2004 4
10 ( 2 ), GDP 5,560 (2003 ) GDP( ) 1 GDP GDP(PPP*) 1 PPP 107 328 k 5,560 520 2 4,885 2,042 1,093 508 *Purchasing Power Parity : IMF, 585 1/45
1, 3 FDI Confidence 6, 4 FDI Confidence Index (, 10 ) 500 400 300 200 100 0-100 0 20 40 60 80 100 (1 GDP, 100 ) : 3, FDI Confidence 1,000 Survey : AT Kearney, 2003 : 2004 2000 : IMF Data Base 2/45
1991 6% 2001, 2002 4% 2003 (%) 8 6 4 2 (PPP) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) 0 0 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 (10 ) 3,000 2,000 1,000 GDP 2003 2 6,890,, 4 - GDP 5,560 40% ( 90 ) 1990 IT 2003-2003 7~9 84%, 10~12 104% : IMF 3/45
GDP 60% 50% (%) 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 GDP 1994/95 1996/97 1998/99 2000/2001 2002/2003 GDP 2002/2003 62% - 40~50% 10 -,,,, TV, : : 4/45
vs (1) 2 - * - GDP (, ) - 1 GDP 106 5,560 520 127 1 3,720 1,061 - - 2030, ( 230 ) ** - /GDP 266 (, %) - 505-148 510 3,257 1,432 -,, - WTO -, - - -,, FTA - - - - : * 2003, ** 2002, 3 : IMF, LG 5/45
vs (2) (%) 12 35 06 ( : %) 30 25 20 213 ( : %) 15 65 5 71 10 5 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 44 : 2001~2015, 65 2001 : World Development Indicators 2003 : 2003 9, : Citigroup, 2004 19, 2034, 6/45
168%(2002 339%),, (%) 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 1993/94 ( ) 2001/02 ( ) ( ) : GDP : (%) 10,, 8 6 4 2 0 - IT,,, -, - 1998 25 2002 91 36 - IT 15 12 (Business Week, 2003 Dec8) - McKinsey IT Service back office 2008 5, 570, 400 7/45
1 GDP (, %) 12 10 8 6 Delhi Pondicherry Chandigarh Goa 62% 4 2 Assam 0 17,978 (1, ) 0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 Delhi Chandigarh Punjab Haryana Uttar Pradesh Himachal Pradesh Rajasthan 38,864 48,974 25,652 24,575 9,749 11,718 13,825 ( :, 1$ = 488Rs) Anhra Pradesh Kerala Karnataka Pondicherry Tamil Nadu 17,642 21,310 18,324 34,680 21,239 : 1994~2002, 1 2002 Maharashtra 24,736 West Bengal 17,769 : Goa 46,356 Assam 10,951 Gujarat 21,276 Meghalaya 15,070, Madhya Pradesh 18,920 Orissa 10,234 IT Bihar 5,466 - :,,, - :, : Delhi, Himachal Pradesh 2000//2001 - :, IT 2001/2002 2001 - : :, 8/45
,,,,, (), ( ) 600 400 200 0-200 1985 1990 1995 2000 2003 66 50 47 38 119 107 173 ( : %) (ASEAN) ( ) ( ) OPEC ( ) ( ) (EU) ( : %) 0 10 20 30 40 50 104 70 54 43 19 11 319 ( : %) : (4 ~3 ) 2003 1/4~3/4, 1/4~3/4 :, Economic Survey 2003 / KOTIS 9/45
30~40,, FDI FDI (%) ( ) 160 120 80 40 ( ) ( ) 4,500 3,600 2,700 1,800 49 41 40 36 94 133 250 ( : %) 0 900 FDI -40 0 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 : : FDI Maharashtra 1736%(12884 ), Delhi 1195%(9558 ), Tamil Nadu 835%(6271 ), Karnataka 830%(6069 ), Gujarat 655%(4800 ) 54 74 65 99 197 ( : %) : 2003 6, : 271 10/45
