12월 속표지_담당자.hwp

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2 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_ 총괄국내총생산경기소비설비투자건설투자대외거래노동시장물가금융시장재정세계경제 김현욱 정대희구희일권규호한일수박종호박준석조덕상김슬기오지윤이유진최우진안소연김지운정유경이장욱노시연황순주권수연이태석이지현이상규류지영황세진이우열 본자료는 KDI 홈페이지를통해서도보실수있습니다.

3 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 Contents 주요경제지표 Major Economic Indicators 요약및평가 Summary and Assessment 경제동향주요지표 Major Indicators of the Korean Economy 1. 국내총생산(21 년불변가격) 35 Gross Domestic Product (at 21 Constant Prices) 2. 경기 37 Economic Activity 3. 소비 39 Consumption. 설비투자 1 Equipment Investment 5. 건설투자 3 Construction Investment 6-1. 수출, 수입및교역조건 5 Exports, Imports and Terms of Trade 6-2. 경상수지및금융계정 7 Current Account and Financial Account 7. 고용및임금 9 Employment and Wage 8. 물가 51 Price Indices 9-1. 금융시장 (I) 53 Financial Market (I) 9-2. 금융시장 (II) 55 Financial Market (II) 1-1. 세계경제동향 (I) 57 Major Indicators of the World Economy (I) 1-2. 세계경제동향 (II) 59 Major Indicators of the World Economy (II)

4 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 주요경제지표 Major Economic Indicators ( 전년동기대비, % / Year-on-Year % Change) Ⅳ Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ 전산업생산 All Industry Production 광공업생산 Industrial Production 서비스업생산 Service Production 소매판매액 Retail Sales Index 설비투자지수 Equipment Investment Index 건설기성액 ( 불변 ) Value of Construction Completed (Constant Price) 수출 ( 통관 ) Exports (f.o.b.) 수입 ( 통관 ) Imports (c.i.f.) 무역수지 ( 십억달러 ) Balance of Trade (Billion US Dollars) 실업률 Unemployment Rate 취업자수 Number of Employed 소비자물가 Consumer Price 국고채 3-year Treasury Bonds 종합주가지수 KOSPI 원/ 달러환율 Won/Dollar Exchange Rate OECD 경기선행지수 OECD Composite Leading Indicator 유가 ( 두바이, 달러 / 배럴 ) Oil Prices (Dubai, US$/Barrel) ,961 2,26 2,26 2,16 2,392 2,39 2,39 2,523 2,76 1, ,27.7 1,27.7 1,118. 1,1.1 1,15. 1,15. 1,12. 1, 주: 국고채수익률 종합주가지수 원/ 달러환율은기말기준, 유가( 두바이) 는기간평균기준임.

5 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 요약및평가 최근우리경제는수출에의해견인되어왔던경기개선추세가다소완만해지는모습을나타내고있음. 1 월의생산지표들이크게위축되는모습을보였으나, 추석명절이동및장기연휴에따른조업일수감소효과를고려하면완만하게나마개선추세를지속하고있는것으로평가됨. 대부분의생산지수들이 1 월에음(-) 의증가율을나타내었으나, 9~1월평균 으로는조업일수감소에도불구하고소폭의증가를기록 내수지표들도일시적요인들에의해증가율이크게등락한가운데, 소비심리는상승세를나타낸반면건설기성을중심으로투자관련지표들은증가세가점차축소되는모습 9~1 월평균소매판매는비교적높은증가율을기록한가운데, 수는기준치를큰폭상회하는모습 소비자심리지 설비투자는관련선행지표들이높은증가율을유지함에따라, 비를중심으로당분간양호한흐름이지속될것으로판단 반도체제조용장 반면, 건설투자의경우에는둔화추세가진행되는가운데, 선행지표도부진이 심화되고있어설비투자와차별화되는모습 한편, 반도체등일부품목의수출이비교적견실한증가세를유지하고있 으나, 전체수출의증가추세는선박수출감소의영향을감안하더라도다소 완만해진것으로판단됨. 별도의언급이없을경우모든증가율은전년동월대비기준임. 1

6 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 경기: 생산및출하가큰폭의감소로전환되었으나, 명절이동등일시적요인을고려 할때경기개선추세는완만하게나마유지되고있는것으로판단됨. 1 월중전산업생산지수는감소( 2.2%) 로전환되었으나, 9~1월평균으로는전년 동기간대비 2.6% 증가하며 8 월(2.5%) 과유사한수준을기록 광공업생산은추석연휴이동및장기간연휴등에따른조업일수(5 일) 의감소로전월 (8.5%) 의큰폭증가에서 5.9% 감소로전환되었으나, 9~1월평균으로는전년동기간 대비 1.1% 증가하며완만한증가세를유지 서비스업생산도일시적인요인으로도 소매 (-3.3%) 및음식 숙박업 (-.3%) 에서부진하며 소폭감소(-.2%) 로전환되었으나, 9~1월평균으로는전년동기간대비 2.5% 증가하며 8 월(2.1%) 수준을상회 광공업생산지수 (3MA) 및서비스업생산지수 (3MA) 6 ( 전년동기대비, %, 3 개월이동평균 ) 광공업생산지수 (3MA) 서비스업생산지수 (3MA) 1 월중제조업출하도큰폭의감소로전환되었으며재고율은상승 제조업출하는내수출하(-9.8%) 및수출출하(-3.1%) 가모두감소로전환되며 6.7% 감소 하였으며, 9~1월평균으로는.7% 증가하여 8 월(2.%) 에비해낮은수준을기록 한편, 1 월중제조업재고율은전월(118.%) 에비해상승한 125.1% 를기록하였고, 9~1월평균으로는 8 월(121.1%) 과유사한수준인 121.8% 를기록 2

7 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 제조업출하지수(3MA) 와재고율 6 ( 전년동기대비, %, 3 개월이동평균 ) (%) 제조업출하지수 ( 좌, 3MA) 제조업재고율 ( 우 ) 한편, 동행지수순환변동치와선행지수순환변동치는각각전월대비.p,.3p 하 락한 1.5, 11.3을기록 동행지수순환변동치와선행지수순환변동치 12. ( 기준 =1) 동행지수순환변동치 선행지수순환변동치 3

8 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 소비: 양호한소비자심리를바탕으로소비는완만한개선흐름을이어가는모습 1월중소매판매액지수와서비스업생산지수는모두전년동월대비.2% 의증가율을 기록하였으나, 이는명절이동으로인한일시적요인이작용한것으로판단됨. 9~1.% 월평균기준으로소매판매액지수와서비스업생산은전년동기간대비 2.5% 증가하여, 명절이동요인을고려하더라도완만한개선세가이어지고있는것 으로평가 와 형태별로, 비내구재는음식료품(.%) 을중심으로 3.6% 증가하며소매판매증가를견인 하였고, 내구재는통신기기및컴퓨터(13.3%) 를중심으로 8.6% 증가 한편, 11월소비자심리지수는향후경기개선에대한기대확대로전월보다 3.1p 상 승하며기준치(1) 를큰폭상회한 112.3을기록 대부분의구성지수가상승한가운데, 향후경기전망 (99 18) 및생활형편전망 (12 1) 의개선이소비자심리지수의증가세를주로견인 소매판매액지수 (3MA) 및소비자심리지수 8 ( 전년동기대비, %, 3개월이동평균 ) ( 기준 =1) 소매판매액지수 ( 좌, 3MA) 소비자심리지수 ( 우 ) 92

