Microsoft Word Refining Petchem Weekly_KOR.docx

Korea Refining and Petrochemical Tracker 6 May, 213 권영배 CFA, Analyst 3774-612 yb.kwon@miraeasset.com 홍우태 3774-1478 wthong@miraeasset.com [ 요약 ] 싱가포르복합정제마진 US$5.1/bbl (+US$1/bbl WoW), 두바이원유대비 5.2% 브렌트, 두바이유가각각 US$2.3/bbl, US$1.2/bbl 하락, 브렌트-두바이스프레드 -US$.3/bbl (-US$1/bbl WoW) NCC 마진 US$24/ 톤 WoW 하락한 US$367/ 톤, 납사가격 US$28/ 톤상승한 US$856/ 톤수준 PE- 납사스프레드 US$494/ 톤 (-US$29/ 톤 WoW), PP- 납사스프레드 US$59/ 톤 (-US$13/ 톤 WoW) 석유화학업평균 1.1% 하락 (vs. KOSPI +1.1%, vs. 정유업 -2%), 금호석유 +1.8% 정유 : 싱가포르복합정제마진 US$5.1/bbl, 전주대비 US$1/bbl 상승 싱가포르복합정제마진 US$5.1/bbl로 (5월 1일기준 ) 전주대비 US$1/bbl 상승. 브렌트유가 US$2.3/bbl 하락한 US$98.5/bbl, 두바이유가 US$1.2/bbl 하락한 US$98.9/bbl 기록. 브렌트-두바이스프레드는 -US$.3/bbl (-US$1/bbl WoW). 원유 / 가스가격비 21배수준. 아시아가솔린, 디젤, 등유크랙각각 US$15.3/bbl (+US$5./bbl WoW). US$16.4/bbl (+US$2.5/bbl WoW), US$15.9/bbl (+US$3.1/bbl) 기록. 유럽과아시아간정제마진차이는 US$4.7/bbl 내린 US$3.4/bbl. 미국과아시아간가솔린스프레드는 US$8.1/bbl 내린 US$7.4/bbl. 윤활기유가격변함없음. 석유화학 : PE- 납사스프레드평균 US$494/ 톤 (-US$29/ 톤 ), PP- 납사스프레드평균 US$59/ 톤 (-US$13/ 톤 ) 납사가격 US$28/ 톤상승한 US$856/ 톤. NCC마진은전주대비 US$24/ 톤축소된 US$367/ 톤기록 ( 납사대비 43%). PE-납사스프레드 US$29/ 톤하락한 US$494/ 톤. PP-납사스프레드는 US$13/ 톤하락한 US$59/ 톤. SBR가격 US$2,1으로변함없고 SBR-mix(BD&SM) 스프레드는 US$16/ 톤축소된 US$597/ 톤기록. 부타디엔, SM 가격각각 US$1,425/ 톤 (+US$25 WoW), US$1,625/ 톤 (+US$3/ 톤 WoW). MEG-납사스프레드는 US$35 내린 US$132/ 톤. PX-납사스프레드 US$574/ 톤 (-US$23/ 톤 ). Valuation: 정유 P/B (12m Fwd) 1. 배, 석유화학 P/B (12m Fwd) 1.3 배 정유주주가전주대비평균 2% 하락, 석유화학주가평균 1.1% 하락 (vs. KOSPI 1.1% 상승 ). 아시아의석유화학주중, PTT E&P(PTTEP TB), Oil Search (OSH AU), PTT (PTT TB) 의주가상승컸으며, 롯데케미칼 (1117 KS), Woodside (WPL AU), 한화케미칼 (983 KS) 은주가부진했음. 현재당사커버리지정유주와석유화학주는각각 P/B 1.배, 1.3배에거래중. [ 주요뉴스 ] Asian butadiene average price sinks 18% on month in April on weak demand Australian woodside inks deal with shell to study FLNG technology for Browse project Asia olefins at crossroads, market divided over outlook for ethylene and propylene YNCC is operating at 85% of utilization rate (Source: Platts, Bloomberg, ICIS, Local press) Stocks under coverage Company Rating Price Target price S-Oil (195 KS) BUY 86,9 12, SK 이노베이션 (9677 KS) BUY 145,5 19, 롯데케미칼 (1117 KS) BUY 16, 22, 금호석유화학 (1178 KS) BUY 95, 125, GS (7893 KS) BUY 53,7 85, LG 화학 (5191 KS) BUY 257, 3, 한화케미칼 (983 KS) HOLD 16,15 17, 휴켐스 (6926 KS) BUY 23,25 3, Note: Prices are in KRW, Price close as of 3 May 213 Charts of the week Singapore gross refining margin 14 12 1 8 6 4 2 Jan12 Apr12 Jul12 Oct12 Jan13 Apr13 Source: Datastream, Mirae Asset Research PE-naphtha spreads 6 55 5 45 4 35 3 25 2 Jan12 Apr12 Jul12 Oct12 Jan13 Apr13 HDPE-naphtha LDPE-naphtha LLDPE-naphtha Source: Datastream, Mirae Asset Research See the last page of this report for important disclosures 1

