Contents 주요경제지표 Major Economic Indicators 요약및평가 Summary and Assessment 경제동향주요지표 Major Indicators of the Korean Economy 1. 국내총생산 (21 년불변가격 ) 35 Gross D

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1 총괄국내총생산경기소비설비투자건설투자대외거래노동시장물가금융시장재정세계경제 김성태 김성태이우열정대희김동영권규호한일수권규호한일수송인호송보라정규철이유진박윤수박소현정대희원선재김지섭양유진김성태이우열이상규신형섭구희일 본자료는 KDI 홈페이지를통해서도보실수있습니다.

2 Contents 주요경제지표 Major Economic Indicators 요약및평가 Summary and Assessment 경제동향주요지표 Major Indicators of the Korean Economy 1. 국내총생산 (21 년불변가격 ) 35 Gross Domestic Product (at 21 Constant Prices) 2. 경기 37 Economic Activity 3. 소비 39 Consumption. 설비투자 1 Equipment Investment 5. 건설투자 3 Construction Investment 6-1. 수출, 수입및교역조건 5 Exports, Imports and Terms of Trade 6-2. 경상수지및금융계정 7 Current Account and Financial Account 7. 고용및임금 9 Employment and Wage 8. 물가 51 Price Indices 9-1. 금융시장 (I) 53 Financial Market (I) 9-2. 금융시장 (II) 55 Financial Market (II) 1-1. 세계경제동향 (I) 57 Major Indicators of the World Economy (I) 1-2. 세계경제동향 (II) 59 Major Indicators of the World Economy (II)

3 주요경제지표 Major Economic Indicators ( 전년동기대비증가율, % / Year-on-Year % Change) Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ 전산업생산 All Industry Production 광공업생산 Industrial Production 서비스업생산 Service Production 소매판매액 Retail Sales Index 설비투자지수 Equipment Investment Index 건설기성액 ( 불변 ) Value of Construction Completed (Constant Price) 수출 ( 통관 ) Exports (f.o.b.) 수입 ( 통관 ) Imports (c.i.f.) 무역수지 ( 십억달러 ) Balance of Trade (Billion US Dollars) 실업률 Unemployment Rate 취업자수 Number of Employed 소비자물가 Consumer Price 국고채 3-year Treasury Bonds 종합주가지수 KOSPI 원 / 달러환율 Won/Dollar Exchange Rate OECD 경기선행지수 OECD Composite Leading Indicator 유가 ( 두바이, 달러 / 배럴 ) Oil Prices (Dubai, US$/Barrel) ,916 1,961 2,1 2,7 1,963 1,961 1,961 1,912 1,917 1,99.2 1,172. 1,15. 1,12.1 1,19.5 1,172. 1,172. 1,28. 1, 주 : 국고채수익률 종합주가지수 원 / 달러환율은기말기준, 유가 ( 두바이 ) 는기간평균기준임.

4 요약및평가 최근주요지표의부진이지속되면서우리경제의성장세가둔화되고있는것으로판단됨. 일부지표가최근의증가세를유지하고있으나, 내수전반의개선추세는약화되고있음. 건설투자는건축부문을중심으로양호한흐름을유지하고있음. 그러나설비투자는감소세를지속하며부진한모습이며, 투자관련선행지수도점차약화되고있음. 아울러민간소비는내구재를중심으로점차둔화되고있으며, 소비자심리지수도기준치 (1) 를하회하는수준까지하락이와함께세계경제의성장세둔화로수출이큰폭의감소세를지속함에따라광공업생산과출하는부진이심화되고있음. 2월중수출은조업일수등의영향으로감소폭이축소되었으나, 조업일수를조정한일평균수출액은여전히큰폭의감소세를지속 이에따라, 광공업생산및출하가주요품목에서감소한가운데재고율은높은수준에머물러있어향후에도광공업생산부진이지속될가능성을시사이러한우리경제의성장세둔화는대외여건이예상보다빠르게악화된데주로기인한것으로판단됨. 대외불확실성확대로금융시장이다소불안한모습이나, 저유가로인해경상수지흑자가확대되는등우리경제의대외건전성은비교적양호한상황임. 별도의언급이없을경우모든증가율은전년동월대비기준임. 1

5 경기 : 서비스업생산이완만한증가세를유지하고있으나, 광공업생산과출하의부진이심화되면서경기가점차둔화되는모습 1월중전산업생산은광공업을비롯한대부분의산업에서둔화되면서전월 (2.6%) 보다낮은전년동월대비 1.8% 의증가율을기록 서비스업생산은예술, 스포츠및여가관련서비스업등일부업종에서감소하여전월 (3.5%) 보다낮은전년동월대비 3.% 의증가율을기록 광공업생산은수출부진이심화됨에따라자동차 (-3.1%) 및 ICT(-2.9%) 등주요업종에서감소하면서전월 (-2.2%) 에이어부진 (-1.9%) 한모습을지속 아울러, 제조업평균가동률은작년평균 (76.2%) 을크게하회하는 72.6% 를기록하는등제조업생산이전반적으로저조한수준임을시사 광공업생산지수 (3MA) 및서비스업생산지수 (3MA) ( 전년동기대비, %, 3 개월이동평균 ) 광공업생산지수 (3MA) 서비스업생산지수 (3MA) 제조업출하는수출출하를중심으로부진이심화되었으며, 이에따라재고율은다시상승하는모습 내수출하 (.% -1.%) 가감소로전환된가운데, 수출출하 (-.2% -7.%) 의감소폭이확대되면서제조업출하는전월 (-1.7%) 보다큰폭낮은전년동월대비 3.9% 의증가율을기록 한편, 제조업재고율 ( 재고 / 출하비율 ) 은자동차및 ICT 등을중심으로전월 (12.6%) 보다큰폭상승한 128.% 를기록 2

6 출하지수 (3MA) 와재고율 ( 전년동기대비, %, 3 개월이동평균 ) (%) 출하지수 ( 좌, 3MA) 재고율 ( 우 ) 19 동행지수순환변동치도광공업생산및출하부진이지속되면서전월 (1.7) 에비해하락한 1.5를기록 선행지수순환변동치는재고순환지표 ( 출하증가율 재고증가율 ) 와소비자기대지수등이하락하면서전월 (12.2) 보다낮은 12.을기록 동행지수순환변동치와선행지수순환변동치 13 ( 기준 =1) 동행지수순환변동치 선행지수순환변동치 3

7 소비 : 소매판매가소폭개선되었으나, 소비심리가지속적으로위축되는등향후민간소 비의증가세가약화될가능성 1 월중소매판매액지수는승용차판매의감소에도불구하고비내구재가일시적으로 크게증가한데주로기인하여전년동월대비.5% 의증가율을기록 형태별로는비내구재와준내구재가일시적요인으로 8.7%,.9% 증가하였으나, 내구재는 소매판매증가를주도하던승용차판매가감소 (-6.7%) 로전환되며 2.9% 감소 서비스업생산은 3.% 증가하며전월 (3.5%) 보다증가세가소폭둔화되었고, 민간소 비와관련이높은업종은상대적으로낮은증가세를지속하고있음. 도소매업은기저효과에주로기인하여 3.1% 증가하였고, 숙박및음식점업과예술, 스포 츠및여가는각각.9%, 2.2% 감소 한편, 2 월중소비자심리지수가전월 (1) 보다하락한 98 을기록하며기준치 (1) 를 하회하는등소비심리는점차위축되는모습 구성항목별로는가계수입전망 (-2p) 과소비지출전망 (-2p) 이소비자심리지수의하락을주도 소매판매액지수 (3MA) 및소비자심리지수 ( 전년동기대비, %, 3개월이동평균 ) ( 기준 =1) 소매판매액지수 ( 좌, 3MA) 소비자심리지수 ( 우 ) 96

