2010 년도예비타당성조사보고서 부산지하철 1 호선양산연장건설사업 2010. 12 KDI 공공투자관리센터 대진대학교산학협력단 ( 주 ) 미래교통 ( 주 ) 동일기술공사
요약
제 Ⅰ 장예비타당성조사의개요 1. 사업의배경및목적 25.,,,,,. 2004~2008 3.67%,. 2. 사업의추진경위 < 표 1> 사업추진경위 3 2 08.05~07 1 2 () 08.08 (~, ) 09.02~05 ( B/C=1.013)
3. 사업의내용 < 표 2> 부산지하철 1 호선양산연장건설사업 ~ 14.069km, 7, 1 4,511 ( 60%(2,707), 40%(1,805)) 9(3, 6) (2019 ) : :,, 4. 예비타당성조사의범위 :, :, : 2008 : 2019 (3 6 9 ) : 2021, 2026, 2031 : 2048 ( 30, 2036 )
제 Ⅱ 장기초자료분석, 관련계획검토, 조사의쟁점, 대안설정 1. 기초자료분석 가. 사회경제지표현황, 3.67%, -0.60%. < 표 3> 인구현황 (:, %) 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 12,036 11,684 12,093 12,405 12,729 1.41 30,267 28,672 28,340 31,231 37,231 5.31 34,309 44,278 48,107 48,598 50,840 10.33 22,932 23,764 24,736 24,846 24,430 1.59 8,273 8,653 8,637 8,949 9,307 2.99 213,695 222,299 226,936 235,299 246,852 3.67 271,346 266,329 264,907 260,844 258,604-1.20 333,976 336,483 331,385 326,602 320,328-1.04 3,684,153 3,657,840 3,635,389 3,615,101 3,596,076-0.60 :,.,, 11.09%. < 표 4> 자동차등록대수현황 (:, %) 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 4,393 4,609 5,164 5,837 6,188 8.94 9,205 8,977 9,340 10,439 11,066 4.71 11,752 14,992 16,661 16,884 17,898 11.09 8,236 8,706 9,073 9,250 9,806 4.46 4,206 4,363 4,315 4,279 4,536 1.91 73,987 78,359 81,741 85,192 90,309 5.11 73,954 73,293 74,390 75,231 75,735 0.60 84,397 86,646 86,679 87,152 86,860 0.72 966,417 979,969 994,292 1,010,086 1,038,954 1.83 :,.
나. 교통현황., 1022 35~ -12.96%. < 표 5> 사업대상주변지역도로교통량현황 ( : /) 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 IC~JCT 58,997 55,205 57,265 59,917 55,768-1.40 JCT~IC 79,156 74,276 75,949 83,436 81,584 0.76 IC~IC 65,857 64,414 63,906 66,558 61,380-1.74 IC~IC 58,573 56,919 62,049 66,837 65,833 2.96 IC~JCT 64,583 65,913 72,972 78,106 67,151 0.98 7 ~ 59,086 60,895 59,233 61,413 56,700-1.03 35 ~ 26,005 26,080 26,505 28,314 26,166 0.15 ~ 25,540 28,406 24,683 25,636 28,429 2.72 1022 35~ 32,838 33,475 35,275 29,003 18,844-12.96 ~ 37,624 40,417 35,155 33,654 34,368-2.24 1077 ~ 37,410 31,329 26,048 22,920 25,984-8.71 ~ 21,129 19,143 18,252 26,704 19,215-2.35 1028 ~35 6,389 6,358 6,549 6,375 6,141-0.98 :,,
1 2 2008, 1 395,654/, 2 238,078/. < 표 6> 부산지하철주요역별여객승차추이 (: /) 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 1 13,890 14,000 17,499 17,895 19,079 8.26% 10,559 9,817 9,372 8,936 9,126-3.58% 7,831 7,265 6,910 6,580 6,738-3.69% - - - - 4,689-2 - - - - 1,334-2,278 2,134 2,193 2,296 1,553-9.13% 2,566 2,583 2,611 2,450 2,159-4.23% 1 450,699 424,709 388,755 374,617 395,654-3.20% 2 236,527 232,723 222,157 214,872 238,078 0.16% : 2 ~ 2008 1 :,, 2009 [ 그림 1] 부산지하철주요역별여객승차추이
다. 분석기초자료 (KTDB) 검토 1) 통행량원단위검토 KTDB 2008 KTDB 2008., 1 1.474, 1.480. < 표 7> KTDB 양산시통행량유발원단위 2008 2008 (:, /) 363,790 365,294 246,852 1.474 1.480 :,,, 2) 기준년도통행현황검토 KTDB 2008, 60% 2.6%. < 표 8> KTDB 2008년수단분담율현황 (: /) 2,289,009 36.6% 204,464 59.1% 2,337,762 37.3% 102,911 29.7% 720,178 11.5% 8,919 2.6% 915,643 14.6% 29,890 8.6% 6,262,592 100.0% 346,184 100.0%
2. 상위및관련계획의검토 4 (2000~2020), (2000~2019).,. 1. < 표 9> 관련계획검토 4 (2000~2020), 2002, (2000~2019), 1999, (2006~2010) (1995~2011), 5 (, 2001~2021) 3 (2001~2020) (2007~2026) 2016 (1998.1.16) 2020(2001~2020) 2020 (2000~2020) (20022011)
3. 예비타당성조사의쟁점가. 분석기초자료의적정성검토 KTDB O/D Network 2009 12, 2008 O/D Network,., KTDB, 2009 12 KTDB, KTDB, 나. 죤세분화및장래수단분담율변화를고려한수요추정의정밀도제고 7,,, 4, 3 5 19 O/D KTDB O/D, O/D
다. 부산도시철도계획노선의합리적인반영 1, 2, 3, 1, 4 (3 ), ~,.,. KTDB,, 2 ~ O/D 2 ~, 라. 시스템대안설정 AGT LIM.,. AGT LIM,,,,
마. 노선대안선정및합리적인정거장환승계획수립 1 2,. 1, 35m 2. 101(), 105() 1 2, 1, 2. 1 2, 1 2 바. 지자체의추진의지및재원조달가능성검토 2009. 60%, 40%,, (km),,,,.
