12월속표지_담당자.hwp

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1 총괄국내총생산경기소비설비투자건설투자대외거래노동시장물가금융시장재정세계경제 김성태 김성태이우열정대희김동영권규호한일수권규호한일수송인호구희일정규철이유진박윤수박소현정대희장호식김지섭양유진김성태이우열이상규신형섭장호식 본자료는 KDI 홈페이지를통해서도보실수있습니다.

2 Contents 주요경제지표 Major Economic Indicators 요약및평가 Summary and Assessment 경제동향주요지표 Major Indicators of the Korean Economy 1. 국내총생산 (21 년불변가격) 35 Gross Domestic Product (at 21 Constant Prices) 2. 경기 37 Economic Activity 3. 소비 39 Consumption. 설비투자 1 Equipment Investment 5. 건설투자 3 Construction Investment 6-1. 수출, 수입및교역조건 5 Exports, Imports and Terms of Trade 6-2. 경상수지및금융계정 7 Current Account and Financial Account 7. 고용및임금 9 Employment and Wage 8. 물가 51 Price Indices 9-1. 금융시장 (I) 53 Financial Market (I) 9-2. 금융시장 (II) 55 Financial Market (II) 1-1. 세계경제동향 (I) 57 Major Indicators of the World Economy (I) 1-2. 세계경제동향 (II) 59 Major Indicators of the World Economy (II)

3 주요경제지표 Major Economic Indicators ( 전년동기대비증가율, % / Year-on-Year % Change) Ⅳ Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ 전산업생산 All Industry Production 광공업생산 Industrial Production 서비스업생산 Service Production 소매판매액 Retail Sales Index 설비투자지수 Equipment Investment Index 건설기성액 ( 불변 ) Value of Construction Completed (Constant Price) 수출 ( 통관 ) Exports (f.o.b.) 수입 ( 통관 ) Imports (c.i.f.) 무역수지 ( 십억달러 ) Balance of Trade (Billion US Dollars) 실업률 Unemployment Rate 취업자수 Number of Employed 소비자물가 Consumer Price 국고채 3-year Treasury Bonds 종합주가지수 KOSPI 원/ 달러환율 Won/Dollar Exchange Rate OECD 경기선행지수 OECD Composite Leading Indicator 유가 ( 두바이, 달러 / 배럴 ) Oil Prices (Dubai, US$/Barrel) ,11 1,916 1,916 2,1 2,7 1,963 1,963 2,29 1,992 1,55.3 1,99.2 1,99.2 1,15. 1,12.1 1,19.5 1,19.5 1,12.3 1, 주: 국고채수익률 종합주가지수 원/ 달러환율은기말기준, 유가( 두바이) 는기간평균기준임.

4 요약및평가 최근우리경제는완만한성장세를유지하고있는것으로판단됨. 민간소비, 투자등내수전반이완만한회복세를유지하고있으며, 동행지수순환변동치도최근의상승세를지속하고있음. 민간소비는소매판매가개별소비세인하등의영향으로일시적으로크게증가하고, 소비자심리도개선되는등비교적양호한모습 투자도건설기성이건축부문의증가세를유지하고있으며, 크게증가하는등완만한회복세를지속 설비투자도운송장비가 또한동행지수순환변동치도기준(1) 을상회하는수준에서상승세를지속하며경기가개선되고있음을시사그러나수출전반이부진한가운데광공업생산도일부를제외한대부분업종에서감소세를지속하면서우리경제의회복세를제약하고있음. 선박을제외한수출은여전히 1% 대의감소세를지속하고있으며, OECD 선행 지수도하락세를보이고있어당분간수출여건이개선되기는어려운상황임을 시사 아울러자동차및 ICT 를제외한광공업생산이부진을지속하고있으며, 제조업 평균가동률도하락하는등경기회복세가광공업전반으로확산되지못하고있음. 별도의언급이없을경우모든증가율은전년동월대비기준임. 1

5 경기 : 서비스업생산이비교적양호한가운데, 광공업생산과출하도일부업종을중심 으로개선되는등경기가완만하게회복되고있음. 1 월중전산업생산은이례적으로높았던전월(.5%) 보다는둔화되었으나, 여전히 완만한회복세( 전년동월대비 2.%) 를유지하고있음. 서비스업생산은개별소비세인하등으로도소매업의증가폭이확대되면서전월(3.7%) 에 이어전년동월대비 3.1% 의비교적높은증가율을기록 광공업생산은자동차(7.5%), 반도체(.3%) 등일부업종이전월에이어높은증가율을 기록하면서 1.5% 증가하였으나, 계절조정전월대비로는 1.% 감소 한편, 자동차및 ICT 를제외한광공업생산 ( 전년동월대비 2.5%) 이부진을지속하고있으며, 제조업평균가동률도하락(75.2% 73.8%) 하는등경기회복세가광공업전반으로확 산되지못하고있음. 광공업생산지수 (3MA) 및서비스업생산지수 (3MA) ( 전년동기대비, %, 3 개월이동평균 ) 광공업생산지수 (3MA) 서비스업생산지수 (3MA) 제조업출하가일부업종을중심으로증가세를지속하는가운데, 재고율은소폭하락 제조업출하는자동차와반도체를중심으로전월(3.8%) 에이어 2.9% 의증가율을기록하며 완만한개선추세를유지 제조업재고율( 재고/ 출하비율) 은전월(127.6%) 보다소폭낮은 126.8% 를기록하여재고 조정이일부나타나고있음을시사 2

6 출하지수(3MA) 와재고율 ( 전년동기대비, %, 3 개월이동평균 ) (%) 출하지수 ( 좌, 3MA) 재고율 ( 우 ) 한편, 동행지수순환변동치는내수개선으로소매판매액및수입액등이증가하면서 전월(1.8) 보다높은 11.1을기록 선행지수순환변동치는재고순환지표 ( 출하증가율재고증가율) 및국제원자재가격지수가 상승하면서전월(1.2) 보다소폭높은 1.를기록 동행지수순환변동치와선행지수순환변동치 15 ( 기준 =1) 동행지수순환변동치 선행지수순환변동치 3

7 소비 : 소매판매가일시적으로크게증가하였으나, 것으로판단됨. 전반적인민간소비회복세는완만한 1월 8.3% 중소매판매액지수는개별소비세인하등의영향으로전년동월대비기록하며전월(5.6%) 보다증가폭이일시적으로확대 의증가율을 내구재는개별소비세인하에기인하여승용차(2.%) 및가전제품(15.2%) 이크게증가 하고, 작년의 (23.3%) 단말기유통법시행에따른기저효과로통신기기및컴퓨터판매도 큰폭으로개선되면서전년동월대비 19.3% 의높은증가율을기록 또한대규모할인행사의영향으로준내구재(6.5%) 가증가로전환되면서최근의부진이 완화되는가운데, 비내구재도전년동월대비 3.2% 증가하며완만한증가세를유지 다만, 소매판매액지수의급등은일시적인요인에기인하는바, 이러한추세가지속되기는 어려울것으로판단됨. 서비스업생산도전월(3.7%) 에이어비교적높은 3.1% 의증가율을기록 숙박및음식점업(-1.3%) 이여전히부진한모습이나, 소매판매증가의영향으로도소매업 (5.9%) 의증가폭은일시적으로확대됨. 11월중소비자심리지수는전월보다 1p 상승한 16을기록하여소비심리의개선추세도유 지되고있음. 소매판매액지수 (3MA) 및소비자심리지수 ( 전년동기대비, %, 3개월이동평균 ) ( 기준 =1) 소매판매액지수 ( 좌, 3MA) 소비자심리지수 ( 우 ) 95