9 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 설비투자: 일시적요인으로설비투자지수가감소로전환되었으나, 반도체관련선행지 표는성장세를유지하고있어당분간설비투자의양호한증가세가유지될가능성 1 월중설비투자지수는조업일수감소등일시적요인으로전월(2.9%) 보다크게 하락한 3.% 의증가율을기록 설비투자지수 ( 전년동월대비, %): ( 17년 8 월) 12. (9 월) 2.9 (1 월) -3. 기계류( 전년동월대비, %): ( 17년 8 월) 1.7 (9 월) 3. (1 월).2 운송장비( 전년동월대비, %): ( 17년 8 월) 6.3 (9 월) 11. (1 월) 한편, 11월중반도체제조용장비수입액이 13.1% 를기록하면서양호한성장세를 이어가고특수산업용기계수주액증가율도크게확대되면서당분간설비투자의증가 세가유지될가능성 반도체제조용장비수입액 ( 전년동월대비, %): ( 17년 9 월) 11.6 (1 월) 5.8 (11 월) 13.1 기계류수입액( 전년동월대비, %): ( 17년 9 월) 27.8 (1 월) -1.8 (11 월) 18.2 특수산업용기계수주액( 전년동월대비, %): ( 17년 8 월) 7. (9 월) 8.6 (1 월) 1. 설비투자지수 (3MA) 및반도체설비투자관련지표(3MA) ( 전년동기대비, %, 3개월이동평균 ) 설비투자지수 ( 좌, 3MA) 특수산업용기계수주액 ( 우, 3MA) 반도체제조용장비수입액 ( 우, 3MA) -12 5

10 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 건설투자: 건설기성의둔화추세가지속되고, 선행지표인건설수주도부진을지속하고 있어향후건설투자증가세는점차낮아질것으로예상됨. 1 월중건설기성( 불변) 은건축부문의증가폭이크게하락하고토목부문의감소세는 크게확대되면서전월(18.%) 보다하락한 1.5% 를기록함. 공종별로는건축부문이명절이동효과가반영되며 5.2% 증가한데그쳐전월(26.2%) 에 비해증가폭이크게낮아졌고, 토목부문은 18.8% 감소하여전월(-1.1%) 에비해하락폭이 크게확대됨. 계절조정전월대비로는건축부문이 1.6% 하락하였으나토목부문이 8.% 상승하면서전월 (-1.3%) 의감소에서.8% 증가로전환 건설수주( 경상) 도건축부문과토목부문의감소세가크게확대되면서전월(1.%) 의 상승에서 5.7% 감소로전환됨. 공종별로는건축부문이.% 하락하고토목부문이 5.5% 감소함. 건축착공면적도주거용의감소세가지속되는가운데, 상업용및공업용이크게감소 하면서전월(.2%) 보다크게하락한 25.7% 의증가율을기록 용도별로주거용이 3.9% 하락하면서감소세를지속하였고, 상업용(-18.2%) 및공업용 (-32.2%) 도크게감소함. 건설기성액(3MA) 및국내건설수주액 (3MA) ( 전년동기대비, %, 3 개월이동평균 ) 건설기성액 ( 좌, 3MA) 건설수주액 ( 우, 3MA) 6

11 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 수출: 반도체, 등일부품목의수출이비교적견실한증가세를유지하고있으나전체 수출의증가추세는다소약화된것으로판단됨. 11월중수출액은선박등일부품목의부진으로 9.6% 증가에그쳐 9~1월평균 (2.9%) 보다는증가세가약화 품목별로반도체(65.2%), 석유제품(38.%) 등은양호한증가세를유지하였으나, 선박은 수주잔량감소에따라전월(35.9%) 의증가에서큰폭의감소(-77.1%) 로전환 선박제외수출(16.9%) 은 9~1 월평균( 전년동기간대비 19.8%) 에비해소폭낮은수준을 기록하여, 선박수출감소효과를제외하더라도수출증가세는완만해지고있는것으로판 단됨. 1월중수출물량지수는조업일수감소등에기인하여 1.9% 감소 * 수출물량지수 ( 전년동기대비, %): ( 17. 3/) 9.3 (9 월) 19.8 (1 월) -1.9 수입은자본재등을중심으로 12.3% 증가하며 9~1 월평균(15.1%) 보다다소낮은 증가율을기록 주요에너지자원을중심으로 1차산품과자본재는각각 21.%, 19.3% 증가 한편, 무역수지는전년동월(8.7 억달러) 과유사한 78.억달러의흑자를기록 1월중교역조건은 1.5% 하락하며전월(.8%) 의증가에서감소로전환 총수출(3MA) 및선박제외수출 (3MA) 과수출물량지수 (3MA) ( 전년동기대비, %, 3 개월이동평균 ) 총수출 (3MA) 선박제외수출 (3MA) 수출물량지수 (3MA) 7

12 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 1 월중국제수지 경상수지는서비스수지적자폭이확대되면서전년동월 (76.9 억달러) 보다축소된 57.2억달러의흑자를기록 상품수지는수입(5.6%) 이수출(3.1%) 보다큰폭으로증가하면서전년동월(91.6 억 달러) 보다흑자폭이소폭축소된 86.억달러를기록 서비스수지는명절효과에주로기인하여여행수지적자(-.9 억달러 억달러) 가 확대되고기타사업서비스 (-9.1억달러 억달러) 의적자폭도확대되면서전년동월 (-17.9 억달러) 보다적자폭이크게확대된 35.3억달러를기록 본원소득수지는투자소득이확대(7.3억달러 12.1 억달러) 됨에따라전년동월(7.1억 달러) 보다확대된 11.7 억달러의흑자를기록하였고, 이전소득수지는전년동월(-3.9 억 달러) 보다적자폭이소폭확대된 5.2억달러를기록 계절조정경상수지(3MA) 와교역조건(3MA) 15 ( 억달러, 3 개월이동평균 ) ( 전년동기대비, %, 3 개월이동평균 ) 계절조정경상수지 ( 좌, 3MA) 교역조건 ( 우, 3MA) 금융계정은전월(12.1 억달러 ) 보다축소된 8. 억달러의순자산증가를기록 직접투자는내국인의해외투자증가폭이크게축소되면서전월(23.5 억달러) 보다축 소된.7억달러를기록 증권투자는내국인의해외채권투자가감소하고외국인의국내투자가증가로전환되 면서전월(99.5 억달러) 의순자산증가에서 1.7억달러감소로전환 기타투자는전월(8.5 억달러) 보다증가규모가확대되어 76.7억달러를기록 8

13 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 노동시장: 추석연휴의, 이동등으로서비스업에서취업자증가폭이소폭축소되었으나 전반적인고용여건은전월과유사한흐름을유지하고있음. 1월중취업자는전년동월대비 27.9 만명(1.%) 증가하여전월(31. 만명, 1.2%) 보다증가폭이축소됨. 산업별로는제조업(2.만명 2.8 만명) 과건설업(1.8 만명 11.8 만명) 에서전월과유사한 취업자증가폭을기록한가운데, 서비스업(16.만명 11.5 만명) 에서는추석연휴이동및 연휴기간확대효과등으로증가폭이축소됨. 종사상지위별로는상용직(37.5 만명 35.6 만명), 임시직(-1.7 만명 만명) 및자 영업자(.5 만명.3 만명) 는전월과유사한증가폭을기록한가운데, 추석연휴의효과로 일용직(5. 만명 1.7 만명) 의증가폭이축소됨. 계절조정경제활동참가율 (63.1% 63.%) 은전월대비.1%p 하락하였으며, 계절 조정고용률은전월과동일한 것으로판단됨. 6.7% 를기록하는등고용개선속도는여전히완만한 계절조정실업률은전월대비.1%p 하락한 3.6% 를기록 15~6세의계절조정고용률은전월대비.1%p 하락한 66.6% 를기록 주요산업별취업자증감 6 ( 전년동월대비, 천명 ) 전산업서비스업제조업건설업 9

