2017년 10월 경제동향_기자배포용.hwp

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2 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_ 총괄 김현욱 국내총생산경기소비설비투자건설투자대외거래노동시장물가금융시장재정세계경제 정대희구희일권규호한일수박종호구희일조덕상김슬기오지윤이유진최우진황세진김지운정유경천소라노시연황순주권수연이태석이지현이상규류지영이우열 본자료는 KDI 홈페이지를통해서도보실수있습니다.

3 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 Contents 주요경제지표 Major Economic Indicators 요약및평가 Summary and Assessment 경제동향주요지표 Major Indicators of the Korean Economy 1. 국내총생산(21 년불변가격) 39 Gross Domestic Product (at 21 Constant Prices) 2. 경기 41 Economic Activity 3. 소비 43 Consumption 4. 설비투자 45 Equipment Investment 5. 건설투자 47 Construction Investment 6-1. 수출, 수입및교역조건 49 Exports, Imports and Terms of Trade 6-2. 경상수지및금융계정 51 Current Account and Financial Account 7. 고용및임금 53 Employment and Wage 8. 물가 55 Price Indices 9-1. 금융시장 (I) 57 Financial Market (I) 9-2. 금융시장 (II) 59 Financial Market (II) 1-1. 세계경제동향 (I) 61 Major Indicators of the World Economy (I) 1-2. 세계경제동향 (II) 63 Major Indicators of the World Economy (II)

4 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 주요경제지표 Major Economic Indicators ( 전년동기대비증가율, % / Year-on-Year % Change) Ⅳ Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ 전산업생산 All Industry Production 광공업생산 Industrial Production 서비스업생산 Service Production 소매판매액 Retail Sales Index 설비투자지수 Equipment Investment Index 건설기성액 ( 불변 ) Value of Construction Completed (Constant Price) 수출 ( 통관 ) Exports (f.o.b.) 수입 ( 통관 ) Imports (c.i.f.) 무역수지 ( 십억달러 ) Balance of Trade (Billion US Dollars) 실업률 Unemployment Rate 취업자수 Number of Employed 소비자물가 Consumer Price 국고채 3-year Treasury Bonds 종합주가지수 KOSPI 원/ 달러환율 Won/Dollar Exchange Rate OECD 경기선행지수 OECD Composite Leading Indicator 유가 ( 두바이, 달러 / 배럴 ) Oil Prices (Dubai, US$/Barrel) ,961 2,26 2,26 2,16 2,392 2,394 2,43 2,363 2,394 1, ,27.7 1,27.7 1, , , ,119. 1, , 주: 국고채수익률 종합주가지수 원/ 달러환율은기말기준, 유가( 두바이) 는기간평균기준임.

5 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 요약및평가 최근우리경제는수출과제조업중심의개선추세를유지하고있으나, 내수의회복세는여전히지연되는모습수출호조에따라반도체를비롯한제조업생산이증가하면서생산측면의경기지표들은다소개선 8 월중서비스업생산이완만한증가세를유지한가운데, 전환되면서생산측면의경기개선을뒷받침 광공업생산도증가로 아울러, 조업일수변동을고려한일평균수출액이 9월중에도높은증가율을 기록하는등전반적인수출호조세는지속되는것으로판단됨. 그러나소비증가세가축소되는등내수경기는완만하게둔화되는모습 7월중일시적요인에따라상승했던소매판매증가율이 8월에들어비교적 큰폭으로하락하였으며, 소비심리도점차약화되고있음. 건설기성증가율이완만해지는가운데, 관련선행지표는부진을지속 다만, 설비투자는반도체제조용장비를중심으로비교적양호한증가세를지속 하면서여타내수부문의부진을일부보완하는모습 별도의언급이없을경우모든증가율은전년동월대비기준임. 1

6 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 경기 : 광공업생산및출하가소폭확대되는등최근부진한모습을보였던생산관련 지표들이다소개선되는모습 8 월중전산업생산은광공업생산이증가로전환하면서전월(2.%) 보다증가폭이소폭 확대된 2.6% 의증가율을기록 광공업생산은전자부품 (17.8%) 의증가폭이확대되고자동차(14.8%) 도높은증가율을기록 하면서전월(-.2%) 의감소에서 2.7% 증가로전환 서비스업생산은금융 보험업 (4.9%), 보건 사회복지 (6.6%) 등을중심으로전월(2.2%) 에 이어비교적완만한 2.1% 의증가율을기록 한편, 제조업평균가동률은전월(73.1%) 보다낮은 72.% 를기록하면서재차하락 광공업생산지수 (3MA) 및서비스업생산지수 (3MA) 6 ( 전년동기대비, %, 3 개월이동평균 ) 광공업생산지수 (3MA) 서비스업생산지수 (3MA) 제조업출하는수출출하가증가로전환되면서전월(.2%) 보다증가폭이확대된 2.9% 의증가율을기록하였고, 제조업재고율은전월보다소폭상승 내수출하는자동차(15.3%) 를중심으로 2.7% 증가하였고, 수출출하는전자부품 (27.2%) 을 중심으로전월(-.7%) 의감소에서 3.% 증가로전환 제조업재고율 ( 재고/ 출하비율) 은출하의개선에도불구하고자동차 (9.4%) 를중심으로재고가 증가하면서전월(119.2%) 보다소폭증가한 12.7% 를기록 2

7 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 제조업출하지수(3MA) 와재고율 6 ( 전년동기대비, %, 3 개월이동평균 ) (%) 제조업출하지수 ( 좌, 3MA) 제조업재고율 ( 우 ) 동행지수순환변동치는서비스업생산지수, 내수출하지수등이증가하며전월(1.7) 보다소폭상승한 1.8을기록 한편, 선행지수순환변동치는구인구직비율, 소비자기대지수가하락하였으나건설수주액, 코스피지수등이상승하며전월과동일한 11.8을기록 동행지수순환변동치와선행지수순환변동치 12. ( 기준 =1) 동행지수순환변동치 선행지수순환변동치 3

8 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 소비 : 소매판매증가세가축소되고, 소비자심리지수도전월에이어하락세를지속하는 등소비개선추세가다소둔화되는모습 8 월중소매판매액은전월(3.5%) 보다증가폭이축소된.8% 의증가율을기록 형태별로는비내구재(-1.1%) 와준내구재(-1.7%) 가감소하였으며, 내구재는통신기기및 컴퓨터(-4.2%) 의부진을중심으로전월(11.8%) 보다낮은 5.6% 의증가율을기록 계절조정전월대비로도전월(.1%) 의증가에서 1.% 감소로전환하는등부진한모습 서비스업생산은전월(2.2%) 보다소폭낮은 2.1% 의증가율을기록하며증가세가점차 완만해지고있음. 아울러, 민간소비와관련이높은도소매업은전월(1.4%) 보다증가폭이축소된.5% 상승 에그쳤고, 음식 숙박업은전월과동일하게 3.9% 감소 9월중소비자심리지수는 17.7 로기준치(1) 를상회하는수준이지만, 현재및미래 경기에대한비관적의견이증가하면서전월보다 2.2p 하락함. 현재생활형편 (94 94) 과생활형편전망 (12 12) 이전월과동일한가운데, 현재경기판단 (93 87) 과향후경기전망 (14 96) 은전월보다비교적크게하락 소매판매액지수및소비자심리지수 ( 전년동기대비, %) ( 기준 =1) 소매판매액지수 ( 좌 ) 소비자심리지수 ( 우 ) 92 4

