Contents 주요경제지표 Major Economic Indicators 요약및평가 Summary and Assessment 경제동향주요지표 Major Indicators of the Korean Economy 1. 국내총생산(21 년불변가격) 37 Gross Dom

Transcription

1 총괄국내총생산경기소비설비투자건설투자대외거래노동시장물가금융시장재정세계경제 김성태 김성태이우열정대희김동영권규호한일수권규호한일수송인호송보라정규철이유진박윤수박소현정대희원선재김지섭양유진김성태이우열이상규신형섭구희일 본자료는 KDI 홈페이지를통해서도보실수있습니다.

2 Contents 주요경제지표 Major Economic Indicators 요약및평가 Summary and Assessment 경제동향주요지표 Major Indicators of the Korean Economy 1. 국내총생산(21 년불변가격) 37 Gross Domestic Product (at 21 Constant Prices) 2. 경기 39 Economic Activity 3. 소비 1 Consumption. 설비투자 3 Equipment Investment 5. 건설투자 5 Construction Investment 6-1. 수출, 수입및교역조건 7 Exports, Imports and Terms of Trade 6-2. 경상수지및금융계정 9 Current Account and Financial Account 7. 고용및임금 51 Employment and Wage 8. 물가 53 Price Indices 9-1. 금융시장 (I) 55 Financial Market (I) 9-2. 금융시장 (II) 57 Financial Market (II) 1-1. 세계경제동향 (I) 59 Major Indicators of the World Economy (I) 1-2. 세계경제동향 (II) 61 Major Indicators of the World Economy (II)

3 주요경제지표 Major Economic Indicators ( 전년동기대비증가율, % / Year-on-Year % Change) Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ 전산업생산 All Industry Production 광공업생산 Industrial Production 서비스업생산 Service Production 소매판매액 Retail Sales Index 설비투자지수 Equipment Investment Index 건설기성액 ( 불변 ) Value of Construction Completed (Constant Price) 수출 ( 통관 ) Exports (f.o.b.) 수입 ( 통관 ) Imports (c.i.f.) 무역수지 ( 십억달러 ) Balance of Trade (Billion US Dollars) 실업률 Unemployment Rate 취업자수 Number of Employed 소비자물가 Consumer Price 국고채 3-year Treasury Bonds 종합주가지수 KOSPI 원/ 달러환율 Won/Dollar Exchange Rate OECD 경기선행지수 OECD Composite Leading Indicator 유가 ( 두바이, 달러 / 배럴 ) Oil Prices (Dubai, US$/Barrel) ,916 1,961 2,1 2,7 1,963 1,961 1,992 1,961 1,912 1,99.2 1,172. 1,15. 1,12.1 1,19.5 1,172. 1,15. 1,172. 1, 주: 국고채수익률 종합주가지수 원/ 달러환율은기말기준, 유가( 두바이) 는기간평균기준임.

4 요약및평가 최근일부지표의부진이지속되면서우리경제의성장세가점차둔화될가 능성을시사하고있음. 내수회복세가민간소비를중심으로다소완만해지고있으며, 세가확대되면서부진이심화 수출은감소 민간소비가 아직까지완만한개선추세를유지하고있으나, 금년들어소비활성화 대책의영향이소멸되는가운데소비심리도위축되고있음. 투자는건설투자가비교적양호한회복세를유지하고있으나, 를지속하면서부진한상황 설비투자는감소세 한편, 수출은중국을중심으로세계경제성장세가둔화되고유가도예상보다큰폭으로하락하면서대부분의주력품목에서큰폭의감소세를지속하고있으며, 향후에도부진을지속할가능성이높은것으로판단됨. 생산측면에서는서비스업생산이비교적양호한흐름을나타내고있으나, 광공업생산및출하는수출감소세가확대되면서부진이심화 서비스업생산은금융 보험업, 보건 사회복지등을중심으로아직까지는최근의증가세를유지하면서경제전반의성장세를뒷받침하고있음. 그러나광공업생산및출하는수출부진이지속되는가운데내수회복세도둔화된데기인하여감소폭이확대됨. 별도의언급이없을경우모든증가율은전년동월대비기준임. 1

5 경기 : 서비스업생산증가세가대체로유지되고있으나, 심화되면서경기회복세가제약되고있음. 광공업생산과출하의부진이 12월중전산업생산은여타산업의개선에도불구하고광공업생산의부진으로전월 (2.2%) 과유사한전년동월대비 2.3% 의증가율을기록 서비스업생산은전년동월대비 3.% 의증가율을기록하며전월(3.2%) 에이어비교적양 호한증가세를지속 반면, 광공업생산은자동차(.8% -3.3%) 및 ICT(5.6% 1.3%) 등주요업종을중심 으로부진이심화되면서전월(-.1%) 보다감소폭이확대된 1.9% 의증가율을기록 제조업평균가동률도 73.8% 를기록하며여전히작년평균(76.1%) 을하회하고있어제 조업생산이저조한수준에머물러있음을시사 광공업생산지수 (3MA) 및서비스업생산지수 (3MA) ( 전년동기대비, %, 3 개월이동평균 ) 광공업생산지수 (3MA) 서비스업생산지수 (3MA) 제조업출하는수출출하와내수출하가모두둔화되면서감소폭이확대되었으며, 율은하락하는모습 재고 수출출하 (-3.1% -3.9%) 가부진을지속하는가운데내수출하(1.3%.%) 도크게 둔화되면서, 제조업출하는전월(-.8%) 보다낮은전년동월대비 1.6% 의증가율을기록 한편, 제조업재고율( 재고/ 출하비율) 은자동차및 ICT 등을중심으로전월(128.1%) 보다 낮은 122.7% 를기록하며재고가일부조정되고있음을시사 2

6 출하지수(3MA) 와재고율 ( 전년동기대비, %, 3 개월이동평균 ) (%) 출하지수 ( 좌, 3MA) 재고율 ( 우 ) 동행지수순환변동치는여전히기준치(1) 를상회하고는있으나, 전월(11.1) 보다 소폭하락한 1.9를기록 선행지수순환변동치는투자관련지표들의부진에주로기인하여전월(1.3) 보다하락한 13.8 을기록 동행지수순환변동치와선행지수순환변동치 15 ( 기준 =1) 동행지수순환변동치 선행지수순환변동치 3

7 소비: 민간소비의완만한개선추세는유지되고있으나, 금년들어소비활성화대책의 효과가빠르게소멸되고있는것으로판단됨. 12월중소매판매액지수는비교적양호한전년동월대비 3.5% 의증가율을기록하였 으나, 향후에는. 정책효과가소멸되면서소매판매의회복세가약화될것으로사료됨 형태별로는내구재가승용차판매(3.6%) 를중심으로 13.6% 증가하며양호한흐름을 이어가고있으나, 준내구재(-.%) 와비내구재(1.5%) 는회복세가둔화되고있음. 한편, 금년들어소비활성화대책의효과가소멸되면서그동안소매판매회복을주도한국산 자동차의내수판매가 1월중전년동월대비.8% 감소한것으로나타남. 서비스업생산은전년동월대비 3.% 증가하며완만한회복세를지속하고있으나, 민간 소비관련업종의증가세는상대적으로낮은수준에머물러있음. 12월중승용차판매증가의영향에도불구하고도소매업은 2.% 증가하는데그쳤으며, 숙박및음식점업은전년동월대비.6% 감소하면서부진을지속 한편, 1월중소비자심리지수는전월보다 2p 하락한 1을기록하여소비심리가지 속적으로위축되고있음. 구성항목별로는전월에이어현재경기판단 (-7p) 과향후경기전망 (-6p) 이큰폭으로하락하여 소비자심리지수의하락을주도 소매판매액지수 (3MA) 및소비자심리지수 ( 전년동기대비, %, 3개월이동평균 ) ( 기준 =1) 소매판매액지수 ( 좌, 3MA) 소비자심리지수 ( 우 ) 96