Weekly key table Table 1 Key refining and petrochemical price trend Current price 1w ago 1m ago 3m ago 1w chg. 1m chg. 3m chg. 1Q13 4Q12 3Q12 2Q12 213F 212 211 Crude oil Brent 98.5 1.8 11.9 116.9 (2.3) (12.3) (18.4) 112.8 11.4 11.1 19.1 115. 112. 111.6 Dubai 98.9 1.1 17.3 11.8 (1.2) (8.4) (11.9) 18.2 17.5 16.3 16.5 111. 19.1 16.2 Oil products Gasoline 114.2 11.4 124.2 13.3 3.8 (1.1) (16.2) 126.5 12.8 122.3 12.8 124. 123.6 119.8 Diesel 115.3 114. 121.6 13.7 1.3 (6.3) (15.4) 127.7 126.8 127.5 124.2 128. 128.1 126.3 Jet/Kero 114.8 113. 121.6 132. 1.8 (6.8) (17.2) 128.4 126.7 126.4 122.6 128. 126.8 125.6 Fuel oil 89.1 89.9 97.4 1.4 (.8) (8.3) (11.3) 97. 94.3 97.3 98.2 12. 99.4 95.7 Naphtha 93.8 9.7 99.8 18.7 3.1 (6.) (14.9) 16.7 13.9 99.8 98. 14.5 13.6 12.4 Singapore GRM 5.1 4.1 6.5 9.1 1. (1.4) (4.) 8.5 6.5 9.1 6.7 7. 7.5 8.2 Petrochemicals (US$/MT) Olefins and BTX Ethylene 1,135 1,145 1,22 1,335 (1) (85) (2) 1,34 1,234 1,136 1,149 1,254 1,182 1,172 Propylene 1,23 1,23 1,27 1,29 (4) (6) 1,39 1,272 1,295 1,327 1,34 1,36 1,416 Butadiene 1,425 1,4 1,525 1,88 25 (1) (455) 1,856 1,73 2,142 2,533 2,154 2,433 2,921 Benzene 1,38 1,29 1,265 1,423 18 43 (115) 1,39 1,356 1,168 1,122 1,354 1,27 1,11 Toluene 1,138 1,12 1,12 1,315 18 18 (178) 1,272 1,273 1,117 1,126 1,174 1,178 1,76 Xylene 1,195 1,175 1,18 1,373 2 15 (178) 1,329 1,324 1,212 1,181 1,34 1,264 1,24 Key downstream products LDPE 1,345 1,335 1,415 1,42 1 (7) (75) 1,435 1,341 1,266 1,323 1,424 1,321 1,568 LLDPE 1,33 1,345 1,415 1,445 (15) (85) (115) 1,451 1,356 1,283 1,292 1,44 1,299 1,312 HDPE 1,375 1,375 1,43 1,46 (55) (85) 1,462 1,36 1,317 1,348 1,434 1,346 1,344 MEG 988 995 1,15 1,173 (8) (28) (185) 1,129 1,95 994 945 1,29 1,29 1,18 PP 1,365 1,35 1,43 1,425 15 (65) (6) 1,446 1,414 1,367 1,382 1,44 1,383 1,512 PVC 96 97 1,3 1,1 (1) (7) (5) 1,23 956 932 994 96 968 1,63 SM 1,625 1,623 1,625 1,7 3 (75) 1,687 1,586 1,411 1,384 1,589 1,453 1,392 ABS 1,845 1,88 1,96 2,45 (35) (115) (2) 2,23 1,922 1,927 1,954 1,98 1,97 2,135 SBR 2,1 2,1 2,3 2,375 (2) (275) 2,396 2,436 2,76 3,73 2,454 2,898 3,713 PX 1,43 1,425 1,455 1,655 5 (25) (225) 1,62 1,549 1,422 1,42 1,534 1,494 1,538 TPA 1,28 1,3 1,9 1,185 (3) (63) (158) 1,17 1,114 1,23 1,8 1,9 1,99 1,266 PET 1,355 1,375 1,445 1,53 (2) (9) (175) 1,521 1,48 1,274 1,363 1,358 1,383 1,613 Base oil Group II 1,65 1,65 1,65 1,2 45 1,27 1,39 1,55 1,221-1,129 1,349 Group III 1,25 1,25 1,25 1,1 15 1,15 1,14 1,115 1,355-1,195 1,362 Source: Datastream, Cischem, Mirae Asset Research 2