9 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 설비투자 : 설비투자지수증가세가소폭둔화되기는하였으나, 투자개선추세는여전히지속되고있는것으로판단됨. 반도체부문중심의설비 8 월중설비투자지수는기계류의증가폭이축소되면서전월(25.1%) 보다하락한 13.2% 의증가율을기록 설비투자지수 ( 전년동월대비, %): ( 17년 6 월) 18.6 (7 월) 25.1 (8 월) 13.2 기계류( 전년동월대비, %): ( 17년 6 월) 4.8 (7 월) 32.6 (8 월) 15.3 운송장비( 전년동월대비, %): ( 17년 6 월) (7 월) 7.8 (8 월) 7.3 다만, 9월중기계류수입액증가율이반도체제조용장비수입액이확대됨에따라 7월과유사한 33.9% 를기록하면서기계류중심의설비투자증가세가지속될것으로판단됨. 반도체제조용장비수입액 ( 전년동월대비, %): ( 17년 7 월) (8 월) 51.2 (9 월) 기계류수입액( 전년동월대비, %): ( 17년 7 월) 31.2 (8 월) 1.9 (9 월) 33.9 설비투자지수 (3MA) 및반도체설비투자관련지표(3MA) 4 ( 전년동기대비, %, 3개월이동평균 ) 설비투자지수 ( 좌, 3MA) 특수산업용기계수주액 ( 우, 3MA) 반도체제조용장비수입액 ( 우, 3MA) -12 5

10 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 건설투자 : 건설기성증가율이완만해지는가운데, 건설수주등선행지표의부진이지속 되고있어향후건설투자증가세는다소둔화될것으로전망 8 월중건설기성( 불변) 은건축부문의증가세가완만해지고토목부문의부진이심화되 면서전월(13.2%) 보다낮은 8.1% 의증가율을기록 공종별로는토목부문이 17.% 감소하여전월(-9.1%) 보다하락폭이확대된가운데, 건축 부문도전월(22.3%) 보다증가폭이소폭하락한 18.2% 의증가율을기록 건설수주( 경상) 는토목부문을중심으로부진을지속한가운데, 착공면적도감소세를지속 건축허가면적과건축 건설수주는건축부문이.9% 증가에그친가운데, 토목부문이전월(-31.3%) 에이어 14.9% 감소하면서 3.4% 의증가율을기록 건축허가면적은주거용및상업용모두감소하면서 1.% 하락하였고, 건축착공면적은 주거용(1.8%) 이소폭증가하였으나그외부문이여전히감소하면서 1.1% 감소 건설기성액(3MA) 과국내건설수주액 (3MA) ( 전년동기대비, %, 3 개월이동평균 ) 건설기성액 ( 좌, 3MA) 건설수주액 ( 우, 3MA) 6

11 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 수출 : 글로벌경기의호조로수출여건이개선되는가운데, 9월중수출은조업일수 증가에주로기인하여예외적으로높은증가율을기록 9 월중수출( 금액기준) 은전월(17.3%) 보다큰폭으로확대된 35.% 의증가율을 기록 품목별로는반도체(7.%), 철강(17.2%), 자동차(57.6%) 등대부분의품목에서양호한 모습을보였으며, 지역별로도미국(28.9%), 중국(23.4%), EU(23.%) 등모든지역에서 높은증가율을나타냄. 조업일수증가(+3 일) 의영향을배제한일평균수출액도전월(17.3%) 에비해소폭높은 19.4% 증가 * 일평균수출액( 전년동월대비, %): ( 17년 7 월) 19.5 (8 월) 17.3 (9 월) 19.4 * 다만, 1 월초장기연휴를앞둔조기통관의효과를감안할경우, 일평균수출액증가율은 19.4% 보다낮을것으로추산됨. 수입은주요에너지자원과자본재를중심으로 21.7% 증가하며높은증가세유지 1차산품이주요에너지자원을중심으로 27.% 증가하였고, 자본재는반도체제조용장비의 증가폭이대폭확대되면서전월(25.7%) 에이어 4.9% 의높은증가율을기록 무역수지는전년동월(68.6 억달러) 보다크게확대된 137.5억달러의흑자를기록 총수출 일평균수출 4 ( 전년동기대비, %) 4 ( 전년동기대비, %) 총수출 일평균수출 7

12 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 8 월중국제수지 경상수지는상품수지를중심으로전년동월 (5.3 억달러) 보다확대된 6.6억달러의 흑자를기록 상품수지는수출(15.8%) 이수입(12.1%) 보다큰폭으로증가함에따라전년동월 (69.4 억달러) 보다흑자폭이확대된 93.1억달러를기록 서비스수지는운송수지가적자로전환(.3억달러 -2.7 억달러) 되고, 여행수지도중 국인관광객의급감(-74.1%) 으로적자폭(-12.8 억달러 억달러) 이확대되면서 전년동월(-15. 억달러) 보다적자폭이확대된 23.3억달러를기록 본원소득수지는배당소득수지악화등에기인하여전년동월(5.3 억달러) 의흑자에서.8 억달러의적자로전환되었고, 이전소득수지는전년동월(-9.4 억달러) 보다적자폭이 소폭축소된 8.4억달러를기록 계절조정경상수지(3MA) 와교역조건(3MA) 15 ( 억달러, 3 개월이동평균 ) ( 전년동기대비, %, 3 개월이동평균 ) 계절조정경상수지 ( 좌, 3MA) 교역조건 ( 우, 3MA) 금융계정은전월(97.7 억달러) 보다축소된 91.3억달러의순자산증가를기록 직접투자는내국인의해외투자가빠르게증가하면서전월(4. 억달러) 보다확대된 15.8 억달러를기록 증권투자는외국인의국내투자가감소로전환되어전월(32.1 억달러) 보다크게확대된 억달러를기록 기타투자는전월(62.6 억달러) 의순자산증가에서 41.9억달러감소로전환 8

13 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 노동시장 : 기상여건등으로건설업에서취업자증가폭이크게축소되면서전반적인 고용개선이지연되고있음. 8월중취업자는전년동월대비 21.2 만명(.8%) 이증가하여전월(31.3 만명, 1.2%) 보다 증가폭이크게축소됨. 산업별로는제조업(5.만명 2.5 만명) 에서취업자증가폭이소폭축소되었고, 서비스업 (13.3만명 14. 만명) 에서는기저효과의지속으로전월과유사한낮은증가폭을유지한 가운데, 강우일수증가등으로건설업(1.1만명 3.4 만명) 에서의증가폭이크게축소됨. 종사상지위별로는상용직(38.8 만명 46. 만명) 의증가폭이확대되고, 임시 일용직 (-11.9만명 -2.4 만명) 이크게감소하는가운데, 자영업자 (5.만명 -.3 만명) 의증가폭도 감소로전환하면서질적측면에서는고용여건개선이이어지고있는것으로판단됨. 계절조정경제활동참가율 (62.8% 63.%) 은전월대비.2%p 상승하였으며, 계절조정 고용률은전월과동일한 6.6% 를기록 계절조정실업률은전월대비.2%p 상승한 3.8% 를기록 15~64세의계절조정고용률은전월대비.1%p 하락한 66.5% 를기록 주요산업별취업자증감 6 ( 전년동월대비, 천명 ) 전산업서비스업제조업건설업 9

14 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 물가 : 9 월중소비자물가는농축수산물가격의상승폭이축소되면서전월(2.6%) 보다 낮은 2.1% 의상승률을기록 상품물가는전월(3.6%) 보다하락한 2.4% 의상승률을기록 농축수산물가격은채소등농산물가격 (16.2% 5.2%) 의상승폭이축소됨에따라전월 (12.2%) 보다낮은 4.8% 상승 공업제품가격은석유류가격 (3.6% 6.1%) 의상승폭이확대되며전월(1.%) 보다상승한 1.2% 의상승률을기록 전기 수도 가스는지난해 3/4분기의한시적전기료인하에의한기저효과로전월과동일한 8.% 상승 서비스물가는전월과동일한 1.8% 의상승률을보임. 농산물및석유류제외근원물가는전월(1.8%) 보다낮은전년동월대비 1.6% 상승 한편, 아파트매매가격은전월(.2%) 보다낮은전월대비.1% 상승한반면, 아파트 전세가격은전월과동일한전월대비.1% 의상승률을기록 소비자물가추이및부문별기여도 4 3 ( 전년동기대비, %, %p) 농축수산물공업제품서비스 전기 수도 가스소비자물가근원물가 주: 부문별. 기여도의합은반올림으로총지수의증감률과일치하지않을수있음 1

