u pdf

Size: px

Start display at page:

Download "u pdf"

태조 묵
5 years ago
Views:

1 : (2000) J. Chinju Nat. Univ. 39 : (2000) * Eva lua t ion of Ve nture Bus ines s of Korea 's Ve nture Ca pita ls Sung- Sik Ba hn Abstract Venture Capitalist s(vcs) are considered expert s in identifying high- potential new ventures. VC- backed ventures survive at a much higher rate than those ventures backed by other sources. VCs need to efficiently screen venture proposals without unduly rejecting high potential investment. T he primary purpose of this study is to examine evaluation of venture business of Korea ' s venture capitals. First, this study explained process of growth environment and investment evaluation of venture business of Korea ' s VCs, review ed evaluation methods of venture business and analy sed case to evaluation of venture business of Korea ' s VCs. Venture evaluation needs to apply a wide variety of evaluation methods as comparative analy sis approach, intrinsic value approach, and option pricing model approach etc. as w ell as discounted cash flow with factor s of quality and quantity. And there is also needs to apply of evaluation methods as business division, industry and growth stage. Key w ords venture bu siness, venture evaluation, Korea ' s venture capitals (venture business ) (venture capital) * (D ep t. of B us iness A dm inis tration, Chinj u N ational Univers ity. Chinj u , K orea)

2 234.,..., M&A.. M&A,,... 2, , George F. Dorit ARDC(American Research and Development Corporation). 1960,,..,. (economic trend).,,....

3 235..,. (fund).,,,,,, Massachusetts Route 128 Silicon Valley (, 1998) (K- TAC), 1981 (KT DC; KT B) (KDIC), 1984 (KT F C) ,,, 1). ( ),,. ( ).,. ( ),.,. (1996- ). KOSDAQ, pre- IPO (hedge fund).,.. KOSDAQ. 2. 1) 1), 2000,, (2000.7), pp.5-8.

4 236 3.,., (due diligence).,. (negotiation of terms)...? (actuarial decision aids). (component part s),.,,..,, (Zacharakis Meyer, 2000). and 2), (cognitive psychology ) (social judgment theory : SJT, Brunswik 1956) (actuarial m odels). (real) (proximal cues) (Strong 1992). (Stew art 1988). (MacMillan, Seigel and Subba Narasimha 1985; MacMillan, Zeman, and Subba Narasimha 1987; Robin 1987; T immon s, Muzyka, Stevenson, and Bygrave 1987; Sanhberg, Schw eiger and Hofer 1988; Hall and Hofer 1993; Andrew L. Zacharakis and G. Dale Meyer, 2000). (2000) 2). 2), 2000,,, , pp

5 237,. 52%, 48% %., 70-80% ) (fair market value) 3) (fair).,.,... 4 ).,., (M&A,, ).,.,.,.,.,,.,, M&A. 2).... 3) (fair market value),. Smith (1994) (economic benefits, ) (present value) (, 2000,? - -,, p.14). 4), 2000,,".

6 Page View/ / Domain/ Brand/ DB Goodwill /,, EPS, PER IRR PSR, DCF < > 2000,,... (myths) 5 ).,..,...,..,..,.,..., ( ),..,.,,,,. 2. 1) ( ) 5), 1998,,, pp.4-7.

7 239 ( )..,,,. < 1>. 2). < 2> < 3>.,,,..,,.., DCF,,,,..,,,,,.,,,. (discounted cash flow : DCF ),,., DCF., (comparative analy sis approach),,,., (option pricing model approach). ( ),,. DCF,,,. (1) (D CF ) (discounted cashflow method : DCF )

8 240 (income approach)., ( ). Miller and Modigliani(1961) 6 ). DCF 7 ). V = = t = 0 CF t ( 1 + WA CC) t CF I C* (R OI C - WA CC) * T + WA CC WA CC( 1 + WA CC) V = CF = 8) W A CC = (w ei g h t e d average cost of cost : WACC) IC = ROIC = (return on invested capital)=cf/ IC ROIC - WACC = T = DCF, IC0,.,. DCF 9). V = PV[ ] + P V [ ] DCF (+),. DCF (- ),,..,, DCF. M&A. DCF., 6) M. Miller and F. Modigliani, 1961, "Dividend Policy, Growth and Valuation of Shares, J ournal of B usiness, Oct., pp ;, 1998,, p16-19;, 2000,," , pp ) DCF Copeland and Weston, 1987, F inancial Theory and Corp orate P olicy, 3rd ed., Addition Willey pp ) DCF CF EBIT DA, NOPAT, NOI. 9) S. Myers, 1977, Determinants of Corporate Borrowing," J ournal of F inancial E conom ics, pp

