에너지경제연구 제 16 권제 1 호 < 한국자원경제학회 > < 에너지경제연구원 > 1987년 6월에자연자원및환경과관련된경제이론, 정책, 제도, 산업의연구및그연구결과의보급을목적으로설립되어, 학술지의발간, 국내및국제학술발표회의개최, 그리고국내외관련학술단체와의

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1 KOREAN ENERGY ECONOMIC REVIEW 에너지경제연구 Korean Energy Economic Review 제 16 권제 1 호 가정의절전행동에있어절전의식의매개효과분석 : 행동경제학적해석과한계 / 정재환 강승진 전력시장가격에대한역사적요인분해 / 윤원철 절수기기보급에따른소비자의비용절약과이산화탄소저감효과 / 김정인 오창수 탄소은행제의가정용전력수요절감효과분석 / 배정환 김미정 정해영 원자력, 신재생에너지의영향력에따른우리나라에너지부문온실가스배출요인분석 / 김용빈 시변파라미터일반화해밀턴 -plucking 모형을이용한전력소비의선제적경기국면판단활용연구 / 김권식 오승환 에너지기업의주식수익률에미치는국제유가의수요와공급충격의영향력 / 서지용 한국자원경제학회 에너지경제연구원

2 에너지경제연구 제 16 권제 1 호 < 한국자원경제학회 > < 에너지경제연구원 > 1987년 6월에자연자원및환경과관련된경제이론, 정책, 제도, 산업의연구및그연구결과의보급을목적으로설립되어, 학술지의발간, 국내및국제학술발표회의개최, 그리고국내외관련학술단체와의교류등설립목적에부합하는사업을지속적으로추진하여왔습니다. 현재한국자원경제학회는산업통상자원부의협조로사단법인으로등록되어있으며, 또한국제에너지경제학회 (IAEE) 의한국지부역할을하고있는이분야의유일한학술연구단체로서국내의수많은에너지정책분야전문가들이참여하고있습니다. 국내외에너지및자원에관한각종동향과정보를신속히수집 조사 연구하고이를널리보급 활용하게함으로써국가의에너지및자원에관한정책수립과국민경제향상에이바지하도록하기위하여정부출연연구기관으로 1986 년 9 월설립되었습니다. 에너지경제연구원은 21 세기국내외여건변화에국가 사회가능동적으로대응할수있도록국가에너지 Infra 구축을위하여에너지산업구조개편, 기후변화협약대응, 에너지국제협력, 에너지이용합리화, 에너지수급동향등의연구를핵심연구사업으로추진하고있습니다. 공동편집위원장 이근대 ( 에너지경제연구원 ) 김수이 ( 홍익대학교 ) 편집위원 김윤경 ( 이화여자대학교 ) 김현철 ( 성균관대학교 ) 김형건 ( 강원대학교 ) 박창수 ( 숭실대학교 ) 배정환 ( 전남대학교 ) 원두환 ( 부산대학교 ) 위용석 (University of Arkansas at Pine Bluff) 윤원철 ( 한양대학교 ) 이민수 (Asian Development Bank) 정용훈 ( 인하대학교 ) 조홍종 ( 단국대학교 ) 최성희 ( 계명대학교 ) 본지에게재되는논문의내용은저자개인의견해이며, 저자의소속기관이나본지의공식견해를대변하는것은아닙니다. 에너지경제연구 는제 5 권제 1 호부터한국자원경제학회와에너지경제연구원이공동으로발행하고있습니다.

3 KOREAN ENERGY ECONOMIC REVIEW 에너지경제연구 Korean Energy Economic Review 제 16 권제 1 호 한국자원경제학회 에너지경제연구원

5 차 례 에너지경제연구제 16 권제 1 호 정재환 강승진 윤원철 김정인 오창수 배정환 김미정 정해영 김용빈 김권식 오승환 서지용

7 에너지경제연구제 16 권제 1 호 Korean Energy Economic Review Volume 16, Number 1, March 2017 : pp. 1~34 학술 가정의절전행동에있어절전의식의매개효과분석 : 행동경제학적해석과한계 1

8 2

9 요 3

10 4

11 5

12 6

13 7

14 < 표 1> EPRI(2009) 의피드백전달및전기소비절감효과연구결과단계 단계 단계 단계 단계 단계 단계표준향상된예측세부실시간실시간주요내용요금제요금제피드백피드백피드백피드백 구분간접피드백 전기소비발생후제공 직접피드백 실시간전기정보제공 전기소비 절감효과 8

15 향상된요금제 정보와조언 세대별상세화 예측피드백 웹기반요금분석 세부피드 백 이메일등을통한일 주단위피드백 실시간피드백 가격신호 실시간피드백 댁내장비별제어 9

16 10

17 11

18 [ 그림 1] 연구모형도 12

19 < 표 2> 설문지구성 범주내용방식 사전질문전기관련성 중요성등포괄질문 점척도 전기절약정보 전기절약의식 전기절약행동 인구통계 전기절약정보 정보취득경로 정보유익여부 절약필요성 가계경제영향 국가경제 환경문제영향 전기요금납부액 개인예측치 절약일반 효율기기선택 전기사용억제 거주지역 성별 나이 학력 직업 거주형태 가구원수 가구주와의관계 주택면적 월평균소득 점척도 명목척도 다중응답 명목척도 다중응답 점척도 점척도 숫자기입 점척도 점척도 점척도 명목 순서 구간척도 13