8 설비투자 : 설비투자는기계류를중심으로점차부진해지는모습 12 월중설비투자지수는기계류의부진이지속되면서전월(-.9%) 에이어감소( 전년 동월대비 -1.%) 를기록 형태별로는운송장비가 27.7% 증가하였으나, 설비투자의대부분을차지하는기계류는 12.1% 감소하며부진을지속 * 기계류( 전년동월대비, %): (9 월) -3.6 (1 월) 1. (11 월) -1. (12 월) 설비투자와관련이높은지표들도대체로부진한모습을보이고있어단기간내에설비투자가큰폭으로개선되기는어려운것으로판단됨. 기계류내수출하가 7.3% 감소하며최근의부진을지속하고있는가운데, 1월중기계류 수입액속보치(1.1~1.2) 도 9.3% 감소하여 1월의기계류설비투자도크게개선되기어 려울것으로사료됨. 제조업평균가동률도여전히매우낮은수준인 낮은수준에정체되어있음을시사 73.8% 에머물러있어설비투자수요가 다만, 국내기계수주는화력발전소건설, 원자로수주등일시적인증가요인에기인하여전 월(-1.7%) 의감소에서 35.6% 증가로전환 설비투자지수 (3MA) 및 민간국내기계수주 (3MA) 3 ( 전년동기대비, %, 3 개월이동평균 ) 설비투자지수 (3MA) 민간국내기계수주 (3MA) 5

9 건설투자 : 건설투자는건축부문을중심으로증가세가확대되고있으나, 미분양주택 수가빠르게증가하고있어중장기적으로건설업전반에부담요인으로작용할가능성 12 월중건설기성( 불변) 은토목부문의부진이완화된가운데건축부문의상승세가 확대되면서전월(5.9%) 보다높은 12.2% 의증가율을기록 부문별로는토목부문이전월(-1.6%) 의감소에서증가(3.%) 로전환되었으며, 건축부문도 전월(15.8%) 보다높은 19.3% 증가 건설수주는건축부문이감소로전환되었으나토목부문의증가세가유지되면서전년동 월대비 9.8% 증가 공종별로는건축부문이주택(-33.2%) 을중심으로 8.6% 감소하였으나, 토목부문은전월 (86.%) 에이어 52.% 의높은증가율을기록 한편, 미분양주택수가전월(9,72 호) 보다 11,788호증가한 61,512호를기록하며 빠르게확대되고있음. 다만, 아파트거래량이전년동월대비 8.5% 감소하였으나, 거래량자체는여전히높은수준 (89,3 필지) 에머물고있어아직까지는주택매매시장이위축되고있는것으로평가하기 어려움. 미분양주택수및건설기성액 (3MA) 7 ( 천호 ) ( 전년동기대비, %, 3 개월이동평균 ) 미분양주택수 ( 좌 ) 건설기성액 ( 우, 3MA) 6

10 수출 : 수출은중국등신흥국의성장세둔화및유가하락으로인해대부분의주요 품목에서큰폭으로감소하며부진이심화 1, 월중수출은주요국의경기둔화가지속되고유가가하락하는가운데 감소하면서전월(-1.1%) 보다낮은전년동월대비 18.5% 의증가율을기록 조업일수도 품목별로는선박(-32.3%), 석유류(-26.5%), 자동차및부품(-18.7%), ICT(-17.%) 등 주요품목에서큰폭으로감소하며전반적으로부진한모습 지역별로는중국으로의수출이급격하게감소(-21.5%) 하는가운데, 미국(-9.2%), 일본 (-18.2%), 아세안(-19.7%) 등으로의수출도비교적큰폭으로감소 일평균수출액도전월(-1.1%) 에이어큰폭(-15.%) 으로감소하면서조업일수의영향을 제외하더라도수출이부진한상황임을시사 수입은유가가하락하면서전월(-19.2%) 보다낮은 2.1% 의증가율을기록 국제유가(Dubai 기준) 는월평균 26.9달러를기록하며전년동월대비 1.3% 하락 무역수지는수출부진으로전년동월(58.1 억달러) 에비해소폭축소된 53.억달러의 흑자를기록 일평균수출액(3MA) 과일평균수입액(3MA) 8 ( 전년동기대비, %, 3 개월이동평균 ) 일평균수출액 (3MA) 일평균수입액 (3MA) 7

11 12 월중국제수지 경상수지는상품수지가크게개선되면서전년동월(69.5 억달러) 에비해흑자규모가확대된 7.6억달러를기록 상품수지는수입(-21.%) 이수출(-11.9%) 보다빠르게감소하면서, 전년동월 (75.6억달러) 에비해흑자폭이크게확대된 17.7억달러를기록 서비스수지는여행수지(-9.5 억달러) 와건설수지(13. 억달러) 가악화된데주로기인하여전년동월(-6. 억달러) 에비해적자폭이확대된 -17.억달러를기록 본원소득수지는투자소득배당지급이증가하며전년동월(8.9 억달러) 의흑자에서적 자(-5.9 억달러) 로전환 215 년경상수지는전년(83.7 억달러) 보다흑자폭이확대된 1,59.6 억달러를기록 계절조정경상수지(3MA) 와교역조건(3MA) 1 ( 억달러, 3 개월이동평균 ) ( 전년동기대비, %, 3 개월이동평균 ) 계절조정경상수지 ( 좌, 3MA) 교역조건 ( 우, 3MA) 금융계정은순자산증가가전월(87. 억달러) 보다축소된 77.6억달러를기록 직접투자는내국인의해외직접투자증가등으로전월(9. 억달러) 보다확대된 1.2억달러증가를기록 증권투자는외국인의국내투자감소에기인하여전월(51.3 억달러) 보다확대된 7.6억달러증가를기록 기타투자는대출감소및무역신용부채의증가등으로전월(16.6 억달러) 보다축소된 3.8억달러증가를기록 * 금융계정이순유출입액기준에서자산 부채의증감기준으로변경됨. 8

12 노동시장 : 제조업 상용직중심의고용증가세가대체로유지되는가운데, 일시적요인 으로농림어업취업자감소폭이전월에비해크게축소 12월중취업자는전년동월대비 9만 5 천명(2.%) 이증가하여전월(28만 5 천명, 1.1%) 에비해증가폭이크게확대 산업별로는제조업의취업자증가폭이전월(19 만명,.%) 에이어 1만 6 천명(3.3%) 의 양호한증가세를유지하였고, 농림어업은기상여건의영향으로취업자감소폭이전월(-16만 8 천명, -11.2%) 에비해크게줄어든 2만 7천명을기록 종사상지위별로는상용직(5만 8 천명,.%) 의양호한증가세가유지되는가운데, 농림 어업의비중이높은비임금근로자의감소폭(-11만 천명, -1.7%) 은전월(-21만 8 천명) 에 비해크게축소 12 월중계절조정고용률(15~6 세) 과경제활동참가율은전월에비해각각.%p 및.5%p 상승한 66.3% 와 63.% 를기록 계절조정실업률은전월과동일한 3.% 의낮은수준을유지 11월중상용근로자 5 인이상사업체의명목임금( 상용근로자, 정액급여) 은전년동월 대비 3.8% 상승하여완만한상승세를유지 ( 15년 7 월) 3.6% (8 월) 3.2% (9 월) 3.1% (1 월) 3.5% (11 월) 3.8% 취업자증감, 계절조정경제활동참가율및고용률(15~6 세) 1, ( 전년동월대비, 천명 ) (%) 취업자증감 ( 좌 ) 계절조정경제활동참가율 ( 우 ) 계절조정 15~6 세고용률 ( 우 ) 6.5 9