14 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 물가: 11 월중소비자물가는공급측요인에주로기인하여전월(1.8%) 에비해크게 낮은 1.3% 의상승률을기록 상품물가는전기 수도 가스가격의하락폭이확대되고농축수산물가격의상승세가 둔화되며전월(1.5%) 보다하락한.5% 의상승률을기록 농축수산물가격은과실등농산물가격 (2.3% -1.%) 이하락으로전환됨에따라전월 (3.%) 보다낮은.7% 상승 전기 수도 가스는도시가스미수금의회수완료로가스요금이비교적큰폭으로인하 (-9.3%) 되면서전월(-1.6%) 보다하락폭이확대된 6.7% 을기록 공업제품가격은내구재가격 (.2% 1.2%) 의상승폭이확대되었으나, 기타공업제품가격 (.9% -.5%) 이하락으로전환되며전월(1.5%) 과비슷한 1.% 의상승률을기록 서비스물가는해외단체여행비를중심으로전월(2.%) 보다낮은 1.8% 상승하였으며, 농산물및석유류제외근원물가도전월(1.3%) 보다낮은 1.2% 의상승률을기록 한편, 아파트매매가격과전세가격은전월대비각각.1%,.% 의상승률을기록 소비자물가추이및부문별기여도 3 ( 전년동기대비, %, %p) 농축수산물공업제품서비스 전기 수도 가스소비자물가근원물가 주: 부문별. 기여도의합은반올림으로총지수의증감률과일치하지않을수있음 1

15 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 금융시장: 원화가치는경기개선과기준금리인상에대한기대로상승했고, 주가는전 기전자업종에대한부정적전망이부각되면서하락 11 월중원/ 달러환율은경기개선및기준금리인상에대한기대가반영되면서전월말 (1,12. 원) 대비 32.2 원(-2.9%) 이하락한 1,88.2원을기록 원/1 엔환율은전월말(991.2 원) 대비 21. 원(-2.1%) 하락한 97.2원을기록 종합주가지수는반도체가격하락에대한우려가확대되면서전월말(2,523.) 대비 1.9% 하락한 2,76.를기록 한편, 코스닥지수는정부의혁신 중소기업지원정책* 으로기업실적개선에대한기대가높아지면서전월말대비비교적큰폭으로상승(11.1%) 한 771.를기록 * 중소기업연대보증폐지, 혁신기업창업및연구개발지원, 신산업분야네거티브규제도입등 국고채금리 (3 년물) 는기준금리인상효과가이미반영된반면, 추가적인상은예상보다점진적일것이라는기대가확산되며전월말대비 8bp 하락한 2.8% 를기록 한편, 3/분기중가계신용은은행의기타대출과기타금융기관대출을중심으로증가세가유지되면서전분기대비 31.2조원이증가한 1,19.1조원을기록 은행가계대출( 기간중증가액, 조원): ( 16. 3/) 17.2 ( 17. 3/) 15. 은행기타대출( 기간중증가액, 조원): ( 16. 3/) 3.8 ( 17. 3/) 7. 기타금융기관가계대출 ( 기간중증가액, 조원): ( 16. 3/) 8.6 ( 17. 3/) 8.9 환율및주가 1,3 ( 원 ) 2,6 1,2 2, 1,1 2,2 1, 2, 원 / 달러 ( 좌 ) KOSPI( 우 ) 1,8 11

16 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 세계경제 : 선진국의통화긴축기조와정책관련불확실성에대한우려가상존하나, 주요 핵심국가들의실물지표가개선되는등세계경제의회복세가확대되는모습 세계경제는산업생산과교역량, 주요경제주체들의심리지수모두뚜렷한상승세를 보이면서실물경기전반이양호한흐름을유지하고있음. 세계산업생산과교역량 세계소비자및기업신뢰 6 ( 전년동기대비, %, 3 개월이동평균 ) 3 ( 기준 =, 3 개월이동평균 ) 산업생산 교역량 소비자 기업 주 : OECD+NME. 선진국은내수및제조업심리가개선되면서완만한경기회복세를유지하고있으며, 신흥국도해외수요확대와유가상승으로수출을비롯한대다수지표들이증가세를 지속 주요선진국의제조업심리지수 주요신흥국의수출 65 ( 기준 =5) ( 전년동기대비, %, 3 개월이동평균 ) 미국 ISM 제조업 유로존제조업 PMI 중국러시아브라질 12

17 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 미국경제는생산과소비증가세가확대되고고용여건도다시회복되는모습을보이며 견실한성장세를지속하고있음. 금년 3/ 분기성장률은주택투자(-5.1%) 가부진한모습이나, 설비투자(1.%) 가속보치 대비상향조정되면서전분기보다높은 3.3%( 전기대비연율) 를기록 미국의민간소비와설비투자 미국의취업자수와소비자심리지수 6 ( 전기대비연율, %) 3 ( 전기대비, 만명 ) ( 기준 =1, 3개월이동평균 ) IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III 민간소비 ( 좌 ) 설비투자 ( 우 ) 취업자수 ( 좌 ) 소비자심리지수 ( 우 ) 유로존경제는자산매입축소우려에도불구하고생산및소비가확대되고관련선행 지표도상승세를지속하면서완만한경기회복세가유지되고있음. 경기전반의회복세가지속되면서유로존내국가별회복속도의편차가크게줄어든가 운데, 상대적으로부진했던고용여건도점차개선되는추세 유로존의주요국경제성장률 유로존의산업생산과소매판매 1.5 ( 전기대비, %) 5 ( 전년동기대비, %) / 217 3/ 영국 프랑스 이탈리아 포르투갈 유로존 헝가리 독일 스페인 핀란드 산업생산 소매판매 13

18 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 일본경제는소비등일부내수관련지표의개선추세가약화되었으나, 증가율을기록하면서완만한경기회복세지속 수출이높은 1 월에소매판매(-.2%) 가음식료품및자동차판매부진으로감소로전환되었으나, 수출 (1.%) 은기계류를중심으로전월에이어높은증가세를유지하고있음. 일본의산업생산과소매판매 일본의수출과경기선행지수 9 ( 전년동기대비, %) ( 전년동기대비, %) (21 년 =1) 산업생산 소매판매 수출 ( 좌 ) 경기선행지수 ( 우 ) 중국경제는투자관련지표가부진한모습이나, 민간소비와수출증가세가유지되면서 실물경기둔화우려는상당부분완화된것으로판단됨. 1 월중제조업설비투자조정으로고정자산투자 (7.3%) 증가율이하락한반면, 소매판매 (1.%) 와심리지표가개선추세를유지하고수출(7.3%) 도유럽 아세안을중심으로증가 1 중국의산업생산및소매판매 ( 전년동기대비, %) 중국의고정자산투자와제조업심리지수 ( 전년동기대비, %) ( 기준 =5) 산업생산 소매판매 고정자산투자 ( 좌 ) 제조업 PMI( 우 ) 1

19 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 11 월중유가는주요산유국의감산재연장기대, 미국의원유재고감소전망, 달러화 약세등에기인하여배럴당 6달러초반까지급등 금년 11 월까지평균유가( 두바이기준) 는작년대비 26.3% 상승한 52.3달러를기록한가 운데, 유가상승세가지속되면서 218 년유가전망치도상향조정되는추세임. 한편, 곡물과대다수비철금속가격이하락하였으나, 국제유가가큰폭으로상승하면서 CRB 지수등대부분의상품가격지수는상승세를유지하고있음. ( 달러 / 배럴 ) 7 유가와 CRB지수주요원자재가격 (1967=1) 21 6 ( 전월대비, %) Dubai( 좌 ) CRB( 우 ) 니켈 알루미늄 아연 구리 옥수수 소맥 주석 납 Dubai 주: 217년 1월말대비 11월말기준. 주요전망기관들은선진국의내수관련지표가개선되고신흥국에서수출및생산의 증가세가확대되면서세계경제가회복세를지속할것으로전망 다만, 주요선진국의통화긴축우려와경제정책관련불확실성, 신흥국의취약한금융시장 여건, 지정학적위험등의하방위험도상존하고있는것으로평가 주요국의경제성장률전망 (OECD) 세계미국유로존일본중국브라질러시아한국 217년 년 자료 : OECD, Economic Outlook, November 217. (%) 15

