3 3 2004 3
3, EU, 3*, core 3 core (228)** (171) (305) NAFTA (349) 2004 10 EU EU-CIS, +ASEAN 10 2005FTAA MercosurEU FTA * '- (uni-multipolar) ' ** 2003 GDP (%), GDP 1
,,, 90 3 1 2 3 18701914 1950,60 1980,90 - - -, - :, - -, (, ), ( ) - - 3 - Taylorism :, - - : - GATT - : - : FDI - - - 70 post war - 70, - - 80 -, - inward outward - - 2
3 3 - - VS - - - - 3 - - - EEC - ASEAN - EU - NAFTA - - 3
3 The world economy is flying on one engine(=us economy) : ( 00-02) ( ; %) - 2000 - GDP (306% ; ), - : 80, : IMF - 95 37% 2 - - 80 - :, 4
1 Mega, - 2004 8 10 (EU) - 2004 GDP (PPP ) - - - 10 3GDP - -, (%) 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2004 : GDP 2004 EU+ 8, 0023%p CIS 2004 272% 63% : IMF 5
2008 NAFTA 321%2003 28% EU BRICs, 3 GDP 2050 ( ) 67 (189) 109 (307) 124 (349) 103 (201) 160 (314) 164 (321) EU25 NAFTA 137 ( ) 4 109 26 144 445 352 2003 2008 2003 2008 2050 : +ASEAN10 GDP : IMF, World Economic Outlook WEFA, Global Insight : : IMF, World Economic Outlook WEFA, Global Insight Goldman Sachs, Dreaming with BRICs, 200310 6
3 (EU), 518% EU 3 (2002) (%) 3 ( : ) 2,018 1,852 1,465 1,315 1,095 1,055 60 50 40 30 NAFTA 518 479 382 NAFTA EURO Zone 20 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2002 : ASEAN 10 + : IMF, DOTS 90, 7
3 (inter-regional) 2002 1 90 2, NAFTA, NAFTA, 3, NAFTA 1990 2002 685 (122) 1,572 (279) ( : ) 1,472 (112) ( : ) 3,265 (248) 523 (43) 876 (72) 740 (135) 996 (182) NAFTA 1,001 (50) 1,984 (98) 1,181 (108) 1,520 (139) NAFTA : (%) 8
Triad Pattern of FDI Stocks (FDI), EU, 3 (outward stock)80%, (inward stock)5060% 3 (2001 ) EU EU -,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, -,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, - :,,, - 3 FDI 30% 3 9
3 EU 3, EU, 85 5,870 2001 48,540, 3 69% EU 327 (2001) FDI 3,952 (2001) 890 1985( ) 2001( ) (2,380) 90 ( : ) (13,820) 6,410 640 ( : ) 1,280 160 6,910 1,910 EU (3,050) 50 240 (440) EU (31,720) 70 880 3 : 5,870 3 / FDI = 60% (3,000) 3 : 48,540 3 / FDI = 69% : 10
FDI,, FDI FDI 90 M&A FDI 90 221% 2002 136% FDI 2002527 81% 19911996 FDI 2002 73% 32% ( ) 121% 100% 106% FDI 2,543 210% 358% 66% ( ) 44% 55% 81% 86% 78% FDI 6,512 590% 11
(FDI), 90 767% 2002865% FDI FDI FDI, (FDI ) 02% 111% 21% 19911996 268% 99% FDI 2,806 499% FDI 06% 229% 2002 09% 66% 53% FDI 6,474 636% 12
3,, 3-2004 8 EU -, ASEAN FDI ( 500 ) -, -, 1 -, ( ) 2002 -, -,,, -,, ( ) -,, 13
3, 3, (%) 25 20 15 10 5 0 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2002 : IMF, DOTS 94NAFTA, 2002 116% 31% 14
3 inter-regional, Risk 3 3 -, -, Risk 3 - - - -,, regional 15
(FDI), 90 FDI,? 70 80 90 2000 - - - - - 70 NICs - -, - - - - : 90, - 80, -, 70 FDI -, - - R&D, - FDI FDI 19902002 1990 : 138% : 14,580 : 82% : 43,000 Supply Network 2002 : 34,370 : 78,380 16