8 설비투자 : 설비투자는기계류의개선추세가약화되었으나운송장비를중심으로완만한 회복세를유지하고있음. 1 월중설비투자지수는전월(7.3%) 보다증가폭이확대된전년동월대비 12.% 의 증가율을기록 품목별로는운송장비가전월(36.1%) 에이어전년동월대비.1% 의높은증가율을기록 하였으나, 설비투자의대부분을차지하는기계류는.9% 증가하는데그치며최근의증 가세가둔화되고있음. * 기계류( 전년동월대비, %): (7 월) 8.2 (8 월) 11.3 (9 월) -3.7 (1 월).9 계절조정전월대비로는기타운송장비가감소한데기인하여.8% 감소 설비투자의선행지표인국내기계수주도전년동월대비 월(5.5%) 에이어완만한증가세를유지하고있음. 6.% 의증가율을기록하며전 수요자별로는공공부문이 51.5% 감소한반면, 민간부문은 13.% 의증가율을기록 다만, 설비투자지수와상관관계가높은기계류수입액은 11 월중(11. 1~11. 2 속보치) 1.% 감소를기록 설비투자지수및민간국내기계수주 3 ( 전년동기대비, %, 3 개월이동평균 ) 설비투자지수 (3MA) 민간국내기계수주 (3MA) 5

9 건설투자 : 건설기성의증가세가다소둔화되었으나, 호한회복세는지속되고있음. 주거용을중심으로건축부문의양 1 월중건설기성( 불변) 은건축부문(12.6%) 이비교적높은증가세를유지하였으나, 토목부문(-1.7%) 이감소로전환되면서전월(13.9%) 보다낮은 3.9% 증가 건설수주와건축허가면적이기저효과등으로양호한증가세를유지하며전년동월대비 각각 27.5% 와.9% 의높은증가율을기록 건설수주는주택(8.3%) 을중심으로건축(38.3%) 부문의증가세가지속되었고, 건축허가 면적도주거용(51.%) 과상업용(6.2%), 공업용(19.%) 모두에서큰폭으로개선 한편, 아파트거래가여전히활발하게이루어지는가운데수도권을중심으로공동주택 분양도전월의증가세를유지 아파트거래가기저효과로인해전년동월대비 1.% 감소하였으나, 월 1만호내외의양 호한거래량은유지되고있음. 공동주택분양은전년동월대비 31.% 증가한 8,12 호를기록하였고, 전년동기간(1~1 월) 대비로도 7.5%(2,2 호) 증가하는등최근의급증세를지속하고있음. 건설기성액및국내건설수주 2 ( 전년동기대비, %, 3 개월이동평균 ) 건설기성액 ( 좌, 3MA) 건설수주액 ( 우, 3MA) 6

10 수출 : 수출은선박수출의증가등일시적요인으로감소폭이축소되었으나, 부진은지속되고있음. 전반적인 11 월중수출은대부분의품목에서부진하였으나, 선박수출이크게증가하고기저효 과도작용하면서전월(-15.9%) 보다감소폭( 전년동월대비.7%) 이일시적으로축소 품목별로는선박(133.7%) 과무선통신기기 (23.6%) 가큰폭으로증가하였으나, 석유류 (-3.3%), 철강제품(-26.6%), 반도체(-9.6%), 자동차및부품(-.6%) 등대부분의주 요수출품목에서부진한모습 지역별로는선박수출이증가하며 EU(52.5%) 로의수출이확대되었으나, 중국(-6.8%), 미 국(-12.%), 일본(-18.9%) 으로의수출은부진이지속 선박을제외한수출이전월(-11.5%) 보다감소폭이확대된 12.% 의증가율을기록하였 음을감안할때, 수출전반이개선되고있는것으로보기는어려움. 아울러 시사 OECD 선행지수도하락세를보이고있어수출여건이개선되기어려운상황임을 수입은저유가가지속되면서전월(-16.6%) 과유사한큰폭의감소(-17.6%) 를기록 무역수지는일시적으로수출부진이완화되면서전년동월(52.6 억달러) 보다크게확대 된 13.6억달러의흑자를기록 선박제외수출(3MA) 과 OECD+NME 경기선행지수 1 ( 전년동기대비, %, 3 개월이동평균 ) ( 기준 =1) 선박제외총수출 ( 좌, 3MA) OECD+NME 경기선행지수 ( 우 ) 99.1 주: 주요신흥국(NME) 은브라질, 중국, 인도, 인도네시아, 러시아, 남아프리카공화국을의미함. 7

11 1 월중국제수지 경상수지는서비스수지가악화되었으나, 저유가의영향으로상품수지의흑자폭이 유지되면서대규모흑자추세가지속 1월중경상수지는전년동월과유사한 89.6 억달러를기록하였고, 계절조정으로는 전월(97.6 억달러) 보다는축소되었지만여전히큰규모인 71.9억달러의흑자를기록 상품수지는저유가지속에따른교역조건의개선(12.%) 으로전년동월(79.8 억달 러) 보다크게확대된 17.억달러의대규모흑자를기록 서비스수지는여행수입이감소세( 2.3%) 를지속하고지식재산권사용료지급도확 대(1.6%) 되면서전년동월의흑자(1.3 억달러) 에서적자(-19.9 억달러) 로전환 계절조정경상수지(3MA) 와교역조건(3MA) ( 억달러, 3 개월이동평균 ) ( 전년동기대비, %, 3개월이동평균 ) 계절조정경상수지 ( 좌, 3MA) 교역조건 ( 우, 3MA) 금융계정은순유출규모가전월(15. 억달러) 보다확대된 11.9억달러를기록 직접투자수지는내국인의해외직접투자감소에기인하여순유출규모가전월 (6.1 억달러) 보다축소된 35.억달러를기록증권투자수지는내국인의해외증권투자증가에기인하여순유출규모가전월 (2.8 억달러) 보다확대된 71.억달러를기록 기타투자수지는금융기관의해외대출이확대되었으나, 해외예치금회수가증가하면서 순유입규모가전월(. 억달러) 보다소폭확대된 9.3억달러를기록 8

12 노동시장 : 제조업및상용직중심의취업자증가세가유지되는가운데청년층고용 상황은완만하게개선되고있음. 1 월중취업자는전월(3만 7 천명, 1.3%) 과유사한전년동월대비 3만 8천명 (1.3%) 증가 산업별로는제조업취업자수증가폭(19만 1 천명,.%) 이 3개월연속확대된가운데 종사상지위별로는상용직(56만 5 천명,.6%) 의증가세가유지되고있음. 한편, 15~29 세청년층의경우종사상지위별로는상용직, 산업별로는숙박 음식, 예술 스포츠 여가업을중심으로 1만 1 천명(2.6%) 증가하며최근의양호한흐름을지속 1 월중계절조정경제활동참가율은전월(62.6%) 에비해.2%p 하락한 62.% 를 기록하였고, 고용률(15~6 세) 은전월과동일한 65.9% 를기록 계절조정실업률은전월(3.5%) 에비해.1%p 하락한 3.% 를기록하였으며, 특히 15~29세청년층은 8.1% 까지하락 * ( 월) 1.1% (7 월) 9.3% (8 월) 8.7% (9 월) 8.7% (1 월) 8.1% 9월중상용근로자 5 인이상사업체의명목임금 ( 상용근로자, 정액급여 ) 은전년동월대비 3.1% 상승하여전월(3.2%) 과유사한수준의상승률을기록 취업자증감, 계절조정경제활동참가율및고용률(15~6 세) 1, ( 전년동월대비, 천명 ) (%) 취업자증감 ( 좌 ) 계절조정경제활동참가율 ( 우 ) 계절조정 15~6 세고용률 ( 우 ) 6.5 9