20 14

21 < 표 3> 연구의표본구성 15

22 16

23 α 17

24 < 표 4> 측정도구의타당성과신뢰성 18

25 < 표 5> 주요측정변수기술통계량 19

26 τ α β τ τ [ 그림 2] 직접효과및매개효과모형 τ α τ β 20

27 τ ε α ε τ β ε ε < 표 6> 회귀분석결과 내용 경로 β 표준오차 값 τ 전기절약정보 전기절약행동 α 전기절약정보 전기절약의식 β 전기절약의식 전기절약행동 τ 전기절약정보 전기절약행동 β β 21

28 β β τ τ < 표 7> 부트스트랩방식을통한전체매개효과검증 내용크기표준오차 값 총효과 직접효과 간접효과 매개효과 부트하한값 부트상한값 22

29 특성에따른차이여부분석 < 표 8> 특성별분산분석결과 23

30 24

31 < 표 9> 부트스트랩방식을통한특성별매개효과검증 25

32 26

33 27

34 28

35 29

36 접수일 (2016 년 8 월 21 일 ), 수정일 (2016 년 11 월 20 일 ), 게재확정일 (2016 년 11 월 21 일 ) 30

37 , 2010,,, p.27,,, 2009,, :., 1987,,, 5 2, 1991,,, 9 2, 2008, SPSS/AMOS, : 21.,, 2006,, 17 3, 2007, :,, 12.,,, 2011,,, 22(6), 2009, 36.5 :, :, 2014, HRD, HRD, 16(3), 2009,,, 2009,, 31

38 , 2013,,, 201,,,,, 2010, (IHD),, 59 9, 2012,,, 12-15, 2013,,, 13-19,, 2015,,, 1984,,., 2016, :,, pp.3-11, 2011,, :, 1992,,. Allcott, H., 2011, Social norms and energy conservation, J. Public Econ. Baron, R. M., and Kenny, D. A., 1986, The Moderator-Mediator Variable Distinction in Social Psychological Research : Conceptual, Strategic, and Statistical Considerations, Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 51(6), Curtis, F., P. Simpson-Housley and S. Drever, 1984, Household Energy Conservation, Energy Policy, Vol.12 (4) EPRI, 2009, Residential Electricity Use Feedback : A Research Synthesis and Economic Framework. Hair, Jr. J. F., R. E. anderson, R. L. Tatham and W. C. Black, 1998, Multivariate Data Analysis, 5th ed., Prentice Hall. Halvorsen, Bente and Bodil M. Larsen, 2001, The flexibility fo household electricity 32

39 deman over time, Resource and Energy Economics, vol.23 Kahneman, D. and Tversky, A., 1979, "Prospect thoery : An analysis of decisions under risk", Econometrica. 47 (2) Shrout, P. E. and Bolger, N., 2002, Mediation in experimental and non-experimental studies : new procedures and recommendations, Psychological Meghods, 7 Ueno, Tsuyoshi, 2006, Effectiveness of an energy-consumption information system on energy savings in residential houses based on monitored data, Applied Energy, vol.83, 2003,, (). 33

40 ABSTRACT The purpose of this research is to analyze the mediating effect of electricity saving consciousness between electricity saving information and electricity saving behavior in residential sector. Also it shows the differences of the result according to the characteristics like professional expertism, interest in policy, and full-time housewife. Generally the partial mediating effect of electricity saving consciousness is confirmed through multiple regression analysis and bootstrapping method. Also it is confirmed that professional expertism has a significant and positive impact on the level of electricity saving information, consciousness, and behavior and the full-time housewife does equally, but interest in policy affects positively only the level of electricity saving information. The mediating effect of electricity saving consciousness is confirmed in each group with characteristics and the strength of mediating effect is highest in the group of interest in policy, followed by full-time housewife and professional expertism. This result implies that the inspiration of consciousness is effective to people with the interest in policy and full-time housewife, but abundant information is more helpful to people with professional expertism to make them save electricity at home. Key Words:mediating effect, electricity saving consciousness, JEL : Q41, Q48 professional expertism, interest in policy, full-time housewife, behavioral economics 34

41 에너지경제연구제 16 권제 1 호 Korean Energy Economic Review Volume 16, Number 1, March 2017 : pp. 35~55 학술 전력시장가격에대한역사적요인분해 * 35

42 36

43 37

44 38

45 39

46 40

47 41

48 < 표 1> 표본자료의기초통계량 42

49 [ 그림 1] 표본시계열자료의추이 43

50 < 표 2> 수준및로그차분변수에대한단위근검정결과 44

51 45

52 [ 그림 2] 구조적충격의추이 46

53 [ 그림 3] SMP 변동에대한역사적요인분해 47

54 [ 그림 4] 기간별 SMP 변동에대한여타구조적충격의기여율 45% 40% 35% 30% 02/05-08/12 09/07-12/07 12/08-15/12 38% 38% 37% 35% 34% 33% 29% 29% 27% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% COAL GAS USD 48

55 [ 그림 5] SMP 변동의방향과여타구조적충격의기여율추이 45% 40% SMP COAL GAS USD 10% 8% 6% 35% 30% 4% 2% 0% -2% 25% % < 표 3> SMP 변동의방향과여타구조적충격의기여율간의상관관계 49

56 [ 그림 6] SMP 변동의크기와여타구조적충격의기여율추이 45% 40% 35% 30% SMP COAL GAS USD 18% 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 25% 0%