(1) 2003 13, - ( ) 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 (2003 ) 2,853 1,102 972 285 210 142 80 41 8 8 5 1061 1622 1478 49 398 9 57 263 17 212 605 ( :, %) 1,233 424 263 171 131 145 23 25 31 13 6-13 03 1-224 806-99 -326 454-115 -334 27 2003 13, 2003 1061% 1~2 231%, 70%, 2003 493% 1~2 319% 11/45
(2) 1990 IMF 1999 ( ) 16 12 ( ) 160 120 ( : ) ( ) 8 80 405,919 32,542 73,395 4,071 5,988 419 6,597 1,352 491,899 38,384 4 40 1,364 23 1,711 15 3,113 0 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 0 439,825 77,489 8,118 7,964 533,396 : : 2003 1,600 12 3 1, 2 : 2003 : LG 1 1, 2 12/45
(1) 6% IT ( : 10 ) 8412 (%) 75 Merrill Lynch 5561 61 70 65 60 Citi JP Morgan LG 2003 2010 55 2004 2006 2008 2010 :, 2004 ADB IT 2010 8,412 (1996~97 ) 2003 25 2010 37 5~6% IT 7~8% 2004~2010 61% 13/45
(2) 2010 1997, 2030 GDP (10 ) 1,500 1,200 900 600 300 1995 2004 1997 2006 1999 2008 2003 2001 2010 (10 ) 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 : IMF, LG : Goldman Sachs, Dreaming With BRICs, 200310 2003 1994, 2010 1996~97 2010 2010 1 2030, 2 14/45
1 - (1) 3~4 10% 1 2~3 (2003 ) (2003 ) 1 ( ) (%) ( ) ( ) ( : ) 3000 10% 11 32 53 11 335 318 312 35 8337 7939 7764 871 7,801 2,476 1,453 815 700 1500 : World Bank GDP IMF (2003 ) : The World Bank, 2003 World Development Outlook IMF, World Economic Outlook Data Base 1995 2001 2006 : : National Council of Applied Economic Research 3~4 1991 IT 15/45
1 - (2), 2003~2008 12% CAGR(%) ( : 10 ) 20,602 123 ( : ) 11,526 2,039 1,681 2,042 3,726 2,038 2,168-218 2,409 2,157 2,560 4,599 3,838 4,451 5,894 1,820 177 180 169 96-22 23 13 14 22 25 73 60 38 80 41 2003 2008 2003 2008 : 2003 2,500 20084,071 Merrill Lynch(2003 8), LG 16/45
1 - (3) 6 10% -,, -,, - C-TV,,,, -, - -, - - - IT, - IT -, 17/45
1 - (4) 1937 Colgate 50%, Colgate Colgate Palmolive India Colgate Palmolive India ( : 100 ) - 1937 51% - Premium Brand 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006-270 - - ( ), Net Sales (%) Net Profit (%) 11,131 10, 178 10, 158 10, 736 11, 433-02 698 180-86 886 269-02 1,002 131 57 1,097 95 65 1,257 145-2003 492%, 299%(india Infoline ) ROE(%) ROA(%) 257 192 314 246 340 253 356 264 387 281-45% (Morgan Stanley) 6, : 3 31 : Morgan Stanley, 2004 312 18/45
1 (1) 6, 2001/1980 2010/2001 161 83 225 ( : 100 ) 55-48 5 37-38, 6 43-48 - 9 (10 ), 2 - : US$35~50 - : US$50~75 - : US$60~100 - : US$80~150 - : US$125~300 - : US$250~450 - : US$500~750 : :, - 14 30 ( ) 15 15 - (SEZ), - 19/45