20 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 국제금융시장 : 금융시장의변동성이일시적으로확대되었으나, 실물경기회복세가유 지되며다시안정을찾아가는모습 미국의세제개편등정책관련불확실성으로달러화가치가주요국통화대비하락한 가운데, 통화긴축우려에도불구하고장기금리는대체로전월수준을유지 달러화대비주요국의통화절상률 주요국장기금리 5 (%) 3. (%) 러시아 인도네시아 중국 인도 싱가포르 일본 영국 유로존 브라질 한국 말레이시아 남아공 멕시코 미국독일일본 주: 217년 1월말대비 11월말기준. 한편, 위험자산에대한투자심리가위축되면서신흥국주가가하락하고변동성지수도 일시적으로급등하였으나, 실물경기전반이양호한흐름을유지하면서빠르게회복 VIX 지수와신흥시장채권지수주요국의주가변화율 25 2 (%) VIX( 좌 ) 신흥시장채권스프레드 ( 우 ) 3 - 멕시코 브라질 유로존 중국 대만 한국 인도네시아 인도 러시아 주: 217년 1월말대비 11월말기준. 미국 일본 16

21 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 Summary and Assessment Export-driven economic improvements exhibited a slight moderation. October posted a sharp contraction in production indicators but the improvement trend was maintained at a modest pace given the reduced workdays for Chuseok and long holidays. Most production indicators posted negative growths but there was a small increase in the average growth for Sep.-Oct. despite reduced workdays. Domestic demand indicators exhibited steep fluctuations on temporary factors while consumer sentiment trended up. But, investment-related indicators showed slowing growth led by the value of construction completed. Retail sales enjoyed a relatively high growth on average in Sep.-Oct. and the CCSI surpassed far beyond the baseline. Facilities investment, mainly semiconductor manufacturing equipment, seems to be continuing the favorable trend as relevant leading indicators maintained fast growth. Meanwhile, the growth in construction investment gradually slowed and its leading indicators deteriorated further, signaling the opposite from facilities investment. Meanwhile, exports of semiconductors and a few other items maintained favorable growth but total export growth has moderated somewhat even when taking into account the impact from the decline in vessel export. All growth figures are on a year-on-year basis unless otherwise noted. This document is an English translation of the original Korean version; the Korean version takes precedence in case of any ambiguities or discrepancies.

22 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 Economic Activity: Production and shipments turned to a steep decline but the pace of economic improvement seems to have remained modest given temporary factors such as the Chuseok holidays. October's all industry production index swung to a decrease ( 2.2%) while the average for Sep.-Oct. recorded an increase of 2.6%, similar to August (2.5%). Mining and manufacturing production turned to a 5.9% decrease from last month (8.5%) influenced by reduced workdays (5 days) due to Chuseok and long holidays but the average for Sep.-Oct. maintained a modest growth of 1.1%. Services production turned to a slight decrease (-.2%) on temporary factors, largely led by wholesale and retail trade (-3.3%) and accommodation and food services (-.3%) but the average for Sep.-Oct. recorded a 2.5% growth, higher than August (2.1%). Mining and Manufacturing Production (3MA) and Service Production Index (3MA) 6 (Year-on-Year, % Change, 3MA) Mining and Manufacturing Production Index (3MA) Service Production Index (3MA) October s manufacturing shipments turned to a sharp decrease while the inventory-to-shipments ratio ascended. Manufacturing shipments retreated 6.7% on both domestic (-9.8%) and export shipments (-3.1%) turning to a decrease. The average for Sep.-Oct. recorded.7%, down from August (2.%). Meanwhile, the manufacturing inventory-to-shipments ratio stood at 125.1%, higher than last month (118.%) while the average for Sep.-Oct. recorded 121.8%, similar to August (121.1%). 18

23 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 Shipment Index (3MA) and Inventory-Shipment Ratio 6 (Year-on-Year % Change, 3MA) (%) Manufacturing Shipment Index (left, 3MA) Manufacturing Inventory-Shipment Ratio (right) The cyclical component of the coincident composite index registered 1.5, down by.p from last month while that of the leading composite index declined by.3p from last month to record Cyclical Component of Composite Economic Indices 12. (Base=1) Cyclical Component of Coincident Index Cyclical Component of Leading Index

24 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 Consumption: Consumption continued the modest improvement trend based on favorable consumer sentiment. October's indices for retail sales and services production grew -.2% on temporary factors such as later Chuseok holidays than last year. In terms of the average for Sep.-Oct. both indices enhanced.% and 2.5%, respectively, implying that a modest improvement trend was maintained despite the holidays. By goods, non-durable goods sales, particularly food and beverages (.%), climbed 3.6% driving the growth in retail sales while durable goods sales increased 8.6% led by communication devices and computers (13.3%). Meanwhile, November's composite consumer sentiment index (CCSI) marked 112.3, sharply up by 3.1p from last month on growing expectations for an economic recovery. Most of components ascended mainly driven by improvements in prospective domestic economic conditions (99 18) and living standards (12 1). Retail Sales Index(3MA) and Composite Consumer Sentiment Index 8 (Year-on-Year % Change, 3MA) (Base=1) Retail Sales Index (left, 3MA) Composite Consumer Sentiment Index (right) 2

25 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 Facilities Investment: The equipment investment index swung to a decrease on temporary factors but semiconductor-related leading indicators maintained an upward trend, pointing to the possibility of a modest growth in facilities investment for some time. October s equipment investment index recorded a 3.% growth, sharply down from last month (2.9%) due to temporary factors such as reduced workdays. Equipment investment index (YoY, %): (Aug. 17) 12. (Sep.) 2.9 (Oct.) -3. Machinery (YoY, %): (Aug. 17) 1.7 (Sep.) 3. (Oct.).2 Transport equipment (YoY, %): (Aug. 17) 6.3 (Sep.) 11. (Oct.) Meanwhile, November s imports (amount) of semiconductor manufacturing equipment recorded a 13.1% growth, continuing the favorable upward trend while the growth in special industrial machinery orders received (amount) exhibited a sharp increase in growth, pointing to the possibility of a continuation of the sustained growth in facilities investment for some time. Imports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment (YoY, %): (Sep. 17) 11.6 (Oct.) 5.8 (Nov.) 13.1 Machinery imports (YoY, %): (Sep. 17) 27.8 (Oct.) -1.8 (Nov.) 18.2 Special industrial machinery orders received (YoY, %): (Aug. 17) 7. (Sep.) 8.6 (Oct.) 1. Equipment Investment Index (3MA) and Indexes Related to Semiconductor Facility Investment (3MA) (Year-on-Year % Change, 3MA) Equip. Investment Index(left, 3MA) Special Machinery Order Received(right, 3MA) Semicon. Manufac. Equip.(right, 3MA) -12

