Contents 주요경제지표 Major Economic Indicators 요약및평가 Summary and Assessment 경제동향주요지표 Major Indicators of the Korean Economy 1. 국내총생산(21 년불변가격) 35 Gross Dom

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1 총괄국내총생산경기소비설비투자건설투자대외거래노동시장물가금융시장재정세계경제 김성태 김성태이우열정대희김동영권규호한일수권규호한일수송인호송보라정규철이유진박윤수박소현정대희원선재김지섭양유진김성태이우열이상규신형섭구희일 본자료는 KDI 홈페이지를통해서도보실수있습니다.

2 Contents 주요경제지표 Major Economic Indicators 요약및평가 Summary and Assessment 경제동향주요지표 Major Indicators of the Korean Economy 1. 국내총생산(21 년불변가격) 35 Gross Domestic Product (at 21 Constant Prices) 2. 경기 37 Economic Activity 3. 소비 39 Consumption. 설비투자 1 Equipment Investment 5. 건설투자 3 Construction Investment 6-1. 수출, 수입및교역조건 5 Exports, Imports and Terms of Trade 6-2. 경상수지및금융계정 7 Current Account and Financial Account 7. 고용및임금 9 Employment and Wage 8. 물가 51 Price Indices 9-1. 금융시장 (I) 53 Financial Market (I) 9-2. 금융시장 (II) 55 Financial Market (II) 1-1. 세계경제동향 (I) 57 Major Indicators of the World Economy (I) 1-2. 세계경제동향 (II) 59 Major Indicators of the World Economy (II)

3 주요경제지표 Major Economic Indicators ( 전년동기대비증가율, % / Year-on-Year % Change) Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ Ⅰ 3 5 전산업생산 All Industry Production 광공업생산 Industrial Production 서비스업생산 Service Production 소매판매액 Retail Sales Index 설비투자지수 Equipment Investment Index 건설기성액 ( 불변 ) Value of Construction Completed (Constant Price) 수출 ( 통관 ) Exports (f.o.b.) 수입 ( 통관 ) Imports (c.i.f.) 무역수지 ( 십억달러 ) Balance of Trade (Billion US Dollars) 실업률 Unemployment Rate 취업자수 Number of Employed 소비자물가 Consumer Price 국고채 3-year Treasury Bonds 종합주가지수 KOSPI 원/ 달러환율 Won/Dollar Exchange Rate OECD 경기선행지수 OECD Composite Leading Indicator 유가 ( 두바이, 달러 / 배럴 ) Oil Prices (Dubai, US$/Barrel) ,916 1,961 2,7 1,963 1,961 1,996 1,996 1,99 1,983 1,99.2 1,172. 1,12.1 1,19.5 1,172. 1, , ,13.9 1, 주: 국고채수익률 종합주가지수 원/ 달러환율은기말기준, 유가( 두바이) 는기간평균기준임.

4 요약및평가 최근생산관련지표의부진이심화되면서경기전반이다소위축된것으로 판단됨. 수출감소세가지속되는가운데광공업생산및출하는조업일수감소등으로 부진이심화되면서생산활동전반이위축되어있는모습 수출은 5 월중감소폭이축소되었으나, 대외경기부진과교역량정체로인해수출 여건이빠르게개선되기는어려울전망 서비스업생산의증가세가점차완만해지고있으며, 광공업생산및출하는수출 부진이지속되는가운데조업일수도줄어들면서감소폭이확대 아울러제조업평균가동률도 있음을시사 71.% 까지하락하여생산활동전반이위축되어 다만, 내수관련지표는최근의흐름을유지하면서경기둔화를완충하고 있음. 민간소비는서비스소비가상대적으로부진한모습이나, 완만한증가세를유지하고있음. 내구재를중심으로비교적 설비투자가부진을지속하고있으나, 건설투자는건축부문을중심으로양호한흐름 을지속하면서내수전반을견인하고있음. 별도의언급이없을경우모든증가율은전년동월대비기준임. 1

5 경기 : 서비스업생산증가세가완만하게둔화되는가운데, 광공업생산및출하는부진이 심화되는등경기전반이개선되지못하고있음. 월중전산업생산은서비스업생산증가폭이축소되는가운데, 조업일수감소로광 공업생산의부진이심화되면서전월(2.%) 보다낮은전년동월대비.8% 증가 서비스업생산은금융및보험업, 도매및소매업의증가폭축소에주로기인하여전월 (2.6%) 보다낮은전년동월대비 2.1% 의증가율을기록 광공업생산은자동차, 통신및방송장비등을중심으로전월(-.6%) 보다감소폭이크게 확대된 2.8% 의증가율을기록하였으나, 이는조업일수감소( 작년대비 1 일) 에주로기 인한것으로판단됨. 한편, 제조업평균가동률은전월(73.7%) 보다하락한 71.% 를기록하여전반적인생산활 동이저조한수준에머물러있음을시사 광공업생산지수 (3MA) 및서비스업생산지수 (3MA) ( 전년동기대비, %, 3 개월이동평균 ) 광공업생산지수 (3MA) 서비스업생산지수 (3MA) 제조업출하는내수출하가부진하면서감소로전환되었으며, 하락하는모습 제조업재고율은소폭 제조업출하는수출출하 (-1.9% -2.%) 의부진이지속되고내수출하 (3.1% -1.7%) 가감소로전환되면서, 전월(.7%) 보다낮은전년동월대비 1.8% 의증가율을기록 한편, 제조업재고율( 재고/ 출하비율) 은반도체및부품, 석유정제등일부산업에서하락 하며전월(125.1%) 보다낮은 12.2% 를기록 2

6 출하지수(3MA) 와재고율 ( 전년동기대비, %, 3 개월이동평균 ) (%) 출하지수 ( 좌, 3MA) 재고율 ( 우 ) 한편, 동행지수순환변동치는전월과같은 1.를기록하며경기전반이개선되지 못하고있음을시사 한편, 선행지수순환변동치는기계류내수출하지수, 건설수주액등투자 개선되면서전월(12.) 보다소폭상승한 12.2를기록 관련선행지표들이 동행지수순환변동치와선행지수순환변동치 13 ( 기준 =1) 동행지수순환변동치 선행지수순환변동치 3

7 소비 : 소매판매가양호한흐름을지속하고있으나서비스소비는낮은수준에머물러 있어, 전반적인민간소비증가세는완만한것으로판단됨. 월중소매판매액지수는전월(5.7%) 에이어전년동월대비.2% 의양호한증가세를 지속 형태별로는승용차(1.5%) 를중심으로내구재가 7.9% 증가하고, 비내구재도전월 (3.7%) 에이어양호한증가세(3.1%) 를지속한반면, 준내구재는비교적낮은 1.9% 의 증가율을기록 서비스소비가미약한수준에머물러있는가운데, 서비스업생산도전월(2.6%) 보다 증가폭이축소된 2.1% 의증가율을기록하면서민간소비의개선을제약하고있음. 국민계정상서비스소비는 1/분기중전년동기대비.8% 의증가율을기록하며낮은증 가세를지속 * 서비스소비( 전년동기대비, %): ( 15.3/).2 (/) 1. ( 16.1/).8 서비스업생산은금융및보험업의증가세(1.2%) 가둔화되고부동산및임대업도감소로전환(-3.%) 한데주로기인하여증가폭이축소됨. 한편, 5 월중소비자심리지수 (99) 는전월(11) 에이어기준치(1) 부근에머물러 있어소비심리에큰변화가없는것으로판단됨. 소매판매액지수및소비자심리지수 ( 전년동기대비, %) ( 기준 =1) 소매판매액지수 ( 좌 ) 소비자심리지수 ( 우 ) 92

