Initiating coverage Korea / Pharmaceutical/Biotech 21 January 2016 OVERWEIGHT Stocks under coverage Company Rating Price Target price 메디톡스 (086900 KS) BUY 535,600 600,000 LG 생명과학 (068870 KS) BUY 68,500 85,000 ( 주 : 1 월 19 일종가기준 ), Analyst 3774 7165 jaechul.park@miraeasset.com See the last page of this report for important disclosures
, Analyst, 3774 7165, jaechul.park@miraeasset.com Table of contents 2
, Analyst, 3774 7165, jaechul.park@miraeasset.com 3
, Analyst, 3774 7165, jaechul.park@miraeasset.com 4
, Analyst, 3774 7165, jaechul.park@miraeasset.com 5
, Analyst, 3774 7165, jaechul.park@miraeasset.com 6
, Analyst, 3774 7165, jaechul.park@miraeasset.com 7
, Analyst, 3774 7165, jaechul.park@miraeasset.com 8
, Analyst, 3774 7165, jaechul.park@miraeasset.com 9
, Analyst, 3774 7165, jaechul.park@miraeasset.com 10
, Analyst, 3774 7165, jaechul.park@ @miraeasset.comm 11
, Analyst, 3774 7165, jaechul.park@miraeasset.com 12
, Analyst, 3774 7165, jaechul.park@miraeasset.com 13
, Analyst, 3774 7165, jaechul.park@miraeasset.com 14
, Analyst, 3774 7165, jaechul.park@miraeasset.com 15
, Analyst, 3774 7165, jaechul.park@miraeasset.com 16
, Analyst, 3774 7165, jaechul.park@miraeasset.com 17
, Analyst, 3774 7165, jaechul.park@ @miraeasset.comm 18
, A Mirae A Analyst, 3774 71 Asset Securities 65, jaechul.park@ @miraeasset.com m 19
, Analyst, 3774 7165, jaechul.park@miraeasset.com 20
, Analyst, 3774 7165, jaechul.park@miraeasset.com 21
, Analyst, 3774 7165, jaechul.park@miraeasset.com 22
, Analyst, 3774 7165, jaechul.park@miraeasset.com Appendix
, Analyst, 3774 7165, jaechul.park@miraeasset.com 24
, Analyst, 3774 7165, jaechul.park@miraeasset.com 25
, Analyst, 3774 7165, jaechul.park@miraeasset.com 26
, Analyst, 3774 7165, jaechul.park@miraeasset.com 27
, Analyst, 3774 7165, jaechul.park@miraeasset.com 28
, Analyst, 3774 7165, jaechul.park@miraeasset.com 29
, Analyst, 3774 7165, jaechul.park@ @miraeasset.comm 30
, Analyst, 3774 7165, jaechul.park@miraeasset.com 31
, Analyst, 3774 7165, jaechul.park@miraeasset.com é é é 32
, Analyst, 3774 7165, jaechul.park@ @miraeasset.comm 33
, Analyst, 3774 7165, jaechul.park@miraeasset.com 34
, Analyst, 3774 7165, jaechul.park@miraeasset.com 华东宁 医药 35
, Analyst, 3774 7165, jaechul.park@ @miraeasset.comm 36
, Analyst, 3774 7165, jaechul.park@ @miraeasset.comm 37
, Analyst, 3774 7165, jaechul.park@ @miraeasset.comm 38
, Analyst, 3774 7165, jaechul.park@miraeasset.com 39
, Analyst, 3774 7165, jaechul.park@miraeasset.com 40
, Analyst, 3774 7165, jaechul.park@ @miraeasset.comm 41
, Analyst, 3774 7165, jaechul.park@miraeasset.com 42
, Analyst, 3774 7165, jaechul.park@miraeasset.com 43
, Analyst, 3774 7165, jaechul.park@miraeasset.com 44
, Analyst, 3774 7165, jaechul.park@miraeasset.com Company Analysis
