20 IMF 21..,,.. 50,... 30,, 3. - i -
.. 2.. 3 20.,..,,,.. - ii -
,. 2001 6 - iii -
:? 1 1 10 9 1. 9 2. 11. : 11. : 14. : 20. : 23. Flight to Quality : 26 3. : 27. 1 : 27. 2 : 31. 3 : 36 4. 39 2 41 1. 41. 4 1. 44 2. 54. 54 - iv -
. 56 3. 58. 58. 6 1. 62 4. 63. 63. 69. 70 5. 72. 72. 74 3 76 1. 76. 76. 77 2. 80. 80. 82. 83 3. 86. 86. 88 - v -
. 88. 89. 91. 92 4. 95. 95. 96. 97 5. 98. 98. 99. 100 : 102 [ ] 121 - v i -
:? 1997 5 ( ) 1). IMF.. 1988 10. IMF. 4. 4 6 1. 10, 2., 3 1) ( ). - 1 -
.,.?.,...,,,. - 2 -
' '.. 2,.,.,..,. - 3 -
,,.., 1990. 1990..,. 18, - 4 -
.,.. IMF, IMF.... 1980 1990-5 -
.,,.,. IMF.... 2000. - 6 -
..,... -,. - 7 -
...,. ***.. - 8 -
1 10 1. 1980 1990. 10. 1990. 1990 1 3 1. 10 1990 1/3.,. 1997 11-9 -
,, 4. < 1> ( ) 1997 ( ) 2 (13 ) 1999 ( ) 5 (14 ) ( ) 3 5 (16 ) ( ) 4 5 (28 ) 2000 ( ) 5 7 (10 ) ( ) 1 5 (7 ) ( ) 1 5 (8 ) 2001 ( ) 1 7 (18 ) : 5. 2001 7, 2000-10 -
.,. 2.,,... : 2-11 -
...,...., - 12 -
, < 2> (1988) 119.5% ( 5.5 ) 72.1% ( 7.5 ) (1992) 21.4% 9.6% 12.2% ( 8.1 ) 1.5% 12.2% ( 8.1 1.5% :,..., 1980.. < 2>. - 13 -
< 1> ( ) 1988 72% 87~90 3 10... : - 14 -
1980, 2). 1986,. 1990 1991,,., 2) 1985 9 22, 1 260, 1987 123. - 15 -
. < 2>., - 16 -
.,., 1991. (capital gain). 1980,,. 1987 6.15% - 17 -
1988 10 4.75%.., 1980 1990 5% 2.5%. 1996,., 1999 1 6,000, 1990. - 18 -
< 3> ( ) 1999 700 4,600 3,900. 1992 2,630,. 1999 23% - 19 -
.. : 30~50%..,,..,.,, - 20 -
. 1996 36%,, 40% 52%.,.. < 3> ( : %) 1988 1990 1993 1995 1998 7.34 6.73 4.48 4.18 1.40 4 7.01 6.25 3.73 3.00 2.00 6.80 6.20 4.40 3.70 3.10 5.80 6.10 4.94 3.88 3.00 4 5.45 6.07 4.62 3.72 3.03 5.45 6.07 4.74 3.71 2.93,,. - 21 -
, 3). 330% -74%. (order-made). 4),,., 1997 10.62%( 2.93%). 5) 1~2 3) ( ),,. 4),. 5) = / - 22 -
.. : (volume)...,.. - 23 -
< 4> (1996) ( : %) 17.9% 42.5% 13.8% 45.0% 11.0% 39.8% : 1),., = ( + ),. 2) : 54.0% (13 ), 37.3% (25 ), : 87.0% (13 ), 76.9%(25 ) < 4> :, OECD,, 2000. - 24 -
,,.,,., JA( ), ( ), ( ),.,,, AXA, 1996.. - 25 -
. Flight to Quality :.., 65%, 10.8% 17.2% 18.0%. < 5> ( : %) 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 10.55 10.88 17.56 14.73 14.77 4 8.33 8.65 9.65 10.25 10.35 8.60 8.90 10.80 10.60 10.5 : - 26 -
3. :,. 4.,.,.. 1 : 1909, 1940 1997. - 27 -