8 설비투자 : 설비투자지수가기계류를중심으로감소세를지속하는가운데선행지표도낮은수준에머물러있어설비투자의부진이당분간지속될것으로판단됨. 월중설비투자지수는전년동월대비 2.7% 감소하며부진을지속하고있음. 형태별로는운송장비가전월(6.7%) 보다증가폭이일시적으로확대되어 17.% 증가하였 으나, 비중이큰기계류는전월(-12.3%) 에이어비교적큰폭의감소세( 9.8%) 가지속 * 기계류( 전년동월대비, %): (1 월) (2 월) (3 월) ( 월) -9.8 계절조정전월대비로는전월(5.8%) 에이어 3.% 증가하였으나, 지난 1~2월의감소폭 (-6.5%, -7.1%) 을고려하면반등폭은제한적인것으로사료됨. 설비투자와관련이높은지표들도부진한모습을보이고있어설비투자가단기간내에 개선되기는쉽지않은것으로판단됨. 제조업평균가동률이지속적으로하락하는가운데 월중에는 71.% 의매우낮은수준을 기록 또한국내기계수주가 월중큰폭으로감소(-28.2%) 하였고, 5월중기계류수입액속보 치(5.1~5.2) 도 15.9% 감소하여, 기계류투자의부진이당분간지속될가능성을시사 설비투자지수 (3MA) 및제조업평균가동률 3 ( 전년동기대비, %, 3 개월이동평균 ) (%) 설비투자지수 ( 좌, 3MA) 제조업평균가동률 ( 우 ) 7 5

9 건설투자 : 건설투자는토목부문이개선되는가운데건축부문은높은증가세를지속하 면서양호한흐름을유지 건설기성은건축부문을중심으로증가세를지속하며전년동월대비 가율을기록 16.1% 의높은증 공종별로는건축부문이전년동월대비 23.% 의높은증가율을기록하였고, 토목부문은플 랜트부문이개선되면서 3.7% 증가 건설수주는건축부문이전월의감소에서증가로전환되면서전년동월대비 증가율을기록 18.% 의 건축부문이주택부문의실적증가에기인하여전년동월대비 32.2% 증가한반면, 토목부 문은철도 궤도, 기계설치부문의부진으로 2.9% 감소 한편, 미분양주택수가전월과비슷한수준을유지한가운데, 아파트매매거래량은 감소세를지속하고있음. 월중미분양주택수는수도권에서다소축소되었으나지방에서확대되면서전월 (53,85 호) 과유사한 53,816 호를기록하였고, 아파트매매거래량(5,88 호) 은전지역 에서감소하며최근 5 년간평균거래량(62,87 호) 을하회 건설기성액 (3MA) 과국내건설수주액 (3MA) 2 ( 전년동기대비, %, 3개월이동평균 ) 건설기성액 ( 좌, 3MA) 건설수주액 ( 우, 3MA) 6

10 수출 : 수출은감소폭이축소되었으나, 세계경기둔화및대외불확실성확대로인해 수출여건이빠르게개선되기는어려울것으로판단됨. 5 월중수출은전월(-11.2%) 보다감소폭이축소된전년동월대비 6.% 의증가율을 기록하였으나, 수출여건은개선되지못하는모습 품목별로석유제품(-27.2%), 선박(-16.6%), IT 관련제품(-1.2%), 자동차및부품 (-5.5%) 등대부분의주요품목에서감소세를지속 지역별로는미국(.7%) 수출이미국경기가완만하게회복되면서개선되었으나, 중국 (-9.1%), 일본(-12.%) 및 EU(-13.1%) 수출은부진을지속하고있음. 한편, 경기선행지수 (OECD 및주요신흥국) 가낮은수준(99.3) 에정체된가운데세계교역 량( 물량) 도 % 내외의증가세에머물러있으며미국금리인상, 브렉시트등대외불확실 성도확대되고있어, 수출여건이단기간에개선되기는어려울것으로사료 수입은주요에너지자원을제외한품목(-.3%) 의부진이완화되면서전월(-1.9%) 보다감소폭(-9.3%) 이축소됨. 주요에너지자원은원유(-38.5%) 를중심으로큰폭의감소세(-3.8%) 를지속 무역수지는전년동월(62.9 억달러) 보다소폭확대된 7.8억달러의대규모흑자를기록 수출(3MA) 과 OECD+NME 경기선행지수 1 ( 전년동기대비, %, 3 개월이동평균 ) ( 기준 =1) 수출 ( 좌, 3MA) OECD+NME 경기선행지수 ( 우 ) 주: 주요신흥국(NME) 은브라질, 중국, 인도, 인도네시아, 러시아, 남아프리카공화국을의미함

11 월중국제수지 경상수지는상품수출부진에주로기인하여전년동월 (77.3 억달러) 보다흑자폭이 비교적크게축소된 33.7억달러를기록 상품수지는수출이큰폭으로감소( 전년동월대비 -19.2%) 하면서전년동월(12.9억 달러) 보다흑자규모가축소된 95.6억달러흑자를기록 그러나통관기준무역수지가 흑자폭이재차확대될것으로판단됨. 5월에도큰폭의흑자추세를유지하고있어, 상품수지 서비스수지는운송및건설수지를중심으로적자폭이확대되어전년동월(-8. 억달 러) 보다악화된 16.2억달러적자를기록 본원소득수지는배당지급증가로전년동월(-31. 억달러) 보다적자폭(-.7 억달러) 이 확대되었고, 이전소득수지는전년동월(-.6 억달러) 과유사한 -5.억달러를기록 계절조정경상수지(3MA) 와교역조건(3MA) 1 ( 억달러, 3 개월이동평균 ) ( 전년동기대비, %, 3 개월이동평균 ) 계절조정경상수지 ( 좌, 3MA) 교역조건 ( 우, 3MA) 금융계정은순자산증가가전월(122. 억달러 ) 보다큰폭축소된 1.7억달러를기록 직접투자는내국인의해외투자감소와외국인의국내투자증가로인해전월의 35.9억 달러증가에서 1.억달러감소로전환 증권투자는내국인의해외주식투자감소등으로전월(58.7 억달러) 보다감소한 33.6억 달러를기록 기타투자는현금및예금의감소등으로전월의 21.억달러증가에서 33.3억달러 감소로전환 8

12 노동시장 : 제조업을중심으로고용증가폭이축소되는가운데, 하는등고용여건이완만하게위축되는모습 경제활동참가율도하락 월중취업자는전년동월대비 25만 2 천명(1.%) 이증가하여전월 (3만명, 1.2%) 에비해증가폭이축소됨. 산업별로는서비스업(28 만 9 천명, 1.6%) 의취업자증가폭이도소매 음식숙박업을중심 으로확대되었으나, 제조업(만 8 천명, 1.1%) 은전월(12만 5 천명, 2.8%) 에비해증가폭이 크게축소 종사상지위별로는상용직(5만 9 천명, 3.7%) 의취업자증가폭이전월(51 만명,.1%) 에 비해축소되었고, 임시 일용직 (-7만 3 천명, 1.1%) 과비임금근로자 (-13만 3 천명, 2.%) 는 감소세를지속 계절조정실업률은구직활동감소에주로기인하여전월대비.1%p 하락한 3.7% 를 기록 계절조정경제활동참가율과고용률(15~6 세) 은각각전월대비.%p 및.2%p 하락한 62.% 및 65.6% 를기록 3월중상용근로자 5 인이상사업체의명목임금 ( 상용근로자, 정액급여 ) 은전년동월대비 3.6% 의상승률을기록하면서상승세가점차둔화되는모습 ( 15.12월).3% ( 월).2% (2 월).% (3 월) 3.6% 취업자증감및계절조정실업률 7 ( 전년동월대비, 천명 ) (%) 취업자증감 ( 좌 ) 계절조정실업률 ( 우 ) 3.2 9

