19) ( )** I * 2002 ( 072- BM2085 ) ** Don-Moon Cho(Catholic University of Korea), Neolibeal Economic Reform and Workers' Living Condition: Bankrupt Washington Consensus and the Transfer of Legitimacy Effect
IMF,, (Washington Consensus) 1),,,, (compensation) (rescue) (Weyland, 1998),, 1) World Bank(1995), Williamson(1993, 1999, 2002), Dollar & Kraay(2000, 2001, 2002), Stiglitz(2000), Galbraith(2002), Portes & Hoffman(2003), Stallings & Peres(2000), Robinson(2002)
,,,,,, -, (purified) 1990, 1995 1 30%, 2 53%, 58% 71%, 81% 1300
1994 1 54%, 1998 1 53% 2, CUT(Central Única dos Traqbalhadores) 2)?, 1994 1998, 2002,?, 3) 2), (2003) 3) 2 1, 2
,, 1964 1985 (Sarney) 1980 100% GDP (+) (-) 1986 (Cruzado) (heterodox) (stagflation) 4), < 1> 1988 1000% 1993 2700%, GDP 1980 446%, 1990 (Collor)- (Franco) 131% 4) 1985 Ribeiro (2003), Baer & Paiva(1998), Baer(2001: 173-200)
1987 1992 043% 1978 480 3890 1979 720 5580 1980 920 11000 913 1981-450 9500 1982 050 10000 1983-350 21100 1984 530 22400 1985 790 23500 1986 760 6500 1987 360 41600 1988-010 103800 1989 330 178300 1990-440 147671 43 1000 1991 110 48023 48 913 1992-090 115784 58 1161 852 1993 492 270817 54 1273 833 1994 585 109389 496 1470 915 1995 422 1478 463 1623 922 1996 266 934 546 1635 957 1997 360 748 566 1717 1033 1998-012 170 760 1682 1060 1999 080 1998 756 1529 1061 2000 436 981 714 1514 2001 151 1006 623 2002 734 * : 2001 3 ; 2001 GDP * : Baer(2001: 462-471), Amann & Baer(2002: 955), FGV(2001: II), FUNDAP(2002: 54), Stallings & Peres(2000: 120-121)
,, GDP (-), (Cardoso) (Plano Real) 1993 5 6 12 10 IMF (Washington Consensus),, 5) 1990 5) Ribeiro (2003), CUT(2000), DESEP/CUT(2000: 6-7; 2002a: 8-12), Baumann(2002), Amann & Baer(2002), Baer(2001: 199-299), Baer & Paiva(1998), Stallings & Peres(2000: 72-109, 153-201)
, 80, 1994 2 1 1 URV(unidade real de valor),, URV (cruzeiro) URV, 1994 7 URV (2750 ) 2 1970,,, 1988 575% 10 1998 156%, 1980,,,, 1991 93 20 2000 1
117 856, 1991 1995 27 (US dollar) 1996,,,,,,,,,,,,, 1995 1999 198%, GDP 1855% 1318%, 0878% 1376% 15-20% < 1> 1000% 1995 15%, 1996 97 10% 1998 17%,,,,,,
, (net portpolio investment) 1990-92 3 1995-97 45, (net direct foreign investment) 1990-92 3 1996-98 163 GDP, 1994 1995 585% 422% GDP, 1993 492% (TNCs),,,,
1994 1997 436 530 216%, 332 614 1994 104 1995 1 1997 84, 1994 GDP 05% 1995 48%, 1998 84% 1994 71% 1998 11 136%,,,, 1997 8 1998 11 IMF,, 415 1998 1999 20%
1964 CGT (pelego) 1978 ABC, 245% ABC, (novo sindicalismo) 6), (PT) 6), (1993), Alves(1985), Barros(1999: 29-45), Rodrigues(1997, 1999)
CGT CUT CGT CUT CGT CUT CGT CUT PT CGT CUT 1981-83 CGT CUT CGT,, CUT, CGT CUT 1985, CUT CGT 7) CUT 1978 128% 1980 258%, 1989 328% (Krein, 2002: 53) 7) CUT 1993 8, CGT(Central Geral dos Trabalhadores) 1983 11 1986 3 1988 CGT (Confederação Geral dos Trabalhodores) 1989 4 (Magri) (Joaquim) 9 CGT(Central) CGT CUT, CGT(Confederação) (Medeiros) 1991 3 FS(Força Sindical) CUT CUT (, 1993; Barros, 1999: 29-45)
CUT,, 1988 8) 1943 (CLT Consolidação das Leis do Trabalho), 1988,,,, 1988, 1, 3 8), 1988 Barros(1999: 17-27), O'Connell(1999), Lopes (2003), Menezes-Filho & others(2002), Gacek(1995)
, 60%, 15%, 5% 20%,, 1989 48 ( 72 ),, (dissidio), 1992 10 (Barelli) DIEESE, 1993 1993 9-12 CUT, CGT CUT, CGT 9) Barros(1999: 48-53) Manzano(2002: 24-26)
, FIESP,,,, 10), ILO 158 11), 2-5 (suspenção do contrato) 2,,,,, (cooperativas de trabalho), 25 10) Krein (2002: 10-26), CUT(2001), Freitas(2001: 3-9) 11) ILO 158,,, (Mercosur) (Freitas 2001: 13-14; CUT 2001)
, (banco de horas), 12), 1999 2% 1 1655% 1999 338% 1998 1200 1999 18% 446%,, 80, 1990,,, 12) Krein(2002: 18-26; 2003), CUT(2002: 37-38), CNM/CUT & DIEESE(2001), Manzano(2002: 49-50), Galvão (2003)
(open unemployment) < 1> 90-505% 1 505%, 2 632% 7% (hidden unemployment), (total unemployment) 1994 143% 1999 193% (CUT 2000: 6-8; CUT-EN 2002: 2-3; DESEP/CUT 2002b: 2-3) 1995 150% 2000 276%, (discouraged unem- ployment) 13), (RFFSA) 4, 1 1500 1/4, ABC 1991 1997 471% 235% 13) CUT(2000: 6-13), SMABC/DIEESE (2000: 2-9), Manzano(2002: 6-10), Amann & Baer(2002: 955-967)