13 물가 : 11 월중소비자물가는유가하락의영향이축소되며전월(.9%) 보다소폭높은 1.% 의상승률을기록 상품물가는공업제품가격의하락폭이축소됨에따라전월(-.6%) 보다높은.5% 의 상승률을기록 농축수산물가격은채소류 (6.2% 5.%), 과실(3.7% 2.1%) 가격의상승폭이둔화되며 전월(3.%) 보다낮은 1.7% 의상승률을기록 반면, 공업제품가격은석유류(-18.6% -17.5%) 가격의하락폭이축소되고, 내구재(.%) 가격이상승으로전환됨에따라전월(-.3%) 보다높은.% 의상승률을기록 전기 수도 가스는전월(-7.2%) 과유사한 7.1% 의상승률을기록 서비스가격은개인서비스가격상승세가소폭확대되면서전월(2.1%) 보다높은 2.2% 의 상승률을기록 농산물및석유류를제외한근원물가도전월(2.3%) 에비해소폭확대된 2.% 의상승 률을기록했으며, 식료품및에너지제외지수는 2.7% 의상승률을기록 아파트매매가격상승률은전월과동일한전월대비 전월(.6%) 보다상승폭이축소된.5% 의상승률을기록.% 를기록하였으며, 전세가격은 소비자물가추이및부문별기여도 3 ( 전년동기대비, %, %p) 농축수산물공업제품서비스 전기 수도 가스소비자물가근원물가 주: 부문별. 기여도의합은반올림으로총지수의증감률과일치하지않을수있음 1

14 금융시장 : 국내금융시장은미국금리인상이임박한것으로평가되면서장기금리와 원/ 달러환율이상승하고, 주가는하락하는모습 11 월말국고채(3 년만기) 금리는외국인의국채선물순매도등으로전월말(1.66%) 대비 13bp 상승한 1.79% 를기록 원/ 달러환율은미국금리인상가능성, (1,12.3 원) 대비 8.1원상승한 1,15.원을기록 외국인의국내주식순매도등으로전월말 반면, 원/1 엔환율은전월말(9.1 원) 대비 7.원하락한 936.7원을기록 종합주가지수는미국금리인상기대감이확산되는가운데중국의증시하락, 파리테러 사태등대외불확실성이확대되면서전월말(2,29.5) 대비 37.5p 하락한 1,992.을 기록 한편, 1월중은행가계대출은주택담보대출을중심으로 9.조원이증가한가운데 마이너스통장대출등비주택담보대출의증가폭도확대 은행비주택담보대출 ( 기간중증감액, 조원): ( 11년 1 월).8 ( 12년 1 월) 1.5 ( 13년 1 월).7 ( 1년 1 월).9 ( 15년 1 월) 2. 금리및주가 2. (%) 2, ,1 2, 1.8 1, 국고채 3 년 ( 좌 ) KOSPI( 우 ) 1,8 11

15 세계경제 : 세계경제의성장세가점차둔화되는가운데, 미국금리인상, 신흥국경기부진, 추가테러우려등하방위험도확대 선진국의경우미국과유로존이내수관련지표를중심으로완만한경기개선추세를 보인반면, 일본은투자와수출부진으로회복세가약화 주요선진국의경제성장률 주요선진국의소매판매 9 ( 전기대비연율, %) 6 ( 전년동기대비, %) IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III 미국유로존일본 미국 유로존 신흥시장국은내수와수출이모두부진한가운데, 더욱심화되는모습 원자재수출국가들의경기침체는 주요신흥국의수출 주요신흥국의제조업심리지수 2 ( 전년동기대비, %, 3 개월이동평균 ) 56 ( 기준 =5) 중국브라질러시아 중국인도브라질 12

16 미국경제는소비와주택등내수를중심으로비교적양호한성장세를지속 향후금리인상에따른수출부진과투자감소등의우려가제기되고있으나, 중심으로경기회복세는유지될것으로전망되고있음. 민간소비를 미국의생산과개인소비지출 미국의실업률과소비자심리지수 6 ( 전년동기대비, %) (%) ( 기준 =1, 3개월이동평균 ) 산업생산 ( 좌 ) 개인소비 ( 우 ) 실업률 ( 좌 ) 소비자심리지수 ( 우 ) 유로존경제는생산과소비가회복세를보이고주요심리지수도상승세를지속하는 등완만한경기개선추세를유지하고있음. 3/ 분기경제성장률이전분기(.%) 보다소폭하락한.3% 를기록하였으나, 완만한경기 회복세는유지되고있는것으로평가됨. 1.5 유로존주요국의경제성장률 ( 전기대비, %) 유로존의제조업심리지수와경기체감지수 ( 기준 =5) ( 기준 =1) / 215 3/ 핀란드 그리스 포르투갈 네덜란드 이탈리아 프랑스 독일 유로존 헝가리 영국 스페인 9 제조업PMI( 좌 ) 경기체감지수 ( 우 ) 98 13

17 일본경제는 3/ 분기국내총생산이전분기에이어감소( 전기대비.2%) 하는등전반 적으로부진한모습 1 월중에도생산과출하등경기관련지표가하락한가운데, 부진도심화 주요신흥국으로의수출 일본의생산및소매판매 일본의수출과수입 15 ( 전년동기대비, %) 3 ( 전년동기대비, %) 산업생산 소매판매 수출 수입 중국경제는소비가완만하게개선되고있으나, 투자와수출이부진한가운데주요경기 관련선행지표의하락세도지속되고있음. 1월중소매판매가자동차판매를중심으로 11.% 증가한반면, 수출은일본과주요아 시아신흥국으로의수출이급감하여전월보다감소폭(-7.%) 이확대됨. 1 중국의생산및소매판매 ( 전년동기대비, %) 중국의고정자산투자와경기선행지수 ( 전년동기대비, %) ( 기준 =1) 산업생산 소매판매 고정자산투자 ( 좌 ) 경기선행지수 ( 우 ) 1

18 11 월중국제유가( 두바이기준) 는세계경제의성장세둔화, OPEC의원유공급확대 등으로 달러내외까지하락 주요비철금속및곡물가격도하락하면서 비해큰폭하락한것으로나타남. CRB지수를비롯한주요상품가격지수는전월에 국제유가 주요상품가격지수 12 ( 달러 / 배럴 ) 32 3,3 3 3, , , ,5 2 2,3 Dubai WTI 18 CRB( 좌 ) 로이터 ( 우 ) 주: 로이터지수는 11월 2 일기준. 2,1 한편, 선진국은완만한경기회복세를유지하겠지만, 주요원자재수출국의성장세는 당초예상보다크게둔화될것으로전망되고있음. 최근 OECD 는세계경제가, 완만한회복세를유지할것으로예상하면서도미국의금리인상 신흥국의경기부진등을반영하여 216년주요국의성장률전망치를하향조정 주요국의 216 년도경제성장률전망(OECD) 전망시점세계미국유로존일본중국브라질 215년 6월 년 11월 자료 : OECD, Economic Outlook, June November 215. (%) 15

19 국제금융시장 : 국제금융시장은대체로안정적인모습을유지하고있으나, 미국금리인 상과 IS 테러우려등다수의위험요인이상존하고있음. 파리테러로금융시장의변동성이일시적으로확대되었으나, 주요선진국의장기금리는 완화적통화정책기조가지속되며하락세를지속 주요국의장기금리 VIX지수와신흥시장채권지수 3. (%) 미국독일일본 VIX( 좌 ) 신흥시장채권지수 ( 우 ) 한편, 미국금리인상이임박하면서달러화의가치가상승한가운데, 주요국의주가지 수는월중반큰폭으로하락한후에다시완만하게상승 주요국의주가변화율과달러화대비통화절상률(11 월말현재, 전월말대비 ) (%) 미국유로일본중국러시아인도인도네시아한국 주가변화율 통화절상률 16

20 Summary and Assessment The Korean economy maintained modest growth pace. Domestic demand maintained a gradual recovery while the cyclical component of the coincident composite index continued the recent upward trend. Private consumption has been on a decent trend with retail sales soaring temporarily on cuts in the individual consumption tax and improving consumer sentiment. Investment continued a modest recovery with the value of construction completed trending upward and facilities investment holding up well with a steep increase in transport equipment. The cyclical component of the coincident composite index continued on an upward trend above the baseline (1), implying improvement in economic activities. However, exports remained in a slump and industrial production showed continuing decreases in most sectors, weighing on Korea's economic recovery. Exports, excluding vessels, have been on course to decelerate (1% range) and export are likely to continue to face difficult conditions as OECD leading indicators keep sliding Industrial production, excluding motor vehicles and ICT, remains stagnant and the manufacturing capacity utilization rate dropped implying that the recovery momentum has not spread to all sectors of the industry. All growth figures are on a year-on-year basis unless otherwise noted. This document is an English translation of the original Korean version; the Korean version takes precedence in case of any ambiguities or discrepancies. 17

