11월 속표지_담당자.hwp

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2 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_ 총괄국내총생산경기소비설비투자건설투자대외거래노동시장물가금융시장재정세계경제 김현욱 정대희구희일권규호한일수박종호박준석조덕상김슬기오지윤이유진최우진안소연김지운정유경이장욱노시연황순주권수연이태석이지현이상규류지영황세진이우열 본자료는 KDI 홈페이지를통해서도보실수있습니다.

3 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 Contents 주요경제지표 Major Economic Indicators 요약및평가 Summary and Assessment 경제동향주요지표 Major Indicators of the Korean Economy 1. 국내총생산(21 년불변가격) 37 Gross Domestic Product (at 21 Constant Prices) 2. 경기 39 Economic Activity 3. 소비 41 Consumption 4. 설비투자 43 Equipment Investment 5. 건설투자 45 Construction Investment 6-1. 수출, 수입및교역조건 47 Exports, Imports and Terms of Trade 6-2. 경상수지및금융계정 49 Current Account and Financial Account 7. 고용및임금 51 Employment and Wage 8. 물가 53 Price Indices 9-1. 금융시장 (I) 55 Financial Market (I) 9-2. 금융시장 (II) 57 Financial Market (II) 1-1. 세계경제동향 (I) 59 Major Indicators of the World Economy (I) 1-2. 세계경제동향 (II) 61 Major Indicators of the World Economy (II)

4 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 주요경제지표 Major Economic Indicators ( 전년동기대비증가율, % / Year-on-Year % Change) Ⅳ Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ 전산업생산 All Industry Production 광공업생산 Industrial Production 서비스업생산 Service Production 소매판매액 Retail Sales Index 설비투자지수 Equipment Investment Index 건설기성액 ( 불변 ) Value of Construction Completed (Constant Price) 수출 ( 통관 ) Exports (f.o.b.) 수입 ( 통관 ) Imports (c.i.f.) 무역수지 ( 십억달러 ) Balance of Trade (Billion US Dollars) 실업률 Unemployment Rate 취업자수 Number of Employed 소비자물가 Consumer Price 국고채 3-year Treasury Bonds 종합주가지수 KOSPI 원/ 달러환율 Won/Dollar Exchange Rate OECD 경기선행지수 OECD Composite Leading Indicator 유가 ( 두바이, 달러 / 배럴 ) Oil Prices (Dubai, US$/Barrel) ,961 2,26 2,26 2,16 2,392 2,394 2,363 2,394 2,523 1, ,27.7 1,27.7 1, , , , , , 주: 국고채수익률 종합주가지수 원/ 달러환율은기말기준, 유가( 두바이) 는기간평균기준임.

5 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 요약및평가 최근우리경제는수출과제조업중심의경기개선추세가이어지는가운데, 소비를중심으로내수가소폭확대된모습 대외수요가견실한모습을지속하고있으며계절적요인도작용하면서반 도체를중심으로제조업생산이일시적으로빠르게확대 세계경제의회복세가가시화되면서수출이전반적으로높은증가세를유지하고 있는것으로판단됨. 9월중제조업생산은조업일수증가및장기연휴를앞둔조기생산등의영향이 겹치면서이례적으로높은증가율을기록 한편, 투자가양호한흐름을지속하는가운데, 상대적으로부진하였던소비도 다소개선됨. 9 월중관련선행지표가다소부진한모습을보이고있으나, 설비투자지수와건설기성은모두전월에비해증가폭을확대하는등최근의양호한추세가아직지속되고있음. 소비자심리지수가상승세로전환한가운데소매판매증가율은내구재를중심으로개선되었고, 소비관련서비스업생산지수도증가폭이확대 별도의언급이없을경우모든증가율은전년동월대비기준임. 1

6 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 경기: 생산및출하의증가폭이크게확대되었으나, 명절이동등일시적인요인을고 려하면경기개선추세는완만한것으로판단됨. 9 월중전산업생산은전월(2.5%) 보다증가폭이확대된 7.4% 의증가율을기록 광공업생산은조업일수증가(2.5 일) 와전년도파업에의한영향으로전월(2.3%) 보다높은 8.4% 의증가율을기록 서비스업생산은명절이동과기저효과에주로기인하여도소매업 (.5% 6.6%), 운수업 (.9% 6.5%) 등에서증가폭이확대되며전월(2.1%) 보다높은 5.4% 의증가율을기록 한편, 제조업평균가동률은전월(72.%) 보다소폭하락한 71.8% 를기록 광공업생산지수 (3MA) 및서비스업생산지수 (3MA) 6 ( 전년동기대비, %, 3 개월이동평균 ) 광공업생산지수 (3MA) 서비스업생산지수 (3MA) 제조업출하역시 하락하는모습 8.5% 의높은증가율을기록하였고, 제조업재고율은전월보다소폭 제조업출하는내수출하(9.2%) 가증가하고장기간연휴를앞두고수출출하(7.7%) 가크게 확대되면서높은증가율을기록하였으나, 계절조정전월대비로는.2% 감소 제조업재고율( 재고/ 출하비율) 은자동차(14.2%) 를중심으로재고가소폭증가하였으나 출하가개선되면서전월(121.2%) 보다소폭하락한 119.2% 를기록 2

7 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 제조업출하지수(3MA) 와재고율 6 ( 전년동기대비, %, 3 개월이동평균 ) (%) 제조업출하지수 ( 좌, 3MA) 제조업재고율 ( 우 ) 11 동행지수순환변동치는건설기성액이감소하였으나, 서비스업생산지수, 소매판매액지수 등이증가하며전월(1.8) 보다소폭상승한 1.9를기록 한편, 선행지수순환변동치는기계류내수출하지수, 소비자기대지수등이감소하며전월보다.2p 하락한 11.6을기록 동행지수순환변동치와선행지수순환변동치 12. ( 기준 =1) 동행지수순환변동치 선행지수순환변동치 3

8 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 소비: 소매판매및서비스업생산의증가율이확대되고소비자심리지수도상승 9 월소매판매액지수는전월(.9%) 보다증가폭이크게확대된 8.3% 의증가율을기록 내구재는통신기기및컴퓨터(26.%) 가개선되면서 2.8% 의증가율을기록하는등 소매판매의확대를견인하였고, 비내구재와준내구재는각각 4.3% 및 2.3% 증가 계절조정전월대비로도소매판매는전월(-.9%) 의감소에서 3.1% 증가로전환 서비스업생산은민간소비와관련이높은업종을중심으로개선흐름을나타냄. 민간소비와관련이높은도소매업은전월(.5%) 보다증가폭이크게확대된 6.6% 의증가 율을기록하였고, 음식 숙박업은 216년 3/4분기부터이어진감소세에서벗어나 2.4% 의 증가율을기록 다만, 서비스업생산의빠른확대에는기저효과가일정부분작용하고있다는점을감안할 때서비스소비의개선속도는비교적완만한것으로판단됨. 1월소비자심리지수는경기개선에대한기대감으로전월보다 1.5p 세로전환 상승하며증가 소비자심리지수는현재경기판단 (87 91) 및향후경기전망 (96 99) 을중심으로상승하며지난달까지의하락세에서반전하였음. 소매판매액지수및소비자심리지수 ( 전년동기대비, %) ( 기준 =1) 소매판매액지수 ( 좌 ) 소비자심리지수 ( 우 ) 92 4

