2010 년도타당성재조사보고서 부산영상센터건립사업 공공투자관리센터 한국개발연구원
요 약
요약 제 Ⅰ 장타당성재조사의개요 1. 사업의배경및목적 96 09 14, 8 3 96,,,,, 2. 사업의추진경위및근거 04 460( 230) 05 05.11 : ( )
07. 4 : (460 969) 07. 4 : ( KDI) * 07. 5 : * 08. 2 : (460 691) * 50% 345, 08. 6 : (691, ) 08. 9 : 08.10 : 08.12 : ( 50%) 09. 6 : ( 933) ( ) 09. 6 : ( ) 09. 9 : ( ) 09.11 : ( ) * 691 1,624 491 3 100 20 - (1,624, 54,335 ) (B/C, AHP) ( -753, 09.12.23) AHP
3. 사업내용 1467, 12km 32,140, 54,335 9, 1 1,624 ( 10. 8) - 2010 8, 32,218.36 1,195 1) < 표 1> 부산광역시총사업비요구내역 ( 09.11) ( 10.08) (: ) < > 69,115 162,400 119,480.2 * 62,695 145,294 112,307.4 - - - 6,420 10,357 7,172.8 3,779 4,854 3,492.4 2,498 3,993 3,429.4 143 1,570 251.0 ( ) 25,876 54,335 32,218.36 :
< 표 2> 부산영상센터건축규모변경주요현황 ( 09. 11) 2) ( 10. 8) 1, 6 1, 9 1, 9 25,876 54,335 32,218.36 ( 1, 2, 2, 1), ( 1, 2) ( 1, 2) - 1) 163m, 163m, : 691 :1,624 1,195 262 590 212 : 1) 182m, 4, 2008 2) - 4. 사업기대효과,, (),,,,
, 제 Ⅱ 장기초자료분석및주요쟁점 1. 국내외영화산업현황 가. 국내영화산업 2007 3 2,045 1 87.3% ( 2 7,991), 2 2) 4,054 12.7% (2006), 4,790, 2 2,885(71.4%) 3,065 (9.6%), 1,129(3.5%), 645(2.0%), 609(1.9%) 38.6%, 26 12.8% 2007 321, 24,369.215 2007 2 3,935, 2006 1,834 2007 183
,, 47, 4, 4, 128 나. 전세계영화산업현황및전망, 10, 2009 3.05%, 2012 5 1.64% 10 5 309 10, 97 9 3. 국내외영화제및부산국제영화제 2010 FIAPF(International Federation of Film Producers Associations) 4 49., 13
< 표 3> 세계유명영화제개최현황 1946 1951 1932 1996 62 60 66 14 5 2 8~9 10 50 1.8 100 1.5 70 1.2 70 0.8 (2009) (2009) (2010)) 84 383 156 355 20,000,000 16,000,000 8,800,000 100.7 6 13 8 11 (2007) 35(, ) 43(, ) 4.5 19 (4 3,698 25,000 ) (3, 1,800 13,000 ) (2 1,239 ) (1, 3, 1, 684 32,000, 54,335 ) 3), (March Du Film) (European Film Market)
< 표계속 > 1976 1985 1972 1948 34 (2009) 26 (2010) 39 (2010) 44 (2009) 9 1 1 7 70 1 5 70 8 55 6 (2009) 316 (2009) 271 (2010) 318 (2010) 232 (2009) $20,000,000 $7,000,000 19 11 13 (2010) 25 (5 1,300 14,000 ) (2010 ) () 15 35 ( ) 20 (3 17) 13 (Cine Mart) 1 :, 2008 ~2010 2 : 3 :,, 2008,,,,,,, 8, 60 315 3,000 20
< 표 4> 주요국제영화제개최현황 (2008 년 ) 1) (:,, %) 30 140 42 42 1,991 587 50,500 35,690 86.0 40 195 217 206 2,480 2,215 70,100 65,209 82.4 35 147 5 5 746 553 4,462 1,889 17.4 34 117 84 84 728 690 15,445 2,559 73.2 39 202 114 114 1,433 870 44,409 36,480 54.8 30 82 122 76 1,315 1,033 32,154 22,546 83.2 40 173 136 113 1,916 1,761 62,596 52,733 83.4 60 315 728 629 2,687 2,374 198,818 151,434 72.3 : 1) ( ), ( ), ( ), (), ( ), ( ), (), ( ) 2) : ID : 2008, 1996, '' (2004), 2007, 2008, - 2009 36 15 2010 10 7 ( )~15 ( ), 9,,, - 37 ( 10 )
