12월 속표지_담당자.hwp

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1 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_ 총괄국내총생산경기소비설비투자건설투자대외거래노동시장물가금융시장재정세계경제 김성태 정규철황세진정대희구희일오지윤이유진조덕상신동한정규철황세진권규호한일수김지운정유경천소라원선재김지섭노경아김성태이우열이상규이우열황세진 본자료는 KDI 홈페이지를통해서도보실수있습니다.

2 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 Contents 주요경제지표 Major Economic Indicators 요약및평가 Summary and Assessment 경제동향주요지표 Major Indicators of the Korean Economy 1. 국내총생산(21 년불변가격) 35 Gross Domestic Product (at 21 Constant Prices) 2. 경기 37 Economic Activity 3. 소비 39 Consumption 4. 설비투자 41 Equipment Investment 5. 건설투자 43 Construction Investment 6-1. 수출, 수입및교역조건 45 Exports, Imports and Terms of Trade 6-2. 경상수지및금융계정 47 Current Account and Financial Account 7. 고용및임금 49 Employment and Wage 8. 물가 51 Price Indices 9-1. 금융시장 (I) 53 Financial Market (I) 9-2. 금융시장 (II) 55 Financial Market (II) 1-1. 세계경제동향 (I) 57 Major Indicators of the World Economy (I) 1-2. 세계경제동향 (II) 59 Major Indicators of the World Economy (II)

3 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 주요경제지표 Major Economic Indicators ( 전년동기대비증가율, % / Year-on-Year % Change) Ⅵ Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ 전산업생산 All Industry Production 광공업생산 Industrial Production 서비스업생산 Service Production 소매판매액 Retail Sales Index 설비투자지수 Equipment Investment Index 건설기성액 ( 불변 ) Value of Construction Completed (Constant Price) 수출 ( 통관 ) Exports (f.o.b.) 수입 ( 통관 ) Imports (c.i.f.) 무역수지 ( 십억달러 ) Balance of Trade (Billion US Dollars) 실업률 Unemployment Rate 취업자수 Number of Employed 소비자물가 Consumer Price 국고채 3-year Treasury Bonds 종합주가지수 KOSPI 원/ 달러환율 Won/Dollar Exchange Rate OECD 경기선행지수 OECD Composite Leading Indicator 유가 ( 두바이, 달러 / 배럴 ) Oil Prices (Dubai, US$/Barrel) ,916 1,961 1,961 1,996 1,97 2,44 2,44 2,8 1,983 1,99.2 1,172. 1,172. 1, , ,96.3 1,96.3 1, , 주: 국고채수익률 종합주가지수 원/ 달러환율은기말기준, 유가( 두바이) 는기간평균기준임.

4 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 요약및평가 최근우리경제는건설투자가양호한모습을나타내고있으나, 여타부문이 부진하면서경기가점차둔화되고있는것으로판단됨. 민간소비증가세가약화되는가운데, 투자는건설투자가양호한흐름을나타 내고있으나, 설비투자는감소세를지속 소비관련서비스업이여전히부진한가운데, 소매판매의증가세가둔화되고 소비자심리지수도큰폭으로하락하는등민간소비회복세가약화되고있음. 건설투자가건축부문을중심으로비교적큰폭으로증가하였으나, 운송장비의부진이지속되면서감소함. 설비투자는 수출증가세가낮은수준에정체된가운데, 제조업생산과취업자수는비교적 큰폭으로감소하며경기부진을시사하고있음. 11 월중수출은조업일수가확대되면서증가로전환되었으나, 여전히부진한것으로판단됨. 물량기준으로는 제조업생산이감소하고평균가동률도매우낮은수준(7.3%) 으로하락한가운데, 제조업취업자수는감소폭이점차확대되고있음. 아울러동행지수순환변동치도전월에이어하락하면서경기가둔화되고있음을시사 별도의언급이없을경우모든증가율은전년동월대비기준임. 1

5 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 경기 : 광공업생산및출하가부진을지속하는가운데서비스업생산증가세도정체되는 등경기전반이점차둔화되고있음. 1월중전산업생산은전월(1.3%) 보다높은전년동월대비 2.% 의증가율을기록 하였으나, 경기흐름과연관성이낮은건설업이개선된데주로기인 서비스업생산은금융및보험업(7.7%) 등에서높은증가세를유지하였으나, 운수업 (-2.9%) 등에서감소하면서전월(2.6%) 에이어비교적낮은 2.5% 의증가율을기록 광공업생산은반도체 (2.5% 11.7%) 는개선되었으나, 통신방송장비 (-21.5% -41.7%) 가 큰폭으로감소하면서전월(-1.7%) 에이어부진( 1.6%) 을지속 제조업평균가동률도전월(71.6%) 보다낮은 7.3% 를기록하며제조업생산활동이미약한 상황임을시사 한편, 건설업생산은기저효과가사라지면서전월(9.5%) 보다확대된 17.3% 증가 광공업생산지수 (3MA) 및서비스업생산지수 (3MA) 6 ( 전년동기대비, %, 3 개월이동평균 ) 광공업생산지수 (3MA) 서비스업생산지수 (3MA) 제조업출하가감소세를지속하는가운데, 제조업재고율은소폭상승 제조업출하(-2.3%) 는조업일수감소(.5 일) 등의영향이이어지며내수출하(-1.7%) 와 수출출하(-3.2%) 가모두감소세를지속 제조업재고율( 재고/ 출하비율) 은반도체재고가증가로전환되면서전월(117.7%) 보다 높은 119.8% 를기록 2

6 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 제조업출하지수(3MA) 와재고율 3 ( 전년동기대비, %, 3 개월이동평균 ) (%) 제조업출하지수 ( 좌, 3MA) 제조업재고율 ( 우 ) 한편, 동행지수순환변동치는광공업생산의부진이지속되면서전월(1.9) 보다낮은 1.6 을기록하며경기가점차둔화되고있음을시사 선행지수순환변동치는기계류내수출하지수와구인구직비율등의증가로전월(1.9) 보다 소폭상승한 11.을기록 동행지수순환변동치와선행지수순환변동치 11.5 ( 기준 =1) 동행지수순환변동치 선행지수순환변동치 3

7 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 소비 : 소매판매증가세가둔화되는가운데대내외불확실성의확대로소비자심리지수도 큰폭으로하락하는등민간소비의회복세는약화되고있음. 1 월중소매판매액은비내구재를중심으로소폭증가하였으나, 전년동월대비 2.3% 의낮은증가율을기록하며민간소비회복세가약화되고있음을시사 비내구재(3.9%) 는증가폭이확대되었으나, 내구재(.6%) 가승용차판매감소(-3.1%) 등 으로낮은증가율을기록한가운데, 준내구재(1.1%) 도증가폭이축소 계절조정전기대비로는 5.2% 증가하며비교적크게확대되었는데, 이는전월의증가율 ( 4.5%) 이크게하락한데따른기저효과에주로기인한것으로판단됨. 서비스업생산이전월(2.6%) 과유사한전년동월대비 2.5% 증가하였으나, 소비관련 서비스업 ( 도소매업 1.7%, 숙박 음식점 2.2%, 예술 스포츠 여가.%) 은여전히 부진한상황 11 월중소비자심리지수는대내외불확실성이확대되며큰폭으로하락하여경제 주체들의향후경기에대한부정적인식을반영 최근소비자심리지수는연중기준치(1) 를중심으로소폭의등락을반복하였으나, 11월 중에는가계형편과경기전망이크게악화되면서 1 월(11.9) 대비큰폭으로하락한 95.8 을기록 소매판매액지수및소비자심리지수 ( 전년동기대비, %) ( 기준 =1) 소매판매액지수 ( 좌 ) 소비자심리지수 ( 우 )

