Microsoft Word KKPC downgrade_yb.docx

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1 Rating downgrade Korea / Refining & Petrochemical 21 October 213 HOLD 목표주가 현재주가 (18 Oct 13) 11, 원 112, 원 Upside/downside (%) (1.8) KOSPI 시가총액 ( 십억원 ) 3, 주최저 / 최고 77, - 14, 일평균거래대금 ( 십억원 ) 2.2 외국인지분율 (%) 1.11 금호석유화학 (1178 KS) 아직이른기대 212 년이후합성고무생산설비는약 16% 증가. 증설부담이남아있는상태에서, 214 년타이어및자동차생산량이 SBR 마진의급등했던 21~11 년처럼늘어나는것을기대하기는무리임. 214 년합성고무가격은원재료인부타디엔가격상승을전가하는수준에그칠가능성높음. 금호석유의합성수지 (ABS 등 ) 및페놀 / 유도체부문은벤젠가격강세로마진의추가악화위험이있음. 중국의페놀수입량은 47% 감소했고, 페놀을포함한벤젠다운스트림의집중적인증설이진행중. 금호석유화학주식의현밸류에이션 (214F P/B 1.9 배 ) 은합성고무업황회복에대한기대를충분히반영함. 투자의견중립. Forecast earnings & valuation Fiscal year ending Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 매출액 ( 십억원 ) 5,884 5,422 6,191 6,956 영업이익 ( 십억원 ) 당기순이익 ( 십억원 ) 수정순이익 ( 십억원 ) EPS ( 원 ) 4,644 3,81 8,367 11,961 EPS 성장률 (%) (74.4) (18.2) P/E (x) EV/EBITDA (x) 배당수익률 (%) P/B (x) ROE (%) 순차입금 / 자기자본 (%) Performance KRW Price(LHS) Rel. to KOSPI(RHS) 13 4,1 11 4,1 94,1 1 9% 99 % 89 % 79 % 74,1 69 % Oct-12 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 합성고무 : 원재료 ( 부타디엔등 ) 에마진빼앗길위험큼 2 년이후, SBR 등합성고무마진이원재료인부타디엔마진보다빠르게상승했던시기는 27 년과 211 년두해임. 이시기의특징은 1) 합성고무마진상승전에부타디엔마진의상승이있었으며, 2) 그직전년도의증설이적었고, 3) 자동차생산량증가율이 2 년연속증가했을때임. 214 년, 자동차생산량증가율이 213 년보다의미있게증가하기는어려움. 게다가, 213 년까지완료된증설물량 (+16%) 을감안하면, 합성고무마진의상승은시장기대보다늦어질가능성높음. 특히, 214 년상반기에 NCC 등부타디엔생산설비의증설이제한적임을감안하면, 합성고무가격의상승이합성고무마진의의미있는상승으로연결되기어려움. 페놀계열 : 중국증설및벤젠가격상승부담지속중국을중심으로아시아의벤젠계열다운스트림증설이활발함. 페놀세계소비량은약 8 백만톤수준으로알려져있음. 그러나, 중국및한국등동북아지역에만페놀증설이집중되었고, 215 년까지세계페놀생산능력은 21% 증가할예정. 이미중국의페놀수입량은 211 년이후 47% 감소했고, 그원재료인벤젠수입량은 28% 증가함. 벤젠은미국의순수입이증가하고있는제품이기도함. 멕시코만인근정유사를중심으로벤젠수율 ( 리포머기준 ) 이 17% 감소했기때문. 금호석유화학의페놀및유도체부문 ( 연결매출액기준 18%, 212) 의저조한수익성이당분간지속될가능성높음. Performance 1M 3M 12M 절대수익률 (%) (5.5) KOSPI 대비상대수익률 (%) (1.3) 권영배, CFA, Analyst yb.kwon@miraeasset.com 심은솔 esshim@miraeasset.com 3Q13 Review : 영업손실 15 억원금호석유화학은 3Q13 영업손실 15 억원을기록함. 이는시장기대치 ( 영업이익 65 억원, Bloomberg consensus 기준 ) 를크게하회. 합성고무마진의하락과페놀유도체부문의부진이주원인이었음. 합성고무부문의영업이익률은 % 를기록한것으로알려짐. 3 분기평균 SBR-Mix 스프레드는 US$49/ 톤으로 2 분기대비 3% 하락. 원재료인부타디엔가격이 19% 하락했으나, SM(Styrene Monomer) 가격이 7% 상승했음. 페놀-벤젠스프레드도전분기대비 US$1/ 톤하락했고, BPA-벤젠스프레드는 US$58/ 톤하락. 투자의견중립으로하향금호석유화학에대한투자의견을중립으로낮춤. 목표주가는 11 만원은 214F BPS 대비 1.9 배수준 ( 지속가능 ROE 18.%, 자기자본비용 11.%, 영구성장률 3% 가정 ). 우리는금호석유화학의현주가는합성고무업황회복에대한기대감을이미충분히반영했음. 반면, 이익은원재료가격강세로시장기대치에미치지못할위험존재. 우리는원재료 ( 부타디엔, 벤젠등 ) 를생산하는대형 NCC 들을선호함. See the last page of this report for important disclosures

2 권영배, Analyst, , 심은솔, , 금호석유화학 1178 KS Figure 1 World auto production growth YoY and World GDP growth YoY (%) (%) (5) F214F (1.) (1) (2.) (15) (3.) Global auto production growth YoY (LHS) World GDP Growth YoY (RHS) 자료 : Bloomberg, 미래에셋증권리서치센터 Figure 2 World SBR capacity 1. (YoY %) World SBR capacity growth YoY (%) 5.. (5.) F 213F 214F 자료 : NEXANT, 미래에셋증권리서치센터 Figure 3 Butadiene-Naphtha spread, SBR-Mix spread (US$/t) 4, Buthadiene-Naphtha (RHS) SBR-Mix (LHS) 3,5 3, 2,5 2, 1,5 1, 5 (5) Jan- Jan-2 Jan-4 Jan-6 Jan-8 Jan-1 Jan-12 (US$/t) 2, 1,8 1,6 1,4 1,2 1, 자료 : ICIS, Datastream, 미래에셋증권리서치센터 Mirae Asset Securities 2 2