8 설비투자 : 설비투자는기계류투자의부진이심화되면서점차둔화되고있으며, 제조업평균가동률이지속적으로하락하는등설비투자수요가단기간내에개선되기는어려울것으로판단됨. 1월중설비투자지수는전월 (-1.3%) 보다감소폭이확대된전년동월대비 5.5% 의증가율을기록 형태별로는항공기수입이일시적으로확대되면서운송장비가 16.% 증가하였으나, 비중이큰기계류는감소폭 (-13.2%) 이확대되는모습 * 기계류 ( 전년동월대비, %): ( 15년 11월 ) -1.3 (12월) ( 16년 1월 ) 설비투자지수는계절조정전월대비로도전월의증가 (3.7%) 에서 6.% 감소로전환설비투자관련선행지표들도낮은수준에머물러있어설비투자의부진이지속될가능성을시사 기계류내수출하가 9.5% 감소하여부진을지속하고있으며, 2월중기계류수입액속보치 (2.1~2.2) 도 2.% 감소하여 2월에도기계류가개선되기는어려울것으로사료됨. 국내기계수주도공공및민간부문에서모두감소하면서 16.1% 의감소를기록 수출부진이지속되고있는가운데제조업평균가동률이 72.6% 까지하락하여설비투자수요가단기간내에개선되기는어려울것으로판단됨. 설비투자지수및제조업평균가동률 3 ( 전년동기대비, %, 3 개월이동평균 ) (%) 설비투자지수 ( 좌, 3MA) 제조업평균가동률 ( 우 ) 72 5

9 건설투자 : 건설기성이건축부문을중심으로증가세를유지하였으며, 아파트거래량도 비교적높은수준을지속하고있음. 1 월중건설기성 ( 불변 ) 은건축부문의증가폭이확대되면서전월 (12.8%) 에이어전 년동월대비 1.3% 의높은증가율을기록 토목부문이전월 (3.5%) 의증가에서감소 (-7.8%) 로전환되었으나, 건축부문은전월 (19.9%) 에이어비교적높은 2.9% 의증가율을기록 건설수주는건축부문의기저효과에주로기인하여전월 (11.6%) 의증가에서감소 (-6.%) 로전환 공종별로는토목부문이 1.% 증가하며전월 (53.%) 의증가세를유지한반면, 건축부문은 작년 1 월의높은증가 (73.5%) 에기인하여전년동월대비 19.7% 의낮은증가율을기록 한편, 아파트거래량은기저효과등으로감소하였으나, 여전히 21 년이후의 1 월평 균보다는높은수준을유지하고있어비교적양호한모습 아파트거래량은작년 1 월 (8,97 필지, 22.3%) 의높은증가에기인하여 16.7% 감소한 7,755 필지를기록하였으나, 21 년이후 1 월평균거래량 (62,693 필지 ) 을크게상회 건설기성액 (3MA) 과국내건설수주액 (3MA) 2 ( 전년동기대비, %, 3개월이동평균 ) 건설기성액 ( 좌, 3MA) 건설수주액 ( 우, 3MA) 6

10 수출 : 수출은 2월중조업일수의증가로감소폭이축소되었으나, 중국을중심으로세계경제의성장세가둔화되면서부진한흐름을지속 2월중수출은조업일수증가의영향으로전월 (-18.8%) 보다감소폭이축소된전년동월대비 12.2% 의증가율을기록하였으나, 일평균수출은여전히큰폭으로감소하고있어부진이지속되고있음을시사 조업일수를조정한일평균수출액이전월 (-15.6%) 에이어큰폭으로감소 ( 16.2%) 하면서, 수출이개선되지못하고있음을시사 품목별로는석유류 (-15.%), 반도체 (-12.6%), 자동차및부품 (-6.7%) 등주요품목에서부진을지속하였고, 지역별로는중국 (-12.9%) 과일본 (-15.%) 을중심으로감소세를지속 아울러, 중국을중심으로세계경제성장세가둔화되고있으며경기선행지수도기준을하회하는등전반적인수출여건이악화되고있음. 수입은저유가가지속되면서전월 (-2.%) 에이어큰폭 ( 1.6%) 으로감소 원유수입은수입단가가 1.1% 하락하면서감소세 (-3.6%) 를지속함. 무역수지는전년동월 (7.7 억달러 ) 과유사한 7. 억달러의흑자를기록 일평균수출액 (3MA) 과 OECD+NME 경기선행지수 8 ( 전년동기대비, %, 3 개월이동평균 ) ( 기준 =1) 일평균수출액 ( 좌, 3MA) OECD+NME 경기선행지수 ( 우 ) 주 : 주요신흥국 (NME) 은브라질, 중국, 인도, 인도네시아, 러시아, 남아프리카공화국을의미함. 7

11 1 월중국제수지 경상수지는상품수지흑자가확대되면서전년동월 (62.6억달러 ) 보다높은 7.6 억달러의흑자를기록 상품수지는저유가에따른수입가격하락으로상품수입 (-23.1%) 의감소세가지속되며전년동월 (63.1억달러 ) 보다흑자폭이확대된 81.1억달러를기록 서비스수지는건설수지가악화되었으나, 지식재산권사용료와여행수지가개선되면서전년동월 (-19.9억달러 ) 과유사한 19.억달러의적자를기록 한편, 계절조정경상수지도 112.7억달러흑자를기록하며전월 (85.9억달러 ) 에비해흑자폭이크게확대됨. 계절조정경상수지 (3MA) 와교역조건 (3MA) 1 ( 억달러, 3 개월이동평균 ) ( 전년동기대비, %, 3 개월이동평균 ) 계절조정경상수지 ( 좌, 3MA) 교역조건 ( 우, 3MA) 금융계정은순자산증가가전월 (78.6억달러 ) 보다축소된 6.8억달러를기록 직접투자는내국인의해외직접투자감소등으로전월의 1.2억달러증가에서.7억달러감소로전환 증권투자는내국인의해외주식투자감소에기인하여전월 (6.억달러 ) 보다축소된 6.5억달러증가를기록 기타투자는현금및예금자산의감소등으로전월 (15.억달러 ) 보다축소된 3.억달러증가를기록 8

12 노동시장 : 제조업 상용직을중심으로 3만명대의고용증가세가유지되는가운데, 임금도최근의상승세를지속하는모습 1월중취업자는일시적요인이사라지면서전월 (9만 5천명, 2.%) 보다는증가폭이축소되었으나, 여전히양호한증가세 ( 전년동월대비 33만 9천명, 1.%) 를유지 산업별로는제조업 (1만 5천명, 3.3%) 이전월 (1만 6천명, 3.3%) 과유사한취업자증가폭을기록하였으나, 전월의양호한날씨의영향이사라지면서도소매업 (-12만 5천명, 3.2%) 과농림어업 (-7만 천명, 7.6%) 에서는취업자감소폭이확대됨. 종사상지위별로는상용직 (5만 9천명,.1%) 의양호한증가세가지속된가운데, 임시직 (1만 9천명,.%) 은도소매업, 공공행정등을중심으로전월 (11만 3천명, 2.3%) 에비해증가폭이크게축소됨. 1월중계절조정고용률 (15~6세) 과계절조정경제활동참가율은각각전월에비해.2%p씩하락한 66.% 및 62.7% 를기록 계절조정실업률은전월과동일한 3.5% 를유지 12월중상용근로자 5인이상사업체의명목임금 ( 상용근로자, 정액급여 ) 은전년동월대비.3% 상승하면서개선추세가점차확대되는모습 ( 15년 8월 ) 3.2% (9월) 3.1% (1월) 3.5% (11월) 3.8% (12월).3% 취업자증감, 계절조정경제활동참가율및고용률 (15~6 세 ) 1, ( 전년동월대비, 천명 ) (%) 취업자증감 ( 좌 ) 계절조정경제활동참가율 ( 우 ) 계절조정 15~6 세고용률 ( 우 ) 6.5 9