57 < 표 4> SMP 변동의크기와여타구조적충격의기여율간의상관관계 51

58 접수일 (2017 년 1 월 4 일 ), 게재확정일 (2017 년 2 월 8 일 ) 52

59 ,,, 2002., (SMP), LNG,,, 27, 2014, pp , :, 17 2, 2015, pp ,,,, 2014.,, 2009.,, 2014 Asche, F., P. Osmundsen and M. Sandsmark, "The UK Market for Natural Gas, Oil and Electricity: Are the Prices Decoupled?" Energy Journal, 27, 2006, pp Bernanke, B., Alternative Explanations of the Money-Income Correlation, Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy 25, 1986, pp Blanchard, O. and D. Quah, The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbances," American Economic Review, 79, 1989, pp Chae, Y., M. Kim and S. Yoo, Does Natural Gas Fuel Price Cause System Marginal Price, Vice-versa, or Neither? A Causality Analysis, Energy, 47, 2012, pp Emery, G. and Q. Liu, "An Analysis of the Relationship between Electricity and Natural-Gas Futures Prices," Journal of Futures Markets, 22, 2002, pp Furió, D. and H. Chuliá, "Price and Volatility Dynamics between Electricity and Fuel Costs: Some Evidence for Spain," Energy Economics, 34, 2012, pp Hamilton, J. and A. Herrera, Oil Shocks and Aggregate Economic Behavior: The Role of Monetary Policy: Comment, Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, 36, 2004, pp. 53

60 Lee, K. and S. Ni, On the Dynamic Effects of Oil Price Shocks: A Study Using Industry Level Data, Journal of Monetary Economics, 49, 2002, pp Mjelde, J. and D. Bessler, "Market Integration among Electricity Markets and Their Major Fuel Source Markets," Energy Economics, 31, 2009, pp Mohammadi, H., "Electricity Prices and Fuel Costs: Long-Run Relations and Short-Run Dynamics," Energy Economics, 31, 2009, pp Muñoz, M. and D. Dickey, "Are Electricity Prices Affected by the US Dollar to Euro Exchange Rate? The Spanish Case," Energy Economics, 31, 2009, pp Serletis, A. and A. Shahmoradi, "Measuring and Testing Natural Gas and Electricity Markets Volatility: Evidence from Alberta's Deregulated Markets," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics and Econometrics, 10, pp Sims, C., Are Forecasting Models Usable for Policy Analysis? Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis Quarterly Review 10, 1986, pp

61 ABSTRACT This study empirically analyzes the responses of electricity prices to the shocks from international energy markets and exchange rate. For this purpose, a structural VAR model is adopted using the data of Australian coal prices, Indonesian natural gas prices, the exchange rates of Korean won to US dollar, and system marginal prices (SMP). The monthly sample covers the period from April 2001 to December According to the empirical results, the shock magnitudes for explaining the SMP fluctuations are revealed in order as natural gas market, coal market, and exchange rate. The shock contributions of coal and natural gas markets turn out to be opposite. Additionally, the shock contribution of natural gas market would be higher than that of coal market when SMP and its volatility are increasing. Key Words:Structural VAR Model, Electricity Market, System Marginal Prices 55

63 에너지경제연구제 16 권제 1 호 Korean Energy Economic Review Volume 16, Number 1, March 2017 : pp. 57~94 학술 절수기기보급에따른소비자의비용절약과 이산화탄소저감효과 57

64 58

65 59

66 60

67 61

68 62

69 63

70 < 표 2-1> 절수기기의종류와특징 64

71 < 표 2-2> 연도별상수도총급수량과업종별수돗물사용량추이 65

72 < 표 2-3> 우리나라 1 일하수발생량 66

73 67

74 < 표 3-1> 수돗물 1 m3생산 공급시 CO₂ 발생량산정방법 68

75 < 표 3-2> 공공하수처리시설 (500m3/ 일이상 ) 의공법별전력사용현황 69

76 < 표 3-3> 항목별방류수질현황 70

77 < 표 3-4> 오염물질의제거량산정식 < 표 3-5> 하수처리및제거물질 1 m3처리시 CO₂ 발생량산정방법 71

78 72

79 73

80 < 표 4-1> 수돗물사용용도별 CO₂ 발생량 74

81 75

82 < 표 4-2> 수돗물급수량기준 CO₂ 발생량 76

83 77

84 < 표 4-3> 연간하수처리및제거물질처리에따른 CO₂발생량 78

85 79

86 < 표 4-4> 절수기기의가격및설치공임 80

87 < 표 4-5> 용도별 층수별건축물현황 81

88 < 표 4-6> 지역별 층수별건축물현황재구성 82

89 < 표 5-1> 물사용자의절수기기설치에따른직 간접물절약효과 83

90 < 표 5-2> 물사용자의절수기기설치에따른직 간접 CO2 감축효과 84

91 < 표 5-3> 비용절감및수익발생효과 85

92 86

93 87

94 88

95 접수일 (2016 년 11 월 24 일 ), 수정일 (2016 년 12 월 22 일 ), 게재확정일 (2017 년 1 월 12 일 ) 89

96 "." SERI, pp ,, ".", 22(1), pp ,,,,,,, " (/).", 6(2), pp ".".,,, ".". pp "."., "." 21 4 pp ".", 51, pp , ".", 7(1), pp ,, "." pp ,,, "." 2010, 30 1, 90

97 pp ,, " CO.", 31(5), pp ,,, ".", 19(4), pp ,, ".", 11(4), pp , ".", 1(1), pp "." Konetic Report, "2013." " (2-1),." ".". 2013, "2013." "." " ,.", "." " []." "2013." "." "." Kelly, D. A Labelling and water conservation: A european perspective on a global challenge. Building Services Engineering Research & Technology 36(6) : pp Phipps. D. A., Aldhaddar. R Personal Behavior, Technological Advance 91

