북한 SLBM 위협증대와한국군의대비방향 북한 SLBM 위협증대와한국군의대비방향 하태영 * 1) Ⅰ. 서론 Ⅱ. 북한의점증되는핵 미사일및 SLBM의위협 Ⅲ. SLBM 대응시한국형 3축체계와한 미 4D의제한사항 Ⅳ. 북한의 SLBM에대한한국군의대비방향 Ⅴ. 결론 Abstract Increasing North Korean SLBM threat and ROK s Military Countermeasures This Paper analyze the increasing threat of North Korea s SLBM under development and the limitations of ROK s 3K (Kill-Chain, KAMD, and KMPR) system and the application of 4D (Defense, Detect, Disrupt, and Destroy) concept. It presents countermeasures to deter and defend against the North s SLBM threat: 1) strike North Korean submarine and block the submarine base strategically; 2) reinforce surface warfare and anti-submarine warfare operationally; 3) strengthen ROK s capability to counter the North s SLBM threats in the long-term. Key Words : North Korean missile threat, SLBM, Kill-Chain, KAMD, KMPR, Military Countermeasures. *,, na37hty@naver.com
국방정책연구제 33 권제 3 호 2017 년가을 ( 통권제 117 호 ) Ⅰ. 서론 2017, SLBM(Submarine Launched Ballastic Missile, SLBM),,. 7 ICBM(Intercontinental Ballastic Missile, ICBM), 8 IRBM(Intermediate Range Ballastic Missile, IRBM). 9 6. 500km 1.,.., SLBM,. 3 (Kill-Chain, KAMD, KMPR) 4D(Defense, Detect, Disrupt, Destroy ). 3 4D SLBM. SLBM 3 4D, SLBM. SLBM 70
북한 SLBM 위협증대와한국군의대비방향.. 3 4D. SLBM,,. Ⅱ. 북한의점증되는핵 미사일및 SLBM 의위협 1. 북한의점증되는핵 미사일위협 (2014) (absolute weapon), (WMD: Weapons of Mass Destruction). 2006. 10 2016 1 4 9 5. ( 2017. 3. 16). 1) 4 100% TV ( 2016. 1. 7). 1) ( ) 2017 3 16. 71
국방정책연구제 33 권제 3 호 2017 년가을 ( 통권제 117 호 ) 4,., 2~7, 1. 2006 10 10,. 1, 600 300~550km (, 2016). CSIS(2016) 2016 3, ICBM, ICBM,. 2016 ICBM,.. Joel S. Wit SUN YOUNG AHN(2015), 2020, 10 20, 50, 100., 2016 5,. 2) 2) http:www.munhwa.com/news/news_print ( : 2017. 1. 2).; (Siegfried S. Hecker) 20~40kg ( 4~8 ), 6kg. (HEU) 250~400kg 10~25 14~33, 8~9. 72
북한 SLBM 위협증대와한국군의대비방향. 20 100.. < 표 1> 신포급잠수함에탑재가능할것으로판단되는미사일현황 3) KN-02 SCUD-B SCUD-C 1 2 SRBM SRBM SRBM MRBM MRBM 6.4m 10.94m 10.94m 9.65m 10m( ) 0.65m 0.88m 0.88m 1.5m 1.5m 2,000kg 5,860kg 6,095kg 650kg 650kg HE/NBC HE/NBC... 1 1 1 120-160km 300km 550km 2,400~2,500km 2,400~2,500km CEP 150m 450m 1,000m 1,900m 1,900m 600 ( ) ( ) ( ) * :, (2017. 5. 14)., SLBM. SLBM < 1> (KN-02, SCUD-B/C, 1,2 ) 4). 3), 1,500, (, keel) (, sail) 11m,. 4) KN-02 SCUD-B, SCUD-C 11m (sail 11m ). 73
국방정책연구제 33 권제 3 호 2017 년가을 ( 통권제 117 호 ) 2. 북한의가시화되는 SLBM 위협 2015 5 SLBM. 2016 SLBM, 2 7. SLBM. 8 24 SLBM 500km., (, 2016). 600kg (ICBM) (SLBM). 2013 3, (, 2015). 2016 8 24 SLBM 500km SLBM, 2017 2 13 2 SLBM (MRBM) ( 2017. 2. 13)., SLBM. 2016 4 SLBM ( 2016). SLBM, SLBM. Shane Smith(2015) SLBM 2 (Second Strike Capability),, 74