9 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 설비투자: 기계류가양호한증가세를지속하는가운데, 반도체관련선행지표는둔화 되는모습 9 월중설비투자지수는기계류와운송장비의증가폭이확대되면서전월(12.5%) 보다 상승한전년동월대비 25.2% 의증가율을기록 설비투자지수 ( 전년동월대비, %): ( 17년 7 월) 24.9 (8 월) 12.5 (9 월) 25.2 기계류( 전년동월대비, %): ( 17년 7 월) 32.5 (8 월) 14.8 (9 월) 3.3 운송장비( 전년동월대비, %): ( 17년 7 월) 7.2 (8 월) 6.3 (9 월) 월중반도체제조용장비수입액은 7.4% 의증가율을기록하며양호한흐름을나 타내었으나, 설비투자관련선행지표인특수산업용기계수주액증가율은감소하는모습 반도체제조용장비수입액 ( 전년동월대비, %): ( 17년 8 월) 51.2 (9 월) (1 월) 7.4 특수산업용기계수주액( 전년동월대비, %): ( 17년 7 월) 47.7 (8 월) 7. (9 월) 7.3 설비투자지수 (3MA) 및반도체설비투자관련지표(3MA) 4 ( 전년동기대비, %, 3개월이동평균 ) 설비투자지수 ( 좌, 3MA) 특수산업용기계수주액 ( 우, 3MA) 반도체제조용장비수입액 ( 우, 3MA) -12 5

10 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 건설투자: 건설기성증가율이일시적으로상승하였으나건축착공면적이주택을중심 으로둔화되는등향후건설투자는다소조정될것으로예상됨. 9 월중건설기성( 불변) 은건축부문증가폭이확대되고토목부문감소폭이축소되어 전월(8.3%) 보다높은 16.1% 증가하였으나대부분기저효과에기인한것으로판단됨. 공종별로는기저효과등으로건축부문이전월(18.7%) 보다높은 25.% 의증가율을기록 하였고, 토목부문은전월(-17.4%) 보다하락폭이축소되면서 4.8% 감소함. 계절조정전월대비로는토목부문이.2% 상승하였으나건축부문이 2.9% 하락하면서전월 (-1.7%) 에이어 2.2% 하락함. 건설수주( 경상) 는건축부문이소폭증가하였으나토목부문의감소세가지속되면서전 월(-4.6%) 에이어.8% 하락함. 공종별로는주택(-14.7%) 이부진하였으나공장및창고(147.2%) 수주가증가하면서건 축수주가 2.% 상승하였으나, 토목부문은전월(-15.%) 에이어감소세가지속되면서 -14.7% 의증가율을기록함. 건축허가면적은기저효과등으로상승하였으나건축착공면적은주거용의감소세가지속 되는모습 건축허가면적은기저효과및하반기분양증가로전월(-1.%) 의하락에서크게반등한 41.5% 의증가율을기록하였으나, 건축착공면적은상업용(37.1%) 의큰폭의증가에도 불구하고주거용(-22.5%) 의감소세가지속되면서.2% 증가하는데그침. 건설기성액 (3MA) 과국내건설수주액 (3MA) ( 전년동기대비, %, 3 개월이동평균 ) 건설기성액 ( 좌, 3MA) 건설수주액 ( 우, 3MA) 6

11 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 수출: 1 월중수출은증가폭이크게축소되었으나조업일수(-5 일) 감소를고려하면 반도체경기등에기인한최근의증가세를이어가고있는것으로판단됨. 1 월중수출액은전월(35.%) 보다축소된 7.1% 의증가율을기록하였으나조업일수의 감소가고려된일평균수출액은전월(19.4%) 보다개선된 33.9% 의증가율을기록 9~1월합산기준으로도수출액은전년동기간대비 2.9% 증가하여 8 월(17.3%) 보다소폭 증가하였고, 일평균수출액도 26.1% 증가하며 8 월(17.3%) 보다확대됨. 품목별로반도체(69.6%), 철강(4.5%) 등은증가세를유지하였지만무선통신기기 (-29.%), 자동차부품(-28.4%) 은계속부진한모습 9 월중수출물량지수는반도체(32.6%) 를중심으로전월(8.5%) 보다오른 19.8% 의증가 율을기록하며개선되고있는모습 * 수출물량지수 ( 전년동기대비, %): ( 17. 2/4) 2.8 (7 월).1 (8 월) 8.5 (9 월) 19.8 한편, 세계교역량과 OECD 선행지수가완만한상승세를유지하는등 1월의대외수출 여건은전반적으로양호한흐름 수입은자본재가감소로전환되면서 9 월(22.6%) 보다낮은 7.6% 증가에그침. 주요에너지자원을중심으로 1차산품이 23.6% 증가하였으나, 자본재는전월(47.2%) 보다 크게낮은 5.1% 의증가율을기록 무역수지는전년동월(69.3 억달러) 보다소폭증가하여 72.8억달러의흑자를기록 총수출(3MA) 과수출물량지수 (3MA) 3 ( 전년동기대비, %, 3 개월이동평균 ) 총수출 (3MA) 수출물량지수 (3MA) 7

12 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 9 월중국제수지 경상수지는상품수지의증가에주로기인하여전년동월 (8.7 억달러) 보다크게확대 된 122.1억달러의흑자를기록 상품수지는수출(25.5%) 이수입(2.5%) 보다큰폭으로증가함에따라전년동월 (16.6 억달러) 보다흑자폭이확대된 15.1억달러의흑자를기록 서비스수지는가공서비스수지 (-5.7억달러 -7.7 억달러) 와여행수지(-1.9 억달러 억달러) 의적자폭이확대되면서전년동월(-25.8 억달러) 보다확대된 29억달러를 기록 본원소득수지는배당소득증가등에기인하여전년동월(7.8 억달러) 보다확대된 11.5 억달러의흑자를기록하였고, 이전소득수지는전년동월(-7.9 억달러) 보다적자폭이다소 확대되어 1.6억달러를기록 계절조정경상수지(3MA) 와교역조건(3MA) 15 ( 억달러, 3 개월이동평균 ) ( 전년동기대비, %, 3 개월이동평균 ) 계절조정경상수지 ( 좌, 3MA) 교역조건 ( 우, 3MA) 금융계정은전월(91.3 억달러) 보다확대된 127.5억달러의순자산증가를기록 직접투자는내국인의해외투자증가폭이확대되면서전월(15.8 억달러) 보다확대된 22.8 억달러를기록 증권투자는외국인의국내투자감소폭이축소되어전월(114.6 억달러) 보다는다소낮은 13.5 억달러증가를기록하였으나여전히높은수준 기타투자는전월(-41.9 억달러) 의순자산감소에서다시 8.6억달러증가로전환 8

13 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 노동시장 : 건설업에서취업자증가폭이회복되었지만고용개선속도는여전히완만한 것으로판단됨. 9월중취업자는전년동월대비 31.4 만명(1.2%) 증가하여전월(21.2 만명,.8%) 보다 증가폭이확대됨. 산업별로는제조업(2.5만명 2. 만명) 과서비스업(14. 만명 16.4 만명) 은전월과유사한 증가폭을기록한가운데, 건설업(3.4만명 1.8 만명) 에서기상여건과관련된일시적요 인이사라지면서증가폭이크게확대됨. 종사상지위별로는상용직(46. 만명 37.5 만명) 의증가폭과임시 일용직 (-2.4만명 -5.7 만명) 의감소폭이크게축소되는가운데, 자영업자(-.3 만명 4.5 만명) 도감소에서증 가로전환되면서최근의고용의질개선세가주춤하는모습 계절조정경제활동참가율 (63.% 63.1%) 은전월대비.1%p 상승하였으며, 계절 조정고용률은전월대비.1%p 상승한 6.7% 를기록 계절조정실업률은 3.7% 로, 전월대비.1%p 하락함. 15~64세의계절조정고용률은 66.7% 로, 전월대비.2%p 상승함. 주요산업별취업자증감 6 ( 전년동월대비, 천명 ) 전산업서비스업제조업건설업 9