4. 부산의공연시설 35 1,000 (1,423 ), (1,606 ) 1,000 KBS (3,388 ) - 20-30 3) MBC (905 ), (868 ), (704 ), (708 ) 1,000 9, 12 240 2011 7 266, 2012 4,000 5. 조사의쟁점 가. 사업추진상의쟁점사항 - 691
, -, - 1,000, 나. 조사의대상과결론의범위 2008 2008 -
- 4) - - - - - 다. 타당성재조사분석상의쟁점사항 - : - : (, ) - -
- (2008 ) -, - (CVM) -, - 4(,, ) : 6( ) CVM - CVM, - ( ) CVM CVM -,
- - 2008. - - -
제 Ⅲ 장비용추정 1. 기존타당성 (2008. 2) 검토 2008 2 3, 3 691.1 626.9-242.3 (,,, ) < 표 5> 기수행타당성재조사공사비분석요약 (2008. 2) 1 2 3 27,682 27,682 25,876 25,876 88,511 85,668.8 78,433.9 62,694.8 319.7 309.5 303.1 242.3 - - -
2. 타당성재조사사업계획검토,,,, 1,624 - ( ) < 표 6> 타당성재조사총사업비개요 ( 기존타당성재조사의최적대안과비교 ) ( ) ( ) ( ( 3)) () () 4,285 20,818 13,343 14,838 18,965 10,192 5,742 9,313 9,313 1,011 5,239 5,239 25,876 54,335 38,087 69,115.4 162,402.7 119,480.2 62,694.8 152,045.4 112,307.4 3,779.3 4,854.2 3,492.4 2,498.1 3,933.1 3,429.4 143.2 1,570.0 251.0 6,420.6 10,357.3 7,172.8 1, 6 1, 9 1, 9 : 182m, 4, 2008. ( 1,200 )
3. 비용추정결과 1) 총사업비의집계,.,,,,,,,,,,, Big Roof, Small Roof,, -,
< 표 7> 총사업비집계 ( 부가세포함 ) (: ) ( ()) ( ) () (1+2) 69,115.4 162,402.7 158,949.4 119,480.2 105,151.7 1. 62,694.8 152,045.4 149,824.8 112,307.4 99,115.4 113,200.7 112,860.0 89,120.5 74,661.5 16,997.6 16,172.4 9,292.9 10,698.7 10,797.8 10,158.2 6,960.2 6,720.1 4,547.7 4,340.7 3,406.3 2,871.6 5,815.3 5,634.5 3,010.3 3,727.5 686.3 659.0 517.2 436.0 2. 6,420.6 10,357.3 9,124.6 7,172.8 6,036.3 3,779.3 4,854.2 4,854.2 3,492.4 3,211.3 2,498.1 3,933.1 3,933.1 3,429.4 2,601.9 143.2 1,570.0 337.3 251.0 223.1
2009 2011 < 표 8> 검토안의총사업비연차별배분계획 ( 부가세별도 ) (: ) 2009 2010 2011 20,901.2 41,802.5 76,637.8 139,341.5 4,412.9 4,412.9 715.1 1,430.2 1,430.2 3,575.5 61.4 122.6 122.6 306.6 5,189.4 1,552.8 1,552.8 8,295.0 26,090.6 43,355.3 78,190.6 147,636.5 < 표 9> 대안의총사업비연차별배분계획 ( 부가세별도 ) (: ) 2009 2010 2011 13,827.0 27,654.0 50,699.1 92,180.1 2,919.3 2,919.3 473.1 946.1 946.1 2,365.3 40.6 81.1 81.1 202.8 3,433.0 1,027.2 1,027.2 5,487.4 17,260.0 28,681.2 51,726.3 97,667.5 2) 경상운영비 (2008. 2), (2010. 6)
< 표 10> 경상운영비집계 ( ) ( ) 1,880,000 1,245,500 928,412 628,059 25,958 25,958 2,834,370 1,899,517 (5 ) 147,000 147,000 2,981,370 2,046,517 (: ) : 1),,, 5 2), 3) 부지비용및잔존가치 2008 12 31. < 표 11> 잔존가치추정 (: ) 59,454 59,454 N/A : 1467, ( ), 2008 12 31 (2010.8), (2008.2) 1, 2, 1. Audio System, Video System, Control System,.,