북한 SLBM 위협증대와한국군의대비방향. (2017. 6. 13) 2017. 5) SLBM,,,, 6, SLBM, SLBM. SLBM < 2>. SLBM SS-N-6 SLBM. 6) < 표 2> 주요국들의 SLBM 탑재잠수함및북한의신포급잠수함현황 ( ) ( ) (ton) / (m) SLBM( ) (km) (14) (14) 20,943 170.7/12.8 (24) 12,000 (13) (1) - (6) - (3) (3) 26,925 15,120 13,463 19,711 171.2/24.6 166/12 160/12 170/13.5 SS-NX-32(30) SS-N-23(16) SS-N-18(16) SS-N-30(16) 8,300 12,000 6,500 8,300 (4) (4) 15,980 149.9/12.8 (16) 12,000 (4) (4) 14,335 138/12.5 M-45(16) 6,000 (5) (5) 11,023 137/11.8 JL-2(12) 7,400 (1) (1) 7,000 111.6/11 (12) 750 (1) (1) 2,000 67/6.7 *SAIL 11 KN-11/ (1) 2,500 * : Jane s Fighting Ship 2015-2016, the Military Balance 2016, p. 15; ICBM 20, SLBM. SLBM 5) Dacota L. Wood. 2016, INDEX OF U.S Military Strength;,,. 6) 1,500 (keel), 11m. 75
국방정책연구제 33 권제 3 호 2017 년가을 ( 통권제 117 호 )., ICBM( ), SLBM( ), SLBM... 2016 2015 5 2016 8 4 SLBM., ( 2016).. SLBM, SLBM. SLBM 1kt 550km, (THAAD: Terminal High Altitude Area Defense, ) KAMD. 7) 7) http:www.munhwa.com/news/news_print ( : 2017. 1. 2). 76
북한 SLBM 위협증대와한국군의대비방향 Ⅲ. SLBM 대응시한국형 3 축체계와한 미 4D 제한사항 (2016) 3 (Kill Chain, KAMD, KMPR ). 4D(Defense, Detect, Distrupt, Destroy, 4D). 3 4D SLBM. (2016) SLBM 3 4D. 1. 킬체인의구축실태및제한사항분석 가. 구축실태 (Kill Chain, ), (signal),. (find), (fix), (target), (engage) 30. 1991,. (TEL: Transporter Erector Launcher) (U.S. Joint Chiefs of 77
국방정책연구제 33 권제 3 호 2017 년가을 ( 통권제 117 호 ) Staff, 2017). 1,000 100 ~250 ( 2017. 7. 4). 8),..,, (JDAM: Joint Direct Attack Munitions), ( 2016; 2017. 6. 23). 9) 2017 6 23 2C 0,000. -ER 000 F-16 (JASSM: Joint Air-to-Surface Standoff Missile) ( 2017. 6. 27). 나. 제한사항분석, 30. (2016 ) 8) 2016(, 2017) 100, (DIBMAC) 250. 9) 2017 6 23 800km 2C,. 2C KMPR. 1979. 78
북한 SLBM 위협증대와한국군의대비방향..,? SLBM ICBM?? C4I (PGM: Precision Guided Munition)?(, 2016)?. (2014) 800km. (TEL). 100~250 50, 30., (SLBM) 30. SLBM., SLBM, 2015, (70 ) 70%( 50 ), (, 2015). SLBM 79
국방정책연구제 33 권제 3 호 2017 년가을 ( 통권제 117 호 ), SLBM. 2. 한국형미사일방어의구축실태와제한사항분석 가. 구축실태 (KAMD: Korea Air Missile Defense, KAMD)., 1. KAMD 1,000km SPY-1, 1,000km. PAC-2,3. KAMD, 10~30km (, 2016).,, (M-SAM), (L-SAM) 2020 ( 2016)., 80
북한 SLBM 위협증대와한국군의대비방향. (2017. 7. 29),. 10) 나. 제한사항분석 KAMD. 1,000. SPY, 00km 0 PAC-2. PAC-3. (M-SAM) (L-SAM). 11) (ADD: Agency for Defense Development), 2020. SM-3. SM-3 (Hit-to-Kill) ( 2017. 6. 19). 2016 KAMD, SLBM. 2017 KAMD, 10) 2017. 7. 29; ICBM 軍. 11) (Hit-to-Kill) (M-SAM), 2020. 40km (L-SAM) KAMD. 81
국방정책연구제 33 권제 3 호 2017 년가을 ( 통권제 117 호 ) SLBM. 12) 2016 8 SLBM SLBM. ( 2017. 2. 13). KAMD 155 (MDL) SLBM (NLL). - - -. 17 120 SLBM. ( 2017. 3. 23). 1,000. (48 ) 1~2 PAC-3 1.5 (2017 GDP 2.39%). 2016 8 SLBM 500km (JADIZ: Japan Air Defense Identification Zone).,,,, SLBM SLBM. 2017 5 2 550. 300 km. 12) Jun Ji-hye, http://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/common/print,(2017. 1. 10), pp. 2-3. 82