21 Economic Activity: Services production stayed relatively robust and industrial production and shipment posted some improvement mainly in certain sectors, pointing to a moderate recovery of economic activities. October's whole industry production maintained a modest recovery at a 2.% growth, though slower than the previous month s unprecedented high growth (.5%). Services production recorded a relatively high growth of 3.1%, continuing on the upward curve seen a month ago (3.7%), owing to the rise in wholesale & retail trade growth due to the cut in the individual consumption tax. Industrial production recorded a 1.5% growth YoY, helped by a continuing unprecedented rapid growth in some sectors including motor vehicles (7.5%) and semiconductors (.3%). However, the growth was a mere -1.% MoM on a seasonal adjustment basis. Meanwhile, industrial production, excluding motor vehicles and ICT, has remained stagnant (-2.5%), and the manufacturing capacity utilization rate dropped (75.2% 73.8%), meaning that the recovery momentum of economic activities has not yet reached the entire industry. Industrial Production (3MA) and Service Production Index (3MA) 5 (Year-on-Year % Change, 3MA) Industrial Production Index(3MA) Service Production Index(3MA) Manufacturing shipment has risen continuously led by a few sectors, while the inventory-to-shipments ratio fell marginally. Manufacturing shipment maintained the recent modest improvement with 2.9% growth mainly led by motor vehicles and semiconductor, following the trend seen a month earlier (3.8%). The manufacturing inventory-to-shipments ratio recorded 126.8%, lower than a month ago (127.6%), signalling partial adjustment in inventory. 18

22 Shipment Index (3MA) and Inventory-Shipment Ratio (Year-on-Year % Change, 3MA) (%) Shipment Index (left, 3MA) Inventory-Shipment Ratio (right) Meanwhile, the cyclical component of the coincident composite index recorded 11.1, up from a month earlier (1.8%), as retail sales and import value rose on improvements in domestic demand. The cyclical component of the leading composite index recorded 1., slightly up from a month ago (1.2), on the increases in the inventory cycle index (growth rate gap between shipment and inventory) and international raw materials price index. Cyclical Component of Composite Economic Indices 15 (Base=1) Cyclical Component of Coincident Index Cyclical Component of Leading Index 19

23 Consumption: Retail sales soared temporarily, but the overall recovery pace in private consumption appears to be modest. October s retail sales index grew 8.3%, a temporary increase from a month ago (5.6%) due to the reduced individual consumption tax. By item, the sales of durable goods expanded considerably by 19.3%, influenced by the soaring sales of passenger cars (2.%) and home appliances (15.2%) due to the reduced individual consumption tax and by the fast improving sales of communications devices and computers (23.3%) due to the base effect brought by the Mobile Device Distribution Improvement Act. In addition, due to a string of large discount events, the sales of semi-durable goods turned to an increase (6.5%), signalling an easing of recent sluggishness, while those of non-durable goods climbed 3.2%, continuing a modest growth. However, the uptick in the retail sales index was attributable to temporary factors, meaning such a trend may not last long. Services production recorded a relatively high growth of 3.1%, continuing the upward trend of a month ago (3.7%). The accommodation & food service activities stayed in a slump (1.3%), but the wholesale & retail trade (5.9%) exhibited a temporary jump due to the rise in retail sales. November s consumer sentiment index recorded 16, up by 1p from a month ago, indicating a continued improvement in the consumption sentiment. Retail Sales Index (3MA) and Composite Consumer Sentiment Index 6 (Year-on-Year % Change, 3MA) (Base=1) Retail Sales Index (left, 3MA) Composite Consumer Sentiment Index (right) 2

24 Facilities Investment: The equipment investment index sustained a moderate recovery though improvement in machinery slowed. October s index went higher than a month ago (7.3%) to record a 12.% growth. By category, transport equipment displayed a relatively high growth of.1%, continuing the upward trend of a month ago (36.1%), whereas machinery which accounts for most of facilities investment dropped less (.9%), indicating a gradual slowdown in the recent growth momentum. * Machinery (YoY,%): (Jul.) 8.2 (Aug.) 11.3 (Sep.) -3.7 (Oct.).9 On a seasonally adjusted MoM basis, the index dropped.8% due to the fall in other transport equipment. Meanwhile, domestic machinery orders received, as the leading indicator of facilities investment, recorded a 6.% growth, sustaining the moderate growth from a month ago (5.5%). By client, the public sector dropped 51.5% whereas the private sector rose 13.%. Meanwhile, machinery import value, which has a high relevance to the equipment investment index, retreated 1.% in November (advanced estimate Nov. 1~2). Equipment Investment Index (3MA) and Domestic Machinery Orders Received in the Private Sector (3MA) 3 (Year-on-Year % Change, 3MA) Equipment Investment Index (3MA) Domestic Machinery Orders Received in the Private Sector (3MA) 21

25 Construction Investment: The value of construction completed posted a reduced growth but the stable recovery is still ongoing led by residential building construction. In October, the (constant) value of construction completed rose 3.9%, lower than a month ago (13.9%) as the civil engineering sector swung to a decline (-1.7%) amid the continuing fast growth (12.6%) in the building construction sector. Construction orders received and building construction permits recorded relatively high growth rates of 27.5% and.9%, respectively, on the base effect. Construction orders received posted a continuing growth in building construction (38.3%), particularly residential construction (8.3%), and building construction permits also showed huge increases in all types of residential (51.%), commercial (6.2%) and industrial (19.%) construction. Meanwhile, apartment transactions continued to remain at a high level, and pre-sale of apartments (including multi-family housing) maintained the growth momentum of a month ago, mainly in the capital region. Apartment transactions dropped 1.% on the base effect, but the healthy transaction volume of about 1, units per month was sustained. The pre-sale of apartments (including multi-family housing) rose quite rapidly by 31.% to record 8,12 units over the same month a year ago and by 7.5% to record 2,2 units over the same period (Jan.~Oct.) a year ago. Value of Construction Completed (3MA) and Construction Orders Received (3MA) 2 (Year-on-Year % Change, 3MA) Value of Construction Completed (left, 3MA) Construction Orders Received (right, 3MA) 22

26 Exports: Exports dropped less due to temporary factors such as the increased export of vessels but overall sluggishness in exports still continued. October s exports temporarily exhibited a reduced fall (.7% YoY) than a month ago (-15.9%) despite sluggishness in most sectors as vessels export expanded significantly and the base effect kicked in. Huge gains were observed in vessels (133.7%) and wireless communications devices (23.6%), but sluggishness has persisted in most key export items: petroleum (-3.3%), steel (-26.6%), semiconductor (-9.6%), and motor vehicle & parts (-.6%). Exports to the EU (52.5%) advanced amid the increase in vessels export, but exports to China (-6.8%), the US (-12.%), and Japan (-18.9%) stayed in a slump. The fact that exports (excluding vessels) actually registered a 12.% growth, a marginal improvement from a month ago (-11.5%), makes it difficult to presume that there will be improvements in overall export situation. OECD leading indicators are on a decline, providing little signs for improvement in exports. Imports slipped considerably (-17.6%) as a month ago (-16.6%) due to continuing low oil prices. October s trade balance posted a much larger surplus ($1.36 billion) than a year ago ($5.26 billion), as the slump in exports moderated temporarily. Exports except for Vessel (3MA) and Composite Leading Index for OECD+NME 1 (Year-on-Year % change, 3MA) (Base = 1) Exports except for Vessel (left, 3MA) OECD+NME Composite Leading Index (right) Note: NMEs are Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, Russia and South Africa. 23