8 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 설비투자 : 설비투자지수는개별소비세인하가종료된이후운송장비가큰폭으로 감소하면서부진을지속 1월중설비투자지수는운송장비(-17.1%) 가큰폭으로감소한가운데, 기계류 (1.5%) 의증가세도둔화되면서전년동월대비 4.9% 의증가율을기록 * 설비투자지수 ( 전년동월대비, %): (7 월) (8 월) 3.1 (9 월) -4. (1 월) -4.9 * 운송장비( 전년동월대비, %): (7 월) (8 월) -8.5 (9 월) (1 월) * 기계류( 전년동월대비, %): (7 월) -11. (8 월) 8.2 (9 월) 7.5 (1 월) 1.5 제조업평균가동률이 7% 대초반까지하락하고대내외불확실성도확대됨에따라 향후설비투자가단기간내에개선되기는쉽지않을것으로판단됨. 1월중제조업평균가동률이 7.3% 까지하락하였으며, 11월이후에는미국의정책불 확실성, 국내정치. 혼란등기업투자와관련된대내외여건이크게악화될것으로사료됨 다만, 1월중기계류내수출하가 9 월(1.2%) 에이어 5.2% 증가하였고, 11월중기계류 수입액속보치(11.1~11.2) 는 9 월(-2.2%) 과 1 월(-3.9%) 에비해소폭확대된전년동월 대비.1% 의증가율을기록 설비투자지수 (3MA) 및 제조업평균가동률 2 ( 전년동기대비, %, 3 개월이동평균 ) (%) 설비투자지수 ( 좌, 3MA) 제조업평균가동률 ( 우 ) 7 5

9 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 건설투자 : 건설투자는건설기성이높은증가세를지속하는가운데선행지표인건설수 주도개선되면서양호한모습 1 월중건설기성 ( 불변) 은건축부문이양호한증가세를지속한가운데토목부문도증가로 전환되면서전월(9.5%) 보다높은전년동월대비 17.3% 의증가율을기록 건설기성은전월(9.5%) 의일시적인증가폭축소에서반등하면서 3/4 분기(17.2%) 와유사한 17.3% 의증가율을기록 공종별로는건축부문이높은증가세(23.8%) 를지속하였고, 토목부문도증가(3.5%) 로전환 선행지표인건설수주 ( 경상) 는건축부문과토목부문이모두크게개선되면서전월의감소 (-4.%) 에서전년동월대비 41.2% 의증가로전환됨. 부문별로는건축부문이사무실 점포 (143.2%) 를중심으로개선되면서 32.6% 의증가로전 환되었고, 토목부문도도로 교량(646.%) 이큰폭으로확대된데기인하여 83.4% 의 높은증가율을기록 다만, 건설업경기실사지수가부진한것으로나타나향후건설투자의높은증가세가완만하게둔화될가능성을시사 한편, 아파트매매거래(74,28 호) 가수도권을중심으로비교적높은수준을유지하고 있으며, 미분양주택수는전월(6,7 호) 대비 4.9% 감소한 57,79호를기록 건설기성액(3MA) 과국내건설수주액 (3MA) ( 전년동기대비, %, 3 개월이동평균 ) 건설기성액 ( 좌, 3MA) 건설수주액 ( 우, 3MA) 6

10 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 수출 : 수출은대부분의주요품목에서증가로전환되면서일시적으로부진이완화 11 월중수출은전월(-3.2%) 의감소에서 2.7% 증가로전환되었으나, 일평균수출은 1.2% 감소를기록하는등여전히부진한흐름을지속하고있음. 품목별로는선박(-36.8%) 과무선통신기기 (-17.9%) 가큰폭으로감소하였으나, 석유제품 (2.8%) 및자동차(1.5%) 가증가로전환되고반도체의증가폭도확대(11.6%) 되는등대 부분의주요품목에서증가로전환 그러나조업일수(1 일) 의영향이제거된일평균수출액은전월(-3.2%) 에이어 1.2% 감소 하였으며, 가격요인이통제된수출물량지수도부진한흐름을지속 * 수출물량지수 ( 전년동월대비, %): (7 월).7 (8 월) 3.9 (9 월) -2.7 (1 월) -5.3 수입은소비재의완만한회복세가이어지고원자재와자본재도증가로전환되면서 1.1% 의비교적높은증가율을기록 소비재수입이전월(2.4%) 보다높은 8.9% 증가한가운데, 원자재(11.3%) 및자본재 (8.9%) 도각각전월의감소에서비교적큰폭의증가로전환 무역수지는전년동월(12.4 억달러) 보다축소된 8.억달러의흑자를기록 총수출(3MA) 과수출물량지수 (3MA) 8 ( 전년동기대비, %, 3 개월이동평균 ) 총수출 (3MA) 수출물량지수 (3MA) 7

11 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 1 월중국제수지 경상수지는상품수지의흑자폭이소폭축소되면서전년동월(95.8 억달러) 보다낮은 87.2억달러의흑자를기록 상품수지는수출감소폭(6.3%) 이수입감소폭(5.%) 을상회하면서흑자규모가전년 동월(19.7 억달러) 보다축소된 98.3억달러를기록 서비스수지는운송수지흑자폭은축소(4. 억달러 1.5 억달러) 되었으나여행수지적자폭이감소(-9.2 억달러 -5. 억달러) 함에따라전년동월 (-14.9 억달러) 과유사한 15.9억달러의적자를기록 본원소득수지는전년동월(5.3 억달러) 보다흑자폭이소폭확대(8.6 억달러) 되었고, 이전 소득수지는전년동월(-4.4 억달러) 과유사한 3.8억달러의적자를기록 계절조정경상수지(3MA) 와교역조건(3MA) 15 ( 억달러, 3 개월이동평균 ) ( 전년동기대비, %, 3 개월이동평균 ) 계절조정경상수지 ( 좌, 3MA) 교역조건 ( 우, 3MA) 금융계정은순자산증가가전월(95.8 억달러) 보다축소된 7.4억달러를기록 직접투자는내국인의해외주식투자증가등으로전월(1.2 억달러) 보다확대된 13.6억 달러를기록 증권투자는외국인의국내주식투자감소등으로전월(89.8 억달러) 보다확대된 98.7억 달러를기록 기타투자는대출, 현금및예금의감소등으로전월(-2.9 억달러) 보다축소된 36.6억달러 감소를기록 8

12 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 노동시장 : 제조업을중심으로상용직취업자증가폭이축소된반면, 비임금근로자증가 폭은확대되면서고용여건이악화되고있음. 1월중취업자는전년동월대비 27만 8 천명(1.1%) 이증가하여전월(26만 7 천명, 1.%) 과유사한증가폭을기록 산업별로는서비스업 (35만 6천명 37만 5 천명) 에서취업자증가폭이소폭확대되었으나, 제조업(-7만 6천명 -11만 5 천명) 에서는전월에이어취업자감소폭이확대되면서전반 적인고용부진이지속되고있음. 종사상지위별로는상용직(29만 3천명 25만 6 천명) 의증가폭감소세가지속되는가운데, 임시 일용직 (-11만 5천명 -9만 7 천명) 의감소폭은축소되고비임금근로자 (8만 9천명 12만명) 의증가폭은확대되면서고용의질도악화되고있음. 계절조정경제활동참가율 (63.% 62.8%) 이전월대비.2%p 하락하면서계절조정 실업률도.3%p 하락한 3.7% 를기록 한편, 계절조정고용률은전월과동일한 6.5% 를유지 주요산업별취업자증감 6 ( 전년동월대비, 천명 ) 전체제조업서비스업 9