15 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 금융시장 : 금리와 CDS 프리미엄이상승했으나, 환율과주가는비교적안정된모습 9 월중금리는미국연준의보유자산축소가진행되고주요국의금리가동반상승하 면서연중최고치를기록 국고채금리(3 년물월말기준, %p): ( 16년 9 월) 1.25 ( 17년 (6 월) 1.7 (7 월) 1.72 (8 월) 1.75 (9 월) 월) 1.66 북한의 6차핵실험등지정학적위험이부각되면서 CDS 프리미엄도빠르게상승 CDS 프리미엄(5 년물월말기준, bp): ( 16년 9 월) 4 ( 17년 5 월) 56 (6 월) 58 (7 월) 58 (8 월) 6 (9 월) 74 원/1,145.4 달러환율과, 종합주가지수는지정학적위험에도불구하고각각원 2,394.5 으로전월과유사한수준을기록 한편, 8월중가계대출은 8.8 조원증가하여전월(9.5 조원) 대비증가폭이소폭축소된 가운데, 인터넷전문은행의신용대출을중심으로비주택대출이크게확대되어 3.4조원 증가 은행의비주택대출( 기간중증가액, 조원): ( 14년 8 월). ( 15년 8 월) 1.7 ( 16년 8 월) 2.5 ( 17년 6 월) 1.9 ( 17년 7 월) 1.9 ( 17년 8 월) 3.4 금리및 CDS 프리미엄 2. (%) (bp) 국고채 3 년 ( 좌 ) CDS 5 년 ( 우 ) 2 11

16 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 세계경제 : 세계경제는미국의통화긴축과정치적불확실성등위험요인이상존하나, 선진국의실물지표개선으로경기회복에대한기대감이점차확대되는모습 산업생산과교역량증가세가지속되고심리지수와경기관련선행지표도함께상승 하는등글로벌경제전반이대체로양호한흐름을유지하고있음. 세계산업생산과교역량세계제조업심리지수와 OECD+NME 선행지수 6 ( 전년동기대비, %, 3 개월이동평균 ) 54 ( 기준 =5) ( 기준 =1) 세계산업생산 세계교역량 세계 PMI( 좌 ) OECD+NME 선행지수 ( 우 ) 선진국경제는내수및제조업심리가개선되며경기회복에대한기대가높아진가운데, 신흥국의경우에도대내외수요확대로수출과소비증가세가유지됨. 주요선진국의제조업심리지수 주요신흥국의수출 65 ( 기준 =5) 4 ( 전년동기대비, %, 3 개월이동평균 ) 미국 ISM 제조업 유로존제조업 PMI 중국러시아브라질 12

17 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 미국경제는생산등경기관련지표가다소둔화되고고용도감소로전환되었으나, 민간소비를중심으로완만한성장세를유지하고있음. 허리케인의여파로경기가일시적으로둔화될가능성이높지만, 긍정적시각이유지되면서통화정책정상화기조는지속될전망 미국경제전반에대한 미국의산업생산과소매판매 미국의취업자수와근원개인소비지출물가 4 ( 전년동기대비, %) 8 ( 전기대비, 만명 ) 4 ( 전년동기대비, %) 산업생산 ( 좌 ) 소매판매 ( 우 ) 취업자수 ( 좌 ) 근원개인소비지출물가 ( 우 ) 유로존경제는주요실물지표가양호한흐름을보이고심리지수도상승하는등회복 세가완만하게확대되고있는것으로판단됨. 7 월들어소매판매증가세가둔화되고물가상승률(8 월: 1.5%) 도여전히낮은수준에 머물러있으나, 경기관련지표와수출은전월에이어높은증가세를유지 유로존의산업생산과소매판매 유로존의수출과경기체감지수 5 ( 전년동기대비, %) ( 전년동기대비, %, 3개월이동평균 ) 15 ( 기준 =1) 산업생산 소매판매 수출 ( 좌 ) 경기체감지수 ( 우 ) 13

18 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 일본경제는경기관련지표가개선추세를지속하고수출도예상을상회하는높은 증가율을기록하면서완만한경기회복세가유지되고있음을시사 8 월중생산(5.4%) 과자본재출하(9.7%) 가높은증가세를유지하고, 미국과아시아신흥 국을중심으로수출(18.1%) 증가폭도크게확대 일본의산업생산과소매판매 일본의수출과수입 9 ( 전년동기대비, %) 3 ( 전년동기대비, %) 산업생산 소매판매 수출 수입 중국경제는소비가높은증가세를유지하고선행지표도개선추세를지속하고있으나, 투자가부진한모습을보이면서성장세는완만하게둔화될전망 8월중소매판매가 1.1% 증가한반면, 고정자산투자 (7.8%) 는제조업투자의부진으로 증가폭이축소 중국의산업생산및소매판매 중국의고정자산투자와제조업심리지수 14 ( 전년동기대비, %) ( 전년동기대비, %) 14 ( 기준 =5) 산업생산 소매판매 고정자산투자 ( 좌 ) 제조업 PMI( 우 ) 14

19 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 국제유가는산유국의감산효과로원유공급이줄어들고, 세계경제의회복으로수요가 예상을상회할것으로전망되면서배럴당 55달러내외까지상승 다만, 대다수, 217 전망기관들은국제원유시장내불확실성이높은것으로평가하면서년 연평균유가가 5달러수준에머물것으로예상 일부비철금속가격이하락하였으나, 유가와곡물가격이비교적큰폭으로상승함에따라 CRB 지수등주요원자재가격지수는상승세를지속 유가와 CRB지수주요원자재가격 ( 달러 / 배럴 ) 7 (1967=1) 21 1 ( 전월대비, %) Dubai( 좌 ) CRB( 우 ) 15-1 니켈 구리 주석 알루미늄 옥수수 아연 납 소맥 Dubai 주: 217년 8월말대비 1월 9 일기준. 한편, 주요선진국의회복세가예상을상회하고일부자원수출국가도경기침체에서 벗어나면서세계경제의완만한성장세는유지될것으로판단됨. IMF 도정부지출확대와완화적통화정책, 최근의세계교역량및생산증가등을반영하여 217년과 18년에세계경제가각각 3.6% 및 3.7% 의성장률을기록할것으로전망 다만, 미국의정책불확실성과보호무역주의확산우려등위험요인은여전히상존한것으로 평가 주요국의 217~18 년도경제성장률전망(IMF) (%) 세계미국유로존일본중국인도브라질러시아한국 217년 년 자료 : IMF, World Economic Outlook, October

20 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 국제금융시장 : 미국의추가금리인상우려로시장금리와달러화의가치가상승하였으나, 금융시장내투자심리를반영하는지표들은대체로안정적인모습 미연준이보유자산축소를발표하고연내추가금리인상가능성도다시높아짐에 따라, 월중반이후선진국의장기금리가상승하고달러화도강세로전환 주요국장기금리 달러화대비주요국의통화절상률 3. (%) 6 (%) 년 9 월 8 일 217 년 1 월 9 일 미국독일일본 -9 터키 남아공 멕시코 인도 일본 인도네시아 유로존 중국 브라질 러시아 주: 217년 8 월말대비. 그러나세계경제의성장세가완만하게확대되면서주요국주가지수가상승세를지속하는가운데, VIX와신흥시장채권스프레드도낮은수준을유지 주요국의주가변화율 VIX지수와신흥시장채권스프레드 9 (%) 멕시코 대만 인도 중국 인도네시아 미국 러시아 일본 유로존 브라질 VIX( 좌 ) 신흥시장채권스프레드 ( 우 ) 주: 217년 8월말대비 1월 9 일기준. 16