(1997 3 ) : 2 610 : 2 (, 13 ) : 1,230, 3,141 1997 3 44 18. 1989, 1994, 1997, 10. - - 28 -
1980. 6) 1988 72% 87~90 3 10.. < 6 > 1988 1990 1992 1994 72.1% 28.6% 22.0% 16.9% 9.6% 6.0% 6.9% 6.6% < 6> 87~88 90 48%,. 6) 1987 80 Powerful 80 5-29 -
1992 2~3%, 2~3 200~300. -. 1989 47%, 1996 36%...,,. - 30 -
., 1993., (order-made). 3 70%.. 2 : 1895, 1934,, 2001 3. (2000 3 ) : 1 953 (2000 9 9 ) - 31 -
: 1,689 (, 18 ) : 940, 2,418 : 12 7,499 ( : 6 123 ) : 341 (2001 3 ) : 83%(2001 3 ) 2000 3 42 18 38. GE.. GE. - 32 -
100 GE. 7) 2001 3 23. - 1.4%., (10 ) (4.5% ) 100. 7). - 33 -
- 6, 2000 3 12.7% 10.5% 2.2%. 2000, 5 2000 10. 2000 3 13.4% 6, 2000 3 13.8%. -, 2000 4., 27.0% 45.5%, - 34 -
8.7%( 4.8%). < 7> FY'94 FY'95 FY'96 FY'97 FY'98 FY'99 GDP 0.6% 1.5% 5.1% 1.4% -2.9% 0.9% (10 ) 3.68% 3.21% 2.45% 1.88% 1.70% 1.50% 5.0% 5.0% 4.4% 4.4% 4.5% 4.5% 9.1% 10.3% 10.3% 14.9% 13.2% 12.7% 8.3% 8.6% 8.9% 10.8% 10.6% 10.5% 15.5% 15.3% 16.3% 14.7% 15.4% 13.8% 14.2% 13.8% 14.3% 13.2% 13.4% 13.4% 3.95% 4.04% 3.61% 3.23% 2.85% 3.06% 3.91% 3.72% 3.45% 3.34% 3.06% 2.84% 5 117 85 66 56 41 ( ) 287 294 336 259 133 271 : 1) 2) FY'99-341 (2001 3 ) 1,150 740, 300, 100. 446.7(FY'98) 402.3%(FY'99) 370%(2000 9-35 -
), 83%(FY2000) 200%.. 3: 1949 ( ) 2000 5. (2000 3 ) : 1 3,870 ( 8 ) : 1,576 (, 15 ) : 1,243 : -74.7% - - 36 -
( ) ( ) (8 ) 60%. 23% 2,. < 8> ( ) * FY'94 FY' 95 FY' 96 FY'97 FY'98 ( ) 66.6% 67.7% 67.1% 61.5% 59.8% ( ) 22.5% 23.4% 24.0% 24.4% 20.4% ( ) 23.6% 23.4% 24.2% 21.9% 20.2% ( ) 27.7% 29.5% 29.3% 25.7% 26.4% ( ) 31.2% 31.5% 31.9% 32.3% 29.3% ( ) 27.6% 26.1% 29.1% 25.9% 24.5% 26.5% 26.5% 26.8% 25.1% 23.0% : * = /,. - - 37 -
4.4% 612, 320. 869., 330.0% -74.7%.. < 9> FY'94 FY' 95 FY' 96 FY'97 FY' 98 GDP 0.6% 1.5% 5.1% 1.4% -2.9% (5 ) 3.8% 1.8% 1.6% 1.2% 1.4% 4.0% 3.0% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 4.5% 3.9% 3.5% 3.1% 3.0% 4.2% 3.7% 3.3% 3.2% 2.9% 1,090 498 964 657 700 ( ) 4,072 4,052 3,054 3,308 2,790, (5 ) (4% ) - 38 -
1 1.5%. 4., < 10>,.,..,., - 39 -
,.,. < 10> / 4) 3 * GE ** Manu life AIG Pru d- ential ** : 1.. 2. *, **. - 40 -
2 1.,,... 1994 1994 10 2000 10. 1994 10 1-41 -
, 3. < 11> - 1994 10 1-1995 12-1996 12 2-1998 6 Follow-up - 2000 7 ( ) 1996 1,, 1996 4. 56, 3,,, - 42 -
