韓國開發硏究제 32 권제 4 호 ( 통권제 109 호 ) 개인 CB 자료를이용한우리나라가계의 부채상환위험분석 함준호 ( 연세대학교국제학대학원교수 ) 김정인 (KCB 연구소소장 ) 이영숙 (KCB 연구소전문연구원 ) Risk Analysis of Household Deb
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1 韓國開發硏究제 32 권제 4 호 ( 통권제 109 호 ) 개인 CB 자료를이용한우리나라가계의 부채상환위험분석 함준호 ( 연세대학교국제학대학원교수 ) 김정인 (KCB 연구소소장 ) 이영숙 (KCB 연구소전문연구원 ) Risk Analysis of Household Debt in Korea: Using Micro CB Data Joon-Ho Hahm (Professor, Graduate School of International Studies, Yonsei University) Jung In Kim (Director of Research Center, Korea Credit Bureau) Young Sook Lee (General Manager of Research Center, Korea Credit Bureau) * 함준호 : 교신저자 ** 본논문은 2009 년 11 월 25 일개최된한국금융학회 금융위원회 금융감독원공동주최동계정책심포지엄에서발표된 우리나라가계부채의위험분석과거시건전성감독에대한시사점 자료를논문형태로수정 보완한것이다. 심포지엄참석자와한국개발연구원및보험연구원의세미나에서유익한조언을해주신여러분과익명의두분의심사자, 그리고연구수행과정에서많은도움을주신 KCB 의변동준책임연구원께감사드린다. *** 함준호 : ( ) jhahm@yonsei.ac.kr, (address) Graduate School of International Studies, Yonsei University, 262 Seongsan-no, Seodaemoon-gu, Seoul , Korea 김정인 : ( ) jikim@koreacb.com, (address) Korea Credit Bureau, 11F, SGI B/D , Yeunji-dong, Chongro-gu, Seoul , Korea 이영숙 : ( ) ysook@koreacb.com, (address) Korea Credit Bureau, 11F, SGI B/D , Yeunji-dong, Chongro-gu, Seoul , Korea Key Word: (Household Debt), (Debt-to-income Ratio: DTI), (Credit Bureau: CB), (Household Mortgage Loan), (Consumer Loan Default Rate) JEL Code: G21, G28, D14 Received: Referee Process Started: Referee Reports Completed:
2 ABSTRACT We conduct a comprehensive risk analysis of household debt in Korea for the first time using the whole sample credit bureau (CB) data of 2.2 million individual debtors. After analysing debt service capacity profiles of debtor groups classified by the borrower characteristics such as income, age, occupation, credit scoring, and the type of creditor business companies, we investigate the impact of interest rate and income changes on debt service-to-income ratios (DTIs) and default rates of respective debtor groups. Empirical results indicate that debt service burdens are relatively high for low income wage earners, high income self-employed, low income capital and card loan holders, and high income mutual savings loan holders. We also find that debtors from multiple financial companies are particularly weak in their debt service capacity. The scenario analysis indicates that financial companies, with the current level of capital buffers, may be able to absorb negative consequences arising from the increase in DTIs and loan default rates if the interest rate and income changes remain modest. However, the negative consequences may fall disproportionately on non-bank financial companies such as capital, credit card, and mutual savings banks, whose debtors' DTIs are already high. We also find that the refinancing risk of household debt is relatively high in Korea as more than half of household mortgage debts are bullet loans. As the DTIs of mortgage loan holders are already high, under the current DTI regulation, mortgage loans may not be readily refinanced especially when the interest rate rises. Disruptions in mortgage loan refinancing may put downward pressure on housing prices, which may in turn magnify refinancing risk under the current loan-to-value (LTV) regulation. Overall our analysis suggests that, for more effective monitoring of household debt risk, it is necessary to combine existing surveillance schemes based on macro aggregate indicators with more comprehensive and detailed risk analyses based on micro individual data.
3 ABSTRACT
4 4 韓國開發硏究 / Ⅳ Ⅰ. 문제의제기., (endogeneity), (herd behavior) (fallacy of composition),,., (procyclical),,,.., (deleveraging). (procyclicality),. 1).,,. 1) (2009) (+), Adrian and Shin(2008). (2009), (LTV).