3 권영배, Analyst, , 심은솔, , 금호석유화학 1178 KS Figure 4 Phenol-Benzene spread (US$/t) 1, Jan-5 Jan-6 Jan-7 Jan-8 Jan-9 Jan-1 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 자료 : Datastream, 미래에셋증권리서치센터 Phenol-Benzene spread Figure 5 China phenol imports, benzene imports (' ton) ytd Phenol imports Benzene imports 자료 : KITA, 미래에셋증권리서치센터 Figure 6 Asia s major phenol expansion projects Facility Location Capacity (tonnes/year) Start-up Remark Yanshan Petrochemical 137, Completed LG Chem 3, 1Q13 Completed CEPSA Caojing, Shanghai 25, End 213 On track Shandong Shengquan Chemical 22, On track Formosa Chemicals & Fibre Corp 3, 1H214 w/ 5MT of ABS Sinopec Mitsui 25, 214 On track Changchun Petrochemical 2, 214 On track Kumho P&B 3, 2Q 215 On track Ineos Phenol and Sinopec 4, 216 Proposed 자료 : ICIS, 미래에셋증권리서치센터 Mirae Asset Securities 3 3

4 권영배, Analyst, , 심은솔, , 금호석유화학 1178 KS Figure 7 Key earnings revision (KRW bn) 213F 214F New Previous %chg New Previous %chg Sales 5,422 5,628 (3.7) 6,191 6,349 (2.5) Operating profit (13.5) (2.1) Net profit (9.4) (24.9) OPM (%) ppt ppt NPM (%) ppt ppt 자료 : 미래에셋증권리서치센터 Figure 8 Target price calculation Target price calculation Long-term ROE (%) 18. Cost of equity (%) 11. Terminal growth (%) 3. Target P/B (X) F BPS (KRW) 58,932 Target price (KRW) 11, 자료 : 미래에셋증권리서치센터 Figure 9 P/B band chart 257, (KRW) Share price 4.6X 27, 157, 2.9X 17, 1.9X 57,.9X 7, Oct8 Oct9 Oct1 Oct11 Oct12.5X 자료 : 미래에셋증권리서치센터 Mirae Asset Securities 4 4

5 권영배, Analyst, , 심은솔, , 금호석유화학 1178 KS Figure 1 Peer group valuation table SKI SOIL GSH LGC LTC KKPC HWC (Under review) HCM Code 9677 KS 195 KS 7893 KS 5191 KS 1117 KS 1178 KS 983 KS 6926 KS Rating BUY BUY BUY BUY BUY HOLD HOLD BUY Target price (KRW) 18, 1, 65, 4, 3, 11, 17, 27, Current price (18 Oct, KRW) 151,5 77,9 59,5 322,5 225, 112, 24,2 22,2 Upside (%) Target PB (x) Long-term ROE (%) Cost of equity (%) Long-term growth (%) Sales ,371 31,914 8,493 22,676 15,7 6,457 7, (KRW bn) ,33 34,723 9,838 23,263 15,93 5,884 6, F 69,54 31,643 9,731 23,569 16,688 5,422 6, F 71,755 33,893 1,579 25,217 17,759 6,191 7, Operating profit 211 2,96 1, ,819 1, (KRW bn) 212 1, , F 1, , F 2,45 1, , Net income 211 3,169 1, , (KRW bn) 212 1, , F 1, , F 1,427 1, , OPM (%) F F ROA (%) F F ROE (%) F F Div yield (%) F F EPS growth (%) (4.2) (.4) 24.5 (12.1) (36.5) (23.1) 212 (62.6) (5.9) (36.1) (3.1) (69.1) (74.4) (88.3) (2.6) 213F (8.8) 13.2 (7.7) (2.6) 14.1 (18.1) F P/E (x) F F adj. P/B (x) F F adj. BPS (KRW) ,551 44,812 63, , ,276 51,891 29,513 1, ,24 46,15 66, , ,32 55,474 28,964 11, F 171,953 49,136 69,659 16, ,171 53,25 28,845 11, F 183,679 54,389 75, ,6 24,999 58,932 3,563 12,757 EPS (KRW) ,816 1,214 8,172 29,74 3,71 18,124 1,793 1, ,649 5,18 5,218 2,324 9,478 4, , F 11,541 5,68 4,817 19,791 1,815 3, , F 15,227 9,22 6,636 23,279 19,428 8,367 2,1 2,199 DPS (KRW) 211 2,8 4,8 1,35 4, 1,75 2, ,2 2,65 1,35 4, 1, 2, F 3,2 3,2 1,35 4, 1,1 2, F 3,5 4,2 1,7 4,5 1,6 2,2 4 1, 자료 : 미래에셋증권리서치센터 Mirae Asset Securities 5 5

6 Part 1. Oil & gas: Price 원유가격브렌트 US$111.1/bbl (+US$2.3/bbl WoW) 두바이 US$17.3/bbl (+US$.4/bbl WoW) WTI US$12.3/bbl (+US$.7/bbl WoW) 천연가스가격 Henry Hub US$3.9/MMBtu (+US$.2/MMBtu WoW) Figure 1 Crude oil price (Brent, Dubai, WTI) Figure 2 Gas price (Natural gas, LPG) Brent Dubai WTI (US$/MMBtu) (US cents/gal) Henry Hub natural gas (LHS) Mont Belvieu propane (RHS) Mont Belvieu butane (RHS) Mont Belvieu ethane (RHS) 자료 : Datastream, 미래에셋증권리서치센터자료 : Datastream, 미래에셋증권리서치센터 유가스프레드 Brent-Dubai US$3.8/bbl (+US$1.9/bbl WoW) Brent-WTI US$8.8/bbl (+US$1.6/bbl WoW) 원유 / 가스가격비 26.6배지난주 : 27.5배 Figure 3 Spreads (Brent-Dubai, Brent-WTI) Figure 4 Oil to gas ratio (x) (5) Brent-Dubai Brent-WTI 자료 : Datastream, 미래에셋증권리서치센터자료 : Datastream, 미래에셋증권리서치센터 6