4. 도시철도시스템검토 가. 도시철도도입의필요성,,,,,,,,, 나. 차량시스템검토및선정,,,,, AGT < 표 10> 차량시스템제원 AGT LIM (W H L) K-AGT () (ROTEM) MK- () Hitachi (HITACHI) 2.4 3.5 19.28 2.65 3.4 27 3.2 3.94 17.6 2.98 5.1 30.2 2 1 2 1 1 1 2 1 () 204 304 226 265 (km/h) (/) 80/70 80/70 90/80 80/70 40 50 100 80 () 70 60 45 60 DC 750V DC 750V DC 750V DC 1500V
14 부산지하철 1호선 양산연장 건설사업 예비타당성조사 5. 노선대안 선정 가. 기본전제 기존 부산지하철1호선과 2호선과의 합리적인 환승, 민원 보상 최소화 및 승객 의 접근성 향상을 위해 주로 도로를 따라 건설되는 경전철의 특성과 타 교통 수단과의 원활한 연계체계 구축을 고려할 경우 본 과업구간에 설정이 가능한 노선대안은 극히 제한적임. 본 과업에서는 기 시행된 부산지하철1호선 양산선(노포 북정)연장 예비타당성 기초조사, 양산시, 2009" 에서 제시된 노포동정거장에서 사송택지개발지구를 경유하여 도심구간을 우회하여 북정정거장 부근에 이르는 노선안을 대안1(제 안안)로 선정하고, 양산시 도심구간을 통과하는 노선을 대안2로 설정하였으며, 대안1과 대안2가 수요에 영향을 미칠 수 있을 만큼 대안간 차이가 없기 때문에 수요차이는 없는 것을 전제하였음. 나. 노선계획 <표 11> 구간별 주요 검토사항 1구간 2구간 3구간 과업시점~지경고개) (지경고개~ 동명교) (동명교~ 과업종점) 기존 부산지하철 1호선 사송택지지구 접근성 고려한 기존 부산지하철 2호선 양산 노포동 정거장과 환승방안을 102 103정거장 입지선정 정거장 환승을 고려한 고려한 노선 및 구조물계획 토공계획을 고려한 노선선정 노선계획 및 구조물 계획 (
다. 대안노선선정. < 표 12> 노선대안의비교분석 1 2 1077 1077 14km069 13km545 100 80 22 21 21 19 58 58 10km024 4km045 9km500 4km045 2km890 1km230 2km890 1km230 7km134 2km815 6km610 2km815 - - - - - 7-7 - 2-2 - 5-5 - - - - 25,200 25,200 2 1 = x 1,050 /, (5, KDI, 2008.12)P.187 15
제 Ⅲ 장비용추정 1. 비용추정의기본방향 ( ) (5) (, 2008.12) (~, ). (5) (, 2008.12),,.. 2. 건설대안별시설계획 1. < 표 13> 건설대안별시설계획
3. 비용추정결과,,,. < 표 14> 총사업비내역 ( 대안 1) 1) : 14.069km( : km, 14.069km) 2) : 7 3) : 9,949m () () A. 3,452.6 A-1.. 1,413.2 A-1-1. A-1-2. km 2.89 39.1 113.0 km 1.23 60.2 74.0 km 7.13 97.0 692.0 km 2.82 149.3 420.3 U-TYPE km - 90.2 10m km - 404.4 20m km - 455.6 30m km - 596.0 NATM km - 239.5 2 6.7 13.4 (2), L=35m 5 20.1 100.5 (2), L=35m - 67.4 (3), L=35m - 80.8 A-1-3. - 70.2 A-2. 169.8 A-2-1. km 10.024 9.4 94.2 km 4.045 18.7 75.6 km - A-3. 361.6 A-3-1. 1,600 0.031 49.6 8,000 0.039 312.0-0.018
< > () () A-4. 1,231.3 A-4-1. km 10.024 28.7 287.7 km 4.045 44.0 178.0 km 10.024 19.9 199.5 A-4-2. km 4.045 30.6 123.8 1 68 68 A-4-3. km 14.069 15.6 219.5 1 154.8 154.8 A-5. 276.7 A-5-1. 24 11.53 276.7 B. 459.1 B-1. (A1A5) (%) 0.01363 3,452.6 47.1 1.363% B-2. (A1A5) (%) 0.00136 3,452.6 4.7 0.136% B-3. (A1A5) (%) 0.02715 3,452.6 93.7 2.715% B-4. (A1A5) (%) 0.00277 3,452.6 9.6 0.277% B-5. () (A1A5) (%) 0.02980 3,452.6 102.9 2.980% B-6. (A1A5) (%) 0.0100 3,452.6 34.5 1.0% B-7. SE A4 (%) 0.0500 1,231.3 61.6 5.0% B-8. (%) 0.5000 126.6 63.3 50.0% B-9. (B1B8) 10(%) 41.7 C. 227.5 D. (A+B+C) 10% 413.9 E. 24 16.9 405.6 F. (A+B+C+D+E) 4,958.7
< 표 15> 총사업비내역 ( 대안 2) 1) : 13.545km( : km, 13.545km) 2) : 7 3) : 9,425m () () A. 3,363.3 A-1.. 1,362.4 km 2.89 39.1 113.0 km 1.23 60.2 74.0 km 6.61 97.0 641.2 km 2.82 149.3 420.3 A-1-1. U-TYPE km - 90.2 10m km - 404.4 20m km - 455.6 30m km - 596.0 NATM km - 239.5 2 6.7 13.4 A-1-2. (2), L=35m 5 20.1 100.5 (2), L=35m - 67.4 (3), L=35m - 80.8 A-1-3. - 70.2 A-2. 164.9 A-2-1. km 9.5 9.4 89.3 km 4.05 18.7 75.6 km - A-3. 361.6 1,600 0.031 49.6 A-3-1. 8,000 0.039 312.0-0.018
< 표계속 > () () A-4. 1,197.7 A-4-1. km 9.50 28.7 272.7 km 4.045 44.0 178.0 A-4-2. km 9.50 19.9 189.1 km 4.045 30.6 123.8 1 68 68.0 A-4-3. km 13.545 15.6 211.3 1 154.8 154.8 A-5. 276.7 A-5-1. 24 11.53 276.7 B. 447.2 B-1. (A1A5) (%) 0.01365 3,363.3 45.9 1.365% B-2. (A1A5) (%) 0.00137 3,363.3 4.6 0.137% B-3. (A1A5) (%) 0.02716 3,363.3 91.3 2.716% B-4. (A1A5) (%) 0.00278 3,363.3 9.3 0.278% B-5. () (A1A5) (%) 0.02980 3,363.3 100.2 2.980% B-6. (A1A5) (%) 0.0100 3,363.3 33.6 1.00% B-7. SE A4 (%) 0.0500 1,197.7 59.9 5% B-8. (%) 0.5000 123.41 61.7 50% B-9. (B1B8) 10(%) 40.7 C. 229.3 D. (A+B+C) 10% 404.0 E. 24 16.9 405.6 F. (A+B+C+D+E) 4,849.4
. (, 2007.12), (5) (, 2008.12), (~, ). < 표 16> 기초조사용역과의비용비교 (: ) - A. 3,351.9 3,452.6 100.7 A-1. 1,587.5 1,413.2-174.3 A-1-1. 1,401.1 1,299.3 A-1-2. 186.4 113.9 A-1-3. A-2. 106.0 169.8 63.8 A-2-1. 106.0 169.8 A-3. 139.7 361.6 221.9 A-3-1. 139.7 361.6 A-4. 1,260.5 1,231.3-29.2 A-4-1. 362.2 465.7 A-4-2. 615.0 391.3 A-4-3. 90.1 374.3 A-4-4. 135.8 A-4-5. AFC 57.4 A-5. 258.2 276.7 18.5 A-5-1. 258.2 276.7 B. 231.1 459.1 228.0 B-1. 44.9 51.8 B-2. 90.5 103.3 B-3. () 41.2 102.9 B-4. 33.5 34.5 B-5. SE 61.6 B-6. 63.3 B-7. 21.0 41.7 C. 344.4 227.5-116.9 D. 392.7 413.9 21.2 E. 507.0 405.6-101.4 F. 4,827.1 4,958.7 131.6
제 Ⅳ 장교통수요추정 1. 개요 1 DB DB(KTDB: Korea Transportation Database) O/D Network, (5). O/D 4,,.,, O/D,. < 표 17> 교통수요예측단계별적용방법 DB(KTDB), (KTDB ) (KTDB ) O/D -, -
2. 분석범위와수준설정 가. 시간적범위의설정 : 2008 ( ) : 2019, 2021, 2026, 2031, 2036 () 2048 () 나. 공간적범위의설정 O/D (PV), (DV), (RV). 다. 영향권설정결과,. < 표 18> 최종영향권산정결과 O/D Network,,
1) O/D 를이용한영향권산정 PV 2%. < 표 19> 영향권선정을위한부산광역시권역구분 (),,,,,,,,,,,, < 표 20> 양산시발생량의도착지별분포 ( 도보및기타제외, 2008 년 ) O D (: /, %) 32,564 43,726 17,958 26,163 464 423 30 3,698 3,583 128,609 9.4% 12.6% 5.2% 7.5% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 1.1% 1.0% 36.9% [ 그림 2] O/D 분포를이용한영향권설정
2) 링크교통량변화율을이용한영향권산정 R>5% R>3%.,.,, [ 그림 3] 사업노선건설에따른교통량변화 R>5% R>3% 3) 외부죤설정및 Sub area 구축 Sub area 3%,, counting station Sub area.,,., 3% Sub area 3%,.