26 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 Construction Investment: The value of construction completed continued to trend down while construction orders received, as a leading indicator, remained tepid, suggesting that growth in construction investment will slow. October s value of construction completed (constant) recorded a sharp decrease in growth ( 1.5%) from last month (18.%) as growth in the building construction sector declined significantly and the civil engineering sector tumbled further from last month. By sector, building construction recorded a large decrease in growth of 5.2% from last month (26.2%) influenced by the Chuseok holidays arriving later than last year while civil engineering exhibited a bigger decline (-18.8%) from last month (-1.1%). On a seasonally adjusted MoM basis, the value of construction completed swung to an increase of.8% from last month s decrease (-1.3%) as building construction retreated 1.6% but civil engineering advanced 8.%. Construction orders received (current) swung to a decrease of 5.7% from last month s increase (1.%) as both the building construction and civil engineering sectors posted larger decreases. By sector, building construction retreated.% and civil engineering receded 5.5%. Floor area started recorded sharply decreased growth of ( 25.7%) from last month (.2%) while that for commercial and industrial space tumbled amid a continued decrease in that for residential space. By purpose, residential space decreased 3.9%, continuing the downward trend while commercial (-18.2%) and industrial space (-32.2%) also receded sharply. Value of Construction Completed (3MA) and Construction Ordered Received (3MA) (Year-on-Year % Change, 3MA) Value of Construction Completed (left, 3MA) Construction Orders Received (right, 3MA) 22

27 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 Exports: Exports of a few items including semiconductors maintained relatively strong growth but the growth in total exports seems to have moderated slightly. November s exports (amount) grew 9.6% on sluggishness in a few items including vessels exhibiting a slowed growth from the average of Sep.-Oct. (2.9%). By item, semiconductors (65.2%) and petroleum products (38.%) maintained favorable growth while vessels turned to a sharp decrease (-77.1%) from last month s increase (35.9%) due to the reduction in order backlogs. Exports (16.9%), excluding vessels, grew slightly lower than the average for Sep.-Oct. (19.8%), meaning that export growth seems to have moderated even when considering the impact from reduced vessel export. October s export volume index descended 1.9% on reduced workdays. * Export volume index (YoY,%): (3Q 17) 9.3 (Sep.) 19.8 (Oct.) -1.9 November s imports, mainly of capital goods, recorded a 12.3% growth, slightly down from the average for Sep.-Oct. (15.1%). By stage-of-processing, primary products, mostly energy resources, advanced 21.% while capital goods increased 19.3%. Trade balance ran a surplus of $7.8 billion, similar to a year ago ($8.7 billion). October s terms of trade deteriorated increase (.8%). 1.5%, a reversal from last month s Exports (3MA), Exports except for Vessel (3MA) and Export Volume Indexes (3MA) (Year-on-Year % Change, 3MA) Exports (3MA) Exports except for vessel (3MA) Exports volume Indexs (3MA)

28 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 October s Balance of Payments The current account recorded a reduced surplus of $5.72 billion from last year ($7.69 billion), led by the increased deficit in the services account. The goods account recorded a slightly decreased surplus of $8.6 billion from last year ($9.16 billion) as imports (5.6%) outgrew exports (3.1%). The services account recorded a sharply increased deficit (-$3.53 billion) from last year (-$1.79 billion), influenced by increased deficits in the travel account (-$.9 billion -$1.67 billion) and other business service account (-$.91 billion -$1.37 billion) mainly due to holiday effects. The primary income account recorded an increased surplus of $1.17 from last year ($.71 billion) due to a rise in investment income ($.73 billion $1.21 billion) while the secondary income account recorded a slightly increased deficit of $.52 billion from last year (-$.39 billion). Seasonally Adjusted Current Account (3MA) and Terms of Trade (3MA) 15 (Hundred Million US Dollars, 3MA) (Year-on-Year % Change, 3MA) S.A. Current Account (left, 3MA) Terms of Trade (right, 3MA) The financial account recorded an $8. billion increase in net assets, down from last month ($12.1 billion). Direct investment marked $.7 billion, down from last month ($2.35 billion) on a sharply decreased growth in outbound investments. Portfolio investment marked -$.17 billion, a reversal from last month s increase ($9.95 billion) as outbound bond investment decreased and inbound investment turned to an increase. Other investments marked $7.67 billion, up from last month ($.85 billion). 2

29 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 Labor Market: Employment growth declined slightly in services due to the Chuseok holidays in October but overall employment conditions changed little from last month. October s employment growth posted 279, (1.%), down from last month (31,, 1.2%). By industry, manufacturing (2, 28,) and construction (18, 118,) exhibited a similar growth to last month while services (16, 115,) posted decreased growth due to the Chuseok and extended holidays. By occupational status, regular workers (375, 356,), temporary workers (-17, -115,) and self-employed (5, 3,) showed similar growth to last month while daily workers (5, 17,) exhibited a reduced growth due to the effect of the Chuseok holidays. On a seasonally adjusted MoM basis, the labor force participation rate edged down by.1%p to 63.% from last month (63.1%) and employment rate(6.7%) stayed the same, meaning that the pace of employment improvement is still modest. The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate recorded 3.6%, down by.1%p from last month. The seasonally adjusted employment rate of those aged 15-6 recorded 66.6%, down by.1%p from last month. Changes in the Number of Employed Persons by Sector 6 (Year-on-Year Change, Thousand Persons) All sectors Serveice sector Manufacturing sector Construction sector

30 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 CPI: November s headline CPI inflation stood at 1.3%, sharply down from last month (1.8%), largely influenced by supply factors. Commodity prices recorded a.5% growth, down from last month (1.5%) as utility fees (water, electricity and gas) dropped further and prices of agricultural, livestock and fishery products exhibited a slowed growth. Prices of agricultural, livestock and fishery products rose.7%, lower than last month (3.%) on the decreasing growth in agricultural product prices such as fruit (2.3% -1.%). Utility fees (water, electricity and gas) recorded a decrease of 6.7%, down further from last month (-1.6%) as gas fees were significantly reduced after unpaid bills were collected. Industrial goods prices rose 1.%, similar to last month (1.5%) as prices of durable goods rose 1.2% from last month (.2%) but those of other industrial goods turned to a decrease (.9% -.5%). Service prices rose 1.8%, lower than last month (2.%) led by overseas group tour costs. Core inflation, excluding agricultural and petroleum products, rose 1.2%, lower than last month (1.3%). Prices of apartment purchases and jeonse rose.1% and.%, respectively, from last month. CPI Change and Contribution by Sector 3 Agricultural Service CPI (Year-on-Year % Change, %p) Manufacturing Electricity, water, and gas Core CPI Note: The sum of sector-by-sector contributions is rounded off to the nearest integer, which may be inconsistent with the growth rate of the total index. 26

31 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 Financial Market: The won appreciated on expectations over economic improvements and a base rate hike while stock prices receded on growing negative forecast about the electrical and electronic industry. As of end-november, the dollar/won exchange rate recorded 1,88.2 won, down by 32.2 won (-2.9%) from a month ago (1,12. won), influenced by expectations of an economic recovery and a base rate hike. The yen/won exchange rate (month-end basis) recorded 97.2 won per 1 yen, down by 21. won (-2.1%) from a month ago (991.2 won). As of end-november, the KOSPI closed at 2,76., down by 1.9% from a month ago (2,523.), on looming concerns about a fall in semiconductor prices. The KOSDAQ closed at 771., sharply up by 11.1% from a month ago on growing expectations of an earnings increase in companies driven by policy support* for innovative firms and SMEs. * Repeal of joint liability guarantee, assistance to innovative startups and their R&D and adoption of a negative regulation system for new future industries As of end-november, government bond yields (3-year maturity) recorded 2.8%, down by 8bp from a month ago on growing expectations that an additional rate hike will be much more gradual than expected; although the effect of the base rate hike was already reflected. 3Q posted a QoQ increase of 31.2 trillion won in household credit to record 1,19.1 trillion won as the upward trend was sustained mainly by other loans from banks and other financial institutions. Household loans from banks (change, trillion won): (3Q 16) 17.2 (3Q 17) 15. Other loans from banks (change, trillion won): (3Q 16) 3.8 (3Q 17) 7. Household loans from other financial institutions (change, trillion won): (3Q 16) 8.6 (3Q 17) 8.9 1,3 (won) Exchange Rates and Stock Price Index 2,6 1,2 2, 1,1 2,2 1, 2, ,8 KRW/USD (left) KOSPI (right)