14 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 물가: 1월중소비자물가는지난해의한시적인전기료인하에따른기저효과가사라 짐에따라전월(2.1%) 에비해소폭낮은전년동월대비 1.8% 의상승률을기록 상품물가는전기 수도 가스가격이하락으로전환되고농축수산물가격의상승세가 둔화되며전월(2.4%) 보다하락한 1.5% 의상승률을기록 전기 수도 가스는지난해 3/4분기의한시적전기료인하에따른기저효과가 1월들어 소멸됨에따라전월(8.%) 의상승에서 1.6% 하락으로전환 농축수산물가격은과실등농산물가격 (5.2% 2.3%) 의상승폭이축소됨에따라전월 (4.8%) 보다낮은 3.% 상승 공업제품가격은석유류가격 (6.1% 8.2%) 의상승폭확대가지속되며전월(1.2%) 보다 상승한 1.5% 의상승률을기록 서비스물가는해외단체여행비를중심으로전월(1.8%) 보다높은 2.% 의상승률을 보임. 농산물및석유류제외근원물가는전월(1.6%) 보다낮은전년동월대비 1.3% 의 상승률을기록 아파트매매가격은전월과동일한전월대비.1% 상승한반면, 아파트전세가격은 전월(.1%) 보다하락한전월대비.% 의상승률을기록 소비자물가추이및부문별기여도 4 3 ( 전년동기대비, %, %p) 농축수산물공업제품서비스 전기 수도 가스소비자물가근원물가 주: 부문별. 기여도의합은반올림으로총지수의증감률과일치하지않을수있음 1

15 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 금융시장: 금리가비교적큰폭으로상승하였으나주가와환율은안정된모습 기준금리인상가능성이커지고미국국채금리가상승하면서 3 년물) 는전월말대비 27bp 상승하여연중최고치인 2.16% 를기록 1월말국고채금리 국고채금리(3 년물월말기준, %): ( 16년 1 월) 1.44 ( 17년 8 월) 1.75 (9 월) 1.89 (1 월) 2.16 국고채금리(3 년) 일간변동폭( 월평균, bp): ( 16년 1 월) 1.5 ( 17년 8 월) 1.4 (9 월) 1.2 (1 월) 3.4 전기전자업종을중심으로기업실적이개선되고한중관계정상화에대한기대감이 반영되면서, 종합주가지수 (2,523.4) 는 5.4% 상승하였고 1 월말원/ 달러환율(1,12.4 원) 은 2.2% 하락 한편, 9월중전금융권의가계대출은 6.2 조원증가하여전월(8.8 조원) 대비증가폭이 축소 전금융권가계대출( 기간중증가액, 조원): ( 16년 9 월) 1.2 ( 17년 (8 월) 8.7 (9 월) 월) 9.5 금리및주가 2.4 (%) 2, , , , 국고채 3 년 ( 좌 ) KOSPI( 우 ) 1,8 11

16 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 세계경제: 선진국의통화긴축우려와정치적불확실성이지속되고있으나, 선진국을 중심으로세계경제의회복세가완만하게확대되고있음. 세계경제는산업생산과교역량등실물지표가개선추세를유지하고선행지수도상 승세를지속하고있어경기회복에대한기대가점증 세계산업생산과교역량세계제조업심리지수와 OECD+NME 선행지수 6 ( 전년동기대비, %, 3 개월이동평균 ) 54 ( 기준 =5) ( 기준 =1) 세계산업생산 세계교역량 세계 PMI( 좌 ) OECD+NME 선행지수 ( 우 ) 선진국경제는소비와투자등내수주도의회복세가점차강화되고있으며, 신흥국의 경우에도대외수요확대와원자재가격의안정으로수출과생산증가세가지속 주요선진국의제조업심리지수 주요신흥국의수출 65 ( 기준 =5) 4 ( 전년동기대비, %, 3 개월이동평균 ) 미국 ISM 제조업 유로존제조업 PMI 중국러시아브라질 12

17 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 미국경제는주택건설등일부지표가부진한상황이나, 민간소비와재고증가등에 기인하여높은성장세가지속되고기업및소비심리지표도개선 민간소비(2.4%) 와설비투자(8.6%) 증가세가지속되고재고투자(.7%p) 도확대된것으로 나타나면서 3/4분기성장률은전분기와유사한 3.%( 전기대비연율) 를기록 미국의민간소비와설비투자 미국의실업률과소비자심리지수 6 ( 전기대비연율, %) (%) ( 기준 =1, 3개월이동평균 ) IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III 민간소비 ( 좌 ) 설비투자 ( 우 ) 실업률 ( 좌 ) 소비자심리지수 ( 우 ) 유로존경제는완화적통화정책과대내외수요확대로생산과소비, 수출등대부분의 지표가증가세를유지하면서회복세가지속되는추세 한편, 실물경기가견실한회복세를보이고있으나정치적불안, 저물가등이반영되어양적 완화축소는당초예상했던것보다완만하게진행될전망 5 유로존의산업생산과소매판매 ( 전년동기대비, %) 유로존의수출과소비자물가 ( 전년동기대비, %, 3개월이동평균 ) ( 전년동기대비, %) 산업생산 소매판매 수출 ( 좌 ) 소비자물가 ( 우 ) 13

18 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 일본경제는가계소비가양호한흐름을보인가운데수출도비교적높은증가세를유지 하는등실물경기전반이완만하게개선됨. 9월중에도 2.2% 소매판매및수출은각각자동차판매와중국등신흥국을중심으로 14.1% 의증가율을기록한가운데, 경기관련선행지표와심리지수도상승세를지속 와 일본의산업생산과소매판매 일본의수출과경기선행지수 9 ( 전년동기대비, %) 4 ( 전년동기대비, %) (21 년 =1) 산업생산 소매판매 수출 ( 좌 ) 경기선행지수 ( 우 ) 중국경제는생산및소비관련지표와수출이확대되어목표수준을상회하는성장 세를유지함에따라경기둔화우려는크게줄어든것으로평가 9 월중고정자산투자 (7.5%) 의증가세가소폭둔화되었으나, 소매판매와수출이각각 1.3% 및 8.1% 확대됨에따라 3/4분기에도중국경제는 6.8% 의높은성장률을기록 14 중국의산업생산및소매판매 ( 전년동기대비, %) 중국의고정자산투자와제조업심리지수 ( 전년동기대비, %) ( 기준 =5) 산업생산 소매판매 고정자산투자 ( 좌 ) 제조업 PMI( 우 ) 14

19 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 1 월중, 유가는원유수요전망치가상향조정되고산유국의감산연장기대 학적위험확대에따른일부지역의수출감소등의영향으로배럴당 으로상승 지정 5달러중후반 곡물가격의하락에도불구하고국제유가와대부분의비철금속가격이상승함에따라 CRB 지수를비롯한주요상품가격지수는전월에이어상승세를지속하고있음. ( 달러 / 배럴 ) 7 유가와 CRB지수주요원자재가격 (1967=1) 21 2 ( 전월대비, %) Dubai( 좌 ) CRB( 우 ) 15-1 소맥 주석 납 옥수수 알루미늄 아연 구리 Dubai 니켈 주: 217년 9월말대비 1 월말기준. 그러나주요전망기관들은국제유가가 218년에소폭상승하여연평균 5달러초중반 수준을기록할것으로전망 지난 9월이후유가가비교적큰폭으로상승하면서유가전망치도소폭이나마상향조정 되는추세를보이고있음. 다만, 미국의셰일가스생산확대와달러화강세가능성등유가상승을제약할수있는 요인이상존하는만큼최근의유가상승세는제한적인범위에머무를것으로판단됨. 216 년평균 217 년평균 유가전망 (EIA) 218 년 ( 달러/ 배럴) 1/4 2/4 3/4 4/4 평균 WTI Brent 자료 : US Energy Information Administration. 15