,,,. 1996 1994 1995 12 1 1996 12 15, 1994. < 12> 2 ('96 12 ) 3 ( ) (`97. 9. 1 - ) (`97. 1 16 ) 3-3 (`98. 7. 1 ) - ( ) 1998 7 (`97. 1 `98., 4. 1 ) 2001. - 43 -
3 1996 12 2. 1996 2 < 13>.. 8) 1998 6. 24, 1998 7 1 8) 1996 11 ( ), 1996 11. - 44 -
, 12. 9) (Free), (Fair), (global) 3. 10),,,,, 9) 1980,,,. 10).,,,,,,,,,, ( ),,,,,,,,,,,,,, 24. - 45 -
., (2000. 7. 1) (2001. 1. 16) 2000 7. 5%( 10%) 11 1998 3. 2000 10 ( 3 ) < 13> 1998. 3, 1998. 12 2000. 10,, : 1999 FACT BOOK,, 1999. - 46 -
. M&A. 1998., 1998 12,,,,,,., 106 1998 12,,, - 47 -
(< 5> ). < 5> ( ) : 1) 1) 2) 2), ( :, ) < 14> 1998 12 ( ) ( ) 1999 10 ( ) 2001 10 ( ) : ( ). : 1999 FACT BOOK,, 1999. - 48 -
(Solvency Margin) 1996 1998 3. (Risk Based Capital). 1999 1, 200%., 100% 200%, 0% 100%, 0%. 2001 2, 3.,, - 49 -
.,.,., ( 100% 50%)., (double gearing) ( ). 2001 3 10%. 2002 4 1,000-50 -
. 2000 6. (2000 6 ) 9,600, 5,600, 4,000. 1997 4 1996..,.. - 51 -
1998, 1998 7,,,, 5, 11). 12). 1997 ( ) 13 2000 12.,, 2001 4 11),,,,. 12) (, ). - 52 -
., 2001. 1998 12.,., 1996 10.... - 53 -
2.. 1990. 1990 5.1% 1996 4 1997 2, 2001 3 3. 2001 3,,,. < 15 > ( : %) '90 '91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 GDP 5.1 3.8 1.0 0.3 0.6 1.5 5.1 1.4-2.9 0.9 2.1 2.1 2.2 2.5 2.9 3.1 3.3 3.4 4.1 4.7 : GDP GDP. - 54 -
,,,.. 1990 2.1% 94 2.9%, 97 3.4%, 99 4.7%, 3,.. 60 1 9,071, 23 9,874. S&P 26 AAA AA+. - 55 -
. 1989 34,059 2000 13,786, (adverse wealth effect),.,, < 6> 1990 ( ) : (http://www.ksda.or.kr). - 56 -
. 16 2000 3 4, 2001 3 2 5,400. 1%, 0%,. 2000 8 < 7> 1990 :,, 2000. 3,.. - 57 -
0.25% 2001 2 0.15%.,. 3. 1996 1998.,,,,.. - 58 -
, 1998 7. AHA, Zurich, London 30% 40%. AHA 1982 1996. 1997 9 30% 60.. TAP. "TAP" 1998 11-59 -
< 16> ( ) ( ) +20% +30% +15% +30% ( ), +15% +30% ( ) +5% +10% Saison - 6% -18% Secom ( - 20% ) Risk American H ome (, - 30% +30% ) Zurich - 40% +5% 2 3, - 2 5, - :,,, 2000. 2, p. 5. 1999 11. ( ) 50 5%(10 ) - 60 -
... 1996 11, 7.., 2001. - 61 -
. 1997., JA,,,. < 17> ( : ) 1998 1999 12,160 1,382 13,543 11,788 1,395 13,184 8,339 609 8,948 8,271 655 8,926 JA 1,993 170 2,163 1,937 188 2,126 1,357 68 1,426 1,354 68 1,423 537-535 622-622 206-206 235-235 24,595 2,229 26,825 2411 2,307 26,519 : 1999 3 ( 1999 5 ) - 62 -
1995 3 371 1999 3 622 5 68%, 1993 1999 3 3. 4.. 1996 8 M&A 1999... 4%., - 63 -