13 물가 : 5 월중소비자물가는농축수산물가격의상승폭축소로인해전월(1.%) 보다 낮은전년동월대비.8% 상승하면서저물가기조가지속되고있음. 상품물가는농축수산물을중심으로전월(.%) 보다낮은전년동월대비 1.1% 의 상승률을기록 농축수산물가격은농산물 (6.5%.2%) 과축산물(.8% 1.5%) 가격의상승폭이축 소되며전월(5.5%) 보다낮은전년동월대비 1.3% 상승 공업제품가격은가공식품 (1.1%.%) 가격을중심으로전월(-.6%) 보다낮은전년동 월대비.9% 의상승률을기록 한편, 전기 (-8.%) 수도 가스는국제원유가격상승이시차를두고반영되면서전월보다 하락폭이축소된전년동월대비 6.% 를기록 서비스가격은해외단체여행비등개인서비스 (2.% 2.2%) 가격상승폭확대에도불 구하고집세 (2.7% 2.6%) 상승폭이축소되면서전월(2.2%) 과동일한상승률을유지 농산물및석유류제외근원물가는전월(1.8%) 보다낮은전년동월대비 1.6% 의상 승률을보였으며, 1.9% 의상승률을기록 식료품및에너지제외근원물가는전월과동일한전년동월대비 한편, 아파트매매가격및전세가격은전월과동일한전월대비.%,.2% 상승 소비자물가추이및부문별기여도 3 ( 전년동기대비, %, %p) 농축수산물공업제품서비스 전기 수도 가스소비자물가근원물가 주: 부문별. 기여도의합은반올림으로총지수의증감률과일치하지않을수있음 1

14 금융시장 : 국내금융시장은미국금리인상가능성이제기되면서원/ 달러환율이상승한 가운데, 비은행권가계대출이큰폭으로확대되는모습 5 월말원/ 달러환율은미국의금리인상가능성에주로기인하여전월말(1,13.9 원) 대비 6.7원상승한 1,19.6원을기록 원/1 엔환율은전월말(1,58.2 원) 대비 1.6원상승한 1,72.8원을기록 아울러미국금리인상가능성이채권시장과주식시장에도반영되면서전월말대비장기 금리가상승하고종합주가지수는하락하는모습 국고채(3 년만기) 금리는전월말(1.5%) 대비 5bp 상승한 1.5% 를기록 종합주가지수는전월말(1,99.2) 대비 1.8p 하락한 1,983.을기록 한편, 은행권가계대출에대한여신심사가강화되면서비은행예금취급기관및기타 금융기관가계대출이빠르게증가하는모습 예금은행가계대출( 기간중증감액, 조원): ( 1.1/).1 ( 15.1/) 7.8 ( 16.1/) 5.6 예금은행제외가계대출( 기간중증감액, 조원): ( 1.1/).6 ( 15.1/) 6. ( 16.1/) 1.9 환율및금리 1,3 ( 원 ) (%) 2.2 1,2 2. 1, , 원 / 달러 ( 좌 ) 원 /1 엔 ( 좌 ) 국고채 3 년 ( 우 ) 11

15 세계경제: 세계경제는신흥국을중심으로성장세가둔화되는가운데, 미국금리인상 및브렉시트우려등으로불확실성도여전히높은것으로판단됨. 선진국은미국과유로존경제가소비관련지표를중심으로완만한성장세를유지한 반면, 일본은소비와수출이예상을하회하는낮은수준에머물면서경기부진이지속 주요선진국의소매판매 주요선진국의제조업심리지수 8 ( 전년동기대비, %) 6 ( 기준 =5) 미국유로존일본 미국 ISM 제조업 유로존제조업 PMI 신흥시장국은인도등일부아시아국가들이양호한성장세를보였으나, 원자재수출의존도가높은국가들은경기침체가심화 브라질등 주요신흥국의경제성장률 주요신흥국의제조업심리지수 / ( 전년동기대비, %) 5 ( 기준 =5) / 브라질 러시아 타이완 남아공 멕시코 인도네시아 중국 인도 2 중국브라질러시아 주: 브라질과남아공은 215년 3/분기와 / 분기기준. 12

16 미국경제는투자와수출이부진함에도불구하고소비와고용부문이양호한흐름을 보임에따라완만한성장세는유지될것으로예상되고있음. 주택건설투자를중심으로 1/분기중경제성장률이.8%( 전기대비연율) 로상향조정된 가운데, 월중에는산업생산의부진이완화되고개인소비의증가세가확대 미국의산업생산과개인소비지출 미국의실업률과소비자심리지수 6 ( 전년동기대비, %) (%) (3개월이동평균, 기준 =1) 산업생산 ( 좌 ) 개인소비 ( 우 ) 실업률 ( 좌 ) 소비자심리지수 ( 우 ) 유로존경제는내수지표를중심으로완만한회복세를유지하고있으나, 브렉시트우려 등하방위험은여전히상존 1/분기중경제성장률이비교적높은전기대비.5% 를기록하였으며, 소비관련지표와 심리지수가개선되고실업률도완만하게하락하는추세에있음. 유로존주요국의경제성장률 유로존의실업률과경기체감지수.9 ( 전기대비, %) (%) 12. ( 기준 =1) / / -.9 헝가리 그리스 포르투갈 이탈리아 핀란드 영국 프랑스 유로존 네덜란드 독일 스페인 1. 실업률 ( 좌 ) 경기체감지수 ( 우 ) 98 13

17 일본경제는내수와수출모두가부진을지속하면서경기전반이미약한상태에머물러 있음. 고용부문이완만한개선추세를유지하고있으나, 생산(-3.5%) 과소비(-.8%), 수출 (-1.1%) 등대부분의실물지표는부진이심화됨. 일본의산업생산과경기선행지수 일본의수출과수입 6 ( 전년동기대비, %) (21=1) 18 2 ( 전년동기대비, %) 산업생산 ( 좌 ) 경기선행지수 ( 우 ) 수출 수입 중국경제는건설투자와심리지수가개선되었으나, 성장세가완만하게둔화되는모습 생산및수출부진이지속되면서 월중건설투자(11.8%) 가증가세를유지한반면, 수출(-1.8%) 은감소로전환되고설비 투자(2.8%) 도낮은증가세를지속 중국의산업생산및소매판매 중국의설비투자와건설투자 1 ( 전년동기대비, %) 25 ( 전년동기대비, %) 산업생산 소매판매 설비투자 건설투자 1

18 5월중유가는달러화의강세전환에도불구하고캐나다등일부산유국의원유공급 감소우려가제기되면서전월에비해소폭상승 대다수비철금속가격이하락하였으나유가와곡물가격이상승하면서 상품가격지수도상승세를유지하는모습 CRB지수등주요 주요원자재가격 주요상품가격지수 6 ( 전월대비, %) 32 2, ,6 2 2, , , -12 니켈구리알루미늄소맥아연옥수수 Dubai CRB( 좌 ) 로이터 ( 우 ) 주: 원자재가격은 5 월중( 기말기준) 증가율임. 주: 로이터지수는 5월 2 일기준. 한편, 세계교역감소와투자부진, 구조개혁지연등의영향으로세계경제의회복세는전반적으로완만한수준에머무를것으로전망됨. 이와함께주요신흥국의경기침체및금융시장불안, 전히높은것으로평가되고있음. 브렉시트우려등의하방위험도여 주요국의 216 년도경제성장률전망(OECD) 전망시점세계미국유로존일본중국브라질 215년 11월 년 2월 년 6월 자료 : OECD. (%) 15

19 국제금융시장 : 신흥국을중심으로환율이상승하였으나, 주요변동성지수가하락하는 등국제금융시장은비교적안정적인모습 5 월중순이후미국금리인상우려가부각되면서일부선진국의장기금리가소폭상승 하기도했으나, VIX 와신흥시장채권지수는여전히낮은수준에머물러있음. 주요국의장기금리 VIX지수와신흥시장채권지수 3. (%) 미국독일일본 VIX( 좌 ) 신흥시장채권지수 ( 우 ) 35 한편, 달러화대비주요국통화의가치가하락으로전환된가운데, 대다수국가들의 주가지수는전월과비슷한수준을유지 주요국의주가변화율과달러화대비통화절상률 (5월말현재, 전월말대비) 6 (%) 미국유로일본중국러시아인도인도네시아한국 주가변화율 통화절상률 16