27 October s Balance of Payments The current account continued to run a huge surplus despite a deterioration in the services account as the goods account maintained a certain amount of surplus thanks to low oil prices. The current account continued to run a large surplus of $8.96 billion, similar to a year ago, and also a sizable surplus of $7.19 billion after seasonal adjustment, lower than a month ago. The goods account recorded a large surplus of $1.7 billion, significantly up from a year ago ($7.98 billion), thanks to the improved terms of trade, helped by continuing low oil prices. The services account posted a turnaround from a surplus ($.13 billion) to a deficit (-$1.99 billion) as travel revenue continued to decrease (-2.3%) and royalty payment increased (1.6%). Seasonally Adjusted Current Account (3MA) and Terms of Trade (3MA) 1 (Hundred Million US Dollars, 3MA) (Year-on-Year % Change, 3MA) S.A. Current Account (left, 3MA) Terms of Trade (right, 3MA) The financial account recorded a larger outflow of $11.9 billion than a month ago ($1.5 billion). The direct investment account recorded a smaller outflow of $3.5 billion than a month ago ($.61 billion) driven by falling outbound FDI. The portfolio investment account recorded a larger outflow of $7.1 billion than a month ago ($.28 billion) driven by domestic investors increasing overseas securities investment. Other investment accounts recorded an inflow of $.93 billion, slightly up from a month ago ($. billion), as the withdrawal of overseas deposits increased 2

28 Labor Market: Employment growth was sustained mainly in manufacturing and among regular workers, while the employment situation for the youth population improved gradually. October s employment rose 38, (1.3%), similar to a month ago (37,, 1.3%). By industry, the number of employed posted three-consecutive months of increases in manufacturing (191,,.%). By occupational status, the number of regular workers (565,,.6%) also maintained the upward trajectory. Meanwhile, as for the youth population (aged 15-29), a steady employment growth (11,, 2.6%) was maintained among regular workers and in accommodation & food service activities and arts, sports & recreation related services. October s seasonally-adjusted labor force participation and employment (aged 15-6) rates recorded 62.% (down by.2%p from a month ago) and 65.9% (unchanged from a month ago), respectively. Seasonally-adjusted unemployment rate recorded 3.%, down by.1%p from a month ago, and the youth (aged 15~29) unemployment rate declined to 8.1%. * (Jun. 15) 1.1% (Jul.) 9.3% (Aug.) 8.7% (Sep.) 8.7% (Oct.) 8.1% During September, the nominal regular wage (in a workplace with more than 5 full-time employees) rose 3.1%, similar to a month ago (3.2%). Changes in the Number of Employed Persons, Seasonally Adjusted Labor Force Participation Rate and Employment Rate for Persons Aged 15~6 1, (Year-on-Year Change, Thousand Persons) (%) Changes in Employed Persons (left) S.A. Labor Force Participation Rate (right) S.A. Employment Rate for Persons Aged 15~6 (right)

29 CPI: November s headline CPI inflation rose marginally from.9% a month ago to record 1.% as the impact from the oil price decline waned. Goods prices recorded.5%, higher than a month ago (-.6%), influenced by a smaller fall in industrial goods prices. Prices of agricultural, livestock, and fisheries products rose 1.7%, down from the 3.% a month ago, influenced by a smaller fall in the prices of vegetables (6.2% 5.%) and fruits (3.7% 2.1%). Industrial goods prices rose (.%) higher than a month ago (-.3%), influenced by petroleum product prices falling less (-18.6% -17.5%) and durable goods prices turning to an increase (.%). Utility services prices (water, electricity and gas) rose (-7.2%). 7.1%, similar to a month ago Services prices rose 2.2%, slightly up from a month ago (2.1%) amid a marginal rise in the price inflation of personal services. Core inflation, excluding agricultural and petroleum products, stood at 2.%, slightly up from a month ago (2.3%), and excluding food and energy, it was recorded at 2.7%. Prices of apartment purchases rose.% MoM, the same as a month ago, while those of apartment jeonse rose.5%, down from a month ago (.6%). CPI Changes and Contribution by Sector 3 Agricultural Service CPI (Year-on-Year, %, %p) Manufacturing Electricity, water, and gas Core CPI Note: The sum of sector-b-sector contributions are rounded off to the nearest integer, which may be inconsistent with the growth rate of the total index. 26

30 Financial Market: The domestic financial market witnessed a rise in long-term interest rates and dollar/won exchange rate and a fall in stock prices, influenced by the projection of an imminent hike in the US interest rates. The yields on government bonds (3-year maturity) recorded 1.79% as of end-november, up by 13bp from a month ago (1.66%), influenced by foreigners net selling. The dollar/won exchange rate advanced on a likely rate hike in the US and the net stock selling by foreigners to record 1,15 won, up by 8 won from a month ago (1,12 won). The yen/won exchange rate recorded won per 1 yen, down by 7. won from a month ago (9.1 won). The KOSPI closed at 1,992., down by 37.5p from a month ago (2,29.5), influenced by mounting uncertainties abroad such as stock market crashes in China and the Paris terror attacks amid growing expectations over a US rate hike. During October, bank loans to households rose by 9. trillion won (mostly mortgages); non-mortgage loans, including credit line, also expanded. Banks non-home mortgage (change, trillion won): (Oct. 11).8 (Oct. 12) 1.5 (Oct. 13).7 (Oct. 1).9 (Oct. 15) 2. 3-year Treasury Bond and Stock Price Index 2. (%) 2, ,1 2, 1.8 1, ,8 3Yrs Treasury Bond (left) KOSPI (right) 27

31 World Economy: Global growth has slowed gradually, and downside risks are mounting such as the US interest rate hike, economic slowdown in emerging markets, and potential terror attacks. Among advanced economies, the US and Eurozone showed a modest recovery in domestic demand indicators whereas the pace in Japan has slowed due to sluggishness in investment and exports. 9 GDP Growth Rates in the US, Eurozone, and Japan (QoQ annualized rate, %) 6 Retail Sales in the US and Eurozone (Year-on-Year % Change) IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III US Eurozone Japan US Eurozone Emerging markets showed a continuing slump in domestic demand and exports with a particularly severe slowdown in raw material exporting economies. 2 Exports in China, Brazil, and Russia (Year-on-Year % Change, 3MA) 56 Manufacturing Indices in China, India, and Brazil (Base=5) China Brazil Russia China India Brazil 28

32 The US exhibited continuing steady growth led by domestic demand, including consumption and housing. Concerns have been addressed about the slowdown in exports and investment following the rate hike, but the recovery pace is projected to continue led by private consumption. US Industrial Production and Personal Consumption Expenditures (Year-on-Year % Change) (%) US Unemployment Rate and Consumer Sentiment (Base=1, 3MA) Industrial Production(left) Personal Consumption(right).5 7 Unemployment Rate(left) Consumer Sentiment(right) The Eurozone showed signs of recovery in production and consumption and consistent gains in key sentiment indices, suggesting the modest improvement trend has been sustained. Its Q3 growth rate went slightly lower to.3% than a quarter ago (.%) but the modest pace of recovery seems to have been maintained. 1.5 GDP Growth Rates in Eurozone (Quarter-on-Quarter % Change) PMI and Sentiment Indicator in Eurozone (Base=5) (Base=1) / 215 3/ Finland Greece Portugal Netherlands Italy France Germany Eurozone Hungary UK Spain 9 PMI(left) Sentiment Indicator(right) 98 29

33 Japan posted a QoQ GDP growth of.2% in the third quarter, continuing the downward trend of a previous quarter, indicating an overall slowdown. October saw declines in economic indicators such as production and shipment, and exports to major emerging economies has deteriorated further. 15 Japan's Industrial Production and Retail Sales (Year-on-Year % Change) 3 Japan's Exports and Imports (Year-on-Year % Change) Industrial Production Retail Sales Exports Imports China showed a moderate improvement in consumption but investment and exports remained in a slump, while major leading indicators are on a continued decline. In October, China s retail sales expanded 11.%, helped by motor vehicle sales while exports dropped further (-7.%) than a month ago due to the plunge in exports to Japan and major Asian emerging economies. 1 China's Industrial Production and Retail Sales (Year-on-Year % Change) 22 China's Fixed Asset Investment and Leading Indicator (Year-on-Year % Change) (Base=1) Industrial Production Retail Sales Fixed Asset Investment(left) Leading Indicator(right) 3