13 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 물가 : 11월중소비자물가는전월과비슷한흐름을보이며전년동월대비 1.3% 의낮은 상승률을기록 상품물가는전월과동일한전년동월대비.7% 의상승률을기록 농축수산물가격은농산물가격 (1.3% 9.6%) 의상승폭이축소됨에따라전월(8.1%) 보다 낮은전년동월대비 7.9% 의상승률을기록 공업제품가격은전월(.3%) 과유사한전년동월대비.1% 상승한반면, 전기 수도 가스는 유가하락폭이축소되며전월(-8.2%) 보다높은 6.4% 의상승률을기록 서비스물가도전월과동일한전년동월대비 1.8% 의상승률을보임. 한편농산물및석유류제외근원물가와식료품및에너지제외근원물가는모두전월 (1.5%, 1.6%) 보다낮은 1.4% 의상승률을기록 아파트매매가격및전세가격모두전월과동일한전월대비.2% 의상승률을기록 소비자물가추이및부문별기여도 4 3 ( 전년동기대비, %, %p) 농축수산물공업제품서비스 전기 수도 가스소비자물가근원물가 주: 부문별. 기여도의합은반올림으로총지수의증감률과일치하지않을수있음 1

14 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 금융시장 : 국내금융시장은미국대선이후장기금리가큰폭으로상승하는가운데, 가계대출증가세는지속되는모습 미국대선이후경기부양에대한기대가높아지고기준금리인상속도도가팔라질 가능성이확대되면서 11 월중국내장기금리와원/ 달러환율이큰폭으로상승 국고채(3 년만기) 금리는전월말(1.44%) 대비 27bp 상승한 1.71% 를기록 원/ 달러환율은전월말(1,145.2 원) 대비 23.3원상승한 1,168.5원을기록 종합주가지수는대내외불확실성확대에따른투자심리위축등으로전월말 (2,8.2) 대비 24.7p 하락한 1,983.5를기록 한편, 1 월중은행가계대출은여전히높은증가세를지속하는한편, 11월중대출 금리는소폭상승 은행가계대출( 기간중증감액, 조원): ( 16년 7 월) 6.3 (8 월) 8.6 (9 월) 6. (1 월) 7.5 COFIX 금리( 신규취급액기준, %): ( 16년 7 월) 1.32 (8 월) 1.31 (9 월) 1.35 (1 월) 1.41 환율및금리 1,3 ( 원 ) (%) , , , 원 / 달러 ( 좌 ) 국고채 3 년 ( 우 ) 1. 11

15 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 세계경제 : 세계경제는비교적완만한성장세를지속할것으로전망되고있으나, 대선이후하방위험은확대된것으로판단됨. 미국 선진국은미국이전분기의부진에서반등하였으나, 유로존은소비와수출증가세가둔화되는등경제전반이미약한상태에머물러있음. 주요선진국의경제성장률 주요선진국의제조업심리지수 9 ( 전기대비연율, %) 6 ( 기준 =5) IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III 미국유로존일본 미국 ISM 제조업 유로존제조업 PMI 신흥시장국은중국과일부자원수출국의선행지표가완만하게상승하고있으나, 관련지표와수출부진으로실물경기둔화는지속되고있음. 내수 주요신흥국의수출 주요신흥국의제조업심리지수 2 ( 전년동기대비, %, 3 개월이동평균 ) 54 ( 기준 =5) 중국브라질러시아 중국브라질러시아 12

16 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 미국경제는투자관련지표의부진에도불구하고소비와주택및고용부문이대체로 양호한흐름을유지하면서성장세가확대 다만, 대선이후금리인상에대한우려와정치적불확실성의확대로세계경제를둘러싼하 방위험은여전히높은것으로평가됨. 미국의민간소비와고정투자 미국의취업자수와소비자심리지수 5 ( 전기대비연율, %) 2 5 ( 전기대비, 만명 ) (3개월이동평균, 기준 =1) IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III 민간소비 ( 좌 ) 고정투자 ( 우 ) 취업자수 ( 좌 ) 소비자심리지수 ( 우 ) 유로존경제는소비와생산, 수출등주요실물지표의증가세가둔화되면서경기회복 세가미약한수준에머물러있는것으로판단됨. 심리지수가상승세를유지하고있으나, 독일등일부핵심국가의수출부진이지속되고 하반기이후민간소비증가세도둔화되면서 3/4분기성장률은전기대비.3% 에그침. 유로존주요국의경제성장률 유로존의소매판매와경기체감지수 1.2 ( 전기대비, %) ( 전년동기대비, %) 4. ( 기준 =1) / / 헝가리 프랑스 독일 이탈리아 유로존 그리스 핀란드 영국 네덜란드 스페인 포르투갈 1. 소매판매 ( 좌 ) 경기체감지수 ( 우 ) 1 13

17 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 일본경제도생산, 소비및수출이감소세를지속하면서실물경기전반이부진한상태에 머물러있음. 1 월중에도산업생산(-1.3%) 과소매판매(-.1%) 의부진이지속되고, 수출(-1.3%) 도 미국과자원수출국을중심으로전월보다감소폭이확대된것으로나타남. 일본의산업생산과소매판매 일본의수출과수입 1 ( 전년동기대비, %) 2 ( 전년동기대비, %) 산업생산 소매판매 수출 수입 중국경제는경기선행지표가완만한상승세를유지하고있으나, 설비투자와수출부진이 지속되면서성장세가점차둔화되고있음. 제조업심리지수는하반기이후기준을상회하며완만하게상승하고있으나, 1월중수출 (-7.3%) 증가율이하락세를지속하고소매판매(1.%) 도자동차부문을중심으로둔화 중국의산업생산및소매판매 중국의설비투자와건설투자 14 ( 전년동기대비, %) 2 ( 전년동기대비, %) 산업생산 소매판매 설비투자 건설투자 14

18 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 11 월중주요상품가격지수는유가와곡물가격이하락하였으나, 비철금속을중심으로 완만한상승세를유지하는모습 12 월들어유가는주요산유국의감산합의이후급등(12월 1 일두바이기준: 11.1%) 하 였으며, 향후에도완만한상승세를유지할것으로예상되고있음. 주요원자재가격 주요상품가격지수 2 ( 전월대비, %) 3 2, , , , , -1 소맥 Dubai 옥수수알루미늄니켈아연구리 CRB( 좌 ) 로이터 ( 우 ) 주: 원자재가격은 11 월중( 기말기준) 증가율임. 주: 로이터지수는 11월 25 일기준. 한편, 216년세계경제는교역및투자위축등으로회복세가제한된범위에머물러있으나, 217년에는주요국의재정지출확대와원자재가격안정으로점차개선될것으로전망되고있음. OECD 는보호무역주의확산우려등하방위험이여전히높은상황이나, 각국의적극적인 재정정책및자원수출국의경기회복등을반영하여 3.3% 로소폭상향조정 217년세계경제의성장률전망치를 주요국의 217 년도경제성장률전망(OECD) 전망시점세계미국유로존일본중국브라질러시아 216년 6월 년 9월 년 11월 자료 : OECD, Economic Outlook, June September November 216. (%) 15

19 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 국제금융시장 : 트럼프당선이후달러화가치와주요국의장기금리가급등하는등국제 금융시장의변동성이확대 미국의금리인상우려와경기부양정책기대등으로미국등주요선진국의금리가 큰폭으로상승하였으며, 투자심리를반영하는지표들도급등락을반복 주요국의장기금리 VIX지수와신흥시장채권지수 3. (%) 미국독일일본 VIX( 좌 ) 신흥시장채권지수 ( 우 ) 3 한편, 신흥국의통화가치가큰폭으로하락한가운데, 미국, 일본등주요선진국의 주가지수는월중반이후다시상승하는모습 달러화대비주요국의통화절상률 주요국의주가변화율 4 (%) 6 (%) 일본 인도네시아 유로존 인도 러시아 한국 중국 영국 -6 인도네시아 인도 한국 유로존 미국 러시아 중국 일본 주: 전월말대비. 16