13 물가 : 1월중소비자물가는공업제품가격이하락으로전환되면서전월(1.3%) 보다낮은 전년동월대비.8% 의상승률을기록 상품물가는석유류가격의하락폭이축소되었으나, 담뱃값인상효과가소멸됨에따라전 월(.%) 보다낮은전년동월대비 1.1% 의상승률을기록 농축수산물가격은과실류가격 (1.7% -2.%) 의하락을중심으로전월(2.9%) 보다다소 낮은전년동월대비 2.% 의상승률을기록 공업제품가격은석유류가격 (-15.6% -1.3%) 의하락폭이축소되었으나, 담뱃값인상효과 소멸에따른기타공업제품가격 (13.3%.%) 의상승률이크게낮아지면서전월(.%) 의 상승에서전년동월대비.8% 의하락으로전환 * 주류및담배( 전년동월대비, %): ( 15년 11 월) 5. (12 월) 5.3 ( 16년 1 월).6 한편, 전기 수도 가스는도시가스요금인하로인해전월(-7.1%) 보다낮은전년동월대비 8.1% 의상승률을기록 서비스가격은개인서비스가격을중심으로전월(2.3%) 보다소폭높은전년동월대비 2.% 의상승률을기록 농산물및석유류를제외한근원물가는담뱃값인상효과가소멸되면서전월(2.%) 보다 크게낮은전년동월대비 1.7% 의상승률을기록 아파트매매가격과전세가격상승률은전월(.2% 와.3%) 보다낮은전월대비.1% 와.2% 의상승률을기록 소비자물가추이및부문별기여도 3 ( 전년동기대비, %, %p) 농축수산물공업제품서비스 전기 수도 가스소비자물가근원물가 주: 부문별. 기여도의합은반올림으로총지수의증감률과일치하지않을수있음 1

14 금융시장 : 국내금융시장은대외불확실성의확대에주로기인하여원화가치와주가가 하락하는등다소불안한모습 1 월말원/ 달러환율은중국증시급락등의대외불확실성확대에기인하여전월말 (1,172. 원) 대비 36.원상승한 1,28.원을기록 원/1 엔환율은전월말(972. 원) 대비 5.1원상승한 1,17.1원을기록 종합주가지수는대외불확실성확대에따른투자심리악화및외국인의국내주식 순매도에기인하여전월말(1,961.3) 대비 9.2p 하락한 1,912.1을기록 국고채(3 년만기) 금리는외국인의국채선물순매수, 유럽및일본의완화적통화정책 기조확대등으로전월말(1.66%) 대비 1bp 하락한 1.56% 를기록 한편, 12월중은행의가계대출은대출금리상승에도불구하고주택담보대출을중심 으로 6.9조원이증가하여최근의높은증가세를지속 은행가계대출( 기간중증감액, 조원): ( 15년 8 월) 7.7 (9 월) 6.2 ( 1 월) 9. (11 월) 7.5 (12 월) 6.9 환율및주가 1,3 ( 원 ) 2,2 1,2 2,1 1,1 1, 2, 9 1, 원 / 달러 ( 좌 ) 원 /1 엔 ( 좌 ) KOSPI( 우 ) 1,8 11

15 세계경제 : 세계경제의성장세가둔화되는가운데, 신흥국의경기둔화및금융시장불안, 국제유가의변동성확대등다수의하방위험도상존 선진국은유로존이완만한회복세를보인반면, 일본은경기전반이미약한상태에 머물러있으며미국도작년 / 분기에성장세가크게둔화된것으로나타남. 주요선진국의경제성장률 주요선진국의소매판매 9 ( 전기대비연율, %) 12 ( 전년동기대비, %) I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV 미국유로존일본 미국 유로존 일본 신흥시장국은원자재수출국가들을중심으로주요지표들이모두예상을하회하면 서실물경기의부진이심화되고있음을시사 주요신흥국의수출 주요신흥국의제조업심리지수 2 ( 전년동기대비, %, 3 개월이동평균 ) 56 ( 기준 =5) 중국 브라질 러시아 중국인도브라질 12

16 미국경제는작년 / 분기성장률( 전기대비연율.7%) 이둔화되었으나, 향후에는 민간소비를중심으로완만한회복세를유지할것으로예상되고있음. 다만, 산업생산및일부선행지표가부진한가운데, 수출도감소세를지속하면서전반적인 성장세가제한된범위에머무를것으로판단됨. 미국의생산과개인소비지출 미국의취업자수와소비자심리지수 6 ( 전년동기대비, %) 5 5 ( 전기대비, 만명 ) (3개월이동평균 ) 산업생산 ( 좌 ) 개인소비 ( 우 ) 취업자수 ( 좌 ) 소비자심리지수 ( 우 ) 유로존경제는생산과소비증가세가전월에비해둔화되었으나, 수출이다시확대되고 주요심리지수도상승하는등완만한회복세는유지되고있음. 양적완화정책이지속되면서경기회복에대한기대가높은상황이나, 대외불확실성의확대로 회복세가빠르게확대되기는어려울것으로판단됨. 유로존의생산과수출 유로존의제조업심리지수와경기체감지수 ( 전년동기대비, %) 2 ( 기준 =5) 55 ( 기준 =1) 산업생산 ( 좌 ) 수출 ( 우 ) 제조업 PMI( 좌 ) 경기체감지수 ( 우 ) 13

17 일본경제는생산과소비관련지표가예상보다부진하고수출도크게감소하는등 실물경기가재차위축되고있음. 12월중소비는연료및자동차판매의부진으로전월에이어 -1.1% 의낮은증가율을기록하였으며, 수출도대신흥국을중심으로 8.% 감소 일본의생산및경기선행지수 일본의수출과수입 ( 전년동기대비, %) (21=1) ( 전년동기대비, %) 산업생산 ( 좌 ) 경기선행지수 ( 우 ) 수출 수입 중국경제는수출이감소세를지속하는가운데소비를제외한주요내수지표도둔화 되는등경기전반이부진한모습 / 분기경제성장률은소매판매가개선되었으나, 수출과투자가모두부진한것으로나타 나면서전분기(6.9%) 보다낮은전년동기대비 6.8% 를기록 1 중국의생산및소매판매 ( 전년동기대비, %) 중국의고정자산투자와경기선행지수 ( 전년동기대비, %) ( 기준 =1) 산업생산 소매판매 고정자산투자 ( 좌 ) 경기선행지수 ( 우 ) 97 1

18 1 월중국제유가는대이란제재해제에따른공급확대우려와주요국실물경기부진의 영향으로 2 달러대까지하락한가운데변동성도크게확대됨. 국제유가가하락함에따라 CRB 지수등주요상품가격지수는낮은수준에머물러있음. 한편, 주요유가전망기관들은 216 년유가(Brent 기준) 가연평균 달러내외를기록하며 215년대비 2% 이상하락할것으로전망하고있음. 국제유가 주요상품가격지수 12 ( 달러 / 배럴 ) 32 3, ,9 8 2, ,5 2 2, ,1 Dubai WTI CRB( 좌 ) 로이터 ( 우 ) 주: 로이터지수는 1월 22 일기준. 세계경제의성장률전망치가하향조정되는가운데, G2 수준에머물고있음. 리스크등하방위험도상당한 최근 IMF는 216년세계경제의성장률을신흥국성장세둔화를반영하여 3.% 로하향 조정하였으며, 중국경제불안, 미국금리인상등의하방위험이세계경제의성장세를제약할 것으로평가 주요국의 216 년도경제성장률전망(IMF) 전망시점세계미국유로존일본중국브라질러시아 215년 1월 년 1월 자료 : IMF, World Economic Outlook, January 216. (%) 15

19 국제금융시장 : 중국의증시불안및위안화가치하락, 신흥국의성장세둔화로국제 금융시장의변동성이크게확대 안전자산선호심리가확대되면서장기금리가하락하고, VIX 기초여건이취약한일부신흥국의 CDS프리미엄이크게상승 및신흥시장채권지수와 주요국의장기금리 VIX지수와신흥시장채권지수 3. (%) 미국 독일 일본 VIX( 좌 ) 신흥시장채권지수 ( 우 ) 중국등신흥국관련불확실성이확대됨에따라대다수신흥국의환율이상승한가 운데, 주요국의주가는하락하는모습 주요국의주가변화율과달러화대비통화절상률 (1월말현재, 전월말대비) 5 (%) 미국유로일본중국러시아인도인도네시아한국 주가변화율 통화절상률 16