20 Summary and Assessment The recent fall in several production indicators implies a minor slowdown in overall economic activities. Mining and manufacturing production and shipments waned further due to reduced workdays amid the continued decline in exports, indicating a contraction in overall production activities. Although the decline in exports decreased in May, a fast improvement in export conditions is unlikely considering weak external conditions and stagnant trade volume. Services production growth gradually moderated and mining and manufacturing production and shipments dwindled due to reduced workdays amid continued the export slump. The manufacturing capacity utilization rate tumbled to 71.%, signalling weakness in overall production activity. Meanwhile, domestic demand indicators continued a recent trend, offsetting the slowdown in the Korean economy. Private consumption showed relatively weak performance in services, but maintained modest growth mainly in durable goods. Facilities investment declined slightly less while construction investment drove the improvement in domestic demand with sustaining growth in the building construction sector. All growth figures are on a year-on-year basis unless otherwise noted. This document is an English translation of the original Korean version; the Korean version takes precedence in case of any ambiguities or discrepancies. 17

21 Economic Activity: Services production growth moderated slowly and mining and manufacturing production and shipments worsened, implying continued weakness in overall economic activities. April's all industry production recorded a.8% growth, down from a month ago (2.%), as services production growth slowed and mining and manufacturing production deteriorated further on fewer workdays. Services production recorded a 2.1% growth, down from a month ago (2.6%), mainly influenced by reduced growth in financial & insurance activities and wholesale & retail trade. Mining and manufacturing production recorded a 2.8% growth, sharply down from a month ago (-.6%). The drop is largely due to the one fewer workday than a year ago. The manufacturing capacity utilization rate recorded 71.%, down from last month (73.7%), implying persistent sluggishness in overall production activities. Mining and Manufacturing Production (3MA) and Service Production Index (3MA) (Year-on-Year % Change, 3MA) Mining and Manufacturingl Production Index (3MA) Service Production Index (3MA) Manufacturing shipments turned downward as domestic demand shipment stagnated, and its inventory-to-shipments ratio moved slightly downward. Manufacturing shipments recorded a 1.8% growth, down from a month ago (.7%), as export shipments continued to decline (-1.9% -2.%) and domestic demand shipments turned to a decrease (3.1% -1.7%). The manufacturing inventory-to-shipments ratio stood at 12.2%, down from a month ago (125.1%), influenced by the decline in certain sectors including semiconductors & parts and petroleum refining. 18

22 Shipment Index (3MA) and Inventory-Shipment Ratio (Year-on-Year % Change, 3MA) (%) Shipment Index (left, 3MA) Inventory-Shipment Ratio (right) The cyclical component of the coincident composite index recorded 1., the same as a month ago, showing little sign of economic improvement. The cyclical component of the leading composite index recorded 12.2, the same as a month ago (12.). Cyclical Component of Composite Economic Indices 13 (Base=1) Cyclical Component of Coincident Index Cyclical Component of Leading Index 19

23 Consumption: Retail sales maintained favorable conditions but services consumption stayed low, indicating a modest increase in private consumption growth. April s retail sales index recorded a.2% growth, continuing last month s steady growth trend (5.7%). By item, durable goods rose 7.9% thanks to passenger car sales (1.5%) and non-durable goods rose 3.1%, continuing last month s upward trend (3.7%), while semi-durable goods rose a mere 1.9%. Services consumption exhibited weak growth while services production recorded a 2.1% growth, deviating from last month s decent trend (2.6%). Services consumption in the National Accounts recorded a.8% growth in 1Q, continuing on a slow growth track. * Services consumption (Y-o-Y, %): (3Q 15).2 (Q) 1. (1Q 16).8 Services production exhibited a slightly reduced growth as growth in financial & insurance activities moderated (1.2%) and that in real estate, rental and leasing turned to a decrease (-3.%). Meanwhile, May s composite sentiment index (CCSI) recorded 99, staying near the baseline (1) from last month, implying no significant changes in the consumption sentiment. Retail Sales Index and Composite Consumer Sentiment Index (Year-on-Year % Change) 1 (Base=1) Retail Sales Index (left) Composite Consumer Sentiment Index (right) 2

24 Facilities Investment: The continued decline in the equipment investment index, mainly machinery, and persistent low levels of leading indicators imply that facilities investment will likely remain sluggish for the time being. April s equipment investment index dropped 2.7%, continuing to trend downward. By category, transport equipment rose 17.%, a temporary increase from a month ago (6.7%) while machinery (largest proportion) exhibited a large decrease (-9.8%) to continue last month s trend (-12.3%). * Machinery (YoY, %): (Jan.) (Feb.) (Mar.) (Apr.) -9.8 The seasonally-adjusted index increased 3.% MoM, maintaining last month s trend (5.8%). But, considering the January and February decreases (-6.5%, -7.1%), the extent of the rebound is limited. Indicators closely related to facilities investment slackened, suggesting improvement is not likely to come shortly. April s (average) manufacturing capacity utilization rate dropped to a very low level of 71.%, continuing on a downward path. April s domestic machinery orders received and May s machinery import (advanced estimate for May 1~2) plunged by 28.2% and 15.9%, hinting that contraction in machinery investment will persist for a while to come. Equipment Investment Index (3MA) and Manufacturing Average Capacity Utilization Rate 3 (Year-on-Year % Change, 3MA) (%) Equipment Investment Index (left, 3MA) Manufacturing Average Capacity Utilization Rate (right) 21

25 Construction Investment: Favorable conditions were sustained with certain improvements in the civil engineering sector and continued high growth in the building construction sector. The value of construction completed (constant) recorded a high growth of 16.1%, owing to continued growth in the building construction sector. By sector, building construction and civil engineering rose 23.% and 3.7%, with the latter helped by the improvements in the power plant sector. Construction orders received recorded a 18.% growth, as building construction reversed last month s slump. By project type, building construction rose 32.2% on the increased performance in residential buildings, whereas civil engineering receded 2.9% on the sluggishness in railway & tracks and machine installation. Meanwhile, the number of unsold pre-sale apartments remained little changed from a month ago while apartment transactions continued to decrease. The number of unsold pre-sale apartments retreated slightly during April, mostly in the capital region, but expanded in other provinces, recording 53,816 units, similar to a month ago (53,85). Apartment transactions exhibited a nationwide drop (5,88), hovering below the 5-year average (62,87). Value of Construction Completed (3MA) and Construction Ordered Received (3MA) 2 (Year-on-Year % Change, 3MA) Value of Construction Completed (left, 3MA) Construction Orders Received (right, 3MA) 22

26 Exports: Despite the reduced drop in exports, a fast recovery is unlikely due to the global economic slowdown and external uncertainties. May s exports recorded a 6.% growth, a smaller decrement than last month (-11.2%), but conditions are not in favor of an improvement. Declines were observed in most key items including petroleum product (-27.2%), vessels (-16.6%), IT-related product (-1.2%) and motor vehicles & parts (-5.5%). By trading partner, the US improved (.7%) amid a gradual economic recovery while China (-9.1%), Japan (-12.%) and EU (-13.1%) exhibited losses. Leading economic indicators (OECD and major emerging markets) have stagnated at a low level (99.3) and world trade volume exhibited a near % growth; combined with mounting external uncertainties e.g. US rate hike and Brexit, a fast improvement in export conditions is unlikely. Imports declined less (-9.3%) than a month ago (-1.9%), as those of items excluding key energy resources moderated less (-.3%). Imports of key energy resources, mainly crude oil (-38.5%), continued to recede (-3.8%) sharply. Trade balance ran a huge surplus of $7.8 billion, slightly up from last year ($6.29 billion). Exports (3MA) and Composite Leading Index for OECD+NME 1 (Year-on-Year % Change, 3MA) (Base=1) Exports (left, 3MA) OECD+NME Composite Leading Index (right) Note: NMEs are Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, Russia and South Africa. 23