20 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 국제금융시장 : 선진국의통화긴축우려에도불구하고미국 중국등주요핵심국가의 실물지표개선으로국제금융시장은전반적으로안정적 미국의성장세가지속되고추가금리인상가능성도높아지면서장기금리가상승하고 달러화의가치도주요국통화대비상승한것으로나타남. 주요국장기금리 달러화대비주요국의통화절상률 3. (%) 4 (%) 미국독일일본 -8 터키 멕시코 남아공 브라질 영국 유로존 러시아 인도네시아 일본 싱가포르 말레이시아 중국 인도 한국 주: 217년 9월말대비 1 월말기준. 이와함께세계경제의회복세가확대되고기업경기및투자심리가양호한흐름을유지 하면서각국의주가지수가상승하고변동성지수는낮은수준에머물러있음. 주요국의주가변화율 VIX지수와신흥시장채권지수 9 (%) 러시아 브라질 중국 인도네시아 유로존 미국 대만 한국 인도 일본 VIX( 좌 ) 신흥시장채권스프레드 ( 우 ) 3 주: 217년 9월말대비 1 월말기준. 16

21 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 전문가경제전망설문조사(217 년 4/4 분기) 국내경제전문가들은우리경제가 217년에회복세가확대되면서 3.1% 의 성장률을기록한후, 218년에는 2.8% 의완만한성장세를보일것으로 전망 217년의경제성장률전망치가지난 7월에비해.2% 상향조정되었으 며, 218년의경우당초예상했던수준의회복세를보일것으로전망 수출( 금액기준) 은세계경제의회복세가완만하게확대되면서 217년에 1% 대중반의높은증가세를보인후, 218년에는 8% 내외로둔화될 전망 218년의연간경상수지흑자규모는 217년보다축소된 7억달러내외를 기록할것으로예상 소비자물가는 217년에 2% 초반의상승률을기록하고, 218년에는 1% 후반으로소폭낮아질전망 217~18 년우리경제에대한전문가설문조사결과 (%, 억달러, 만명) 조사시점 1) GDP 수출 2) 경상수지실업률취업자수 3) 소비자물가 217 년 1/4분기 년 2/4분기 217 년 3/4분기 217 년 4/4분기 2.6 [2.7] 2.9 [2.8] 3.1 [2.8] 9. [5.7] 11.8 [6.5] 17. [8.4] 816 [724] 782 [738] 777 [79] 3.9 [3.7] 3.8 [3.7] 3.7 [3.7] 31 [31] 35 [34] 33 [33] 주: 1) 국내경제전망전문가를대상으로각각금년 1 월, 4 월, 7 월, 1 월말에설문조사를실시함. 2) 통관기준자료. 3) 전년동기대비증감. 4) [ ] 안은 218 년전망치. 2. [1.9] 1.9 [1.9] 2.1 [1.9] 17

22 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 Summary and Assessment The Korean economy continued to improve driven by exports and the manufacturing industry. Domestic demand exhibited a slight increase led by consumption. Overseas demand remained favorable and manufacturing production soared temporarily led by semiconductors due to seasonal factors. Most exports recorded high growth rates as the global recovery becomes more evident. Manufacturing production growth in September posted high figures on increased workdays and early production due to the long upcoming holidays. Meanwhile, investment conditions remained positive while consumption improved slightly from the past relative sluggishness. In September, relevant leading indicators were subdued somewhat but the equipment investment index and value of construction completed posted a higher growth than last month, indicating a continuance of the favorable trend of late. Increases were in seen the CCSI, retail sales growth led by durable goods and consumption-related services production index. All growth figures are on a year-on-year basis unless otherwise noted. This document is an English translation of the original Korean version; the Korean version takes precedence in case of any ambiguities or discrepancies. 18

23 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 Economic Activity: Mining and manufacturing production and shipments exhibited sharp increases in growth, but the pace of economic improvement appears modest considering temporary factors such as the Chuseok holidays in October. September's all industry production recorded a 7.4% growth, up from last month (2.5%). Production growth in mining and manufacturing recorded 8.4%, up from last month (2.3%), influenced by increased workdays (2.5 days) and last year s labor strikes. Services production growth recorded 5.4%, up from last month (2.1%) led by increased growth in wholesale and retail trade (.5% 6.6%) and transport (.9% 6.5%) due to the Chuseok holidays in October and base effect. Meanwhile, the manufacturing capacity utilization rate recorded 71.8%, slightly down from last month (72.%). Mining and Manufacturing Production (3MA) and Service Production Index (3MA) 6 (Year-onYear, % Change, 3MA) Mining and Manufacturing Production Index (3MA) Service Production Index (3MA) Manufacturing shipments recorded a high growth of 8.5% while the manufacturing inventory-to-shipments ratio inched down from last month. Manufacturing shipments exhibited a surge in growth as domestic shipments (9.2%) ascended and export shipments (7.7%) expanded significantly due to the upcoming long holidays. However, its seasonally adjusted MoM growth retreated.2%. The manufacturing inventory-to-shipments ratio stood at 119.2%, marginally down from last month (121.2%) as inventory rose slightly led by motor vehicles (14.2%). But, shipments have improved. 19

24 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 Shipment Index (3MA) and Inventory-Shipment Ratio 6 (Year-on-Year % Change, 3MA) (%) Manufacturing Shipment Index (left, 3MA) Manufacturing Inventory-Shipment Ratio (right) The cyclical component of the coincident composite index registered 1.9, slightly up from last month (1.8) as the value of construction completed receded but the indices for services production and retail sales advanced. The cyclical component of the leading composite index registered 11.6, down by.2p from last month, as the indices for domestic machinery shipment and consumer expectation ebbed. Cyclical Component of Composite Economic Indices 12. (Base=1) Cyclical Component of Coincident Index Cyclical Component of Leading Index 2

25 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 Consumption: Retail sales and services production exhibited increased growth and the CCSI advanced. September's retail sales index recorded a sharply increased growth of 8.3% from last month (.9%). Durable goods recorded a 2.8% growth led by communication devices and computers (26.%), boosting the increase in retail sales growth while non- and semi-durable goods ascended 4.3% and 2.3%, respectively. On a seasonally adjusted MoM basis, the index swung to a 3.1% increase from last month s decrease (-.9%). Services production exhibited some improvement driven by sectors closely related to private consumption. Wholesale and retail trade closely tied to private consumption recorded a 6.6% growth, far exceeding last month s increase (.5%) while accommodation and food services recorded a 2.4% growth, escaping the downward trend from 3Q 216. However, the pace of improvement in services consumption is expected to be relatively modest considering that the fast increase in services production has been partially driven by the base effect. October s composite consumer sentiment index (CCSI) turned to an increase of 1.5p from last month on expectations of an economic recovery. The CCSI posted gains led by current (87 91) and prospective domestic economic conditions (96 99), rebounding from last month s downward trajectory. Retail Sales Index and Composite Consumer Sentiment Index 1 (Year-on-Year % Change) (Base=1) Retail Sales Index (left) Composite Consumer Sentiment Index (right) 21

26 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 Facilities Investment: Machinery maintained a favorable upward trend while leading indicators related to semiconductors moderated. September s equipment investment index recorded an increase of 25.2% from last month (12.5%) influenced by the increased growth in machinery and transport equipment. Equipment investment index (YoY, %): (Jul. 17) 24.9 (Aug.) 12.5 (Sep.) 25.2 Machinery (YoY, %): (Jul. 17) 32.5 (Aug.) 14.8 (Sep.) 3.3 Transport equipment (YoY, %): (Jul. 17) 7.2 (Aug.) 6.3 (Sep.) 11.5 October s imports (amount) of semiconductor manufacturing equipment recorded a 7.4% growth, continuing the upward trend while the growth in special industrial machinery orders received (amount)-the leading indicator related to facilities investment showed a decline. Imports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment (YoY, %): (Aug. 17) 51.2 (Sep.) (Oct.) 7.4 Special industrial machinery orders received (YoY, %): (Jul. 17) 47.7 (Sug.) 7. (Sep.) 7.3 Equipment Investment Index (3MA) and Indexes Related to Semiconductor Facility Investment (3MA) 4 (Year-on-Year % Change, 3MA) Equip. Investment Index(left, 3MA) Special Machinery Order Received(right, 3MA) Semicon. Manufac. Equip.(right, 3MA)