20 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 Summary and Assessment The Korean economy moderated as most economic indicators, except construction investment weakened. Though construction investment exhibited a high growth, private consumption growth weakened and facilities investment growth trended downward. Amid consumption-related services remained sluggish, retail sales growth slowed and consumer sentiment index tumbled, pointing to a weakening recovery of private consumption. Construction investment exhibited a relatively large growth mainly in the building construction sector, but facilities investment receded on continued sluggishness in transport equipment. Exports remained stagnant at a low level and manufacturing production and the number of employed dropped sharply, pointing to a slack in economic activity. November s exports turned to an increase on more workdays but remained sluggish in terms of volume. Manufacturing production decreased as the capacity utilization rate dropped to a very low level (7.3%) and the number of employed declined at an accelerating pace. The cyclical component of the coincident composite index continued last month s retreat, hinting at a slowdown in economic activity. All growth figures are on a year-on-year basis unless otherwise noted. This document is an English translation of the original Korean version; the Korean version takes precedence in case of any ambiguities or discrepancies. 17

21 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 Economic Activity: Mining and manufacturing production and shipments remained weak while services production stalled, pointing to a gradual slowdown in economic activity. October s all industry production recorded a 2.% growth, up from last month (1.3%), but was led by the construction sector, which has little relevance to economic trends. Services production recorded a relatively low growth of 2.5%, similar to last month (2.6%), with large gains in financial and insurance activities (7.7%) offset by losses in transportation (-2.9%). Mining and manufacturing production remained sluggish on a 1.6% growth, following last month s trend (-1.7%), as semiconductors improved (2.5% 11.7%) while telecommunications and broadcasting equipment tumbled (-21.5% -41.7%). The manufacturing capacity utilization rate recorded 7.3%, down from last month (71.6%), implying continuing sluggishness inproduction activities. Meanwhile, construction production rose 17.3%, up from last month (9.5%), mainly on the disappearing base effect. Mining and Manufacturing Production (3MA) and Service Production Index (3MA) 6 (Year-on-Year % Change, 3MA) Mining and Manufacturing Production Index (3MA) Service Production Index (3MA) Manufacturing shipments continued the downward trend while the inventory-to-shipments ratio inched up. Manufacturing shipments retreated 2.3% on continued decreases in both domestic (-1.7%) and export shipments (-3.2%), influenced by the continuing impact of fewer workdays (.5 day). The manufacturing inventory-to-shipments ratio stood at 119.8%, up from last month (117.7%), on a reversal in the semiconductor inventory. 18

22 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 Shipment Index (3MA) and Inventory-Shipment Ratio 3 (Year-on-Year % Change, 3MA) (%) Manufacturing Shipment Index (left, 3MA) Manufacturing Inventory-Shipment Ratio (right) Meanwhile, the cyclical component of the coincident composite index registered 1.6, down from last month (1.9), on a continued slump in mining and manufacturing production, implying a gradual slowdown in economic activity. The cyclical component of the leading composite index recorded 11., an inch up from last month (1.9), on increases in the domestic machinery shipment index and job-opening-to-job-seeker ratio. Cyclical Component of Composite Economic Indices 11.5 (Base=1) Cyclical Component of Coincident Index Cyclical Component of Leading Index 19

23 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 Consumption: The retail sales growth slowed and consumer sentiment index tumbled on growing uncertainties at home and abroad, indicating a weakening recovery in the private consumption. October s retail sales inched up mainly in non-durable goods with a low growth of 2.3%, suggesting that the pace of recovery in private consumption has weakened. By item, non-durable goods had gains in growth (3.9%) while durable goods posted reduced growth (.6%) due to the decrease in passenger car sales (-3.1%). Semi-durable goods also saw losses in growth (1.1%). On a seasonally adjusted QoQ basis, they expanded quite remarkably by 5.2% mainly due to the base effect from last month s sharp drop in growth ( 4.5%). Services production grew 2.5%, similar to last month (2.6%), but continuing sluggish growth was observed in consumption-related services wholesale and retail trade (1.7%), accommodation and good services (-2.2%) and arts, sports & recreation related services (.%). November s composite consumer sentiment index (CCSI) dropped sharply on growing uncertainties at home and abroad, implying that economic agents have pessimistic economic prospects for the future. The index exhibited slight ups and downs near the baseline (1) throughout the year, but November saw it tumble to 95.8, far below October (11.9), on deteriorating household conditions and economic prospects. Retail Sales Index and Composite Consumer Sentiment Index (Year-on-Year % Change) (Base=1) Retail Sales Index (left) Composite Consumer Sentiment Index (right) 2

24 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 Facilities Investment: Equipment investment index continued to trend down on a sharp decrease in transport equipment after the expiry of the excise tax cut. October s equipment investment index recorded a growth of -4.9% with a sharp drop in transport equipment (-17.1%) and slowdown in machinery (1.5%). * Equipment investment index (YoY, %): (Jul.) (Aug.) 3.1 (Sep.) -4. (Oct.) -4.9 * Transport equipment (YoY, %): (Jul.) ( Aug.) -8.5 ( Sep.) ( Oct.) * Machinery (YoY, %): (Jul.) -11. ( Aug.) 8.2 ( Sep.) 7.5 ( Oct.) 1.5 The manufacturing capacity utilization rate dropped to a low 7%-range as internal and external uncertainties expanded, implying that facilities investment is unlikely to improve in the short-term. October s manufacturing capacity utilization rate fell to 7.3% and internal and external conditions related to corporate investment have significantly deteriorated since November, including US policy uncertainties and domestic political turmoil. Meanwhile, October s domestic machinery shipments increased 5.2% following last month s trend (1.2%), and machinery import (advance estimate for Nov. 1st~2th) registered a.1% growth, slightly up from September (-2.2%) and October (-3.9%). Equipment Investment Index (3MA) and Manufacturing Average Capacity Utilization Rate 2 (Year-on-Year % Change, 3MA) (%) Equip. Investment Index (left, 3MA) Manuf. Average Capacity Utilization Rate (right) 21

25 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 Construction Investment: The value of construction completed continued the fast growth and construction orders received, a leading indicator, improved, implying favorable conditions in construction investment. October s value of construction completed (constant) enhanced 17.3%, up from last month (9.5%), with building construction continuing on a steady growth and civil engineering turning to an increase. The value of construction completed registered a 17.3% growth, similar to the third quarter (17.2%) on a rebound from last month (9.5%). By sector, building construction maintained high growth (23.8%) while civil engineering swung to an increase (3.5%). Construction orders received (current), as a leading indicator, increased 41.2%, reversing from last month s decrease (-4.%), as both sectors for building construction and civil engineering improved remarkably. By sector, building construction swung to a 32.6% growth led by improvements in offices and stores (143.2%), while civil engineering recorded a high growth of 83.4% thanks to large increases in roads and bridges (646.%). Meanwhile, the BSI remained sluggish, hinting at the possibility that the momentum of high growth in construction investment will moderate gradually. Meanwhile, growth in apartment sales transactions (74,28) continued to increase mainly in the capital region while unsold pre-sale housing units dropped 4.9% from last month (6,7) to 57,79. Value of Construction Completed (3MA) and Construction Ordered Received (3MA) (Year-on-Year % Change, 3MA) Value of Construction Completed (left, 3MA) Construction Orders Received (right, 3MA) 22