27 April s Balance of Payments The current account recorded a surplus of $3.37 billion, down from last year ($7.73 billion), mainly due to decreases in goods exports. The goods account recorded a surplus of $9.56 billion, down from a month ago ($12.9 billion) as exports tumbled significantly (-19.2% Y-o-Y). However, May s trade balance (customs-cleared) maintained a huge surplus, suggesting that the goods account surplus will not shrink fast. The primary income account recorded an increased deficit (-$.7 billion) from last year (-$3.1 billion) due to a rise in dividend payouts. Seasonally Adjusted Current Account (3MA) and Terms of Trade (3MA) 1 (Hundred Million US Dollars, 3MA) (Year-on-Year % Change, 3MA) S.A. Current Account (left, 3MA) Terms of Trade (right, 3MA) The financial account recorded $.17 billion in net assets, sharply down from a month ago ($12.2 billion). Direct investment recorded a $.1 billion decrease, a reversal from last month s increase ($3.59 billion), on a decrease in outbound investment and increase in inbound investment. Portfolio investment recorded $3.36 billion, down from a month ago ($5.87 billion) on a decrease in domestic investors outbound securities investment. Other investments recorded a $3.33 billion decrease, a reversal from last month s increase ($2.1 billion) due to the decreases in cash and savings. 2

28 Labor Market: Employment growth moderated and labor force participation rate decreased, signalling a modest contraction in employment conditions. April s employment growth recorded 252, (1.%), down from last month (3,, 1.2%). By sector, services employment growth (289,, 1.6%) expanded in wholesale & retail trade and accommodation & food services while manufacturing contracted (8,, 1.1%) much more than a month ago (125,, 2.8%). On a seasonally-adjusted MoM basis, the unemployment rate registered 3.7%, down by.1%p from a month ago, largely influenced by shrinking job-seeking activities. On a seasonally-adjusted MoM basis, the rates of labor force participation and employment (aged 15~6) registered 62.% and 65.6%, respectively, down by.%p and.2%p. March s nominal regular wage (in a workplace of more than 5 full-time employees) rose 3.6%, signalling a gradual slowdown. (Dec. 15).3% (Jan. 16).2% (Feb.).% (Mar.) 3.6% Changes in the Number of Employed Persons and Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment Rate 7 (Year-on-Year Change, Thousand Persons) (%) Changes in Employed Persons (left) S.A. Unemployment Rate (right) 25

29 CPI: May s headline CPI inflation stood at.8%, lower than a month ago (1.%), due to slower growth in the prices of agricultural, livestock and fishery products. Commodity prices rose 1.1%, down from a month ago (.%), mainly in agricultural, livestock and fishery products. Prices of agricultural, livestock and fishery products rose 1.3%, down from a month ago (5.5%), influenced by the reduced increment in the prices of agricultural (6.5%.2%) and livestock products (.8% 1.5%). Industrial goods prices showed a smaller increase (.9%) than a month ago (-.6%) mainly influenced by the decrease in processed foods (1.1%.%). Utility fees (water, electricity and gas) fell 6.% growth, up from a month ago (-8.%), as it takes time for rising crude oil prices to materialize. Services prices rose 2.2%, the same as a month ago, as the increase in prices of individual services (2.% 2.2%), including group tours, is dampened by the reduced increase in housing rental prices (2.7% 2.6%). Core inflation, excluding agricultural and petroleum products, stood at 1.6%, down from a month ago (1.8%). Prices of apartment purchases and joense rose.% and.2% MoM, the same as last month. CPI Change and Contribution by Sector 3 Agricultural Service CPI (Year-on-Year, %, %p) Manufacturing Electricity, water, and gas Core CPI Note: The sum of sector-b-sector contributions are rounded off to the nearest integer, which may be inconsistent with the growth rate of the total index. 26

30 Financial Market: The dollar/won exchange rate went up mainly on the increasing odds of a US rate hike while households loans from non-banking financial institutes increased. As of end-may, the dollar/won exchange rate recorded 1,19.6 won, up by 6.7 won from a month ago (1,13.9won), largely on the likelihood of a US rate hike. The yen/won exchange rate recorded 1,72.8 won per 1 yen, up by 1.6 won from a month ago (1,58.2 won). As of end-may, long-term interest rates increased while the KOSPI closed lower from a month ago. Government bonds yields (3-year maturity) recorded month ago (1.5%). 1.5%, up by 5bp from a The KOSPI closed at 1,983., down by 1.8p from a month ago (1,99.2). Meanwhile, household loans offered by non-bank depositaries and other financial institutions increased fast, as banks tightened screening on credit reviews for household loan applications. Bank loans to households (change, trillion won): (1Q 1).1 (1Q (1Q 16) ) 7.8 Non-bank depositaries and other financial institutions loans to households (change, trillion won): (1Q 1).6 (1Q 15) 6. (1Q 16) 1.9 Exchange Rate and 3-year Treasury Bond 1,3 (won) (%) 2.2 1,2 2. 1, , KRW/USD (left) KRW/1JPY (left) 3-year Treasury Bond (right) 27

31 World Economy: The global economy has slowed led by emerging markets, and uncertainties remain high over a US rate hike and Brexit. The US and Eurozone saw a gradual recovery of consumption, but Japan remained in a slump on weaker than expected consumption and exports. 8 Retail Sales in the US, Eurozone, and Japan (Year-on-Year % Change) 6 Manufacturing Indices in the US and Eurozone (Base=5) US Eurozone Japan US ISM Eurozone PMI India and some Asian countries, exhibited healthy growth whereas raw material exporting countries like Brazil, stagnated further. 9 GDP Growth Rates in Emerging Economies (Year-on-Year % Change) 215 / 5 Manufacturing Indices in China, Brazil, and Russia (Base=5) / Brazil Russia Taiwan South Africa Mexico Indonesia China India Note: Brazil and South Africa as of 3Q and Q of 215. China Brazil Russia 28

32 The US economy is projected to sustain modest growth as consumption and employment exhibited favorable conditions. 1Q GDP growth was revised up to.8% (Q-o-Q, annualized). April also saw a moderated slump in industrial production and increase in personal consumption. US Industrial Production and Personal Consumption Expenditures (Year-on-Year % Change) 6 5 (%) 6.5 US Unemployment Rate and Consumer Sentiment (3MA, Base=1) Industrial Production (left) Personal Consumption (right) Unemployment Rate (left) Consumer Sentiment (right) The Eurozone maintained a modest recovery led by domestic demand but downside risks including Brexit still linger. 1Q GDP growth rate recorded a relatively high.5% QoQ, while consumption and sentiment indices trending upward and unemployment rate falling slowly..9 GDP Growth Rates in Eurozone (Quarter-on-Quarter % Change) Unemployment Rate and Sentiment Indicator in Eurozone (%) (Base=1) / 216 1/ Hungary Greece Portugal Italy Finland UK France Eurozone Netherlands Germany Spain Unemployment Rate (left) Sentiment Indicator (right) 29

33 Japan exhibited continued weakness in overall economic activities as domestic demand and exports stayed sluggish despite improvements in a few indicators. Employment continued a modest improvement while most indicators deteriorated further: production (-3.5%), consumption (-.8%) and exports (-1.1%). Japan's Industrial Production and Leading Index (Year-on-Year % Change) (21=1) Japan's Exports and Imports (Year-on-Year % Change) Industrial Production (left) Leading Index (right) Exports Imports China slowed at a gradual pace on continuing sluggishness in production and exports, although its construction investment improved. April saw continued growth in construction investment (11.8%), a downturn in exports (-1.8%) and continuing slow growth in facilities investment (2.8%). 1 China's Industrial Production and Retail Sales (Year-on-Year % Change) 25 China's Equipment Investment and Construction Investment (Year-on-Year % Change) Industrial Production Retail Sales Equipment Investment Construction Investment 3