20 전문가경제전망설문조사 (216년 1/ 분기) 국내경제전문가들은중국등주요신흥국의경기둔화에따른수출부진이 성장세를제약하면서우리경제가 216년에 2.7% 의성장률을기록할것 으로전망 수출은세계경제의성장세가예상보다둔화되고저유가상황도지속되면서 1% 내외감소하는가운데, 경상수지는금년에도큰폭의흑자기조가지속 될것으로예상 소비자물가는연초에 1% 대초반에서매우완만하게상승하여, 연간으로 1.3% 의비교적낮은상승률을기록할전망 실업률은작년과유사한 3% 중반수준을유지할것으로예상되는가운데, 취업자수는국내실물경기부진등이반영되면서증가규모가소폭축소될 것으로전망 일부전문가는경기둔화에대응한확장적거시경제정책의운용을강조하는 가운데기업구조조정과가계부채안정화대책등의필요성제기 한편, 다수의응답자들은현재의기준금리가 216년하반기까지유지될것 으로전망하고있음. 216 년우리경제에대한전문가설문조사결과 (%, 억달러, 만명) 조사시점 1) GDP 수출 ) 경상수지 실업률 취업자수 5) 소비자물가 215 년 2/분기 년 3/분기 년 /분기 216 년 1/분기 2) 3) 주 : 1) 국내경제전망전문가 22명을대상으로각각작년 월, 7 월, 1 월, 금년 1 월말에설문조사를실시함. 2) 반기별전망치평균으로연간수치계산. 3) 분기별전망치평균으로연간수치계산. ) 통관기준자료. 5) 전년동기대비증감. 17

21 Summary and Assessment The Korean economy recently exhibited steep declines in certain indicators, signalling a gradual deceleration. Domestic demand has moderated mainly in private consumption while export growth dipped further. Despite the continued moderate recovery in private consumption, sentiment has begun to recede significantly starting from 216 as the effect of consumption stimulus policy loses its momentum. While construction investment maintains a recovery pace, facilities investment continues to shrink. Meanwhile, exports exhibited sharp falls in most key items as the global economy slowed with China leading the trend and oil prices dropping further than expected. On the production side, services production is in a relatively favorable condition while mining and manufacturing production and shipments have deteriorated further due to the disappointing exports. Services production has maintained its recent growth momentum, upholding the overall economic growth. However, mining and manufacturing production and shipments have declined further on continuing sluggishness in exports. All growth figures are on a year-on-year basis unless otherwise noted. This document is an English translation of the original Korean version; the Korean version takes precedence in case of any ambiguities or discrepancies. 18

22 Economic Activity: Mining and manufacturing production and shipments weakened, weighing down on the growth momentum in overall production. December's all industry production, despite improvements in other industries, stalled at a 2.3% growth as mining and manufacturing production posted a poor performance. Services production continued on a relatively high growth of 3.%, maintaining last month s upward trail (3.2%). Meanwhile, mining and manufacturing production dropped further to record a 1.9% growth, lower than a month ago (-.1%), led by key items such as motor vehicles (.8% -3.3%) and ICT (5.6% 1.3%). The manufacturing capacity utilization rate stood at 73.8%, still hovering lower than last year s average (76.1%), signalling a sluggishness in overall manufacturing production. Mining and Manufacturing Production (3MA) and Service Production Index (3MA) (Year-on-Year % Change, 3MA) Mining and Manufacturing Production Index(3MA) Service Production Index(3MA) Manufacturing shipments decreased further in both exports and domestic shipments and the inventory-to-shipments ratio also fell. Manufacturing shipments recorded a 1.6% growth, down from a month ago (-.8%) as domestic shipments tumbled (1.3%.%) amid a continuing contraction in export shipments (-3.1% -3.9%). The manufacturing inventory-to-shipments ratio stood at 122.7%, lower than a month ago (128.1%) mainly among motor vehicles and ICT, suggesting a certain adjustment in inventory. 19

23 Shipment Index(3MA) and Inventory-Shipment Ratio (Year-on-Year % Change, 3MA) (%) Shipment Index (left, 3MA) Inventory-Shipment Ratio (right) The cyclical component of the coincident composite index, while still hovering above the baseline (1), recorded 1.9, slightly down from a month ago (11.1). The cyclical component of the leading composite index recorded 13.8, down from a month ago (1.3), due to a weakening in investment-related indicators. Cyclical Component of Composite Economic Indices 15 (Base=1) Cyclical Component of Coincident Index Cyclical Component of Leading Index 2

24 Consumption: Private consumption has improved consistently but consumption stimulus policy is rapidly losing its momentum starting from 216. December s retail sales index recorded a relatively steady growth of 3.5%, but the pace of recovery in retail sales is forecast to slowdown due to the waning policy effects. By item, durable goods expanded considerably by 13.6%, owing to passenger car sales (3.6%) while semi- and non-durable goods showed slowing recovery with growth rates of.% and 1.5%, respectively. However, with the effects of the consumption stimulus policy gradually dissipating (from beginning of 216), retail sales in domestic motor vehicles which led the recovery in retail sales dropped by.8% in January. Services production recorded a 3.% growth, continuing the recent modest improvement but sectors closely related to private consumption stayed at a relatively low level. Wholesale & retail trade rose a mere 2.% in December despite the increased sales of passenger cars, while accommodation & food service activities continued to retreat with a reduced growth of.6%. January s composite consumer sentiment index (CCSI) recorded 1, down by 2p from a month ago, indicating a continuing weakness in the consumption sentiment. By component, current and prospective domestic economic conditions dropped sharply by 7p and 6p, respectively, leading the decline in the CCSI. Retail Sales Index (3MA) and Composite Consumer Sentiment Index 8 (Year-on-Year % Change, 3MA) (Base=1) Retail Sales Index (left, 3MA) Composite Consumer Sentiment Index (right) 21

25 Facilities Investment: Facilities investment signalled a gradual weakening, mainly in machinery. December s index recorded a 1.% decrease, continuing last month s trend (-.9%), as machinery investment remained in a slump. By category, transport equipment rose 27.7%, but machinery which accounts for the majority of facilities investment dropped 12.1%, continuing on its recent downward trend. * Machinery (YoY, %): (Sep.) -3.6 (Oct.) 1. (Nov.) -1. (Dec.) A few indicators which are closely related to facilities investment displayed overall sluggishness, implying that facilities investment is unlikely to show a dramatic improvement in the short term. Domestic machinery shipments remained sluggish with a 7.3% drop while the machinery import value (advanced estimate for Jan. 1~2) retreated by 9.3% in January. Manufacturing capacity utilization stood very low at 73.8%, implying that the facilities investment demand remains stagnant. Meanwhile, domestic machinery orders received swung to a 35.6% increase from a 1.7% decrease a month ago due to temporary growth factors such as thermal power plant construction and nuclear reactor orders received. Equipment Investment Index (3MA) and Domestic Machinery Orders Received in the Private Sector (3MA) 3 (Year-on-Year % Change, 3MA) Equipment Investment Index (3MA) Domestic Machinery Orders Received in the Private Sector (3MA) 22

26 Construction Investment: Construction investment exhibited an increase mainly in building construction but the fast rise in the number of unsold pre-sale housing units may weigh down on the overall construction industry. In December, the value of construction completed (constant) recorded a 12.2% increase, up from a month ago (5.9%), as the building construction sector exhibited increased growth amid the reduced sluggishness in the civil engineering sector. By sector, civil engineering reversed the decline from a month earlier (-1.6%) to a 3.% increase and building construction climbed 19.3%, higher than a month ago (15.8%). Construction orders received rose 9.8% on the sustaining growth in civil engineering, although building construction turned to a decrease. By sector, building construction decreased 8.6%, mainly in residential housing (-33.2%) but civil engineering exhibited a high growth of 52.%, continuing last month s trend (86.%). Meanwhile, the number of unsold pre-sale housing units amounted to 61,512 units, expanding fast by 11,788 units from a month ago. Apartment transactions dropped by 8.5%, but still remained high (89,3 lots), indicating that it is still too early to consider the drop as a sharp contraction in the housing market. Value of Construction Completed (3MA) and Number of Unsold Houses (3MA) 7 (Thousant Unit) (Year-on-Year % Change, 3MA) Number of Unsold Houses (left) Value of Construction Completed (right, 3MA) 23