1 (2),,, Madhya Pradesh 1 Maharashtra( ) 7 Haryana( ) 2 Andhra Pradesh( ) 8 Madhya Pradesh( ) 3 Karnataka( ) 9 Rajasthan( ) 4 Gujarat( ) 10 Himachal Pradesh( ) 5 Tamil Nadu( ) 11 West Bengal( ) 6 Punjab( ) 15 Uttar Pradesh( ) : BT-Gallup 2003, Madhya Pradesh Maharashtra, Gujarat, Tamil Nadu, West Bengal, Noida, Madhya Pradesh - -, -, -,, 20/45
1 (3) 50% Maruti Udyog - 1982 Maruti Udyog 26% - 89 40%, 92 50%, 2002 542% -, 370 150 - -,, 10~15,,, -, -, - ( 80% ) 352 (%) ( : 10 ) 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 05 11 (%) 1545 ROIC(%) EPS( ) * 151 322 362 29 28 71 514 469 296 82 1929 255 1987 544 158 132 610 439 3195 593 90 166 258 607 4075 : 3 31 * : UBS, 2003 213 21/45
1 IT(1),,, SWOT Strengths Weaknesses - 2- IT, - IT - 2010-600 -, - ( 1/6, - 1/10, 1/8) GE - () 1,800 (1/4 ), DVD - GE, 34 Opportunities - IT - IT - IT,,, Threats - - - AMEX -, - OEM : Business Week, 2003 Dec 8 22/45
1 IT(2) STPI (Software Technology Park India) IT STPI ( : ) Bangalore 1997/98 1998/99 1999/00 2000/01 110 1700 2888 4321 7475 96 83 Chennai 394 748 1890 2956 28 34 16 Hyderabad Noida 274 429 574 1346 1059 2450 1990 4350 Mahara -shtra DeLhi West Bengal Hyderabad Bangalore Chennai : STPI : NASSCOM 2002 8 STPI 37 STPI 70% 1, - Delhi, Maharashtra Mumbai, West Bengal - Bangalore, Chennai, Hyderabad IT 23/45
1 - (1) 31, 1,500, SAARC FTA Sub Regional - 1985 SAARC(South Asia Association of Regional Cooperation), -, - 1995 SAPTA(South Asia Preferential Trade Arrangement) - SAFTA(South Asian Free Trade Area) -,,, SASEC(South Asia Sub-Regional Cooperation) GDP(10 ) 536 (100 ) 1 GDP( ) (%) 1456 368 59 258 1490 229 727 488 177 1501 202 881 3407 440 270 319 847 : IMF 2003, Bhutan, Maldives 1,500, 31,, 24/45
1 - (2) ASEAN,,, ( ) 9,000 6,000 3,000 0 ASEAN 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 ASEAN 1997 ASEAN ASEAN ASEAN FTA - 2003 ASEAN FTA ASEAN 2011 ASEAN ( ) 2016 - ASEAN, - Look East ASEAN ASEAN, FTA, 30,,, 25/45
2 -,, - 3-2003 4, - 2004 1 - -, - (NPT) 196711,,,, - NPT - 1998 -, - - ( ), ( ) -,, - 1962, 1998-2000 2003 6-26/45
2, - 1991, - - 57 - - -, -, - 60%, 80% 70%, 59%, 55%, 25% -,,, - 2003 5%, 1%, 27/45
2 - OECD : 11 5,000 3 - Goldman Sachs : 2010 9,290, 2020 21, 2030 49-2002 108% -, -, - - 2002 100 20 -,, -, -,, 28/45
2 IT WTO - 25%, TV Set 30%, 15%(kg ), 30%, 40%, 30%, 30%,,, - - IT - IT - - - - 29/45
2 (1) 1,000 2003 12 704, 28%(2002 3 ) ( ) 120,000 90,000 60,000 30,000 0-4,000 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 : : ( ) 2,000 0-2,000-6,000 ( ), BB+ B+ A- BB B B A-2 B BBB- A-3 A+ A-1 : S&P 2 18 BB BBB B B A-3 B BBB- A-3 B+ BB+ A- B B A-2 25 30/45