13 물가 : 2월중소비자물가는농축수산물을중심으로전월 (.8%) 보다높은전년동월대비 1.3% 의상승률을기록상품물가는석유류가격의하락폭이축소되는가운데, 농축수산물가격이비교적큰폭으로상승하면서전월 ( 1.1%) 보다높은전년동월대비.1% 의상승률을기록 농축수산물가격은농산물가격 (2.% 7.2%) 을중심으로전월 (2.%) 보다높은전년동월대비 5.6% 의상승률을기록 공업제품가격은석유류가격 (-1.3% -8.%) 의하락폭이축소되면서전월 (-.8%) 보다높은.2% 의상승률을기록 한편, 전기 수도 가스는전월 (-8.1%) 과유사한 8.% 의상승률을기록서비스가격은개인서비스가격의상승폭이확대되면서전년동월대비 2.% 의상승률을기록농산물및석유류를제외한근원물가는전월 (1.7%) 보다소폭상승한전년동월대비 1.8% 의상승률을기록하였으며, 식료품및에너지제외지수도전월 (1.9%) 보다높은 2.% 의상승률을기록아파트매매가격과전세가격은전월 (.1% 와.2%) 보다낮은전월대비 -.% 와.2% 의상승률을기록 소비자물가추이및부문별기여도 3 ( 전년동기대비, %, %p) 농축수산물공업제품서비스 전기 수도 가스소비자물가근원물가 주 : 부문별기여도의합은반올림으로총지수의증감률과일치하지않을수있음. 1

14 금융시장 : 국내금융시장은대외불확실성이확대되면서원화가치가하락하고주식시장의변동성도증가하는등다소불안한모습을보임. 2월말원 / 달러환율은미국금리인상및브렉시트 (Brexit) 등대외불확실성이확대되면서전월말 (1,28.원 ) 대비 27.원이상승한 1,235.원을기록 원 /1엔환율은일본의마이너스금리도입에도불구하고안전자산선호심리가강화되면서전월말 (1,17.1원 ) 대비큰폭 (68.7원) 으로상승한 1,85.8원을기록종합주가지수는월초반에대외불확실성으로인해변동성이확대되었으나, 이후투자심리가개선되며전월말 (1,912.1) 과유사한 1,916.7까지회복됨. 국고채 (3년만기 ) 금리는기준금리인하에대한기대등의영향으로전월말 (1.56%) 대비 11bp 하락한 1.5% 를기록 이에따라장단기금리차 (3년만기국고채 Call금리 ) 는전월의 6bp에서 7bp로전환한편, 1월중은행가계대출은계절요인으로인해전월대비증가폭은축소되었으나예년대비로는여전히빠르게증가하고있음. 은행가계대출 ( 기간중증감액, 조원 ): ( 13년 1월 ) -1.6 ( 1년 1월 ) -2.2 ( 15년 1월 ) 1. ( 16년 1월 ) 2.2 환율및주가 1,3 ( 원 ) 2,2 1,2 2,1 1,1 1, 2, 9 1, 원 / 달러 ( 좌 ) 원 /1 엔 ( 좌 ) KOSPI( 우 ) 1,8 11

15 세계경제 : 세계경제는신흥국을중심으로성장세가둔화되는가운데, 미국의금리인상및브렉시트우려, 저유가지속등하방위험도여전히높은것으로판단됨. 선진국은미국과유로존이소비를중심으로완만한회복세를유지하고있으나, 일본은수출이예상을하회하는낮은수준에머물면서실물경기전반이위축된모습 주요선진국의경제성장률 주요선진국의소매판매 9 ( 전기대비연율, %) 12 ( 전년동기대비, %) I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV 미국유로존일본 미국유로존일본 신흥시장국은내수와수출이모두부진을지속하고있으며, 특히브라질, 러시아등 원자재수출국가는경기침체가장기화되는모습 주요신흥국의경제성장률 주요신흥국의수출 / ( 전년동기대비, %) 2 ( 전년동기대비, %, 3 개월이동평균 ) / 브라질러시아타이완남아공멕시코인도네시아중국인도 주 : 브라질및러시아는 215 년 2/ 분기와 3/ 분기기준임 중국브라질러시아 12

16 미국경제는생산감소세와심리지수하락세가지속되고있으나, 소비가개선되고있으며고용관련지표도양호한흐름을보이고있음. 작년 /분기성장률이 1.%( 전기대비연율 ) 로상향조정되었으며, 1월에도가계소비증가율 (2.9%) 과근원개인소비지출물가상승률 (1.7%) 이확대된것으로나타남. 미국의생산과개인소비지출 미국의실업률과근원개인소비지출물가 6 ( 전년동기대비, %) 5 7. (%) ( 전년동기대비, %) 산업생산 ( 좌 ) 개인소비 ( 우 ) 실업률 ( 좌 ) 근원개인소비지출물가 ( 우 ) 유로존경제는금융기관의신용위험확대및브렉시트우려등으로심리지수가하락하였으나, 민간소비중심의완만한경기회복세는유지 12월중산업생산이 1.3% 감소하였으나소비 (1.%) 가증가세를유지함에따라 /분기전기대비경제성장률은전분기와동일한.3% 를기록 유로존주요국의경제성장률 유로존의생산과제조업심리지수 1.5 ( 전기대비, %) ( 전년동기대비, %) ( 기준 =5) / / 그리스 핀란드 이탈리아 프랑스 포르투갈 유로존 네덜란드 독일 영국 스페인 헝가리 산업생산 ( 좌 ) 제조업PMI( 우 ) 13

17 일본경제는가계소비의악화로작년 /분기전기대비성장률이 -.% 로하락한가운데, 소비및수출부진이지속되면서경기전반에대한우려가확대 1월중소비가연료판매부진으로.1% 감소하였으며, 수출도중국등신흥국을중심으로전월에이어감소폭 (-12.9%) 이빠르게확대되고있음. 일본의경제성장률과부문별성장기여도 2 ( 전기대비, %, %p) 3 일본의수출과수입 ( 전년동기대비, %) I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV 순수출내수 GDP 수출 수입 중국경제는주요선행지표가예상을하회하고, 수출입도모두큰폭으로감소하면서실물경기의부진이지속되고있음을시사 1월중수출증가율이선진국을중심으로 -11.5% 까지하락한가운데, 수입도유가하락과내수위축등이반영되면서 18.8% 감소한것으로나타남. 6 중국의수출과수입 ( 전년동기대비, %) 중국의제조업심리지수와경기선행지수 ( 기준 =5) ( 기준 =1) 수출 수입 제조업 PMI( 좌 ) 경기선행지수 ( 우 ) 1

18 2 월중국제유가는일부산유국이생산량동결에합의하고, 미국의원유생산감소 우려도제기되면서월중반이후다시상승 다만, 곡물가격이큰폭하락함에따라 CRB 지수등주요상품가격지수는하락세를지속 주요원자재가격 주요상품가격지수 6 ( 전월대비, %) 32 2,8 28 2, , , , 소맥 옥수수 니켈 구리 알루미늄 Dubai CRB( 좌 ) 로이터 ( 우 ) 주 : 원자재가격은 2월중 ( 기말기준 ) 증가율임. 주 : 로이터지수는 2월 26일기준. 한편, 216년유가는연평균 3달러대중후반을기록하며작년대비 3% 정도하락할것으로예상되고있음. 향후국제유가는원유공급축소등으로완만하게상승할것으로예상되는가운데, 비교적낮은수준에서장기간머물러있을가능성도높은것으로평가 216년유가전망 (EIA) 12 ( 달러 / 배럴 ) I II III IV 실적치 215 년 12 월전망 216 년 2 월전망 주 : 216 년 1/ 분기실적치 (Brent) 는 1~2 월평균임. 15