27 Exports: Exports tumbled sharply in most of key items on falling oil prices and slowdown in emerging markets including China. Amid falling oil prices and continued slowdown in major countries, January s exports recorded a 18.5% growth, down from a month ago (-1.1%). By item, overall sluggishness was observed in most key items; vessel (-32.3%), petroleum products (-26.5%), motor vehicles & parts (-18.7%) and ICT(-17.%). By region, China showed a sharp drop (-21.5%) while the U.S. (-9.2%), Japan (-18.2%) and ASEAN countries (-19.7%) exhibited relatively large losses. Exports per workday decreased sharply (-15.%) as in the previous month (-1.1%), implying that exports remain stagnant even after controlling the effect of fewer workdays. Imports showed a lower growth ( 2.1%) than a month ago (-19.2%), as oil prices dropped further. Oil prices (Dubai) recorded $26.9 per barrel on a monthly average basis, down by 1.3% from a year ago. Trade balance posted a surplus of $5.3 billion, slightly up from a year ago ($5.81 billion), as exports remain damp. Average Exports (3MA) and Imports (3MA) per Day 8 (Year-on-Year % change, 3MA) Average Exports per Day (3MA) Average Imports per Day (3MA) 2

28 December s Balance of Payments The current account recorded a surplus of $7.6 billion, up from a year ago ($6.95 billion) as the goods account improved significantly. The goods account recorded a surplus of $1.77 billion, sharply up from a year ago ($7.56 billion), while the services account posted a larger deficit ($1.7 billion) than a year ago ($.6 billion). The primary income account switched to a deficit ($.59 billion) from the surplus ($.89 billion) a year ago as dividend payments (as investment income) increased. The 215 current account recorded a larger surplus of $15.96 billion than a year ago ($8.37 billion). Seasonally Adjusted Current Account (3MA) and Terms of Trade (3MA) 1 (Hundred Million US Dollars, 3MA) (Year-on-Year % Change, 3MA) S.A. Current Account (left, 3MA) Terms of Trade (right, 3MA) The financial account recorded an increase of $7.76 billion in net foreign assets, down from a month ago ($8.7 billion). The direct investment recorded a higher increase of $1.2 billion than a month ago ($.9 billion) on the increase in outbound investment. The portfolio investment recorded a higher increase of $7.6 billion than a month ago ($5.13 billion) on the decrease in inbound investment. Other investment posted a smaller increase ($.38 billion) than a month ago ($1.66 billion) due to declining loans and increasing trade credit loans. * The items in financial account here are expressed as of changes in assets and liabilities. 25

29 Labor Market: Employment growth was maintained mainly in manufacturing and regular workers while agriculture, forestry & fisheries exhibited a much lower fall than a month ago. December s employment rose 95, (2.%), higher than a month ago (285,, 1.1%). By occupational status, regular workers maintained a steady increase (58,,.%) while the decrease in non-wage workers who account for the majority of the employed in agriculture, forestry & fisheries sharply reduced (-11,, 1.7%) from a month ago (-218,). Seasonally-adjusted rates of employment (aged 15~29) and labor force participation recorded 66.3% and 63.%, respectively, each up by.%p and up by.5%p from a month ago. The seasonally-adjusted unemployment rate stayed low at 3.%, unchanged from a month ago. The nominal regular wage (in a workplace of more than 5 full-time employees) rose 3.8% in November, sustaining a modest increase. (Jul. 15) 3.6% (Aug.) 3.2% (Sep.) 3.1% (Oct.) 3.5% (Nov.) 3.8% Changes in the Number of Employed Persons, Seasonally Adjusted Labor Force Participation Rate and Employment Rate for Persons Aged 15~6 1, (Year-on-Year Change, Thousand Persons) (%) Changes in Employed Persons (left) S.A. Labor Force Participation Rate (right) S.A. Employment Rate for Persons Aged 15~6 (right)

30 CPI: January s headline CPI inflation retreated.8%, lower than the 1.3% a month ago, as industrial goods prices turned downward. Goods prices rose at 1.1%, lower than a month ago (.%), as the effect of the cigarette price hike waned. Prices of agricultural, livestock, and fishery products showed a slightly lower increase of 2.% than a month ago (2.9%). Industrial goods prices swung to a decrease (.8%) from last month s increase (.%) as the fall in petroleum product prices eased (-15.6% -1.3%). However, the prices of other industrial goods prices rose significantly less (13.3%.%) due to the dissipating cigarette price hike effects. * Liquor & cigarette price (YoY, %): (Nov. 15) 5. (Dec.) 5.3 (Jan. 16).6 Utility fees (water, electricity and gas) rose 8.1%, lower than a month ago (-7.1%), due to the cut in urban gas prices. Services prices rose 2.%, slightly up from a month ago (2.3%), mainly on the price inflation of personal services. Core inflation, excluding agricultural and petroleum products, stood at 1.7%, down from a month ago (2.%), as the effects of the cigarette price hike waned. Prices of apartment purchases and joense rose.1% and.2% MoM, down from a month ago (.2% and.3%, respectively). CPI Change and Contribution by Sector 3 Agricultural Service CPI (Year-on-Year, %, %p) Manufacturing Electricity, water, and gas Core CPI Note: The sum of sector-b-sector contributions are rounded off to the nearest integer, which may be inconsistent with the growth rate of the total index. 27

31 Financial Market: The domestic financial market became more volatile including drops in Korea s currency value and stock market, mainly due to mounting external uncertainties. As of end-january, the dollar/won exchange rate advanced on external uncertainties including China s stock market plunges, to record 1,28. won, up by 36. won from a month ago (1,172. won). The yen/won exchange rate recorded 1,17.1 won per 1 yen, up by 5.1 won from a month ago (972. won). The KOSPI closed at 1,912.1, down by 9.2p from a month ago (1,961.3), influenced by a weakening investment sentiment and foreigners net selling of domestic stocks. Government bonds yields (3-year maturity) recorded 1.56%, down by 1bp from a month earlier (1.66%), influenced by foreigners net buying of government bond futures and the U.S. and Japan s expansion of the accommodative monetary policy. Bank loans to households, mostly housing mortgage loans, rose by 6.9 trillion won during December, despite the rise in the loan interest rate. Banks loans to household (change, trillion won): (Aug. 15) 7.7 (Sep.) 6.2 (Oct.) 9. (Nov.) 7.5 (Dec.) 6.9 Exchange Rate and Stock Price Index 1,3 (won) 2,2 1,2 2,1 1,1 1, 2, 9 1, KRW/USD (left) KRW/1JPY (left) KOSPI (right) 1,8 28

32 World Economy: Amid the slowing growth in the global economy, downside risks remain, including economic slowdowns and financial market instability in emerging markets. With the Eurozone exhibiting a moderate recovery and Japan remaining stagnant, the U.S. grew at a significantly low rate during Q of 215. GDP Growth Rates in the US, Eurozone, and Japan Retail Sales in the US, Eurozone, and Japan 9 (QoQ annualized rate, %) 12 (Year-on-Year % Change) I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV US Eurozone Japan US Eurozone Japan Emerging markets showed lower-than-expected performance in major leading indicators, signalling a deeper contraction in the real economy. Exports in China, Brazil, and Russia Manufacturing Indices in China, India, and Brazil 2 (Year-on-Year % Change, 3MA) 56 (Base=5) China Brazil Russia China India Brazil 29

33 The U.S. exhibited slowing growth in Q of 215 (.7% annualized QoQ), but is expected to show a gradual recovery, led by private consumption. Meanwhile, industrial production performed poorly as exports slid continuously, suggesting the pace of recovery will be somewhat limited. US Industrial Production and Personal Consumption Expenditures US Employment and Consumer Sentiment 6 (Year-on-Year % Change) 5 5 (MoM Change, 1 Thousand Persons) (3MA) Industrial Production (left) Personal Consumption (right) Employed Persons (left) Consumer Sentiment (right) The Eurozone posted lower growth in production and consumption but the exports rebounded, indicating a sustaining, slow recovery. Although the region s accommodative policy remains intact, the Eurozone is not expected to recover fast due to increasing external uncertainties. Industrial Production and Exports in Eurozone (Year-on-Year % Change) 2 PMI and Sentiment Indicator in Eurozone (Base=5) (Base=1) Industrial Production (left) Exports (right) PMI (left) Sentiment Indicator (right) 3