Part 1. Refining: Asia refining margin trend 싱가포르복합정제마진 : US$5.1/bbl (+US$1./bbl WoW) Figure 1 Singapore gross refining margin (GRM) Figure 2 Dubai crack (gasoline:diesel = 1:1, vs. Dubai) 18 3 16 14 12 1 8 6 4 2 25 2 15 1 5 Source: Datastream, Mirae Asset Research Source: Datastream, Mirae Asset Research 가솔린크랙 : US$15.3/bbl (+US$5./bbl WoW) 디젤크랙 : US$16.4/bbl (+US$2.5/bbl WoW) Figure 3 Gasoline, diesel crack (vs. Dubai) Figure 4 Kerosene, naphtha, LPG, B-C crack (vs. Dubai) 3 3 25 2 1 2 15 (1) 1 (2) (3) 5 (4) (5) Gasoline crack Diesel crack Kerosene crack Naphtha crack LPG crack B-C crack Source: Datastream, Mirae Asset Research Source: Datastream, Mirae Asset Research 3

Part 1. Refining: Global refining margin trend 유럽 (ARA) 과아시아정제마진 (6:3:2:1) 차이 : US$3.4/bbl (-US$4.7/bbl WoW) Figure 5 Global refining margin (gasoline:diesel = 1:1) Figure 6 Global refining margin (gasoline:diesel:kerosene = 2:3:1) 6 6 미국 (USGC) 과아시아정제마진차이 : US$1./bbl (-US$6.6/bbl WoW) 5 4 3 2 1 Asia (vs Dubai) USGC (vs WTI) ARA (vs Brent) 5 4 3 2 1 Asia (vs Dubai) USGC (vs WTI) ARA (vs Brent) Source: Datastream, Mirae Asset Research Source: Datastream, Mirae Asset Research 미국과유럽간가솔린크랙차이 : US$5.8/bbl (-US$2.4/bbl WoW) Figure 7 Global gasoline crack Figure 8 Global diesel crack 7 5 6 45 4 5 35 4 3 3 25 2 2 15 1 1 5 US ARA US ARA Source: Datastream, Mirae Asset Research Source: Datastream, Mirae Asset Research 4

Part 1. Refining: Petroleum product price trend 미국과아시아의가솔린가격스프레드 : US$7.4/bbl (-US$8.1/bbl WoW) Figure 9 Global gasoline and diesel spread (USGC vs. Asia) Figure 1 Global gasoline price trend 4 18 3 17 16 2 15 1 14 13 12 (1) 11 1 (2) 9 Gasoline Diesel Asia US Europe Source: Datastream, Mirae Asset Research Source: Datastream, Mirae Asset Research 아시아디젤가격 : US$115.3/bbl (+US$1.3/bbl WoW) 아시아등유가격 : US$114.9/bbl (+US$2.1/bbl WoW) Figure 11 Global diesel price trend Figure 12 Global kerosene price trend 15 16 145 14 15 135 14 13 125 13 12 115 12 11 11 15 1 1 Asia US Europe Asia US Europe Source: Datastream, Mirae Asset Research Source: Datastream, Mirae Asset Research 5

Part 1. Refining: Petroleum stock trend 미국가솔린재고증가율 : +3.% YoY Figure 13 US gasoline stock Figure 14 US gasoline stock growth (YoY) (bbl m) 25 24 23 5-year high 22 21 2 19 18 5-year low 17 Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov 5-year average 212 213 (%) 15 1 5-5 -1-15 Source: EIA, Mirae Asset Research Source: EIA, Mirae Asset Research 미국디젤재고증가율 : -7.% YoY Figure 15 US diesel stock Figure 16 US diesel stock growth (YoY) (bbl m) (%) 18 2 17 15 16 5-year high 1 15 5 14-5 13-1 12-15 11 5-year low -2 1-25 Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov -3 5-year average 212 213 Source: EIA, Mirae Asset Research Source: EIA, Mirae Asset Research 6

Part 1. Refining: Base oil pricing and spreads 베이스오일가격 Group I: US$1,15/tonne (unchanged WoW) Group II: US$1,65/tonne (unchanged WoW) Group III: US$1,25/tonne (unchanged WoW) Group I, II, III 스프레드 Group I: US$4/tonne (-US$13/tonne WoW) Group II: US$45/tonne (-US$13/tonne WoW) Group III: US$41/tonne (-US$13/tonne WoW) Figure 17 Base oil price trend Figure 18 Spread: Base oil (vs. 3.5% HSFO) 1,6 1,5 1,4 1,3 1,2 1,1 1, 9 8 7 6 Group I Group II Group III 1, 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 Group I Group II Group III Source: Datastream, ICIS, Mirae Asset Research Source: Datastream, ICIS, Mirae Asset Research Figure 19 Group II vs. Dubai Figure 2 Group III vs. Dubai 1,6 1,5 1,4 1,3 1,2 1,1 1, 9 8 13 12 11 1 9 8 7 1,6 13 1,5 12 1,4 1,3 11 1,2 1 1,1 9 1, 9 8 8 7 Jan12 Apr12 Jul12 Oct12 Jan13 Apr13 Group II (LHS) Dubai (RHS) Group III (LHS) Dubai (RHS) Source: Datastream, ICIS, Mirae Asset Research Source: Datastream, ICIS, Mirae Asset Research 7