19 국제금융시장 : 미국의금리인상및브렉시트관련우려가확대되면서금융시장의변동성은여전히높은수준에머물러있음. 금융시장의불안이지속됨에따라선진국국채와엔화등안전자산에대한선호가강화되고주요변동성지수도급등하는모습 주요국의장기금리 엔화및유로화환율 3. (%) 미국독일일본 엔 / 달러 ( 좌 ) 유로 / 달러 ( 우 ).8 다만, 월중반이후불확실성이부분적으로완화되면서일부신흥국환율이하락하고 주요국주가지수도상승한것으로나타남. VIX 지수와신흥시장채권지수 주요국의주가변화율 (%) 월말대비 2 월 12 일기준 2 월 12 일대비 2 월말기준 VIX( 좌 ) 신흥시장채권지수 ( 우 ) 중국 인도네시아 미국 타이완 태국 한국 터키 일본 브라질 16

20 Summary and Assessment Korea s major indicators exhibited continuing sluggishness, signalling a gradual deceleration in economic growth. Domestic demand showed a weakening in the overall improvement amid continued increases in certain indicators. Construction investment remained favorable mainly in the building construction sector. Facilities investment, however, continued to decline and leading indicators for investment exhibited a gradual weakness. Private consumption is showing a gradual moderation mainly in the sale of durable goods while the CCSI dropped below the baseline (1). Exports declined continuously due to slowing global growth. As a result, mining and manufacturing production and shipments have decelerated further. Exports decreased slower in February on increased workdays but exports per workday (adjusted for workday difference) posted a continuing sharp decrease. Mining and manufacturing production and shipments dropped in key items, and the inventory-to-shipments ratio stayed high, implying a continuing sluggishness in production. Korea s slowing growth is partially due to the faster-than-expected deterioration in external conditions combined with anticipated factor, a reactionary fall following the consumption stimulus measures terminated at the end of 215. All growth figures are on a year-on-year basis unless otherwise noted. This document is an English translation of the original Korean version; the Korean version takes precedence in case of any ambiguities or discrepancies. 17

21 Economic Activity: Mining and manufacturing production and shipments deteriorated further amid a moderate increase in services production, implying a gradual slowdown in economic activity. January's all industry production recorded a 1.8% growth, down from a month ago (2.6%), influenced by moderating production growth in most industries, including mining and manufacturing. Services production recorded a 3.% growth, down from a month ago (3.5%), influenced by decreased production in a few sectors, including arts, sports and recreation-related services. Mining and manufacturing production remained dull with a 1.9% growth, continuing the sluggishness of the previous month (-2.2%), as major sectors such as motor vehicles (-3.1%) and ICT (-2.9%) showed decreased production due to stagnating exports. The manufacturing capacity utilization rate stood at 72.6%, far below last year s average (76.2%), signalling sluggishness in overall manufacturing production. Mining and Manufacturing Production (3MA) and Service Production Index (3MA) (Year-on-Year % Change, 3MA) Mining and Manufacturing Production Index (3MA) Service Production Index (3MA) Manufacturing shipments decreased further mostly in exports and the inventory-to-shipments ratio seems to have rebounded as a result. Manufacturing shipments recorded a 3.9% growth, sharply down from a month ago (-1.7%) as domestic shipments turned to decrease (.% -1.%) and export shipments dropped further (-.2% -7.%). The manufacturing inventory-to-shipments ratio stood at 128.%, higher than a month ago (12.6%) mainly among motor vehicles and ICT. 18

22 Shipment Index (3MA) and Inventory-Shipment Ratio (Year-on-Year % Change, 3MA) (%) Shipment Index (left, 3MA) Inventory-Shipment Ratio (right) The cyclical component of the coincident composite index recorded 1.5, down from a month ago (1.7), influenced by continuing sluggishness in mining and manufacturing production and shipments. The cyclical component of the leading composite index recorded 12., down from a month ago (12.2), influenced by the decreases in the inventory cycle index and consumer expectation index. Cyclical Component of Composite Economic Indices 13 (Base=1) Cyclical Component of Coincident Index Cyclical Component of Leading Index 19

23 Consumption: Retail sales improved slightly on temporary factors but the consumption sentiment stayed stagnant, signalling weakening growth in private consumption. January s retail sales index recorded a growth of.5% despite the drop in passenger car sales, as non-durable goods sales soared temporarily. By item, non-durable and semi-durable goods expanded by 8.7% and.9%, respectively, owing to temporary factors, whereas durable goods decreased by 2.9% on falling passenger car sales (-6.7%). * The increase in non-durable good sales was largely due to the sharp rise in food and beverage sales in late-january 216 Lunar New Year holidays were earlier than in 215, and the increase in semi-durable goods sales was the result of the cold wave in January. In this context, these increases are deemed temporary. Services production recorded a 3.% growth, slightly down from a month ago (3.5%), while sectors closely related to private consumption grew at a relatively low rate. Wholesale & retail trade rose 3.1% in January mainly due to the base effect, while accommodation & food service activities and arts, sports & recreation-related services retreated.9% and 2.2%, respectively. February s composite consumer sentiment index (CCSI) recorded 98, down from a month ago (1), indicating a continuing weakness in the consumption sentiment. By component, prospective household income (-2p) and spending (-2p) led the decline in the CCSI. Retail Sales Index (3MA) and Composite Consumer Sentiment Index 8 (Year-on-Year % Change, 3MA) (Base=1) Retail Sales Index (left, 3MA) Composite Consumer Sentiment Index (right) 2

24 Facilities Investment: Facilities investment contracted gradually due to aggravating sluggishness in machinery investment. The manufacturing capacity utilization rate also remained on a consistent decline; facilities investment demand is not likely to improve in the short-term. January s equipment investment index decreased 5.5%, a larger drop than last month (-1.3%). By category, transport equipment rose 16.% due to the temporary increase in aircraft imports but machinery which holds a large proportion posted a larger decrease (-13.2%). * Machinery (YoY, %): (Nov. 215) -1.3 (Dec.) (Jan. 216) Equipment investment index switched to a 6.% decrease from last month s increase (3.7%). Leading indicators related to facilities investment displayed sluggishness, implying that it is likely to remain slack. Domestic machinery shipments remained sluggish with a 9.5% drop while the machinery import value (advanced estimate for Feb. 1~2) retreated by 2.% in February. An improvement in machinery is deemed unlikely in February. Domestic machinery orders received fell 16.1% with decreases in both public and private sectors. Manufacturing capacity utilization rate dropped to 72.6% amid the continued stagnation in exports, indicating that an improvement in facilities investment in the short-term is unlikely. Equipment Investment Index (3MA) Manufacturing Average Capacity Utilization Rate 3 (Year-on-Year % Change, 3MA) (%) Equipment Investment Index (left, 3MA) Manufacturing Average Capacity Utilization Rate (right) 21

25 Construction Investment: January s value of construction completed maintained a growth momentum mainly in building construction. Apartment transactions stayed at a relatively high level. The value of construction completed (constant) recorded a relatively high growth of 1.3%, continuing last month s trend (12.8%), as the building construction sector exhibited increased growth. By sector, civil engineering reversed the increase a month earlier (3.5%) to a 7.8% decrease, but building construction recorded a relatively high 2.9% growth, continuing last month s trend (19.9%). Construction orders received swung to a 6.% growth mainly due to the base effect in building construction. By sector, civil engineering climbed 1.%, continuing last month s trend (53.%), but building construction recorded a low growth of 19.7% due to the base effect from the high growth (73.5%) a year ago. Meanwhile, apartment transactions slid on the base effect, but they are still higher than the average from 21 onwards, implying relatively stable conditions. Apartment transactions dropped by 16.7% to record 7,755 lots, sharply down from the growth (8,97 lots, 22.3%) a year ago, but have been far above the average (62,693 lots) from 21 onwards. Value of Construction Completed (3MA) and Construction Ordered Received (3MA) (Year-on-Year % Change, 3MA) Value of Construction Completed (left, 3MA) Construction Orders Received (right, 3MA) 22