21 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 부동산시장전문가설문조사(217 년 3/4 분기) * 3/4 분기전문가설문조사는 실수요보호와단기투기수요억제를통한주택시장안정화방안 (8.2) 및그후속조치 (9.5) 가발표된이후인 9월 15일부터 9월 2일까지의기간에실시되었음. 부동산시장전문가들은 3/4 분기부동산시장을 보통으로 평가하고있으나 1년 후시장상황에대해서는전분기에비해다소부정적으로전망하고있음. 응답자들은 3/4분기부동산시장이대체로평균적인상태를유지하고있다고평가 하였으나, 응답분포는전반적으로전분기에비해나쁜쪽으로이동 현재부동산시장을평균적인상태와비교하는질문에대하여 보통 이라고응답한 비중은 52% 로전분기(44%) 에이어여전히가장높았고, 나쁨 또는 매우나쁨 으로응답한비중은 2/4분기 14% 에서 3/4분기 26% 로증가함. 1 년후부동산시장전망에대해서는현재와비슷하거나나빠질것이라는의견이 많은가운데, 좋을것으로예상하는비중은전분기보다크게감소함. 향후부동산전망에대해서 현재와비슷 이 5%, 나쁨 이 44%, 좋음 이 6% 로 나타났으며, 전분기에비해 좋음 의비중이 2%p 감소함. 현재부동산시장평가 향후부동산시장전망 7 (%) 7 (%) 매우나쁨나쁨보통좋음매우좋음 매우나쁨 나쁨 현재와 비슷 좋음 매우좋음 217 년 1/4 분기 217 년 2/4 분기 217 년 3/4 분기 218 년 1/4 분기 218 년 2/4 분기 218 년 3/4 분기 * 부동산시장전문가설문조사는학계, 연구원, 금융기관및건설사등전문가 1 여명을대상으로매분기실시함. 17

22 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 한편, 부동산정책선호도조사에서응답자들은최근강화된주택시장규제를 유지하거나더강화하는방향을선호함. LTV 및 DTI 수준에대해서는 현행유지 가각각 61% 와 69% 로가장높 았으며, 완화보다는강화하자는비중이더많았음. 투기과열지구지정등선별적수요규제에대해서도현수준의규제를유지하 자는의견이 79% 로다수를차지함. 아울러향후매매가격급등지역발생시추가지정이필요하다는의견이 지정할필요가없다는의견(28%) 보다높게나타남. 72% 로 보유세및거래세등부동산세금에대해서는현재수준을유지하자는의견이 가장많았으며, 취등록세이외의세금에대해서는강화의견의비중이완화 의견보다높게나타남. 217 년 3/4분기부동산시장설문조사세부항목별결과 ( 단위: %) 현재부동산시장평가 매우낮음낮음적정높음매우높음 매매가격 전세가격 년후부동산시장전망 5% 이상하락 2.5~5% 미만하락 2.5% 미만하락 전년과동일 2.5% 미만상승 2.5~5% 미만상승 5% 이상상승 매매가격 전세가격 부동산정책선호도 금융 LTV 완화 (12%) 현행유지 (61%) 강화 (27%) DTI 완화 (1%) 현행유지 (69%) 강화 (21%) 수요현재투기지역및투기과열지구완화 (21%) 현행유지 (79%) 향후급등지역에대하여추가지정지정할필요없음 (28%) 추가지정필요 (72%) 세제보유세완화 ( 9%) 현행유지 (59%) 강화 (32%) 양도세완화 (22%) 현행유지 (47%) 강화 (31%) 취등록세완화 (32%) 현행유지 (58%) 강화 (1%) 종합부동산세완화 (14%) 현행유지 (6%) 강화 (26%) 임대소득세유예기간연장 (23%) 현행유지 (45%) 부과 (32%) 18

23 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 Summary and Assessment Korea maintained the economic improvement driven by exports and the manufacturing industry but a recovery in domestic demand is still lagging. Production in manufacturing such as semiconductors increased on favorable export momentum, boosting economic indicators on the production side. August s services production maintained a modest growth while that in mining and manufacturing industry turned to an increase, supporting the economic improvement in production. Moreover, the favorable export momentum appears to be have been sustained overall with average daily exports (adjusted for changes in the number of workdays) recording high growths in September. However, consumption growth abated, hinting at a gradual moderation in domestic demand. Growth in retail sales ascended in July owing to temporary factors but plummeted in August while consumer sentiment weakened gradually. The value of construction completed exhibited slowing growth while relevant leading indicators remained sluggish. Meanwhile, facilities investment maintained relatively strong growth driven by semiconductor manufacturing equipment, partially making up for the setbacks in other domestic demand. All growth figures are on a year-on-year basis unless otherwise noted. This document is an English translation of the original Korean version; the Korean version takes precedence in case of any ambiguities or discrepancies. 19

24 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 Economic Activity: Mining and manufacturing production and shipments exhibited slight increases in growth, signaling some improvement in production-related indicators from the recent slump. August's all industry production recorded a 2.6% growth, slightly up from last month (2.%) as mining and manufacturing production swung to an increase. Production growth in mining and manufacturing swung to a 2.7% increase from last month s decrease (-.2%) as that in electronic parts accelerated (17.8%) and that in motor vehicles surged (14.8%). Services production growth recorded a relatively modest increase of 2.1%, up from last month (2.2%) led by financial and insurance (4.9%) and human health and social work activities (6.6%). Meanwhile, the manufacturing capacity utilization rate rounded in at 72.%, continuing the downward trend from last month (73.1%). Mining and Manufacturing Production (3MA) and Service Production Index (3MA) 6 (Year-onYear, % Change, 3MA) Mining and Manufacturing Production Index (3MA) Service Production Index (3MA) Manufacturing shipments recorded a 2.9% growth, up from last month (.2%) led by export shipments taking an upward swing while the inventory-to-shipments ratio inched up from last month. Domestic shipments ascended 2.7% led by motor vehicles (15.3%) while export shipments swung to a 3.% increase from last month s decrease (-.7%) led by electronic parts (27.2%). The manufacturing inventory-to-shipments ratio stood at 12.7%, marginally up from last month (119.2%) on an increase in the motor vehicles inventory (9.4%) despite improved shipments. 2

25 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 Shipment Index (3MA) and Inventory-Shipment Ratio 6 (Year-on-Year % Change, 3MA) (%) Manufacturing Shipment Index (left, 3MA) Manufacturing Inventory-Shipment Ratio (right) The cyclical component of the coincident composite index registered 1.8, slightly up from last month (1.7), as the indices for services production and domestic shipments ascended. Meanwhile, the cyclical component of the leading composite index registered 11.8, the same as last month, as the job-opening-to-job-seeker ratio and the consumer expectations index retreated but the construction orders received and KOSPI advanced. Cyclical Component of Composite Economic Indices 12. (Base=1) Cyclical Component of Coincident Index Cyclical Component of Leading Index 21

26 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 Consumption: Growth in retail sales shrank and consumer sentiment index continued last month s decrease, indicating a somewhat subdued improvement in consumption. August's retail sales index recorded a decreased growth of.8% from last month (3.5%). By item, non- and semi-durable goods retreated 1.1% and 1.7%, respectively, while durable goods advanced 5.6% from last month (11.8%) influenced by the slump in the sales of communication devices and computers (-4.2%). On a seasonally adjusted MoM basis, the index swung to a 1.% decrease from last month s increase (.1%). Services production recorded a slight decrease of 2.1% from last month (2.2%), exhibiting gradually moderating growth. Wholesale and retail trade closely related to private consumption declined slightly by.5% from last month (1.4%) while accommodation and food services remained the same at 3.9%. September s composite consumer sentiment index (CCSI) marked 17.7, down by 2.2p from last month but still above the baseline, owing to increasing negative sentiments over current and prospective domestic economic conditions. Current (94 94) and prospective living standards (12 12) stayed unchanged whereas current (93 87) and prospective domestic economic conditions (14 96) plunged sharply from last month. Retail Sales Index and Composite Consumer Sentiment Index 1 (Year-on-Year % Change) (Base=1) Retail Sales Index (left) Composite Consumer Sentiment Index (right) 22