3. 기본자료의수정 가. 존세분화및세분 O/D 구축 KTDB 659 O/D,,,, 4, 3 5 19. 1,2,3 4 1 2,. O/D,,. < 표 21> 교통존체계수정내용및분할비율 433 434 438 439 440 433 1 0.5 0.3 660 2 0.05 0.15 661 3 0.3 0.35 662 4 0.15 0.2 434 1 0.7 0.4 663 2 0.2 0.1 664 3 0.05 0.3 665 4 0.05 0.2 438 1 0.5 0.5 666 2 0.3 0.3 667 3 0.1 0.1 668 4-0.1 0.1 439 1 0.5 0.5 669 2-0.25 0.3 670 3 0.25 0.2 440 1-0.3 0.3 671 2 0.3 0.3 672 3 0.2 0.2 673 4 0.2 0.2
나. 기준년도 O/D 및네트워크수정 O/D. O/D 249, 249 O/D 659,. KTDB. connector,,,. < 표 22> 기준년도 O/D 및네트워크수정 O/D, KTDB O/D O/D,,, 1) 기준년도화물 O/D 수정 O/D 2007 248 ( 249).,,. 0,.
[ 그림 4] 화물 O/D 구축개요 < 표 23> KTDB 및본과업화물통행량개요 2007 2008 20112036 (5) 248 ( 249) 2019, 2021, 2026 2031, 2036 (5) 658 ( 659) 2007 2011 O/D 2008 2016 2021 O/D 2019 - // - 3, 38, 8-2) 기준년도여객 O/D 수정 2008 O/D. connector 1 27.9%, 47.8%, 2, 30.0%, 77.6%,, 162.9%, 26.6%., 2008 O/D,, KTDB.
< 표 24> 2008 년영향권역부산지하철최초통행배정결과 1 2 (A) (B) ((B-A)/A) 19,079 17,629 13,764 14,064-27.9% -20.2% 9,126 7,159 50 79-3.9% 2.1% 6,738 5,711 15,193 13,063 - - 7,956 6,359 11,762 8,800 47.8% 38.4% 4,689 4,424 3,283 3,870-30.0% -12.5% 1,334 1,177 3,507 3,431 162.9% 191.5% 1,553 2,209 348 596-77.6% -73.0% 2,159 1,567 4,690 3,962 26.6% 53.6% 1,547 1,013 - - - - 54,181 47,248 52,597 47,865-2.9% 1.3% : 2 O/D, 5%, 2.2%. /, /,. < 표 25> 2008 년영향권역부산지하철현황정산결과 1 2 (A) (B) ((B-A)/A) 19,079 17,629 18,534 17,356-2.9% -1.5% 9,126 7,159 50 79-3.1% 2.7% 6,738 5,711 15,316 13,142 - - 7,956 6,359 7,970 6,387 0.2% 0.4% 4,689 4,424 4,528 4,320-3.4% -2.4% 1,334 1,177 1,354 1,215 1.5% 3.2% 1,553 2,209 1,553 2,210 0.0% 0.0% 2,159 1,567 3,707 2,600 0.0% 0.8% 1,547 1,013 - - - - 54,181 47,248 53,012 47,309-2.2% 0.1% : 2
다. 현황네트워크수정. < 표 26> 현황네트워크주요수정내역 - 1 - - 69, 1077-2 - - - 69, 1077-2 ~ - IC - IC - 1077 2-1077 3 < 표 27> 현황네트워크주요수정결과
요 약 31 <표 계속> 현황 네트워크 주요 수정결과 구 분 국지도69호 지방도1077호 연계 호선 양산역까지 철도노선망 추가 2 구 양산IC 연결램프 삭제 물금지구와 지방도1077호 연결도로 추가 및 3차로 수정 수정전 수정후
다. 장래 O/D 및네트워크수정 1) 장래개발계획, 2012 2014 10,683,. < 표 28> 영향권주변장래개발계획 () () 10,683.0 150,715 2014 2,766.3 36,584 2012 105.7 900 2010,,, DB 134.7 3,648 2010 203.9 8,005 2010 202.3 3,100 2010 127.5 4,613 2010 1,194.0 7,500 2011, 418.0 1,907 2012 366 1,567 2012 366.1 1,678 2013
2) 개발계획반영 2008 KTDB 2008, 1 1.474, 1.480. 0. < 표 29> 양산시인구당통행량유발원단위산정 2008 (: /) 2008 363,790 365,294 246,852 1.474 1.480 :,,, < 표 30> 개발계획에따른장래유발통행량 (2019년 ) () (: /) 8,005 432 11,797 11,846 3,100 431 4,569 4,587 4,613 429 6,798 6,826 1,907 435 2,810 2,822 7,500 670 11,053 11,099 1,567 432 2,309 2,319 1,678 432 2,473 2,484
3) 장래네트워크수정. < 표 31> 영향권내주요도로망계획 () 35 ~ 60 ~ 11.8 4 2012 ~ 7.5 4 2012 IC~ 8.7 4~6 2009 ~ 9 4 2011 ~ 11.43 4 2010 ~ 8.35 4 2011 7 ~ 8.2 4 2010 35 ~ 20.0 4 2010 7 ~ 29.04 4 2013 ~ ~ 1.96 4 2010 3-3 ~ 5.8 8 2015 ~ ~IC~JCT~JCT 23.7 46,8 2013 ~IC~IC 19.8 46,8 2013 JCT~JCT 10.7 4 2013 1077 ~ 2.2 46 2012 < 표 32> 부산광역권지하철 ( 광역철도 ) 계획 () 1 ~ 7.98 6 2016 4 () ~ 12.7 14 2010 ~ 72.1 22 2015 ~ ~ 51.4 8 2017 ~ 23.46 21 2011 ~ 38.8 6 2011 ~~ 101.4 12 2012
[ 그림 5] 2019 년도로네트워크 [ 그림 6] 2019 년철도네트워크
4. 수단선택 2008,, 2009. 11 (KTDB ). < 표 33> 여객수단선택의계수및통계량 Std.Err. t-ratio P-value ρ2-0.03089 0.00269657-13.57 0.00-0.00019 0.0000124-22.28 0.00-0.92463 0.0358604-25.78 0.00 0.29724-1.14738 0.0344236-33.33 0.00-1.23620 0.0247369-49.97 0.00 : 2008,, 2009. 11 2,., 1.1 ~ 6.8 2.5., Node, dummy link (), 2.5 dummy link.,.