5 개인 CB 자료를이용한우리나라가계의부채상환위험분석 5,.,,.. 1,,, 2,,,,,,...,.. Ⅱ. 가계부채현황및기존연구 [Figure 1] ,8. 2) % % 110%, 111%, 76%, 71%., 2) 1997,, ,, (,, ),,,,,,,,., , 818.4,, (1993 SNA). (KCB).
6 6 韓國開發硏究 / Ⅳ [Figure 1] Total Household Credits in Korea (trillion won) Net increase of merchandise credit(l) Net increase of loans to households(l) Outstanding volume of loans and Credit to households(r) (trillion won) / / / / / / Note: Bar graphs denote quarterly flows and the solid line denotes outstanding volume of loans and credits to households in trillion won. Source: Bank of Korea [Figure 2] [Figure 3] 2009, , 2..,, [Figure 4] , CD.,., (2008)
![개인 CB 자료를이용한우리나라가계의부채상환위험분석 7 [Figure 2] Newly Extended Household Loans in Korea Monthly](/docs-images/99/140702944/images/7-0.jpg "new loans (trillion won) New loans by income quintile (trillion won) 10 Mortgage loans")
7 개인 CB 자료를이용한우리나라가계의부채상환위험분석 7 [Figure 2] Newly Extended Household Loans in Korea Monthly new loans (trillion won) New loans by income quintile (trillion won) 10 Mortgage loans Non-collateralized loans Mortgage loans bu income quintile Non-collateralized loans by income quintile Source: KCB Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q5 [Figure 3] Composition of Newly Extended Loans Shares of Mortgages and Non-collateralized Loans Shares of Mortgage loans Shares of Non-collateralized loans Shares of 1st and 5th income quintile in mortgage loans 1st income quintile 5th income quintile Shares of Bank Loans and Wage Earners Shares of Bank loans Shares of Wage Earners Shares of 1st and 5th income quintile in non-collateralized loans 1st income quintile 5th income quintile Source: KCB.
8 8 韓國開發硏究 / Ⅳ [Figure 4] Interest Rate and Delinquency Rate of Household Loans Interest rate Delinquency rate(1 day) 8.0 Interest Rate of Household loans Interest Rate of Mortgage loans 3.0 Delinquency Rate of Household loans S.A Source: Bank of Korea Source: Financial Supervisory Service..,,, 4.1%, BIS 1.5%p. IMF Karasula(2008)., 1~3%p 8.5~17%p, 10~30% 4~5%p. (2009) 1997,.,,,., (DTI).,. (2008).,
9 개인 CB 자료를이용한우리나라가계의부채상환위험분석 % % %.,. (2008) , 2000,. (2009).,,,,.,. (2009).,,.,. (2009).,,.,,,.,.,
10 10 韓國開發硏究 / Ⅳ. Ⅲ. 가계부채건전성분석 1. 분석목표및자료 - (DTI).,.,. - (DTI).., (DTI).,.,,. 3) KCB ,850 3)., CB.,.
11 개인 CB 자료를이용한우리나라가계의부채상환위험분석 11 <Table 1> Data Descriptions Category Classification Descriptions Occupation Income Debt Debt-toincome ratio DTI Wage earners Self-employed Others Annual income Outstanding debt Wage earners with job and income information Wage earners with job information only Self-employed with small business loans Other self-employed Housewives, students, temporary workers, etc. Income reported Estimated by KCB income estimation model KCB data supplemented by KFB(Korea Federation of Banks) data Home mortgage loans, non-collateralized loans, other loans and policy loans Commercial banks and other non-bank financial institutions loans Debt-to-income ratio Outstanding Amount of Loans / Annual Income Debt service-toincome ratio (Monthly principal repayment and interest payment + cash advance fees) / monthly income Early and bullet principal repayments are not included.,,,,, KCB 2,210. KCB, KCB ,,,,,., 20 10, (, ),,,, ( ),,,, (1~3 ), (4~7 ), (8~10 ). <Table 1>.