Part 1. Refining: Crude oil price trend 브렌트 - 두바이스프레드 : -US$.3/bbl (-US$1./bbl WoW) Figure 21 Crude oil price (Brent, Dubai, WTI) Figure 22 Spreads (Brent-Dubai, Brent-WTI) 13 3 12 11 1 9 8 7 Jan11 Apr11 Jul11 Oct11 Jan12 Apr12 Jul12 Oct12 Jan13 Apr13 25 2 15 1 5 (5) Brent Dubai WTI Brent-Dubai Brent-WTI Source: Datastream, Mirae Asset Research Source: Datastream, Mirae Asset Research Figure 23 M2-Spot spread (Brent, Dubai, WTI) Figure 24 Future curve (Brent, WTI) 2 1 (1) (2) (3) Jan12 Apr12 Jul12 Oct12 Jan13 Apr13 (US$) 15 1 95 9 85 8 Apr13 Oct13 Apr14 Oct14 Apr15 Oct15 Apr16 Brent Dubai WTI Source: Datastream, Mirae Asset Research Source: Datastream, Mirae Asset Research Brent WTI 8

Part 1. Refining: Global crude oil trend Figure 25 US crude oil stock trend Figure 26 US crude oil stock growth (YoY) (bbl bn) 1,9 1,85 5-year high (%) 6 4 1,8 1,75 1,7 1,65 5-year low 1,6 Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov 5-year average 212 213 2-2 -4-6 Source: EIA, Mirae Asset Research Source: EIA, Mirae Asset Research Figure 27 Non-OPEC crude oil supply Figure 28 OPEC crude oil supply (m bbl/d) (m bbl/d) 55 39 54 54 53 53 38 37 36 52 52 51 51 35 34 33 5 29 21 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 32 29 21 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 Source: IEA, Mirae Asset Research Source: IEA, Mirae Asset Research 9

Part 1. Refining: Global crude oil supply / demand Figure 29 Global demand and supply of oil and gas (m barrels/day) 29 21 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 211 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 212 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 213 OECD DEMAND 46.3 46.9 47.1 45.3 46.9 46.7 46.5 46.3 45.6 45.9 46.5 46. 46. 44.8 45.8 46.3 45.7 Americas 23.7 24.1 24.2 23.8 24.2 24. 24.1 23.5 23.8 23.9 24.1 23.8 23.6 23.6 24. 24.1 23.8 Europe 14.7 14.7 14.3 14.2 14.7 14.1 14.3 13.7 13.8 13.8 13.9 13.8 13.4 13.3 13.8 13.8 13.6 Asia Oceania 8. 8.1 8.6 7.4 8. 8.6 8.1 9.1 8. 8.2 8.6 8.5 9. 7.9 8. 8.4 8.3 NON-OECD DEMAND 39.1 41.1 41.5 42.3 42.6 43. 42.4 42.8 43.4 44. 44.7 43.8 44.1 44.9 45.4 45.8 45. FSU 4. 4.2 4.2 4.4 4.6 4.6 4.4 4.5 4.5 4.7 4.7 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.8 4.9 4.7 Europe.7.7.7.7.7.7.7.7.7.7.7.7.7.7.7.7.7 China 7.9 8.8 9.3 9.3 9. 9.4 9.2 9.6 9.3 9.4 1.1 9.6 1. 9.8 9.9 1.3 1. Other Asia 1.3 1.9 11.1 11.1 1.8 11.2 11. 11.3 11.4 11.2 11.6 11.4 11.6 11.7 11.4 11.8 11.6 Latin America 5.7 6. 6.1 6.3 6.5 6.4 6.3 6.3 6.4 6.6 6.7 6.5 6.4 6.6 6.8 6.7 6.7 Middle East 7.1 7.3 6.9 7.4 7.8 7.3 7.4 7.1 7.7 8. 7.5 7.6 7.3 7.8 8.3 7.7 7.8 Africa 3.4 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.2 3.3 3.3 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.5 3.4 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.6 3.5 Total DEMAND 85.4 88. 88.7 87.6 89.4 89.7 88.9 89.1 89. 9. 91.2 89.8 9.1 89.6 91.3 92. 9.8 Global oil supply (m bopd) (m barrels/day) 29 21 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 211 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 212 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 213 OECD SUPPLY 18.8 18.9 18.9 18.6 18.6 19.6 18.9 19.9 19.7 19.4 2.4 19.8 2.5 2.3 2.3 2.9 2.5 Americas 13.6 14.1 14.3 14.3 14.5 15.3 14.6 15.6 15.5 15.7 16.4 15.8 16.6 16.5 16.7 17. 16.7 Europe 4.5 4.1 4. 3.7 3.5 3.7 3.8 3.8 3.6 3.1 3.3 3.5 3.4 3.2 3.1 3.3 3.2 Asia Oceania.6.7.6.6.6.6.6.5.5.6.6.6.5.5.6.6.5 Non-OECD SUPPLY 29. 29.8 3.2 29.8 29.8 29.7 29.9 29.8 29.2 29.3 29.7 29.5 29.7 29.6 29.4 29.7 29.6 FSU 13.3 13.5 13.6 13.6 13.5 13.6 13.6 13.7 13.6 13.6 13.8 13.7 13.8 13.6 13.4 13.7 13.6 Europe.1.1.1.1.1.1.1.1.1.1.1.1.1.1.1.1.1 China 3.8 4.1 4.2 4.2 4. 4. 4.1 4.2 4.1 4.2 4.3 4.2 4.2 4.3 4.2 4.2 4.2 Other Asia 3.6 3.7 3.7 3.5 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.4 3.5 Latin America 3.9 4.1 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.3 4.2 4.3 4.1 4.1 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.3 4.3 4.4 4.3 Middle East 1.7 1.7 1.8 1.7 1.7 1.5 1.6 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 Africa 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.4 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 OPEC SUPPLY 34. 34.6 35.7 35.1 35.6 36.2 35.7 37.4 37.8 37.8 37.3 37.6 Crude 29.1 29.2 29.9 29.4 29.9 3.3 29.9 31.3 31.7 31.4 3.9 31.4 NGLs 4.9 5.4 5.8 5.7 5.8 5.9 5.8 6. 6.1 6.3 6.3 6.2 6.3 6.4 6.6 6.6 6.5 Total SUPPLY 85.4 87.3 88.4 87.6 88.4 89.4 88.4 9.8 9.7 9.8 91.4 9.9 Source: IEA, Mirae Asset Research 1