Initiating coverage Korea / Pharmaceutical & Biotech 21 January 2016 BUY (19 Jan 2016) 600,000 535,600 Upside/downside (%) 12.0 KOSDAQ 681.25 3,030 309,000-600,000 17.21 36.5 Forecast earnings & valuation Fiscal year ending Dec-14 Dec-15 E Dec-16 E Dec-17 E 76 87 101 129 50.0 50.7 56.9 80.8 43.6 41.5 46.7 66.0 43.6 41.5 46.7 66.0 7,713 7,339 8,257 11,665 205.0 (4.8) 12.5 41.3 41.5 65.5 64.9 45.9 32.8 48.9 47.8 33.7 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.4 22.2 24.1 20.2 14.8 61.3 42.7 35.6 37.3 (93.0) (49.5) (39.1) (49.6) Performance (KRW) Price (LHS) Rel. to KOSDAQ (RHS) 640,000 590,000 540,000 490,000 440,000 390,000 340,000 290,000 Jan15 Apr15 Jul15 Oct15 Performance 1M 3M 12M 9.3 24.2 45.9 13.6 31.1 46.6, Analyst 3774 7165 jaechul.park@miraeasset.com (%) 140 130 120 110 100 90 80 70 See the last page of this report for important disclosures 46
, Analyst, 3774 7165, jaechul.park@miraeasset.com 2 47
, Analyst, 3774 7165, jaechul.park@miraeasset.com +2sd +1sd avg. -1sd +2sd +1sd avg. -1sd 3 48
, Analyst, 3774 7165, jaechul.park@miraeasset.com 4 49
, Mirae A Analyst, 3774 716 Asset Securities 65, jaechul.park@ @miraeasset.com m 5 50
, Analyst, 3774 7165, jaechul.park@miraeasset.com 6 51
, Analyst, 3774 7165, jaechul.park@miraeasset.com 7 52
, Analyst, 3774 7165, jaechul.park@miraeasset.com 8 53
, Analyst, 3774 7165, jaechul.park@miraeasset.com Summary financial statements 9 54
Initiating coverage Korea / Pharmaceutical/Biotech 21 January 2016 BUY 목표주가 85,000 원 현재주가 (19 Jan 2016) 68,500 원 Upside/downside (%) 24.1 KOSPI 1,889.64 시가총액 ( 십억원 ) 1,136 52 주최저 / 최고 43,050-84,000 일평균거래대금 ( 십억원 ) 13.90 외국인지분율 (%) 8.1 Forecast earnings & valuation Fiscal year ending Dec-14 Dec-15 E Dec-16 E Dec-17 E 매출액 ( 십억원 ) 426 431 456 485 영업이익 ( 십억원 ) 16.2 25.5 30.6 38.2 당기순이익 ( 십억원 ) (2.0) 12.8 16.1 22.1 수정순이익 ( 십억원 ) (2.1) 12.8 16.1 22.1 EPS ( 원 ) (127) 774 972 1,332 EPS 성장률 (%) 적전 흑전 25.6 37.0 P/E (x) (286.5) 86.4 70.5 51.4 EV/EBITDA (x) 18.0 22.5 21.0 18.6 배당수익률 (%) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 P/B (x) 2.4 4.3 4.2 3.9 ROE (%) (0.8) 5.0 6.0 7.7 순차입금 / 자기자본 (%) 103.3 98.7 95.8 89.9 Performance (KRW) Price (LHS) Rel. to KOSPI (RHS) 91,000 86,000 81,000 76,000 71,000 66,000 61,000 56,000 51,000 46,000 41,000 Jan15 Apr15 Jul15 Oct15 Performance 1M 3M 12M 절대수익률 (%) 15.1 15.1 53.2 KOSPI 대비상대수익률 (%) 19.5 22.1 53.9 박재철, Analyst 3774 7165 jaechul.park@miraeasset.com (%) 190 180 170 160 150 140 130 120 110 100 90 LG 생명과학 (068870 KS) See the last page of this report for important disclosures 55
박재철, Analyst, 3774 7165, jaechul.park@miraeasset.com LG 생명과학 068870 KS ( 십억원 ) 기업가치 비고 (X) 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 평균 2015E 2016E 2017E 2 56
박재철, Analyst, 3774 7165, jaechul.park@miraeasset.com LG 생명과학 068870 KS 3 57
박재철, Analyst, 3774 7165, jaechul.park@miraeasset.com LG 생명과학 068870 KS ( 백만달러, 십억원, %) 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E 2025E 2030E 2035E 주요가정 ( 백만달러, 십억원, %) 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E 2025E 2030E 2035E 주요가정 FY5 Sales ( 백만달러 ) 4 58
