ETF Sector Asia Pacific ETF Research 19 June 2013 ETF Weekly Asia Pacific 채권시장안정되며증시변동성축소전망 US Housing rebounding below 4% mortgage rates

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ETF Sector Asia Pacific ETF Research 19 June 2013 ETF Weekly Asia Pacific 채권시장안정되며증시변동성축소전망 US Housing rebounding below 4 mortgage rates 195 185 175 165 155 145 135 125 115 105 Fed purchases to keep

recovery when mortgage rates below 4-50,000 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 2.00 1.80 1.60 1.40 1.20 1.00 0.80 0.

kim@miraeasset.com 7.5 7.0 6.5 6.0 5.5 5.0 4.5 4.0 3.5 3.0 + 27 basis points since 4Q13 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 일본은행권의일본국채매도세와버냉키의장의양적완화규모축소암시로채권시장변동성이확대되었으나향후안정될것으로전망.

1 ETF Sector Asia Pacific ETF Research 19 June 2013 ETF Weekly Asia Pacific 채권시장안정되며증시변동성축소전망 US Housing rebounding below 4 mortgage rates Fed purchases to keep mortgage rate below 4 200, , ,000 50,000 0 (Index) Slow rise of JGB yields best for Japanese banks 김예남, Analyst S&P Case Schiller Housing Price Index 30 Year Mortgage Rates Housing recovery when mortgage rates below 4-50,000 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan (US$m) MBS Monthly Purchases 5-30Y Monthly Treasury Purchases Mortgage rates 30Y 10Y JGB Yields at close of 4Q Jun-08 Jun-09 Jun-10 Jun-11 Jun raymond.kim@miraeasset.com basis points since 4Q 일본은행권의일본국채매도세와버냉키의장의양적완화규모축소암시로채권시장변동성이확대되었으나향후안정될것으로전망. 20 일개최되는미연준 FOMC 회의와곧다가오는일본의참의원선거효과로채권시장은안정될것이며이로인해주변국증시변동성은축소될것으로판단. 지난주아시아주요증시는대부분하락하였으며, 특히 Shanghai Stock Exchange(SSE) 가부정적인경제지표발표로 4.9 급락함. BOJ 는 NIKKEI 225 가 6 월 3-14 일사이 6.4 하락하자 7.15 억달러상당의 ETF 를지난 2 주간매입함. 한국증시는지난주 1.8 하락하는데그쳤는데, 이는엔화강세에힘입어인버스 ETF 에서레버리지 ETF 로자금순환이이루어졌기때문임. 일본은행권의일본국채보유분이 42 에이르러 Tier 1 자본감소가능 2013 년 3 월말이후일본국채금리가 27bps 상승하여일본은행들의 Tier 1 자본이 2-5 감소할것으로예상. 미국채의경우투자자들 ( 각국중앙은행들 ) 이시가평가 (Mark-to-Market) 방식을취하지않는반면일본국채는일본은행권의보유량이많아금리상승시시가평가에따른손실이발생함 년 6 월말시가평가손실로일본은행들의 Tier 1 자본감소가전망되는가운데, 구로다 BOJ 총재의불분명한정책방향성으로일본은행들이총재취임후첫 6 주동안일본국채를대량매도한것으로판단됨. BOJ 가상충되는정책 ( 물가상승목표치인상 vs. 금리하락유도 ) 을제시하며혼선을빚자 BOJ 와일본은행권양측은결국대화로타협점을찾기로하였으며이에따라일본국채금리는향후안정될것으로보임. 향후인플레이션이발생할경우국채금리상승은불가피해보이지만, 일본은행권은금리급등보다는 BOJ 의현재국채매입계획에따른점진적인금리상승을더욱선호할것임. 버냉키의장은주택시장이금리상승으로둔화될경우모기지금리를인하할것임미국의모기지금리는 10 년만기미국채금리에연동됨. 최근미국경제의회복을이끈가장큰원동력은 2012 년 1 분기바닥을통과하며반등에성공한주택시장임. 주택시장이회복한시점은 30 년만기모기지금리가처음으로 4 이하로하락한시점과맞물림. 지난 5 월미주택가격은전년대비 상승하였으며주택건설업체신뢰지수 (Homebuilder s Sentiment) 또한 7 개월만에최고치에달함. 그러나과거경험에의하면모기지금리가 4 이상으로상승할경우주택수요가다소둔화되는경향이있어 5 월수치에대해신중한입장임. 미연준은실업률목표치 6.5 를달성할때까지모기지금리가 를상회하도록허용하지않을것임. 따라서 150bps 의스프레드를고려할때 10 년만기미국채금리는 이하에서유지될전망. 아베의구조조정은 7 월선거이후에구체화될전망아베노믹스의세가지화살중가장중요한구조조정은 7 월선거이후구체화될전망임. 현재아베총리가이끄는자민당이참의원선거에서압승할것으로전망되고있어선거를의식한아베총리가논란이될수있는구조조정정책을내놓지않을것으로판단됨. 선거이후새로임명된개혁성향의참의원들이 9 월중노동시장및농업구조조정안을제시할가능성이높음. 그러나구조조정계획의핵심이노동시장의개편에있기때문에이러한구조조정안이통과되기는쉽지않을것으로보임. See the last page of this report for important disclosures