26 Exports: The decrease in exports eased in February due to increased workdays, but the downward trend persists on slowing global growth including China s. February s exports recorded a 12.2% growth, a lower drop than last month (-18.8%), due to increased workdays, but exports per workday continued to decline fast, signalling a continued slump. Exports per workday (adjusted for workday difference) exhibited a sharp decrease ( 16.2%) as last month (-15.6%), suggesting little improvement in exports. By item, continued decreases were observed in most key items: petroleum products (-15.%), semiconductors (-12.6%) and motor vehicles & parts (-6.7%). By region, the downward momentum continued to China (-12.9%) and Japan (-15.%). Meanwhile, amid slowing global growth, leading indicators remained below the baseline, implying a deterioration in overall export conditions. Imports declined significantly ( 1.6%) as last month (-2.%) on continued low oil prices, Oil imports continued to recede (-3.6%) on the 1.1% drop in unit prices. Trade balance posted a surplus of $7. billion, similar to a year ago ($7.7 billion). Average Exports per Day (3MA) and Composite Leading Index for OECD+NME 8 (Year-on-Year % Change, 3MA) (Base=1) Average Exports per Day (left) OECD+NME Composite Leading Index (right) Note: NMEs are Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, Russia and South Africa

27 January s Balance of Payments The current account recorded a surplus of $7.6 billion, up from a year ago ($6.26 billion) as the goods account surplus expanded. The goods account recorded a surplus of $8.11 billion, up from a year ago ($6.31 billion), as goods imports continued to trend downwad (-23.1%) due to falling import prices resulting from low oil prices. The services account recorded a deficit of $1.9 billion, similar to a year ago ($1.99 billion), due to the improvement in royalties and travel account. Meanwhile, the seasonally adjusted current account recorded a surplus of $11.27 billion, sharply up from last month ($8.59 billion). Seasonally Adjusted Current Account (3MA) and Terms of Trade (3MA) 1 (Hundred Million US Dollars, 3MA) (Year-on-Year % Change, 3MA) S.A. Current Account (left, 3MA) Terms of Trade (right, 3MA) The financial account recorded a decrease of $6.8 billion in net foreign assets, down from a month ago ($7.86 billion). Direct investment recorded a decrease of $.7 billion, a reversal from last month ($1.2 billion), on the decrease in outbound investment. Portfolio investment recorded a smaller increase of $.65 billion than a month ago ($6. billion) on the decrease in outbound securities investment. Other investments posted a smaller increase ($.3 billion) than a month ago ($1.5 billion) due to declining cash and savings reserves. 2

28 Labor Market: Employment growth was maintained at the 3,-level mainly in manufacturing and regular workers while wage growth continued the recent increase. January s employment exhibited a lower increase than last month (95,, 2.%) as temporary factors waned but continued on an upward path (339, YoY, 1.%). By sector, manufacturing demonstrated a growth (15,, 3.3%) similar to last month (16,, 3.3%), but with favorable weather conditions gone, wholesale & retail trade (-125,, 3.2%) and agriculture, forestry & fisheries (-7,, 7.6%) exhibited reduced growth. Seasonally-adjusted rates of employment (aged 15~29) and labor force participation recorded 66.% and 62.7%, respectively, both down by.2%p from a month ago. The seasonally-adjusted unemployment rate stayed low at 3.5%, unchanged from a month ago. The nominal regular wage (in a workplace of more than 5 full-time employees) rose.3% in December, gaining momentum gradually. (Aug.) 3.2% (Sep.) 3.1% (Oct.) 3.5% (Nov.) 3.8% (Dec.).3% Changes in the Number of Employed Persons, Seasonally Adjusted Labor Force Participation Rate and Employment Rate for Persons Aged 15~6 1, (Year-on-Year Change, Thousand Persons) (%) Changes in Employed Persons (left) S.A. Labor Force Participation Rate (right) S.A. Employment Rate for Persons Aged 15~6 (right)

29 CPI: February s headline CPI inflation advanced 1.3%, up from a month ago (.8%), mainly in agricultural, livestock, and fishery products. Goods prices rose.1%, up from a month ago ( 1.1%), as the prices of agricultural, livestock, and fishery products rose amid a smaller drop in petroleum product prices. Prices of agricultural, livestock, and fishery products showed a higher increase of 5.6% than a month ago (2.%) mainly in agricultural product prices (2.% 7.2%) Industrial goods prices showed a higher increase of.2% than the.8% a month ago due to the reduced drop in petroleum product prices (-1.3% -8.%). Utility fees (water, electricity and gas) rose 8.%, similar to a month ago (-8.1%). Services prices rose 2.% on the price inflation in personal services. Core inflation, excluding agricultural and petroleum products, stood at 1.8%, an inch up from a month ago (1.7%), while that excluding food and energy stood at 2.%, higher than a month ago (1.9%). Prices of apartment purchases and joense rose -.% and.2% MoM, down from a month ago (.1% and.2%, respectively). CPI Change and Contribution by Sector 3 Agricultural Service CPI (Year-on-Year, %, %p) Manufacturing Electricity, water, and gas Core CPI Note: The sum of sector-b-sector contributions are rounded off to the nearest integer, which may be inconsistent with the growth rate of the total index. 26

30 Financial Market: The domestic financial market exhibited slightly unstable signs such as the won s devaluation and growing volatility in the stock market in the midst of growing external uncertainties. As of end-february, the dollar/won exchange rate advanced on mounting uncertainties, including the US interest rate hike and Brexit, to record 1,235. won, up by 27. won from a month ago (1,28. won). The yen/won exchange rate recorded 1,85.8 won per 1 yen, sharply up by 68.7 won from a month ago (1,17.1 won), despite Japan s adoption of a minus interest rate, as the preference for safe assets grows stronger. The KOSPI closed at 1,916.7, bouncing back close to last month s level (1,912.1), on an improving investment sentiment after volatility ran high due to external uncertainties early in the month. Government bonds yields (3-year maturity) recorded 1.5%, down by 11bp from a month earlier (1.56%), influenced by expectations over a cut in the base rate. Accordingly, the term spread (between call rate and 3-year government bond yield) swung to 7bp from 6bp a month ago. Bank loans to households expanded at a lower rate than a month ago due to seasonal reasons, but still higher than a year ago. Bank loans to households (change, trillion won): (Jan. 13) -1.6 (Jan. 1) -2.2 (Jan. 15) 1. (Jan. 16) 2.2 Exchange Rate and Stock Price Index 1,3 (won) 2,2 1,2 2,1 1,1 1, 2, 9 1, KRW/USD (left) KRW/1JPY (left) KOSPI (right) 1,8 27

31 World Economy: The global economy slowed mainly in emerging economies, while downside risks remain elevated, including concerns over the US rate hike, Brexit and continuing low oil prices. The US and Eurozone maintained a moderate recovery whereas Japan contracted further due to less-than-expected exports. 9 GDP Growth Rates in the US, Eurozone, and Japan (QoQ annualized rate, %) 12 Retail Sales in the US, Eurozone, and Japan (Year-on-Year % Change) I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV US Eurozone Japan US Eurozone Japan Emerging economies exhibited continuing sluggishness in both domestic demand and exports, and raw material exporting countries such as Brazil and Russia, in particular, showed signs of a prolonged economic slump. 9 GDP Growth Rates in Emerging Markets (Year-on-Year % Change) 215 3/ 2 Exports in China, Brazil, and Russia (Year-on-Year % Change, 3MA) / Brazil Russia Taiwan South Africa Mexico Indonesia China India China Brazil Russia Note: Q2 of 215 for Brazil, 3Q of 215 for Russia. 28