27 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 Facilities Investment: Growth in the equipment investment index slipped marginally but the improvement trend was maintained driven by semiconductors. August s equipment investment index recorded a decrease of 13.2% from last month (25.1%) influenced by a reduced growth in machinery. Equipment investment index (YoY, %): (Jun. 17) 18.6 (Jul.) 25.1 (Aug.) 13.2 Machinery (YoY, %): (Jun. 17) 4.8 (Jul.) 32.6 (Aug.) 15.3 Transport equipment (YoY, %): (Jun. 17) (Jul.) 7.8 (Aug.) 7.3 Meanwhile, September s imports (amount basis) of machinery rose to 33.9%, similar to July, influenced by the increased imports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment, implying that the machinery-driven growth in facilities investment will be sustained. Imports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment (YoY, %): (Jul. 17) (Aug.) 51.2 (Sep.) Imports of machinery (YoY, %): (Jul. 17) 31.2 (Aug.) 1.9 (Sep.) 33.9 Equipment Investment Index (3MA) and Indexes Related to Semiconductor Facility Investment (3MA) 4 (Year-on-Year % Change, 3MA) Equip. Investment Index(left, 3MA) Special Machinery Order Received(right, 3MA) Semicon. Manufac. Equip.(right, 3MA)

28 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 Construction Investment: Leading indicators such as construction orders received remained sluggish amid a moderating growth in the value of construction completed, implying that growth in construction investment will slow to some degree. August s value of construction completed (constant) grew 8.1% from last month (13.2%) influenced by the slowing growth in the building construction sector and deepening slump in the civil engineering sector. By sector, civil engineering posted a loss of 17.% in growth, larger than last month s (-9.1%) while building construction recorded a 18.2% growth, slightly down from last month (22.3%). Construction orders received (current) exhibited a continued slump mainly in civil engineering while floor area permitted and started continued to decrease. Construction orders received recorded a growth of 3.4% as the building construction sector advanced merely.9% and the civil engineering sector retreated 14.9% continuing last month s decrease (-31.3%). Floor area permitted shrank 1.% due to decreases in both residential and commercial uses while floor area started diminished 1.1% as residential use increased slightly but other uses continued to decrease. Value of Construction Completed (3MA) and Construction Ordered Received (3MA) (Year-on-Year % Change, 3MA) Value of Construction Completed (left, 3MA) Construction Orders Received (right, 3MA) 24

29 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 Exports: With improvements in export conditions thanks to a strong global economy, exports gained an exceptionally high growth mainly due to increased workdays. September s exports (amount) recorded a sharply increased 35.% growth from last month (17.3%). Most items exhibited favorable gains including 7.% in semiconductors, 17.2% in steel and 57.6% in motor vehicles, and exports shot up to all regions including the US (28.9%), China (23.4%) and the EU (23.%). Average daily exports removing the impact of the increased workdays (+3) climbed 19.4%, an inch up from last month (17.3%). * Average daily exports (YoY, %): (Jul. 17) 19.5 (Aug.) 17.3 (Sep.) 19.4 * However, when the effect of advanced customs clearance is taken into account, the estimated growth in average daily exports is likely be lower than 19.4%. Imports continued on a high growth trajectory of 21.7%, led by key energy resources and capital goods. By stage-of-processing, primary products, mostly energy resources, advanced 27.% while capital goods recorded a high growth of 4.9%, continuing last month s upward trend (25.7%) influenced by the surging growth in semiconductor manufacturing equipment. Trade balance ran a sharply increased surplus of $13.75 billion from last year ($6.86 billion). Exports Average Exports per Day 4 (Year-on-Year % Change) 4 (Year-on-Year % Change) Exports Average Exports per Day 25

30 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 August s Balance of Payments The current account recorded an increased surplus of $6.6 billion from last year ($5.3 billion), led by the goods account. The goods account recorded an increased surplus of $9.31 billion from last year ($6.94 billion) as exports (15.8%) outgrew imports (12.1%). The services account recorded a reduced deficit (-$2.33 billion) from last year (-$1.5 billion), influenced by the transport account swinging to a deficit (-$.3 billion -$.27 billion) and the travel account posting an increased deficit (-$1.28 billion -$1.41 billion) due to the sharp drop (-74.1%) in Chinese tourists in Korea. The primary income account recorded a reversal to a deficit (-$.8 billion) from last year s surplus ($.53 billion) due to decreased dividend payments while the secondary income account recorded a reduced deficit of $.84 billion from last year (-$.94 billion). Seasonally Adjusted Current Account (3MA) and Terms of Trade (3MA) 15 (Hundred Million US Dollars, 3MA) (Year-on-Year % Change, 3MA) S.A. Current Account (left, 3MA) Terms of Trade (right, 3MA) The financial account recorded a $9.13 billion increase in net assets, down from last month ($9.77 billion). Direct investment marked $1.58 billion, up from last month ($.4 billion) on a fast increase in outbound investments. Portfolio investment marked $11.46 billion, sharply up from last month ($3.21 billion) on decreased inbound investments. Other investments marked -$4.19 billion, a reversal from last month ($6.26 billion) 26

31 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 Labor Market: Employment growth in construction plunged, pointing to a delayed improvement in overall employment. August s employment growth posted 313, (1.2%), slightly down from last month (212,,.8%). By industry, manufacturing (5, 25,) showed a slight drop in growth, services (133, 14,) exhibited a low growth, similar to last month, due to the continuing base effect, and construction (11, 34,) posted a sharply reduced growth due to more rainy days. By occupational status, regular workers (388, 46,) ascended and temporary and daily workers (-119, -24,) dropped while the self-employed (5, -3,) took a downward swing, indicating continued improvement in the quality of employment conditions. On a seasonally adjusted MoM basis, the labor force participation rate edged up by.2%p to 63.% and the employment rate remained at 6.6%. The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate recorded 3.8%, up by.2%p from last month. The seasonally adjusted employment rate of those aged recorded 66.5%, down by.1%p from last month. Changes in the Number of Employed Persons by sectors 6 (Year-on-Year Change, Thousand Persons) All sectors Serveice sector Manufacturing sector Construction sector 27

32 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 CPI: September s headline CPI inflation stood at 2.1%, lower than last month (2.6%) influenced by falling prices of agricultural, livestock and fishery products. Commodity prices rose 2.4%, down from last month (3.6%). Prices of agricultural, livestock and fishery products rose 4.8%, lower than last month (12.2%) on reduced growth in prices of agricultural products (16.2% 5.2%) such as vegetables. Industrial goods prices rose 1.2%, higher than last month (1.%) as prices of petroleum products accelerated (3.6% 6.1%). Utility fees (water, electricity and gas) stayed the same as last month due to the base effect from the temporary cut in electricity prices in 3Q of last year. Services prices rose 1.8%, the same as last month. Core inflation, excluding agricultural and petroleum products, rose 1.6%, lower than last month (1.8%). Meanwhile, prices of apartment purchases rose.1%, lower than last month (.2%) while those of jeonse rose.1%, the same as last month. CPI Change and Contribution by Sector 4 3 Agricultural Service CPI (Year-on-Year % Change, %p) Manufacturing Electricity, water, and gas Core CPI Note: The sum of sector-by-sector contributions is rounded off to the nearest integer, which may be inconsistent with the growth rate of the total index. 28