32 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 World Economy: The global recovery is strengthening led by advanced economies posting improvements in real indicators although concerns persist over a monetary tightening and policy uncertainties in advanced economies. Global industrial production, trade volume and sentiment indices of key economic agents exhibited robust growth, implying that overall real economic conditions maintained a favorable trend. World Industrial Production and Trade World Consumer and Business Confidence 6 (Year-on-Year % Change, 3MA) 3 (Base=, 3MA) Industrial Production Trade Consumer Business Note: OECD+NME. Advanced economies are recovering gradually driven by improvements in domestic demand and manufacturing sentiment index while emerging markets maintained an upward trend in most indicators including exports owing to increased overseas demand and rising oil prices. 65 Manufacturing Indices in the US and Eurozone (Base=5) Exports in China, Russia, and Brazil (Year-on-Year % Change, 3MA) US ISM Eurozone PMI China Russia Brazil 28

33 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 The US maintained a robust growth as its production and consumption growth picked up and employment conditions posted signs of a recovery again. 3Q growth was recorded at 3.3% (annualized YoY basis), higher than the 2Q as housing investment (-5.1%) stagnated but facilities investment (1.%) was adjusted upward from the advance estimate. 6 US Private Consumption and Equipment Investment (QoQ annualized rate, %) 3 US Employment and Consumer Sentiment (MoM Change, 1 Thousand Persons) (Base=1, 3MA) IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III Private Consumption (left) Equipment Investment (right) Employed Persons (left) Consumer Sentiment (right) The Eurozone maintained a modest recovery pace as production and consumption growth picked up and related leading indicators continued to rise despite concerns about the reduction in asset purchases. With a continued recovery across economic sectors, Eurozone countries exhibited a significantly reduced gap in the recovery pace, and employment conditions that were in relatively poor conditions are improving gradually. 1.5 GDP Growth Rates in Eurozone (Quarter-on-Quarter % Change) 5 Industrial Production and Retail Sales in Eurozone (Year-on-Year % Change) / 217 3/ UK France Italy Portugal Eurozone Hungary Germany Spain Finland Industrial Production Retail Sales

34 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 9 Japan maintained a modest recovery with high export growth although a few domestic demand-related indicators such as consumption exhibited waning improvement. October s retail sales turned to a decrease (-.2%) on sluggish sales of foods and beverages and motor vehicles but its exports (1.%) maintained a high growth led by machinery continuing last month s upward trend. Japan's Industrial Production and Retail Sales (Year-on-Year % Change) Japan's Exports and Leading Index (Year-on-Year % Change) (21=1) Industrial Production Retail Sales Exports (left) Leading Index (right) China showed tepid movement in investment-related indicators but the continued growth in private consumption and exports are pointing to a significant reduction in concerns about a real-economic slowdown. 1 During October, its fixed asset investment exhibited decreased growth (7.3%) due to adjusted investment in manufacturing facilities while the retail sales index (1.%) and sentiment indicators continued to improve and exports, mainly to Europe and ASEAN, expanded (7.3%). China's Industrial Production and Retail Sales (Year-on-Year % Change) China's Fixed Asset Investment and Manufacturing PMI (Year-on-Year % Change) 1 (Base=5) Industrial Production Retail Sales Fixed Asset Investment (left) Manufacturing PMI (right) 3

35 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 In November, oil prices shot up to a low-$6 level per barrel influenced by expectations for an output cut extension in oil producing countries, projections of a reduction in the US crude oil inventory and a weakening of the dollar. As of end-november, average oil prices (Dubai) recorded $52.3 per barrel, up by 26.3% from last year and the projection for 218 are being increasingly revised upward, reflecting the continued rise in oil prices. Meanwhile, major commodity price indices including the CRB index continued to trend up as grain and most non-ferrous metal prices dropped but oil prices soared. Oil Price and CRB Index Prices of Key Raw Materials ($/barrel) 7 (1967=1) 21 6 (Month-on-Month % Change) Dubai (left) CRB (right) Nickel Aluminum Zinc Copper Corn Wheat Tin Lead Dubai Note: As of end-nov. compared to end-oct. Major forecasting institutes projected that the global economy will continue its recovery pace as advanced economies domestic demand-related indicators improve and emerging markets post increased growths in export and production. Meanwhile, downside risks persist such as concerns about a monetary tightening and uncertainties in economic policies in advanced economies, vulnerable financial market conditions in emerging markets and geopolitical risks. OECD Outlook for Major Countries (%) World US Eurozone Japan China Brazil Russia Korea Source: OECD, Economic Outlook, November 217.

36 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 Global Financial Markets: Global financial markets exhibited heightened volatility for a short period but restored stability on the continued recovery of the real economy. The dollar turned weak against major currencies on political uncertainties such as a tax revision while long-term interest rates maintained last month s level despite concerns about a monetary tightening. 5 Major Currency Revaluation Rates against USD (%) 3. Long-Term Interest Rates in the US, Germany, and Japan (%) Russia Indonesia China India Singapore Japan UK Eurozone Brazil Korea Malaysia South Africa Mexico Note: As of end-nov. compared to end-oct US Germany Japan Meanwhile, as the sentiment on investment in risk assets was subdued, emerging markets posted losses in stock prices and a temporary steep rise in volatility indices. But, the overall real-economy exhibited a fast recovery while maintaining favorable conditions. VIX and Emerging Market Bond Index 25 2 Changes in Stock Prices (%) VIX (left) EMBI (right) 3 - Mexico Brazil Eurozone China Taiwan Korea Indonesia India Russia US Japan Note: As of end-nov. compared to end-oct. 32

37 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 경제동향주요지표 Major Indicators of the Korean Economy

38 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 국내총생산및국내총소득 (21 년불변가격 ) 민간소비및고정투자(21 년불변가격) GDP and GDI Private Consumption and Fixed Investment (at 21 Constant Prices) (at 21 Constant Prices) 8 ( 전년동기대비,% / Year-on-Year % Change) 2 ( 전년동기대비,% / Year-on-Year % Change) Ⅳ Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ 1 Ⅳ Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ 민간소비 (Private Consumption) 설비투자 (Facilities Investment) 국내총생산 (GDP) 국내총소득 (GDI) 건설투자 (Construction Investment) 상품및서비스수출(21 년불변가격) 상품및서비스수입(21 년불변가격) Exports of Goods and Services Imports of Goods and Services (at 21 Constant Prices) (at 21 Constant Prices) 15 ( 전년동기대비,% / Year-on-Year % Change) 15 ( 전년동기대비,% / Year-on-Year % Change) Ⅳ Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ -5 Ⅳ Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ 상품수출 (Exports of Goods) 서비스수출 (Exports of Services) 상품수입 (Imports of Goods) 서비스수입 (Imports of Services) 3