12 12 韓國開發硏究 / Ⅳ 2. 부채상환능력분석 <Table 2> ,210 1,150,, , (DTI) 18.5%, DTI 40% 11.7%, DTI 100% 1.58%. 4) <Figure 5> DTI. <Table 2> Summary Statistics of Household Debt in Korea Total number of individuals with consumer credit activities(10 thousands) ,143 2,169 2,210 Debt obligors 1,126 1,135 1,150 debt obligors Average debt amount outstanding(million won) Average annual income(million won) Debt-to-income Ratio DTI obligors with DTI>40% obligors with DTI>100% ) DTI. 2009, 40%, 50%, 60% DTI. DTI, (Front-end) DTI 28%,,, (Back-end) DTI 36%. (FHA) (Back-end) DTI 43%, (Veterans Affairs Loan) 41%. DTI 40%.
13 개인 CB 자료를이용한우리나라가계의부채상환위험분석 13 [Figure 5] Distribution of Debt Obligors by DTI Group (as of ) (No. of Obligors, 10 thous.) ~10 10~30 30~50 50~80 80~100 (DTI, %) 가. 소득분위별분석 <Table 3>. <Table 3> 1, 5., - 5, 4, 1, DTI 5, 1, 4. DTI 5 1 U. <Table 3> Household Debt Profile by Income Quintile Income quintile debt obligors Average debt amount (mil. won) Average annual income (mil. won) Debt-toincome ratio DTI DTI>40% DTI>100% Total Note: Income quintiles are as follows: 1st [10~20.8 mil. won], 2nd [20.8~24.8], 3rd [24.8~28.7], 4th [28.7~34.9], 5th [34.9~200 mil. won]
![14 韓國開發硏究 / 2010. Ⅳ [Figure 6] Debt-to-Income and DTI Ratios by Income Quintile 1.](/docs-images/99/140702944/images/14-0.jpg "2 Debt-to-Income ratio by obligor's income quintile 0.9 1.1 1.5 2.2 18.")
14 14 韓國開發硏究 / Ⅳ [Figure 6] Debt-to-Income and DTI Ratios by Income Quintile 1.2 Debt-to-Income ratio by obligor's income quintile DTI by obligor's income quintile Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q5 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q5 나. 직업군별분석 70%, 30%,. <Table 4> - DTI, DTI 40% 16.4%. 5) DTI, DTI. <Table 5> 1 DTI, 5, 4, 5 DTI, DTI 32.9%,. 다. 지역별분석,. - DTI. - DTI, DTI 40%. DTI 100% 5).. DTI.
15 개인 CB 자료를이용한우리나라가계의부채상환위험분석 15 <Table 4> Household Debt Profile by Occupation Group debt obligors Average debt amount (mil. won) Average annual income (mil. won) Debt-toincome ratio DTI DTI>40% DTI>100% Total Wage Earners Self-employed [Figure 7] Debt-to-Income Ratio and DTI by Occupation Group 1.3 Debt-to-Income ratio by obligor's occupation 1.9 DTI by obligor's occupation Wage earners Self-employed Wage earners Self-employed <Table 5> DTI of Occupation Group by Income Quintile Income quintile Average debt amount (mil. won) Wage earners DTI DTI>40% DTI>100% Average debt amount (mil. won) Self-employed DTI DTI>40% DTI>100%
![16 韓國開發硏究 / 2010. Ⅳ [Figure 8] DTI of Occupation Group by Income Quintile 18.0 Wage earners by obligor's income quintile 15.2 15.6 17.4 17.7 21.2 Self-employed by obligor's income quintile 16.2 16.](/docs-images/99/140702944/images/16-0.jpg "5 20.5 32.9 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q5 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q5 <Table 6> Household Debt Profile by Region debt obligors Average debt amount (mil. won) Average income (mil.")