34 In May, despite a stronger dollar, oil prices inched up on concerns over reduced oil supplies from oil producers including Canada. Major commodity prices such as the CRB index stayed on a upward path as prices of key non-ferrous metals dropped but those of oil and grains rose. 6 Prices of Key Raw Materials (Month-on-Month % Change) CRB and Reuters Indices of Commodity Prices 32 2, , , , Nickel Copper Aluminum Wheat Zinc Corn Dubai 16 CRB (left) Reuters (right) 2, Note: As of the end-may. Note: Reuters as of May 2 th. Meanwhile, the global economy is projected to recover at a modest pace, influenced by falling trade volume, shrinking investment and lagging structural reform. Downside risks run still high over economic stagnation and financial market instability in emerging economies and the possibility of Brexit. OECD World Economic Outlook Release World US Eurozone Japan China Brazil Nov Feb, Jun Source: OECD. (%) 31

35 Global Financial Markets: Emerging economies saw their currency depreciate, but key volatility indices declined, implying overall stability in financial markets. Several advanced economies exhibited a slight rise in long-term interest rates on rising concerns over a US rate hike since mid-may, but the VIX and emerging market bond index remained low. 3. Long-Term Interest Rates in the US, Germany, and Japan (%) 5 VIX and Emerging Market Bond Index US Germany Japan VIX (left) EMBI (right) 35 Meanwhile, major currencies turned weaker against the dollar while stock prices in most countries stayed roughly the same as last month. Major Currency Revaluation Rates against USD and Changes in Stock Prices (End-April vs. End-May) 6 (%) US Euro Japan China Russia India Indonesia Korea Stock Price Change Currency Revaluation Rate 32

36 경제동향주요지표 Major Indicators of the Korean Economy

37 국내총생산및국내총소득 (21 년불변가격 ) 민간소비및고정투자(21 년불변가격) GDP and GDI Private Consumption and Fixed Investment (at 21 Constant Prices) (at 21 Constant Prices) 8 ( 전년동기대비, % / Year-on-Year % Change) 15 ( 전년동기대비, % / Year-on-Year % Change) II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I 1 II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I 213 국내총생산 (GDP) 국내총소득 (GDI) 213 민간소비 (Private Consumption) 설비투자 (Facilities Investment) 건설투자 (Construction Investment) 상품및서비스수출(21 년불변가격) 상품및서비스수입(21 년불변가격) Exports of Goods and Services Imports of Goods and Services (at 21 Constant Prices) (at 21 Constant Prices) 15 ( 전년동기대비, % / Year-on-Year % Change) 15 ( 전년동기대비, % / Year-on-Year % Change) II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I -5 II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I 상품수출 (Exports of Goods) 서비스수출 (Exports of Services) 상품수입 (Imports of Goods) 서비스수입 (Imports of Services) 3

38 1. 국내총생산(21 년불변가격) Gross Domestic Product (at 21 Constant Prices) GDP 민간소비 Private Consumption 설비투자 Facilities Investment 국내총생산 건설투자 Construction Investment 총수출 Total Export 총수입 Total Import ( 조원, Trillion Won) 국내총소득 Gross Domestic Income 29 1, , , , , , , , , , , , p 1, , Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ Ⅰ p Ⅱ p Ⅲ p Ⅳ p Ⅰ p 전년동기대비증가율 (%) Percentage Change from the Same Period of the Previous Year p Ⅰ 2.1 (.7) 1.5 (-.1) ( 2.8) 1.2 ( 3.8) 5.6 (.2) -.3 (.8) 2.9 (.6) Ⅱ 2.7 ( 1.) 1.9 (.5) -3.2 (.6) 8.9 (.6) 6. ( 2.1) 1.2 ( 1.).7 ( 1.8) Ⅲ 3.2 (.8) 1.9 ( 1.1) 2.3 ( 3.6) 7.5 (-1.5) 2.5 (-.).9 (.2).2 ( 1.2) Ⅳ 3.5 (.9) 2.2 (.6) 11.7 (.) 3.5 (-2.) 3.1 ( 1.1) 5. ( 2.6).3 (.6) 21 Ⅰ 3.9 ( 1.1) 2.8 (.) 7. (-1.1).5 ( 3.3) 3.5 (.8) 2.7 (-1.6).8 ( 1.2) Ⅱ 3.5 (.6) 1.7 (-.3) 7.9 ( 1.3).3 ( 1.1) 2.8 ( 1.1) 2. (.8) 3.8 (.7) Ⅲ 3. (.7) 1. (.7). (.3) 2.3 (-.8) 1.3 (-1.5) 1.7 (-.1) 3. (.3) Ⅳ 2.7 (.3) 1.1 (.3). ( 3.5) -1.7 (-.9).7 (.3) -. (.) 3.6 ( 1.) 215 Ⅰ p 2. (.8) 1.5 (.8) 5.8 (.5).9 ( 5.5).5 (.6) 2.1 (.9) 6.1 ( 3.5) Ⅱ p 2.2 (.) 1.7 (-.1) 5.1 (.8) 1. ( 1.8) -. (-.1) 1.6 (.) 6. ( 1.) Ⅲ p 2.8 ( 1.2) 2.2 ( 1.1) 6.7 ( 1.8) 5.6 ( 3.3).5 (-.3) 3.1 ( 1.) 7. ( 1.) Ⅳ p 3.1 (.7) 3.3 ( 1.) 3.9 (.5) 7.5 (-2.) 2.5 ( 2.1) 6.1 ( 3.2) 6.1 (.7) 216 Ⅰ p 2.8 (.5) 2.2 (-.2) -.5 (-7.) 9.6 ( 6.8).7 (-1.1) 1.9 (-3.1) 5.6 ( 3.) 주 : 1) p 는잠정치. 2) ( ) 는계절조정전기대비증가율. 자료 : 한국은행. Note: 1) p is preliminary. 2) Figures in parentheses indicate percentage changes from the previous period (S.A.). Source: Bank of Korea. 35

39 생산지수 Production Indices 출하지수및재고지수 Shipment and Inventory Indices 6 ( 전년동기대비, % / Year-on-Year % Change) 9 ( 전년동기대비, % / Year-on-Year % Change) 전산업생산지수 (All Industry Prod. Index) -6 광공업생산지수 (Mining and Manufac. Prod. Index) 서비스업생산지수 (Service Prod. Index) 출하지수 (Shipment Index) 재고지수 (Inventory Index) 경기종합지수순환변동치한국은행 BSI 제조업실적및전망(S.A.) Cyclical Component of Economic Indices BOK Business Survey Index (Seasonally Adjusted) 13 ( 기준 =1 / Base=1) 85 ( 기준 =1 / Base=1) 동행지수순환변동치 (Composite Coincident Index) 선행지수순환변동치 (Composite Leading Index) BSI 제조업실적 (BSI Manufac. Tendency) BSI 제조업전망 (BSI Manufac. Future Tendency) 36