5. 통행배정 O/D Network EMME/3, (Single-Class Assignment).,,,,., 2008 24, 2008. 2008,,,, 6.39%, 4.39%,. < 표 34> 부산광역시시간대별교통량및지하철이용분포 01:00~02:00 1.6% 0.00% 13:00~14:00 5.1% 6.09% 02:00~03:00 1.3% 0.00% 14:00~15:00 5.4% 5.88% 03:00~04:00 1.0% 0.00% 15:00~16:00 5.4% 6.09% 04:00~05:00 1.1% 0.03% 16:00~17:00 5.6% 6.63% 05:00~06:00 1.7% 1.11% 17:00~18:00 6.0% 7.89% 06:00~07:00 3.3% 2.14% 18:00~19:00 6.4% 9.46% 07:00~08:00 5.7% 5.83% 19:00~20:00 5.5% 6.05% 08:00~09:00 6.3% 8.15% 20:00~21:00 4.7% 4.33% 09:00~10:00 5.4% 5.72% 21:00~22:00 4.4% 3.82% 10:00~11:00 5.2% 4.88% 22:00~23:00 3.7% 3.13% 11:00~12:00 5.1% 5.20% 23:00~24:00 3.0% 1.80% 12:00~13:00 4.8% 5.69% 24:00~01:00 2.4% 0.08% < 표 35> 첨두 / 비첨두지속시간및집중률 4 7-9,17-19 6.09% 7.83% 6.39% 16 4.41% 4.29% 4.39% 4 1-5 1.27% 0.01% - :, 2008, 2009. 2, 2008, 2009
2008,, 2009. 11 (KTDB ),. < 표 36> 부산광역권평균재차인원 (: /) 1.40 1.41 1.34 1.34 17.60 17.60 17.60 17.60 1.52 1.50 1.47 1.47 1.42 1.26 1.40 1.40 17.60 17.60 17.60 17.60 1.65 1.61 1.57 1.57 1.45 1.30 1.31 1.31 17.60 17.60 17.60 17.60 1.57 1.61 1.51 1.51 1.45 1.30 1.31 1.31 17.60 17.60 17.60 17.60 1.57 1.61 1.51 1.51 :, 2008, 2009. 11
VDF -(VDF: Volume-Delay Function) KTDB. KTDB 31 9 VDF (32~40). KTDB VDF 2008, 2009,, 14,677/. < 표 37> 가중평균통행시간가치 ( 부산 울산권 : 2008 년기준 ) (/) 2,152,432 162,368 507,666 2,822,466 76.3% 5.8% 18.0% 100.2% 2007 9,497 64,870 16,571 2008 9,989 68,229 17,429 14,677 :, (5), 2008.12., 2009 (,, ), 2009.12.,. < 표 38> 고속도로가중평균요금 1 2 3 4 5 668,219 43,920 33,140 17,087 31,908 794,273 84.1% 5.5% 4.2% 2.2% 4.0% 100.0% 862 862 40.5 41.3 42.9 57.5 68.0 42.1 :, 2008, 2009.
< 표 39> 부산광역권도로유형별 VDF 함수 ( 가중치 2008 년기준수정 ) VDF α β 1 1 80 0.58 2.4 1600 0.086 (/km) 2 2 117 0.645 2.047 2200 0.172 (/km) 3 3 119 0.601 2.378 2200 0.207 (/km) 4 1 70 0.15 4 750-5 2 80 0.15 4 1000-6 3 90 0.15 4 1000-7 1, 60 0.15 4 750-8 2, 70 0.15 4 1000-9 3, 80 0.15 4 1000-10 1, 40 0.15 4 650-11 2, 40 0.15 4 900-12 3, 40 0.15 4 900-13 20 99999-14 (3 ) 90 0.58 2.4 2200-15 (2 ) 90 0.15 4 2000-16 50 0.15 4 1,600-17 () 50 0.15 4 1,600 1.76 18 1 () 70 0.15 4 750 20 (/) 19 2 () 80 0.15 4 1000 20 (/) 20 3 () 90 0.15 4 1000 20 (/) 21 1, () 60 0.15 4 750 20 (/) 22 2, () 70 0.15 4 1000 20 (/) 23 3, () 80 0.15 4 1000 20 (/) 24 1, () 40 0.15 4 650 20 (/) 25 2, () 40 0.15 4 900 20 (/) 26 3, () 40 0.15 4 900 20 (/) 27 90 0.15 4 2000 2.49 28 90 0.15 4 2000 3.33 29 90 0.15 4 2000 3.33 30 90 0.58 2.4 2200 4.29 31 90 0.15 4 2000 2.49 32 90 0.15 4 2000 2.22 33 90 0.15 4 2000 2.22 34 90 0.15 4 2000 10.65 35 90 0.15 4 2000 4.96 36 90 0.15 4 2000-37 90 0.15 4 2000 6.77 38 90 0.15 4 2000 37.22 39 2 90 0.15 4 2000 3.55 40 90 0.15 4 2000 3.11
6. 주변도로현황정산 (2008) 2008, /., 26.4%, ±20.0%. < 표 40> 사업대상주변지역도로현황정산결과 (2008 년 ) (A) (B) ( : /) (%) (B-A)/A 00101 IC~JCT 6 55,768 64,132 15.0% 00102 JCT~IC 8 81,584 74,585-8.6% 00103 IC~IC 6 61,380 63,301 3.1% 7 35 55101 JCT~IC 4 74,278 74,965 0.9% 55102 IC~IC 4 65,833 74,798 13.6% 55103 IC~JCT 4 67,151 67,576 0.6% 0702-2 ~ 4 56,700 51,182-9.7% 9 ~ 4 42,795 47,638 11.3% 7 ~ 4 36,327 41,154 13.3% 3502-0 ➉ ~ 4 28,429 28,100-1.2% 1022 1022-03 35~ 4 18,844 22,347 18.6% 1077 1077-01 ~ 6 34,368 34,124-0.7% 1077-02 ~ 5 25,984 25,654-1.3% 1077-03 ~ 4 19,215 17,580-8.5% 1028 1028-01 ~35 2 6,141 6,450 5.0% 69 ~ 6 69,321 66,745-3.7% 33 ~ 6 57,431 59,840 4.2% 31 ~R 8 94,935 119,959 26.4% 896,484 940,130 4.9% :, 2008, 2009.2
42 부산지하철 1호선 양산연장 건설사업 예비타당성조사 [그림 7] 사업대상 주변지역 도로 현황 정산지점
7. 장래교통수요추정,. 가. 사업노선일일수요예측결과 1, 2016 42,608/ 2021 43,708/ 2036 41,556/, 2021 KTDB. < 표 41> 연도별총일일여객수요 (: /) 2019 2021 2026 2031 2036 42,608 43,708 43,028 42,052 41,556-0.15% 21,620 22,000 21,608 21,072 20,860-0.21% 20,988 21,708 21,420 20,980 20,696-0.08% 11,392 11,712 11,524 11,332 11,192-0.10% 10,864 11,216 10,968 10,724 10,548-0.17% 11,392 11,712 11,524 11,332 11,192-0.10% [ 그림 8] 연도별총일일여객수요
1,. 2019, 3,680/, 5,768/, 36,584 2008 2.03 /( KTDB ) 74,265/, 2 12.7%.,., 4,696/.,, 2 2,344/.,, 6,428/.,,, 4,304/. < 표 42> 연도별역별일일여객수요 (: /) 2019 10,864-10,864-10,088-112 10,752 276 9,812 1,908 2,556 10,216 1,772 1,800 10,088 3,680-4,356-3,620 3,304 10,532 2,148 3,424 10,116 5,768-6,728-1,344 3,688 8,188 3,352 1,388 11,392 4,696-5,076-3,012 3,456 7,744 3,856 3,392 9,428 2,344 4,524 2,172 4,676 872 4,760 3,856 5,556 896 8,964 6,428-5,656 - - 3,856-4,304-4,304 4,304-3,856-21,620 21,620 20,988 20,988 27,332 15,276 28,120 14,488