2 (2),, (Rs/US$) 200 150 (1995=100) 60 50 40 Citigroup ( : Rs/US$) 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 480 483 455 450 445 100 30 Merrill Lynch 488 474 445 420 420 50 20 10 Morgan Stanley 477 484 460 452-0 0 1985 1991 1997 2003 : 2003 10 : 2003 10 10246 : Merrill Lynch, : Citigroup, India Macro scope, 2004 3 16 Merrill Lynch, India Economics, 2004 3 1 Morgan Stanley, India Strategy Chartbook, 200312, 31/45
1 (1) AV C-TV TV 1998~2002 68% ( ) 200 CAGR(%) 183 AV ( : 10 ) TV CTV VCR 160 120 80 40 0 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 373 213 29 106 19 104 49 : : Ministry of Communications & Information Technology 68 AV 2000 2001 2002 42 38 31 57 60 75 60 60 55 140 140 110 3 27 32 : Ministry of Communications & Information Technology TV VCR C-TV 20%, FPD(Flat Panel Display) TV 2003 40, MP3, CD, DVD C-TV CPT, LCD 0% 32/45
1 (2) AV(Audio & Visual)2010 10%, Flat TV AV (10 ) 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 108% 75 170 223% 4 20 2002 2010 147% 20 60 CTV (Flat TV) CD Player,,,, IT - PC, : LG 33/45
1 (3), 2010 10%, - 15% - (2004~2010) - 10% - 3~4kg - 20024~20033 106%, 20034~ 200311 274% - - 5~10% - - 185~300-2001 60 2002 74 24% (Hitachi ) - 15~20% - - :,, Hitachi 34/45
1 (4) 2000, () 25 20 15 10 5 0 GSM CDMA 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 751 GSM 626 CDMA 125 1,394 GSM 1,269 CDMA 125 GSM CDMA 2003 2004 13 12 01 2,062 1,250 812 3,457 2,519 938 32 23 09 2005 2,454 1,296 1,158 5,911 3,815 2,096 54 35 19 2006 2,692 1,350 1,342 ( :, %) 2007 2,763 1,399 1,364 8,602 11,365 5,164 6,563 3,438 5,802 77 46 31 101 58 43 2008 2,419 1,375 1,044 13,784 7,938 5,846 120 69 51 : COAI, JP Morgan : Morgan Stanley, December 24, 2003 2000 5~6%, 70~100% 2003 12 26%, 5%( 10% 2 ) 1,500 ~ 2,000, 2010 1 35/45
1 (5) 10,, - 10 - IT - - 6 -, - - 36/45
2 (1) LG,, TV SONY, Panasonic LG Whirlpool, Electrolux C-TV LG BPL 48 132 130 ( : %) 201 Whirlpool LG Electrolux BPL 71 544 991 800 ( : ) Onida 110 101 LG 430 Samsung Videocon Sansui Philips 71 77 70 37 62 55 109 149 20024~11 1999 Whirlpool Electrolux LG Hitachi Whirlpool 52 284 25 86 ( : ) 280 ( : ) : SONY 3%, Panasonic 15% : ORG, 2002 : LG2003, Whirlpool, BPL, Hitachi 2002 Electlux 2001 : Indiainfoline 37/45
2 (2) BPL, Videocon, Onida SANYO Panasonic JVC - 1 BPL - BPL 1 - Videocon - Videocon - Onida SONY Hitachi - - FPD(Flat Panel Display) TV - - 2003 - SANYO Premium BPL Panasonic, JVC, FTA 38/45
2 (3) Konka, TCL, Whirlpool Konka TCL - Hotline, Wittis SKD TV Hotline 14, - - Baron 50 50 - TCL, 25, 29 TV - Whirlpool 145 2002 248 2839 9915 2001 54 2563 131 8993 2000 07 2328 38 8794 1999 2002/ 99( ) 0068 2413 0032 8291 ( : ) 3647 12 4531 12 LG Whirlpool,,, 39/45