북한 SLBM 위협증대와한국군의대비방향 2014 2, ( 2017. 6. 22).,. SLBM SM-3. SM-3 10. 3. 한국형대량응징보복의구축실태및제한사항분석 가. 구축실태 (KMPR: Korea Massive Punishment & Retaliation, KMPR),. ( 2016).,. (2016) 83
국방정책연구제 33 권제 3 호 2017 년가을 ( 통권제 117 호 ),. 13) KMPR. KMPR 3 2C, 2018 2020 2C. 나. 제한사항분석 KMPR, (ADD). UDT(Underwater Demolition Team).. ~ m,,., MC-130. 13) 2016 11 29 KMPR Kill-Chain KAMD. 84
북한 SLBM 위협증대와한국군의대비방향.. 800km 500kg 1ton (,,,, 2017. 7. 25). 4. 한 미 4D 작전개념의구축실태및제한사항분석 가. 구축실태 4D(Defense, Detect, Distrupt, Destroy, 4D), 2014 ( 2016).,,,. (, 2016). 4D SLBM. 4D SLBM,.. 85
국방정책연구제 33 권제 3 호 2017 년가을 ( 통권제 117 호 ) 나. 제한사항분석 SLBM,. SLBM.,,,.. 14) 40.. Karl von Clausewits (, 1995),.,,.. SLBM, SLBM. 14), 120 240. 86
북한 SLBM 위협증대와한국군의대비방향 Ⅳ. 북한의 SLBM 에대한한국군의대비방향,. SLBM. 2015 SLBM, SLBM 3, 4~5. SLBM ( 2017. 3. 9). SLBM,,. 1. 단기적이며전략적방안 : 잠수함기지봉쇄및강습으로출항차단 가. 유사시잠수함기지봉쇄로 SLBM 탑재잠수함출항차단및격침,, SLBM. (2017) SLBM.. 209 214 87
국방정책연구제 33 권제 3 호 2017 년가을 ( 통권제 117 호 ). SLBM 209 214 SLBM... 15).,. 16) 51 (, 2012). 나. 잠수함기지선제강습으로 SLBM 무력화, ( 功者 ), (, ). (, 2015)..,. 15),,. 16) 1-2... 88
북한 SLBM 위협증대와한국군의대비방향...??. 17), SLBM., SLBM SLBM.. (, 2017. 7. 19). SLBM 1. 2. 중기적이며작전 전술적방안 : 수상 대잠작전능력강화및감시 대응 가. 잠수함이동로상수상작전능력강화및실시간감시 대응 70, 2015 17) ( 徵候 ) (Chech). 89
국방정책연구제 33 권제 3 호 2017 년가을 ( 통권제 117 호 ) (SLBM) (IISS, 2016)... SLBM,. SLBM, SLBM SLBM.,,. 18) SLBM. SLBM,., 2017 3 78 ( 2017. 4. 25; 2017. 4. 26) 19). 나. 잠수함이동로상대잠작전능력강화및실시간감시 대응 18),. 19),,. 90
북한 SLBM 위협증대와한국군의대비방향. SLBM. 214 AIP NATO. SLBM,.. - - - -. (2016) (WSM: Water Space Management) (PMI: Prevention of Mutual Interference).,., P-8. 20) 209 214. 20)... 91
국방정책연구제 33 권제 3 호 2017 년가을 ( 통권제 117 호 ) 3. 장기적전력건설방안 : 대공능력강화, SSN 건조포함기동함대건설 가. 세종대왕 (DDG) 함에 SM-3 탑재등대공능력강화 (2016) SLBM., ( 從心 ) (SM-3). (2012),., (, 2014). SM-3, SLBM. SM-3., MD, SM-3. 2020 3 SM-3, 3 SM-3 SLBM. SM-3, (KAMD). (2014) ( 一石二鳥 ) 92
북한 SLBM 위협증대와한국군의대비방향. (2015),,.,,,. batch-iii. (MFR: Multi Function Radar),. (KDDX: Korean next generation Destroyer). 2017 1, 2, 3 3 1.,,, 1 2. 15 3 2020 3 SM-3 (, 2016). 2C 500kg 21).. 21) 1979 300km, 500kg, 800km, 500kg. 2017. 93
국방정책연구제 33 권제 3 호 2017 년가을 ( 통권제 117 호 ) 나. SSN 건조를포함한기동함대건설 1.5, SSN. SLBM, SLBM SM-3. SLBM. ( 4~6knots).,,,, (, 2016).? 2?.,,, (, 2016). (the most stabilizing deterrent) (second strike capability). (2014),. (2008) 94
북한 SLBM 위협증대와한국군의대비방향 (The Balance of Terror).,. (America First)., (CSCAP, 2017). 2017 3 3 (option) ( 2017. 3. 21).,. SLBM ( 價性比 )?,. SLBM SLBM. Ⅴ. 결론 SLBM. SLBM. SLBM. Kill-Chain KAMD, KMPR. 95
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