Comment Fixed Income Strategy 2 January 216 1 1 () (1) (1) (2) ROE: US HY Non-Energy Energy 2 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 214 21 안정성수익성현금흐름 US HY Sector Net Interest ROE FCF debt/ebitda coverage ratio Energy X X X O Communications X X O X Discretionary O O O Staples O O O O Health Care O O O Industrials O O Materials Technology X O X Utilities O Fixed Income Analyst 3774 3976, em.jung@miraeasset.com See the last page of this report for important disclosures
, Fixed Income Analyst, 3774 3976, em.jung@miraeasset.com (pt, 212 초 =1) 17 US HY BofA merrill lynch bond index 16 1 14 Europe HY Asian dollar HY Asian dollar_china issuer HY 13 12 11 1 9 212 214 21 216 (USD/bl) WTI spot (RHS) (ppt) 12 US HY spread (1Y, RHS) 8 1 7 6 8 6 4 4 3 2 2 1 212 214 21 216 1 1 () (1) (1) HY bond index performance (since 1H1) US Europe Asian dollar Asian dollar_ China issuer 2 2
, Fixed Income Analyst, 3774 3976, em.jung@miraeasset.com 1 9 8 7 6 4 3 2 1 2 26 27 Net debt/ebitda 28 29 21 211 212 214 21 (% YoY) US HY (USD m, 4Q sum) 3 Net debt (LHS) 26, 3 2 2 1 1 EBITDA (RHS) 26 27 28 28 29 21 211 212 214 21 24, 22, 2, 18, 16, 14, 12, 1, 8, 3 3
, Fixed Income Analyst, 3774 3976, em.jung@miraeasset.com 8 6 4 2 (2) (4) (6) (8) (1) (12) Net debt/ebitda by industry Range (1Y) Avg Current Communications discretionary staples Health Care Industrials Materials Technology Utilities (% YoY) 3 Net debt: Energy (USD m) 2, EBITDA: Energy 2 2 1 1, 1,, 1 (,) () 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 214 21 (1,) (1,) (2,) (2,) 2 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 214 21 2 18 16 14 12 1 8 6 4 2 26 Net debt/ebitda: Communications 27 28 29 21 211 212 214 21 18 16 14 12 1 8 6 4 2 (2) (4) 2 26 Net debt/ebitda: Technology 27 28 29 21 211 212 214 21 4 4
, Fixed Income Analyst, 3774 3976, em.jung@miraeasset.com. 4. 3. 2. Interest coverage ratio (% YoY) US HY (USD m, 4Q sum) 2 14, Interest expense (LHS) 12, 2 EBIT (RHS) 1, 1 8, 1. 1 6,. (1.) 4, 2, (2.) 2 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 214 21 26 27 28 28 29 21 211 212 214 21 1 1 () (1) Interest coverage ratio by industry Range (1Y) Avg Current (1) Energy Communications discretionary staples Health Care Industrials Materials Technology Utilities
, Fixed Income Analyst, 3774 3976, em.jung@miraeasset.com 6. 4. 2.. ROE 1 1 Net income margin (NI/Sales) (2.) () (4.) (1) (6.) (8.) (1.) (12.) (1) (2) (2) (3) 2 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 214 21 2 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 214 21.2.24.23.22.21.2.19.18.17.16.1 Total asset turnover (Sales/total asset) 4.3 4.1 3.9 3.7 3. 3.3 3.1 2.9 2.7 2. Leverage ratio (Total asset/total equity) 2 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 214 21 2 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 214 21 6 6
, Fixed Income Analyst, 3774 3976, em.jung@miraeasset.com ROE by industry 2 1 (1) (2) (3) (4) () (6) (7) Range (1Y) Avg Current Energy Communications discretionary staples Health Care Industrials Materials Technology Utilities 7 7