27 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 Construction Investment: The value of construction completed exhibited a temporary increase in growth. The floor area started showed a reduction mainly in houses, implying that construction investment is expected to be somewhat adjusted in the future. As the building construction sector exhibited an increased growth and the civil engineering showed a decreased growth, September s value of construction completed (constant) grew 16.1% from last month (8.3%), but the growth was mostly due to the base effect. By sector, building construction recorded an increased growth of 25.% from last month (18.7%) due to the base effect while civil engineering exhibited a smaller decline (-4.8%) than last month (-17.4%). On a seasonally adjusted MoM basis, the value of construction completed receded 2.2% continuing last month s trend (-1.7%) as civil engineering advanced.2% and building construction decreased 2.9%. Construction orders received (current) exhibited a continued slump (.8%) from last month (-4.6%) as building construction inched up and civil engineering continued to trend down. By sector, building construction climbed 2.% on increased orders for factories and warehouses (147.2%) despite the decreased order for residential housing while civil engineering continued the downward trend (-14.7%) from last month (-15.%). Floor area permitted increased on the base effect but floor area started exhibited a continued decrease in residential space. Floor area permitted exhibited a sharp rebound from last month (-1.%) to a 41.5% growth thanks to the base effect and increase pre-sale houses in the second half. Floor area started increased merely.2% as that for commercial space soared (37.1%) but that for residential space continued to decrease (-22.5%) Value of Construction Completed (3MA) and Construction Ordered Received (3MA) (Year-on-Year % Change, 3MA) Value of Construction Completed (left, 3MA) Construction Orders Received (right, 3MA) 23

28 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 Exports: October posted a sharp decline in export growth, but with the reduced workdays (5 days), the recent increase driven by semiconductors business is considered to have continued. October s exports (amount) recorded a decreased 7.1% growth from last month (35.%) but average daily exports, after being adjusted for fewer workdays, recorded an increased 33.9% growth from last month (19.4%). Total exports from September through October increased 2.9% YoY, slightly higher than August s YoY growth (17.3%), and the average daily exports enhanced 26.1% from August (17.3%). By item, semiconductors (69.6%) and steel (4.5%) maintained the upward trend while wireless communication devices (-29.%) and motor parts (-28.4%) remained stagnant. September s export volume index recorded a 19.8% growth, improving from last month (8.5%) led by semiconductors (32.6%). * Export volume index (MoM,%): (2Q 17) 2.8 (Jul.).1 (Aug.) 8.5 (Sep.) 19.8 The world trade volume and OECD leading indicators maintained modest growth, implying that conditions for overseas exports stayed favorable in October. Imports recorded a decreased 7.6% growth from September (22.6%) as capital goods imports swung to a decrease. By stage-of-processing, primary products, mostly energy resources advanced 23.6% while capital goods recorded a sharply decreased growth ( 5.1%) from last month (47.2%). Trade balance ran a slightly increased surplus of $7.28 billion from a year ago ($6.93 billion). Exports (3MA) and Export Volume Indexes(3MA) 3 (Year-on-Year % Change, 3MA ) Exports (3MA) Export Volume Indexes (3MA) 24

29 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 September s Balance of Payments The current account recorded a significantly increased surplus of $12.21 billion from last year ($8.7 billion), led by the increase in the goods account. The goods account recorded an increased surplus of $15.1 billion from last year ($1.66 billion) as exports (25.5%) outgrew imports (2.5%). The services account recorded an increased deficit (-$2.9 billion) from last year (-$2.58 billion), influenced by increased deficits in the processing services account (-$.57 billion -$.77 billion) and travel account (-$1.9 billion -$1.31 billion). The primary income account recorded an increased surplus of $1.15 from last year ($.78 billion) due to a rise in dividend payments while the secondary income account recorded an increased deficit of $1.6 billion from last year (-$.79 billion). Seasonally Adjusted Current Account (3MA) and Terms of Trade (3MA) 15 (Hundred Million US Dollars, 3MA) (Year-on-Year % Change, 3MA) S.A. Current Account (left, 3MA) Terms of Trade (right, 3MA) The financial account recorded a $12.75 billion increase in net assets, up from last month ($9.13 billion). Direct investment marked $2.28 billion, up from last month ($1.58 billion) on an increase in outbound investments. Portfolio investment marked $1.35 billion, which slipped from last month ($11.46 billion) on a decline in inbound investments but still maintained a high level. Other investments marked $.86 billion, a reversal from last month s decrease (-$4.19 billion). 25

30 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 Labor Market: Employment growth in construction exhibited a recovery but the pace of improvement remains modest. September s employment growth posted 314, (1.2%), up from last month (212,,.8%). By industry, manufacturing (25, 2,) and services (14, 164,) exhibited a similar growth to last month while construction (34, 18,) posted a sharply increased growth due to a disappearance of temporary weather factors. By occupational status, regular workers (46, 375,) and temporary and daily workers (-24, -57,) exhibited a sharply reduced decline while the self-employed (-3, 45,) took an upward swing, indicating a somewhat stalled improvement in the quality of employment conditions. On a seasonally adjusted MoM basis, the labor force participation rate edged up by.1%p to 63.1% and employment rate by.1%p to 6.7%. The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate recorded 3.7%, down by.1%p from last month. The seasonally adjusted employment rate of those aged recorded 66.7%, up by.2%p from last month. Changes in the Number of Employed Persons by sectors 6 (Year-on-Year Change, Thousand Persons) All sectors Serveice sector Manufacturing sector Construction sector 26

31 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 CPI: October s headline CPI inflation stood at 1.8%, slightly down from last month (2.1%), influenced by the waning of the base effect of the temporary cut in electricity fees in last year. Commodity prices recorded a 1.5% growth, down from last month (2.4%) as utility fees (water, electricity and gas) turned to a decrease and prices of agricultural, livestock and fishery products slowed down. Utility fees (water, electricity and gas) turned to a decrease (1.6%) from last month s increase (8.%) as the base effect of the temporary cut in electricity fees in 3Q of last quarter started to diminish in October. Prices of agricultural, livestock and fishery products rose 3.%, lower than last month (4.8%) on the reduced growth in the prices of agricultural products (5.2% 2.3%) such as fruits. Industrial goods prices rose 1.5%, higher than last month (1.2%) as prices of petroleum products continued to accelerate (6.1% 8.2%). Services prices rose 2.%, higher than last month (1.8%) led by overseas group tour costs. Core inflation, excluding agricultural and petroleum products, rose 1.3%, lower than last month (1.6%). Prices of apartment purchases rose.1%, the same as last month, while those of jeonse rose.%, lower than last month (.1%). CPI Change and Contribution by Sector 4 3 Agricultural Service CPI (Year-on-Year % Change, %p) Manufacturing Electricity, water, and gas Core CPI Note: The sum of sector-by-sector contributions is rounded off to the nearest integer, which may be inconsistent with the growth rate of the total index. 27

32 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 Financial Market: Interest rates rose quite steeply but stock prices and FX remained stable. As of end-october, government bond yields (3-year maturity) recorded an annual high of 2.16%, up by 27bp from a month ago as the hike in the base rate becomes increasingly likely and the US treasury bond interest rate ascended. Government bond yields (3-year maturity, %): (Oct. 16) 1.44 (Aug. 17) 1.75 (Sep.) 1.89 (Oct.) 2.16 Daily change in government bond yields (3-year) (daily average, bp) : (Oct. 16) 1.5 (Aug. 17) 1.4 (Sep.) 1.2 (Oct.) 3.4 With the improved earnings in the electric and electronic industry and expected normalization of China-Korea relations, KOSPI gained 5.4% to close at 2,523.4 and the dollar/won exchange rate dropped 2.2% to record 1,12.4 won as of late October. September posted an increase of 6.2 trillion won in household loans from all financial sectors, a drop from last month (8.8 trillion won). Household loans from all financial sectors (change, trillion won): (Sep. 16) 1.2 (Jul. 17) 9.5 (Aug.) 8.7 (Sep.) year Treasury Bond and Stock Price Index 2.4 (%) 2, , , , ,8 3-year Treasury Bond (left) KOSPI (right) 28