16 16 韓國開發硏究 / Ⅳ [Figure 8] DTI of Occupation Group by Income Quintile 18.0 Wage earners by obligor's income quintile Self-employed by obligor's income quintile Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q5 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q5 <Table 6> Household Debt Profile by Region debt obligors Average debt amount (mil. won) Average income (mil. won) Debt-to-income ratio DTI DTI>40% DTI>100% Total Capital area Seoul Northern Seoul Southern Seoul Non-capital area [Figure 9] Debt-to-income Ratio and DTI by Region Debt-to-Income ratio by obligor's residential area DTI by obligor's residential area Capital Non-capital Seoul North.S South.S Capital Non-capital Seoul North.S South.S
17 개인 CB 자료를이용한우리나라가계의부채상환위험분석 17. 라. 신용등급별분석 <Table 7> KCB.,,. -. DTI,,. <Table 7> Household Debt Profile by Credit Rating Group Average debt obligors debt amount (mil. won) Average annual income (mil. won) Debt-toincome ratio DTI DTI>40% DTI>100% Total High credit(1~3) Middle credit(4~7) Low credit(8~10) [Figure 10] Debt-to-Income Ratio and DTI by Credit Scoring Group Debt-to-Income ratio by obligor's credit scoring grade DTI by obligor's credit scoring grade High Middle Low High Middle Low
18 18 韓國開發硏究 / Ⅳ 마. 연령별분석. 30~40, 50, 20, ~ , DTI 40~50, 30, 60, DTI, DTI 100%. <Table 8> Household Debt Profile by Age Group Age group Average debt obligors debt amount (mil. won) Average annual income (mil. won) Debt-toincome ratio DTI DTI>40% DTI>100% Total above [Figure 11] Debt-to-Income Ratio and DTI by Age Group Debt-to-Income ratio by obligor's age DTI by obligor's age ~29 30~39 40~49 50~ ~29 30~39 40~49 50~59 60+
19 개인 CB 자료를이용한우리나라가계의부채상환위험분석 19 바. 금융업권별분석, 2/3,,,,. -,,,,, DTI,,,, DTI 40%,,. <Table 9> Household Debt Profile by Financial Sector debt obligors Average debt amount (mil. won) Average annual income (mil. won) Debt-to-inco me ratio DTI DTI>40% DTI>100% Total Bank Credit card Capital Life insurance Mutual savings [Figure 12] Debt-to-Income Ratio and DTI by business Sector Debt-to-Income ratio by business sector DTI by business sector Bank Card Capital Insurance Mutual Savings Bank Card Capital Insurance Mutual Savings
![3) [Figure 13] Debt-to-Income Ratio and DTI of Banks Obligors Debt-to-Income ratio by banks, banks only, and others(both banks & non-banks) 1.8 1.8 2.](/docs-images/99/140702944/images/20-1.jpg "0 DTI by banks, banks only, and others(both banks & non-banks) 19.5 14.8 32.9 banks banks only banks and other non-banks banks banks only banks and other non-banks <Table 10>.")
20 20 韓國開發硏究 / Ⅳ <Table 10> Household Debt of Banking Sector debt obligors Average debt amount (mil. won) Average annual income (mil. won) Debt-toincome ratio DTI DTI>40% DTI>100% Banks From banks only From banks and other non-banks (47.8) (64.7) (33.3) (1.77) (14.8) (8.0) (1.4) (16.7) (72.8) (34.8) (1.96) (32.9) (27.9) (3.3) [Figure 13] Debt-to-Income Ratio and DTI of Banks Obligors Debt-to-Income ratio by banks, banks only, and others(both banks & non-banks) DTI by banks, banks only, and others(both banks & non-banks) banks banks only banks and other non-banks banks banks only banks and other non-banks <Table 10>. banks only, banks and other non-banks 2. <Table 10> banks only DTI 14.8% banks and other non-banks DTI 32.9%. 6), DTI banks and other non-banks DTI banks only DTI 6) banks and other non-banks 30~40 ( 30 2~3, 40 1 ), banks only,,.
21 개인 CB 자료를이용한우리나라가계의부채상환위험분석 21 <Table 11> DTI of Bank Obligors by Income Quintile Income quintile DTI Banks Banks only Banks and other non-banks DTI>40% DTI>100% DTI DTI>40% DTI>100% DTI DTI>40% DTI>100% [Figure 14] DTI of Bank Obligors 44.4 banks banks only banks and other non-banks Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q5. banks only 1 DTI, banks and other nonbanks 1 DTI. banks and other non-banks banks only DTI 40%, 1 banks and other non-banks., 2 DTI 1 DTI, DTI. DTI 40%,, 1, 5 DTI.