98 Controlling the Domestic Use of Water in a Consumer Society. World Environmental and Water Resources Congress 2013 : pp Yasutoshi Shimizu, Kanako Toyosada and Kiyoshi Nakashima Prediction of CO2 Emissions Associated with Residential Plumbing Equipment(in Japanese). Transactions of the Society of Heating, Air-Conditioning and Sanitary Engineers of Japan 163 : pp Yasutoshi Shimizu, Satoshi Dejima and Kanako Toyosada(2012). The CO2 Emission Factor of Water in Japan. Water 4(4) : pp < < KOSIS(). :.< 92

99 ABSTRACT Recently, Korea is suffering from a severe drought due to the lack of precipitation. So, the necessity of efficient use has come to the fore. This study analyzed the reductions amount of tap water and CO2 and then economic ripple effect if water saving devices were installed to home, commercial facilities and business buildings as the way of response for the lack of water. It was found that national benefit from emission right sales and cost saving is generated from minimum 1,097,699,080,000 won/year to maximum 2,213,351,650,000 won/year. We calculated cost arising from water-saving unit provision. It was found that total 26,702,856,180,000 won if we install water-saving units in the entire buildings in our country. The cost was for replacement of water-saving units in existing buildings. It is found that good result can be achieved also if it is paid to be planned subsidy for installation of water-saving units by local governments. To maximize these effect it is desirable to implement so called, 'Water Use Efficiency Authentication System'. If we maximize water use efficiency through demand control and reduce quantity of CO2 through water saving, 'Water Efficiency Credit(WEC)' then we can use it as Korean Credit Unit(KCU), it will contribute to alleviating imbalance between supply and demand of the emission trading system. Also, it will contribute to revitalize the ETS. Key Words:Water Use Efficiency Authentication System, Water 93

100 Efficiency Credit, Water Demand Management, Emission Trading System, Korean Credit Unit, Drought, Climate Change 94

101 에너지경제연구제 16 권제 1 호 Korean Energy Economic Review Volume 16, Number 1, March 2017 : pp. 95~118 학술 탄소은행제의가정용전력수요절감효과 분석 1) 2) 3) * ** *** 95

102 Intended Nationally Determined Contributions 96

103 97

104 98

105 99

106 100

107 101

108 102

109 103

110 104

111 < 표 1> 기술통계량 105

112 106

113 ln ln ln ln ln ln ln ln ln ln ln ln ln ln 107

114 108

115 109

116 < 표 2> 광주시가정용전력수요함수추정결과 110

117 [ 그림 1] 전용면적 (m2) 에대한전력수요의한계효과 (%)

118 [ 그림 2] 탄소포인트 ( 원 / 년 ) 에대한전력수요의한계효과 (%)

119 [ 그림 3] 탄소은행제가입기간 ( 월기준 ) 에대한전력수요의한계효과 (%) 가입기간에대한전력수요탄력성 (%)

120 114

121 접수일 (2016 년 12 월 28 일 ), 수정일 (2017 년 2 월 5 일 ), 게재확정일 (2017 년 2 월 8 일 ) 115

122 , 2010,,., 2014,,, 23 3, pp , 2010,, The Environmental Education, 23, 2, pp ,,, 1 1, 1999, pp , 2014,,, 32 2, pp , 2009,STATA, STATA., 2012,,, pp , 2014,,,., 2012,,, 20 3, pp ,, 2007, , pp , 2004,, 04-01,., 2013, :,, 12 2, pp

123 , 2015, -, 63 4, pp , 2012, -,, 20 1, pp , < >. Al-Faris, A R The Demand for Electricity in the GCC Countries. Energy Policy 30, pp Dubin, J. A. and D. L. McFadden, An Econometric Analysis of Residential Electric Appliance Holdings and Consumption, Econometrica, Vol. 52, 1984, pp Halversen, R., 1975, Residential Demand for Electric Energy, The Review of Economics and Statistics, Vol. 85, pp Houthakker, Hendrik, 1951, Some Calculations on Electricity Consmption in Great Britain, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, 114(3), pp Narayan, P. K. and R. Smyth., 2005, The Residential Demand for Electricity in Australia: An Application of the Bounds Testint Approach to Cointegration, Energy Policy 33, pp Tae Young Jung, Ordered logit model for residential electricity demand in Korea, Energy Economics, Vol 15(3), 1993, pp

124 ABSTRACT This study analyzes whether the carbon bank policy that has been performed in Gwangju metropolitan area affects significantly reduction of residential electricity demand by applying an OLS estimation with considering heteroscedasticity. For residents who joined the carbon bank policy in 2010, we accounted period of membership for the carbon bank program, carbon point, issuance of green card, and other household characteristics as indepnedent variables. We found that the electricity charge and carbon point have inverted U-shaped relation with electricity demand. Also, we found inverted N-shaped curve between period of membership and electricity demand. Although issuance of green card was significant in mitigating electricity demand, the relative contribution was minimal. We suggested that peak load should be reference for carbon point and sort of goods and services that can be purchased by green card should be extended. Key Words:carbon bank policy, residential electricity demand, green card JEL Code: Q4, Q5 118

125 에너지경제연구제 16 권제 1 호 Korean Energy Economic Review Volume 16, Number 1, March 2017 : pp. 119~162 학술 원자력, 신재생에너지의영향력에따른 우리나라에너지부문온실가스배출요인분석 119