34 In November, international oil prices (Dubai) dropped to the $ (per barrel) range on slowing global growth and OPEC expanding crude oil supply. Major commodity prices such as CRB index, fell much lower than a month ago on drops in the prices of major non-ferrous metals and grains. Oil Prices CRB and Reuters Indices of Commodity Prices 12 ($/Barrel) 32 3,3 3 3, , , ,5 2 2,3 18 2,1 Dubai WTI CRB(left) Reuters(right) Note: Reuters as of November 2 th 215. The global economy is projected to sustain a modest recovery but major raw-material exporting economies will likely experience much-lower-than-expected growth. The OECD projected a modest recovery of the global economy but revised down its growth projection for major economies in 216, reflecting concerns over the US rate hike and slump in emerging economies. 216 World Economic Outlook (OECD) Release Date World US Eurozone Japan China Brazil Jun Nov Source: OECD, Economic Outlook, June November 215. (%) 31

35 Global Financial Markets: Global financial markets are in overall stable condition, but several downside risks still persist including the US rate hike. Market volatility expanded temporarily due to the Paris terror attacks but major advanced economies long-term interest rates remained low on the continuation of easing monetary policies. 3. Long-Term Interest Rates in the US, Germany, and Japan (%) 5 VIX and Emerging Market Bond Index US Germany Japan VIX(left) EMBI(right) Meanwhile, stock prices in major countries rebounded slowly after a plunge in mid-month while the dollar s value went up on projections for an upcoming hike in the US interest rates. Major Currency Revaluation Rates against USD and Changes in Stock Prices (End-October vs. End-November) (%) US Euro Japan China Russia India Indonesia Korea Stock Price Change Currency Revaluation Rate 32

36 경제동향주요지표 Major Indicators of the Korean Economy

37 국내총생산및국내총소득 (21 년불변가격 ) 민간소비및고정투자(21 년불변가격) GDP and GDI Private Consumption and Fixed Investment (at 21 Constant Prices) (at 21 Constant Prices) 8 ( 전년동기대비, % / Year-on-Year % Change) 15 ( 전년동기대비, % / Year-on-Year % Change) IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III 212 국내총생산 (GDP) 국내총소득 (GDI) -15 IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III 212 민간소비 (Private Consumption) 설비투자 (Facilities Investment) 건설투자 (Construction Investment) 상품및서비스수출(21 년불변가격) 상품및서비스수입(21 년불변가격) Exports of Goods and Services Imports of Goods and Services (at 21 Constant Prices) (at 21 Constant Prices) 15 ( 전년동기대비, % / Year-on-Year % Change) 15 ( 전년동기대비, % / Year-on-Year % Change) IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III -5 IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III 상품수출 (Exports of Goods) 서비스수출 (Exports of Services) 상품수입 (Imports of Goods) 서비스수입 (Imports of Services) 3

38 1. 국내총생산 (21 년불변가격) Gross Domestic Product (at 21 Constant Prices) GDP 민간소비 Private Consumption 설비투자 Facilities Investment 국내총생산 건설투자 Construction Investment 총수출 Total Export 총수입 Total Import ( 조원, Trillion Won) 국내총소득 Gross Domestic Income p Ⅲ Ⅳ Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ Ⅰ p Ⅱ p Ⅲ p Ⅳ p Ⅰ p Ⅱ p Ⅲ p 전년동기대비증가율 (%) Percentage Change from the Same Period of the Previous Year p Ⅲ 2.1 (.) 2.6 ( 1.2) -.2 (-2.7) -2.6 ( 1.1) 5. ( 2.3) 3.9 (.) 2.7 ( 1.7) Ⅳ 2.2 (.6) 2.7 (.3) -3.8 (-.2) -6. (-1.7) 5.8 (.8) 1.7 (-1.3) 2.7 (.5) 213 Ⅰ 2.1 (.6) 1.6 (-.1) ( 2.7) 1.3 ( 5.3) 5.6 (.2) -.3 (.7) 2.9 (.6) Ⅱ 2.7 ( 1.) 1.9 (.5) -3.2 (.9) 8.9 (.6) 6. ( 2.3) 1.2 ( 1.5).7 ( 1.8) Ⅲ 3.2 (.9) 1.9 ( 1.1) 2.3 ( 3.5) 7. (-.8) 2.5 (-.7).9 (.).2 ( 1.1) Ⅳ 3.5 (.9) 2.2 (.6) 11.6 (.2) 3.5 (-.8) 3.1 ( 1.3) 5. ( 2.9).3 (.7) 21 Ⅰ p 3.9 ( 1.1) 2.6 (.) 7.2 (-1.).1 ( 5.3).2 ( 1.) 3.2 (-1.1).8 ( 1.2) Ⅱ p 3. (.5) 1.7 (-.) 7.7 ( 1.3).2 (.5) 3. ( 1.3) 2.9 ( 1.2) 3.7 (.7) Ⅲ p 3.3 (.8) 1.5 (.8).2 (.2) 2.3 (.9) 2.2 (-1.7) 2.3 (-.7) 3. (.3) Ⅳ p 2.7 (.3) 1. (.5).2 (.) -1.5 (-7.8) 1. (.).1 (.7) 3.6 ( 1.) 215 Ⅰ p 2.5 (.8) 1.5 (.6) 5.8 (.2).6 ( 7.).1 (.1) 1.9 (.6) 6.2 ( 3.6) Ⅱ p 2.2 (.3) 1.7 (-.2) 5. (.5) 1.6 ( 1.6) -.8 (.3) 1. (.9) 6. ( 1.) Ⅲ p 2.6 ( 1.2) 2. ( 1.1) 6.8 ( 2.) 5.2 (.5).6 (-.2) 3.5 ( 1.3) 7.1 ( 1.) 주 : 1) p 는잠정치. 2) ( ) 는계절조정전기대비증가율. 자료 : 한국은행. Note: 1) p is preliminary. 2) Figures in parentheses indicate percentage changes from the previous period (S.A.). Source: Bank of Korea. 35

39 생산지수 Production Indices 출하지수및재고지수 Shipment and Inventory Indices 6 ( 전년동기대비, % / Year-on-Year % Change) 12 ( 전년동기대비, % / Year-on-Year % Change) 전산업생산지수 (All Industry Production Index) 광공업생산지수 (Industrial Production Index) 서비스업생산지수 (Service Production Index) -12 출하지수 (Shipment Index) 재고지수 (Inventory Index) 경기종합지수순환변동치한국은행 BSI 제조업실적및전망 (S.A.) Cyclical Component of Economic Indices BOK Business Survey Index (Seasonally Adjusted) 15 ( 기준 =1 / Base=1) 9 ( 기준 =1 / Base=1) 동행지수순환변동치 (Composite Coincident Index) 선행지수순환변동치 (Composite Leading Index) 6 12 BSI 제조업실적 (BSI Manufacturing Tendency) BSI 제조업전망 (BSI Manufacturing Future Tendency) 36