26 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 Exports: Exports exhibited a temporary moderation of the slump on increases in major key item exports. November s exports reversed to a 2.7% growth from last month s decrease (-3.2%) but exports per day diminished 1.2%, implying continued sluggishness. By item, vessels (-36.8%) and wireless communication devices (-17.9%) posted large losses but most key items reversed to a growth with petroleum products (2.8%) and motor vehicles (1.5%) turning to an increase and semiconductor (11.6%) accelerating faster. Exports per day, after removing the impact of increased workdays (+1), slid 1.2% following last month s trend (-3.2%), and the export volume index, excluding price factors, continued to trend down. * Export volume index (YoY, %): (Jul.).7 (Aug.) 3.9 (Sep.) -2.7 (Oct.) -5.3 Imports recorded a relatively high growth of 1.1%, as consumer goods continued a modest recovery and raw materials and capital goods swung to an increase. November s imports of consumer goods recorded a 8.9% growth, up from last month (2.4%), while raw materials (11.3%) and capital goods (8.9%) reversed last month s losses to relatively large gains. Trade balance ran a surplus of $8. billion, down from last year ($1.24 billion). Exports (3MA) and Export Volume Indexes (3MA) 8 (Year-on-Year % Change, 3MA ) Exports (3MA) Export Volume Indexes (3MA) 23

27 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 October s Balance of Payments The current account recorded a slightly reduced surplus of $8.72 billion from last year ($9.58 billion), as the goods account posted a slightly smaller surplus. The goods account recorded a surplus of $9.83 billion, slightly smaller than a year ago ($1.97 billion), as exports retreated by a larger margin (6.3%) than imports (5.%). The services account recorded a deficit of $1.59 billion, similar to a year ago (-$1.49 billion), as the transport account recorded a reduced surplus ($.4 billion $.15 billion) but travel account recorded a reduced deficit (-$.92 billion -$.5 billion). The primary income account recorded a slightly increased surplus of $.86 billion from last year ($.53 billion), while the secondary income account recorded a slightly reduced deficit of $.38 billion (-$.44 billion). Seasonally Adjusted Current Account (3MA) and Terms of Trade (3MA) 15 (Hundred Million US Dollars, 3MA) (Year-on-Year % Change, 3MA) S.A. Current Account (left, 3MA) Terms of Trade (right, 3MA) The financial account recorded a $7.4 billion increase in net assets, down from a month ago ($9.58 billion). Direct investment marked $1.36 billion, up from last month ($1.2 billion) on an increase in outbound investment. Portfolio investment recorded $9.87 billion, up from last month ($8.98 billion) on a decrease in foreigners inbound investment in Korean stocks. Other investments recorded a $3.66 billion decrease in net assets, smaller than last month (-$.29 billion), on decreases in loan, cash and deposit 24

28 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 Labor Market: Growth in the employment of regular workers receded mainly in manufacturing while the employment of non-wage workers exhibited higher growth, indicating a further aggravation in employment conditions. October s employment growth recorded 278, (1.1%), similar to last month (267,7, 1.%). By industry, services posted a slight increase (356, 375,) but manufacturing posted a larger decrease than last month (-76, -115,), implying continued weakness in overall employment conditions. By occupational status, regular (293, 256,) workers continued to shrink while temporary and daily workers (-115, -97,) dropped less and non-wage workers (89, 12,) increased more, pointing to a continued deterioration in employment quality. On a seasonally-adjusted basis, the labor force participation rate (63.% 62.8%) dropped.2%p and the unemployment rate decreased.3%p to 3.7%. Meanwhile, the seasonally-adjusted employment rate recorded 6.5%, the same as last month. Changes in the Number of Employed Persons by Sector 6 (Year-on-Year Change, Thousand Persons) All sectors Manufacturing sector Service sector 25

29 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 CPI: November s headline CPI inflation remained low with 1.3%, following a similar trend as last month. Commodity prices rose.7%, the same as last month. Prices of agricultural, livestock and fishery products registered a 7.9% growth, lower than last month (8.1%), on reduced growth in agricultural product prices (1.3% 9.6%). Industrial goods prices registered a.1% growth, following last month s increase (.3%), while utility fees (water, electricity and gas) registered a 6.4% growth, up from last month (-8.2%), influenced by the slower decline in oil prices. Services prices rose 1.8%, the same as last month. Core inflation, excluding agricultural and petroleum products, stood at 1.4%, down from last month (1.5%) while that excluding food and energy stood at 1.4%, down from last month (1.6%). Prices of both apartment purchases and jeonse rose.2% MoM, the same as last month. CPI Change and Contribution by Sector 4 3 Agricultural Service CPI (Year-on-Year, %, %p) Manufacturing Electricity, water, and gas Core CPI Note: The sum of sector-by-sector contributions is rounded off to the nearest integer, which may be inconsistent with the growth rate of the total index. 26

30 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 Financial Market: The long-term interest rate showed a rapid increase following the US presidential election while household loans continued to expand. The long-term interest and dollar/won exchange rates ascended sharply during November on rising expectations of an economic stimulus package in the US following the presidential election and growing odds of a rapid rate hike. Government bonds yields (3-year maturity) recorded 1.71%, up by 27bp from a month ago (1.44%). The dollar/won exchange rate recorded 1,168.5 won, up by 23.3 won from a month ago (1,145.2 won). The KOSPI closed at 1,983.5, down by 24.7p from last month (2,8.2) on weakened investment sentiment burdened by mounting uncertainties at home and abroad. Meanwhile, October s bank loans to households continued to rise at a high rate while November s loan rates inched up. Bank loans to households (change, trillion won): (Jul. 16) 6.3 (Aug.) 8.6 (Sep.) 6. (Oct.) 7.5 COFIX rate (new acquired funds, %): (Jul. 16) 1.32 (Aug.) 1.31 (Sep.) 1.35 (Oct.) 1.41 Exchange Rates and 3-year Treasury Bond 1,3 (won) (%) , , , KRW/USD (left) 3-year Treasury Bond (right) 27

31 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 World Economy: A relatively modest growth is expected, but downward risks have increased following the US presidential election. Among advanced economies, the US rebounded from last month s slump while the Eurozone remained weak with slowing growth in consumption and exports. 9 GDP Growth Rates in the US, Eurozone, and Japan (QoQ annualized rate, %) 6 Manufacturing Indices in the US and Eurozone (Base=5) IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III US Eurozone Japan US ISM Eurozone PMI Emerging markets showed continuing sluggishness in the real economy with domestic demand-related indicators and exports remained in a slump; although China and a few resource-exporting countries exhibited a moderate increase in leading indicators. 2 Exports in China, Brazil, and Russia (Year-on-Year % Change, 3MA) 54 Manufacturing Indices in China, Brazil, and Russia (Base=5) China Brazil Russia China Brazil Russia 28

32 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 The US exhibited increased growth with consumption, housing and employment remaining generally favorable despite shrinking investmentrelated indicators. However, global downside risks are deemed to still run very high due to concerns over a US rate hike and growing political uncertainties in the postpresidential election period. 5 US Personal Consumption and Fixed Investment (QoQ annualized rate, %) 2 5 US Employment and Consumer Sentiment (MoM Change, 1 Thousand Persons) (3MA, Base=1) IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III Personal Consumption (left) Fixed Investment (right) Employed Persons (left) Consumer Sentiment (right) The Eurozone showed a tepid recovery as the growth of key real indicators including consumption, production and exports moderated. The sentiment index continued to trend up but 3Q growth recorded a mere.3% on a QoQ basis as a leading countries including Germany exhibited a continued slump in exports and slowing growth in private consumption since the second half GDP Growth Rates in Eurozone (Quarter-on-Quarter % Change) 216 2/ /4 Retail Sales and Sentiment Indicator in Eurozone (Year-on-Year % Change) (Base=1) Hungary France Germany Italy Eurozone Greece Finland UK Netherlands Spain Portugal 1. 1 Retail Sales (left) Sentiment Indicator (right) 29