32 The US showed improvements in consumption and labor market indicators while continued declines in the production and sentiment indexes Its Q growth rate was revised up to 1.% (annualized QoQ), and January witnessed increases in household consumption (2.9%) and Core PCE (1.7%). US Industrial Production and Personal Consumption Expenditures (Year-on-Year % Change) (%) US Unemployment Rate and Core PCE Price (Year-on-Year % Change) Industrial Production (left) Personal Consumption (right) Unemployment Rate (left) Core PCE Price (right) The Eurozone posted a decline in the sentiment index on growing credit risks in financial institutions and looming Brexit woes, but a modest recovery pace was sustained mainly in private consumption. December s industrial production slid 1.3%, but consumption maintained a growth at 1.%. Accordingly, its Q growth was recorded at.3%, unchanged from a quarter ago GDP Growth Rates in Eurozone (Quarter-on-Quarter % Change) 215 3/ 215 / Industrial Production and Manufacturing PMI in Eurozone (Year-on-Year % Change) (Base=5) Greece Finland Italy France Portugal Eurozone Netherlands Germany UK Spain Hungary Industrial Production (left) Manufacturing PMI (right) 29

33 Japan s Q growth retreated to.% QoQ on shrinking household consumption, and the continued contraction in consumption and exports have exacerbated concerns over overall economic activities. January consumption slid.1% on a slump in fuel sales, and its exports, particularly to emerging economies including China, fell fast (-12.9%), continuing last month s trend. 2 Japan's GDP and Degree of Contribution by Sector (Quarter-on-Quarter, %, %p) 3 Japan's Exports and Imports (Year-on-Year % Change) I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV Net Exports Domestic Demand GDP Exports Imports China exhibited lower-than-expected performance in major leading indicators and sharp decreases in both imports and exports, pointing to a continued slowdown in the real economy. January s export growth fell to 11.5% mainly to advanced economies, and its imports receded by 18.8% on falling oil prices and weakening domestic demand. 6 China's Exports and Imports (Year-on-Year % Change) China's Manufacturing PMI and Leading Indicator (Base=5) 52 (Base=1) Exports Imports Manufacturing PMI (left) Leading Indicator (right) 3

34 In February, oil prices picked up again after mid-month as oil producers agreed on an oil output freeze and worries were raised over the US cutting output. Meanwhile, major commodity price indices such as the CRB index remained low on the sharp drop in grain prices. 6 Prices of Key Raw Materials (Month-on-Month % Change) CRB and Reuters Indices of Commodity Prices 32 2, ,6 2 2, , Wheat Corn Nickel Copper Aluminum Dubai 16 2, CRB (left) Reuters (right) Note: As of the end-february Note: Reuters as of Feb. 26 th In 216, oil prices are projected to record a mid- to high $3-range per barrel on an annual average basis, a drop of approx. 3% from a year ago. Oil prices are expected to rise moderately due to the reduced supply, but another possibility is that they will remain at a relatively low level in the long run. 216 Projections for Oil Prices (EIA) 12 ($/Barrel) I II III IV Actual Oil Price Forecast in the Dec. 215 Forecast in the Feb. 216 Note: Actuals (Brent) of Q1 of 216 are the average from January to February. 31

35 Global Financial Markets: Volatility is still high, influenced by growing concerns over the US interest rate hike and Brexit. Global financial markets remained unstable, causing a stronger preference for safer assets including advanced nation s treasury bonds and the yen, while key volatility indices soared. 3. Long-Term Interest Rates in the US, Germany, and Japan (%) 13 Exchange Rates of Yen and Euro US Germany Japan /US$ (left) /US$ (right).8 However, some uncertainties were eased after mid-month, contributing to a lowering of the FX rate in a few emerging economies and raising stock prices in major countries. 5 VIX and Emerging Market Bond Index 56 1 Stock Prices in Major Countries (%) End-Jan. vs. Feb. 12th Feb. 12th vs. End-Feb VIX (left) EMBI (right) China Indonesia US Taiwan Thailand Korea Turkey Japan Brazil 32

36 경제동향주요지표 Major Indicators of the Korean Economy

37 국내총생산및국내총소득 (21 년불변가격 ) 민간소비및고정투자 (21 년불변가격 ) GDP and GDI Private Consumption and Fixed Investment (at 21 Constant Prices) (at 21 Constant Prices) I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV 1 I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV 국내총생산 (GDP) 국내총소득 (GDI) 민간소비 (Private Consumption) 설비투자 (Facilities Investment) 건설투자 (Construction Investment) 상품및서비스수출 (21 년불변가격 ) 상품및서비스수입 (21 년불변가격 ) Exports of Goods and Services Imports of Goods and Services (at 21 Constant Prices) (at 21 Constant Prices) I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV -5 I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV 상품수출 (Exports of Goods) 서비스수출 (Exports of Services) 상품수입 (Imports of Goods) 서비스수입 (Imports of Services) 3

38 1. 국내총생산 (21 년불변가격 ) Gross Domestic Product (at 21 Constant Prices) GDP 민간소비 Private Consumption 설비투자 Facilities Investment 국내총생산 건설투자 Construction Investment 총수출 Total Export 총수입 Total Import ( 조원, Trillion Won) 국내총소득 Gross Domestic Income 29 1, , , , , , , , , , p 1, , p 1, , Ⅳ Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ Ⅰ p Ⅱ p Ⅲ p Ⅳ p Ⅰ p Ⅱ p Ⅲ p Ⅳ p 전년동기대비증가율 (%) Percentage Change from the Same Period of the Previous Year p p Ⅳ 2.2 (.6) 2.7 (.3) -3.8 (-.2) -6. (-1.7) 5.8 (.8) 1.7 (-1.3) 2.7 (.5) 213 Ⅰ 2.1 (.6) 1.6 (-.1) ( 2.7) 1.3 ( 5.3) 5.6 (.2) -.3 (.7) 2.9 (.6) Ⅱ 2.7 ( 1.) 1.9 (.5) -3.2 (.9) 8.9 (.6) 6. ( 2.3) 1.2 ( 1.5).7 ( 1.8) Ⅲ 3.2 (.9) 1.9 ( 1.1) 2.3 ( 3.5) 7. (-.8) 2.5 (-.7).9 (.).2 ( 1.1) Ⅳ 3.5 (.9) 2.2 (.6) 11.6 (.2) 3.5 (-.8) 3.1 ( 1.3) 5. ( 2.9).3 (.7) 21 Ⅰ p 3.9 ( 1.1) 2.6 (.) 7.2 (-1.).1 ( 5.3).2 ( 1.) 3.2 (-1.1).8 ( 1.2) Ⅱ p 3. (.5) 1.7 (-.) 7.7 ( 1.3).2 (.5) 3. ( 1.3) 2.9 ( 1.2) 3.7 (.7) Ⅲ p 3.3 (.8) 1.5 (.8).2 (.2) 2.3 (.9) 2.2 (-1.7) 2.3 (-.7) 3. (.3) Ⅳ p 2.7 (.3) 1. (.5).2 (.) -1.5 (-7.8) 1. (.).1 (.7) 3.6 ( 1.) 215 Ⅰ p 2.5 (.8) 1.5 (.6) 5.8 (.2).6 ( 7.).1 (.1) 1.9 (.6) 6.2 ( 3.6) Ⅱ p 2.2 (.3) 1.7 (-.2) 5. (.5) 1.6 ( 1.6) -.8 (.3) 1. (.9) 6. ( 1.) Ⅲ p 2.7 ( 1.3) 2.1 ( 1.2) 6.6 ( 1.8) 5.7 ( 5.).3 (-.6) 3.2 ( 1.1) 7. (.9) Ⅳ p 3. (.6) 3.2 ( 1.5) 3.5 (.9) 7.3 (-6.1) 1.9 ( 2.1) 5.5 ( 2.8) 6.1 (.7) 주 : 1) p 는잠정치. 2) ( ) 는계절조정전기대비증가율. 자료 : 한국은행. Note: 1) p is preliminary. 2) Figures in parentheses indicate percentage changes from the previous period (S.A.). Source: Bank of Korea. 35