40 2. 경기 Economic Activity 전산업 2) All Industry Production 생산지수 Production Indices 광공업 3) Industrial Production 서비스업 Service Production 생산자제품 Producer's Product 출하 Shipment 재고 Inventory 경기종합지수순환변동치 1) Cyclical Component of Economic Indices 동행지수 Composite Coincident Index 선행지수 Composite Leading Index ( 전년동기대비, % / Year-on-Year % Change) 한국은행 BSI 1) ( 제조업, 계절조정) BOK BSI (Manufacturing, S.A.) 실적 Tendency 전망 Future Tendency 제조업평균가동률 Capacity Utilization Rate (%) ) Ⅰ 1.7 (.2).7 (-.3) 2. (.7). (-.) 5.6 (-.) Ⅱ.9 (.).5 (-.6) 1.5 (.1) -.1 (-.3) 8.1 (.7) Ⅲ 1.7 (.5) 1.2 (.1) 2.6 (.9).3 (-.).2 (.8) Ⅳ.6 (.1) -1.9 (-.9) 2.6 ( 1.) -1.1 (.2) -1.8 (-2.1) Ⅰ 1. (.2) -.9 (-.1) 2.8 (.5) -.6 (-.7) 2.8 ( 3.5) Ⅱ.7 (-.3) -1.5 (-.9) 2.5 (-.1) -1.2 (-.7) 5.5 ( 3.3) Ⅲ p 2. ( 1.9) -.2 ( 1.6) 2.8 ( 1.).9 ( 2.) 7.6 ( 2.8) (.) 3. ( 1.3) 2.5 (.2) 2.6 ( 1.6) 5.6 ( 1.2) (.1) 2.6 (-.1) 1.2 (-.6) 1.8 (-.7) 8.7 ( 1.9) (-.8) -2. (-2.5) 1. (.7) -1.5 (-1.2) 6.8 (-1.8) ( 1.6).6 ( 2.3) 2. ( 1.) -.7 ( 1.7) 8.1 (.6) (.). ( 1.6) 2.9 (-.3) 2.2 (.3) 7. ( 1.7) (-.6) -2.6 (-3.3) 2.1 (.6) -3.1 (-2.) 5.7 (-1.1) (-.7) 2. (.1) 2.8 (-.2) 1.8 (.).2 (.3) (.) -3.1 (-1.1) 2.6 (.7) -3.2 (-1.2) 3.5 (-.) (-.1) -3.5 (.3) 2.2 (.2) -2. ( 1.9).5 (-1.) ( 1.3) 1.1 ( 3.) 3.2 (.2) 2. ( 2.) -1.8 (-.3) (-1.9) 1.8 (-3.7) 2.3 (-.5) 2.9 (-3.3).2 (-.1) ( 2.2) -5. ( 2.3) 2.8 ( 1.) -.6 (.6) 2.9 ( 2.7) (-.5).1 (-.2) 3.3 (-.2). (.3) 2.8 (.8) (-.5) -2.6 (-1.3). (.5) -1.6 (-.6) 3. ( 2.1) (-.6) -3. (-1.6) 2. (-.) -2.9 (-1.2) 3.5 (-1.) (.6) 1. ( 2.).9 (-1.) 1. ( 1.) 5.5 ( 2.6) (.6) -3.3 (-.3) 2. ( 1.8) -1.6 (.7).2 (.) p 1.2 (.3). (.1) 2.3 (.5).2 (-.2) 6.2 (.8) p.5 ( 2.5) 2.8 ( 2.2) 3.7 ( 1.1). ( 3.2) 7.6 ( 1.6) p 2. (-1.3) 1.5 (-1.) 3.1 (.2) 2.6 (-1.8) 5. (-2.) 주 : 1) 기준치=1. 2) 21 년이후전산업생산은농림어업제외. 3) 광업, 제조업, 전기 가스업을포함. ) p 는잠정치( 한국은행 BSI 제외). 5) ( ) 는계절조정전기대비증가율. 자료 : 통계청; 한국은행. Note: 1) Base=1. 2) All industry production data since 21 do not include agriculture an fisheris sectors. 3) Mining & Manufacturing, Electricity & Gas Industry. ) p is preliminary (BOK BSI are excluded). 5) Figures in parentheses indicate percentage changes from the previous period (S.A.). Source: Statistics Korea; Bank of Korea. 37

41 민간소비( 소비재) 와소매판매액지수유형별소매판매액지수 Private Consumption(Consumer Goods) and Retail Retail Sales Index by Group of Goods Sales Index 9 ( 전년동기대비, % / Year-on-Year % Change) 2 ( 전년동기대비, % / Year-on-Year % Change) 민간소비 ( 소비재 ) (Private Consumption(Consumer Goods)) 소매판매액지수 (Retail Sales Index) 내구재 (Durable) 준내구재 (Quasi-durable) 비내구재 (Nondurable) 소비재출하지수및소비재수입액 Consumer Goods Shipment Index and Consumer Goods Import 소비자동향조사 Consumer Survey 3 ( 전년동기대비, % / Year-on-Year % Change) 115 ( 기준치 =1 / Base=1) 소비재출하 (Consumer Goods Shipment Index) 소비재수입 (Consumer Goods Import) 97 소비자심리지수 (Composite Consumer Sentiment Index) 소비지출전망 (Prospective Household Spending) 38

42 3. 소비 Consumption Retail Sales Index 소매판매액 유형별지수 by Group of Goods 비내구재준내구재 Nondurable Quasidurable 내구재 Durable 승용차 Automobile 소비재출하 Consumer Goods Shipment Index 소비재수입 1) Consumer Goods Import ( 전년동기대비, % / Year-on-Year % Change) 소비자심리지수 Composite Consumer Sentiment Index (CCSI) 소비자동향조사 2) Consumer Survey 현재경기판단 Current Domestic Economic Conditions 향후경기전망 Prospective Domestic Economic Conditions 소비지출전망 Prospective Household Spending Ⅳ 2.7 (.) Ⅰ.3 (-1.) Ⅱ 1.1 (.8) Ⅲ.5 (.8) Ⅳ 1.1 (.) Ⅰ 2. (.2) Ⅱ.8 (-.2) Ⅲ 1.5 ( 1.3) Ⅳ 1.9 (.) Ⅰ 1.6 (.5) Ⅱ 2.9 (.6) Ⅲ p 3.2 ( 1.1) ( 2.1) ( 1.5) (-2.8) ( 2.6) (-.) ( 1.) (-.3) (-3.) ( 2.) ( 2.1) p 5.6 (.5) p 8.3 ( 3.1) p 주 : 1) 소비재수입액을전월의소비재수입물가지수로실질화. 2) 기준치=1. 3) p 는잠정치( 단, 소비자동향조사는제외). ) ( ) 는계절조정전기대비증가율. 자료 : 한국은행; 통계청; 한국무역협회. Note: 1) Nominal consumer goods import deflated by import price index (consumer goods) of the previous month. 2) Base=1. 3) p is preliminary (Consumer survey is excluded). ) Figures in parentheses indicate percentage changes from the previous period (S.A.). Source: Bank of Korea; Statistics Korea; Korea International Trade Association. 39

43 형태별설비투자지수 Equipment Investment Index by Type 설비투자지수와기계류내수출하지수 Equipment Investment Index and Domestic Machinery Shipment Index 5 ( 전년동기대비, % / Year-on-Year % Change) 2 ( 전년동기대비, % / Year-on-Year % Change) 기계류 (Machinery) 운송장비 (Transport Equipment) 설비투자지수 (Equipment Investment Index) 기계류내수출하지수 (Domestic Machinery Shipment Index) 내수용자본재수입액과기계류수입액 Import of Capital Good for Domestic Demand and Machinery Import 국내기계수주 Domestic Machinery Orders Received 3 ( 전년동기대비, % / Year-on-Year % Change) 16 ( 전년동기대비, % / Year-on-Year % Change) 내수용자본재수입액 (Import of Capital Good for Domestic Demand) 기계류수입액 (Machinery Import) -8 총수주액 (Total) 민간수주액 (Private)