(: /) 2021 11,216-11,216-10,672-112 11,104 244 10,428 1,908 2,668 10,456 1,908 1,800 10,672 3,816-4,468-3,644 3,436 10,664 2,304 3,452 10,564 5,948-6,888-1,364 3,756 8,272 3,476 1,432 11,712 4,840-5,188-2,996 3,504 7,764 3,928 3,456 9,668 2,308 4,616 2,184 4,776 872 4,784 3,852 5,652 896 9,196 6,524-5,680 - - 3,852-4,440-4,440 4,440-3,852-22,000 22,000 21,708 21,708 27,988 15,720 28,504 15,204 (: /) 2026 10,968-10,968-10,396-108 10,860 240 10,156 1,888 2,604 10,252 1,844 1,784 10,396 3,732-4,388-3,600 3,368 10,484 2,240 3,428 10,336 5,840-6,796-1,344 3,712 8,116 3,404 1,432 11,524 4,748-5,144-2,952 3,440 7,628 3,816 3,504 9,552 2,276 4,492 2,172 4,772 856 4,676 3,808 5,652 876 9,240 6,508-5,552 - - 3,808-4,464-4,464 4,464-3,808-21,608 21,608 21,420 21,420 27,676 15,352 28,100 14,928 (: /) 2031 10,724-10,724-10,072-108 10,616 244 9,828 1,844 2,560 10,008 1,776 1,780 10,072 3,620-4,340-3,512 3,304 10,216 2,152 3,408 10,076 5,664-6,712-1,320 3,668 7,868 3,296 1,412 11,332 4,616-5,080-2,840 3,328 7,380 3,772 3,456 9,448 2,264 4,348 2,124 4,660 832 4,520 3,692 5,588 852 9,132 6,420-5,372 - - 3,692-4,396-4,396 4,396-3,692-21,072 21,072 20,980 20,980 27,088 14,964 27,564 14,488
(: /) 2036 10,548-10,548-9,864-108 10,440 216 9,648 1,864 2,536 9,876 1,736 1,784 9,864 3,600-4,320-3,516 3,264 10,128 2,128 3,408 9,912 5,644-6,672-1,324 3,624 7,828 3,252 1,412 11,192 4,576-5,036-2,796 3,328 7,296 3,732 3,396 9,352 2,220 4,308 2,104 4,620 812 4,456 3,652 5,520 832 9,016 6,332-5,288 - - 3,652-4,328-4,328 4,328-3,652-20,860 20,860 20,696 20,696 26,808 14,748 27,288 14,268 /,., 2, 2 1. < 표 43> 연도별역별 / 방향별환승일일여객수요 (: /) 2019 2021 2026 2031 2036(%) 1 10,752 11,104 10,860 10,616 10,440-0.17% 1 9,812 10,428 10,156 9,828 9,648-0.10% 2 2,140 2,140 2,080 1,984 1,964-0.50% 2 2,384 2,476 2,412 2,364 2,344-0.10% 2 2,452 2,520 2,564 2,516 2,476 0.06% 2 2,224 2,256 2,208 2,144 2,144-0.22%
나. 사업노선첨두수요예측결과 1) 첨두율산정 1, 2,3 2008. < 표 44> 부산지하철시간대별이용비율 1 2 3 01:00~02:00 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 02:00~03:00 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 03:00~04:00 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 04:00~05:00 0.03% 0.02% 0.01% 0.03% 05:00~06:00 1.05% 1.14% 1.38% 1.11% 06:00~07:00 2.03% 2.20% 2.57% 2.14% 07:00~08:00 5.04% 6.71% 7.33% 5.83% 08:00~09:00 7.50% 8.72% 9.92% 8.15% 09:00~10:00 5.40% 5.94% 6.75% 5.72% 10:00~11:00 4.86% 4.78% 5.34% 4.88% 11:00~12:00 5.31% 4.98% 5.31% 5.20% 12:00~13:00 5.79% 5.57% 5.61% 5.69% 13:00~14:00 6.32% 5.77% 5.89% 6.09% 14:00~15:00 6.19% 5.49% 5.48% 5.88% 15:00~16:00 6.44% 5.70% 5.40% 6.09% 16:00~17:00 6.93% 6.33% 5.95% 6.63% 17:00~18:00 8.03% 7.80% 7.45% 7.89% 18:00~19:00 9.72% 9.18% 8.91% 9.46% 19:00~20:00 6.28% 5.87% 5.33% 6.05% 20:00~21:00 4.41% 4.35% 3.79% 4.33% 21:00~22:00 3.81% 3.99% 3.34% 3.82% 22:00~23:00 3.09% 3.31% 2.73% 3.13% 23:00~24:00 1.71% 2.05% 1.40% 1.80% 24:00~01:00 0.06% 0.11% 0.12% 0.08% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% :,, 2009
2) 첨두수요예측결과 < 표 45> 연도별총첨두여객수요 (: /) 2019 2021 2026 2031 2036 4,030 4,134 4,070 3,979 3,930-0.15% 2,044 2,080 2,044 1,993 1,973-0.21% 1,986 2,054 2,026 1,986 1,957-0.09% 1,078 1,109 1,091 1,072 1,058-0.11% 1,028 1,061 1,037 1,014 998-0.17% 1,078 1,109 1,091 1,072 1,058-0.11% < 표 46> 연도별역별첨두여객수요 (: /) 2019 1,028-1,028-955 - 11 1,017 27 928 180 242 966 168 170 955 348 412 342 313 995 203 324 957 545 637 127 349 773 317 131 1,078 444 480 285 327 731 365 321 892 222 428 206 442 82 450 363 526 85 848 608 535-363 - 407-407 407 363 2,044 2,044 1,986 1,986 2,585 1,445 2,660 1,370 (: /) 2021 1,061-1,061-1,010-11 1,050 24 986 180 252 989 180 170 1,010 360 422 345 325 1,009 218 327 1,000 563 652 129 355 783 329 135 1,109 458 490 283 331 735 372 327 915 218 437 206 452 82 453 364 535 85 870 617 538-364 - 420-420 420 364 2,080 2,080 2,054 2,054 2,647 1,487 2,696 1,438
(: /) 2026 1,037-1,037-984 - 10 1,027 23 961 179 246 970 174 169 984 353 415 341 319 992 212 324 979 553 643 127 351 768 322 135 1,091 449 486 279 325 722 361 331 904 215 425 205 451 81 442 361 535 83 874 616 525-361 - 422-422 422 361 2,044 2,044 2,026 2,026 2,618 1,452 2,658 1,412 (: /) 2031 1,014-1,014-954 - 10 1,004 24 930 174 242 946 168 168 954 342 410 332 313 965 204 322 954 536 635 125 347 743 312 134 1,072 437 481 269 315 697 357 327 894 215 411 201 441 79 428 348 529 81 864 608 509-348 - 416-416 416 348 1,993 1,993 1,986 1,986 2,564 1,415 2,608 1,371 (: /) 2036 998-998 - 932-10 988 19 913 176 240 934 164 169 932 340 409 333 309 958 201 322 937 534 631 125 343 740 308 134 1,058 433 477 264 315 689 353 321 884 210 407 199 437 77 421 345 522 79 852 599 500-345 - 409-409 409 345 1,973 1,973 1,957 1,957 2,535 1,395 2,580 1,350