22 22 韓國開發硏究 / Ⅳ <Table 12> DTI of Non-bank Obligors Income quintile DTI Credit card Capital Insurance Mutual Savings DTI> 40% DTI> 100% DTI DTI>40 40% DTI>10 100% DTI DTI> 40% DTI> 100% DTI DTI> 40% DTI> 100% [Figure 15] DTI of Non-banks Obligors Card Capital Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q5 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q Insurance Mutual Savings Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q5 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q5 3. DTI 와가계부채부실위험 DTI DTI. [Figure 16] DTI
23 개인 CB 자료를이용한우리나라가계의부채상환위험분석 23 [Figure 16] DTI and Default Rate DTI vs. Default Rate Default rate and number of defaulted obligors by DTI group (Default rate, %) 30 (thous.) 300 No.of defaulted obligors Default rate 30% % % % % 5 (DTI, %) 50 5% % 1., [Figure 16] DTI, DTI. DTI 30% DTI DTI, DTI., [Figure 17],, DTI, 1, DTI, 5 DTI,, DTI. DTI., DTI 50% DTI DTI. 7)
24 24 韓國開發硏究 / Ⅳ [Figure 17] The Relationship between DTI and Default Rate 1st vs. 5th income quintile st income quintile 5th income quintile ㅊ Wage earners vs. Self-employed Wage earners Self-employed Card vs. Capital vs. Mutual Savings Card Capital 금리및소득변화의영향 DTI. 가. 금리시나리오분석 90%., ~3%p, DTI <Table 13>. 1~3%p DTI 1.5~4.5%p, 1%p DTI 1.3%p, 1.9%p. 1%p DTI 1 1.2%p, 5 7) DTI,,, DTI,..
25 개인 CB 자료를이용한우리나라가계의부채상환위험분석 25 <Table 13> Effects of Interest Rate Increases on DTI Income quintile %p 2%p 3%p Total (Wage earners) (Self-employed) 18.5% (16.8%) (22.5%) 20.0% (18.1%) (24.4%) 21.5% (19.4%) (26.3%) 23.0% (20.7%) (28.2%) % 20.1% 21.3% 22.5% % 16.3% 17.3% 18.2% % 16.9% 18.0% 19.1% % 20.1% 21.6% 23.1% % 24.1% 26.3% 28.5% 2.2%p DTI,. 나. 소득시나리오분석 5% 5% <Table 14>. DTI, 5% DTI 1.0%p, 5% DTI 0.9%p, 1.2%p. 5% DTI 1 0.9%p, 5 1.1%p, DTI DTI. <Table 14> Effects of Income Changes on DTI Income quintile % Increase 5% Decrease Total (Wage earners) (Self-employed) 18.5% (16.8%) (22.5%) 19.5% (17.7%) (23.7%) 17.7% (16.0%) (21.4%) % 19.8% 18.0% % 16.2% 14.7% % 16.7% 15.1% % 19.6% 17.8% % 23.0% 20.8%
26 26 韓國開發硏究 / Ⅳ 다. 금리및소득시나리오분석 2%p 3% <Table 15>. DTI 2.4%p, DTI, 5 DTI. DTI <Table 16>., DTI,, 2 banks and other non-banks DTI. DTI 30%, banks and other non-banks 1 5. <Table 15> Effects of Interest Rate and Income Changes on DTI by Occupation Total Wage-earners Self-employed Total 18.5% 20.9% 16.8% 18.9% 22.5% 25.6% 1st quintile 18.9% 20.7% 18.0% 19.4% 21.2% 24.1% 5th quintile 21.9% 25.5% 17.7% 20.7% 32.9% 38.2% <Table 16> Effects of Interest Rate and Income Changes on DTI by Business Sector Banks (banks and other non-banks) Credit card Capital Life insurance Mutual savings Total 19.5% 22.4% 32.9% 35.8% 29.6% 31.2% 30.3% 32.1% 23.6% 26.2% 27.1% 28.5% 1st quintile 19.2% 21.7% 44.4% 47.4% 34.5% 35.8% 36.7% 38.0% 31.6% 34.9% 24.6% 25.3% 5th quintile 22.1% 26.1% 33.4% 37.2% 34.1% 37.1% 32.9% 35.9% 28.5% 32.2% 38.3% 42.0%