. 4, 2. 2000 9 3. UFJ( - - ), - 2001 4,, (< 8> ). 4 5, 136.6 1, 100.8, 87.7, UFJ 86.4. - 64 -
< 8>. 1996 8 1999. - 65 -
< 9> UFJ AIU : 2000 3 (, ). - 66 -
< 18> M/ S ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) 6 10 3 4 ( ) 5 ( ) 8 ( ) 8 ( ) 9 ( ) 7 ( ) 10 ( ) 12 20 : 2001 4 9.8% : 2001 10 16.4% : 2001 4 11.2% 8.5% (1999.1) 1999 12 7.9% 2000 2 3.6%. - 67 -
< 19> SBC M UFJ - - - - - - -, - - ( ), - - -, - - 68 -
-, - ( ) - ( )- ( ) 5..,.,,,. 1999 ( ) 2000 2, Winterthur. AXA AXA ( ) 2001 AXA Group Life Insurance. Artemis Aoba ( ), General - 69 -
Electic GE Capital GE 1999 ( ). ( ) Manulife, AIG,. < 20>, 1998. 2 GE Capital 1998. 4 Gerling 1999. 6 GE Capital 1999. 9 Artemis Aoba 1999.10 Sony 1999.11 Aetna 1999.11 AXA 2000. 1 Winterthur N ICOS 2000. 6 AIG 2000. 10 AIG 2000. 10 Pru dential(us) 2000. Manulife(CA). - 70 -
. SONY 1998 6 One on One., SECOM 1999 5 ( ) SECOM. HIS < 10> AHA Zurich Insurance All State ( ) ( ) ( ) SECOM( ) HIS( ) Saison - 71 -
Saison Saison. 5...,,.,,. (5 ) ( ) (7 ),. - 72 -
< 11> :,, ( ). :, 2000. 9. 15 ( ) (2 ) ( ) (2 ) 2000 8. ( ). ( ) ( ) - 73 -
20%..., CM, DM, TM. 1999 10 Direct Line.. Insweb Insweb Japan, Charles Schwab. - 74 -
3 1...,., 2001 3 31., - 75 -
., 1.,...,. - 76 -
, 1,300, 1999 4. 1.,,,. 1999 0.2% 14.7%. 2000 9 300. < 21> ( :, %) 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 373,707 366,840 318,575 226,044 259,215-2.4-1.8-13.2-29.0 14.7 1,772,052 1,779,771 1,543,571 1,345,199 1,342,763-5.5 0.4-13.3-12.9-0.2-77 -
, 1996 21 IT, 500.,, CRM..., ( ), ( ),,,, ( ) 7 Financial One. Financial One CRM,. 2001 4-78 -
,,,.,,,,,. 365 24. 2... - 79 -
.,.,,., 2000 9. 2000 10. 1999 6,. 2001 4 ( )., IT,. - 80 -
,...,., 1999 12 ( ), 2000 9., 2000 7 ( ) AIU 2000 10. - 81 -
, 3.,,,,. (OEM) (IT) IT..,. 2001 4 ATM ( ).,,, - 82 -
,,, ( ) 8 2000 9 Japan Pension Navigator Co... 8.,.,,,,., - 83 -
. 5.,., 1994 2000 11 30 Financial Guarantee., - 84 -
.,,. A,,,, ABS(Asset Backed Securities : ). 3... 1992 43 7 1999 32 6, 1992 10 3 1999 9 3. ( ), - 85 -
1991 85,800 1999 57,722 8 2 8, 1996 162 1999 125 3 37, 1991 2,597 1999 1,854 8 743. 1992 9,060 1999 6,429 1992 2,630. 1 2,000. 1994 17,835 1999 13,712., CRM. BPR 3. 3 300. - 86 -