33 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 Financial Market: Interest rates and CDS premium advanced while the FX rate and stock prices remained relatively stable. In September, interest rates reached an annual record high as the US FRB initiated a cut in its holdings and interest rates in major countries simultaneously increased. Interest rate of government bonds (3-year, as of end-month, %p): (Sep. 16) 1.25 (May 17) 1.66 (Jun.) 1.7 (Jul.) 1.72 (Aug.) 1.75 (Sep.) 1.89 CDS premium advanced fast on emerging geopolitical risks such as North Korea s sixth nuclear test. CDS premium (5-year, as of end-month, bp): (Sep. 16) 4 (May. 17) 56 (Jun.) 58 (Jul.) 58 (Aug.) 6 (Sep.) 74 Despite geopolitical risks, the dollar/won exchange rate and KOSPI recorded 1,145.4 won 2,394.5, respectively, similar to last month. Meanwhile, August posted an increase of 8.8 trillion won in household loans, an inch drop from last month (9.5 trillion won) while non-housing loans surged by 3.4 trillion won led by credit loans from internet-only banks. Bank s non-housing loans (change, trillion won): (Aug. 14). (Aug. 15) 1.7 (Aug. 16) 2.5 (Jun. 17) 1.9 (Jul. 17) 1.9 (Aug. 17) year Treasury Bond and CDS Premium 2. (%) (bp) year Treasury Bond (left) 5-year CDS (right) 29

34 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 World Economy: Expectations are growing of a global recovery driven by improved real indicators although the US is showing lingering risks over monetary tightening and political uncertainties. Industrial production and trade volume continues to expand in growth while the sentiment index is on the rise in tandem with economic-related leading indicators, implying that the overall conditions in the global economy remain favorable. 6 World Industrial Production and Trade (Year-on-Year % Change, 3MA) World PMI and OECD+NME Leading Indicator (Base=5) (Base=1) World Industrial Production World Trade World PMI (left) OECD+NME Leading Indicator (right) Advanced economies showed high expectations of recovery thanks to improved domestic demand and manufacturing sentiment while emerging markets exhibited continued growth in exports and consumption influenced by rising demand at home and overseas. 65 Manufacturing Indices in the US and Eurozone (Base=5) 4 Exports in China, Russia, and Brazil (Year-on-Year % Change, 3MA) US ISM Eurozone PMI China Russia Brazil 3

35 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 The US economy faces slightly subdued indicators including production and a downward turn in employment but is sustaining moderate growth mainly in private consumption. A temporary setback is expected in economic activities due to the fallout from hurricanes Harvey and Irma, but the normalization of monetary policy will continue as the overall economy is projected to stay positive. 4 US Industrial Production and Retail Sales (Year-on-Year % Change) 8 4 US Employment and Core PCE Price (MoM Change, 1 Thousand Persons) (YoY % Change) Industrial Production (left) Retail Sales (right) Employed Persons (left) Core PCE (right) The Eurozone exhibited favorable performances in key real indicators and an increase in sentiment indicators, pointing to a gradual pickup in recovery. July posted a decrease in retail sales growth and continued low inflation (1.5% in Aug.) but continued fast growth in economic indicators and exports from last month. 5 Industrial Production and Retail Sales in Eurozone (Year-on-Year % Change) Exports and Sentiment Indicator in Eurozone (Year-on-Year % Change, 3MA) (Base=1) Industrial Production Retail Sales Exports (left) Sentiment Indicator (right) 31

36 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 Japan showed continued improvements in economic indicators and higher-than-expected growth in exports, implying that a modest recovery is being maintained. August posted continued high growth rates in production (5.4%) and capital goods shipments (9.7%) and a sharp rise in exports (18.1%) driven by exports to the US and Asian emerging markets. 9 Japan's Industrial Production and Retail Sales (Year-on-Year % Change) 3 Japan's Exports and Imports (Year-on-Year % Change) Industrial Production Retail Sales Exports Imports China exhibited continued high growth in consumption and continued improvement in leading indicators but sluggish investment was observed, prompting the projection of a gradual decrease in growth. August posted a 1.1% increase in retail sales but reduced growth in fixed-asset investment (7.8%) due to sluggish manufacturing investment. 14 China's Industrial Production and Retail Sales (Year-on-Year % Change) China's Fixed Asset Investment and Manufacturing PMI (Year-on-Year % Change) (Base=5) Industrial Production Retail Sales Fixed Asset Investment (left) Manufacturing PMI (right) 32

37 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 Oil prices rose to the $55 level per barrel as supply decreased on a reduction in output, and the demand is projected to be higher than expected due to the global economic recovery. However, most forecasting institutions projected that uncertainties will run high within the market for crude oil and the annual average price for 217 will stand at around $5 per barrel. Major commodity price indices such as the CRB continued to trend up as prices of a few non-ferrous metals dropped but oil and grain prices rose sharply. Oil Price and CRB Index Prices of Key Raw Materials ($/barrel) 7 (1967=1) 21 1 (Month-on-Month % Change) Dubai (left) CRB (right) 15-1 Nickel Copper Tin Aluminum Corn Zinc Lead Wheat Dubai Note: As of Oct. 9, compared to end-aug. Meanwhile, major advanced economies exhibited higher-than-expected recoveries and a few resource exporting countries bottomed out, implying that the global economy will maintain a recovery trend. The IMF projected that the global economy will grow at 3.6% in 217 and 3.7% in 218, reflecting expansionary government spending, accommodative monetary policy and recent increases in world trade volume and production. Meanwhile, certain risks persist, such as US policy uncertainties and concerns over a spread of trade protectionism. 217~18 World Economic Outlook (IMF) (%) World US Eurozone Japan China India Brazil Russia Korea Source: IMF, World Economic Outlook, October

38 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 Global Financial Markets: Due to concerns over a US rate hike, the market interest rate and the dollar s value increased but indicators reflecting investment sentiment in the financial market remained stable overall. Due to the Federal Reserve s announcement of a cut in holdings and the increasing likelihood of an additional rate hike before year-end, the long-term interest rates in advanced economies ascended and the dollar turned strong. 3. Long-Term Interest Rates in the US, Germany, and Japan (%) 6 Major Currency Revaluation Rates against USD (%) Sep. 8, 217 Oct. 9, US Germany Japan -9 Turkey South Africa Mexico India Japan Indonesia Eurozone China Brazil Russia Note: Compared to end-aug. However, stock prices in major countries continued to advance influenced by the modest global growth while VIX and emerging market bond spread remained low. 9 Changes in Stock Prices (%) VIX and Emerging Market Bond Index Mexico Taiwan India China Indonesia US Russia Japan Eurozone Brazil VIX (left) EMBI (right) Note: As of Oct. 9 compared to end-aug. 34

39 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 Real Estate Market Expert Survey (3Q 217) * It should be noted that the 3Q survey was conducted from Sep. 15 to after the government released Measures to Stabilize the Housing Market by Protecting Actual Demand and Curbing Speculative Demand (Aug. 2) and follow-up actions (Sep. 5). Experts are rating the performance in the current real estate market (3Q 217) as moderate but are slightly more negative of the conditions in next year s 3Q than they were in last quarter s survey. Respondents answered that the market maintained moderate conditions in 3Q but the proportion of negative answers increased than a quarter ago. With regards to the question comparing the current condition of the real estate market to the average level, moderate was chosen the most (52%) as in 2Q (44%), while poor and very poor rose to 26% from 14%. For the outlook of the real estate market in 3Q 218, most experts projected that conditions will remain the same or deteriorate. The proportion of positive answers tumbled than a quarter ago. In the 3Q survey, 5% projected similar, 44% poor and 6% good with a 2%p decrease in the proportion of good from the 2Q survey. Current Real Estate Market Evaluation 7 (%) 7 Real Estate Market Outlook: A Year Later (%) Very Poor Poor Moderate Good Very Good Very Poor Poor Moderate Good Very Good '17.Q1 '17.Q2 '17.Q3 '18.Q1 '18.Q2 '18.Q3 * The real estate market expert survey is conducted on a quarterly basis on about 1 academic leaders, researchers and experts from financial institutions and construction companies. 35