9 24 1. (2),,. (price earning ratio: PER), (price book value ratio; PBR), (price sales ratio: PSR) (T obin Q)..(, 1998)...,. DCF. 10).. (Gordon, 1959). P 0 = DP S 1 Po : DPS 1 : r : ( ) gn : DPS 1 = EPSo( )(1+gn ). P 0 = E P S 0 ( )( 1 + g n ) EPS 0, P 0 = PE R = E P S 0 ( )( 1 + g n ) E PS 0,, P 0 E PS 1 = PE R =,.. PER (EPS ) PER. PER,. 0.. (Gordon, 1959). 10), 1998,, pp

10 242 P 0 = DP S 1 Po: DPS1: r : ( ) gn : DPS 1 EPSo( )(1+gn ),. P 0 = E P S 0 ( )( 1 + g n ) (ROE) EPS0/ BV0 (BV0 P 0 = : 1 ), B V 0 R OE ( )( 1 + g n ) BV0, PBR. P 0 B V 0 = PB R = R OE ( )( 1 + g n ), ROE EPS1/ BV0, PBR. P 0 B V 0 = PB R = R OE (PBR), ROE,. ROE, g= ROE(1- ) P 0 B V 0 = PB R = R OE - g n PBR ROE., ROE. ROE.. PER PBS. (price sales ratio : PSR). (Gordon, 1959). P 0 = DPS 1 Po: DPS 1: r : ( ) gn : DPS1 EPSo( )(1+gn),. P 0 = E P S 0 ( )( 1 + g n ) (ROS) EPS0/ S0 (S 0 : 1 ), P 0 = S 0 R OS ( )( 1 + g n ) S0, PSR. P 0 S 0 = P SR = R OS ( )( 1 + g n ), ROS EPS 1/ S0, PSR. P 0 S 0 = PB R = R OS PSR,,,. PSR., PER PBR

11 243 PSR.,, PER (, ) PER PSR., PER PBR., PSR., PSR.. PSR,.,.. (3) - (Black- Scholes (call option). Model) = SN ( d 1 ) - K e - r t SN ( d 2 ) d 1 : d 2 ln ( S K ) + ( r + t : d 1 - t 2 2, S = 2 t) K = t = r = =, ln ( ) -. 1 : - d 1 d 2. 2 : N ( d 1 ) N ( d 2 ). 3 :. = K e - 4 : -. (4) ( ) KOSDAQ.,... = ( 1 1.5) 2.5 = = ( ) = 2 =( ) 5 = = 30% = ( r t

12 244 ) 2.. (5) 11).. < > 10, 5 200, 30%, 30, 5, PER ( 30 PER 10 ) (10 (1 0.3) % ( )..,,,, %, %, %, %, %, IPO 25-35%. 9 ( ) 7, 4, DCF, PER 3, EV/ EBIT DA, ). (,, ), / (,,, ), (, CEO, CF O,, ), (, ), (, Off- line,, ). / 35%, / 24%, 22%, 12% 8%. 2.. T A. 11), 2000,,, pp ) Bzeye. com ;,,.

13 245 1) A A 1998, ,. 2) (1) USPS IBI(Infomation - Based Indicia). IBI,,,. IBI , , 4. (2) (2000 ) DM 70% 28, DM 20%. 3) (1) EZ- Stamp(electronic stamp) PC, 2D- 4State. 2D- 2D-,,. 360, 2Byte,,.,, 2D- OCR 85% 99.99%. (2) % DM.,. 1,,, (,, )..,. (,,,, )

14 246 (cyber money)., 1 2byte,. (3) Stamp.com, FBI Down Sizing.. EZ- Stamp, 4) T A < 4> < 5>. 5) T A. : 5 4 : 11,112 : 45,000 ( 5,000 ) : ) (1) T A 4. A ( : ) A ( :, %) EPS ( ) , , , , ,917 BPS ( ) 27,250 42, , , , (%) , , , ,950.3 (%) (%) ROE (%) ROA (%) EPS (%)

15 ( :, ) 200,000, ,000 ( ) 2, ('00 ) ('00 ) - 50,000, , % ('00 ) 87, ,300 10,500 12% = {( ) + ( 87, )} 2.5 = 53,300 3,000,000, ,111 27,000 40% 2000( ) 2001( ) ,000 PER 5 5-2, , A ( : ) : 12% , , , , ,488 23, ,990 32,539 32, ,103 43,543 44, ,868 56,893 57, , , , ,200 84, ,400 8, % 50.00% ( : ) 10.00%

16 248 < 6>. (2) T A. < 7>. (3) A 53, ) ,, S/ W (con sortium ).. 2D-, 1D-,,., ,000 ( 5000 ). 45,000 9 (Exit ) 300% 2000%. (10.0 % ). (Netw ork Infra) (Consulting) (Partnership). 80.., T. 3. T. T 8.