40 2. 경기 Economic Activity 전산업 2) All Industry Production 생산지수 Production Indices 광공업 3) Mining and Manufacturing Production 서비스업 Service Production 생산자제품 Producer's Product 출하 Shipment 재고 Inventory 경기종합지수순환변동치 1) Cyclical Component of Economic Indices 동행지수 Composite Coincident Index 선행지수 Composite Leading Index ( 전년동기대비, % / Year-on-Year % Change) 한국은행 BSI 1) ( 제조업, 계절조정) BOK BSI (Manufacturing, S.A.) 실적 Tendency 전망 Future Tendency 제조업평균가동률 Capacity Utilization Rate (%) Ⅳ.9 (.1) -1.5 (-.8) 2.8 (.8) -.8 (.1) -2.5 (-1.6) Ⅰ 1. (.2) -1.1 (-.3) 2.7 (.5) -.8 (-.7) 1.9 ( 3.) Ⅱ 1. (.2) -1.3 (-.5) 2.7 (.5) -1.1 (-.).5 ( 2.3) Ⅲ 2.1 ( 1.6) -.1 ( 1.7) 2.9 ( 1.2).8 ( 2.1) 6.7 ( 2.6) Ⅳ 2. (.5) -.1 (-.9) 3.3 ( 1.2).2 (-.5) 2.9 (-5.3) Ⅰ p 2.3 (.1) -.3 (-.6) 2.8 (-.1) -.9 (-1.9) 2.9 ( 3.9) Ⅱ (.7) -2.8 (-1.1) 2.8 (.8) -3. (-1.3) 2.9 (.3) (.1) -3.1 (.9) 2.3 (.) -1.6 ( 2.5).2 (-1.3) ( 1.) 1. ( 2.7) 3.5 (.) 2.2 ( 1.9) -2.5 (-.6) (-1.6) 1.5 (-3.5) 2. (-.7) 2.5 (-3.) -.2 (.2) ( 1.9) -5.1 ( 1.9) 2.7 ( 1.3) -5. (.8) 2. ( 2.) (-.3).1 (-.2) 3.1 (.1). (.) 1.9 (.) (-.1) -2.2 (-.7).3 (.7) -1.5 (-.7) 2.2 ( 1.7) (-.5) -3. (-1.2) 2.3 (-.6) -3. (-.8) 2.6 (-1.2) (.3) 1.6 ( 1.9) 1.5 (-1.) 1.1 ( 1.).5 ( 1.8) (.5) -3. (-.7) 2.6 ( 1.5) -1.9 (-.2) 3. (.2) ( 1.2).2 ( 1.9) 2.3 (.5).2 ( 1.9) 5.3 (.7) ( 1.) 3. (.9) 3.8 (.5).1 ( 1.7) 6.7 ( 1.6) (-.8) 2.1 (-1.3) 3. (.2) 3.3 (-1.2).7 (-1.1) (-.5) -.2 (-1.5) 3. (.) -.8 (-2.1) 5. (-1.) ( 1.5) -2.1 (.6) 3.7 ( 1.2) -1.7 ( 1.) 2.9 (-3.3) (-1.) -2.2 (-2.1) 3. (-1.2) -. (-.1).2 ( 1.9) p 2.5 (.7) 2.3 ( 3.2) 2.8 (.3).7 ( 2.3) 3.6 ( 1.9) p 2. (.7) -.6 (-1.3) 2.6 (.5).7 ( 2.2) 2.9 (.) p.8 (-.8) -2.8 (-1.3) 2.1 (.5) -1.8 (-1.6) -1.1 (-2.3) 주 : 1) 기준치=1. 2) 213~1 년연간지수는농림어업포함. 3) 광업, 제조업, 전기 가스업을포함. ) p 는잠정치( 한국은행 BSI 제외). 5) ( ) 는계절조정전기대비증가율. 자료 : 통계청; 한국은행. Note: 1) Base=1. 2) Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheris sectors is included for annual index in 213~21. 3) Mining & Manufacturing, Electricity & Gas Industry. ) p is preliminary (BOK BSI are excluded). 5) Figures in parentheses indicate percentage changes from the previous period (S.A.). Source: Statistics Korea; Bank of Korea. 37

41 민간소비( 소비재) 와소매판매액지수유형별소매판매액지수 Private Consumption (Consumer Goods) and Retail Retail Sales Index by Group of Goods Sales Index 12 ( 전년동기대비, % / Year-on-Year % Change) 25 ( 전년동기대비, % / Year-on-Year % Change) 민간소비 ( 소비재 ) (Private Comsumption (Consumer Goods)) 소매판매액지수 (Retail Sales Index) 내구재 (Durable) 준내구재 (Qusai-durable) 비내구재 (Nondurable) 소비재출하지수및소비재수입액 Consumer Goods Shipment Index and Consumer Goods Import 소비자동향조사 Consumer Survey 3 ( 전년동기대비, % / Year-on-Year % Change) 115 ( 기준치 =1 / Base=1) 소비재출하 (Consumer Goods Shipment Index) 소비재수입 (Consumer Goods Import) 97 소비자심리지수 (Composite Comsumer Sentiment Index) 소비지출전망 (Prospective Household Spending) 38

42 3. 소비 Consumption Retail Sales Index 소매판매액 유형별지수 by Group of Goods 비내구재준내구재 Nondurable Quasidurable 내구재 Durable 승용차 Automobile 소비재출하 Consumer Goods Shipment Index 소비재수입 1) Consumer Goods Import ( 전년동기대비, % / Year-on-Year % Change) 소비자심리지수 Composite Consumer Sentiment Index (CCSI) 소비자동향조사 2) Consumer Survey 현재경기판단 Current Domestic Economic Conditions 향후경기전망 Prospective Domestic Economic Conditions 소비지출전망 Prospective Household Spending Ⅳ 2.7 (.) Ⅰ.3 (-1.) Ⅱ 1.1 (.8) Ⅲ.5 (.8) Ⅳ 1.1 (.) Ⅰ 2.6 (.8) Ⅱ 1.2 (-.5) Ⅲ 2. ( 1.3) Ⅳ 2. (.3) Ⅰ 2.1 ( 1.) Ⅱ 3. (.7) Ⅲ 3.5 ( 1.3) Ⅳ 6.2 ( 3.1) Ⅰ p.5 (-1.1) (-.2) (-2.) ( 1.8) ( 1.9) (-.3) ( 2.8) (-.3) (.1) (-1.) (-1.5) p 5.7 (.3) p.2 (-.5) p 주 : 1) 소비재수입액을전월의소비재수입물가지수로실질화. 2) 기준치=1. 3) p 는잠정치( 단, 소비자동향조사는제외). ) ( ) 는계절조정전기대비증가율. 자료 : 한국은행; 통계청; 한국무역협회. Note: 1) Nominal consumer goods import deflated by import price index (consumer goods) of the previous month. 2) Base=1. 3) p is preliminary (Consumer survey is excluded). ) Figures in parentheses indicate percentage changes from the previous period (S.A.). Source: Bank of Korea; Statistics Korea; Korea International Trade Association. 39

43 형태별설비투자지수 Equipment Investment Index by Type 설비투자지수와기계류내수출하지수 Equipment Investment Index and Domestic Machinery Shipment Index 5 ( 전년동기대비, % / Year-on-Year % Change) 2 ( 전년동기대비, % / Year-on-Year % Change) 기계류 (Machinery) 운송장비 (Transport Equipment) -15 설비투자지수 (Equipment Investment Index) 기계류내수출하지수 (Domestic Machinery Shipment Index) 내수용자본재수입액과기계류수입액 Import of Capital Good for Domestic Demand and Machinery Import 국내기계수주 Domestic Machinery Orders Received 3 ( 전년동기대비, % / Year-on-Year % Change) 16 ( 전년동기대비, % / Year-on-Year % Change) 내수용자본재수입액 (Import of Capital Good for Domestic Demand) 기계류수입액 (Machinery Import) -8 총수주액 (Total) 민간수주액 (Private)