33 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 World Economy: The global recovery is gradually strengthening led by advanced economies although concerns persist over political uncertainties and their monetary tightening. Real indicators such as industrial production and trade volume maintained a favorable upward trend and leading indicators continued to rise, heightening expectations of an economic recovery. 6 World Industrial Production and Trade (Year-on-Year % Change, 3MA) World PMI and OECD+NME Leading Indicator (Base=5) (Base=1) World Industrial Production World Trade World PMI (left) OECD+NME Leading Indicator (right) Advanced economies are recovering gradually driven by domestic demand including consumption and investment while emerging markets maintained the upward trend in most indicators such as exports and production owing to increased overseas demand and stable raw material prices. 65 Manufacturing Indices in the US and Eurozone (Base=5) 4 Exports in China, Russia, and Brazil (Year-on-Year % Change, 3MA) US ISM Eurozone PMI China Russia Brazil 29

34 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 The US maintained high growth thanks to increases in private consumption and inventory and indicators for corporate and consumption sentiment improved, although a few indicators including housing construction stagnated. 3Q growth was recorded at 3.% (annualized YoY basis), similar to the 2Q as private consumption (2.4%) and facilities investment (8.6%) continued the upward trend and inventory investment ascended (.7%p). 6 US Private Consumption and Equipment Investment (QoQ annualized rate, %) (%) US Unemployment Rate and Consumer Sentiment (Base=1, 3MA) IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III 214 Private Consumption (left) Equipment Investment (right) Unemployment Rate (left) Consumer Sentiment (right) The Eurozone showed signs of a continued recovery with the maintained increases in most indicators such as production, consumption and exports resulting from quantitative monetary easing and strong overseas and domestic demand at home and aborad. The real economy maintained a favorable recovery but given the political instability and low inflation, the unwinding of quantitative easing is going to be more gentle than initially anticipated. 5 Industrial Production and Retail Sales in Eurozone (Year-on-Year % Change) Exports and CPI in Eurozone (Year-on-Year % Change, 3MA) (Year-on-Year % Change) Industrial Production Retail Sales Exports (left) CPI (right) 3

35 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 Japan exhibited gradual improvements in the real economy while maintaining relatively high growth in exports amid favorable conditions in household consumption. September posted increases in retail sales (2.2%) and exports (14.1%) thanks to motor vehicles and exports to emerging markets like China while leading and sentiment indicators continued to trend up. 9 Japan's Industrial Production and Retail Sales (Year-on-Year % Change) Japan's Exports and Leading Index (Year-on-Year % Change) (21=1) Industrial Production Retail Sales Exports (left) Leading Index (right) China maintained a higher-than-targeted growth rate thanks to improvements in production and consumption-related indicators and increase in exports, hinting at diminishing concerns about an economic slowdown. 3Q growth reached a high of 6.8% as in September fixed asset investment (7.5%) inched down but retail sales and exports grew 1.3% and 8.1%, respectively. 14 China's Industrial Production and Retail Sales (Year-on-Year % Change) China's Fixed Asset Investment and Manufacturing PMI (Year-on-Year % Change) (Base=5) Industrial Production Retail Sales Fixed Asset Investment (left) Manufacturing PMI (right) 31

36 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 In October, oil prices rose to the mid-$5 level per barrel influenced by the upwardly revised projection for crude oil demand, the increased expectation for output cut extension in oil producing countries and the reduced exports in a few countries due to geopolitical risks. Major commodity price indices including the CRB index continued to trend up from last month as grain prices dropped but oil prices and most non-ferrous metal prices ascended. Oil Price and CRB Index ($/barrel) (1967=1) Prices of Key Raw Materials (Month-on-Month % Change) Dubai (left) CRB (right) 15-1 Wheat Tin Lead Corn Aluminum Zinc Copper Dubai Nickel Note: As of end-oct. compared to end-sep. However, major forecasting institutes projected that oil prices will rise marginally and reach a low to mid-$5 level per barrel during 218. Oil prices picked up quite sharply since September and thus, projections are being upwardly revised to a small degree. Meanwhile, given lingering factors that could put downward pressure on oil prices such as the US shale gas boom and a strengthening of the dollar, oil prices are projected to show a limited increase. 216 Average 217 Average Oil Price Outlook (EIA) 218 (Barrel per $) 1/4 2/4 3/4 4/4 Average WTI Brent Source: US Energy Information Administration. 32

37 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 Global Financial Markets: The global financial markets remained stable on improvements in real indicators in major countries such as the US and China despite concerns over monetary tightening in advanced economies. Long-term interest rates in major countries climbed and the dollar strengthened against major currencies as the US continued to grow and an additional rate hike becomes highly likely. 3. Long-Term Interest Rates in the US, Germany, and Japan (%) 4 Major Currency Revaluation Rates against USD (%) US Germany Japan -8 Turkey Mexico South Africa Brazil UK Eurozone Russia Indonesia Japan Singapore Malaysia China India Korea Note: As of end-oct. compared to end-sep. As the global recovery becomes stronger and business and investment sentiment sustained favorable conditions, stock prices moved up and VIX remained low. 9 Changes in Stock Prices (%) VIX and Emerging Market Bond Index Russia Brazil China Indonesia Eurozone US Taiwan Korea India Japan VIX (left) EMBI (right) 3 Note: Note: As of end-oct. compared to end-sep. 33

38 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 KDI Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) (4th Quarter of 217) Domestic forecasters expect that the Korean economy will exhibit an accelerating recovery of 3.1% in 217 and grow at a modest pace of 2.8% in Q survey growth projection for 217 was upwardly revised by.2% from July and the projection for 218 remains unchanged. Exports (amount) are expected to grow rapidly at a mid-1% level in 217 amid the modest global recovery and then moderate slightly to the mid-8% level in 218. The current account for 218 is expected to run a reduced surplus of $7. billion from 217. Headline CPI is projected to stand at a low 2% level in 217 and slide to a high 1% level in 218. KDI Survey of Professional Forecasters 217~218 (%, $1 million, 1 thousand persons) Time of Survey 1) GDP Exports 2) Current Account Unemployment Rate Number of Employed 3) Headline CPI 1Q Q 217 3Q 217 4Q [2.7] 2.9 [2.8] 3.1 [2.8] 9. [5.7] 11.8 [6.5] 17. [8.4] 816 [724] 782 [738] 777 [79] 3.9 [3.7] 3.8 [3.7] 3.7 [3.7] 31 [31] 35 [34] 33 [33] 2. [1.9] 1.9 [1.9] 2.1 [1.9] Note: 1) Conducted surveys of domestic professional forecasters in late January, April, July and October ) Customs-cleared basis. 3) Year-on-year change. 4) Figures in [ ] are 218 estimates. 34

39 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 경제동향주요지표 Major Indicators of the Korean Economy

40 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 국내총생산및국내총소득 (21 년불변가격 ) 민간소비및고정투자(21 년불변가격) GDP and GDI Private Consumption and Fixed Investment (at 21 Constant Prices) (at 21 Constant Prices) 8 ( 전년동기대비,% / Year-on-Year % Change) 2 ( 전년동기대비,% / Year-on-Year % Change) Ⅳ Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ 1 Ⅳ Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ 민간소비 (Private Consumption) 설비투자 (Facilities Investment) 국내총생산 (GDP) 국내총소득 (GDI) 건설투자 (Construction Investment) 상품및서비스수출(21 년불변가격) 상품및서비스수입(21 년불변가격) Exports of Goods and Services Imports of Goods and Services (at 21 Constant Prices) (at 21 Constant Prices) 15 ( 전년동기대비,% / Year-on-Year % Change) 15 ( 전년동기대비,% / Year-on-Year % Change) Ⅳ Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ -5 Ⅳ Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ 상품수출 (Exports of Goods) 서비스수출 (Exports of Services) 상품수입 (Imports of Goods) 서비스수입 (Imports of Services) 36