7 Part 1. Oil & gas: US inventory 원유재고증감 +3m bbl WoW Cushing 재고증감 +.2m bbl WoW Figure 5 Crude oil inventory Figure 6 Cushing WTI inventory (bbl m) (bbl m) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec year average year average 자료 : Datastream, 미래에셋증권리서치센터자료 : Datastream, 미래에셋증권리서치센터 Figure 7 Natural gas inventory Figure 8 Rig count (bcf) 4,5 4, 3,5 3, 2,5 2, 1,5 1, Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec year average (Units) 1,6 1,4 1,2 1, Jan1 Jul1 Jan11 Jul11 Jan12 Jul12 Jan13 Jul13 Gas rigs Oil rigs 자료 : Datastream, 미래에셋증권리서치센터자료 : Datastream, 미래에셋증권리서치센터 7

8 Part 1. Oil & gas: Supply and demand 9월세계원유수요 91.4m b/d 9월세계원유공급 92.2m b/d 9월세계원유초과공급.69m b Figure 9 World crude oil supply and demand Figure 1 World crude oil oversupply (b/d m) (b/d m) Oversupply (1) 75 (2) (3) Overdemand 7 (4) (5) World crude oil supply World crude oil demand (6) 자료 : EIA, 미래에셋증권리서치센터자료 : EIA, 미래에셋증권리서치센터 9월 Non-OPEC 원유공급 53.5m b/d (+3.7% YoY) 9월 OPEC 원유공급 3m b/d (-3.2% YoY) Figure 11 Non-OPEC crude oil supply Figure 12 OPEC crude oil supply (b/d m) (%) Jan9 Jul9 Jan1 Jul1 Jan11 Jul11 Jan12 Jul12 Jan13 Jul13 Non-OPEC crude oil supply (LHS) YoY (RHS) (b/d m) Jan9 Jul9 Jan1 Jul1 Jan11 Jul11 Jan12 Jul12 Jan13 Jul13 자료 : Energy Intelligence, 미래에셋증권리서치센터자료 : Energy Intelligence, 미래에셋증권리서치센터 OPEC crude oil supply (LHS) YoY (RHS) (%)

9 Part 1. Oil & gas: Supply and demand Table 2 Global demand and supply of oil and gas (m barrels/day) Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q OECD DEMAND Americas Europe Asia Oceania NON-OECD DEMAND FSU Europe China Other Asia Latin America Middle East Africa Total DEMAND Global oil supply (m bopd) (m barrels/day) Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q OECD SUPPLY Americas Europe Asia Oceania Non-OECD SUPPLY FSU Europe China Other Asia Latin America Middle East Africa OPEC SUPPLY Crude NGLs Total SUPPLY 자료 : EIA, 미래에셋증권리서치센터 9

10 Part 1. Oil & gas: Production 9월사우디원유생산 1m b/d (-3.7% YoY) 9월이란원유생산 2.6m b/d (-19% YoY) Figure 13 Crude oil production of Saudi Arabia Figure 14 Crude oil production of Iran (' b/d) (%) (' b/d) 11, 2 5, 1,5 15 4,5 1, 1 9,5 5 4, (%) , 3,5-1 8,5 8, 7, , 2, , Jan9 Jul9 Jan1 Jul1 Jan11 Jul11 Jan12 Jul12 Jan13 Jul13-2 2, Jan9 Jul9 Jan1 Jul1 Jan11 Jul11 Jan12 Jul12 Jan13 Jul13-3 Saudi Arabia crude production (LHS) YoY (RHS) Iran crude production (LHS) YoY (RHS) 자료 : EIA, 미래에셋증권리서치센터자료 : EIA, 미래에셋증권리서치센터 9월이라크원유생산 3.3m b/d (+8.1% YoY) 9월쿠웨이트원유생산 3m b/d (+7.6% YoY) Figure 15 Crude oil production of Iraq Figure 16 Crude oil production of Kuwait (' b/d) (%) (' b/d) (%) 4, 3 3,6 2 3,8 25 3,4 15 3,6 2 3,2 1 3,4 15 3,2 3, 5 1 3, 2,8 5 2,8 2,6-5 2,6 2,4-5 2,4-1 2,2-1 2,2-15 2, -15 2, -2 Jan9 Jul9 Jan1 Jul1 Jan11 Jul11 Jan12 Jul12 Jan13 Jul13 Jan9 Jul9 Jan1 Jul1 Jan11 Jul11 Jan12 Jul12 Jan13 Jul13 Iraq crude production (LHS) YoY (RHS) Kuwait crude production (LHS) YoY (RHS) 자료 : EIA, 미래에셋증권리서치센터자료 : EIA, 미래에셋증권리서치센터 1

11 Part 1. Oil & gas: Production 9월 OPEC 총원유생산 31.1m b/d (-3% YoY) 7월미국원유생산 7.5m b/d (+16.6% YoY) Figure 17 Crude oil production of OPEC Figure 18 Crude oil production of US (' b/d) (%) (' b/d) (%) 35, 15 8, 5 34, 1 7,5 4 33, 7, 3 32, 5 31, 6,5 2 3, 6, 1 29, -5 5,5 28, -1 5, -1 27, , 4,5-2 25, -2 4, -3 Jan9 Jul9 Jan1 Jul1 Jan11 Jul11 Jan12 Jul12 Jan13 Jul13 Jan9 Jul9 Jan1 Jul1 Jan11 Jul11 Jan12 Jul12 Jan13 Jul13 Total OPEC crude production (LHS) YoY (RHS) US crude production (LHS) YoY (RHS) 자료 : EIA, 미래에셋증권리서치센터자료 : EIA, 미래에셋증권리서치센터 8월러시아원유생산 1.5m b/d (+2.3% YoY) 8월중국원유생산 4.1m b/d (+5.7% YoY) Figure 19 Crude oil production of Russia Figure 2 Crude oil production of China (' b/d) (%) (' b/d) (%) 11, 6 4,5 14 1,8 5 4,4 12 1,6 4 4,3 1 1,4 3 4, ,2 2 4,1 4 1, 1 4, 2 9,8 3,9 9,6-1 3,8-2 9,4-2 3,7-4 9,2-3 3,6-6 9, -4 3,5-8 Jan9 Jul9 Jan1 Jul1 Jan11 Jul11 Jan12 Jul12 Jan13 Jul13 Jan9 Jul9 Jan1 Jul1 Jan11 Jul11 Jan12 Jul12 Jan13 Jul13 Russia crude production (LHS) YoY (RHS) China crude production (LHS) YoY (RHS) 자료 : EIA, 미래에셋증권리서치센터자료 : EIA, 미래에셋증권리서치센터 11