Part 2. Petrochemical: Key olefin pricing and spreads NCC 마진 : US$367/tonne (-US$24/tonne WoW) Figure 3 NCC margin Figure 31 Ethylene, propylene, butadiene price trend 9 2, 5, 8 1,8 4,5 7 1,6 4, 6 1,4 3,5 5 3, 4 1,2 2,5 3 1, 2, 2 8 1,5 1 6 1, Ethylene (LHS) Propylene (LHS) Butadiene (RHS) Source: Datastream, Cischem, Mirae Asset Research Source: Datastream, Cischem, Mirae Asset Research 기초유분스프레드 Ethylene-Naphtha: US$279/tonne (-US$38/tonne WoW) Propylene-Naphtha: US$374/tonne (-US$28/tonne WoW) Butadiene-Naphtha: US$569/tonne (-US$3/tonne WoW) Figure 32 Spread: Ethylene, propylene, butadiene (vs. naphtha) Figure 33 Relative price: Propylene, butadiene (vs. ethylene) (x) 8 4, 4.5 7 3,5 4. 6 3, 3.5 5 2,5 3. 4 2, 2.5 3 1,5 2. 2 1, 1.5 1 5 1..5. Ethylene-Naphtha (LHS) Propylene-Naphtha (LHS) Butadiene-Naphtha (RHS) Propylene/Ethylene Butadiene/Ethylene Source: Datastream, Cischem, Mirae Asset Research Source: Datastream, Cischem, Mirae Asset Research 11

Part 2. Petrochemical: BTX pricing and spreads BTX 납사스프레드 Benzene: US$452/tonne (-US$1/tonne WoW) Toluene: US$282/tonne (-US$1/tonne WoW) Xylene: US$339/tonne (-US$8/tonne WoW) Figure 34 Benzene, toluene, xylene (MX) price trend Figure 35 Spread: Benzene, toluene, xylene (vs. naphtha) 1,6 6 1,5 1,4 5 1,3 4 1,2 1,1 3 1, 9 2 8 1 7 6 Benzene Toluene Xylene Benzene-Naphtha Toluene-Naphtha Xylene-Naphtha Source: Datastream, Cischem, Mirae Asset Research Source: Datastream, Cischem, Mirae Asset Research Figure 36 Relative price: BTX (vs. ethylene) Figure 37 Benzene-to-oil ratio (USGC/WTI, Asia/Dubai) (x) 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.1 1..9.8.7.6 Benzene/Ethylene Toluene/Ethylene Xylene/Ethylene (x) 2 18 16 14 12 1 8 6 Benzene USGC/WTI Benzene Asia/Dubai Source: Datastream, Cischem, Mirae Asset Research Source: Datastream, Cischem, Mirae Asset Research 12