44 . 설비투자 Equipment Investment Equipment Investment Index 설비투자지수 기계류 Machinery 운송장비 Transport Equipment 기계류내수출하지수 1) Domestic Machinery Shipment Index 기계류수입액 2) Machinery Import Domestic Machinery Orders Received ( 십억원, Billion Won, 21=1) 국내기계수주 3) 공공 Public 민간 Private ,193 26,87 5,12 21, ,1 25,55 1,921 23, Ⅰ ,57 6,3 5 6,25 Ⅱ ,278 7, ,52 Ⅲ ,839 5, ,197 Ⅳ ,751 6, , Ⅰ p ,39 6, , ,723 2, , ,533 2, , ,21 2, , ,212 2, 133 1, ,25 1, , ,373 1, , ,688 2,8 98 1, ,151 1, , ,912 2, , ,979 1, , ,328 2, ,2 3 p ,87 2, ,16 p ,6 1, ,797 전년동기대비증가율 (%) Percentage Change from the Same Period of the Previous Year Ⅰ 9.2 (-.2) ( -.1) Ⅱ.5 (-2.2) ( 8.6) Ⅲ 1.2 ( 5.2) (-1.) Ⅳ 1.6 (-1.2) ( 9.2) Ⅰ p -7.1 (-8.8) ( -6.3) (-3.6) ( 32.8) (-1.) (-2.2) ( 3.2) ( -2.2) ( 1.1) (.1) ( 3.) ( -6.9) ( 1.) ( 5.8) (-.9) ( 6.) (-5.2) ( -8.1) ( 3.7) ( 23.) (-6.5) (-3.2) (-7.1) ( 36.) p -7. ( 5.8) ( -7.8) p -2.7 ( 3.) (-1.3) 주 : 1) 선박제외. 2) 백만달러. 3) 선박제외, 21 년불변가격. ) p 는잠정치( 단, 기계류수입액은제외). 5) ( ) 는계절조정전기대비증가율. 자료 : 한국은행; 통계청; 무역협회. Note: 1) Vessels are excluded. 2) Million US Dollars. 3) Vessels are excluded, at 21 Constant Prices. ) p is preliminary (Machinery Import is excluded). 5) Figures in parentheses indicate percentage changes from the previous period (S.A.). Source: Bank of Korea; Statistics Korea; International Trade Association. 1

45 건설기성액( 불변가격) 및국내건설수주공사종류별건설기성액( 불변가격) Construction Completed (at 21 Constant Prices) Value of Construction Completed by Type and Construction Orders Received (at 21 Constant Prices) 28 ( 전년동기대비, % / Year-on-Year % Change) 18 3 ( 전년동기대비, % / Year-on-Year % Change) 건설기성액 ( 좌 ) / Value of Cons. Completed (left) 국내건설수주 ( 우 ) / Cons. Orders Received (right) 건축 (Building) 토목 (Civil Engineering) 건축허가면적및건축착공면적 Building Construction Permits and Building Construction Initiated 주택건설및미분양주택수 Housing Construction and Number of Unsold Houses 1 ( 전년동기대비, % / Year-on-Year % Change) 16 ( 전년동기비, % / Y-on-Y %) ( 전월비, 호 / M-on-M Unit) 건축허가면적 (Building Construction Permits) 건축착공면적 (Building Construction Initiated) 주택건설 ( 좌 ) / Housing Construction (left) 미분양 ( 우 ) / Num. of Unsold Houses (right) 2

46 5. 건설투자 Construction Investment 건설기성액 1) Value of Construction Completed 합계 Total 공사종류별 By Type 건축 Building 토목 Civil Engineering 국내건설수주 Construction Orders Received 건축허가면적 Building Construction Permits ( 십억원, 천m2, 호, Billion Won, Thousand m2, Unit) 건축착공면적 Building Construction Initiated 주택건설 Housing Construction 미분양주택수 3) Number of Unsold Houses 21 89,67 55,9 33,73 9,66 11,37 111, ,251, ,713 59,265 32,9 13, ,8 152, ,328 61, Ⅰ 19,8 12,361 7,87 25,17 33,938 28,38 118,772 28,897 Ⅱ 22,926 1,565 8,362 35,21 6,575 2,61 181,38 3,68 Ⅲ 22,788 15,15 7,638 36, 57,537 36,68 2,6 32,52 Ⅳ 26,551 17,189 9,362 37,27 51,79 5,52 225,188 61, Ⅰ p 22,291 15,18 7,183 29,52,636 28, ,9 53, ,62,527 2,535 9,55 15,816 13,79 51,35 28,93 5 7,115,713 2,2 12,639 1,732 13,71 56,861 28,12 6 8,79 5,325 3,25 13,516 16,27 15,79 73,12 3,68 7 7,28,936 2,312 8,685 23, 12,217 82,836 33, ,38,853 2,55 8,659 16,651 13,25 69,269 31, ,231 5,361 2,87 19,97 17,81 11,6 87,955 32,52 1 7,812 5,325 2,87 1,378 17,159 18,131 6,2 32, ,19 5,65 2,55 13,226 16,13 15,96 62,823 9, ,72 6,398,322 13,666 18,51 11,12 98,165 61, ,8,656 2,18 7,225 12,199 6,938 7,536 6,737 2 p 6,729,66 2,7 1,1 12,259 8,886 53,723 55,13 3 p 8,758 5,793 2,965 11,812 16,179 12,687 61,75 53,85 p 8,199 5,57 2,629 1,683 15,583 1,56 59,675 53,816 전년동기대비증가율 (%) Percentage Change from the Same Period of the Previous Year , , Ⅰ -1.7 (.1) ( 7.) ,82 Ⅱ -3.8 (-2.1) ( 11.6) ,171 Ⅲ 6.2 ( 6.) ( 21.3) ,5 Ⅳ 8. (.) (-26.5) , Ⅰ p 1.6 ( 9.3) ( 18.1) , (-1.8) (-21.6) ( 1.9) ( 33.) ( 3.3) (-2.5) , (-.3) ( -.2) ( 3.5) ( 16.7) , (.) ( 59.9) (-5.7) (-6.9) (-.5) ( 19.7) , ( 7.5) (-33.5) , (.6) ( 19.5) p 1.1 ( 2.) (.3) ,63 3 p 23.1 ( 7.) (-11.6) ,258 p 16.1 (-6.7) ( 1.9) 주 : 1) 21 년불변가격. 2) p 는잠정치. 3) 전기대비증감. ) ( ) 는계절조정전기대비증가율. 자료 : 통계청; 국토교통부. Note: 1) At 21 Constant Prices. 2) p is preliminary. 3) Month-on-month number changes. ) Figures in parentheses indicate percentage changes from the previous period (S.A.). Source: Statistics Korea; Ministry of Land Infrastructure and Transport. 3

47 상품수출및수입 Commodity Exports and Commodity Imports 품목별수출 Exports by Item 1 ( 전년동기대비, % / Year-on-Year % Change) 2 ( 전년동기대비, % / Year-on-Year % Change) ICT (ICT) 수출 (Commodity Exports) 수입 (Commodity Imports) 자동차및부품 (Automobiles & Parts) 석유류 (Petrochemicals & Petroleum Products) 일평균수출및수입액 Average Exports and Imports per Day 수출입가격및교역조건 Export and Import Prices, and Terms of Trade 22 ( 억달러 / Hundred Million US Dollars) 1 ( 전년동기대비, % / Year-on-Year % Change) 수출가격 (Export Price) 일평균수출액 (Average Exports per Day) 일평균수입액 (Average Imports per Day) 수입가격 (Import Price) 순상품교역조건 (Terms of Trade)

48 6-1. 수출, 수입및교역조건 Exports, Imports and Terms of Trade 수출 Exports 수입 Imports 무역수지 Balance of Trade 수출물가 ( 계약시점 ) Export Price (Time of Contract Formation) 수입물가 ( 계약시점 ) Import Price (Time of Contract Formation) ( 억달러, Hundred Million US Dollars, 21=1) 수출가격 ( 통관시점 ) Export Price (Customs Clearance Point) 수입가격 ( 통관시점 ) Import Price (Customs Clearance Point) 교역조건 Terms of Trade 213 5,596 5, ,727 5, ,268, Ⅰ 1,33 1, Ⅱ 1,351 1, Ⅲ 1,282 1, Ⅳ 1,3 1, Ⅰ 1, p p 전년동기대비증가율 (%) Percentage Change from the Same Period of the Previous Year Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ Ⅰ p p 주 : p 는잠정치. 자료 : 관세청; 산업통상자원부; 한국은행; OECD. Note: p is preliminary. Source: Korea Customs Service; Ministry of Trade, Industry & Energy; Bank of Korea; OECD. 5