12 Part 1. Oil & gas: Open interest Figure 21 Price and open interest of WTI crude oil Figure 22 Price and open interest of Brent crude oil (' contracts) 2, 115 1,9 11 1,8 15 1,7 1 1,6 95 1,5 9 1,4 1,3 85 1,2 8 1,1 75 1, 7 Open Interest (LHS) Cushing spot price (RHS) (' contracts) 1,7 13 1, ,5 12 1, ,3 15 1,2 1 1,1 95 1, Open interest (LHS) Brent spot price (RHS) 자료 : Datastream, 미래에셋증권리서치센터자료 : Datastream, 미래에셋증권리서치센터 Figure 23 Price and open interest of natural gas (' contracts) (US$/MMBtu) 1,7 5. 1, ,5 4. 1, ,3 3. 1,2 1, , Open interest (LHS) Henry Hub spot price (RHS) 자료 : Datastream, 미래에셋증권리서치센터 12

13 Part 1. Oil & gas: Non-commercial net position Figure 24 Non-commercial net position of WTI crude oil Figure 25 Non-commercial net position of Brent crude oil (' contracts) (' contracts) (5) (1) (15) (2) (25) (3) (35) (4) Jan12 Apr12 Jul12 Oct12 Jan13 Apr13 Jul13 8 (45) Jan12 Apr12 Jul12 Oct12 Jan13 Apr13 Jul13 8 Net position (LHS) Price (RHS) Net position (LHS) Price (RHS) 자료 : Datastream, 미래에셋증권리서치센터자료 : Datastream, 미래에셋증권리서치센터 Figure 26 Non-commercial net position of natural gas (' contracts) (US$/MMBtu) 5. (2) 4.8 (4) 4.6 (6) 4.4 (8) 4.2 (1) 4. (12) 3.8 (14) 3.6 (16) 3.4 (18) 3.2 (2) 3. Jan12 Apr12 Jul12 Oct12 Jan13 Apr13 Jul13 Net position (LHS) Price (RHS) 자료 : Datastream, 미래에셋증권리서치센터 13

14 Part 1. Oil & gas: Future curve Figure 27 Future curve of WTI crude oil Figure 28 Future curve of Brent crude oil (US$) Spot 1M 2M 3M 4M 5M 6M 7M 8M 9M 1M 11M 12M This week Past 1 week Past 1 month Past 3 month (US$) Spot 1M 2M 3M 4M 5M 6M 7M 8M 9M 1M 11M 12M This week Past 1 week Past 1 month Past 3 month 자료 : Datastream, 미래에셋증권리서치센터자료 : Datastream, 미래에셋증권리서치센터 Figure 29 Future curve of natural gas (US$) Spot 1M 2M 3M 4M 5M 6M 7M 8M 9M 1M 11M 12M This week Past 1 week Past 1 month Past 3 month 자료 : Datastream, 미래에셋증권리서치센터 14

15 Part 2. Refining: Asia refining margin trend 싱가포르복합정제마진 US$3.8/bbl (+US$.4/bbl WoW) Figure 3 Singapore gross refining margin (GRM) Figure 31 Dubai crack (gasoline:diesel = 1:1, vs. Dubai) Jan11 Jul11 Jan12 Jul12 Jan13 Jul Jan11 Jul11 Jan12 Jul12 Jan13 Jul13 자료 : Datastream, 미래에셋증권리서치센터자료 : Datastream, 미래에셋증권리서치센터 가솔린크랙 US$8.6/bbl (-US$/bbl WoW) 디젤크랙 US$17.6/bbl (-US$.6/bbl WoW) Figure 32 Gasoline, diesel crack (vs. Dubai) Figure 33 Kerosene, naphtha, LPG, B-C crack (vs. Dubai) (1) 1 (2) (3) 5 (4) (5) Jan11 Jul11 Jan12 Jul12 Jan13 Jul13 Jan11 Jul11 Jan12 Jul12 Jan13 Jul13 Gasoline crack Diesel crack Kerosene crack Naphtha crack LPG crack B-C crack 자료 : Datastream, 미래에셋증권리서치센터자료 : Datastream, 미래에셋증권리서치센터 15

16 Part 2. Refining: Global refining margin trend 유럽 (ARA) 과아시아정제마진 (6:3:2:1) 차이 US$5.5/bbl (+US$.5/bbl WoW) 미국 (USGC) 과아시아정제마진차이 US$4.6/bbl (+US$.1/bbl WoW) Figure 34 Global refining margin (gasoline:diesel = 1:1) Figure 35 Global refining margin (gasoline:diesel:kerosene = 2:3:1) Asia (vs Dubai) USGC (vs WTI) ARA (vs Brent) Asia (vs Dubai) USGC (vs WTI) ARA (vs Brent) 자료 : Datastream, 미래에셋증권리서치센터자료 : Datastream, 미래에셋증권리서치센터 미국과유럽간가솔린크랙차이 US$8.6/bbl (-US$/bbl WoW) Figure 36 Global gasoline crack Figure 37 Global diesel crack US ARA US ARA 자료 : Datastream, 미래에셋증권리서치센터자료 : Datastream, 미래에셋증권리서치센터 16