3. 지역간이용분포분석, 35.7%, 62.5%.,,,. < 표 47> 지역간이용수요권역구분 ( ),,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, < 표 48> 지역간이용수요분포 (2019 년 ) (: /) - 245 244 7 45 7 27 575 222 2,990 3,496 1,595 2,502 979 394 12,178 258 3,991 3,757 2,763 2,174 1,853 539 15,335 6 1,006 3,213 14 - - 31 4,270 26 1,646 3,497 - - - 126 5,295-635 2,670 - - - 111 3,416 30 418 587 39 118 273 74 1,539 542 10,931 17,464 4,418 4,839 3,112 1,302 42,608-0.58% 0.57% 0.02% 0.11% 0.02% 0.06% 1.35% 0.52% 7.02% 8.21% 3.74% 5.87% 2.30% 0.92% 28.58% 0.61% 9.37% 8.82% 6.48% 5.10% 4.35% 1.27% 35.99% 0.01% 2.36% 7.54% 0.03% - - 0.07% 10.02% 0.06% 3.86% 8.21% - - - 0.30% 12.43% - 1.49% 6.27% - - - 0.26% 8.02% 0.07% 0.98% 1.38% 0.09% 0.28% 0.64% 0.17% 3.61% 1.27% 25.65% 40.99% 10.37% 11.36% 7.30% 3.06% 100.0%
4. 장래수단별분담율산정결과., 24,000/, 0.03~0.04%. < 표 49> 장래첨두시간대수단별통행량예측 2019 2021 2026 2031 2036 1,920,586 1,930,082 1,909,312 1,875,824 1,835,240 (/) (%) (/) (%) 1,351,844 1,357,649 1,335,864 1,304,959 1,268,364 733,199 739,325 720,792 696,906 665,943 328,108 327,334 317,902 306,401 294,938 4,333,737 4,354,390 4,283,870 4,184,090 4,064,485 44.32% 44.32% 44.57% 44.83% 45.15% 31.19% 31.18% 31.18% 31.19% 31.21% 16.92% 16.98% 16.83% 16.66% 16.38% 7.57% 7.52% 7.42% 7.32% 7.26% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 1,919,525 1,929,001 1,908,245 1,874,777 1,834,201 1,351,479 1,357,276 1,335,496 1,304,598 1,268,005 734,740 740,894 722,340 698,424 667,451 327,994 327,220 317,790 306,290 294,828 4,333,738 4,354,391 4,283,870 4,184,089 4,064,484 44.29% 44.30% 44.54% 44.81% 45.13% 31.19% 31.17% 31.17% 31.18% 31.20% 16.95% 17.01% 16.86% 16.69% 16.42% 7.57% 7.51% 7.42% 7.32% 7.25% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
< 표 50> 장래비첨두시간대수단별통행량예측 2019 2021 2026 2031 2036 1,319,486 1,326,015 1,311,744 1,288,735 1,260,853 (/) (%) (/) (%) 928,811 932,808 917,841 896,608 871,467 503,615 507,809 495,079 478,672 457,401 225,414 224,882 218,403 210,501 202,626 2,977,326 2,991,515 2,943,067 2,874,516 2,792,346 44.32% 44.33% 44.57% 44.83% 45.15% 31.20% 31.18% 31.19% 31.19% 31.21% 16.92% 16.97% 16.82% 16.65% 16.38% 7.57% 7.52% 7.42% 7.32% 7.26% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 1,318,780 1,325,299 1,311,035 1,288,041 1,260,165 928,563 932,557 917,593 896,365 871,226 504,646 508,854 496,111 479,683 458,404 225,337 224,805 218,327 210,426 202,552 2,977,326 2,991,515 2,943,066 2,874,516 2,792,347 44.29% 44.30% 44.55% 44.81% 45.13% 31.19% 31.17% 31.18% 31.18% 31.20% 16.95% 17.01% 16.86% 16.69% 16.42% 7.57% 7.51% 7.42% 7.32% 7.25% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
< 표 51> 장래일일수단별통행량예측 2019 2021 2026 2031 2036 30,051,808 30,200,478 29,875,460 29,351,433 28,716,409 (/) (%) (/) (%) 21,153,639 21,244,631 20,903,744 20,420,161 19,847,561 11,470,700 11,566,308 11,276,353 10,902,661 10,418,188 5,133,905 5,121,799 4,974,227 4,794,264 4,614,902 67,810,052 68,133,216 67,029,785 65,468,519 63,597,060 44.32% 44.33% 44.57% 44.83% 45.15% 31.20% 31.18% 31.19% 31.19% 31.21% 16.92% 16.98% 16.82% 16.65% 16.38% 7.57% 7.52% 7.42% 7.32% 7.26% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 30,035,589 30,184,009 29,859,166 29,335,473 28,700,582 21,147,986 21,238,877 20,898,070 20,414,603 19,842,037 11,494,338 11,590,300 11,300,054 10,925,884 10,441,243 5,132,149 5,120,043 4,972,484 4,792,554 4,613,201 67,810,062 68,133,229 67,029,774 65,468,513 63,597,063 44.29% 44.30% 44.55% 44.81% 45.13% 31.19% 31.17% 31.18% 31.18% 31.20% 16.95% 17.01% 16.86% 16.69% 16.42% 7.57% 7.51% 7.42% 7.32% 7.25% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
,, 2019 7.78%.,, 96.3%, 96.6%, 95.8%. < 표 52> 장래양산시수단별통행량예측 2019 2021 2026 2031 2036 356,016 355,617 351,723 343,408 339,092 127,646 128,681 127,698 125,165 123,803 23,355 24,202 23,545 22,829 22,684 (/) 38,943 38,439 37,933 37,078 36,643 545,960 546,939 540,899 528,480 522,222 342,824 342,291 338,521 330,476 326,254 123,367 124,347 123,415 120,975 119,636 42,459 43,493 42,650 41,542 41,272 (/) 37,309 36,808 36,312 35,486 35,060 545,960 546,939 540,899 528,480 522,222 62.79% 62.58% 62.58% 62.53% 62.47% 22.60% 22.74% 22.82% 22.89% 22.91% 7.78% 7.95% 7.89% 7.86% 7.90% (%) 6.83% 6.73% 6.71% 6.71% 6.71% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% < 표 53> 도시철도운행권역수단별분담율비교결과 342,824 2,229,437 6,552,393 1,676,456 1,689,544 123,367 2,301,838 7,704,680 1,240,803 862,542 42,459 720,178 5,511,256 347,446 286,848 (/) 37,309 904,398 1,848,634 376,124 408,250 545,960 6,155,851 21,616,963 3,640,829 3,247,184 62.79% 36.22% 30.31% 46.05% 52.03% 22.60% 37.39% 35.64% 34.08% 26.56% 7.78% 11.70% 25.50% 9.54% 8.83% (%) 6.83% 14.69% 8.55% 10.33% 12.57% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% :, 2019,.