34 Japan showed lower-than-expected performance in production and consumption as well as rapid declines in exports, indicating an overall contraction. December s consumption recorded a low growth of 1.1%, continuing last month s trend, due to reduced sales of fuel and motor vehicles. Exports also fell by 8.% amid the sharp drop in exports to emerging markets. Japan's Industrial Production and Leading Indicator Japan's Exports and Imports (Year-on-Year % Change) (21=1) (Year-on-Year % Change) Industrial Production (left) Leading Indicator (right) Exports Imports China exhibited slowing growth in exports and domestic demand (except consumption), suggesting an overall slowdown in economic activities. Q growth fell lower (6.8%) than a quarter ago (6.9%) as both exports and investment stayed subdued despite the increased growth in retail sales. China's Industrial Production and Retail Sales China's Fixed Asset Investment and Leading Indicator 1 (Year-on-Year % Change) 2 (Year-on-Year % Change) (Base=1) Industrial Production Retail Sales Fixed Asset Investment (left) Leading Indicator (right) 31

35 In January, oil prices (Dubai) dropped to the $2 level as oversupply concerns arose from the lifting of Iran sanctions and the weak demand. Meanwhile, oil forecasters expect 216 prices will be at the $ range (per barrel, Brent) on an annual average basis, falling by 2% or more from 215. Oil Prices CRB and Reuters Indices of Commodity Prices 12 ($/Barrel) 32 3, ,9 8 2, ,5 2 2, , Dubai WTI CRB (left) Reuters (right) Note: Reuters as of Jan. 25th Outlook for the global economy was revised downward with downside risks, including G2, running relatively high. IMF revised down its global growth outlook to 3.%, reflecting the slowdown in emerging economies, and predicted that global growth will be pressured by downward risks such as China s economic instability and U.S. rate hike. 216 World Economic Outlook (IMF) (%) Release Date World US Eurozone Japan China Brazil Russia Oct Jan Source: IMF, World Economic Outlook, January

36 Global Financial Markets: Global financial markets are experiencing high volatility due to China s stock market instability and currency devaluation. Investors appetite for safe assets grew stronger, resulting in a decline in the long-term interest rate and sharp increases in VIX, EMBI and the CDS premium of certain emerging markets with weak economic fundamentals. 3. Long-Term Interest Rates in the US, Germany, and Japan (%) VIX and Emerging Market Bond Index US Germany Japan VIX (left) EMBI (right) FX rates of most of emerging markets increased on mounting uncertainties related to emerging markets, while stock prices in major countries slid. Major Currency Revaluation Rates against USD and Changes in Stock Prices (End-December vs. End-January) 5 (%) US Euro Japan China Russia India Indonesia Korea Stock Price Change Currency Revaluation Rate 33

37 KDI Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) (1st Quarter of 216) Domestic forecasters expect the Korean economy will show a limited growth of 2.7% in 216 on weakening exports due to the economic slowdown in key emerging markets including China. Exports are projected to decrease by around 1% on slowing global growth while the current account is expected to continue to run a large surplus in 216. Headline CPI is expected to rise very gradually from the low 1% range early this year, and record a relatively low rate of 1.3% on an annual basis. The unemployment rate is expected to remain in the mid-3% range, similar to last year, while employment growth is likely to contract slightly due to a growing slack in domestic demand. Some experts called for expansionary macroeconomic policy as a way of responding to economic slowdowns while others demanding corporate restructuring and household debt stabilization measures. Meanwhile, most expected a continuing of the current base rate by the second half of 216. KDI Survey of Professional Forecasters 215~216 Time of Survey 1) GDP Exports ) Current Account (%, $1 million, 1 thousand persons) Unemploym ent Rate Number of Employed 5) Headline CPI 2Q of Q of Q of 215 2) Q of 216 3) Note: 1) Conducted surveys of 22 domestic professional forecasters in Apr., Jul, and Oct. of 215 and late Jan. of ) Annualized figures calculated using the average of biannual forecasts by survey respondents. 3) Annualized figures calculated using the average of quarterly forecasts by survey respondents. ) Customs-cleared basis. 5) Year-on-year change. 3

38 경제동향주요지표 Major Indicators of the Korean Economy

39 국내총생산및국내총소득 (21 년불변가격 ) 민간소비및고정투자(21 년불변가격) GDP and GDI Private Consumption and Fixed Investment (at 21 Constant Prices) (at 21 Constant Prices) 8 ( 전년동기대비, % / Year-on-Year % Change) 15 ( 전년동기대비, % / Year-on-Year % Change) I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV 국내총생산 (GDP) 국내총소득 (GDI) -15 I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV 민간소비 (Private Consumption) 설비투자 (Facilities Investment) 건설투자 (Construction Investment) 상품및서비스수출(21 년불변가격) 상품및서비스수입(21 년불변가격) Exports of Goods and Services Imports of Goods and Services (at 21 Constant Prices) (at 21 Constant Prices) 15 ( 전년동기대비, % / Year-on-Year % Change) 15 ( 전년동기대비, % / Year-on-Year % Change) I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV -5 I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV 상품수출 (Exports of Goods) 서비스수출 (Exports of Services) 상품수입 (Imports of Goods) 서비스수입 (Imports of Services) 36

40 1. 국내총생산(21 년불변가격) Gross Domestic Product (at 21 Constant Prices) GDP 민간소비 Private Consumption 설비투자 Facilities Investment 국내총생산 건설투자 Construction Investment 총수출 Total Export 총수입 Total Import ( 조원, Trillion Won) 국내총소득 Gross Domestic Income p p Ⅳ Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ Ⅰ p Ⅱ p Ⅲ p Ⅳ p Ⅰ p Ⅱ p Ⅲ p Ⅳ p 전년동기대비증가율 (%) Percentage Change from the Same Period of the Previous Year p p Ⅳ 2.2 (.6) 2.7 (.3) -3.8 (-.2) -6. (-1.7) 5.8 (.8) 1.7 (-1.3) 2.7 (.5) 213 Ⅰ 2.1 (.6) 1.6 (-.1) ( 2.7) 1.3 ( 5.3) 5.6 (.2) -.3 (.7) 2.9 (.6) Ⅱ 2.7 ( 1.) 1.9 (.5) -3.2 (.9) 8.9 (.6) 6. ( 2.3) 1.2 ( 1.5).7 ( 1.8) Ⅲ 3.2 (.9) 1.9 ( 1.1) 2.3 ( 3.5) 7. (-.8) 2.5 (-.7).9 (.).2 ( 1.1) Ⅳ 3.5 (.9) 2.2 (.6) 11.6 (.2) 3.5 (-.8) 3.1 ( 1.3) 5. ( 2.9).3 (.7) 21 Ⅰ p 3.9 ( 1.1) 2.6 (.) 7.2 (-1.).1 ( 5.3).2 ( 1.) 3.2 (-1.1).8 ( 1.2) Ⅱ p 3. (.5) 1.7 (-.) 7.7 ( 1.3).2 (.5) 3. ( 1.3) 2.9 ( 1.2) 3.7 (.7) Ⅲ p 3.3 (.8) 1.5 (.8).2 (.2) 2.3 (.9) 2.2 (-1.7) 2.3 (-.7) 3. (.3) Ⅳ p 2.7 (.3) 1. (.5).2 (.) -1.5 (-7.8) 1. (.).1 (.7) 3.6 ( 1.) 215 Ⅰ p 2.5 (.8) 1.5 (.6) 5.8 (.2).6 ( 7.).1 (.1) 1.9 (.6) 6.2 ( 3.6) Ⅱ p 2.2 (.3) 1.7 (-.2) 5. (.5) 1.6 ( 1.6) -.8 (.3) 1. (.9) 6. ( 1.) Ⅲ p 2.7 ( 1.3) 2.1 ( 1.2) 6.6 ( 1.8) 5.7 ( 5.).3 (-.6) 3.2 ( 1.1) 7. (.9) Ⅳ p 3. (.6) 3.2 ( 1.5) 3.5 (.9) 7.3 (-6.1) 1.9 ( 2.1) 5.5 ( 2.8) 6.1 (.7) 주 : 1) p 는잠정치. 2) ( ) 는계절조정전기대비증가율. 자료 : 한국은행. Note: 1) p is preliminary. 2) Figures in parentheses indicate percentage changes from the previous period (S.A.). Source: Bank of Korea. 37