40 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 With regards to the stance of real estate policy, most experts supported maintaining or further reinforcing current regulations, which were recently strengthened. As for the LTV and DTI, current received the most votes at 61% and 69%, respectively, with more votes on higher than lower. As for selective demand regulations such as the designation of speculation zones, the majority chose current (79%). Additionally, with regards to additional designation in the event of soaring sales prices in other zones, necessary (72%) received larger support than unnecessary (28%). As for all real estate taxes, such as holding and transaction taxes, current received the most support with larger support for higher taxes, except acquisition and registration taxes Q Survey Results by Category (%) Current real estate market evaluation Very low Low Reasonable High Very high Sales price Jeonse price Outlook of the real estate market (3Q 218) Below -5% -5 ~ -2.5% -2.5 ~ -% No change Below 2.5% 2.5~5% Above 5% Sales price Jeonse price Real estate policy stance Financial regulations LTV Lower (12%) Current (61%) Higher (27%) DTI Lower (1%) Current (69%) Higher (21%) Demandrelated regulations Designation of speculation and overheated speculation zones Fewer (21%) Current (79%) Additional designation Unnecessary (28%) Necessary (72%) Real estate taxes Holding tax Lower ( 9%) Current (59%) Higher (32%) Transfer tax Lower (22%) Current (47%) Higher (31%) Acquisition & registration taxes Lower (32%) Current (58%) Higher (1%) Gross real estate tax Lower (14%) Current (6%) Higher (26%) Income Tax Extension of grace period (23%) Current (45%) Imposition (32%) 36

41 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 경제동향주요지표 Major Indicators of the Korean Economy

42 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 국내총생산및국내총소득 (21 년불변가격 ) 민간소비및고정투자(21 년불변가격) GDP and GDI Private Consumption and Fixed Investment (at 21 Constant Prices) (at 21 Constant Prices) 8 ( 전년동기대비,% / Year-on-Year % Change) 2 ( 전년동기대비,% / Year-on-Year % Change) Ⅲ Ⅳ Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ Ⅰ Ⅱ 1 Ⅲ Ⅳ Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ Ⅰ Ⅱ 민간소비 (Private Consumption) 설비투자 (Facilities Investment) 국내총생산 (GDP) 국내총소득 (GDI) 건설투자 (Construction Investment) 상품및서비스수출(21 년불변가격) 상품및서비스수입(21 년불변가격) Exports of Goods and Services Imports of Goods and Services (at 21 Constant Prices) (at 21 Constant Prices) 15 ( 전년동기대비,% / Year-on-Year % Change) 15 ( 전년동기대비,% / Year-on-Year % Change) Ⅲ Ⅳ Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ Ⅰ Ⅱ -5 Ⅲ Ⅳ Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ Ⅰ Ⅱ 상품수출 (Exports of Goods) 서비스수출 (Exports of Services) 상품수입 (Imports of Goods) 서비스수입 (Imports of Services) 38

43 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 1. 국내총생산(21 년불변가격) Gross Domestic Product (at 21 Constant Prices) GDP 민간소비 Private Consumption 설비투자 Facilities Investment 국내총생산 건설투자 Construction Investment 총수출 Total Export 총수입 Total Import ( 조원, Trillion Won) 국내총소득 Gross Domestic Income 213 1, , , , , , p 1, , Ⅲ Ⅳ Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ Ⅰ p Ⅱ p Ⅲ p Ⅳ p Ⅰ p Ⅱ p 전년동기대비증가율 (%) Percentage Change from the Same Period of the Previous Year p Ⅲ 3.2(.9) 1.9( 1.2) 2.3( 3.5) 7.5(-1.) 2.5(-.1).9(.) 4.2(.9) Ⅳ 3.5(.9) 2.2(.7) 11.7( 3.7) 3.5(-2.4) 3.1(.9) 5.( 2.2) 4.3(.7) 214 Ⅰ 3.8( 1.) 2.8(.5) 7.5(-.8) 4.5( 3.4) 3.5(.9) 2.7(-1.2) 4.7( 1.2) Ⅱ 3.5(.6) 1.7(-.5) 8.( 1.6).3(.4) 2.8(.8) 2.( 1.) 3.7(.7) Ⅲ 3.4(.7) 1.4(.8) 4.3(.1) 2.3(-.1) 1.3(-1.2) 1.7(-.3) 3.(.2) Ⅳ 2.7(.4) 1.(.3) 4.2( 3.2) -1.7(-4.9).7(.2) -.4(.) 3.7( 1.6) 215 Ⅰ 2.6(.8) 1.5(.9) 5.4(.3) 4.( 9.) -.5(-.3).9(.1) 6.3( 3.6) Ⅱ 2.4(.4) 1.7(-.3) 4.3(.8) 4.6( 1.4) -1.4(-.2).4(.7) 6.5(.9) Ⅲ 3.( 1.3) 2.2( 1.3) 6.( 1.9) 7.6( 2.1) -.4(.1) 2.( 1.2) 7.2(.9) Ⅳ 3.2(.7) 3.4( 1.5) 3.1(.) 9.6(-2.2) 1.7( 2.1) 5.( 2.9) 6.3(.8) 216 Ⅰ p 2.9(.5) 2.3(-.1) -4.6(-7.) 9.( 7.6) 1.3(-.6) 3.4(-1.5) 5.7( 3.) Ⅱ p 3.4(.9) 3.5(.8) -2.9( 2.6) 1.6( 3.1) 2.6( 1.) 4.8( 2.2) 4.7(-.1) Ⅲ p 2.6(.5) 2.7(.6) -3.9(.9) 11.2( 2.2) 3.4( 1.) 6.5( 2.6) 3.3(-.5) Ⅳ p 2.4(.5) 1.5(.2) 2.( 5.9) 11.6(-1.2) 1.2(-.1) 3.3(-.1) 3.1(.8) 217 Ⅰ p 2.9( 1.1) 2.(.4) 14.4( 4.4) 11.3( 6.8) 3.9( 2.1) 9.9( 4.8) 2.6( 2.6) Ⅱ p 2.7(.6) 2.3( 1.) 17.3( 5.2) 8.(.3).(-2.9) 6.4(-1.) 2.9(.) 주 : 1) p 는잠정치. 2) ( ) 는계절조정전기대비증가율. 자료 : 한국은행. Note: 1) p is preliminary. 2) Figures in parentheses indicate percentage changes from the previous period (S.A.). Source: Bank of Korea. 39

44 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 생산지수 Production Indices 출하지수및재고지수 Shipment and Inventory Indices 8 ( 전년동기대비, % / Year-on-Year % Change) 9 ( 전년동기대비, % / Year-on-Year % Change) 전산업생산지수 (All Industry Prod. Index) 광공업생산지수 (Mining and Manufac. Prod. Index) 서비스업생산지수 (Service Prod. Index) -9 출하지수 (Shipment Index) 재고지수 (Inventory Index) 경기종합지수순환변동치한국은행 BSI 제조업실적및전망(S.A.) Cyclical Component of Economic Indices BOK Business Survey Index (Seasonally Adjusted) 12 ( 기준 =1 / Base=1) 9 ( 기준 =1 / Base=1) 동행지수순환변동치 (Composite Coincident Index) 선행지수순환변동치 (Composite Leading Index) BSI 제조업실적 (BSI Manufac. Tendency) BSI 제조업전망 (BSI Manufac. Future Tendency) 4