33 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 Japan s overall real economy stagnated with continued declines in production, consumption and exports. October industrial production (-1.3%) and retail sales (-.1%) remained in a slump, and exports (-1.3%), largely to the US and resource exporting countries, dwindled further than last month. 1 Japan's Industrial Production and Retail Sales (Year-on-Year % Change) 2 Japan's Exports and Imports (Year-on-Year % Change) Industrial Production Retail Sales Exports Imports China maintained a gradual recovery in its leading indicators, but growth slowed gradually on continued sluggishness in facilities investment and exports. The manufacturing sentiment index has enhanced since the second half, exceeding the baseline, but October s export growth (-7.3%) continued to slide and retail sales growth (1.%) slowed mainly in motor vehicles. 14 China's Industrial Production and Retail Sales (Year-on-Year % Change) 2 China's Equipment Investment and Construction Investment (Year-on-Year % Change) Industrial Production Retail Sales Equipment Investment Construction Investment 3

34 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 In November, major commodity price indices continued a modest growth mainly in non-ferrous metals despite the drops in oil and grain prices. Entering December, oil prices soared (Dubai, 11.1% as of Dec. 1) after major oil producing countries agreed to cut output; projected to sustain a modest growth in the future. Prices of Key Raw Materials CRB and Reuters Indices of Commodity Prices 2 (Month-on-Month % Change) 3 2, , , ,2-1 Wheat Dubai Corn Aluminum Nickel Zinc Copper 15 CRB (left) Reuters (right) 2, Note: Growth rate as of the end-november. Note: Reuters as of Nov. 18 th. Meanwhile, the global recovery has been limited in 216 due to shrinking trade and investment, but is projected to improve gradually from 217 as major countries expand fiscal expenditure and raw material prices stabilize. The OECD slightly revised up its global growth outlook to 3.3%, taking into account active fiscal policies in several countries and the economic recovery of resource exporting countries, although downside risks such as widespread protectionism still run high. 217 World Economic Outlook (OECD) Release Date World US Eurozone Japan China Brazil Russia Jun Sep Nov Source: OECD, Economic Outlook, June September November 216. (%) 31

35 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 Global Financial Markets: The dollar appreciated and long-term interest rates of major countries soared on the election of Donald Trump as president, implying heightened volatility in global financial markets. Interest rates of major advanced economies including the US rose significantly on concerns over a US rate hike and expectations of stimulus policies and other indicators that reflect investment sentiment repeated ups and downs. 3. Long-Term Interest Rates in the US, Germany, and Japan (%) 35 VIX and Emerging Market Bond Index US Germany Japan VIX (left) EMBI (right) 3 Meanwhile, a sharp depreciation was observed mainly in emerging markets while stock prices in major advanced economies such as the US and Japan rebounded upward after mid-month. 4 Major Currency Revaluation Rates against USD (%) 6 Changes in Stock Prices (%) Japan Indonesia Note: MoM Eurozone India Russia Korea China UK -6 Indonesia India Korea Eurozone US Russia China Japan 32

36 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 경제동향주요지표 Major Indicators of the Korean Economy

37 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 국내총생산및국내총소득 (21 년불변가격 ) 민간소비및고정투자(21 년불변가격) GDP and GDI Private Consumption and Fixed Investment (at 21 Constant Prices) (at 21 Constant Prices) 8 ( 전년동기대비, % / Year-on-Year % Change) 15 ( 전년동기대비, % / Year-on-Year % Change) IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III 1 IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III 213 국내총생산 (GDP) 국내총소득 (GDI) 213 민간소비 (Private Consumption) 설비투자 (Facilities Investment) 건설투자 (Construction Investment) 상품및서비스수출(21 년불변가격) 상품및서비스수입(21 년불변가격) Exports of Goods and Services Imports of Goods and Services (at 21 Constant Prices) (at 21 Constant Prices) 15 ( 전년동기대비, % / Year-on-Year % Change) 15 ( 전년동기대비, % / Year-on-Year % Change) IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III -5 IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III 상품수출 (Exports of Goods) 서비스수출 (Exports of Services) 상품수입 (Imports of Goods) 서비스수입 (Imports of Services) 34

38 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 1. 국내총생산(21 년불변가격) Gross Domestic Product (at 21 Constant Prices) GDP 민간소비 Private Consumption 설비투자 Facilities Investment 국내총생산 건설투자 Construction Investment 총수출 Total Export 총수입 Total Import ( 조원, Trillion Won) 국내총소득 Gross Domestic Income 29 1, , , , , , , , , , , , p 1, , Ⅲ Ⅳ Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ Ⅰ p Ⅱ p Ⅲ p Ⅳ p Ⅰ p Ⅱ p Ⅲ p 전년동기대비증가율 (%) Percentage Change from the Same Period of the Previous Year p Ⅲ 3.2 (.8) 1.9 ( 1.1) 2.3 ( 3.6) 7.5 (-1.5) 2.5 (-.4).9 (.2) 4.2 ( 1.2) Ⅳ 3.5 (.9) 2.2 (.6) 11.7 ( 4.) 3.5 (-2.4) 3.1 ( 1.1) 5. ( 2.6) 4.3 (.6) 214 Ⅰ 3.9 ( 1.1) 2.8 (.4) 7.4 (-1.1) 4.5 ( 3.3) 3.5 (.8) 2.7 (-1.6) 4.8 ( 1.2) Ⅱ 3.5 (.6) 1.7 (-.3) 7.9 ( 1.3).3 ( 1.1) 2.8 ( 1.1) 2. (.8) 3.8 (.7) Ⅲ 3.4 (.7) 1.4 (.7) 4.4 (.3) 2.3 (-.8) 1.3 (-1.5) 1.7 (-.1) 3. (.3) Ⅳ 2.7 (.3) 1.1 (.3) 4.4 ( 3.5) -1.7 (-4.9).7 (.3) -.4 (.4) 3.6 ( 1.4) 215 Ⅰ p 2.4 (.8) 1.5 (.8) 5.8 (.5).9 ( 5.5).5 (.6) 2.1 (.9) 6.1 ( 3.5) Ⅱ p 2.2 (.4) 1.7 (-.1) 5.1 (.8) 1. ( 1.8) -.4 (-.1) 1.6 (.4) 6.4 ( 1.) Ⅲ p 2.8 ( 1.2) 2.2 ( 1.1) 6.7 ( 1.8) 5.6 ( 3.3).5 (-.3) 3.1 ( 1.4) 7. ( 1.) Ⅳ p 3.1 (.7) 3.3 ( 1.4) 3.9 (.5) 7.5 (-2.4) 2.5 ( 2.1) 6.1 ( 3.2) 6.1 (.7) 216 Ⅰ p 2.8 (.5) 2.2 (-.2) -4.5 (-7.4) 9.6 ( 6.8).7 (-1.1) 1.9 (-3.1) 5.6 ( 3.) Ⅱ p 3.3 (.8) 3.3 ( 1.) -2.7 ( 2.8) 1.8 ( 3.1) 1.9 ( 1.1) 3.3 ( 2.1) 4.6 (-.2) Ⅲ p 2.6 (.6) 2.7 (.5) -4.2 (.2) 11.4 ( 3.5) 2.7 (.6) 4.9 ( 2.8) 3.2 (-.4) 주 : 1) p 는잠정치. 2) ( ) 는계절조정전기대비증가율. 자료 : 한국은행. Note: 1) p is preliminary. 2) Figures in parentheses indicate percentage changes from the previous period (S.A.). Source: Bank of Korea. 35

39 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 생산지수 Production Indices 출하지수및재고지수 Shipment and Inventory Indices 6 ( 전년동기대비, % / Year-on-Year % Change) 9 ( 전년동기대비, % / Year-on-Year % Change) 전산업생산지수 (All Industry Prod. Index) 광공업생산지수 (Mining and Manufac. Prod. Index) -9 출하지수 (Shipment Index) 서비스업생산지수 (Service Prod. Index) 재고지수 (Inventory Index) 경기종합지수순환변동치한국은행 BSI 제조업실적및전망(S.A.) Cyclical Component of Economic Indices BOK Business Survey Index (Seasonally Adjusted) 11.5 ( 기준 =1 / Base=1) 85 ( 기준 =1 / Base=1) 동행지수순환변동치 (Composite Coincident Index) 선행지수순환변동치 (Composite Leading Index) 6 12 BSI 제조업실적 (BSI Manufac. Tendency) BSI 제조업전망 (BSI Manufac. Future Tendency) 36