.,. 1999 39.5%, 25.8%. < 22> ( ) ( :, %) 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 11,514 11,052 11,669 11,914 11,358 4,339 4,043 4,402 4,866 4,488 37.7 36.6 37.7 40.8 39.5 307,621 293,535 303,005 285,432 271,968 89,689 88,373 83,948 80,517 70,081 29.2 30.1 27.7 28.2 25.8., - 87 -
. ( ), 3.. 1998 12, 2001 4,,... - 88 -
7. ( ) ( ), 2000 12.,. ( ), 2001 124.,., - 89 -
.,, ( )... 2000 10 ( ).. ( ) - 90 -
., ( )..,., - 91 -
., Nissay GLAD(Good Life Advisory Department) 1998 3. 2, 100., DM,.. - 92 -
., 2001 6 DM TM CM., 43%, IT. (NRI) (Ins-direct)., Direct. CM., 1-93 -
1. 24 7.,,,,,. 4.. 1990. < 23> ( ) ( : %) 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 34.6 30.8 31.3 27.3 32.2 32.5 30.8 30.7 22.4 65.4 69.2 68.7 72.7 67.8 67.5 69.2 69.3 77.6-94 -
,., 1990. 1980. 2000 4 ING,, AXA,.. - 95 -
. 1995, 1995.. 1998 1999 20 30% 2000 40%.,..,, - 96 -
. AHA,., TAP Get Back. 5...,. 1980-97 -
,. (ALM). 1993 30%. < 24> ( : %) 1990 8.4 22.0 13.7 37.9 1998 24.7 14.9 11.5 30.8 :. 1999 57.1%, 29.4%, 13.4%.., (ALM), (special account or separate account). - 98 -
....., 1996. Capital Group. - 99 -
, Credit Swiss, MC United Asset Management. 1998 4,. - 100 -
:?..,.... - 101 -
,,,,.,....,. - 102 -
.,....... - 103 -
..,.,. - 104 -
.,...,. - 105 -
. 1999,.,..,.. 1990-106 -
,....,... - 107 -
?,., -.. - -,.., (financial consultant),, DM. - - 108 -
.. IT,. IT,,,..,... - 109 -
.,.,, DB. -,.,,,,. - 110 -
.,,..,,...,. - 111 -
...,,,,..,,,.,, IT,. - 112 -
.. IT IT. CRM, IT. IT. IT. IT - 113 -
. 2000 6~7% IT 29.5% IT. IT 450, IT., IT..,., 100 300, 1/3 1/5. IT - 114 -
IT. IT,,.. IT,,,..,. - 115 -
.. IMF,.,. CEO... - 116 -
.....,,.,. - 117 -
,....,.. - 118 -
. 50...,.,,.. - 119 -
[ ].. 1998 12 1 ( ) ( ),.,,,,.. - 120 -
< 1> ( ) ( ),,,,, 1) 2000 - - 98.7.31 : - 98.8.1 2,000 : Min{ +, + } ( 2,000 ) 2,000 : Min{ +, } 2001 2) 2001 4 90% (< -2> ) - 5,000 3 ( ) (0.3%) : 23, : 16 ( ) : 44, : 53 (2001 4 ) : 1. 98, 98 ( ). 2. 2001 4 ( ) 1,000. - 121 -
< 2> 2001 3 ( ) 2001 4 1 ( ), 100%,( 100% ),, 100%,, 90% 90 % (,,, ) 100% 100%, 100% 90 % 90% 90% 50 +15 ( 50 )) 400 +60 ( 400 ) : 1. 2001 3 60. 2.,. - 122 -
,. ( ). - 123 -
( ) : - 90%,. - ( ) - 124 -
(1.0 0 1.75%) - -. -, ( ) - /, - 125 -
< 14> - ( ) (7 10 ) (., ) - 126 -