45 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 2. 경기 Economic Activity 전산업 2) All Industry Production 생산지수 Production Indices 광공업 3) Mining and Manufacturing Production 서비스업 Service Production 생산자제품 Producer's Product 출하 Shipment 재고 Inventory 경기종합지수순환변동치 1) Cyclical Component of Economic Indices 동행지수 Composite Coincident Index 선행지수 Composite Leading Index ( 전년동기대비, % / Year-on-Year % Change) 한국은행 BSI 1) ( 제조업, 계절조정) BOK BSI (Manufacturing, S.A.) 실적 Tendency 전망 Future Tendency 제조업평균가동률 Capacity Utilization Rate (%) Ⅲ 2.5 ( 1.8).4 ( 1.8) 2.9 ( 1.2) 1.3 ( 2.1) 7.1 ( 3.2) Ⅳ 2.7 (.3).4 (-1.) 3.3 ( 1.2).4 (-.7) 3.3 (-6.) Ⅰ 2.1 (.2) -.3 (-.6) 2.8 (.2) -.8 (-1.6) 3.1 ( 3.6) Ⅱ 3.2 ( 1.3).7 ( 1.4) 3.5 ( 1.1) 1.2 ( 2.1) -2. (-2.3) Ⅲ 3. (.9).5 (.1) 3.6 ( 1.) -.1 (-.3) -7.8 (-3.2) Ⅳ 3.5 (.4) 2.8 (.6) 2.1 (-.3) 2.4 ( 1.2) -5.8 (-3.1) Ⅰ 3.9 ( 1.3) 3.7 ( 1.6) 2.6 (.9) 3.4 (.5) -5.6 ( 2.7) Ⅱ p 2.7 (-.3).5 (-2.3) 2.3 (.6). (-2.) -1.7 ( 1.9) Ⅲ (.4) -.5 (-1.1) 2.5 (-.1).7 ( 1.7) 3.1 (-.1) (-.5) -2.7 (-.6) 2. (.5) -1.7 (-1.1) -.8 (-2.1) ( 1.8) 4.4 ( 3.5) 3.6 (.3) 3.8 ( 2.4).4 (.1) (.1).9 (-1.1) 4.9 (.4) 1.6 (-.3) -2. (-.4) (.5) 1.5 ( 1.1) 3.2 (.4).7 (.1) -4.9 (-2.8) (-.4) 2.2 (-2.3) 4.4 (.3) 1.7 (-1.6) -5.3 (.4) (.1) -2. (.7) 2.9 (-.3) -2.6 (.4) -7.8 (-.8) (-.6) -1.2 (-.9) 2. (-.5) -1.9 (-.6) -6.2 (.) ( 1.4) 5.4 ( 3.1) 2.6 (.3) 4.7 ( 2.8) -6.4 (-1.1) (.3) 4.3 (-.4) 1.9 (.5) 4.7 (.5) -5.8 (-2.) (.5) 1.3 ( 2.8) 2.6 (.2) 1.4 (.5) -5.8 ( 2.) (-.3) 6.7 (-3.3) 2.5 (.3) 7.3 (-2.5) -6. (.4) ( 1.3) 3.3 ( 1.3) 2.8 (.3) 1.8 ( 1.2) -5.6 (.3) (-1.) 1.9 (-2.2) 2.4 (.1).5 (-2.3) -.8 ( 2.9) (-.1).3 (.3) 2.3 (-.1) -.6 (-.3) 1.3 ( 2.6) p 1.7 (.) -.4 (-.4) 2.1 (.6).2 ( 2.) -1.7 (-3.5) p 2. ( 1.) -.2 ( 1.7) 2.2 (.6).7 (.7) 1.8 ( 1.) p 2.6 (.) 2.7 (.4) 2.1 (.1) 3.(.6) 3.5( 2.) 주 : 1) 기준치=1. 2) 214~15 년연간지수는농림어업포함. 3) 광업, 제조업, 전기 가스업을포함. 4) p 는잠정치( 한국은행 BSI 제외). 5) ( ) 는계절조정전기대비증가율. 자료 : 통계청; 한국은행. Note: 1) Base=1. 2) Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries sectors is included for annual index in 214~15. 3) Mining & Manufacturing, Electricity & Gas Industry. 4) p is preliminary (BOK BSI are excluded). 5) Figures in parentheses indicate percentage changes from the previous period (S.A.). Source: Statistics Korea; Bank of Korea. 41

46 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 민간소비( 소비재) 와소매판매액지수유형별소매판매액지수 Private Consumption (Consumer Goods) and Retail Retail Sales Index by Group of Goods Sales Index 1 ( 전년동기대비, % / Year-on-Year % Change) 25 ( 전년동기대비, % / Year-on-Year % Change) 민간소비 ( 소비재 ) (Private Comsumption (Consumer Goods)) 소매판매액지수 (Retail Sales Index) 내구재 (Durable goods) 준내구재 (Semi-durable goods) 비내구재 (Non-durable goods) 소비재출하지수및소비재수입액 Consumer Goods Shipment Index and Consumer Goods Import 소비자동향조사 Consumer Survey 2 ( 전년동기대비, % / Year-on-Year % Change) 112 ( 기준 =1 / Base=1) 소비재출하 (Consumer Goods Shipment Index) 소비재수입 (Consumer Goods Import) 92 9 소비자심리지수 (Composite Consumer Sentiment Index) 소비지출전망 (Prospective Household Spending) 42

47 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 3. 소비 Consumption Retail Sales Index 소매판매액지수 유형별지수 by Group of Goods 비내구재준내구재 Non-durable Semidurable 내구재 Durable 승용차 Automobile 소비재출하 Consumer Goods Shipment Index 소비재수입 1) Consumer Goods Import ( 전년동기대비, % / Year-on-Year % Change) 소비자심리지수 Composite Consumer Sentiment Index (CCSI) 소비자동향조사 2) Consumer Survey 현재경기판단 Current Domestic Economic Conditions 향후경기전망 Prospective Domestic Economic Conditions 소비지출전망 Prospective Household Spending Ⅲ 2. ( 1.5) Ⅳ 2.4 (.1) Ⅰ 2.4 ( 1.4) Ⅱ 3.9 (.7) Ⅲ 3.6 ( 1.1) Ⅳ 6.3 ( 2.9) Ⅰ 5. (-.2) Ⅱ 5.9 ( 2.) Ⅲ 3.5 (-1.2) Ⅳ 2.5 ( 2.1) Ⅰ 1.9 (-.5) Ⅱ 1.7 ( 1.2) Ⅲ p ( 1.6) (-3.3) ( 4.2) (-.3) (-.4) (-2.1) ( 3.2) (-.3) (.7) (-1.1) ( 1.3) p 3.5 (.1) p.8 (-1.) p 주 : 1) 소비재수입액을전월의소비재수입물가지수로실질화. 2) 기준=1. 3) p 는잠정치( 단, 소비자동향조사는제외). 4) ( ) 는계절조정전기대비증가율. 자료 : 한국은행; 통계청; 한국무역협회. Note: 1) Nominal consumer goods import deflated by import price index (consumer goods) of the previous month. 2) Base=1. 3) p is preliminary (Consumer survey is excluded). 4) Figures in parentheses indicate percentage changes from the previous period (S.A.). Source: Bank of Korea; Statistics Korea; Korea International Trade Association. 43

48 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 형태별설비투자지수 Equipment Investment Index by Type 설비투자지수와기계류내수출하지수 Equipment Investment Index and Domestic Machinery Shipment Index 6 ( 전년동기대비, % / Year-on-Year % Change) 4 ( 전년동기대비, % / Year-on-Year % Change) 기계류 (Machinery) 운송장비 (Transport Equipment) 설비투자지수 (Equipment Investment Index) 기계류내수출하지수 (Domestic Machinery Shipment Index) 자본재수입액과기계류수입액 Import of Capital Goods and Machinery Import 국내기계수주 Domestic Machinery Orders Received 6 ( 전년동기대비, % / Year-on-Year % Change) 5 ( 전년동기대비, % / Year-on-Year % Change) 자본재수입액 (Import of Capital Goods) 기계류수입액 (Machinery Import) 총수주액 (Total) 민간수주액 (Private) 44