, 2 IT,,, 5 5 < 표 12> 영상장비비의감가상각비추정 (: ) 659,426-329,713 329,713 ( 2 ) (2) 898,722 898,722 2 1,887,861 1,228,435 5 : 1) (2010.8) 2), 4) 매몰비용, 2005 2008 < 표 13> 매몰비용추정 2005 2006 2007 2008 (: ) (VAT) 513 2,159-2,659 5,367 - - - 22 22 5,389
제 Ⅳ 장수요추정 5-5(2005 ~2009 ) 926,742 1 185,348-2009 5 36, 8,740-4 1,684 2009 11.1%, 19.3% ( ) = 5 / 35,772, 20,574-2009 13,740 5,684 41.4% 76,734-5 198,818 38,372, 82,311 < 표 14> 부산국제영화제기간의관람객수요추정 ( 총좌석수비율기준 ) (: ) 5 5 35,772 38,372 76,734 82,311
2011 ~2040, 1,, - 1 2012 4.43 2020 5.4 - ( ) = 1 / 2012 384,843 2020 455,865 2040 408,494 [ 그림 1] 부산영상센터일반상영관으로서의관람자수 500,000 400,000 300,000 200,000 100,000 0
제 Ⅴ 장편익추정,,,,, ( ) (HPM), (TCM), (CAM), (CVM) CVM, CVM CVM (Focus Group Interview)
100 1,000 10,000 7 : 1,000, 2,000, 3,000, 4,000, 5,000, 7,000, 10,000 : (2005 ) 100, 1,000, 4:6 : KDI : (face-toface) : 2010 3 18 ~ 3 25 : 2010 3 29 ~ 4 9 636 380-620 WTP < 표 15> 지불거부및분석대상표본 1,000 636 380 620 WTP 2,403 WTP 1,491
< 표 16> 부산영상센터건립사업에대한가구당연간 WTP 추정결과 t- t- WTP 2,403 (1,774 ~ 3,001) 7.9086** 1,491 (1,101~ 1,842) 8.1001** WTP KOSIS 2010 ( 17,152,277 ) < 표 17> WTP 를사용한부산영상센터의연간총편익 2010 WTP ( ) () (271 ) 2,403 651,561.06 (1,444 ) 1,491 2,153,762.23 (1,715 ) 2,805,323.29 : WTP WTP 0.16(=( (271 ) / (1,715 ) 100) WTP 0.84(=(1,444 / 1,715 ) 100) 1,635.54 281 227 (2008 12 ) 270 2008 WTP 1,345, 1,656, 259 4
제 Ⅵ 장경제성분석 2008 30 - : 2009 ~ 2011 - : 2012 ~ 2041 : 5.5% 0.51, 0.71 < 표 18> 부산영상센터의경제성분석결과 (: ) 109,304 109,304 212,495 155,021 B/C 0.51 0.71 (NPV) -103,191-45,717 (IRR) - - - -, - CVM,
,, < 표 19> 비용및편익의변화에따른민감도분석 ( 초기요구안 ) B/C ratio NPV( ) -20% 0.64-60,692-10% 0.57-81,942 0%() 0.51-103,191 10% 0.47-124,441 20% 0.43-145,690-20% 0.41-125,052-10% 0.46-114,121 0%() 0.51-103,191 10% 0.57-92,261 20% 0.62-81,330,, /, 20% 20%. < 표 20> 할인율변화에따른민감도분석 ( 수정요구안 ) (: ) / 3.5% 117,803 160,102-42,299 0.74 4.5% 113,443 157,797-44,354 0.72 5.5% 109,304 155,021-45,717 0.71 6.5% 105,372 151,994-46,622 0.69 7.5% 101,634 148,860-47,226 0.68
< 표 21> 비용및편익의변화에따른민감도분석 ( 수정요구안 ) B/C ratio NPV( ) -20% 0.88-14,713-10% 0.78-30,215 0%() 0.71-45,717 10% 0.64-61,219 20% 0.59-76,721-20% 0.56-67,578-10% 0.63-56,647 0%() 0.71-45,717 10% 0.78-34,787 20% 0.85-23,856
제 Ⅶ 장정책적분석 1. 정책적분석의틀 < 표 22> 본사업의정책적분석항목 2. 지역균형발전 가. 지역낙후도 16 8, 168 14 < 표 23> 부산광역시지역낙후도지수및순위 16 14 9 5 9 15 2 5 2 8 / 16 168 79 54 5 74 110 8 20 7 14 / 168 :, ( 5 ), 2009.