2 ETF 자금흐름에서나타나듯 KOSPI 에긍정적모멘텀 지난주 KOSPI 인버스 ETF 상품에서 1.35 억달러의자금이유출된반면레버리지 KOSPI ETF 상품에는 4.4 억달러의자금이유입됨. 엔화강세와아베정부의구조조정지연은한국증시에긍정적모멘텀을제공할전망. 부정적데이터발표로중국의경제개혁모멘텀부각지난 5 월강세를보인중국증시가중국경제의둔화지속으로 6 월들어힘을잃은모습. 지난 2 주간홍콩에상장된중국 ETF 에서 1.76 억달러의자금이유출됨. 또한중국증시에상장된중국배당형 ETF 상품들이높은거래대금을기록함. 지난주발표된주요수치중중국경제에부정적신호를나타낸데이터를살펴보면 PPI 가전년대비 2.9 하락하였고, 신규대출성장률이시장컨센서스를하회하였으며 5 월수출이부진한것으로나타남. 중국의주택가격은 5 월에전년대비 6 상승하였으며이는주택시장과열을억제하려는중국정부가금리를인하하는데큰어려움이있을것이라는점을암시. 실적이가장좋은 ETF 의수익률은연초대비 428 Simplex JASDAQ Top 20 Exchange (1551 JP) ETF 는연초대비수익률이현재 428 임. 이중비중이가장큰겅호온라인엔터테인먼트가연초대비 1,328 급등함. 동사는일본최대의모바일게임업체로다운로드건수가일본인구대비 10 이상임. 2 2

3 Figure 1 US housing rebounds when 30 year mortgage rates fall below S&P Case Schiller Housing Price Index 30 Year Mortgage Rates (Index) Housing recovery when mortgage rates below Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan 자료 : Factset, 미래에셋증권리서치센터 Figure 2 Weekly Fed purchases of MBS and treasuries crucial at keeping 30Y mortgage rates below 4 200,000 (US$m) MBS Monthly Purchases 5-30Y Monthly Treasury Purchases Mortgage rates 30Y , , , ,000 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 0 자료 : Factset, 미래에셋증권리서치센터 3 3

4 Figure 3 BOJ has been soothing fears of large write downs of JGB holdings by Japanese banks if interest rates spike quickly basis points since 4Q Y JGB Yields Jun-08 Jun-09 Jun-10 Jun-11 Jun at close of 4Q13 자료 : Factset, 미래에셋증권리서치센터 4 4

5 Table of contents Asia Market ETF Update 1 Asia Regional Performance 6 ETF Fund Flow Breakdown 7 ETF turnover analysis 9 Asia Pacific ETF Market 11 Efficiency Analysis KOSPI 200 Leverage/Inverse ETFs 14 Rolling 3 Month Betas 15 Returns Comparison 16 Outperformance/Underperformance vs Benchmark

