에너지경제연구 제12권 제2호

에너지경제연구 Korean Energy Economic Review Volume 12, Number 2, September 2013 : pp. 59~83 부문별에너지소비와경제성장의 인과관계분석 59

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< 표 1> 주요경제및에너지지표변화, 1990 년 2011 년 ~ [ 그림 1] 우리나라의경제및에너지관련주요지표변화, 1990 년 ~2011 년 62

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2) 여기서소표본이라함은약 25 35 개의표본을지칭한다. 69

< 표 2> 단위근검정결과 70

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< 표 3> 산업부문의 Johansen 검정의공적분검정결과 < 표 4> 수송부문의 Johansen 검정의공적분검정결과 72

< 표 5> 가정 상업부문의 Johansen 검정의공적분검정결과 73

< 표 6> Granger 인과관계검정결과 74

< 표 7> 산업부문오차수정모형추정결과 75

< 표 8> 가정 상업부문오차수정모형추정결과 76

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접수일 (2013 년 6 월 12 일 ), 게재확정일 (2013 년 8 월 12 일 ) 78

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ABSTRACT This study examines the relationship between sectoral energy consumption and economic growth for Korea from 1991 to 2011 employing the vector error-correction model estimation. With respect to the direction of causality, industrial sector is uni-directional running from energy consumption to economic growth in long term as well as short term. Transport sector, on the other hand, real GDP growth leads to energy use only in short term. Lastly, there is bidirectional causality between energy consumption and real GDP in residential and commercial sector. These findings have important policy implications, since the adoption of suitable structural policies can induce energy conservation. Key Words : Sectoral energy consumption, Economic growth, Granger causality, Vector error correction model JEL Codes : C22, L94, Q43, Q48 83