27 개인 CB 자료를이용한우리나라가계의부채상환위험분석 27 라. 금리및소득변화에따른불량률추정 2%p, 3% DTI, <Table 17> <Table 18>. DTI DTI 20~100%,, DTI, DTI., 5.0% 5.3% 0.3%p <Table 17> Effects of Interest Rate and Income Changes on Default Rate by Occupation Estimated Total (1st quintile) (5th quintile) Wage earners (1st quintile) (5th quintile) Self-employed (1st quintile) (5th quintile) 5.0% (8.4%) (3.1%) 3.8% (8.0%) (1.4%) 7.8% (10.0%) (6.3%) 5.3% (8.5%) (3.4%) 4.0% (8.1%) (1.7%) 8.1% (10.0%) (6.8%) <Table 18> Effects of Interest Rate and Income Changes on Default Rate by Financial Sector Banks (banks and other non-banks) Credit card Capital Life insurance Mutual savings Total 3.3% 3.6% 4.4% 4.8% 4.0% 4.2% 6.0% 6.2% 4.9% 5.3% 18.1% 18.2% 1st quintile 6.3% 6.4% 6.4% 6.5% 5.6% 5.6% 8.8% 8.8% 6.9% 7.2% 20.8% 20.8% 5th quintile 2.1% 2.5% 3.8% 4.3% 4.0% 4.4% 5.1% 5.4% 4.5% 5.1% 12.4% 12.4%
28 28 韓國開發硏究 / Ⅳ, %, 1 10%, 5 6.3% 6.8%., % 3.6% 0.3%p, banks and other non-banks 4.8%. 2,,,, %p 3%p,.. 1, 5, 1, banks and other non-banks 5.,, 2,,. 5. 주택담보대출차환위험,.. 60%,. [Figure 18]
![개인 CB 자료를이용한우리나라가계의부채상환위험분석 29 [Figure 18] Newly Extended Home Mortgage Loans and Bullet Loans (trillion won) 12 10 8 6 4 2 Amount of newly extended home mortgage loans Amount of newly extended](/docs-images/99/140702944/images/29-0.jpg "bullet-type mortgage loans bullet-type loans in total mortgage loans 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0 2008. 1 8 10 2009.")
29 개인 CB 자료를이용한우리나라가계의부채상환위험분석 29 [Figure 18] Newly Extended Home Mortgage Loans and Bullet Loans (trillion won) Amount of newly extended home mortgage loans Amount of newly extended bullet-type mortgage loans bullet-type loans in total mortgage loans 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% % Note: The first bar denotes the amount of newly extended home mortgage loan, and the second bar denotes the amount of newly extended bullet-type mortgage loan. The solid line indicates the share of bullet-type loans in total mortgage loans. [Figure 18] %. [Figure 19] /4. [Figure 19] 13 ~17 2/ DTI 40% 3/4 4.7 ~6.3 34~37%. DTI, DTI.. (LTV). Ⅳ. 요약및시사점 1999
![30 韓國開發硏究 / 2010. Ⅳ [Figure 19] Bullet Mortgage Loans Coming Due (trillion won) 28 21 34% 14.4 14 35% 13.](/docs-images/99/140702944/images/30-0.jpg "5 A: Total amount of home mortgage loans coming due in each quarter B: Amount of loans whose obligor's DTI>40% B/A ratio 37% 17.2 13.4 35% 31% 35% 33% 34% 36% 40% 30% 7 4.9 4.7 6.3 4.7 7.4 7.0 8.7 6.8 5.")
30 30 韓國開發硏究 / Ⅳ [Figure 19] Bullet Mortgage Loans Coming Due (trillion won) % % 13.5 A: Total amount of home mortgage loans coming due in each quarter B: Amount of loans whose obligor's DTI>40% B/A ratio 37% % 31% 35% 33% 34% 36% 40% 30% % Note: The first bar denotes the total amount of home mortgage loans coming due in each quarter, and the second bar denotes the amount of loans whose obligor's DTI is greater than 40%. The solid line shows the share of loans with DTI over 40%..,, DTI, DTI,,,,, banks and other non-banks , (DTI) 18.5%, DTI 40% 11.7%. 5, DTI U, DTI 40% DTI, DTI 40%. 1 DTI,
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