3, 3 -,, - (, M&A) - - -, FDI, - - - (, ) - - - 1 - - (, EU, ) - - - / -, (, ) - (,,, ) -, - (, ) (, ) - : World Investment Report 2003 17
,,, 3(Triad) ( ) 500 400 300 200 100 0 243 465 * : *,, : UNCTAD, World Investment Report 2003 45 - (46 ) - 70 -,, - 80 - - NAFTA (1994) -,, 18
90, 1 (60) 2 3 4,,, (2001) 04 302 234 57 777 : Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2032 ( : US$) - 70 25%, - EUGSP ( 0311) - R&D (,, ) - - -, 19
, Kolin Mlada Boleslav Esztergom Gyor Bielsko Biala Gliwice Lublin Poznan Warsaw Zeran Craiova Pitesti Kaliningrad Moscow Togliatti Vsevolozhsk Bratislava Trnava Novo Mesto Toyota/PSA(2005) Volkswagen/Skoda Suzuki Audi Hungaria Motor Fiat GM/Opel(Opel Agila) Daewoo FSO Volkswagen(T4) Daewoo FSO Daewoo(Lanos) Daewoo(Matiz) Renault(Dacia Nova) BMW(3 series) Renault(X-90)(2005) GM/AvoVAZ Ford(Focus) Volkswagen PSA/Peugeot(2006) Renault(Clio) : UNCTAD, World Investment Report 2003 -,,, -, - EU EU ( : %) EU 2002 31 18 27 25 32 2004 24 18 19 19-20
, ASEAN ASEAN Honda Toyota Nissan Ford - -,,, ASEAN - Southeast Asian parts sourcing company - Southeast Asian parts sourcing company ASEAN 1 -,, Denso -,,, Matsushita ASEAN Isuzu Motors Volvo -, Isuzu Mesin -, Sony - (Sony Display Devices), (Sony Siam Industries) 21
3, : - : ( 69, Houthankker & Magee) - : 35 40(2050), 40% (2050) : 41 53(2050), 14% (2050) ( : UN) -, - 85, - EU, 22
R&D R&D Global Networks of Intelligence - - - R&D R&D -, 3 - R&D - R&D R&D Matsushita - R&D 5,510, 74% - R&D- - - Suzhou R&D 23
EU ( ), FTA, - EU - 2004 10, EU25-12 - Mercosur FTA - NAFTA - 2005 (FTAA) - FTA - ASEANFTA - ASEAN 4FTA - - EU - - EU FTA 24
3 core, BRICs, 3 BRICs EU - - - (Home base) - - - - - 25
Country Risk - - - -, - EU (GSP) -, - Country Risk 3 - Commodity, R&D -, 26
BRICs High-risk, High-return, Risk BRICs BRICs(,,, ) 40 G6(,,,,, ) Goldman Sachs, 2004 World Economic Forum 2010 BRICs G6 1 ( ) ( ) ( ) & Brazil 1763 Russia 1441 2,633 2,913 4958 6624 - - - - -,,, -, India 1,0196 499 5652 - Goldman Sachs : 30 5% - China 1,2949 1,031 2,9517-8% - 40% -, 27
, () (683 )62% 424, 26 45 5 145, 35 (, ) 23 97, 6, 5 -, low tech,,, middle tech, high tech -,, EMS(Electronics Manufacturing Services) 28
Sharp (LCD, IC), Sharp Sharp,, 90 : = 528:472( 024 034), (168%), (135%; ), (117%) - 9 - LCD, 330 (26 ) - LCD :, - : - ( ) : 035 - Wrexham ( ) : 04 4-2001, LCD TV:CRT TV=45:55-2004, LCD TV 80% - LCD 1 R&D R&D 1 Sharp 23 27 13 22 4 5 1 4 7 27 63 - : -30,900, -24,200 - (4), (3), (2),,,,,,,, 29
R&D R&D,, R&D ( ) -,,, -, -, R&D - R&D Coordinator - -, -, - -, - - R&D - 30
R&D, R&D NokiaMetanational 67 2,, 90 2002 50, 9 (,,,,,,,, ) - - - -, - R&D, - R&D - GSM GSM - 31
Conclusion, EU, 3, core 3,,,, Risk, R&D, R&D 32