0 05 4 (Normed Fit Index: NFI) (Comparative Fit Index: CFI) NFI 500 CFI 0 90 5 (Parsimonious Goodness-of-Fit Index: PGFI) (Akaike Information Criteria: AIC) PGFI 1 00 (Cliff and Ord, 1981)AIC 2007New AMOS 16.0 2007 2006 2005 2007 AMOS 6 0 2004 2006 13 2 1-22 1974 1982 Abramson, R., Rahman, S., and Buckley, P., 2005, Tricks and traps in Structural Equation Modelling: a GEM Australia example using AMOS Graphics, Proceedings of ABBSA Conference. Baerwald, T. J., 1978, The emergence of a new downtown, Geographical Review, 68(3), 308-318. Bourne, L. S.(ed.), 1982, Internal Structure of the City: Readings on Urban Form, Growth, and Policy, 2nd Edition, Oxford University Press, New York. Bourne, L. S., 1991, The roepke lecture in economic geography recycling urban systems and metropolitan, Economic Geography, 67(3), 185-209. Cliff, A. D. and Ord, J. K., 1981, Spatial Processes: Models and Applications, Pion, London. Giuliano, G., 1995, Land Use Impacts of Transportation Investments: Highway and Transit. in Geography of Urban Transportation, 2nd Edition, Guilford Press, New York. Hillier, B., 2002, A theory of the city as object, Urban Design International, 7, 153-199. Hillier, B. and Hanson, J., 1984, The Social Logic of Space, University of Cambridge Press, Cambridge. Hu, L. T. and Bentler, P. M., 1995, Evaluating model fit, in Hoyle, R. H.(ed.), Structural Equation 811
Modelling: Concepts, Issues and Applications, Thousand Oaks, Sage, CA, 76-99. Jöreskog, K. G., 1973, A general method for estimating a linear structural equation system, in Goldberger, A. S. and Duncan, O. D.(eds.), Structural Equation Models in the Social Sciences, Seminar Press, New York. Jöreskog, K. G. and Söbom, D., 1993, LISREL 8: Structural Equation Modelling with the SIMPLIS Command Language, Chicago Software International, Chicago. Park, R. E., 1952, Human Communities, Free Press, New York. Thompson, M., 1977, Great Cities and Their Traffic, Peregrine, London. 330-707 21 bear0819@paran. com010-4549-8273) correspondence: Junghee Kim, Department of Geoinfomatic Engineering, Namseoul University, 21 Maeju-ri, Seonghwan-eup, Cheonan-city, Choongnam, 330-707, Korea(e-mail: bear0819@paran.com, phone: +82-10-4549-8273) 812