39 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 1. 국내총생산(21 년불변가격) Gross Domestic Product (at 21 Constant Prices) GDP 민간소비 Private Consumption 설비투자 Facilities Investment 국내총생산 건설투자 Construction Investment 총수출 Total Export 총수입 Total Import ( 조원, Trillion Won) 국내총소득 Gross Domestic Income 213 1, , , , , , p 1, , Ⅳ Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ Ⅰ p Ⅱ p Ⅲ p Ⅳ p Ⅰ p Ⅱ p Ⅲ p 전년동기대비증가율 (%) Percentage Change from the Same Period of the Previous Year p Ⅳ 3.5(.9) 2.2(.7) 11.7( 3.7) 3.5(-2.) 3.1(.9) 5.( 2.2).3(.7) 21 Ⅰ 3.8( 1.) 2.8(.5) 7.5(-.8).5( 3.) 3.5(.9) 2.7(-1.2).7( 1.2) Ⅱ 3.5(.6) 1.7(-.5) 8.( 1.6).3(.) 2.8(.8) 2.( 1.) 3.7(.7) Ⅲ 3.(.7) 1.(.8).3(.1) 2.3(-.1) 1.3(-1.2) 1.7(-.3) 3.(.2) Ⅳ 2.7(.) 1.(.3).2( 3.2) -1.7(-.9).7(.2) -.(.) 3.7( 1.6) 215 Ⅰ 2.6(.8) 1.5(.9) 5.(.3).( 9.) -.5(-.3).9(.1) 6.3( 3.6) Ⅱ 2.(.) 1.7(-.3).3(.8).6( 1.) -1.(-.2).(.7) 6.5(.9) Ⅲ 3.( 1.3) 2.2( 1.3) 6.( 1.9) 7.6( 2.1) -.(.1) 2.( 1.2) 7.2(.9) Ⅳ 3.2(.7) 3.( 1.5) 3.1(.) 9.6(-2.2) 1.7( 2.1) 5.( 2.9) 6.3(.8) 216 Ⅰ p 2.9(.5) 2.3(-.1) -.6(-7.) 9.( 7.6) 1.3(-.6) 3.(-1.5) 5.7( 3.) Ⅱ p 3.(.9) 3.5(.8) -2.9( 2.6) 1.6( 3.1) 2.6( 1.).8( 2.2).7(-.1) Ⅲ p 2.6(.5) 2.7(.6) -3.9(.9) 11.2( 2.2) 3.( 1.) 6.5( 2.6) 3.3(-.5) Ⅳ p 2.(.5) 1.5(.2) 2.( 5.9) 11.6(-1.2) 1.2(-.1) 3.3(-.1) 3.1(.8) 217 Ⅰ p 2.9( 1.1) 2.(.) 1.(.) 11.3( 6.8) 3.9( 2.1) 9.9(.8) 2.6( 2.6) Ⅱ p 2.7(.6) 2.3( 1.) 17.3( 5.2) 8.(.3).(-2.9) 6.(-1.) 2.9(.) Ⅲ p 3.8( 1.5) 2.5(.8) 17.(.7) 7.6( 1.5) 5.( 6.1) 8.5(.7) 5.2( 1.7) 주 : 1) p 는잠정치. 2) ( ) 는계절조정전기대비증가율. 자료 : 한국은행. Note: 1) p is preliminary. 2) Figures in parentheses indicate percentage changes from the previous period (S.A.). Source: Bank of Korea. 35

40 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 생산지수 Production Indices 출하지수및재고지수 Shipment and Inventory Indices 1 ( 전년동기대비, % / Year-on-Year % Change) 9 ( 전년동기대비, % / Year-on-Year % Change) 전산업생산지수 (All Industry Prod. Index) 광공업생산지수 (Mining and Manufac. Prod. Index) 서비스업생산지수 (Service Prod. Index) 출하지수 (Shipment Index) 재고지수 (Inventory Index) 경기종합지수순환변동치한국은행 BSI 제조업실적및전망(S.A.) Cyclical Component of Economic Indices BOK Business Survey Index (Seasonally Adjusted) 12 ( 기준 =1 / Base=1) 9 ( 기준 =1 / Base=1) 동행지수순환변동치 (Composite Coincident Index) 선행지수순환변동치 (Composite Leading Index) BSI 제조업실적 (BSI Manufac. Tendency) BSI 제조업전망 (BSI Manufac. Future Tendency) 36

41 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 2. 경기 Economic Activity 전산업 2) All Industry Production 생산지수 Production Indices 광공업 3) Mining and Manufacturing Production 서비스업 Service Production 생산자제품 Producer's Product 출하 Shipment 재고 Inventory 경기종합지수순환변동치 1) Cyclical Component of Economic Indices 동행지수 Composite Coincident Index 선행지수 Composite Leading Index ( 전년동기대비, % / Year-on-Year % Change) 한국은행 BSI 1) ( 제조업, 계절조정) BOK BSI (Manufacturing, S.A.) 실적 Tendency 전망 Future Tendency 제조업평균가동률 Capacity Utilization Rate (%) Ⅳ 2.7 (.3). (-1.) 3.3 ( 1.2). (-.7) 3.3 (-6.) Ⅰ 2.1 (.2) -.3 (-.6) 2.8 (.2) -.8 (-1.6) 3.1 ( 3.6) Ⅱ 3.2 ( 1.3).7 ( 1.) 3.5 ( 1.1) 1.2 ( 2.1) -2. (-2.3) Ⅲ 3. (.9).5 (.1) 3.6 ( 1.) -.1 (-.3) -7.8 (-3.2) Ⅳ 3.5 (.) 2.8 (.6) 2.1 (-.3) 2. ( 1.2) -5.8 (-3.1) Ⅰ 3.9 ( 1.3) 3.7 ( 1.6) 2.6 (.9) 3. (.5) -5.6 ( 2.7) Ⅱ 2.7 (-.3).5 (-2.3) 2.3 (.6). (-2.) -1.7 ( 1.9) Ⅲ p 3.9 ( 1.3) 3.5 ( 1.5) 3.2 ( 1.) 3.9 ( 2.) 2. (.7) Ⅳ ( 1.8). ( 3.5) 3.6 (.3) 3.8 ( 2.). (.1) (.1).9 (-1.1).9 (.) 1.6 (-.3) -2. (-.) (.5) 1.5 ( 1.1) 3.2 (.).7 (.1) -.9 (-2.8) (-.) 2.2 (-2.3). (.3) 1.7 (-1.6) -5.3 (.) (.1) -2. (.7) 2.9 (-.3) -2.6 (.) -7.8 (-.8) (-.6) -1.2 (-.9) 2. (-.5) -1.9 (-.6) -6.2 (.) ( 1.) 5. ( 3.1) 2.6 (.3).7 ( 2.8) -6. (-1.1) (.3).3 (-.) 1.9 (.5).7 (.5) -5.8 (-2.) (.5) 1.3 ( 2.8) 2.6 (.2) 1. (.5) -5.8 ( 2.) (-.3) 6.7 (-3.3) 2.5 (.3) 7.3 (-2.5) -6. (.) ( 1.3) 3.3 ( 1.3) 2.8 (.3) 1.8 ( 1.2) -5.6 (.3) (-1.) 1.9 (-2.2) 2. (.1).5 (-2.3) -.8 ( 2.9) (-.1).3 (.3) 2.3 (-.1) -.6 (-.3) 1.3 ( 2.6) (.) -. (-.) 2.1 (.6).2 ( 2.) -1.7 (-3.5) ( 1.) -.3 ( 1.6) 2.3 (.6).6 (.7) 1.8 (.9) p 2.5 (.) 2.3 (.1) 2.1 (.1) 2.6 (.3) 3.3 ( 2.) p 7. (.8) 8. (.2) 5.3 ( 1.) 8. (-.3) 2. (-2.2) p -2.2 (-1.5) -5.9 (-1.1) -.2 (-1.7) -6.2 (-1.) 6.1 (.1) 주 : 1) 기준치=1. 2) 21~15 년연간지수는농림어업포함. 3) 광업, 제조업, 전기 가스업을포함. ) p 는잠정치( 한국은행 BSI 제외). 5) ( ) 는계절조정전기대비증가율. 자료 : 통계청; 한국은행. Note: 1) Base=1. 2) Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries sectors is included for annual index in 21~15. 3) Mining & Manufacturing, Electricity & Gas Industry. ) p is preliminary (BOK BSI are excluded). 5) Figures in parentheses indicate percentage changes from the previous period (S.A.). Source: Statistics Korea; Bank of Korea. 37