6 Asia Regional Performance Figure 4 Latest week return as of 14 June 2013 Figure 5 1M return as of 14 June 2013 Australia SE New Zealand Singapore FTSE Malaysia India Sensex FTSE Malaysia New Zealand Korea KOSPI Taiwan SE Shanghai SE Nikkei -1.5 India Sensex -5.5 Korea KOSPI -1.8 Jakarta SE -7.5 Taiwan SE -2.0 Australia SE -7.5 Jakarta SE -2.1 Singapore -8.3 Thailand -3.4 Hang Seng -9.2 Hang Seng Shanghai SE Thailand Nikkei Figure6 YTD return as of 14 June 2013 Nikkei 22.0 Jakarta SE 10.3 New Zealand 8.7 Thailand 5.3 FTSE Malaysia 4.3 Taiwan SE 3.1 Australia SE 3.1 Singapore -0.2 India Sensex -1.3 Shanghai SE -4.7 Korea KOSPI -5.4 Hang Seng

7 ETF fund flow breakdown (1 June 14 June) Figure 7 Weekly fund flow breakdown by country and type Fund flow breakdown (US$ 1,000) Commod & Deriv de Inverse / Leverage Dividends Foreign Large Cap Australia 4, China Hong Kong , , India Indonesia Japan -4, , , , Korea , , , Malaysia New Zealand Singapore , Taiwan Thailand Total (US$m) , , , , Figure 8 Weekly fund flow breakdown by country and type Fund flow breakdown (US$ 1,000) Growth Sector Specialty Fixed Incom e A bsolute Sum Australia , , ,979 China Hong Kong 114, ,044 India -7, ,815 Indonesia , ,290 Japan , ,209 Korea -8, , , , ,650 Malaysia New Zealand Singapore , ,398 Taiwan 5, , ,573 Thailand ,593 Total (US$m) 103, , , , ,371,

8 Figure 9 Monthly (May) rankings of ETF inflow Ticker Name (US$) Inflows 1320 JP Daiwa ETF - Nikkei ,324, KS Samsung KODEX Leverage ETF Equ 423,042, JP NEXT FUNDS Nikkei 225 Leverage 139,565, JP Nomura ETF - Nikkei 225 Exchan 123,243, HK Hang Seng Investment Index Fun 114,249, HK Tracker Fund of Hong Kong 107,273, KS Woori KOSEF 200 ETF 75,839, JP Simplex TOPIX Bull 2x ETF 54,227, KS Samsung KODEX KRW Cash ETF 46,797, HK Hang Seng Investment Index Fun 24,219,875 RDV AU Russell High Dividend Australi 23,071, JP Nomura NEXT FUNDS TOPIX-17 Rea 20,584, KS Mirae Asset TIGER Leverage ETF 19,061, JP Nikko Exchange Traded Index Fu 14,005, KS Samsung KODEX Samsung Group ET 13,623, JP NEXT FUNDS Nomura Japan 9,801, KS Hanwha Arirang 200 ETF - Equit 8,796, JP NEXT FUNDS REIT Index ETF 5,584, KS Mirae Asset TIGER Semicon ETF 5,348, JP Simplex Nikkei225 Bull 2x ETF 5,171,942 USD AU BetaShares US Dollar ETF 3,970,652 Figure 10 Monthly (May) rankings of ETF outflow Ticker Name (US$) Outflows 1306 JP Nomura TOPIX Exchange Traded F -180,074, KS SAMSUNG KODEX Inverse ETF -131,072, HK CSOP FTSE China A50 ETF CNY RQ -99,527, KS Samsung Kodex 200 Exchange Tra -86,592, JP MAXIS Nikkei 225 ETF -68,561, JP Nikko Exchange Traded Index Fu -67,564, KS Mirae Asset Tiger Money Market -40,419, KS Kyobo AXA Power K100 ETF - Equ -31,731, KS KINDEX200 ETF -23,084, KS Woori KOSEF Enhanced Cash ETF -17,981, HK BOCI-Prudential - W.I.S.E. - C -16,091, HK ChinaAMC ETF Series - ChinaAMC -15,137, HK E Fund CSI 100 A-Share ETF RQF -14,011, KS SAMSUNG KODEX MSCI KOREA ETF -10,745, HK ishares FTSE A50 China Index E -10,210, JP Nomura TOPIX Banks Exchange Tr -8,522, KS KB KStar KOSPI 200 ETF -7,615, KS Mirae Asset Tiger Automobiles -6,775, KS Mirae Asset TIGER Financials E -6,121, JP Simplex TOPIX Bear -1x ETF -5,705,913 MOST100 IN Motilal Oswal MOSt Shares M100-5,410,