126 2) 3) 120

127 121

128 4) 122

129 123

130 124

131 125

132 ln ln ln ln ln ln ln ln ln ln ln ln ln ln ln ln ln ln ln 126

133 ln ln ln ln ln ln ln ln ln ln ln ln ln ln ln ln ln 127

134 ln ln ln ln ln 총에너지소비량화석연료소비량 인구 인구총에너지소비량화석연료소비량 128

135 ln ln 분석연도 기준연도 12) 129

136 130

137 ln 131

138 < 표 1> OECD 30개국과우리나라비교 < 표 2> 전력생산비중 ( 원자력, 신재생 ), 괄호안신재생 132

139 133

140 < 표 3> 온실가스배출량, 총에너지소비량, 원자력, 신재생에너지소비량추이 134

141 < 표 4> 기본데이터설명 < 표 5> 에너지부문, 전력부문 ADF 단위근검정결과 13) 14) 135

142 136

143 . 137

144 < 표 6> ARDL cointegration (Bounds Test) < 표 7> ARDL 장기결과 < 표 8> ARDL 단기결과 < 표 9> VECM 추정결과 (Cholesky Ordering: LOIL LNRE1 LTE1 LGDP LGHG1) 138

145 139

146 < 표 10> ARDL cointegration (Bounds Test) 21) 22) 140

147 < 표 11> ARDL 장기결과 < 표 12> ARDL 단기결과 < 표 13> VECM 추정결과 (Cholesky Ordering: LFPR LNRE2 LTE2 LGDP LGHG2) 141

148 23) 142

149 < 표 15> 에너지부문온실가스배출량, 총에너지소비량, 화석연료소비량추이 < 표 16> 에너지부문원자력, 신재생에너지사용추이 < 표 17> 전력부문온실가스배출량, 총에너지소비량, 화석연료소비량추이 143

150 < 표 18> 전력부문원자력, 신재생에너지사용추이 < 표19> 기본데이터설명 144

151 24) 145

152 < 표 20> 에너지부문 LMDI 분석결과 146

153 온실가스배출량 연료사용량 전환계수 배출계수 산화율 25) 147

154 < 표 21> 최종화석연료비중효과 148

155 < 표 22> 화력발전소열효율 (%) < 표 23> 전력부문발전연료소비점유량 (%) 149

156 < 표 24> 전력부문 LMDI 분석결과 150

157 < 표 25> 최종화석연료비중효과 151

158 152

159 153

160 접수일 (2017 년 1 월 23 일 ), 수정일 (2017 년 2 월 21 일 ), 게재확정일 (2017 년 2 월 23 일 ) 154

161 ,, 2011, LMDI, 10 1, 49-76, 2015,, 14 3, ,, 2015, CO, 14 3, , 2015,,,, 2012, KSP,, 12-07, 2013,,,, 2016,,, , 2010, G20,, 17 : , 2014, 2014, 2014, 2014,, 2016, 2014., 2001, CO2,., 10 4, , 2014, -,, 23 4,, 2014, - 155

162 ,, 23 4, , 2008, -, ECO 12 2, Ang, B., 2004, Decomposition Analysis for Policy Making in Energy: which is the Preferred Method?, Energy Policy, 32: Ang, B., 2005, The LMDI Approach to Decomposition Analysis: a Practical Guide, Energy Policy, 33: Bacon, Robert W.; Bhattacharya, Soma, 2007, Growth and CO2 emissions : how do different countries fare?, Environment department papers, num 113 Domenico Vitale, Massimo Bilancia, 2012, Role of the natural and anthropogenic radiative forcings on global warming: evidence from cointegration-vecm analysis, Environ Ecol Stat, 20: Iwata, H., Okada, K. and S. Samreth, Empirical study on the environmental kuznets curve for CO2 in France: The role of nuclear energy. Energy Policy, 38: Jamalludin Sulaiman, Azlinda Azman and Behnaz Saboori,2013, THE POTENTIALOF RENEWABLE ENERGY: USING THE ENVIRONMENTAL KUZNETS CURVE MODEL, American Journal of Environmental Science, 9 (2): Kaya, Y., 1990, Impact of carbon dioxide emission control on GNP growth: Interpretation of proposed scenarios, IPCC Energy and Industry Subgroup, Response Strategies Working Group, Paris 76. IEA, 2015, Energy Technology Perspectives 2015 Marzio Galeotti, Alessandro Lanza, 1999, Richer and cleaner? A study on carbon dioxide emissions in developing countries, Energy Policy, Volume 27, Issue 10, Muller, A., 2006, "Putting Decomposition of Energy Use and Pollution on a Firm Footing", Narayan, P.K., The saving and investment nexus for China: Evidence from 156

163 cointegration tests. Applied Econ., 37 : 197 Pesaran, M.H. and B. Pesaran, Working With Microfit 4.0: Interactive Econometric Analysis. Oxford University Press, Oxford, ISBN-10: , pp: 505. Pesaran, M.H., Y. Shin and R.J. Smith, Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships. J. Applied Econ., 16: S.M. de Bruyn, J.B. Opschoor, 1997, Developments in the throughput - income relationship: theoretical and empirical observations, Ecological Economics, Volume 20, Sulkowski, Adam & D. Steven White, 2014, "Emitting Happiness? Using Model-Based Cluster Analysis to Group Countries by Wealth, Development. Carbon Emissions, and Happiness" Social Science Research Network Working Papers Series. Suyi Kim, 2015, What factors cause an increase of greenhouse gas emissions in Korea?, 14 3, UNFCCC, 2004, Report on the Workshop on the Preparation of Fourth National Communications from Parties included in Annex I to the Convention. World Bank, 2007, Growth and CO2 Emissions Washington : World Bank Environmental Department. 157