41 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 1. 국내총생산(21 년불변가격) Gross Domestic Product (at 21 Constant Prices) GDP 민간소비 Private Consumption 설비투자 Facilities Investment 국내총생산 건설투자 Construction Investment 총수출 Total Export 총수입 Total Import ( 조원, Trillion Won) 국내총소득 Gross Domestic Income 213 1, , , , , , p 1, , Ⅳ Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ Ⅰ p Ⅱ p Ⅲ p Ⅳ p Ⅰ p Ⅱ p Ⅲ p 전년동기대비증가율 (%) Percentage Change from the Same Period of the Previous Year p Ⅳ 3.5(.9) 2.2(.7) 11.7( 3.7) 3.5(-2.4) 3.1(.9) 5.( 2.2) 4.3(.7) 214 Ⅰ 3.8( 1.) 2.8(.5) 7.5(-.8) 4.5( 3.4) 3.5(.9) 2.7(-1.2) 4.7( 1.2) Ⅱ 3.5(.6) 1.7(-.5) 8.( 1.6).3(.4) 2.8(.8) 2.( 1.) 3.7(.7) Ⅲ 3.4(.7) 1.4(.8) 4.3(.1) 2.3(-.1) 1.3(-1.2) 1.7(-.3) 3.(.2) Ⅳ 2.7(.4) 1.(.3) 4.2( 3.2) -1.7(-4.9).7(.2) -.4(.) 3.7( 1.6) 215 Ⅰ 2.6(.8) 1.5(.9) 5.4(.3) 4.( 9.) -.5(-.3).9(.1) 6.3( 3.6) Ⅱ 2.4(.4) 1.7(-.3) 4.3(.8) 4.6( 1.4) -1.4(-.2).4(.7) 6.5(.9) Ⅲ 3.( 1.3) 2.2( 1.3) 6.( 1.9) 7.6( 2.1) -.4(.1) 2.( 1.2) 7.2(.9) Ⅳ 3.2(.7) 3.4( 1.5) 3.1(.) 9.6(-2.2) 1.7( 2.1) 5.( 2.9) 6.3(.8) 216 Ⅰ p 2.9(.5) 2.3(-.1) -4.6(-7.) 9.( 7.6) 1.3(-.6) 3.4(-1.5) 5.7( 3.) Ⅱ p 3.4(.9) 3.5(.8) -2.9( 2.6) 1.6( 3.1) 2.6( 1.) 4.8( 2.2) 4.7(-.1) Ⅲ p 2.6(.5) 2.7(.6) -3.9(.9) 11.2( 2.2) 3.4( 1.) 6.5( 2.6) 3.3(-.5) Ⅳ p 2.4(.5) 1.5(.2) 2.( 5.9) 11.6(-1.2) 1.2(-.1) 3.3(-.1) 3.1(.8) 217 Ⅰ p 2.9( 1.1) 2.(.4) 14.4( 4.4) 11.3( 6.8) 3.9( 2.1) 9.9( 4.8) 2.6( 2.6) Ⅱ p 2.7(.6) 2.3( 1.) 17.3( 5.2) 8.(.3).(-2.9) 6.4(-1.) 2.9(.) Ⅲ p 3.6( 1.4) 2.4(.7) 16.8(.5) 7.5( 1.5) 5.( 6.1) 8.4( 4.5) 5.( 1.6) 주 : 1) p 는잠정치. 2) ( ) 는계절조정전기대비증가율. 자료 : 한국은행. Note: 1) p is preliminary. 2) Figures in parentheses indicate percentage changes from the previous period (S.A.). Source: Bank of Korea. 37

42 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 생산지수 Production Indices 출하지수및재고지수 Shipment and Inventory Indices 1 ( 전년동기대비, % / Year-on-Year % Change) 9 ( 전년동기대비, % / Year-on-Year % Change) 전산업생산지수 (All Industry Prod. Index) 광공업생산지수 (Mining and Manufac. Prod. Index) 서비스업생산지수 (Service Prod. Index) -9 출하지수 (Shipment Index) 재고지수 (Inventory Index) 경기종합지수순환변동치한국은행 BSI 제조업실적및전망(S.A.) Cyclical Component of Economic Indices BOK Business Survey Index (Seasonally Adjusted) 12 ( 기준 =1 / Base=1) 9 ( 기준 =1 / Base=1) 동행지수순환변동치 (Composite Coincident Index) 선행지수순환변동치 (Composite Leading Index) BSI 제조업실적 (BSI Manufac. Tendency) BSI 제조업전망 (BSI Manufac. Future Tendency) 38

43 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 2. 경기 Economic Activity 전산업 2) All Industry Production 생산지수 Production Indices 광공업 3) Mining and Manufacturing Production 서비스업 Service Production 생산자제품 Producer's Product 출하 Shipment 재고 Inventory 경기종합지수순환변동치 1) Cyclical Component of Economic Indices 동행지수 Composite Coincident Index 선행지수 Composite Leading Index ( 전년동기대비, % / Year-on-Year % Change) 한국은행 BSI 1) ( 제조업, 계절조정) BOK BSI (Manufacturing, S.A.) 실적 Tendency 전망 Future Tendency 제조업평균가동률 Capacity Utilization Rate (%) Ⅲ 2.5 ( 1.8).4 ( 1.8) 2.9 ( 1.2) 1.3 ( 2.1) 7.1 ( 3.2) Ⅳ 2.7 (.3).4 (-1.) 3.3 ( 1.2).4 (-.7) 3.3 (-6.) Ⅰ 2.1 (.2) -.3 (-.6) 2.8 (.2) -.8 (-1.6) 3.1 ( 3.6) Ⅱ 3.2 ( 1.3).7 ( 1.4) 3.5 ( 1.1) 1.2 ( 2.1) -2. (-2.3) Ⅲ 3. (.9).5 (.1) 3.6 ( 1.) -.1 (-.3) -7.8 (-3.2) Ⅳ 3.5 (.4) 2.8 (.6) 2.1 (-.3) 2.4 ( 1.2) -5.8 (-3.1) Ⅰ 3.9 ( 1.3) 3.7 ( 1.6) 2.6 (.9) 3.4 (.5) -5.6 ( 2.7) Ⅱ 2.7 (-.3).5 (-2.3) 2.3 (.6). (-2.) -1.7 ( 1.9) Ⅲ p 4. ( 1.3) 3.4 ( 1.5) 3.2 ( 1.4) 3.9 ( 2.1) 2.7 ( 1.3) (-.5) -2.7 (-.6) 2. (.5) -1.7 (-1.1) -.8 (-2.1) ( 1.8) 4.4 ( 3.5) 3.6 (.3) 3.8 ( 2.4).4 (.1) (.1).9 (-1.1) 4.9 (.4) 1.6 (-.3) -2. (-.4) (.5) 1.5 ( 1.1) 3.2 (.4).7 (.1) -4.9 (-2.8) (-.4) 2.2 (-2.3) 4.4 (.3) 1.7 (-1.6) -5.3 (.4) (.1) -2. (.7) 2.9 (-.3) -2.6 (.4) -7.8 (-.8) (-.6) -1.2 (-.9) 2. (-.5) -1.9 (-.6) -6.2 (.) ( 1.4) 5.4 ( 3.1) 2.6 (.3) 4.7 ( 2.8) -6.4 (-1.1) (.3) 4.3 (-.4) 1.9 (.5) 4.7 (.5) -5.8 (-2.) (.5) 1.3 ( 2.8) 2.6 (.2) 1.4 (.5) -5.8 ( 2.) (-.3) 6.7 (-3.3) 2.5 (.3) 7.3 (-2.5) -6. (.4) ( 1.3) 3.3 ( 1.3) 2.8 (.3) 1.8 ( 1.2) -5.6 (.3) (-1.) 1.9 (-2.2) 2.4 (.1).5 (-2.3) -.8 ( 2.9) (-.1).3 (.3) 2.3 (-.1) -.6 (-.3) 1.3 ( 2.6) (.) -.4 (-.4) 2.1 (.6).2 ( 2.) -1.7 (-3.5) p 2. ( 1.) -.3 ( 1.6) 2.3 (.6).6 (.7) 1.8 (.9) p 2.5 (-.1) 2.3 (.1) 2.1 (.1) 2.7 (.3) 3.5 ( 2.2) p 7.4 (.9) 8.4 (.1) 5.4 ( 1.3) 8.4 (-.4) 2.7 (-1.8) 주 : 1) 기준치=1. 2) 214~15 년연간지수는농림어업포함. 3) 광업, 제조업, 전기 가스업을포함. 4) p 는잠정치( 한국은행 BSI 제외). 5) ( ) 는계절조정전기대비증가율. 자료 : 통계청; 한국은행. Note: 1) Base=1. 2) Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries sectors is included for annual index in 214~15. 3) Mining & Manufacturing, Electricity & Gas Industry. 4) p is preliminary (BOK BSI are excluded). 5) Figures in parentheses indicate percentage changes from the previous period (S.A.). Source: Statistics Korea; Bank of Korea. 39