41 생산지수 Production Indices 출하지수및재고지수 Shipment and Inventory Indices 6 ( 전년동기대비, % / Year-on-Year % Change) 12 ( 전년동기대비, % / Year-on-Year % Change) 전산업생산지수 (All Industry Production Index) 광공업생산지수 (Industrial Production Index) 서비스업생산지수 (Service Production Index) 출하지수 (Shipment Index) 재고지수 (Inventory Index) 경기종합지수순환변동치한국은행 BSI 제조업실적및전망(S.A.) Cyclical Component of Economic Indices BOK Business Survey Index (Seasonally Adjusted) 15 ( 기준 =1 / Base=1) 9 ( 기준 =1 / Base=1) 동행지수순환변동치 (Composite Coincident Index) 선행지수순환변동치 (Composite Leading Index) BSI 제조업실적 (BSI Manufacturing Tendency) BSI 제조업전망 (BSI Manufacturing Future Tendency) 38

42 2. 경기 Economic Activity 전산업 2) All Industry Production 생산지수 Production Indices 광공업 3) Industrial Production 서비스업 Service Production 생산자제품 Producer's Product 출하 Shipment 재고 Inventory 경기종합지수순환변동치 1) Cyclical Component of Economic Indices 동행지수 Composite Coincident Index 선행지수 Composite Leading Index ( 전년동기대비, % / Year-on-Year % Change) 한국은행 BSI 1) ( 제조업, 계절조정) BOK BSI (Manufacturing, S.A.) 실적 Tendency 전망 Future Tendency 제조업평균가동률 Capacity Utilization Rate (%) p Ⅱ.9 (.).5 (-.6) 1.5 (.1). (-.3) 8.1 (.7) Ⅲ 1.7 (.5) 1.2 (.1) 2.6 (.9).5 (-.).2 (.8) Ⅳ.6 (.1) -1.9 (-.9) 2.6 ( 1.) -1.1 (.) -1.8 (-2.1) Ⅰ 1. (.2) -.9 (-.1) 2.8 (.5) -.7 (-.6) 2.8 ( 3.5) Ⅱ.7 (-.3) -1.5 (-.9) 2.5 (-.1) -1.3 (-.7) 5.5 ( 3.3) Ⅲ 2. ( 1.9) -.2 ( 1.6) 2.9 ( 1.).8 ( 2.) 7.6 ( 2.9) Ⅳ p 2. (.6). (-.6) 3.1 ( 1.3).3 (-.3).2 (-5.8) ( 1.6).6 ( 2.3) 2. ( 1.) -.7 ( 1.7) 8.1 (.6) (.). ( 1.6) 2.9 (-.3) 2. (.5) 7. ( 1.7) (-.6) -2.6 (-3.3) 2.1 (.6) -2.8 (-2.) 5.7 (-1.1) (-.7) 2. (.1) 2.8 (-.2) 1.9 (-.2).2 (.3) (.) -3.1 (-1.1) 2.6 (.7) -3. (-1.) 3.5 (-.) (-.1) -3.5 (.3) 2.2 (.2) -1.9 ( 2.).5 (-1.) ( 1.3) 1.1 ( 3.) 3.2 (.2) 2.1 ( 2.1) -1.8 (-.3) (-1.9) 1.8 (-3.7) 2.3 (-.5) 2.8 (-3.2).2 (-.1) ( 2.2) -5. ( 2.3) 2.8 ( 1.) -.8 (.5) 2.9 ( 2.7) (-.5).1 (-.2) 3.3 (-.2) -.1 (.3) 2.8 (.8) (-.5) -2.6 (-1.3). (.5) -1.8 (-.5) 3. ( 2.1) (-.6) -3. (-1.6) 2. (-.) -3. (-1.) 3.5 (-1.) (.6) 1. ( 2.).9 (-1.) 1. ( 1.1) 5.5 ( 2.6) (.6) -3.3 (-.3) 2. ( 1.8) -1.5 (.8).2 (.) (.3). (.1) 2.3 (.5). (-.5) 6.2 (.8) ( 2.5) 2.8 ( 2.3) 3.8 ( 1.1) 3.9 ( 3.3) 7.6 ( 1.7) p 2.5 (-1.3) 1.9 (-1.1) 3.2 (.3) 3.2 (-1.3) 5.9 (-1.9) p 2.2 (-.) -.1 (-2.1) 3.2 (.3) -.8 (-2.) 6.6 (-1.) p 2.3 ( 1.2) -1.9 ( 1.3) 3. (.) -1.6 ( 1.3).2 (-3.) 주 : 1) 기준치=1. 2) 21 년이후전산업생산은농림어업제외. 3) 광업, 제조업, 전기 가스업을포함. ) p 는잠정치( 한국은행 BSI 제외). 5) ( ) 는계절조정전기대비증가율. 자료 : 통계청; 한국은행. Note: 1) Base=1. 2) All industry production data since 21 do not include agriculture an fisheris sectors. 3) Mining & Manufacturing, Electricity & Gas Industry. ) p is preliminary (BOK BSI are excluded). 5) Figures in parentheses indicate percentage changes from the previous period (S.A.). Source: Statistics Korea; Bank of Korea. 39

43 민간소비( 소비재) 와소매판매액지수유형별소매판매액지수 Private Consumption(Consumer Goods) and Retail Retail Sales Index by Group of Goods Sales Index 9 ( 전년동기대비, % / Year-on-Year % Change) 25 ( 전년동기대비, % / Year-on-Year % Change) 민간소비 ( 소비재 ) (Private Consumption(Consumer Goods)) 소매판매액지수 (Retail Sales Index) 내구재 (Durable) 준내구재 (Quasi-durable) 비내구재 (Nondurable) 소비재출하지수및소비재수입액 Consumer Goods Shipment Index and Consumer Goods Import 소비자동향조사 Consumer Survey 3 ( 전년동기대비, % / Year-on-Year % Change) 115 ( 기준치 =1 / Base=1) 소비재출하 (Consumer Goods Shipment Index) 소비재수입 (Consumer Goods Import) 소비자심리지수 (Composite Consumer Sentiment Index) 소비지출전망 (Prospective Household Spending)

44 3. 소비 Consumption Retail Sales Index 소매판매액 유형별지수 by Group of Goods 비내구재준내구재 Nondurable Quasidurable 내구재 Durable 승용차 Automobile 소비재출하 Consumer Goods Shipment Index 소비재수입 1) Consumer Goods Import ( 전년동기대비, % / Year-on-Year % Change) 소비자심리지수 Composite Consumer Sentiment Index (CCSI) 소비자동향조사 2) Consumer Survey 현재경기판단 Current Domestic Economic Conditions 향후경기전망 Prospective Domestic Economic Conditions 소비지출전망 Prospective Household Spending p Ⅳ 2.7 (.) Ⅰ.3 (-1.) Ⅱ 1.1 (.8) Ⅲ.5 (.8) Ⅳ 1.1 (.) Ⅰ 2. (.2) Ⅱ.8 (-.2) Ⅲ 1.5 ( 1.3) Ⅳ 1.9 (.) Ⅰ 1.6 (.5) Ⅱ 2.9 (.6) Ⅲ 3.2 ( 1.1) Ⅳ p 5.7 ( 3.6) (-2.8) ( 2.6) (-.) ( 1.) (-.3) (-3.) ( 2.) ( 2.1) (.6) ( 3.2) p 5.6 (-1.) p 3.5 (-.1) p 주 : 1) 소비재수입액을전월의소비재수입물가지수로실질화. 2) 기준치=1. 3) p 는잠정치( 단, 소비자동향조사는제외). ) ( ) 는계절조정전기대비증가율. 자료 : 한국은행; 통계청; 한국무역협회. Note: 1) Nominal consumer goods import deflated by import price index (consumer goods) of the previous month. 2) Base=1. 3) p is preliminary (Consumer survey is excluded). ) Figures in parentheses indicate percentage changes from the previous period (S.A.). Source: Bank of Korea; Statistics Korea; Korea International Trade Association. 1