164 ABSTRACT Today, the majority of countries are reducing greenhouse gas emission in an efficient way, along with the Paris Agreement, by making more room for nuclear and renewable energy which produce little carbon dioxide. In order to control the proportion of nuclear and renewable energy efficiently, it is crucial to know the influences that come out with economic variables, through an analysis in various angles. This paper is focusing on those relationships between the change in greenhouse gas emission amount and the variables such as nuclear and renewable energy usage, GDP, etc., based on the Environmental Kuznets Curve(EKC) theory. This paper conducted ARDL, VECM, LMDI tests and has observed South Korea s status among OECD. In energy sector and electricity sector, it had ARDL and VECM analysis that confirmed whether they correspond with EKC theory in both long and short term. In conclusion it has reviewed the population effects, economic growth effects, energy intensity effects, dependence effects on fossil fuels and emission index effects through LMDI analysis, and has emphasized the importance of proportion of nuclear and renewable energy by specifically analyzing the dependence effects on fossil fuels when those energies are transformed into fossil fuels. Keywords : GHG, Nuclear, New Renewable Energy, ARDL, VECM, LMDI 158

165 [ 그림 1] 에너지부문, 전력부문 ARDL 분석결과 159

166 [ 그림 2] 에너지부문향후예측 (forecast) < 표 14> 전력부문 OLS 결과 160

167 [ 그림 3] 에너지부문충격반응함수 161

168 [ 그림 4] 우리나라 GDP 증가율, GDP 대비산업별비중크기 [ 그림 5] 에너지부문화석연료별소비량 [ 그림 6] 에너지전환별온실가스배출량추이 162

169 에너지경제연구제 16 권제 1 호 Korean Energy Economic Review Volume 16, Number 1, March 2017 : pp. 163~190 학술 시변파라미터일반화해밀턴 -plucking 모형을이용한전력소비의선제적경기국면판단활용연구 * 163

170 164

171 165

172 166

173 ~ 167

174 ln 168

175 [ 그림 1] 제조업전력판매량 (a) 로그변환 (b) 증가율 May-00 May-03 May-06 May-09 May-12 May May-00 May-03 May-06 May-09 May-12 May

176 < 표 1> 제조업전력판매량데이터의기초통계 170

177 α τ τ τ β β α α α α α σ φ φ φ σ τ α β α α 171

178 φ φ π σ σ σ σ π π σ σ 172

179 θ θ θ τ θ 173

180 α α γ α α α α φ φ α α α ε π ε 174

181 α α α γ θ α α α φ φ α π δ α α ε ε α α η α 175

182 α α η ψ ψ η η ψ π α 176

183 ψ ψ ψ ψ ψ ψ ψ σ α π σ α 177

184 α π γ < 표 2> 벤치마크모형및확장모형 I 추정결과 φ φ σ σ σ π α γ θ 178

185 η η ψ [ 그림 2] Bartlett 의 t 검정과이의 2 표준편차신뢰구간 ψ 179

186 [ 그림 3] 벤치마크모형에따른전력소비위축기 (Pr( ) 180

187 [ 그림 4] 벤치마크모형에따른경기선행성판단 181

188 [ 그림 5] 벤치마크모형에따른경기변동과경기동행지수비교 θ θ 182

189 [ 그림 6] 전력소비잠재증가율 α β 183

190 β β α γ β β σ σ [ 그림 7] 시변파라미터 ( β ) 184

191 185

192 접수일 (2017 년 2 월 3 일 ), 게재확정일 (2017 년 2 월 22 일 ) 186

193 (2011),? 17 2,, (2015), EVIEWS, (2000), GDP, 21 1,, (2005), 2000, 23 4,, (2002), (2), (2013),, 62 2, (1999),, (2014),, KIET 193, (2002),, 50 4, (1997),, 3 1,, (2012),, 21 3, (2011),, 13 1, Arora, V. and J. Lieskovsky(2014), Electricity Use as an Indicator of U.S. Economic Activity, EIA Working Paper. 187

194 Bellone B.(2005), Classical Estimation of Multivariate Markov-Switching Models using MSVARlib, Ferguson, R., Wilkinson, W. and R. Hill(2000), Electricity use and economic development", Energy Policy, Vol. 28 Issue 13, Filardo, A.(1994), Business cycle Phases and their Transitional Dynamics, Journal of Business and Economic statistics, Guidolin, M. and Y. M. Tam(2010), A Yield Spread Perspective on the Great Financial Crisis: Break-Point Test Evidence, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Working Paper, No. 026A. Hamilton, J. D.(1989), A New Approach to th Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle, Econometrica Vol. 57. No. 2, Harvey A. C. and P. H. J. Todd(1983), Forecasting Economic Time Series with Structural and Box-Jenkins Model, Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, Vol Jumbe, C. B. L.(2004), Cointegation and causality between electricity consumption and GDP: empirical evidence from Malawi, Energy Economics Vol. 26. Issue 1, Kim, C. J.(1994), Dynamic Linear Model with Markov-Switching, Journal of Econometrics, Vol. 60, Kim, C. J.(1999), State-Space Models with Regime-Switching: Classical and Gibbs-Sampling Approaches with Applications, MIT Press. Kim, C. J. and C. R. Nelson(1999), Friedman s Plucking Model of Business Fluctuations: Tests and Estimates of Permanent and Transitory Components, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 31, Lam, P. S.(1990) The Hamilton Model with a General Autoregressive Component: Estimation and Comparison with Other Models of Economic Time Series, Journal of Monetary Economics, 26, Thoma, M.(2004), Electrical energy usage over business cycle," Energy Economics, Vol. 26. Issue 3,

195 Narayan, P. K. and A. Prasad, "Electricity consumption-real GDP Causality Nexus: Evidence from a Bootstrapped Causality Test for 30 OECD Countries," Energy Policy, February Vol.36, No. 2, 2008, Yoo, S. H., "Electricity Consumption and Economic Growth: Evidence from Korea," Energy Policy, Vol. 33, No. 12, 2005,