17 Part 2. Refining: Petroleum product price trend 미국과아시아의가솔린가격스프레드 US$-.7/bbl (-US$.3/bbl WoW) Figure 38 Global gasoline and diesel spread (USGC vs. Asia) Figure 39 Global gasoline price trend (5) 11 (1) 1 (15) (2) 9 Gasoline Diesel Asia US Europe 자료 : Datastream, 미래에셋증권리서치센터자료 : Datastream, 미래에셋증권리서치센터 아시아디젤가격 US$125/bbl (-US$.2/bbl WoW) 아시아등유가격 US$124.1/bbl (+US$.5/bbl WoW) Figure 4 Global diesel price trend Figure 41 Global kerosene price trend Asia US Europe Asia US Europe 자료 : Datastream, 미래에셋증권리서치센터자료 : Datastream, 미래에셋증권리서치센터 17

18 Part 2. Refining: Petroleum stock trend 미국가솔린재고증가율 12.5% YoY Figure 42 US gasoline stock Figure 43 US gasoline stock growth (YoY) (bbl m) (%) year high year low Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov year average Jan1 Jul1 Jan11 Jul11 Jan12 Jul12 Jan13 Jul13 자료 : EIA, 미래에셋증권리서치센터자료 : EIA, 미래에셋증권리서치센터 미국디젤재고증가율 4.3% YoY Figure 44 US diesel stock Figure 45 US diesel stock growth (YoY) (bbl m) (%) year high year low Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov -3 5-year average Jan1 Jul1 Jan11 Jul11 Jan12 Jul12 Jan13 Jul13 자료 : EIA, 미래에셋증권리서치센터자료 : EIA, 미래에셋증권리서치센터 18

19 Part 2. Refining: Base oil pricing and spreads 베이스오일가격 Group I: US$175/tonne (+US$/tonne WoW) Group II: US$1125/tonne (+US$/tonne WoW) Group III: US$165/tonne (+US$25/tonne WoW) Figure 46 Base oil price trend Figure 47 Spread: Base oil (vs. 3.5% HSFO) 1,6 1,5 1,4 1,3 1,2 1,1 1, Jan1 Jul1 Jan11 Jul11 Jan12 Jul12 Jan13 Jul13 Group I Group II Group III 1, Jan1 Jul1 Jan11 Jul11 Jan12 Jul12 Jan13 Jul13 Group I Group II Group III 자료 : Datastream, ICIS, 미래에셋증권리서치센터자료 : Datastream, ICIS, 미래에셋증권리서치센터 Group I, II, III 스프레드 (HSFO 대비 ) Group I: US$453.5/tonne (+US$3/tonne WoW) Group II: US$53.5/tonne (+US$3/tonne WoW) Group III: US$443.5/tonne (+US$28/tonne WoW) Figure 48 Group II vs. Dubai Figure 49 Group III vs. Dubai 1,6 1,5 1,4 1,3 1,2 1,1 1, 9 8 Jan11 Jul11 Jan12 Jul12 Jan13 Jul ,6 13 1,5 12 1,4 1,3 11 1,2 1 1,1 9 1, Group II (LHS) Dubai (RHS) Group III (LHS) Dubai (RHS) 자료 : Datastream, ICIS, 미래에셋증권리서치센터자료 : Datastream, ICIS, 미래에셋증권리서치센터 19

20 Part 2. Refining: Futures Figure 5 Future curve of gasoline Figure 51 Future curve of gasoil (US$) Spot 1M 2M 3M 4M 5M 6M 7M 8M 9M 1M 11M 12M This week Past 1 week Past 1 month Past 3 month (US$) Spot 1M 2M 3M 4M 5M 6M 7M 8M 9M 1M 11M 12M This week Past 1 week Past 1 month Past 3 month 자료 : Datastream, 미래에셋증권리서치센터자료 : Datastream, 미래에셋증권리서치센터 Figure 52 Non-commercial net position of gasoline Figure 53 Non-commercial net position of gasoil (' contracts) (US$/Gal) (' contracts) (US$/MT) , (5) (1) (15) (2) (25) Jan12 Apr12 Jul12 Oct12 Jan13 Apr13 Jul13 23 (3) Jan12 Apr12 Jul12 Oct12 Jan13 Apr13 Jul13 78 Net position (LHS) Price (RHS) Net position (LHS) Price (RHS) 자료 : Datastream, 미래에셋증권리서치센터자료 : Datastream, 미래에셋증권리서치센터 2

21 Part 2. Refining: Open interests Figure 54 Open interest of gasoline Figure 55 Open interest of gasoil (' contracts) (US$/Gal) Open interest (LHS) Unleaded premium gulf spot price (RHS) (' contracts) (5) (1) (15) (2) (25) (3) Jan12 Apr12 Jul12 Oct12 Jan13 Apr13 Jul13 Net position (LHS) Price (RHS) (US$/MT) 1, 자료 : Datastream, 미래에셋증권리서치센터자료 : Datastream, 미래에셋증권리서치센터 21

22 Part 3. Petrochemical: Key olefin pricing and spreads NCC 마진 US$445.8/tonne (-US$5.5/tonne WoW) Figure 56 NCC margin Figure 57 Ethylene, propylene, butadiene price trend 9 2, 5, 8 1,8 4,5 7 1,6 4, 6 1,4 3,5 5 3, 4 1,2 2,5 3 1, 2, 2 8 1, , Jan1 Jul1 Jan11 Jul11 Jan12 Jul12 Jan13 Jul13 Jan1 Jul1 Jan11 Jul11 Jan12 Jul12 Jan13 Jul13 Ethylene (LHS) Propylene (LHS) Butadiene (RHS) 자료 : Datastream, Cischem, 미래에셋증권리서치센터자료 : Datastream, Cischem, 미래에셋증권리서치센터 기초유분스프레드에틸렌-납사 US$418.5/tonne (+US$2.8/tonne WoW) 프로필렌-납사 US$443.5/tonne (-US$32.2/tonne WoW) 부타디엔-납사 US$718.5/tonne (+US$47.8/tonne WoW) Figure 58 Spread: Ethylene, propylene, butadiene (vs. naphtha) Figure 59 Relative price: Propylene, butadiene (vs. ethylene) (x) 8 4, , , , , , , Jan1 Jul1 Jan11 Jul11 Jan12 Jul12 Jan13 Jul13. Ethylene-Naphtha (LHS) Propylene-Naphtha (LHS) Jan1 Jul1 Jan11 Jul11 Jan12 Jul12 Jan13 Jul13 Butadiene-Naphtha (RHS) Propylene/Ethylene Butadiene/Ethylene 자료 : Datastream, Cischem, 미래에셋증권리서치센터자료 : Datastream, Cischem, 미래에셋증권리서치센터 22