1 (1) 1, 10 ( : ) 1999 2000 2001 2005 (2000~2005) 1 LD/LLD 688 439 528-89 915 602 582 20 915 674 652 22 1,180 1,180 1,192-12 52% 144% 154% 19 HDPE 873 715 726-11 1,130 974 835 139 1,130 973 960 13 1,545 1,545 1,321 233 65% 97% 95% 10 PVC 758 701 672 29 PP 1,160 820 910-90 849 720 766-46 1,370 1,302 1,092 210 849 720 858-138 1,370 1,302 1,299 3 999 1,000 1,051-51 1,400 1,400 1,397 3 33% 68% 65% 04% 15% 50% 3 ( : Kg) :,, 2003 12 2000 3, 93 1/3 2020 6~90, 2000 40/45
1 (2),, 2010 2002 3,635 7,792 : 2003 1998~2002 100% 2010 2002 : 2001~2003 10% ( : ) 2010 10% 2010 2002 1,516, 10% 1 PPP 1 670 ( : ) 2010 2,691 2002 1,256 ( : 10 ) : GDP 1994~2002 149%, 2003 10% 10% 41/45
1 (3), R&D () 100 US$ 1999 32,240 (375) 25,670 (298) 27,090 (315) 1,040 (12) 86,040 (100) 1,789 2005 ( :, %) 2010 35,320 (376) 93,540 28,880 (307) 78,720 28,500 (303) 53,590 1,300 (14) 94,000 (100) 233,790 2,186 : Bio 2003 ( Bangalore) (400) (337) (229) 7,940 (34) (100) 4,270 Bio Park - 1, - Mumbai, Bangalore,, Bangalore IT IT :,, 2003 12 - Bio Informatics,,,,, Downstream processing,, rdna,,,, (bioreactor), ( ) 42/45
2 (1) 6 8, 240 IPCL Reliance Oswal Agro NOCIL GAIL Haldia Gujarat, Vdodara ", Gandhar Maharashtra, Nagothane Gujarat, Hazira Maharashtra, Mumbai Maharashtra, Mumbai Utter Pradesh, Auriya West Bengal, Haldia :, 2003 ( / ) 40 /75 13 30 23 63 30 466 1970 IPCL Reliance 2002 3 Reliance IPCL Reliance 30 Reliance 6, 260 43/45
2 (2) Reliance, Reliance ( / ) PFY PSF PTA MEG PX 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 373 375 116 38 1342 394 403 1165 40 151 425 437 120 40 1485 435 437 1262 40 165 435 437 1262 40 1733 47% 100% 467% 113% 100% 100% 45% Rel Rel RCIL BSES RPVL RIIHL ventures capital Infocomm 50% 45% 3852% 989% 50% 566% Promoters RPIL 302% 100% 46% 75% IPCL Others Reliance Industries Ltd Trust 472% 256% RIIL RTL PVC PE PP 288 376 1038 286 434 105 29 44 1114 29 44 1218 29 44 1218 Funds lent Private group cos 75% 75% Reliance Gen Insurance Reliance life Insurance 25% 25% : IPCL : ABN-AMRO, Feb 10, 2004 : RPVL : Reliance power ventures ltd RIIHL : Reliance industrial investments and holdings ltd RIIL : Reliance industrial infrastructure ltd RCIL : Reliance communications infrastructure ltd RPIL : Reliance petro investments ltd IPCL : Indian petrochemical corpn Ltd RPL : Reliance telecom ltd 44/45
2 (3) Reliance, Reliance Reliance LLDPE HDPE Polypropylene PVC PFY PSF PTA PX Naphtha ( : %) 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 36 36 36 36 266 257 256 151 10 308 308 308 308 261 257 256 99 10 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 99 10 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 5 8 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 5 8 Reliance Assam Project,,, : 2004 : Goldman Sachs, Jan 5, 2004 45/45