196 ABSTRACT As electricity consumption is a useful real-time proxy for economic activity, this paper investigates whether electricity consumption has a leading economic information and there is asymmetry of the economic cycle. We present a new model called time-varying parameter generalized hamilton-plucking model. We have reached the two broad conclusions. First, It is found that electricity consumption has an average lead of 2 months at peaks and an average lead of 3~4 months at trough. Second, the electricity consumption increases when the economy is booming and it is reduced when the economy is in recession. In other words, electricity consumption has asymmetries over business cycle. Key Words: Electricity consumption, Time-varying parameter generalized hamilton-plucking model, business cycle 190

197 에너지경제연구 Korean Energy Economic Review Volume 16, Number 1, March 2017 : pp. 191~214 학술 에너지기업의주식수익률에미치는국제유가의 수요와공급충격의영향력 191

198 192

199 193

200 194

201 195

202 196

203 197

204 < 표 1> 변수의정의및추정방법 Ω Ω Ω Ω 198

205 199

206 200

207 201

208 Ω Ω Ω Ω Ω Ω Ω Ω Ω Ω Ω Ω 202

209 < 표 2> 기초통계량 203

210 204

211 205

212 < 표 3> 유가충격이에너지기업의주식수익률에미치는영향 206

213 207

214 [ 그림 1] 유가충격에대한에너지기업의누적주식수익률반응 Accumulated Response Accumulated Response of Return to SShock Accumulated Response Accumulated Response of Return to SShock Accumulated Response of Return to DShock 10 Accumulated Response of Return to DShock

215 접수일 (2017 년 2 월 2 일 ), 게재확정일 (2017 년 3 월 2 일 ) 209

216 : pp : pp1-21. Baek, J., and Seo, J. Y A Study on Unobserved Structural Innovations of Oil Price: Evidence from Global Stock, Bond, Foreign Exchange, and Energy Markets. Review of Pacific Basin Financial Markets and Policies 18 : pp ~ Balcilar, M., Gupta, R., and Wohar, M. E Common Cycles and Common Trends in the Stock and Oil Markets: Evidence from More than 150years of Data. Energy Economics 61 : pp Baltagi, B. H Economic Analysis of Panel Data. John Wiley and Sons the 5th edition : pp Baltagi, B. H., Wu, P. X Unequally Spaced Panel Data Regressions with AR(1) Disturbances. Econometric Theory 15 : pp Bouri, E., Chen, Q., Lien, D., and Lv, X Causality between Oil Prices and the Stock Market in China: The Relevance of the Reformed Oil Product Pricing Mechanism. International Review of Economics and Finance 48 : pp Diaz, E. M. and de Gracia, F. P Oil Price Shocks and Stock Returns of Oil and Gas Corporations. Finance Research Letters 20 : pp Diaz, E. M., Molero, J. C., and de Gracia, F. P Oil Price Volatility and Stock Returns in the G7 Economies. Energy Economics 54 : pp Ding, Z., Liu, Z., Zhang, Y., and Long, R The Contagion Effect of International Crude Oil Price Fluctuations on Chinese Stock Market Investor Sentiment. Applied 210

217 Energy 187 : pp Fama, E. F. and French, R. K The Cross-section of Expected Stock Returns. Journal of Finance 47 : pp Fama, E. F. and French, R. K Common Risk Factors in the Returns on Stocks and Bonds. Journal of Financial Economics 33 : pp3-56. Fama, E. F. and French, R. K Disappearing Dividends: Changing Firm Characteristics or Lower Propensity to Pay? Journal of Financial Economics 60 : pp3-43. Ferson, W. E. and Harvey, C. R. Harvey The Risk and Predictability of International Equity Returns. Review of Financial Studies 6 : pp Ghosh, S., and Kanjilal, K Co-movement of International Crude Oil Price and Indian Stock Market: Evidences from Nonlinear Cointegration Tests. Energy Economics 53 : pp Granger, C. W., Huang, B., and Yang, C A Bivariate Causality between Stock Prices and Exchange Rates: Evidence from Recent Asian Flu. The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance 40 : pp Gupta, R., and Wohar, M Forecasting Oil and Stock Returns with a Qual VAR Using over 150years off Data. Energy Economics 62 : pp Harris, L Cross-Security Test of the Mixture of Distribution Hypotheses. Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis 21 : pp Hausman, J. A Specification Tests in Econometrics. Econometrica 46 : pp Hsing, Y Impacts of Fiscal Policy, Monetary Policy and Exchange Rate Policy on Real GDP in Brazil: A VAR model. Brazilian Electronic Journal of Economics 6 : pp1-12. Huang, S., An, H., Gao, X., and Sun, X Do Oil Price Asymmetric Effects on the Stock Market Persist in Multiple Time Horizons? Applied Energy 185 : pp Jensen, M Agency Costs of Free Cash Flow, Corporate Finance and Takeovers. 211