박재철, Analyst, 3774 7165, jaechul.park@miraeasset.com LG 생명과학 068870 KS 시기 내용 5 59
박재철, Analyst, 3774 7165, jaechul.park@miraeasset.com LG 생명과학 068870 KS 6 60
박재철, Analyst, 3774 7165, jaechul.park@miraeasset.com LG 생명과학 068870 KS 7 61
박재철, Analyst, 3774 7165, jaechul.park@ @miraeasset.com LG 생명과학 0688700 KS 제품명 제조사 WHO PQ 형태 가격 ( 달러, 2016 년 ) 8 62
박재철, Analyst, 3774 7165, jaechul.park@miraeasset.com LG 생명과학 068870 KS 9 63
박재철, Analyst, 3774 7165, jaechul.park@miraeasset.com LG 생명과학 068870 KS 구분 제품 적응증 개발 전임상 임상1 상임상2 상임상3 상 NDA 10 64
박재철, Analyst, 3774 7165, jaechul.park@miraeasset.com LG 생명과학 068870 KS Global Korea India Japan China Brand name Avastin Enbrel Herceptin Humira Lantus MabThera/Rituxan Remicade INN bevacizumab etanercept trastuzumab adalimumab insulin glargine rituximab infliximab Indication Cancer Autoimmune disease HER2+ breast cancer Autoimmune disease Diabetes Autoimmune disease Autoimmune disease Originator Roche Pfizer/Amgen Roche Abbvie Sanofi Roche J&J/Merck Patent Expiry (US) Jul. 2019 Aug. 2019 Jun. 2019 Dec. 2016 Feb. 2015 2018 Onwards Sep. 2018 Patent Expiry (EU) Jan. 2022 Aug. 2015 Aug. 2015 Apr. 2018 May. 2015 2014/15 Onwards Feb. 2015 Sales (2014, USD m) 7,018 8,538 6,863 12,543 8,428 7,546 9,240 Sales (2020E, USD m) 6,474 7,286 4,561 14,460 4,642 5,150 7,074 Amgen/Allergan Boehringer Ingelheim Pfizer Sandoz (Novartis) Celltrion Samsung Bioepsis/ Biogen/Merck Hanwha Chemical LG Life Science Biocad Biocon/Mylan Coherus Dr. Reddys Epirus Intas Biopharmaceuticals Reliance Life Sciences Fujifilm Kyowa/ AstraZeneca Nichi-Iko Hisun-Pfizer Genor Biopharma (Walvax Biotech) Shanghai Biotech Shanghai CP Guojian/Cipla ABP 215 ABP 980 (US/EU) (EU/Asia/LatAm) BI 695502 (US/EU/Asia/LatAm) PF-06439535 PF-05280014 (US/EU/KR/AU/RU) (US/EU) GP2015 (EU) CT-P16 (KR) CT-P05 (KR) Herzuma(CT-P06) (KR), US/EU-P3 SB8 SB4 (EU-NDA/ SB3 (EU) KR-launched) (EU/KR/India) HD203 HD201 (KR) (EU) LBEC0101 (JP/KR) BCD-021 BCD-022 (EU/India) (Russia/Ukraine) MYL-1420O Unknown Bmab-200 (India) EU-Phase1 (US/India) (EU) CHS-0214 (US/EU/JP) Baxter, Daiichi Sankyo BOW 030 (US) Intacept (India) R-TPR-023 R-TPR-016 (India) (India) Unknown (JP) AnBaiNuo (CN) GB222 GB221 (CN) (CN) Unknown (CN) Reumatocept CMAB302 (CN/India/LatAm) (CN) ABP 501 (US/EU/AU/CA) ABP 798 (EU) ABP 710 (AU) BI 695501 Basaglar BI695500 (US/EU) (LY2963016) (US/EU/LatAm) PF-06410293 PF-05280586 PF-06438179 (US/EU) (US/EU) (US/EU/JP/KR) GP2017 GP2013 (EU) (EU) CT-P17 Truxima(CT-P10) Remsima(CT-P13) (KR) (US/EU/LatAm) (EU/JP/KR) SB5 SB9 (EU) (EU) SB2 (EU, KR-NDA) LBAL LBRx LBIM-0101 (KR) (KR) (KR) BCD-057 BCD-020 (Russia) (EU/India/LatAm) BMO2 Basalog (US/EU) (India) CHS-1402 Unknown (US/EU) (US) Reditux (India) BOW 050 BOW 015 (US) (India) Mabtas (India) R-TPR-021 R-TPR-017 Unknown (India) (India) (India) FKB-327 (US/UK) NI-071 (JP) GB232 GB242 (CN) (CN) Discovery Preclinical IND Phase I Phase II Phase III NDA Approval 11 65