44 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 민간소비( 소비재) 와소매판매액지수유형별소매판매액지수 Private Consumption (Consumer Goods) and Retail Retail Sales Index by Group of Goods Sales Index 1 ( 전년동기대비, % / Year-on-Year % Change) 25 ( 전년동기대비, % / Year-on-Year % Change) 민간소비 ( 소비재 ) (Private Comsumption (Consumer Goods)) 소매판매액지수 (Retail Sales Index) 내구재 (Durable goods) 준내구재 (Semi-durable goods) 비내구재 (Non-durable goods) 소비재출하지수및소비재수입액 Consumer Goods Shipment Index and Consumer Goods Import 소비자동향조사 Consumer Survey 2 ( 전년동기대비, % / Year-on-Year % Change) 112 ( 기준 =1 / Base=1) 소비재출하 (Consumer Goods Shipment Index) 소비재수입 (Consumer Goods Import) 소비자심리지수 (Composite Consumer Sentiment Index) 소비지출전망 (Prospective Household Spending) 4

45 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 3. 소비 Consumption Retail Sales Index 소매판매액지수 유형별지수 by Group of Goods 비내구재준내구재 Non-durable Semidurable 내구재 Durable 승용차 Automobile 소비재출하 Consumer Goods Shipment Index 소비재수입 1) Consumer Goods Import ( 전년동기대비, % / Year-on-Year % Change) 소비자심리지수 Composite Consumer Sentiment Index (CCSI) 소비자동향조사 2) Consumer Survey 현재경기판단 Current Domestic Economic Conditions 향후경기전망 Prospective Domestic Economic Conditions 소비지출전망 Prospective Household Spending Ⅳ 2.4 (.1) Ⅰ 2.4 ( 1.4) Ⅱ 3.9 (.7) Ⅲ 3.6 ( 1.1) Ⅳ 6.3 ( 2.9) Ⅰ 5. (-.2) Ⅱ 5.9 ( 2.) Ⅲ 3.5 (-1.2) Ⅳ 2.5 ( 2.1) Ⅰ 1.9 (-.5) Ⅱ 1.7 ( 1.2) Ⅲ p 4.3 ( 1.1) ( 1.6) (-3.3) ( 4.2) (-.3) (-.4) (-2.1) ( 3.2) (-.3) (.7) (-1.1) ( 1.3) (.2) p.9 (-.9) p 8.3 ( 3.1) p 주 : 1) 소비재수입액을전월의소비재수입물가지수로실질화. 2) 기준=1. 3) p 는잠정치( 단, 소비자동향조사는제외). 4) ( ) 는계절조정전기대비증가율. 자료 : 한국은행; 통계청; 한국무역협회. Note: 1) Nominal consumer goods import deflated by import price index (consumer goods) of the previous month. 2) Base=1. 3) p is preliminary (Consumer survey is excluded). 4) Figures in parentheses indicate percentage changes from the previous period (S.A.). Source: Bank of Korea; Statistics Korea; Korea International Trade Association. 41

46 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 형태별설비투자지수 Equipment Investment Index by Type 설비투자지수와기계류내수출하지수 Equipment Investment Index and Domestic Machinery Shipment Index 6 ( 전년동기대비, % / Year-on-Year % Change) 4 ( 전년동기대비, % / Year-on-Year % Change) 기계류 (Machinery) 운송장비 (Transport Equipment) 설비투자지수 (Equipment Investment Index) 기계류내수출하지수 (Domestic Machinery Shipment Index) 자본재수입액과기계류수입액 Import of Capital Goods and Machinery Import 국내기계수주 Domestic Machinery Orders Received 75 ( 전년동기대비, % / Year-on-Year % Change) 75 ( 전년동기대비, % / Year-on-Year % Change) 자본재수입액 (Import of Capital Goods) 기계류수입액 (Machinery Import) 총수주액 (Total) 민간수주액 (Private) 42

47 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 4. 설비투자 Equipment Investment Equipment Investment Index 설비투자지수 기계류 Machinery 운송장비 Transport Equipment 기계류내수출하지수 1) Domestic Machinery Shipment Index 기계류수입액 2) Machinery Import Domestic Machinery Orders Received ( 십억원, Billion Won, 21=1) 국내기계수주 3) 공공 Public 민간 Private ,671 25,453 1,921 23, ,988 26,413 2,842 23, Ⅲ ,273 5, ,212 Ⅳ ,516 7,494 1,167 6, Ⅰ ,665 8, ,594 Ⅱ ,439 8, ,218 Ⅲ p ,824 7, , ,191 2, , ,399 1, , ,814 2, , ,34 3, , ,337 2, , ,3 2, , ,28 3, , ,385 2, , ,778 2, , ,275 3, , ,815 2, ,487 8 p ,53 2, ,215 9 p ,632 2, ,262 전년동기대비증가율 (%) Percentage Change from the Same Period of the Previous Year Ⅲ -4.7 ( -1.9) ( -6.2) Ⅳ 5.9 ( 8.) ( 26.4) Ⅰ 18.1 ( 5.6) (.9) Ⅱ 17.7 ( 4.4) ( 8.3) Ⅲ p 2.7 ( -.3) ( -4.2) ( -1.) ( 8.1) ( -.9) ( -8.1) ( 6.4) ( 18.3) ( 5.8) ( 51.8) ( 1.4) (-38.4) ( -8.5) ( 31.4) (13.4) ( -.2) ( -3.9) ( 4.1) ( 2.2) (-13.5) ( 4.8) ( 16.8) ( -5.3) ( -4.4) p 12.5 ( -.7) ( -4.4) p 25.2 ( 5.5) ( -6.1) 주 : 1) 선박제외. 2) 백만달러. 3) 선박제외, 21 년불변가격. 4) p 는잠정치( 단, 기계류수입액은제외). 5) ( ) 는계절조정전기대비증가율. 자료 : 한국은행; 통계청; 무역협회. Note: 1) Vessels are excluded. 2) Million US Dollars. 3) Vessels are excluded, at 21 Constant Prices. 4) p is preliminary (Machinery Import is excluded). 5) Figures in parentheses indicate percentage changes from the previous period (S.A.). Source: Bank of Korea; Statistics Korea; International Trade Association. 43