CUT(DESEP/ CUT 2002b) 1993 444% 2001 473%,,, 14),, (Ramalho, 1999: 233-244) (CUT 2000: 11-13; Machado & Machado, 1998: 112-117) 1994 1996 1/4 21% 22% 2202% 2482%, 5451% 5699%, 14) Portes & Hoffman(2003), (informal proletariat) 90
, 1988 48 44 44 1995 422 44 40%, 1989 427%, 1999 424%,, CUT SMABC ABC 40 32-38, 44-45, FS Parana, 15) 15), DIEESE(2001a: 68), Manzano(2002: 27-69), Buechler(2001), CUT(2000: 6-8), OIT(1999: 250-251)
1978 1990 1990 100, 1993 1997-99 103-106 16) 1991 1998 1 765% 85% 17), 1980 90 18) DIEESE(2001a: 82-102), 20% 1994 1999 33% 36% 10% 482% 468% 16) 1990 1998 1353,,, 1061, 1039, 991, (Stallings & Peres 2000: 116-149), 17) DIEESE(2001b: 86-90), Baer(2001: 212-214), Stallings & Peres(2000: 121-131, 462-471), CUT(2000: 16-19) 18) Neri & Camargo(2002: 307-8) (Gini) (Theil) 1990 97, CEPAL(Baumann, 2002: 25-26), Amann & Baer(2002: 950-955) 90 Stallings & Peres(2000: 129-131) 1990 001 002 90
, 19),, UNDP (human development index) 1990 59 1998 74 (Amann & Baer, 2002: 950-955),,, 19) 2000 1 (DIEESE, 2001a: 88), 25% 1235 960 223%, 25% 350 312 109%
,,,,,, 1998 11 IMF 1998 1999,,,,
,,,,, 90, 1998,,
,,,,, The dominant Washington Consensus capitalizing the positive effects of neoliberal economic policies comes under attack by a set of empirical studies, and the conventional theories highlighting the opposition of workers and the general public against the neoliberal economic policies
To clear such theoretical confusions regarding neoliberal economic policies, this study aims to clarify the effects of neoliberal policies in terms of macro-economic indicators and change in living conditions, and then to identify major factors determining attitudes for or against the neoliberal policies While a series of preceding civilian governments failed in curbing run-away inflation, the Cardoso government succeeded in putting chronic inflation under control Except for that, Cardoso s neoliberal economic policies ended up with great economic failure along with such macro-economic indicators as the low rate of economic growth, worsening trade deficit, expanding financial deficit among others With regard to the living conditions, social failure was quite obvious given the hike in unemployment rate owing to the privatization of public enterprises and employment shrinkage in the manufacturing sector, the rising proportion of non-regular workers due to the relative expansion of service sector against manufacturing sector, the flexibilization of working hours and ever-worsening working conditions, stagnating or decreasing level of real income which fell short of catching up the increasing level of productivity, and the polarization of population with aggravating income inequality After all, the Washington Consensus turned out to be nothing but an ideology aimed to propagate neoliberalism without empirical ground Brazilian workers resisted consistently neoliberal economic policies, but the general public sent wholehearted support to Cardoso s neoliberal policies Workers' resistance was well grounded on the obvious principle and policy outcome of neoliberal policies, but public support for neoliberal policies was not founded on their experience and following evaluation of neoliberal policies but derived from their appreciation of Cardoso s economic stabilization policies which made a success in suppressing inflation In other words, the legitimacy was transferred from
Cardoso s preceding economic stabilization policies to his subsequent neoliberal economic policies That's why the public did not hesitate to withdraw the legitimacy once given to the neoliberal policies as they experienced the real effects of those policies and witnessed their failure whichendedupwitheconomicdisaster Key Words: Brazil, Neoliberalism, Worker, Labor Condition, Washington Consensus /,,,, : 2003 10 3 : 2003 11 14
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