5. 영향권역지하철이용수요예측결과 1, 2. 2008 2019,, 1 2,., 18,876/ 12,832/, 5,544/ 4,608/,. < 표 54> 영향권역부산지하철이용수요예측결과 2019 2008 18,534 17,356 18,876 18,268 12,832 13,180 1 50 79 60 91 63 93 15,316 13,142 14,644 14,712 15,336 15,440 7,970 6,387 8,524 7,140 8,700 7,296 4,528 4,320 5,544 5,524 4,608 4,696 1,354 1,215 2,644 2,384 2,756 2,516 - - 3,240 2,956 3,480 3,196 2 - - 2,028 1,852 2,120 1,944 1,553 2,210 1,716 2,392 1,916 2,512 3,707 2,600 3,820 2,944 3,840 2,964 - - - - - - :.
56 부산지하철 1호선 양산연장 건설사업 예비타당성조사 [그림 9] 영향권역 부산지하철 이용수요 비교역사 6. 주변 도로 수요예측결과 주변도로 수요예측결과, 현황과 비교하여 2019년 교통량이 큰 폭으로 증가되는 것으로 나타났으며, 이는 양산 물금신도시, 사송지구 등의 택지개발사업과 산 업단지사업의 완공으로 인한 유발통행량이 증가되었기 때문인 것으로 판단됨. 사업시행시의 경우 대부분의 구간에서 사업미시행시 대비 이용대수가 약 천대 수준 감소하는 것으로 나타나 합리적인 방향으로 분석됨. 특히, 부산시 금정구 방면에서 양산시로 접근하는 도로인 지방도 1077호선의 경우 부산~웅상구간의 이용대수가 사업시행시 약 4,500대 수준으로 감소폭이 가장 높은 것으로 나타났음.
< 표 55> 장래영향권도로의교통량변화 ( 사업미시행시 ) ( : /) 2008 2019 2021 2026 2031 2036 IC~JCT 6 64,132 86,521 87,903 87,364 86,471 86,392 JCT~IC 8 74,585 107,766 111,068 112,717 114,922 116,842 IC~IC 6 63,301 89,226 91,718 92,992 94,975 96,052 JCT~IC 4 74,965 105,683 110,187 113,227 116,767 119,029 7 35 IC~IC 4 74,798 105,683 110,187 113,231 116,767 119,029 IC~JCT 4 67,576 86,909 90,399 91,731 93,831 96,077 ~ 4 51,182 69,513 70,473 70,812 71,408 71,488 ~ 4 47,638 59,540 60,291 59,106 56,960 56,329 ~ 4 41,154 66,758 68,411 68,027 67,309 67,668 ~ 4 28,100 37,518 35,748 36,608 36,658 37,518 1022 35~ 4 22,347 26,918 27,089 27,815 27,874 28,450 ~ 6 34,124 44,874 45,484 45,054 44,143 43,910 1077 ~ 5 25,654 28,968 28,914 28,877 28,417 28,722 ~ 4 17,580 23,132 23,241 23,508 23,520 23,550 1028 ~35 2 6,450 9,777 9,756 9,869 9,819 9,794 ~ 6 66,745 69,768 69,046 66,733 63,689 62,337 ~ 6 59,840 60,483 60,024 58,003 56,108 55,060 ~R 8 119,959 126,204 128,258 127,294 126,054 124,539
< 표 56> 장래영향권도로의교통량변화 ( 사업시행시 ) ( : /) 2008 2019 2021 2026 2031 2036 IC~JCT 6 64,132 85,486 87,085 86,408 85,498 85,477 JCT~IC 8 74,585 106,476 109,899 111,745 113,991 115,523 IC~IC 6 63,301 89,197 91,606 92,879 94,816 95,893 JCT~IC 4 74,965 104,990 109,273 112,325 115,915 118,119 7 35 IC~IC 4 74,798 104,994 109,277 112,325 115,919 118,119 IC~JCT 4 67,576 86,984 90,629 91,618 93,301 95,083 ~ 4 51,182 69,517 70,503 70,841 71,505 71,588 ~ 4 47,638 59,465 60,037 58,926 56,918 56,258 ~ 4 41,154 66,299 68,002 67,706 66,992 67,263 ~ 4 28,100 37,481 35,694 36,562 36,633 37,577 1022 35~ 4 22,347 26,705 26,855 27,319 27,415 27,870 ~ 6 34,124 40,503 41,037 40,645 40,006 39,760 1077 ~ 5 25,654 28,684 28,555 28,584 28,087 28,426 ~ 4 17,580 21,750 21,896 22,168 22,197 22,230 1028 ~35 2 6,450 9,272 9,251 9,360 9,301 9,293 ~ 6 66,745 69,250 68,424 66,219 63,205 61,873 ~ 6 59,840 60,074 59,682 57,715 55,745 54,768 ~R 8 119,959 126,267 128,325 127,223 125,574 124,468
7. 이용수요의적정성검토결과 3,905/, 3(4,250/). < 표 57> 양산선이용수요의적정성검토 ( : ) 1 2 3 7 34 39 16 2005-424,709 232,723 46,827 2006-388,755 222,157 55,852 2007-374,617 214,872 61,277 2008 27,332 395,654 238,078 67,994 2005-12,491 5,967 2,927 2006-11,434 5,696 3,491 2007-11,018 5,510 3,830 2008 3,905 11,637 6,105 4,250 : 2019 [ 그림 10] 역사별평균이용수요비교
아. 예비타당성기초조사와의비교,,. 2009., 2014 KTDB 2016, 2020 2021 2030. < 표 58> 2009 년예비타당성기초조사와의이용수요비교 2009 2008 2008 2008 KTDB ( 2006) 2009 KTDB ( 2008) 5 19 () 2014 : 15,445/ 2020 : 56,507/ 2030 : 59,372/ 2019 : 42,608/ 2021 : 43,708/ 2031 : 42,052/ KTDB, 2006 KTDB (, 2008) 2008 KTDB (, 2008),.