23 Part 3. Petrochemical: BTX pricing and spreads BTX 가격벤젠 US$1272.5/tonne (-US$2.5/tonne WoW) 톨루엔 US$1122.5/tonne (-US$.5/tonne WoW) 자일렌 US$1252.5/tonne (-US$.5/tonne WoW) Figure 6 Benzene, toluene, xylene (MX) price trend Figure 61 Spread: Benzene, toluene, xylene (vs. naphtha) 1,6 6 1,5 1,4 5 1,3 4 1,2 1,1 3 1, Jan1 Jul1 Jan11 Jul11 Jan12 Jul12 Jan13 Jul13 Jan1 Jul1 Jan11 Jul11 Jan12 Jul12 Jan13 Jul13 Benzene Toluene Xylene Benzene-Naphtha Toluene-Naphtha Xylene-Naphtha 자료 : Datastream, Cischem, 미래에셋증권리서치센터자료 : Datastream, Cischem, 미래에셋증권리서치센터 BTX-납사스프레드벤젠-납사 US$428.5/tonne (-US$52.2/tonne WoW) 톨루엔-납사 US$588.5/tonne (+US$7.8/tonne WoW) 자일렌-납사 US$698.5/tonne (-US$2.2/tonne WoW) Figure 62 Relative price: BTX (vs. ethylene) Figure 63 Benzene-to-oil ratio (USGC/WTI, Asia/Dubai) (x) (x) Jan1 Jul1 Jan11 Jul11 Jan12 Jul12 Jan13 Jul13 Jan1 Jul1 Jan11 Jul11 Jan12 Jul12 Jan13 Jul13 Benzene/Ethylene Toluene/Ethylene Xylene/Ethylene Benzene USGC/WTI Benzene Asia/Dubai 자료 : Datastream, Cischem, 미래에셋증권리서치센터자료 : Datastream, Cischem, 미래에셋증권리서치센터 23

24 Part 3. Petrochemical: PE/PP pricing and spreads PE-납사스프레드 HDPE-납사 US$428.5/tonne (-US$52.2/tonne WoW) LDPE-납사 US$588.5/tonne (+US$7.8/tonne WoW) LLDPE-납사 US$698.5/tonne (-US$2.2/tonne WoW) Figure 64 PE price trend Figure 65 Spread: PE (vs. ethylene) 1,8 7 1,7 6 1,6 5 1,5 4 1,4 1,3 3 1,2 2 1,1 1 1, Jan1 Jul1 Jan11 Jul11 Jan12 Jul12 Jan13 Jul13 Jan1 Jul1 Jan11 Jul11 Jan12 Jul12 Jan13 Jul13 HDPE LDPE LLDPE HDPE-Ethylene LDPE-Ethylene LLDPE-Ethylene 자료 : Datastream, Cischem, 미래에셋증권리서치센터자료 : Datastream, Cischem, 미래에셋증권리서치센터 폴리프로필렌스프레드 (vs. 프로필렌 ) US$14/tonne (+US$25/tonne WoW) 프로필렌스프레드 (vs. 납사 ) US$443.5/tonne (-US$32.2/tonne WoW) Figure 66 PP price trend Figure 67 Spread: PP (vs. propylene) 1, ,6 6 1, ,4 45 1, , ,1 2 1, Jan1 Jul1 Jan11 Jul11 Jan12 Jul12 Jan13 Jul13 Jan1 Jul1 Jan11 Jul11 Jan12 Jul12 Jan13 Jul13 Propylene-Naphtha PP-Propylene 자료 : Datastream, Cischem, 미래에셋증권리서치센터자료 : Datastream, Cischem, 미래에셋증권리서치센터 24

25 Part 3. Petrochemical: ABS, PVC pricing and spreads ABS-mix 스프레드 US$184.3/tonne (-US$29.9/tonne WoW) Figure 68 ABS price trend Figure 69 Spread: ABS (vs. mix) 2,4 6 2,3 2,2 4 2,1 2 2, 1,9 1,8 1,7 (2) 1,6 (4) 1,5 1,4 (6) Jan1 Jul1 Jan11 Jul11 Jan12 Jul12 Jan13 Jul13 Jan1 Jul1 Jan11 Jul11 Jan12 Jul12 Jan13 Jul13 자료 : Datastream, Cischem, 미래에셋증권리서치센터자료 : Datastream, Cischem, 미래에셋증권리서치센터 PVC-VCM 스프레드 US$16/tonne (-US$15/tonne WoW) Figure 7 PVC price trend Figure 71 Spread: PVC (vs. mix) 1,3 9 1,25 1,2 8 1,15 7 1,1 6 1,5 1, Jan1 Jul1 Jan11 Jul11 Jan12 Jul12 Jan13 Jul13 Jan1 Jul1 Jan11 Jul11 Jan12 Jul12 Jan13 Jul13 VCM-Mix PVC-VCM 자료 : Datastream, Cischem, 미래에셋증권리서치센터자료 : Datastream, Cischem, 미래에셋증권리서치센터 25