39 생산지수 Production Indices 출하지수및재고지수 Shipment and Inventory Indices 전산업생산지수 (All Industry Prod. Index) 광공업생산지수 (Mining and Manufac. Prod. Index) 서비스업생산지수 (Service Prod. Index) 출하지수 (Shipment Index) 재고지수 (Inventory Index) 경기종합지수순환변동치 Cyclical Component of Economic Indices 한국은행 BSI 제조업실적및전망 (S.A.) BOK Business Survey Index (Seasonally Adjusted) 13 ( 기준 =1 / Base=1) 85 ( 기준 =1 / Base=1) 동행지수순환변동치 (Composite Coincident Index) 선행지수순환변동치 (Composite Leading Index) BSI 제조업실적 (BSI Manufac. Tendency) BSI 제조업전망 (BSI Manufac. Future Tendency) 36

40 2. 경기 Economic Activity 전산업 2) All Industry Production 생산지수 Production Indices 광공업 3) Mining and Manufacturing Production 서비스업 Service Production 생산자제품 Producer's Product 출하 Shipment 재고 Inventory 경기종합지수순환변동치 1) Cyclical Component of Economic Indices 동행지수 Composite Coincident Index 선행지수 Composite Leading Index 한국은행 BSI 1) ( 제조업, 계절조정 ) BOK BSI (Manufacturing, S.A.) 실적 Tendency 전망 Future Tendency 제조업평균가동률 Capacity Utilization Rate (%) p Ⅱ 1. (.).5 (-.5) 1.7 (.). (-.2) 7.6 (-.) Ⅲ 1.8 (.3) 1.2 (-.2) 2.7 (.8).6 (-.6) 3.6 (.9) Ⅳ.9 (.1) -1.5 (-.8) 2.8 (.8) -.8 (.1) -2.5 (-1.6) Ⅰ 1. (.2) -1.1 (-.3) 2.7 (.5) -.8 (-.7) 2. ( 3.1) Ⅱ 1. (.2) -1.3 (-.5) 2.7 (.5) -1.1 (-.).5 ( 2.3) Ⅲ 2.1 ( 1.6) -.1 ( 1.7) 2.9 ( 1.2).8 ( 2.1) 6.7 ( 2.6) Ⅳ p 2.3 (.) -.2 (-.9) 3.2 ( 1.).2 (-.5) 2.9 (-5.3) (.1).2 ( 1.1) 3.1 (-.) 2.6 (-.5) 6.9 ( 1.6) (-.3) -2.6 (-2.9) 2.3 (.5) -2.8 ( (-1.1) (-1.) 2.1 (-.3) 2.9 (-.) 2. (-.5) 3.6 (.) (.7) -2.8 (-1.1) 2.8 (.8) -3. (-1.3) 2.9 (.3) (.1) -3.1 (.9) 2.3 (.) -1.6 ( 2.5).1 (-1.3) ( 1.) 1. ( 2.7) 3.5 (.) 2.2 ( 1.9) -2.5 (-.6) (-1.6) 1.5 (-3.5) 2. (-.7) 2.5 (-3.) -.2 (.3) ( 1.9) -5.1 ( 1.9) 2.7 ( 1.3) -5. (.8) 2. ( 2.3) (-.3).1 (-.2) 3.1 (.1). (.) 2. (.5) (-.1) -2.2 (-.7).3 (.7) -1.5 (-.7) 2.3 ( 1.7) (-.5) -3. (-1.2) 2.3 (-.6) -3. (-.8) 2.6 (-1.3) (.3) 1.6 ( 1.9) 1.5 (-1.) 1.1 ( 1.).5 ( 1.8) (.5) -3. (-.7) 2.6 ( 1.5) -1.9 (-.2) 3. (.3) ( 1.2).2 ( 1.9) 2.3 (.5).2 ( 1.9) 5.3 (.7) ( 1.) 3. (.9) 3.8 (.5).1 ( 1.7) 6.7 ( 1.6) (-.8) 2.1 (-1.3) 3. (.2) 3.3 (-1.2).7 (-1.) p 2. (-.5) -.2 (-1.5) 3. (.) -.8 (-2.1) 5. (-1.) p 2.6 ( 1.3) -2.2 (.5) 3.5 (.9) -1.7 ( 1.) 2.9 (-3.) p 1.8 (-1.2) -1.9 (-1.8 ) 3. (-.9) -3.9 (-.).5 ( 2.2) 주 : 1) 기준치 =1. 2) 213~1 년연간지수는농림어업포함. 3) 광업, 제조업, 전기 가스업을포함. ) p 는잠정치 ( 한국은행 BSI 제외 ). 5) ( ) 는계절조정전기대비증가율. 자료 : 통계청 ; 한국은행. Note: 1) Base=1. 2) Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheris sectors is included for annual index in 213~21. 3) Mining & Manufacturing, Electricity & Gas Industry. ) p is preliminary (BOK BSI are excluded). 5) Figures in parentheses indicate percentage changes from the previous period (S.A.). Source: Statistics Korea; Bank of Korea. 37

41 민간소비 ( 소비재 ) 와소매판매액지수 Private Consumption(Consumer Goods) and Retail Sales Index 유형별소매판매액지수 Retail Sales Index by Group of Goods 민간소비 ( 소비재 ) (Private Comsumption (Consumer Goods)) 소매판매액지수 (Retail Sales Index) 내구재 (Durable) 준내구재 (Qusai-durable) 비내구재 (Nondurable) 소비재출하지수및소비재수입액 Consumer Goods Shipment Index and Consumer Goods Import 소비자동향조사 Consumer Survey ( 기준치 =1 / Base=1) 소비재출하 (Consumer Goods Shipment Index) 소비재수입 (Consumer Goods Import) 소비자심리지수 (Composite Comsumer Sentiment Index) 소비지출전망 (Prospective Household Spending) 38

42 3. 소비 Consumption Retail Sales Index 소매판매액 유형별지수 by Group of Goods 비내구재준내구재 Nondurable Quasidurable 내구재 Durable 승용차 Automobile 소비재출하 Consumer Goods Shipment Index 소비재수입 1) Consumer Goods Import 소비자동향조사 2) Consumer Survey 소비자 현재 향후 소비지출 심리지수 경기판단 경기전망 전망 Composite Current Prospective Prospective Consumer Domestic Domestic Household Economic Economic Spending Conditions Conditions Sentiment Index (CCSI) p Ⅳ 2.7 (.) Ⅰ.3 (-1.) Ⅱ 1.1 (.8) Ⅲ.5 (.8) Ⅳ 1.1 (.) Ⅰ 2.6 (.8) Ⅱ 1.2 (-.5) Ⅲ 2. ( 1.3) Ⅳ 2. (.3) Ⅰ 2.1 ( 1.) Ⅱ 3. (.7) Ⅲ 3.5 ( 1.3) Ⅳ p 6.2 ( 3.) ( 1.7) (.1) ( 1.) (-.2) (-2.) ( 1.8) ( 1.9) (-.3) ( 2.8) (-.3) p 3.9 (.) p.5 (-1.) p 주 : 1) 소비재수입액을전월의소비재수입물가지수로실질화. 2) 기준치 =1. 3) p 는잠정치 ( 단, 소비자동향조사는제외 ). ) ( ) 는계절조정전기대비증가율. 자료 : 한국은행 ; 통계청 ; 한국무역협회. Note: 1) Nominal consumer goods import deflated by import price index (consumer goods) of the previous month. 2) Base=1. 3) p is preliminary (Consumer survey is excluded). ) Figures in parentheses indicate percentage changes from the previous period (S.A.). Source: Bank of Korea; Statistics Korea; Korea International Trade Association. 39