Part 2. Petrochemical: PE/PP pricing and spreads 폴리에텔렌 - 납사스프레드 HDPE: US$519/tonne (-US$28/tonne WoW) LDPE: US$489/tonne (-US$18/tonne WoW) LLDPE: US$474/tonne (-US$43/tonne WoW) Figure 38 PE price trend Figure 39 Spread: PE (vs. ethylene) 1,8 7 1,7 6 1,6 5 1,5 4 1,4 3 1,3 2 1,2 1 1,1 1, HDPE LDPE LLDPE HDPE-Ethylene LDPE-Ethylene LLDPE-Ethylene Source: Datastream, Cischem, Mirae Asset Research Source: Datastream, Cischem, Mirae Asset Research 폴리프로필렌스프레드 (vs. 프로필렌 ): US$135/tonne (+US$15/tonne WoW) 프로필렌스프레드 (vs. 납사 ): US$374/tonne (-US$28/tonne WoW) Figure 4 PP price trend Figure 41 Spread: PP (vs. propylene) 1,7 7 65 1,6 6 1,5 55 5 1,4 45 1,3 4 35 1,2 3 25 1,1 2 1, Propylene-Naphtha PP-Propylene Source: Datastream, Cischem, Mirae Asset Research Source: Datastream, Cischem, Mirae Asset Research 13

Part 2. Petrochemical: ABS,PVC pricing and spreads ABS-mix 스프레드 : US$24/tonne (-US$3/tonne WoW) Figure 42 ABS price trend Figure 43 Spread: ABS (vs. mix) 2,4 6 2,3 2,2 4 2,1 2 2, 1,9 1,8 1,7 (2) 1,6 (4) 1,5 1,4 (6) Source: Datastream, Cischem, Mirae Asset Research Source: Datastream, Cischem, Mirae Asset Research PVC-VCM 스프레드 : US$17/tonne (-US$1/tonne WoW) Figure 44 PVC price trend Figure 45 Spread: PVC (vs. mix) 1,3 9 1,25 1,2 8 1,15 7 1,1 6 1,5 1, 5 95 4 9 85 3 8 VCM-Mix PVC-VCM Source: Datastream, Cischem, Mirae Asset Research Source: Datastream, Cischem, Mirae Asset Research 14

Part 2. Petrochemical: SBR, PET chain pricing and spreads SBR 가격 : US$2,1/tonne (unchanged WoW) SBR-mix (BD&SM) 스프레드 : US$597/tonne (-US$16/tonne WoW) Figure 46 SBR price trend Figure 47 Spread: SBR (vs. mix) 4,9 2,5 4,4 2, 3,9 3,4 2,9 2,4 1,9 1,4 Feb11 Aug11 Feb12 Aug12 Feb13 1,5 1, 5 Source: Datastream, Cischem, Mirae Asset Research Source: Datastream, Cischem, Mirae Asset Research 합성섬유-납사스프레드 MEG: US$132/tonne (-US$35/tonne WoW) TPA: US$172/tonne (-US$3/tonne WoW) PET: US$499/tonne (-US$48/tonne WoW) PX-납사스프레드 US$574/tonne (-US$23/tonne WoW) Figure 48 Synthetic fiber chain price trend: MEG, TPA, PET Figure 49 PX pricing and spread (vs. Naphtha) 2, 1,8 1,8 1,6 1,4 1,6 1,2 1,4 1, 1,2 8 6 1, 4 8 2 6 MEG TPA PET PX-Naphtha PX price Source: Datastream, Cischem, Mirae Asset Research Source: Datastream, Cischem, Mirae Asset Research 15

Part 2. Petrochemical: Key commodities Figure 5 Natural rubber vs. SBR Figure 51 Cotton vs. PET, MEG 5,5 5, 4,5 4, 3,5 3, 2,5 2, 1,5 1, 5, 4,5 4, 3,5 3, 2,5 2, 1,5 1, 5 Natural rubber SBR Cotton PET MEG Source: Datastream, ICIS, Mirae Asset Research Source: Datastream, Cischem, Mirae Asset Research 16