40 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 2. 경기 Economic Activity 전산업 2) All Industry Production 생산지수 Production Indices 광공업 3) Mining and Manufacturing Production 서비스업 Service Production 생산자제품 Producer's Product 출하 Shipment 재고 Inventory 경기종합지수순환변동치 1) Cyclical Component of Economic Indices 동행지수 Composite Coincident Index 선행지수 Composite Leading Index ( 전년동기대비, % / Year-on-Year % Change) 한국은행 BSI 1) ( 제조업, 계절조정) BOK BSI (Manufacturing, S.A.) 실적 Tendency 전망 Future Tendency 제조업평균가동률 Capacity Utilization Rate (%) Ⅰ 1. (.2) -1.1 (-.3) 2.7 (.5) -.6 (-.8) 2. ( 3.1) Ⅱ 1. (.2) -1.3 (-.5) 2.7 (.5) -1.1 (-.5) 4.5 ( 2.3) Ⅲ 2.1 ( 1.6) -.1 ( 1.7) 2.9 ( 1.2).9 ( 2.1) 6.7 ( 2.6) Ⅳ 2.4 (.5) -.1 (-.9) 3.3 ( 1.2) -.1 (-.7) 3. (-5.3) Ⅰ 2.3 (.1) -.2 (-.6) 2.8 (-.2) -.8 (-1.7) 3. ( 4.) Ⅱ 3.6 ( 1.5) 1. ( 1.) 3.7 ( 1.6) 1.3 ( 1.8) -2.2 (-2.6) Ⅲ p 3.2 (.9).7 (.6) 3.6 (.8).2 (.4) -7.4 (-3.5) Ⅳ (-.1) -2.2 (-.7) 4.3 (.7) -1.4 (-.7) 2.3 ( 1.7) (-.5) -3. (-1.2) 2.3 (-.6) -3. (-.7) 2.6 (-1.3) (.3) 1.6 ( 1.9) 1.5 (-1.) 1. ( 1.) 4.5 ( 1.8) (.5) -3.4 (-.7) 2.6 ( 1.5) -1.9 (-.2) 3.4 (.3) ( 1.2).2 ( 1.9) 2.3 (.5).4 ( 1.9) 5.3 (.7) ( 1.) 3. (.9) 3.8 (.5) 4.2 ( 1.7) 6.7 ( 1.6) (-.8) 2.1 (-1.3) 3. (.2) 2.9 (-1.3) 4.7 (-1.) (-.5) -.2 (-1.5) 3. (.) -1. (-2.1) 5.4 (-1.) ( 1.5) -2.1 (.6) 3.7 ( 1.2) -2.1 ( 1.) 3. (-3.3) (-1.4) -2.2 (-2.1) 3. (-1.2) -3.9 (-3.9) 4.3 ( 1.9) (.7) 2.3 ( 3.2) 2.8 (.3).9 ( 2.4) 3.6 ( 1.9) (.7) -.5 (-1.2) 2.5 (.4).9 ( 2.2) 3. (.1) (-.7) -2.5 (-1.) 2. (.7) -1.5 (-1.6) -1. (-2.2) ( 2.) 4.7 ( 2.8) 3.7 (.2) 3.9 ( 1.5).4 (.1) (.7).9 (-.3) 5.4 ( 1.1) 1.6 (.6) -2.2 (-.5) (.) 1.6 ( 1.3) 3.2 (-.3).9 (.4) -2.5 (-.5) p 5.1 (.) 2.3 (-2.4) 4.8 (.8) 2. (-2.) -4.8 (-1.7) p 1.3 (-.8) -1.7 (.6) 2.6 (-.7) -2.2 ( 1.2) -7.4 (-1.4) p 2. (-.4) -1.6 (-1.7) 2.5 (-.2) -2. (-1.7) -6.1 (.2) 주 : 1) 기준치=1. 2) 213~14 년연간지수는농림어업포함. 3) 광업, 제조업, 전기 가스업을포함. 4) p 는잠정치( 한국은행 BSI 제외). 5) ( ) 는계절조정전기대비증가율. 자료 : 통계청; 한국은행. Note: 1) Base=1. 2) Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries sectors is included for annual index in 213~214. 3) Mining & Manufacturing, Electricity & Gas Industry. 4) p is preliminary (BOK BSI are excluded). 5) Figures in parentheses indicate percentage changes from the previous period (S.A.). Source: Statistics Korea; Bank of Korea. 37

41 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 민간소비( 소비재) 와소매판매액지수유형별소매판매액지수 Private Consumption (Consumer Goods) and Retail Retail Sales Index by Group of Goods Sales Index 1 ( 전년동기대비, % / Year-on-Year % Change) 25 ( 전년동기대비, % / Year-on-Year % Change) 민간소비 ( 소비재 ) (Private Comsumption (Consumer Goods)) 소매판매액지수 (Retail Sales Index) 내구재 (Durable goods) 준내구재 (Semi-durable goods) 비내구재 (Non-durable goods) 소비재출하지수및소비재수입액 Consumer Goods Shipment Index and Consumer Goods Import 소비자동향조사 Consumer Survey 28 ( 전년동기대비, % / Year-on-Year % Change) 112 ( 기준 =1 / Base=1) 소비재출하 (Consumer Goods Shipment Index) 소비재수입 (Consumer Goods Import) 94 소비자심리지수 (Composite Consumer Sentiment Index) 소비지출전망 (Prospective Household Spending) 38

42 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 3. 소비 Consumption Retail Sales Index 소매판매액 유형별지수 by Group of Goods 비내구재준내구재 Nondurable Quasidurable 내구재 Durable 승용차 Automobile 소비재출하 Consumer Goods Shipment Index 소비재수입 1) Consumer Goods Import ( 전년동기대비, % / Year-on-Year % Change) 소비자심리지수 Composite Consumer Sentiment Index (CCSI) 소비자동향조사 2) Consumer Survey 현재경기판단 Current Domestic Economic Conditions 향후경기전망 Prospective Domestic Economic Conditions 소비지출전망 Prospective Household Spending Ⅱ 1.1 (.8) Ⅲ.5 (.5) Ⅳ 1.1 (.1) Ⅰ 2.6 ( 1.1) Ⅱ 1.2 (-.5) Ⅲ 2. ( 1.4) Ⅳ 2.4 (.3) Ⅰ 2.2 ( 1.) Ⅱ 3.4 (.7) Ⅲ 3.6 ( 1.3) Ⅳ 6.1 ( 3.1) Ⅰ 4.6 (-1.) Ⅱ 6.2 ( 2.8) Ⅲ p 3.6 (-1.7) (-.3) (.1) (-1.4) (-1.5) ( 4.4) (-.5) (.9) ( 1.1) (-2.5) ( 2.) p.6 (-4.5) p 2.3 ( 5.2) 주 : 1) 소비재수입액을전월의소비재수입물가지수로실질화. 2) 기준=1. 3) p 는잠정치( 단, 소비자동향조사는제외). 4) ( ) 는계절조정전기대비증가율. 자료 : 한국은행; 통계청; 한국무역협회. Note: 1) Nominal consumer goods import deflated by import price index (consumer goods) of the previous month. 2) Base=1. 3) p is preliminary (Consumer survey is excluded). 4) Figures in parentheses indicate percentage changes from the previous period (S.A.). Source: Bank of Korea; Statistics Korea; Korea International Trade Association. 39