17 249.,..., DCF. DCF..,..,,,.., DCF,.,. DCF.,.,,,.,,,,.,.,,,.....,.,.,,,.. DCF,

18 250.,,.,,,.,,,,., , 2000,, (2000.7), pp , 2000,,,. 3., 2000, Venture Capital,,. 4., 2000,? -," 5., 2000,,,. 6., 2000,,,. 7.,,, 2000,, ( ), pp , 1998,,. 9., 2000,,. 10., 1998,,, 20 2, pp (1998),,. 12. Bygrave, W. D. and J. A. T immons, 1992, Venture Capital at the Crossroads, Harvard Business School Press, Cambridge, Copeland and Weston, 1987, Financial T heory and Corporate Policy, 3rd ed., Addition Willey.

19 Dean, B. V. and J. J., Giglierano, 1990, Multistage Financing of T echnical Start - Up Companies in Silicon Valley," Journal of Business Venturing, 5, Gordon V. Smith and Rus sel L. Parr, 1994, Valuation of Intellectual Property and Intangible Assets, John Willy & Sons. 16. Hall, J., and Hofer, C. W., 1993, Venture Capitalist s ' Decision Criteria and New Venture Evaluation," Journal of Business Venturing, 8(1), Hitt, M. A., and T yler, B. B., 1991, Strategic Decision Models : Integrating Different Perspectives, Strategic Management Journal, 12, Gorman, M. & W. A. Sahlman (1989), What Do Venture Capitalist Do?," Journal of Business Venturing, Khan, A. M., 1987, As sessing Venture Capital Investment s with Non Compensatory Behavioral Decision Models," Journal of Business Venturing, 2, Lerner, J., 1994, Venture Capitalist s and Decision to Go Public," Journal of Financial Economics, 35, Lewis, B. S., Patton, J. M., Green, S. L., 1988, T he Effects of Information Choice and Information Use on Analy st s: Predictions of Municipal Bond Rating Changes," T he Accounting Review, 63(2), MacMillan, I. C., Seigel, R., and Subba Narasimba, P. N., 1987, Criteria Distingushing Unsuccessful Ventures in the Venture Screening Process," Journal of Business Venturing, 2, MacMillan, I. C., Zeman, L., and Subba Narasimba, P. N., 1985, Criteria u sed by Venture Capitalist to Evaluate New Venture Proposals," Journal of Business Venturing, 1, Miller M. and F. Modigliani, 1961, Dividend Policy, Growth and Valuation of Shares," Journal of Business, Oct., pp ; 25. Myer s, S. 1977, Determinant s of Corporate Borrow ing," Journal of Financial Economics, pp Pennington, N., and Hastie, R. 1986, Evidence Evaluation in Complex Decision Making," Journal of Personality and Social P sychology, 51(2), Fried, V. H. and R. D. Hisrich (1994), T ow ard a Model of Venture Capital- Investment Decision_Making," Financial Management, 23(3), Robinson, K. C., 1998, An Examination of the Influence of Industry Structure on Eight Alternative Measures of New Venture Performance for High Potential Independent New Venture," Journal of Business Venturing, 14(2), Ruhnka, J. C., Feldman, H. D., and Dean, T. J., 1992, T he Living Dead Phenomena in Venture Capital Investments, Journal of Business Venturing, 7(2),

20 Sahlman, W. A., 1990, Structure of Venture Capital Organization, Journal of Financial Economics, 27, Sandberg, W. R., Schw eiger, D. M. and Hofer, C. W., 1988, T he Use of Verbal Protocols in Eetermining Venture Capitalist s ' Decision Processes, Entrepreneur ship T heory and Practice(Winter), Steier, L, and Greenw ood, R., 1995, Venture Capitalist Relationships in the Deal Structuring and Post - investment Stages of New Firm Creation, Jorunal of Management Studies, 32(3), T immons, J. A., Muzyka, D. F., Stevenson, H. H., and Bygrave, W. D., 1987, Opportunity Recognition : T he Core of Entrepreneur ship, Frontier s Of Entrepreneur ship Research, Webjee, T. T. and Bruno, A. V., 1984, A Model of Venture Capitalist Investment Activity, Management Science, 30(9), Zacharakis, Andrew L. and G. Dale Meyer, 2000, T he Potential of Actuarial Decision Models: Can T hey Improve the Venture Capital Investment Decision," Journal of Business Venturing, 15,

<313720BCADBCBAB9AB2DBBE7C8B8C0FBB1E2BEF720C5F5C0DA20C0C7BBE7B0E1C1A42E687770>

<313720BCADBCBAB9AB2DBBE7C8B8C0FBB1E2BEF720C5F5C0DA20C0C7BBE7B0E1C1A42E687770> Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society Vol. 14, No. 3 pp. 1109-1115, 2013 http://dx.doi.org/10.5762/kais.2013.14.3.1109 사회적기업 투자 의사결정 모델 연구 서성무 1, 장대규 2* 1 중앙대학교 경영경제대학, 2 중앙대학교 일반대학원