Part 3. Global valuation: Comparison table Figure 52 Oil & gas global peer valuation table (Local currency, x, %) Company Code Source: Bloomberg, Mirae Asset Research Current price Market cap (US$ m) EPS P/E P/B FY12A FY13E FY14E FY12A FY13E FY14E FY12A FY13E FY14E FY12A FY13E FY14E FY13E FY13E Exploration & production PETRO CHINA 857 HK 7.6 249,5.7.7.8 11.6 1.3 9.6 1.3 1.2 1.1 11.4 11.8 11.6 41.8 4.3 SINOPEC 386 HK 6.6 98,199.7.9.9 9.5 7.7 7.4 1.1 1..9 12.6 14. 13.5 55.7 4.6 PTT PTT TB 326. 31,47 38. 4.3 43. 8.6 8.1 7.6 1.4 1.3 1.2 17.8 17.7 16.7 75.1 4.2 PTT E&P PTTEP TB 152.5 2,421 16.1 16.4 17.2 9.5 9.3 8.9 1.9 1.7 1.5 22.3 18.9 17.7 35.2 4. RELIANCE IND RIL IN 87. 48,292 63.7 65.8 69.9 12.7 12.3 11.5 1.5 1.4 1.2 12.6 11.8 11.4 49.1 1.2 ONGC ONGC IN 324.5 51,446 31.2 29.7 34.5 1.4 1.9 9.4 2.1 1.8 1.6 21.3 17.2 17.8 11.7 3. CAIRN INDIA CAIR IN 33.8 1,754 43.1 6.5 53.5 7. 5. 5.7 1.2 1..9 18.5 21.5 17.6. 3.5 WOODSIDE WPL AU 37.5 3,94 2.6 2.4 2.7 14.6 15.5 13.7 2. 2. 2. 14.6 13.1 14.1 28.7 6. SANTOS STO AU 12.1 11,971.6.6.6 19.4 2.9 19.3 1.2 1.2 1.2 6.3 6. 6.3 39.5 2.6 OIL SEARCH OSH AU 7.9 1,632.1.1.3 67.3 65.1 3.8 3.3 3.2 2.9 5.2 4.9 9.9 89.3.5 Average 17.1 16.5 12.4 1.7 1.6 1.5 14.2 13.7 13.7 42.6 3.4 Refining & marketing S-OIL 195 KS 86,9. 8,922 5,236. 1,548. 12,32. 16.6 8.2 7.1 1.9 1.6 1.5 11.5 21.3 22. 65.2 5.4 SK INNOVATION 9677 KS 145,5. 12,269 12,223. 18,456. 21,832. 11.9 7.9 6.7.9.8.7 7.7 1.9 11.8 51.5 1.7 GS HOLDINGS 7893 KS 53,7. 4,55 5,354. 8,194. 1,14. 1. 6.6 5.4.8.7.6 8.2 11.7 12.8 6. 1.9 SINOPEC 386 HK 6.6 98,199.7.9.9 9.5 7.7 7.4 1.1 1..9 12.6 14. 13.5 55.7 4.6 THAI OIL TOP TB 64.3 4,421 5.9 6.9 6.8 11. 9.3 9.5 1.5 1.4 1.3 14.8 15.5 13.8 54.1 4.7 PTT GLOBAL CHEM PTTGC TB 7.8 1,76 7.1 7.9 8.4 1. 9. 8.5 1.4 1.3 1.2 14.9 15.3 14.8 61.5 4.8 JX HLD 52 JP 524. 13,314 72.8 72. 77.2 7.2 7.3 6.8.7.7.6 9.9 9.8 9.9 131.9 3.1 TONENGENERAL 512 JP 974. 5,65 111. 59. 55.1 8.8 16.5 17.7 1.5 1.2 1.2 17.1 6.5 6.9 116. 3.9 RELIANCE IND RIL IN 87. 48,292 63.7 65.8 69.9 12.7 12.3 11.5 1.5 1.4 1.2 12.6 11.8 11.4 49.1 1.2 BPCL BPCL IN 43.7 5,49 16.6 23.9 26.2 24.3 16.9 15.4 1.8 1.7 1.6 7.2 1.2 1.6 189.9 1.8 Average 12.2 1.2 9.6 1.3 1.2 1.1 11.6 12.7 12.8 83.5 3.3 Petrochemical LOTTE CHEMICAL 1117 KS 16,. 5,1 9,478. 13,24. 21,186. 16.9 12.3 7.6.9.9.8 5.5 7.1 1.7 32..7 LG CHEM 5191 KS 257,. 15,532 2,324. 18,687. 21,85. 12.6 13.8 11.8 1.8 1.6 1.5 14.6 12.2 12.8 27.8 1.3 HANWHA CHEM 983 KS 16,15. 2,66 29. 182. 1,431. 77.3 88.7 11.3.6.6.5.7.6 4.9 87.4 2.4 KUMHO PETROCHEM 1178 KS 95,. 2,64 4,644. 8,544. 14,763. 2.5 11.1 6.4 1.7 1.6 1.3 8.7 14.8 22.3 136.3 1.7 SPC 338 HK 2.1 5,418 (.2).1.2-14.8 1.5.9.9.8 (9.4) 6.2 7.7 75.7 1.9 NAN YA PLASTICS 133 TT 59.7 15,881.4 2.5 3.1 136.3 23.5 19.3 1.7 1.7 1.6-8.6 8.2 57.7 2.3 FORMOSA PLASTICS 131 TT 7.8 14,681 2.4 4.1 4.7 29.7 17.4 15.1 1.9 1.8 1.7 6. 1.2 11.2 43.6 3.3 FORMOSA CHEM FIB 1326 TT 68.7 13,244 1.2 3.8 4.1 58.6 18. 16.9 1.6 1.5 1.5 2.6 9.9 7.8 7.9 3.2 SIAM CEMENT SCC TB 482. 19,59 19.7 27.9 33.3 24.5 17.3 14.5 3.8 3.5 3. 16.1 21.6 22.6 122.6 3. PTT GLOBAL CHEM PTTGC TB 7.8 1,76 7.1 7.9 8.4 1. 9. 8.5 1.4 1.3 1.2 14.9 15.3 14.8 61.5 4.8 RELIANCE IND RIL IN 87. 48,292 63.7 65.8 69.9 12.7 12.3 11.5 1.5 1.4 1.2 12.6 11.8 11.4 49.1 1.2 PETRONAS CHEMICAL PCHEM MK 6.5 17,57.5.5.5 14. 13.6 13.2 2.4 2.3 2.1 15.8 17.2 16.2 2.8 3.7 Average 37.5 21. 12.2 1.7 1.6 1.4 8. 11.3 12.5 64. 2.5 Total Average 22.3 15.9 11.4 1.6 1.5 1.3 11.3 12.6 13. 63.4 3.1 ROE Debt to Equity Dividend Yield 17