44 . 설비투자 Equipment Investment Equipment Investment Index 설비투자지수 기계류 Machinery 운송장비 Transport Equipment 기계류내수출하지수 1) Domestic Machinery Shipment Index 기계류수입액 2) Machinery Import Domestic Machinery Orders Received ( 십억원, Billion Won, 21=1) 국내기계수주 3) 공공 Public 민간 Private ,52 23,78 2,58 2, ,193 26,85 5,12 21,73 21 Ⅲ ,53 7,687 2,78,979 Ⅳ ,93 6, , Ⅰ ,5 6,53 5 6,8 Ⅱ ,39 7,5 93 6,561 Ⅲ p ,831 5, , ,219 1, , ,18 2, , ,5 1, , ,159 2, , ,222 1, , ,156 2, , ,711 2, , ,655 2, , ,2 2, , ,213 2, , ,252 1, ,52 9 p ,366 1, ,811 1 p ,686 2,7 12 1,95 전년동기대비증가율 (%) Percentage Change from the Same Period of the Previous Year Ⅲ 1.5 ( -.9) ( 3.9) Ⅳ 5. ( 8.6) (-26.) Ⅰ 8. ( -1.6) ( 6.2) Ⅱ 5.2 ( -1.5) ( 1.) Ⅲ p 1. (.7) (-12.1) ( -.) ( 6.2) (11.) ( 16.2) ( 2.1) (-2.2) ( -7.7) ( 31.9) ( 3.) (-17.8) ( -2.) ( 16.7) ( -1.7) ( 18.9) ( -1.) (-2.) (.3) ( -.) ( 1.) ( -2.9) ( -.9) (.2) p 7.3 (.3) ( 7.6) p 12. (-.8) ( 6.) 주 : 1) 선박제외. 2) 백만달러. 3) 선박제외, 21 년불변가격. ) p 는잠정치( 단, 기계류수입액은제외). 5) ( ) 는계절조정전기대비증가율. 자료 : 한국은행; 통계청; 무역협회. Note: 1) Vessels are excluded. 2) Million US Dollars. 3) Vessels are excluded, at 21 Constant Prices. ) p is preliminary (Machinery Import is excluded). 5) Figures in parentheses indicate percentage changes from the previous period (S.A.). Source: Bank of Korea; Statistics Korea; International Trade Association. 1

45 건설기성액( 불변가격) 및국내건설수주공사종류별건설기성액( 불변가격) Construction Completed(at 21 Constant Prices) Value of Construction Completed by Type and Construction Orders Received (at 21 Constant Prices) 2 ( 전년동기대비, % / Year-on-Year % Change) 18 3 ( 전년동기대비, % / Year-on-Year % Change) 건설기성액 ( 좌 ) / Value of Cons. Completed (left) 국내건설수주 ( 우 ) / Cons. Orders Received (right) 건축 (Building) 토목 (Civil Engineering) 건축허가면적및건축착공면적 Building Construction Permits and Building Construction Initiated 주택건설및미분양주택수 Housing Construction and Number of Unsold Houses 1 ( 전년동기대비, % / Year-on-Year % Change) 15 ( 전년동기비, % / Y-on-Y %) ( 전월비, 호 / M-on-M Unit) 건축허가면적 (Building Construction Permits) 건축착공면적 (Building Construction Initiated) 주택건설 ( 좌 ) / Housing Construction (left) 미분양 ( 우 ) / Num. of Unsold Houses (right) 2

46 5. 건설투자 Construction Investment 건설기성액 1) Value of Construction Completed 합계 Total 공사종류별 By Type 건축 Building 토목 Civil Engineering 국내건설수주 Construction Orders Received 건축허가면적 Building Construction Permits ( 십억원, 천m2, 호, Billion Won, Thousand m2, Unit) 건축착공면적 Building Construction Initiated 주택건설 Housing Construction 미분양주택수 3) Number of Unsold Houses 213 9,36 51,879 38,67 77, ,2 12,1,116 61, ,66 55,926 33,72 89, ,5 111, ,251, Ⅲ 21,62 13,676 7,786 2,35 36,566 27,76 131,365 39,168 Ⅳ 2,571 1,77 9,8 26,39 37,817 32,22 163,923, Ⅰ 19,39 12,331 7,59 2,821 33,999 28, ,772 28,897 Ⅱ 22,899 1,538 8,361 35,163 6,226 2,76 181,38 3,68 Ⅲ p 22,71 15,87 7,65 36,5 55,688 36,2 2,6 32, ,86,72 2,78 7,755 12,18 1,312 5,75, ,571,71 2,857 6,27 1,952 1,65 9,181 39, ,51 5,355,159 12,29 13,751 7,233 69,267, ,172 3,9 2,271 7,216 9,619 7,573 33,271 36, ,16 3,9 2,26 5,367 9,591 7,23 33,31 33, ,113,531 2,582 12,238 1,728 13,222 52,2 28,897 7,61,526 2,535 9,8 15,816 13,79 51,35 28,93 5 7,112,71 2,2 12,556 1,732 13,71 56,861 28,12 6 8,725 5,31 3,2 13,559 16,27 15,79 73,12 3,68 7 7,238,926 2,312 8,68 23, 12,217 82,836 33,177 8 p 7,28,825 2,55 8,96 16,651 13,25 69,269 31,698 9 p 8,223 5,336 2,886 18,829 17,81 11,6 87,955 32,52 1 p 7,781 5,29 2,86 9,889 17,159 18,131 6,2 32,221 전년동기대비증가율 (%) Percentage Change from the Same Period of the Previous Year , , Ⅲ -1.9 (-2.7) ( 22.) ,89 Ⅳ -5.9 (-3.9) (-29.) , Ⅰ -2. (.8) ( 5.9) ,82 Ⅱ -3.9 (-2.7) ( 13.) ,171 Ⅲ p 6. ( 7.6) ( 18.6) , (-.1) (-1.9) (-1.6) (-23.) (.5) ( 15.) (.3) ( 37.6) , (.9) (-16.6) , (-7.2) ( 7.2) , (-2.1) (-23.1) ( 2.2) ( 3.6) (.1) (-26.6) , (.) ( -3.) p 3.5 ( 2.6) ( 13.) ,79 9 p 13.9 ( 5.) ( 77.8) p 3.9 (-7.8) (-5.8) 주 : 1) 21 년불변가격. 2) p 는잠정치. 3) 전기대비증감. ) ( ) 는계절조정전기대비증가율. 자료 : 통계청; 국토교통부. Note: 1) At 21 Constant Prices. 2) p is preliminary. 3) Month-on-month number changes. ) Figures in parentheses indicate percentage changes from the previous period (S.A.). Source: Statistics Korea; Ministry of Land Infrastructure and Transport. 3

47 수출및수입 Exports and Imports 품목별수출 Exports by Item 1 ( 전년동기대비, % / Year-on-Year % Change) 3 ( 전년동기대비, % / Year-on-Year % Change) 수출 (Exports) 수입 (Imports) - ICT(ICT) 자동차및부품 (Automobiles & Parts) 석유류 (Petrochemicals & Petroleum Products) 일평균수출및수입액 Average Exports and Imports per Day 수출입가격및교역조건 Export and Import Prices, and Terms of Trade 21 ( 억달러 / Hundred Million US Dollars) 15 ( 전년동기대비, % / Year-on-Year % Change) 일평균수출액 (Average Exports per Day) 일평균수입액 (Average Imports per Day) -25 수출가격 (Export Price) 수입가격 (Import Price) 순상품교역조건 (Terms of Trade)

48 6-1. 수출, 수입및교역조건 Exports, Imports and Terms of Trade 수출 Exports 수입 Imports 무역수지 Balance of Trade 수출물가 ( 계약시점 ) Export Price (Time of Contract Formation) 수입물가 ( 계약시점 ) Import Price (Time of Contract Formation) ( 억달러, Hundred Million US Dollars, 21=1) 수출가격 ( 통관시점 ) Export Price (Customs Clearance Point) 수입가격 ( 통관시점 ) Import Price (Customs Clearance Point) 교역조건 Terms of Trade 212 5,79 5, ,596 5, ,727 5, Ⅲ 1,18 1, Ⅳ 1,77 1, Ⅰ 1,33 1, Ⅱ 1,351 1, Ⅲ 1,283 1, p p 전년동기대비증가율 (%) Percentage Change from the Same Period of the Previous Year Ⅲ Ⅳ Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ p p 주 : p 는잠정치. 자료 : 관세청; 산업통상자원부; 한국은행; OECD. Note: p is preliminary. Source: Korea Customs Service; Ministry of Trade, Industry & Energy; Bank of Korea; OECD. 5