26 Part 3. Petrochemical: SBR, PET chain pricing and spreads SBR 가격 US$25/tonne (+US$/tonne WoW) SBR-mix (BD&SM) 스프레드 US$363/tonne (-US$43.8/tonne WoW) Figure 72 SBR price trend Figure 73 Spread: SBR (vs. mix) 4,9 2,5 4,4 2, 3,9 3,4 2,9 2,4 1,9 1,4 Feb11 Aug11 Feb12 Aug12 Feb13 Aug13 1,5 1, 5 Jan1 Jul1 Jan11 Jul11 Jan12 Jul12 Jan13 Jul13 자료 : Datastream, Cischem, 미래에셋증권리서치센터자료 : Datastream, Cischem, 미래에셋증권리서치센터 합성섬유-납사스프레드 MEG-납사 US$34/tonne (-US$2/tonne WoW) TPA-납사 US$128.5/tonne (-US$25.2/tonne WoW) PET-납사 US$116/tonne (-US$29.7/tonne WoW) PX-납사스프레드 US$521/tonne (-US$22.7/tonne WoW) Figure 74 Synthetic fiber chain price trend: MEG, TPA, PET Figure 75 PX pricing and spread (vs. Naphtha) 2, 1,8 1,8 1,6 1,4 1,6 1,2 1,4 1, 1, , Jan1 Jul1 Jan11 Jul11 Jan12 Jul12 Jan13 Jul13 Jan1 Jul1 Jan11 Jul11 Jan12 Jul12 Jan13 Jul13 MEG TPA PET PX-Naphtha PX price 자료 : Datastream, Cischem, 미래에셋증권리서치센터자료 : Datastream, Cischem, 미래에셋증권리서치센터 26

27 Part 3. Petrochemical: Key commodities Figure 76 Natural rubber vs. SBR Figure 77 Cotton vs. PET, MEG 5,5 5, 4,5 4, 3,5 3, 2,5 2, 1,5 1, Jan1 Jul1 Jan11 Jul11 Jan12 Jul12 Jan13 Jul13 5, 4,5 4, 3,5 3, 2,5 2, 1,5 1, 5 Jan1 Jul1 Jan11 Jul11 Jan12 Jul12 Jan13 Jul13 Natural rubber SBR Cotton PET MEG 자료 : Datastream, ICIS, 미래에셋증권리서치센터자료 : Datastream, Cischem, 미래에셋증권리서치센터 27

28 Part 4. Global valuation: Comparison table Table 3 Oil & gas global peer valuation table (Local currency, x, %) Company Code 자료 : Bloomberg, 미래에셋증권리서치센터 Current price Market cap (US$ m) EPS P/E P/B FY12A FY13E FY14E FY12A FY13E FY14E FY12A FY13E FY14E FY12A FY13E FY14E FY13E FY13E Exploration & production PETRO CHINA 857 HK , SINOPEC 386 HK , PTT PTT TB , PTT E&P PTTEP TB , RELIANCE IND RIL IN , ONGC ONGC IN , CAIRN INDIA CAIR IN , WOODSIDE WPL AU , SANTOS STO AU , OIL SEARCH OSH AU , Average Refining & marketing S-OIL 195 KS 77,9. 8,262 5,18.3 6, , SK INNOVATION 9677 KS 151,5. 13,197 12, , , GS HOLDINGS 7893 KS 59,5. 5,28 5, , , SINOPEC 386 HK , THAI OIL TOP TB 65. 4, PTT GLOBAL CHEM PTTGC TB , JX HLD 52 JP , TONENGENERAL 512 JP , RELIANCE IND RIL IN , BPCL BPCL IN , Average Petrochemical LOTTE CHEMICAL 1117 KS 225,. 7,265 9, , , LG CHEM 5191 KS 322,5. 2,134 2, , , HANWHA CHEM 983 KS 24,2. 3, , KUMHO PETROCHEM 1178 KS 112,. 3,215 4, , , SPC 338 HK 2.3 4,243 (.2).2.2 N/A (9.4) NAN YA PLASTICS 133 TT , N/A FORMOSA PLASTICS 131 TT , FORMOSA CHEM FIB 1326 TT , SIAM CEMENT SCC TB , PTT GLOBAL CHEM PTTGC TB , RELIANCE IND RIL IN , PETRONAS CHEMICAL PCHEM MK , Average Total Average ROE Debt to Equity Dividend Yield 28

29 Part 4. Global valuation: P/B, ROE Figure 78 Oil & gas global peer valuation: FY13E P/B 자료 : Bloomberg, 미래에셋증권리서치센터 Figure 79 Oil & gas global peer valuation: FY13E ROE 자료 : Bloomberg, 미래에셋증권리서치센터 29 OIL SEARCH SIAM CEMENT PETRONAS CHEMICAL FORMOSA PLASTICS WOODSIDE NAN YA PLASTICS LG CHEM FORMOSA CHEM FIB PTT E&P KUMHO PETROCHEM ONGC BPCL RELIANCE IND SANTOS PTT GLOBAL CHEM S-OIL THAI OIL PTT CAIRN INDIA TONENGENERAL LOTTE CHEMICAL PETRO CHINA SPC SINOPEC HANWHA CHEM SK INNOVATION GS HOLDINGS JX HLD (x) SIAM CEMENT CAIRN INDIA KUMHO PETROCHEM PTT E&P PETRONAS CHEMICAL S-OIL ONGC PTT PTT GLOBAL CHEM WOODSIDE THAI OIL SINOPEC LG CHEM RELIANCE IND BPCL PETRO CHINA FORMOSA PLASTICS GS HOLDINGS LOTTE CHEMICAL OIL SEARCH SK INNOVATION FORMOSA CHEM FIB JX HLD SPC HANWHA CHEM TONENGENERAL SANTOS NAN YA PLASTICS (%)