43 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 형태별설비투자지수 Equipment Investment Index by Type 설비투자지수와기계류내수출하지수 Equipment Investment Index and Domestic Machinery Shipment Index 5 ( 전년동기대비, % / Year-on-Year % Change) 2 ( 전년동기대비, % / Year-on-Year % Change) 기계류 (Machinery) 운송장비 (Transport Equipment) -15 설비투자지수 (Equipment Investment Index) 기계류내수출하지수 (Domestic Machinery Shipment Index) 내수용자본재수입액과기계류수입액 Import of Capital Good for Domestic Demand and Machinery Import 국내기계수주 Domestic Machinery Orders Received 3 ( 전년동기대비, % / Year-on-Year % Change) 6 ( 전년동기대비, % / Year-on-Year % Change) 내수용자본재수입액 (Import of Capital Good for Domestic Demand) 기계류수입액 (Machinery Import) -8 총수주액 (Total) 민간수주액 (Private) 4

44 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 4. 설비투자 Equipment Investment Equipment Investment Index 설비투자지수 기계류 Machinery 운송장비 Transport Equipment 기계류내수출하지수 1) Domestic Machinery Shipment Index 기계류수입액 2) Machinery Import Domestic Machinery Orders Received ( 십억원, Billion Won, 21=1) 국내기계수주 3) 공공 Public 민간 Private ,193 26,487 5,12 21, ,414 25,545 1,921 23, Ⅱ ,278 7, ,524 Ⅲ ,839 5, ,197 Ⅳ ,751 6, , Ⅰ ,397 6, ,851 Ⅱ ,175 6, ,241 Ⅲ p ,475 5, , ,151 1, , ,912 2, , ,98 1, , ,324 2, , ,94 2, , ,412 1, , ,632 2, , ,132 2, , ,263 2, , , ,572 9 p ,254 1, ,644 1 p ,463 1, ,723 전년동기대비증가율 (%) Percentage Change from the Same Period of the Previous Year Ⅱ 4.5 ( -2.2) ( 8.6) Ⅲ 1.2 ( 5.2) (-1.) Ⅳ 1.6 ( -1.2) ( 9.2) Ⅰ -7.1 ( -8.7) ( -6.3) Ⅱ.8 ( 6.4) ( 4.6) Ⅲ p -4.8 ( -1.5) ( -5.8) ( -5.2) ( -8.1) ( 3.7) ( 23.) ( -6.5) (-3.2) ( -7.1) ( 36.4) ( 6.1) ( -8.) ( 3.1) (-1.1) (.1) ( 7.4) ( 5.) ( 19.2) (-11.9) (-15.6) ( 13.6) ( -8.7) p -4. ( -2.1) ( 1.8) p -4.9 ( -.4) (-1.9) 주 : 1) 선박제외. 2) 백만달러. 3) 선박제외, 21 년불변가격. 4) p 는잠정치( 단, 기계류수입액은제외). 5) ( ) 는계절조정전기대비증가율. 자료 : 한국은행; 통계청; 무역협회. Note: 1) Vessels are excluded. 2) Million US Dollars. 3) Vessels are excluded, at 21 Constant Prices. 4) p is preliminary (Machinery Import is excluded). 5) Figures in parentheses indicate percentage changes from the previous period (S.A.). Source: Bank of Korea; Statistics Korea; International Trade Association. 41

45 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 건설기성액( 불변가격) 및국내건설수주공사종류별건설기성액( 불변가격) Construction Completed (at 21 Constant Prices) Value of Construction Completed by Type and Construction Orders Received (at 21 Constant Prices) 28 ( 전년동기대비, % / Year-on-Year % Change) ( 전년동기대비, % / Year-on-Year % Change) 건설기성액 ( 좌 ) / Value of Cons. Completed (left) 국내건설수주 ( 우 ) / Cons. Orders Received (right) 건축 (Building) 토목 (Civil Engineering) 건축허가면적및건축착공면적 Building Construction Permits and Building Construction Initiated 주택인허가및미분양주택수 Housing Construction Permits and Number of Unsold Houses 1 ( 전년동기대비, % / Year-on-Year % Change) ( 전년동기비, % / Y-on-Y %)( 전월비, 호 / M-on-M Unit) 건축허가면적 (Building Construction Permits) 건축착공면적 (Building Construction Initiated) -8 주택인허가 ( 좌 ) / Housing Construction Permits (left) 미분양 ( 우 ) / Num. of Unsold Houses (right) -1 42

46 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 5. 건설투자 Construction Investment 건설기성액 1) Value of Construction Completed 합계 Total 공사종류별 By Type 건축 Building 토목 Civil Engineering 국내건설수주 Construction Orders Received 건축허가면적 Building Construction Permits ( 십억원, 천m2, 호, Billion Won, Thousand m2, Unit) 건축착공면적 Building Construction Initiated 주택인허가 Housing Construction Permits 미분양주택수 3) Number of Unsold Houses ,67 55,94 33,73 9,66 141, , ,251 4, ,713 59,265 32, , ,84 152, ,328 61, Ⅲ 22,788 15,15 7,638 36,44 57,537 36,468 24,6 32,524 Ⅳ 26,551 17,189 9,362 37,27 51,79 45,52 225,188 61, Ⅰ 22,322 15,95 7,227 28,927 4,636 28, ,9 53,845 Ⅱ 27,328 18,43 8,898 32,992 49,3 4, ,3 59,999 Ⅲ p 26,698 18,624 8,74 37,426 43,258 35,82 164,243 6, ,812 5,325 2,487 1,378 17,159 18,131 64,2 32, ,19 5,465 2,554 13,226 16,13 15,96 62,823 49, ,72 6,398 4,322 13,666 18,51 11,412 98,165 61, ,84 4,656 2,148 7,225 12,199 6,938 47,536 6, ,729 4,66 2,7 1,14 12,259 8,886 53,723 55,13 3 8,789 5,779 3,1 11,687 16,179 12,687 61,75 53, ,187 5,643 2,544 1,828 15,583 14,456 59,675 53, ,636 5,919 2,717 9,657 16,196 13,28 52,713 55, ,55 6,868 3,637 12,57 17,251 12,793 79,912 59, ,668 6,12 2,655 12,55 16,61 12,917 61,387 63,127 8 p 9,17 6,28 2,737 13,415 15,74 11,522 54,832 62,562 9 p 9,13 6,332 2,682 11,462 11,573 11,381 48,24 6,7 1 p 9,165 6,591 2,574 14,652 14,637 11,797 52,438 57,79 전년동기대비증가율 (%) Percentage Change from the Same Period of the Previous Year , , Ⅲ 6.2 ( 6.4) ( 21.3) ,544 Ⅳ 8. (.) (-26.5) , Ⅰ 14.8 ( 9.4) ( 17.7) ,667 Ⅱ 19.2 ( 2.3) (-1.2) ,154 Ⅲ p 17.2 ( 4.6) ( 36.4) (-5.7) (-46.9) (-.5) ( 19.7) , ( 7.5) (-33.5) , (.6) ( 19.5) ( 2.) ( 44.3) , ( 7.4) (-12.5) , (-7.3) ( 4.4) ( 4.9) (-22.1) , ( 3.7) ( -4.) , (.2) ( 63.1) ,128 8 p 23.4 ( 3.2) ( 8.9) p 9.5 (-4.6) (-32.2) ,862 1 p 17.3 (-.8) ( 24.6) ,991 주 : 1) 21 년불변가격. 2) p 는잠정치. 3) 전기대비증감. 4) ( ) 는계절조정전기대비증가율. 자료 : 통계청; 국토교통부. Note: 1) At 21 Constant Prices. 2) p is preliminary. 3) Month-on-month number changes. 4) Figures in parentheses indicate percentage changes from the previous period (S.A.). Source: Statistics Korea; Ministry of Land Infrastructure and Transport. 43