, KTDB,. 2011. < 표 59> 부산울산권 KTDB 자료비교 - 양산시발생통행량 (2006 KTDB, 2008) (2008 KTDB, 2009) ( : /) 2006 1) 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 /2008 343 448 515 516 509 499 493 346 394 503 507 501 489 484 1) 2006 KTDB, 2008 2008 KTDB, 2009,,,,.,,,. < 표 60> 2009 년예비타당성기초조사와의역별이용수요비교 (: /) 2009 (2020 ) (2021 ) 11,227 7,590 11,216 10,672 1,833 1,893 3,816 4,468 3,378 3,490 5,948 6,888 6,586 7,325 4,840 5,188 19,622 23,728 6,924 6,960 3,340 3,009 6,524 5,680 10,521 9,473 4,440 3,852 56,507 56,507 43,708 43,708
제 Ⅴ 장편익산정 1. 편익추정결과,,,. < 표 61> 편익항목별목표년도별산정결과 (: ) 2019 2021 2026 2031 2036 201.2 203.4 203.4 195.6 198.3 318.3 328.2 324.8 314.7 317.6-90.6-100.6-95.9-90.3-89.4 227.7 227.7 229.0 224.4 228.1 22.4 22.6 22.6 21.7 21.6-5.3-5.6-5.4-5.2-5.1 17.1 17.0 17.2 16.5 16.6 24.7 25.1 23.4 19.4 21.7 16.3 16.4 16.3 15.9 15.8 486.9 489.5 489.2 471.9 480.4 2013~2018 6 1077, 2. < 표 62> 공사중부 (`-) 의편익 (: ) 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018-1.81-1.82-1.82-1.83-1.83-1.84-8.32-8.32-8.31-8.30-8.29-8.28-10.14-10.13-10.13-10.12-10.12-10.11
2. 편익추정결과의적정성 가. 통행거리분석.,.,,.,, (,,,, ) 20.41km, 5.97km.. 나. 통행시간분석 2019 14 28. < 표 63> 양산시와부산시간여객통행량 (2019 년기준 ) 371,509 142,771 514,280 138,262 6,351,644 6,489,906 509,771 6,494,415 7,004,186 :
< 표 64> 양산시와부산시간화물통행량 (2019 년기준 ) 1,357 12,874 14,231 10,356 170,782 181,138 11,713 183,656 195,369 : (,,,, ), 1.42. < 표 65> 양산시역세권역과부산시간통행시간 (2019 년기준 ) () 33.27 49.69 62.56 (A, ) 48.51 () 31.83 48.29 61.14 (B, ) 47.09 (A-B, ) 1.42 1.5/, 17.6/, 1.0/, 250., 5. < 표 66> 수단별분담율및통행시간가치 (/) 2,152,432 162,368 507,666 2,822,466 76.3% 5.8% 18.0% 100.2% 2007 9,497 64,870 16,571 2008 9,989 68,229 17,429 14,677 :, (5), 2008.12., 2009 (,, ), 2009.12.
제 Ⅵ 장경제성분석 1. 경제성분석 1) 경제성분석기법 / (Benefit Cost Ratio; B/C),. / 1. / ( ), () () (Net Present Value, NPV) 0. ( ) (Internal Rate of Return, IRR) 0,. ( )
/,,. < 표 67> 경제성분석기법의비교 / (B/C) B/C1,, (IRR) IRRr (NPV) NPV0 2) 경제성분석결과 (5), 2008, 5.5%., 1 B/C 0.89. < 표 68> 경제성분석결과 (:, %) B/C NPV IRR 1 4,579 4,072 0.89-507 4.3% 2 4,473 4,072 0.91-402 4.6%
제 Ⅶ 장정책적분석 1. 지역균형발전 가. 지역낙후도 16 8, 16 9, 8, 168 14, 35,. < 표 72> 시 도별지역낙후도지표별순위 1 1 11 8 1 13 1 7 1 1 1 () 14 9 2 15 5 9 2 5 8 () 10 7 6 3 4 6 5 3 5 (, ) 5 5 4 12 9 5 6 6 6 8 10 5 10 2 2 3 8 7 2 14 3 2 3 4 4 4 4 () 3 1 8 1 13 1 7 7 2 1 4 9 5 8 3 8 2 3 12 15 16 7 7 12 16 14 14 9 6 14 9 14 11 14 12 11 6 11 11 11 11 14 9 9 12 15 13 12 14 6 13 11 15 15 16 12 13 16 15 16 13 16 16 13 3 15 8 16 15 15 13 13 7 2 10 6 12 10 12 11 9 4 16 7 4 10 8 10 10 10 :,,,.
< 표 73> 지역낙후도지표순위 ( 시 군단위 ),, 50 (0.117) (0.063) (0.089) (0.044) (0.291) (0.131) (0.124) (0.142) 79 54 5 74 110 8 20 7 0 14 16 19 32 16 44 38 71 64 2 35 : 1) 168.,. 2) 8 168. 나. 지역경제파급효과 1 1 2,473, 2 2,409. 1 0.2033%, 2 0.1981%, 2007 40 0.17796%. < 표 74> 지역경제활성화효과 1 2 (: ) 3,276.9 593.1 3,870.0 3,192.0 577.8 3,769.8, 1,711.6 761.4 2,473.1 1,667.4 741.6 2,409.0, 671,935.6 544,357.0 1,216,292.6 671,935.6 544,357.0 1,216,292.6 (GRDP, 2008 ) 0.2547% 0.1133% 0.2033% 0.2481% 0.1362% 0.1981% : 1) 2008. 2) AHP GRDP. 3) 2007 40 0.17796%.
2. 정책의일관성및추진의지 가. 관련계획및정책방향과의일치성, 4,. 2016, 2020 ~. 2020 (2000~2020), (2002~2011)1,2., ~. 나. 사업의추진의지및선호도,,. 1 2,.,.
2 ~,., 1 2,.,,. 3. 사업추진상의위험요소가재원조달가능성 2009~2013 SOC 17.121.5 11,382~15,898 6.6~7.9%, (60%) 3,113 2010~2013 1 1 0.21~1.13%. 2 (2005~2009) 2009 2 3(~) 2012, 2 3 ~ 2012., 2010, 2010 11,492, 2009~2012 (, 2009) 11,382 2009 2010.
7.2~12.6% 6,578~10,167, 1 1 0.03~0.26%., 5 60% 3 2 2009, 2013,. 22~31% 1,358~1,871, 1 2010 2012 0.72~2.31%, 2013 6.80%., 2 (~) 5%., 1,. 나. 환경성평가,.,,.,,,,.,.
,. (),.,,..,,,. 다. 단선철도운영,.,. 1 9.5.,,. < 표 75> 광역도시철도열차운행현황 1 2 3 1 2 () 32.5 45.2 18.1 28.3 29.0 22.9 20.5 20.5 14.35 () 34 43 17 30 26 23 20 22 7 () 6.0 6.5 7.0 7.0 7.0 10.0 10.0 10.0 9.5 R/H() 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 6.0 9.5 (/h) 31.5 32.3 31.9 30.8 34.3 31.9 34 31.6 32.56
제 Ⅶ 장종합평가및정책제언 2004~2008 3.67%,., 1., 2019 42,608/, 27,332 /, 15,276/, 3,905/ 3(4,250/). 2021 43,708/,. KTDB 2021., 1 B/C 0.89..,,,,,., 0.2033%, 0.1981% 2007 40 0.17796%., 8 16 8 9, 168 14, 35.,
, 2016, 2020, 2020 (2000~2020), (2002~2011)1, 2.,,,. 2010~2013 0.21~1.13%, 0.03~0.26%. 1 2010 2012 0.72~2.31%, 2013 6.80% 5%., 1,.,,,,. 1 9.5,.,
. < 표 76> 예비타당성조사결과요약 (: ) ~ ( ~~) L=14.6km L=14.069km 4,827 ( 507.0 ) 4,959 ( 405.6 ) 2009~20149(3, 6) : 2019 : :,, K-AGT () K-AGT () B/C 1.013 0.89 AHP - 0.501 : B/C.