42 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 민간소비( 소비재) 와소매판매액지수유형별소매판매액지수 Private Consumption (Consumer Goods) and Retail Retail Sales Index by Group of Goods Sales Index 1 ( 전년동기대비, % / Year-on-Year % Change) 25 ( 전년동기대비, % / Year-on-Year % Change) 민간소비 ( 소비재 ) (Private Comsumption (Consumer Goods)) 소매판매액지수 (Retail Sales Index) 내구재 (Durable goods) 준내구재 (Semi-durable goods) 비내구재 (Non-durable goods) 소비재출하지수및소비재수입액 Consumer Goods Shipment Index and Consumer Goods Import 소비자동향조사 Consumer Survey 2 ( 전년동기대비, % / Year-on-Year % Change) 116 ( 기준 =1 / Base=1) 소비재출하 (Consumer Goods Shipment Index) 소비재수입 (Consumer Goods Import) 소비자심리지수 (Composite Consumer Sentiment Index) 소비지출전망 (Prospective Household Spending) 38

43 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 3. 소비 Consumption Retail Sales Index 소매판매액지수 유형별지수 by Group of Goods 비내구재준내구재 Non-durable Semidurable 내구재 Durable 승용차 Automobile 소비재출하 Consumer Goods Shipment Index 소비재수입 1) Consumer Goods Import ( 전년동기대비, % / Year-on-Year % Change) 소비자심리지수 Composite Consumer Sentiment Index (CCSI) 소비자동향조사 2) Consumer Survey 현재경기판단 Current Domestic Economic Conditions 향후경기전망 Prospective Domestic Economic Conditions 소비지출전망 Prospective Household Spending Ⅳ 2. (.1) Ⅰ 2. ( 1.) Ⅱ 3.9 (.7) Ⅲ 3.6 ( 1.1) Ⅳ 6.3 ( 2.9) Ⅰ 5. (-.2) Ⅱ 5.9 ( 2.) Ⅲ 3.5 (-1.2) Ⅳ 2.5 ( 2.1) Ⅰ 1.9 (-.5) Ⅱ 1.7 ( 1.2) Ⅲ p.3 ( 1.1) (-3.3) (.2) (-.3) (-.) (-2.1) ( 3.2) (-.3) (.7) (-1.1) ( 1.3) (.2) (-.8) p 8. ( 3.1) p -.2 (-2.9) 주 : 1) 소비재수입액을전월의소비재수입물가지수로실질화. 2) 기준=1. 3) p 는잠정치( 단, 소비자동향조사는제외). ) ( ) 는계절조정전기대비증가율. 자료 : 한국은행; 통계청; 한국무역협회. Note: 1) Nominal consumer goods import deflated by import price index (consumer goods) of the previous month. 2) Base=1. 3) p is preliminary (Consumer survey is excluded). ) Figures in parentheses indicate percentage changes from the previous period (S.A.). Source: Bank of Korea; Statistics Korea; Korea International Trade Association. 39

44 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 형태별설비투자지수 Equipment Investment Index by Type 설비투자지수와기계류내수출하지수 Equipment Investment Index and Domestic Machinery Shipment Index 6 ( 전년동기대비, % / Year-on-Year % Change) ( 전년동기대비, % / Year-on-Year % Change) 기계류 (Machinery) 운송장비 (Transport Equipment) 설비투자지수 (Equipment Investment Index) 기계류내수출하지수 (Domestic Machinery Shipment Index) 자본재수입액과기계류수입액 Import of Capital Goods and Machinery Import 국내기계수주 Domestic Machinery Orders Received 75 ( 전년동기대비, % / Year-on-Year % Change) 75 ( 전년동기대비, % / Year-on-Year % Change) 자본재수입액 (Import of Capital Goods) 기계류수입액 (Machinery Import) 총수주액 (Total) 민간수주액 (Private)

45 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1. 설비투자 Equipment Investment Equipment Investment Index 설비투자지수 기계류 Machinery 운송장비 Transport Equipment 기계류내수출하지수 1) Domestic Machinery Shipment Index 기계류수입액 2) Machinery Import Domestic Machinery Orders Received ( 십억원, Billion Won, 21=1) 국내기계수주 3) 공공 Public 민간 Private ,671 25,53 1,921 23, ,988 26,13 2,82 23, Ⅲ ,273 5, ,212 Ⅳ ,516 7,9 1,167 6, Ⅰ ,665 8, ,59 Ⅱ ,39 8, ,218 Ⅲ p ,979 7, , ,399 1, , ,81 2, , ,3 3, , ,337 2, , ,3 2, , ,29 3, , ,386 2, , ,779 2, , ,276 3, , ,816 2, , ,531 2, ,21 9 p ,632 2, ,27 1 p ,32 2, ,15 전년동기대비증가율 (%) Percentage Change from the Same Period of the Previous Year Ⅲ -.7 ( -1.9) ( -6.2) Ⅳ 5.9 ( 8.) ( 26.) Ⅰ 18.1 ( 5.6) (.9) Ⅱ 17.7 (.) ( 8.3) Ⅲ p 2.5 ( -.) ( -.) ( -.9) ( -8.1) ( 6.) ( 18.3) ( 5.8) ( 51.8) ( 1.) ( -38.) ( -8.5) ( 31.) ( 13.) ( -.2) ( -3.9) (.1) ( 2.2) ( -13.5) (.8) ( 16.8) ( -5.3) ( -.) ( -.8) ( -.) p 2.9 ( 5.3) ( -5.5) p -3. (-1.) ( -3.1) 주 : 1) 선박제외. 2) 백만달러. 3) 선박제외, 21 년불변가격. ) p 는잠정치( 단, 기계류수입액은제외). 5) ( ) 는계절조정전기대비증가율. 자료 : 한국은행; 통계청; 무역협회. Note: 1) Vessels are excluded. 2) Million US Dollars. 3) Vessels are excluded, at 21 Constant Prices. ) p is preliminary (Machinery Import is excluded). 5) Figures in parentheses indicate percentage changes from the previous period (S.A.). Source: Bank of Korea; Statistics Korea; International Trade Association. 1

46 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 건설기성액( 불변가격) 및국내건설수주공사종류별건설기성액( 불변가격) Construction Completed (at 21 Constant Prices) Value of Construction Completed by Type and Construction Orders Received (at 21 Constant Prices) 28 ( 전년동기대비, % / Year-on-Year % Change) 12 ( 전년동기대비, % / Year-on-Year % Change) 건설기성액 ( 좌 ) / Value of Cons. Completed (left) 국내건설수주 ( 우 ) / Cons. Orders Received (right) 건축 (Building) 토목 (Civil Engineering) 건축허가면적및건축착공면적 Building Construction Permits and Building Construction Initiated 주택인허가및미분양주택수 Housing Construction Permits and Number of Unsold Houses 6 ( 전년동기대비, % / Year-on-Year % Change) 16 ( 전년동기대비, % / Y-on-Y % Change) ( 전월비, 천호 / M-on-M Thousand Units) 건축허가면적 (Building Construction Permits) 건축착공면적 (Building Construction Initiated) 주택인허가 ( 좌 ) / Housing Construction Permits (left) 미분양 ( 우 ) / Num. of Unsold Houses (right) -1 2