43 형태별설비투자지수 Equipment Investment Index by Type 설비투자지수와기계류내수출하지수 Equipment Investment Index and Domestic Machinery Shipment Index 기계류 (Machinery) 운송장비 (Transport Equipment) 설비투자지수 (Equipment Investment Index) 기계류내수출하지수 (Domestic Machinery Shipment Index) 내수용자본재수입액과기계류수입액 Import of Capital Good for Domestic Demand and Machinery Import 국내기계수주 Domestic Machinery Orders Received 내수용자본재수입액 (Import of Capital Good for Domestic Demand) 기계류수입액 (Machinery Import) 총수주액 (Total) 민간수주액 (Private)

44 . 설비투자 Equipment Investment Equipment Investment Index 설비투자지수 기계류 Machinery 운송장비 Transport Equipment 기계류내수출하지수 1) Domestic Machinery Shipment Index 기계류수입액 2) Machinery Import Domestic Machinery Orders Received ( 십억원, Billion Won, 21=1) 국내기계수주 3) 공공 Public 민간 Private ,193 26,87 5,12 21, p ,1 25,51 1,921 23,62 21 Ⅳ ,93 6, , Ⅰ ,57 6,3 5 6,25 Ⅱ ,278 7, ,52 Ⅲ ,839 5, ,197 Ⅳ p ,751 6, , ,161 2, , ,228 1, , ,159 2, , ,723 2, , ,533 2, , ,21 2, , ,212 2, 133 1, ,25 1, , ,373 1, , ,688 2,8 98 1, ,151 1, , p ,912 2, , p ,978 1,9 69 1,871 전년동기대비증가율 (%) Percentage Change from the Same Period of the Previous Year p Ⅳ 5.5 ( 8.) (-26.6) Ⅰ 9.2 ( -.2) ( -.1) Ⅱ.5 ( -2.2) ( 8.6) Ⅲ 1.2 ( 5.2) (-1.) Ⅳ p 1.6 ( -1.2) ( 9.2) ( -.2) ( 25.2) ( -.6) (-15.7) ( 2.5) ( 6.3) ( -3.6) ( 32.8) ( -1.) (-2.2) ( 3.2) ( -2.2) ( 1.1) (.1) ( 3.) ( -6.9) ( 1.) ( 5.8) ( -.9) ( 6.) ( -5.2) ( -8.1) p -1.3 ( 3.7) ( 22.8) p -5.5 (-6.) (-22.8) 주 : 1) 선박제외. 2) 백만달러. 3) 선박제외, 21 년불변가격. ) p 는잠정치 ( 단, 기계류수입액은제외 ). 5) ( ) 는계절조정전기대비증가율. 자료 : 한국은행 ; 통계청 ; 무역협회. Note: 1) Vessels are excluded. 2) Million US Dollars. 3) Vessels are excluded, at 21 Constant Prices. ) p is preliminary (Machinery Import is excluded). 5) Figures in parentheses indicate percentage changes from the previous period (S.A.). Source: Bank of Korea; Statistics Korea; International Trade Association. 1

45 건설기성액 ( 불변가격 ) 및국내건설수주공사종류별건설기성액 ( 불변가격 ) Construction Completed (at 21 Constant Prices) Value of Construction Completed by Type and Construction Orders Received (at 21 Constant Prices) 건설기성액 ( 좌 ) / Value of Cons. Completed (left) 국내건설수주 ( 우 ) / Cons. Orders Received (right) 건축 (Building) 토목 (Civil Engineering) 건축허가면적및건축착공면적 Building Construction Permits and Building Construction Initiated 주택건설및미분양주택수 Housing Construction and Number of Unsold Houses 1 16 ( 전년동기비, % / Y-on-Y %) ( 전월비, 호 / M-on-M Unit) 건축허가면적 (Building Construction Permits) 건축착공면적 (Building Construction Initiated) 주택건설 ( 좌 ) / Housing Construction (left) 미분양 ( 우 ) / Num. of Unsold Houses (right) 2

46 5. 건설투자 Construction Investment 건설기성액 1) Value of Construction Completed 합계 Total 공사종류별 By Type 건축 Building 토목 Civil Engineering 국내건설수주 Construction Orders Received 건축허가면적 Building Construction Permits ( 십억원, 천m2, 호, Billion Won, Thousand m2, Unit) 건축착공면적 Building Construction Initiated 주택건설 Housing Construction 미분양주택수 3) Number of Unsold Houses 21 89,67 55,9 33,73 9,66 11,37 111, ,251, p 91,722 59,287 32,3 13, ,8 152, ,328 61, Ⅳ 2,58 1,779 9,85 26,6 36,883 32,19 163,923, Ⅰ 19,8 12,361 7,87 25,17 33,938 28,38 118,772 28,897 Ⅱ 22,926 1,565 8,362 35,21 6,575 2,61 181,38 3,68 Ⅲ 22,788 15,15 7,638 36, 57,537 36,68 2,6 32,52 Ⅳ p 26,56 17,211 9,38 37,228 51,79 5,52 225,188 61, ,217 3,917 2,31 7,515 9,619 7,573 33,271 36, ,113 3,97 2,26 5,35 9,591 7,23 33,31 33, ,117,538 2,579 12,67 1,728 13,222 52,2 28,897 7,62,527 2,535 9,55 15,816 13,79 51,35 28,93 5 7,115,713 2,2 12,639 1,732 13,71 56,861 28,12 6 8,79 5,325 3,25 13,516 16,27 15,79 73,12 3,68 7 7,28,936 2,312 8,685 23, 12,217 82,836 33, ,38,853 2,55 8,659 16,651 13,25 69,269 31, ,231 5,361 2,87 19,97 17,81 11,6 87,955 32,52 1 7,812 5,325 2,87 1,378 17,159 18,131 6,2 32, p 8,19 5,65 2,55 13,226 16,13 15,96 62,823 9,72 12 p 1,729 6,21,38 13,623 18,51 11,12 98,165 61, p 6,856,73 2,122 7,37 12,199 6,938 7,536 6,66 전년동기대비증가율 (%) Percentage Change from the Same Period of the Previous Year , p , Ⅳ -5.8 (-2.6) (-27.9) , Ⅰ -1.7 (.1) ( 7.) ,82 Ⅱ -3.8 (-2.1) ( 11.6) ,171 Ⅲ 6.2 ( 6.) ( 21.3) ,5 Ⅳ p 8. (.) (-26.6) , ( 3.8) ( 35.1) ,39 2. ( 3.7) (-17.) , (-5.7) ( 6.) , (-1.8) (-21.6) ( 1.9) ( 33.) ( 3.3) (-2.5) , (-.3) ( -.2) ( 3.5) ( 16.7) , (.) ( 59.9) (-5.7) (-6.9) p 5.8 (-.5) ( 19.7) ,53 12 p 12.8 ( 7.7) (-33.8) , p 1.3 ( 1.3) ( 16.8) 주 : 1) 21 년불변가격. 2) p 는잠정치. 3) 전기대비증감. ) ( ) 는계절조정전기대비증가율. 자료 : 통계청 ; 국토교통부. Note: 1) At 21 Constant Prices. 2) p is preliminary. 3) Month-on-month number changes. ) Figures in parentheses indicate percentage changes from the previous period (S.A.). Source: Statistics Korea; Ministry of Land Infrastructure and Transport. 3

47 상품수출및수입 Commodity Exports and Commodity Imports 품목별수출 Exports by Item 수출 (Commodity Exports) 수입 (Commodity Imports) ICT (ICT) 자동차및부품 (Automobiles & Parts) 석유류 (Petrochemicals & Petroleum Products) 일평균수출및수입액 Average Exports and Imports per Day 수출입가격및교역조건 Export and Import Prices, and Terms of Trade 22 ( 억달러 / Hundred Million US Dollars) 일평균수출액 (Average Exports per Day) 일평균수입액 (Average Imports per Day) 수출가격 (Export Price) 수입가격 (Import Price) 순상품교역조건 (Terms of Trade)