박재철, Analyst, 3774 7165, jaechul.park@miraeasset.com LG 생명과학 068870 KS ( 십억원, %) 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 2014 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15E 2015E 1Q16E 2Q16E 3Q16E 4Q16E 2016E 12 66
박재철, Analyst, 3774 7165, jaechul.park@miraeasset.com LG 생명과학 068870 KS 13 67
박재철, Analyst, 3774 7165, jaechul.park@miraeasset.com LG 생명과학 068870 KS Summary financial statements 손익계산서 12 월결산 ( 십억원 ) 2014 2015E 2016E 2017E 매출액 426 431 456 485 매출원가 225 220 233 247 매출총이익 201 210 223 238 판매비와관리비 184 185 192 200 영업이익 ( 조정 ) 16 25 31 38 영업이익 16 25 31 38 순이자손익 (9) (10) (10) (10) 지분법손익 0 0 0 0 기타 (5) (0) 0 0 세전계속사업손익 2 16 21 29 법인세비용 4 3 5 7 당기순이익 (2) 13 16 22 당기순이익 ( 지배주주지분 ) (2) 13 16 22 EPS ( 지배주주지분, 원 ) (127) 774 972 1,332 증가율 & 마진 (%) 2014 2015E 2016E 2017E 매출액증가율 2.0 1.2 6.0 6.3 매출총이익증가율 0.1 4.8 6.1 6.9 영업이익증가율 12.5 57.3 19.9 25.1 당기순이익증가율 적전 흑전 25.6 37.0 EPS 증가율 적전 흑전 25.6 37.0 매출총이익율 47.1 48.8 48.9 49.1 영업이익률 3.8 5.9 6.7 7.9 당기순이익률 (0.5) 3.0 3.5 4.6 대차대조표 12 월결산 ( 십억원 ) 2014 2015E 2016E 2017E 유동자산 262 259 263 271 현금및현금성자산 50 60 52 49 단기금융자산 0 0 0 0 매출채권 106 82 87 92 재고자산 103 115 121 128 기타유동자산 2 2 2 2 비유동자산 391 429 446 465 유형자산 305 329 333 340 투자자산 1 1 1 1 기타비유동자산 86 100 112 124 자산총계 653 688 709 736 유동부채 97 142 145 149 매입채무 50 57 61 64 단기금융부채 29 66 66 66 기타유동부채 18 19 19 19 비유동부채 306 285 287 288 장기금융부채 279 252 252 252 기타비유동부채 27 34 35 36 부채총계 404 427 432 437 지배주주지분 249 261 277 299 비지배주주지분 0 0 0 0 자본총계 249 261 277 299 BVPS ( 원 ) 14,817 15,495 16,453 17,766 자료 : LG 생명과학, 미래에셋증권리서치센터추정치 자료 : LG 생명과학, 미래에셋증권리서치센터추정치 현금흐름표 12 월결산 ( 십억원 ) 2014 2015E 2016E 2017E 영업현금 16 71 46 53 당기순이익 2 14 16 22 유무형자산상각비 32 36 37 38 기타 13 7 1 1 운전자본증감 (31) 13 (8) (8) 투자현금 (52) (70) (54) (56) 자본적지출 (32) (51) (37) (39) 기타 (20) (19) (18) (18) 재무현금 62 9 0 0 배당금 0 0 0 0 자본의증가 ( 감소 ) 0 0 0 0 부채의증가 ( 감소 ) 62 9 0 0 기초현금 24 50 60 52 기말현금 50 60 52 49 자료 : LG 생명과학, 미래에셋증권리서치센터추정치 주요투자지표 12 월결산 2014 2015E 2016E 2017E 자기자본이익률 (%) (0.8) 5.0 6.0 7.7 총자산이익률 (%) (0.3) 1.9 2.3 3.1 재고자산보유기간 ( 일 ) 86.9 92.2 94.3 93.7 매출채권회수기간 ( 일 ) 91.0 79.9 67.7 67.3 매입채무결재기간 ( 일 ) 50.0 45.7 47.3 47.0 순차입금 / 자기자본 (%) 103.3 98.7 95.8 89.9 이자보상배율 (x) 1.8 2.7 3.2 4.0 자료 : LG 생명과학, 미래에셋증권리서치센터추정치 14 68
, Analyst, 3774 7165, jaechul.park@miraeasset.com Recommendations Distribution of Ratings ( Compliance Notice Target Price and Recommendation Chart (KRW) Stock Price Target Price 메디톡스 (086900 KS) Date Recommendation 12m target price 2016-01-21 BUY (Initiation) 600,000 710,000 610,000 510,000 410,000 310,000 210,000 110,000 Jan14 Jul14 Jan15 Jul15 Jan16 LG 생명과학 (068870 KS) (KRW) Stock Price Target Price 89,000 79,000 69,000 Date Recommendation 12m target price 2014-11-24 BUY (Initiate) 50,000 2015-02-16 BUY 53,000 (Up) 2015-04-09 BUY 76,000 (Up) Change in analyst 2016-01-21 BUY (Initiate) 85,000 59,000 49,000 39,000 29,000 Jan14 Jul14 Jan15 Jul15 Jan16