9 ETF turnover analysis (1 June 14 June) Figure 11 Total weekly turnover ETFs by country Current week Previous week Difference Turnover (US$m) Share Turnover (US$m) Share Turnover (US$m) Change Australia China Hong Kong India Indonesia Japan , Korea Malaysia New Zealand Singapore Taiwan Thailand , , Figure 12 Total weekly turnover ranking by country Japan Korea China Hong Kong Taiwan Australia India Singapore Thailand New Zealand Indonesia Malaysia $m ,000 1,

10 Figure 13 ETF turnover breakdown by country ($1000s) ETF turnover breakdown by country (US$ 1,000) Commod & Deriv de Inverse / Leverage Dividends Foreign Large Cap Australia 4, , China , Hong Kong , , India 4, Indonesia Japan 40, , , , Korea 1, , , , Malaysia New Zealand Singapore , , Taiwan , , Thailand Total (US$m) 50, , , , ,002, Figure 14 ETF turnover breakdown by country ($1000s) ETF turnover breakdown by country (US$ 1,000) Growth Sector Spe cia lty Fixed Incom e Sum Australia 13, , , , ,761 China 32, , , , ,090 Hong Kong 44, ,765 India , ,861 Indonesia Japan 12, , , ,696 Korea 1, , , ,037 Malaysia New Zealand Singapore , ,189 Taiwan 2, , ,312 Thailand ,129 Total (US$m) 108, , , , ,105,

11 Asia Pacific ETF Market Figure 15 ETFs by country ETF m arke t by country Num b e r o f ETFs A UM Total (US$m ) Regiona l Share Australia 58 5, China 65 33, Hong Kong 71 29, India 37 1, Indonesia Japan , Korea , Malay sia New Zealand Singapore 12 5, Taiwan 19 4, Thailand Total , Figure 16 Total AUM ($US m) in ETF assets by country Figure 17 Total ETF products by country Japan China Hong Kong Korea Singapore Australia Taiwan India Malaysia New Zealand Thailand Indonesia $m Korea Japan Hong Kong China Australia India Taiwan Thailand Singapore Indonesia New Zealand Indonesia 0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,

12 Figure 18 ETF asset type breakdown by country AUM ($US m) ETF breakdown by country (AUM US$m) Comm od & Deriv Index Inverse / Leverage Dividends Foreign Large Cap Australia China , , Hong Kong , , India 1, Indonesia Japan , , Korea , , Malaysia New Zealand Singapore Taiwan , , Thailand Total (US$m) 3, , , , , Figure 19 Breakdown of ETF asset type by country AUM ($US m) ETF breakdown by country (AUM US$m ) Growth Sector Specialty Fixed Incom e Sum Australia 3, ,269.5 China 3, , , ,439.4 Hong Kong 2, ,360.3 India ,837.8 Indonesia Japan 9, , ,120.4 Korea , , ,292.5 Malaysia New Zealand Singapore , ,296.7 Taiwan ,206.1 Thailand Total (US$m) 19, , , , ,

13 Figure 20 Breakdown of ETF asset type by country AUM Country ETF market breakdown Commod & Deriv Index Inverse / Leverage Dividends Large Cap Foreign Growth Sector Specialty Fixed Income Australia China Hong Kong India Indonesia Japan Korea Malaysia New Zealand Singapore Taiwan Thailand

14 Efficiency Analysis KOSPI 200 Leverage/Inverse ETFs Figure 21 KOSPI 200 leverage/inverse ETFs Inverse/leveraged KOSPI 200 based ETFs Inception date Current NAV (US$) NAV Tracking Error Expense Ratio Inverse KODEX Inverse KINDEX Inverse KOSEF Inverse TIGER200 Inverse Average Leveraged KODEX Leverage Kstar Leverage TIGER200 Leverage KINDEX Leverage Average Figure 22 Trailing 3M betas show that the most efficient ETF varies by period Inverse/leveraged Betas (Trailing 3m) KOSPI 200 based ETFs Current -1w -2w -1m -3m Inverse KODEX Inverse KINDEX Inverse KOSEF Inverse TIGER200 Inverse Average inverse beta Leveraged KODEX Leverage Kstar Leverage TIGER200 Leverage KINDEX Leverage Average leverage beta