, Fixed Income Analyst, 3774 3976, em.jung@miraeasset.com (USD m) 4, 3, 2, 1, (1,) (2,) FCF (4Q sum) (USD m, 4Q sum) 2, 23, 21, 19, 17, 1, 13, 11, 9, 7,, EBITDA 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 214 21 26 27 27 28 29 21 21 211 212 214 21 (% YoY) Capex growth 4 3 2 1 (1) (2) (3) (4) () 27 28 29 21 211 212 214 21 (% YoY) 14 12 1 8 6 4 2 (2) (4) (6) (8) 27 28 29 Capex growth 21 211 212 Energy Industrials Materials 214 21 8 8
, Fixed Income Analyst, 3774 3976, em.jung@miraeasset.com West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Crude Oil Price dollars per barrel 22 2 18 16 14 12 1 8 6 4 2 Historical spot price STEO price forecast NYMEX futures price 9% NYMEX futures upper confidence interval 9% NYMEX futures lower confidence interval Jan 21 Jul 21 Jan 216 Jul 216 Jan 217 Jul 217 Note: Confidence interval derived from options market information for the trading days ending Jan. 7, 216. Intervals not calculated for months with sparse trading in near-the-money options Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, January 216. 2 2 2 1 1 Sector distribution: BB 3 29 3 2 2 1 1 Sector distribution: B 38 Sector distribution: CCC 4 3 3 2 2 1 1 에너지 통신 / 미디어 경기소비 필수소비 의료 산업재 소재 IT 유틸리티 에너지 통신 / 미디어 경기소비 필수소비 의료 산업재 소재 IT 유틸리티 에너지 통신 / 미디어 경기소비 필수소비 의료 산업재 소재 IT 유틸리티 9 9
, Fixed Income Analyst, 3774 3976, em.jung@miraeasset.com 3 2 Net debt/ebitda (ex. Energy) 4. 4. 3. Interest coverage ratio (ex. Energy) 2 3. 2. 1 2. 1 1. 1... (.) 2 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 214 21 2 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 214 21 6. 4. 2. ROE (ex. Energy) 1.. Sales margin (ex. Energy). (2.). (4.) (6.) (8.) (.) (1.) (1.) (12.) (14.) (1.) (2.) 2 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 214 21 2 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 214 21. Leverage ratio (ex. Energy).27 Total asset turnover (ex. Energy) 4..2 4..23.21 3..19 3..17 2..1 2 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 214 21 2 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 214 21 1 1
, Fixed Income Analyst, 3774 3976, em.jung@miraeasset.com (USD m) 4, 4, 3, 3, 2, 2, 1, 1,, FCF 4Q sum (ex. Energy) (% YoY) 4 3 2 1 (1) (2) (3) (4) Capex (ex. Energy) 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 214 21 27 28 29 21 211 212 214 21 2 2 1 US HY sector distribution Market value # of companies 1 Energy Communications Discretionary Staples Health Care Industrials Materials Technology Utilities Financials 11 11
, Fixed Income Analyst, 3774 3976, em.jung@miraeasset.com 안정성 수익성 현금흐름 US HY Sector Interest Net debt/ebitda coverage ratio ROE FCF Energy X X X O Communications X X O X Discretionary O O O Staples O O O O Health Care O O O Industrials O O Materials Technology X O X Utilities O * 순부채 /EBITDA: 과거평균 (1 년 ) 대비 +1 표준편차상회 X, +. 표준편차상회, +. 표준편차미만 O ** 이자보상배율 : 과거평균 (1 년 ) 대비 -1 표준편차하회 X, 평균하회, 평균상회 O *** ROE: 과거평균 (1 년 ) 대비 -1 표준편차하회 X, -. 표준편차하회, -. 표준편차상회 O **** FCF: 과거평균 (1 년 ) 하회 X, 평균 ~+1 표준편차, +1 표준편차상회 O 본자료는투자자의증권투자를돕기위하여미래에셋증권고객에한하여배포되는자료로서어떠한경우에도복사되거나대여될수없습니다. 본조사자료에수록된내용은당사리서치센터가신뢰할만한자료및정보로부터얻어진것이나미래에셋증권은그정확성이나완전성을보장할수없습니다. 따라서, 어떠한경우에도본자료는고객의증권투자의결과에대한법적책임소재에대한증빙자료로사용될수없습니다. 동자료는기관투자가또는제 3 자에게사전제공한사실이없습니다. 동자료에게재된내용들은본인의의견을정확하게반영하고있으며, 외부의부당한압력이나간섭없이작성되었음을확인함. 작성자 : 정의민 12 12