218 American Economic Review 76 : pp Joo, Y. C., and Park, S. Y Oil Prices and Stock Markets: Does the Effect of Uncertainty Change over Time? Energy Economics 61 : pp Kang, W., de Gracia, F. P., and Ratti, R. A Oil Price Shocks, Policy Uncertainty, and Stock Returns of Oil and Gas Corporations. Journal of International Money and Finance 70 : pp Kilian, L Not All Oil Price Shocks are Alike: Disentangling Demand and Supply Shocks in the Crude Oil Market. American Economic Review 99 : pp Lee, K. and Ni, S On the Dynamic Effects of Oil Price Shocks: A Study Using Industry Level Data. Journal of Monetary Economics 49 : pp Li, Q., Cheng, K., and Yang, X Response Pattern of Stock Returns to International Oil Price Shocks: From the Perspective of China s Oil Industrial Chain. Applied Energy 185 : pp Liljeblom, E. and Stenius, M Macroeconomic Volatility and Stock Market Volatility: Empirical Evidence on Finnish Data. Applied Financial Economics 7 : pp Liu, X., An, H., Huang, S., and Wen, S The Evolution of Spillover Effects between Oil and Stock Markets across Multi-scales Using a Wavelet-based GARCH BEKK Model. Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications 465 : pp Lu, F., Qiao, H., Wang, S., Lai, K. K., and Li, Y Time-varying Coefficient Vector Autoregressions Model based on Dynamic Correlation with an Application to Crude Oil and Stock Markets. Environmental Research 152 : pp Peng, C., Zhu, H., Jia, X., and You, W Stock Price Synchronicity to Oil Shocks across Quantiles: Evidence from Chinese Oil Firms. Economic Modelling 61 : pp Reboredo, J. C., and Ugolini, A Quantile Dependence of Oil price Movements and Stock Returns. Energy economics 54 : pp Roll, R Industrial Structure and the Comparative Behavior of International Stock 212

219 Market Indices. The Journal of Finance 47 : pp3-41. Stulz, R. M Managerial Discretion and Optimal Capital Structure. Journal of Financial Economics 26 : pp3-28. Zhu, H., Guo, Y., You, W., and Xu, Y The Heterogeneity Dependence between Crude Oil Price Changes and Industry Stock Market Returns in China: Evidence from a Quantile Regression Approach. Energy Economics 55 : pp

220 ABSTRACT Through panel data regression and impulse-response analysis, this study examines the effects of supply and demand shocks of oil price derived by structural vector autoregressive method suggested by Kilian(2009) on stock returns of energy firms. Current study contributes to academic field in that it explains the effects of supply and demand shocks on stock return in terms of input-cost and demand effects in Finance theory. Main test results are as follows. First, positive supply shock leads to increasing stock return with improvement of cash flow in terms of input-cost effect. Second, positive demand shock results in falling stock return attributed to increasing inflationary pressure and risk aversion of investors in terms of demand effect. Third, not only asset size but also dividend payout ratio and market portfolio return affect the stock returns of energy firms with negative and positive direction, respectively in line with those of Fama and French(2001, 1993). Key Words:Supply shock, Demand shock, Asset size, Dividend payout ratio, Market portfolio return 214

221 에너지경제연구 투고안내 에너지경제연구원에서는 에너지및자원 환경경제 분야의연구활성화와전문화를도모하고자, 한국자원경제학회와공동으로전문학술지 에너지경제연구 를매년 2회지속적으로발간하고있습니다. 한국연구재단등재학술지인 에너지경제연구 에수록할논문을다음과같이모집하오니 에너지및자원 환경경제 관련분야전문가여러분들의많은관심과투고를바랍니다. - 다음 - 투고대상 : 관계전문가및대학원생원고매수 : 200자원고지 80매이내 (A4용지 15매이내 ) 내용 : 에너지및자원 환경경제 관련분야학술논문, 정책연구접수시기 : 상시접수발간시기 : 매년 3월말일, 9월말일문의 : 남지은행정원 ( , journal@keei.re.kr) 논문제출 : 투고시에는논문투고신청서를먼저제출하여야하며, 양식을에너지경제연구원홈페이지 (htt:// 의공지사항 ( 제목 : 논문모집공고 에너지경제연구 ) 에서다운로드받아작성하시기바랍니다.

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223 에너지경제연구제 16 권제 1 호 ISSN 발행인편집인등록번호발행처인쇄처발행일 박주헌이근대 김수이경기사 한국자원경제학회에너지경제연구원 ( 사 ) 한국척수장애인협회인쇄사업소 2017년 3월 31일 문의 : 에너지경제연구원연구기획팀 ( 남지은행정원 ) 전화 : / 팩스 : / journal@keei.re.kr 주소 : 울산광역시중구종가로

224 Korean Energy Economic Review Volume 16, Number 1 March 2017 An Analysis on the Mediating Effect of Electricity Saving Consciousness in Residential Electricity Saving Behavior - Application and Limitation of Perspective of Behavioral Economics / JaeHwan Jung, Seung-Jin Kang The Historical Decomposition of South Korea's Electricity Market Prices / Won-Cheol Yun Effect of Consumer's Cost Saving and Reduction Effect of Carbon Dioxide due to Supply for Water Saving Devices / Jeongin Kim, Changsoo Oh Effects of Carbon Bank Policy on Reduction of Residential Electricity Demand / Jeong Hwan Bae, Mee Jeong Kim, Haeyoung Jung Driving Forces of the changes in GHG Emissions of Nuclear, New Renewable Energy / Yong Been Kim Identifying Business Cycle with Electricity Consumption : time-varying parameter generalized hamilton-plucking model / Kwon Sik Kim, Seung Hwan Oh The Effects of Supply and Demand Shocks of Oil Price on the Stock Returns of Energy Firms: Evidence from Firms Listed in KOSPI / Ji-Yong Seo KOREAN RESOURCE ECONOMICS ASSOCIATION KOREA ENERGY ECONOMICS INSTITUTE

에너지경제연구제 16 권제 1 호 Korean Energy Economic Review Volume 16, Number 1, March 2017 : pp. 35~55 학술 전력시장가격에대한역사적요인분해 * 35

에너지경제연구제 16 권제 1 호 Korean Energy Economic Review Volume 16, Number 1, March 2017 : pp. 35~55 학술 전력시장가격에대한역사적요인분해 * 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 < 표 1> 표본자료의기초통계량 42 [ 그림 1] 표본시계열자료의추이 43 < 표 2> 수준및로그차분변수에대한단위근검정결과