15 Figure 23 Rolling 3-month betas of inverse ETFs track the -1 beta benchmark the most closely /5/11 5/5/12 11/5/12 5/5/13 SAMSUNG KODEX Inverse ETF Korea Investment KINDEX Invers Woori KOSEF Inv erse ETF - Equi Mirae Asset TIGER Inverse ETF SAMSUNG KODEX Inverse ETF Korea Investment KINDEX Invers Figure 24 Rolling 3-month betas show that leveraged ETFs consistently underperform their +2 beta benchmark /24/12 9/24/12 3/24/13 Samsung KODEX Leverage ETF Equ Mirae Asset TIGER Leverage ETF KB KStar Leverage Securities E Korea Investment KINDEX Levera 15 15

16 Figure 25 Returns of leveraged/inverse ETFs Inverse/Leveraged Returns 1W Return 1M Return YTD 1YR KOSPI 200 based ETFs Code Return Return Inverse KODEX Inverse A KINDEX Inverse A KOSEF Inverse A TIGER200 Inverse A Average Leveraged KODEX Leverage A Kstar Leverage A TIGER200 Leverage A KINDEX Leverage A Average Figure 26 Outperformance and underperformance of ETFs against their KOSPI 200 benchmark Inverse/Leveraged + Overperformance / - Underperformance KOSPI 200 based ETFs Code 1W Return 1M Return YTD Return 1YR Return Inverse KODEX Inverse A KINDEX Inverse A KOSEF Inverse A TIGER200 Inverse A Average KOSPI Leveraged KODEX Leverage A Kstar Leverage A TIGER200 Leverage A KINDEX Leverage A Average

Recommendations 종목별투자의견 (12 개월기준 ) Buy : 현주가대비목표주가 +10 초과 Hold : 현주가대비목표주가 ±10 이내 Reduce : 현주가대비목표주가 10 초과단, 업종투자의견에의한 ±10 내의조정치감안가능 업종별투자의견 Overweight : 현업종지수대비 +10 초과 Neutral : 현업종지수대비 ±10 이내

17 Recommendations 종목별투자의견 (12 개월기준 ) Buy : 현주가대비목표주가 +10 초과 Hold : 현주가대비목표주가 ±10 이내 Reduce : 현주가대비목표주가 10 초과단, 업종투자의견에의한 ±10 내의조정치감안가능 업종별투자의견 Overweight : 현업종지수대비 +10 초과 Neutral : 현업종지수대비 ±10 이내 Underweight : 현업종지수대비 10 초과 Compliance Notice 본자료는투자자의증권투자를돕기위하여당사고객에한하여배포되는자료로서어떠한경우에도복사되거나대여될수없습니다. 본조사자료에수록된내용은당사리서치센터가신뢰할만한자료및정보로부터얻어진것이나당사는그정확성이나완전성을보장할수없습니다. 따라서, 어떠한경우에도본자료는고객의증권투자의결과에대한법적책임소재에대한증빙자료로사용될수없습니다. 동자료는기관투자가또는제 3 자에게사전제공한사실이없습니다. 자료에게재된내용들은본인의의견을정확하게반영하고있으며, 외부의부당한압력이나간섭없이작성되었음을확인함. 작성자 : 김예남 담당자보유주식수종목담당자종류수량취득가취득일 1 이상보유여부 유가증권종목 계열사담당자 자사주종류 REMARK: Korean analyst is only responsible for Korean securities and relevant sectors only

, Fixed Income Analyst, , (pt, 212 초 =1) 17 US HY BofA merrill lynch bond index Europe HY Asian dollar HY Asia

, Fixed Income Analyst, , (pt, 212 초 =1) 17 US HY BofA merrill lynch bond index Europe HY Asian dollar HY Asia Comment Fixed Income Strategy 2 January 216 1 1 () (1) (1) (2) ROE: US HY Non-Energy Energy 2 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 214 21 안정성수익성현금흐름 US HY Sector Net Interest ROE FCF debt/ebitda coverage ratio Energy