나. 지역경제파급효과 0.1530% 0.1012% 2007 < 표 24> 지역경제활성화효과 1,476 977 832.60 550.80 (GRDP, 2008 ) 544,357.02 544,357.02 0.1530% 0.1012% (: ) : 1) 2008 2) AHP GRDP. 3) 2007 40 0.17796%. 3. 정책의일관성및추진의지 가. 관련계획및정책방향과의일치성 (2004), 2010 (2005) - 5 2010 -,,
,,,, - - 5 나. 사업추진의지및선호도, 2008 () 15 5,, 다. 사업의준비정도및추진절차상의적절성 (2005.3 ) 1
2008 (691), -, 4. 사업추진상의위험요인 가. 재원조달가능성 -, (2009-2013) 2009 284.5 2013 335.3 4.2% 2009 3.5 2013 4.0 3.4%
< 표 25> 국가재원의분야별배분 (:, %) 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 284.5 291.8 306.6 322.0 335.3 4.2 1. R&D 12.3 13.6 14.9 16.6 18.4 10.5 2. 16.2 14.4 15.1 15.9 17.0 1.3 3. SOC 24.7 24.8 25.3 25.9 26.7 2.0 4. 16.9 17.2 17.4 19.2 17.6 1.2 5. 74.6 81.0 85.3 90.7 96.9 6.8 6. 38.2 37.8 40.7 44.3 48.3 6.0 7. 3.5 3.7 3.8 3.9 4.0 3.4 8. 5.1 5.4 5.5 5.7 5.8 3.5 9. () 28.5 29.6 30.9 32.3 33.7 4.2 10. 3.0 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.6 11. 12.3 12.9 13.2 13.7 14.0 3.3 12. 48.6 49.5 52.7 54.0 54.8 3.0 :, (2009~2013) (2009) 2 6,345-3 1,747 7,286-8,144 466.5 295.3 < 표 26> 문화체육관광부예산현황 (: ) 2008 2009 2010 2,635,405 2,874,630 3,174,734 728,596 760,559 814,428 : 691 50% 1,278.5
- 1,170 ~ 1,144 1,278 < 표 27> 부산시중기재정계획 ( : ) 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 307,764 56,198 58,504 62,687 63,811 66,564 12,524 2,004 2,498 2,889 2,467 2,666 6,364 1,170 1,455 1,657 938 1,144 1,579 145 96 301 466 571 3,147 488 596 572 779 712 1,434 201 351 359 284 239 : 2009-2013 나. 환경성평가 5. 문화관광적파급효과 2002 (Esplanade),,,
, 제 Ⅷ 장결론 2008 691 1 0.71, (Esplanade), 1 2
< 표 28> 부산영상센터건립사업타당성재조사결과요약 (: ) ('08.2 ) 1) ( 09.11 ) 1) ( 10.8 ) 1) ( ) () 2006. 12-2008. 12 1467 ( ) 25,876 54,335 32,218.36 54,335 32,218.36 2004 ~2010 2004 ~2011 2004 ~2011 62,695 152,045 112,307 149,825 99,116 3,779 4,854 3,492 4,854 3,211 2,498 3,933 3,429 3,933 2,602 143 1,570 251 337 223 6,421 10,357 7,173 9,124 6,036 69,115 162,403 119,480 158,949 3) 105,152 3) B/C 0.80 0.51 0.71 AHP 0.503 : 1) 1 2) 3) 2005 2008 5,389 ( 2,367, 22 ) 4)