30 Part 4. Global valuation: Share performance Figure 8 1-week performance (2.) 자료 : Bloomberg, 미래에셋증권리서치센터주 : 1-week = 5 trading days Figure 81 1-month performance 자료 : Bloomberg, 미래에셋증권리서치센터 3 KUMHO PETROCHEM HANWHA CHEM BPCL RELIANCE IND LOTTE CHEMICAL GS HOLDINGS ONGC LG CHEM PETRO CHINA JX HLD FORMOSA PLASTICS CAIRN INDIA SK INNOVATION PETRONAS CHEMICAL OIL SEARCH THAI OIL SIAM CEMENT FORMOSA CHEM FIB PTT GLOBAL CHEM PTT E&P WOODSIDE S-OIL TONENGENERAL SINOPEC NAN YA PLASTICS SANTOS SPC PTT (%) (5.) (1.) (15.) LOTTE CHEMICAL HANWHA CHEM BPCL KUMHO PETROCHEM THAI OIL PTT GLOBAL CHEM FORMOSA CHEM FIB PETRONAS CHEMICAL PETRO CHINA RELIANCE IND NAN YA PLASTICS FORMOSA PLASTICS CAIRN INDIA GS HOLDINGS LG CHEM OIL SEARCH PTT E&P SINOPEC SK INNOVATION ONGC SIAM CEMENT TONENGENERAL SPC WOODSIDE SANTOS S-OIL PTT JX HLD (%)

31 권영배, Analyst, , 심은솔, , 금호석유화학 1178 KS Summary financial statements 손익계산서 12 월결산 ( 십억원 ) 212E 213E 214E 215E 매출액 5,884 5,422 6,191 6,956 매출원가 (5,481) (5,3) (5,664) (6,281) 매출총이익 판매비와관리비 (179) (179) (183) (195) 영업이익 ( 조정 ) 영업이익 순이자손익 (84) (6) (55) (53) 지분법손익 기타 (73) (76) (28) (28) 세전계속사업손익 법인세비용 (8) (27) (69) (1) 당기순이익 당기순이익 ( 지배주주지분 ) EPS ( 지배주주지분, 원 ) 4,644 3,81 8,367 11,961 대차대조표 ]12 월결산 ( 십억원 ) 212E 213E 214E 215E 유동자산 1,49 1,558 1,776 2,96 현금및현금성자산 단기금융자산 매출채권 재고자산 기타유동자산 비유동자산 2,921 2,965 3,41 3,88 유형자산 2,13 2,189 2,17 2,12 투자자산 기타비유동자산 자산총계 4,411 4,523 4,817 5,185 유동부채 1,438 1,445 1,51 1,561 매입채무 단기금융부채 기타유동부채 증가율 & 마진 (%) 212E 213E 214E 215E 매출액증가율 (8.9) (7.8) 매출총이익증가율 (61.5) (2.7) 영업이익증가율 (73.3) (4.9) 당기순이익증가율 (74.4) (18.2) EPS 증가율 (74.4) (18.2) 매출총이익율 영업이익률 비유동부채 1,314 1,481 1,559 1,616 장기금융부채 1,211 1,372 1,485 1,67 기타비유동부채 부채총계 2,752 2,926 3,6 3,178 지배주주지분 1,548 1,484 1,644 1,894 비지배주주지분 자본총계 1,658 1,597 1,757 2,7 BVPS ( 원 ) 55,474 53,25 58,932 67,892 당기순이익률 현금흐름표 12 월결산 ( 십억원 ) 212E 213E 214E 215E 영업현금 당기순이익 유무형자산상각비 기타 24 9 (231) (228) 운전자본증감 (64) (8) (79) (13) 투자현금 (374) (238) (2) (157) 자본적지출 (368) (218) (178) (136) 주요투자지표 12 월결산 212E 213E 214E 215E 자기자본이익률 (%) 총자산이익률 (%) 재고자산보유기간 ( 일 ) 매출채권회수기간 ( 일 ) 매입채무결재기간 ( 일 ) 순차입금 / 자기자본 (%) 이자보상배율 (x) 기타 (5) (2) (21) (21) 재무현금 (132) (55) 배당금 (56) (134) (74) (84) 자본의증가 ( 감소 ) 부채의증가 ( 감소 ) (76) 기초현금 기말현금 자료 : 금호석유화학,, 미래에셋증권리서치센터추정치 자료 : 금호석유화학, 미래에셋증권리서치센터추정치 Mirae Asset Securities 31 31

32 권영배, Analyst, , 심은솔, , 금호석유화학 1178 KS Recommendations 종목별투자의견 (12 개월기준 ) BUY : 현주가대비목표주가 +1% 초과 Hold : 현주가대비목표주가 ±1% 이내 Reduce : 현주가대비목표주가 1% 초과단, 업종투자의견에의한 ±1% 내의조정치감안가능 업종별투자의견 Overweight : 현업종지수대비 +1% 초과 Neutral : 현업종지수대비 ±1% 이내 Underweight : 현업종지수대비 1% 초과 Compliance Notice 본자료는투자자의증권투자를돕기위하여당사고객에한하여배포되는자료로서어떠한경우에도복사되거나대여될수없습니다. 본조사자료에수록된내용은당사리서치센터가신뢰할만한자료및정보로부터얻어진것이나당사는그정확성이나완전성을보장할수없습니다. 따라서, 어떠한경우에도본자료는고객의증권투자의결과에대한법적책임소재에대한증빙자료로사용될수없습니다. 동자료는기관투자가또는제 3 자에게사전제공한사실이없습니다. 자료에게재된내용들은본인의의견을정확하게반영하고있으며, 외부의부당한압력이나간섭없이작성되었음을확인함. 작성자 : 권영배, 심은솔 담당자보유주식수종목담당자종류수량취득가취득일 1% 이상보유여부 유가증권종목 계열사담당자 자사주종류 Target Price and Recommendation Chart Stock Price & Target Price Trend Stock Price Target Price 금호석유화학 (1178 KS) B - Buy H - Hold R - Reduce Date Recommendation 12m target price BUY (Initiate) 14, BUY 14, BUY 14, BUY 125, (Down) BUY 125, BUY 125, BUY 15, (Down) BUY 15, BUY 15, BUY 15, HOLD 11, (Up) Mirae Asset Securities 32 32