45 형태별설비투자지수 Equipment Investment Index by Type 설비투자지수와기계류내수출하지수 Equipment Investment Index and Domestic Machinery Shipment Index 5 ( 전년동기대비, % / Year-on-Year % Change) 2 ( 전년동기대비, % / Year-on-Year % Change) 기계류 (Machinery) 운송장비 (Transport Equipment) 설비투자지수 (Equipment Investment Index) 기계류내수출하지수 (Domestic Machinery Shipment Index) 내수용자본재수입액과기계류수입액 Import of Capital Good for Domestic Demand and Machinery Import 국내기계수주 Domestic Machinery Orders Received 3 ( 전년동기대비, % / Year-on-Year % Change) 16 ( 전년동기대비, % / Year-on-Year % Change) 내수용자본재수입액 (Import of Capital Good for Domestic Demand) 기계류수입액 (Machinery Import) 총수주액 (Total) 민간수주액 (Private) 2

46 . 설비투자 Equipment Investment Equipment Investment Index 설비투자지수 기계류 Machinery 운송장비 Transport Equipment 기계류내수출하지수 1) Domestic Machinery Shipment Index 기계류수입액 2) Machinery Import Domestic Machinery Orders Received ( 십억원, Billion Won, 21=1) 국내기계수주 3) 공공 Public 민간 Private ,193 26,85 5,12 21, p , 25,67 1,92 23,79 21 Ⅳ ,93 6, , Ⅰ ,55 6,53 5 6,8 Ⅱ ,273 7,5 93 6,561 Ⅲ ,832 5, ,2 Ⅳ p ,75 6, , ,5 1, , ,16 2, , ,227 1, , ,158 2, , ,723 2, , ,53 2, , ,21 2, , ,211 2, , ,253 1, , ,367 1, , ,688 2, , p ,15 1, , p ,912 2, ,198 전년동기대비증가율 (%) Percentage Change from the Same Period of the Previous Year p Ⅳ 5. ( 8.6) (-26.) Ⅰ 8. ( -1.6) ( 6.2) Ⅱ 5.2 ( -1.5) ( 1.) Ⅲ 1. (.7) (-13.1) Ⅳ p 1.7 (.1) ( 1.1) ( 2.1) (-2.2) ( -7.7) ( 31.9) ( 3.) (-17.8) ( -2.) ( 16.7) ( -1.7) ( 18.9) ( -1.) (-2.) (.3) ( -.) ( 1.) ( -2.9) ( -.9) (.2) (.3) ( 7.6) ( -.7) ( 7.) p -.9 ( -5.) ( -7.2) p -1. ( 6.1) ( 2.6) 주 : 1) 선박제외. 2) 백만달러. 3) 선박제외, 21 년불변가격. ) p 는잠정치( 단, 기계류수입액은제외). 5) ( ) 는계절조정전기대비증가율. 자료 : 한국은행; 통계청; 무역협회. Note: 1) Vessels are excluded. 2) Million US Dollars. 3) Vessels are excluded, at 21 Constant Prices. ) p is preliminary (Machinery Import is excluded). 5) Figures in parentheses indicate percentage changes from the previous period (S.A.). Source: Bank of Korea; Statistics Korea; International Trade Association. 3

47 건설기성액( 불변가격) 및국내건설수주공사종류별건설기성액( 불변가격) Construction Completed (at 21 Constant Prices) Value of Construction Completed by Type and Construction Orders Received (at 21 Constant Prices) 2 ( 전년동기대비, % / Year-on-Year % Change) 18 3 ( 전년동기대비, % / Year-on-Year % Change) 건설기성액 ( 좌 ) / Value of Cons. Completed (left) 국내건설수주 ( 우 ) / Cons. Orders Received (right) 건축 (Building) 토목 (Civil Engineering) 건축허가면적및건축착공면적 Building Construction Permits and Building Construction Initiated 주택건설및미분양주택수 Housing Construction and Number of Unsold Houses 1 ( 전년동기대비, % / Year-on-Year % Change) ( 전년동기비, % / Y-on-Y %)( 전월비, 호 / M-on-M Unit) 건축허가면적 (Building Construction Permits) 건축착공면적 (Building Construction Initiated) 주택건설 ( 좌 ) / Housing Construction (left) 미분양 ( 우 ) / Num. of Unsold Houses (right) -1

48 5. 건설투자 Construction Investment 건설기성액 1) Value of Construction Completed 합계 Total 공사종류별 By Type 건축 Building 토목 Civil Engineering 국내건설수주 Construction Orders Received 건축허가면적 Building Construction Permits ( 십억원, 천m2, 호, Billion Won, Thousand m2, Unit) 건축착공면적 Building Construction Initiated 주택건설 Housing Construction 미분양주택수 3) Number of Unsold Houses 21 89,66 55,926 33,72 89,833 11,37 111, ,251, p 91,56 59,123 32, , ,8 152, ,328 61, Ⅳ 2,571 1,77 9,8 26,39 36,883 32,19 163,923, Ⅰ 19,39 12,331 7,59 2,821 33,938 28,38 118,772 28,897 Ⅱ 22,899 1,538 8,361 35,163 6,575 2,61 181,38 3,68 Ⅲ 22,72 15,87 7,638 36,27 57,537 36,68 2,6 32,52 Ⅳ p 26,93 17,167 9,325 36,99 51,79 5,52 225,188 61, ,51 5,355,159 12,29 13,751 7,233 69,267, ,172 3,9 2,271 7,216 9,619 7,573 33,271 36, ,16 3,9 2,26 5,367 9,591 7,23 33,31 33, ,113,531 2,582 12,238 1,728 13,222 52,2 28,897 7,61,526 2,535 9,8 15,816 13,79 51,35 28,93 5 7,112,71 2,2 12,556 1,732 13,71 56,861 28,12 6 8,725 5,31 3,2 13,559 16,27 15,79 73,12 3,68 7 7,238,926 2,312 8,68 23, 12,217 82,836 33, ,28,825 2,55 8,96 16,651 13,25 69,269 31, ,26 5,336 2,87 19,97 17,81 11,6 87,955 32,52 1 p 7,88 5,321 2,87 1,377 17,159 18,131 6,2 32, p 8,1 5,58 2,556 13,216 16,13 15,96 62,823 9,72 12 p 1,671 6,388,283 13,1 18,51 11,12 98,165 61,512 전년동기대비증가율 (%) Percentage Change from the Same Period of the Previous Year , p , Ⅳ -5.9 (-3.9) (-29.) , Ⅰ -2. (.8) ( 5.9) ,82 Ⅱ -3.9 (-2.7) ( 13.) ,171 Ⅲ 5.9 ( 7.5) ( 19.) ,5 Ⅳ p 7.8 (-1.5) (-27.7) , (.5) ( 15.) (.3) ( 37.6) , (.9) (-16.6) , (-7.2) ( 7.2) , (-2.1) (-23.1) ( 2.2) ( 3.6) (.1) (-26.6) , (.) ( -3.) ( 2.6) ( 13.) , ( 5.2) ( 8.) p.3 (-7.3) (-8.1) p 5.9 (-.7) ( 18.) ,53 12 p 12.2 ( 7.) (-38.6) ,788 주 : 1) 21 년불변가격. 2) p 는잠정치. 3) 전기대비증감. ) ( ) 는계절조정전기대비증가율. 자료 : 통계청; 국토교통부. Note: 1) At 21 Constant Prices. 2) p is preliminary. 3) Month-on-month number changes. ) Figures in parentheses indicate percentage changes from the previous period (S.A.). Source: Statistics Korea; Ministry of Land Infrastructure and Transport. 5