Part 3. Global valuation: P/B, ROE Figure 53 Oil & gas global peer valuation: FY13E P/B 3.5 3. 2.5 2. 1.5 1..5. Source: Bloomberg, Mirae Asset Research Figure 54 Oil & gas global peer valuation: FY13E ROE Source: Bloomberg, Mirae Asset Research 18 SIAM CEMENT OIL SEARCH PETRONAS CHEMICAL WOODSIDE FORMOSA PLASTICS ONGC NAN YA PLASTICS BPCL FORMOSA CHEM FIB S-OIL PTT E&P LG CHEM KUMHO PETROCHEM THAI OIL RELIANCE IND PTT GLOBAL CHEM TONENGENERAL PTT SANTOS PETRO CHINA SINOPEC CAIRN INDIA SPC LOTTE CHEMICAL SK INNOVATION GS HOLDINGS JX HLD HANWHA CHEM (x) 25 2 15 1 5 SIAM CEMENT KUMHO PETROCHEM S-OIL ONGC PTT E&P CAIRN INDIA PTT PETRONAS CHEMICAL PTT GLOBAL CHEM WOODSIDE THAI OIL SINOPEC LG CHEM GS HOLDINGS SK INNOVATION PETRO CHINA RELIANCE IND FORMOSA PLASTICS LOTTE CHEMICAL BPCL OIL SEARCH JX HLD FORMOSA CHEM FIB SPC TONENGENERAL SANTOS HANWHA CHEM NAN YA PLASTICS (%)

Part 3. Global valuation: Share performance Figure 55 1-week performance 6 4 2 (2) (4) (6) Source: Bloomberg, Mirae Asset Research Note: 1) 1-week = 5 trading days Figure 56 1-month performance Source: Bloomberg, Mirae Asset Research 19 PTT E&P OIL SEARCH PTT PTT GLOBAL CHEM CAIRN INDIA TONENGENERAL JX HLD KUMHO PETROCHEM ONGC PETRONAS CHEMICAL NAN YA PLASTICS LG CHEM SIAM CEMENT PETRO CHINA SANTOS FORMOSA CHEM FIB RELIANCE IND FORMOSA PLASTICS BPCL SINOPEC S-OIL GS HOLDINGS THAI OIL SK INNOVATION SPC HANWHA CHEM WOODSIDE LOTTE CHEMICAL (%) (%) 15 1 5 (5) (1) (15) (2) NAN YA PLASTICS TONENGENERAL BPCL PTT E&P JX HLD ONGC CAIRN INDIA SIAM CEMENT OIL SEARCH WOODSIDE RELIANCE IND PETRONAS CHEMICAL LG CHEM PTT PTT GLOBAL CHEM FORMOSA CHEM FIB SANTOS FORMOSA PLASTICS THAI OIL S-OIL PETRO CHINA SK INNOVATION SINOPEC KUMHO PETROCHEM HANWHA CHEM LOTTE CHEMICAL GS HOLDINGS SPC

Compliance Notice 본자료는투자자의증권투자를돕기위하여당사고객에한하여배포되는자료로서어떠한경우에도복사되거나대여될수없습니다. 본조사자료에수록된내용은당사리서치센터가신뢰할만한자료및정보로부터얻어진것이나당사는그정확성이나완전성을보장할수없습니다. 따라서, 어떠한경우에도본자료는고객의증권투자의결과에대한법적책임소재에대한증빙자료로사용될수없습니다. 동자료는기관투자가또는제3자에게사전제공한사실이없습니다. 자료에게재된내용들은본인의의견을정확하게반영하고있으며, 외부의부당한압력이나간섭없이작성되었음을확인함. 작성자 : 권영배, 홍우태 2