200% 2000 9
, LG
< >, IMF,, 30 IMF 30,,, 30 1997 307, 63 1999 244, 149 489% 164% 30 IMF 2000 1999 i
,, (+), (-) IMF 30 5~30 1~4 (-), (+) IMF 30, 200%, 30 ii
< > < > I 30 1 1 1 2 2 3 7 4 8 5 9 II 30 11 1 11 2 13 3 14 4 : 17 5 : ROE19 6 21 III 23 1 23 2 25 3 28 IV 200% 32 < > 40 < >45
< > <I-1> <I-2> 30 3 30 4 <I-3> 30 5 <1> GDP 12 <I-4> 30 5 <2> 18 <I-5> 30 6 <I-6> 30 7 < 1> GDP ( )11 <I-7> 30 8 < 2> 12 <I-8> 30 9 < 3> GDP 13 <II-1> 30 12 < 4> 14 <II-2> 30 16 < 5> GDP HP 14 <II-3> 30 17 < 6> 15 <II-4> 30 21 < 7> GDP GDP15 <II-5> 30 22 < 8> 16 <III-1> 26 < 9> 16 <III-2> 30 < 10> 17 <III-3> 31 < -1> 41 < -2> 4 42 < -3> 4 42 < -4> 4 43 < I-1> 30 10 < II-1> 30 14 < II-2> 30 18 < II-3> 30 18 < II-4> 30 19
30 1 IMF EVA,,, LG, SK 4 200% IMF, 2 4 IMF 200% 30 4 30 200% 1
2 30, 2 (Debit), (Credit) 30,, IMF,, IMF
200% 30 200% 30 9642, 9745 987, 9913 99 96, 97 1/4 30, 4 5 ~ 30 4 9628, 9731, 986, 9910 1999 4 IMF 98 4 IMF 96, 97 1/3 5~30 9614, 9714, 9813, 9925 5~30 99 96, 97 1/6 <I-1> 30 ( : ) 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 1~4 202 282 306 60 101 5~30 124 137 143 13 25 30 326 419 449 73 126 : 1 2 30,,,, 30 30 9684, 97133 200% 3
9811, 9903 4 965, 9710 IMF 9875, 991 5 ~ 30 98 <I-2> 30 ( : ) 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 1~4 43 51 96-75 -11 5~30 38 34 37-35 08 30 81 85 133-110 -03 : 1 = + + + + 2 3 30 30, 30 9633, 9732, 9818, 9914 04 30 98 4 9623, 9721, 9813, 9911 5 ~ 30 9610, 9711, 985, 992 4
<I-3> 30 ( : ) 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 1~4 159 231 210 135 113 5~30 85 103 106 48 17 30 244 334 316 183 139 : 1 = 2 30 30, 30 9675, 9781, 98 115, 99106 4 4 9644, 9751, 9890, 99 93 IMF 2 5 ~ 30 9631, 9729, 9826, 9913 30,, <I-4> 30 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 1~4 49 44 51 90 93 5~30 24 31 29 26 13 30 73 75 80 116 106 : 30 200% 5
IMF 30 30 96, 97 20, 17 30 199678%, 199766%, 1998 58%, 1999 61% 4 199657%, 199747%, 1998 40%, 199936% <I-5> 30 ( ) (%) 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 1~4 104 120 120 110 104 5~30 74 83 78 64 65 30 178 203 198 174 169 1~4 58 57 47 40 36 5~30 86 82 69 61 66 30 82 78 66 58 61 : 1 30 2 = + 3 30 1996 66%, 1997 55%, 1998 46%, 1999 45% 30 IMF 30 199714 1999 29 4 4 199712 6
199926 14 5~30 96~98 02 1999 03, 4 <I-6> 30 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 1~4 08 10 12 12 26 ( ) 5~30 02 02 02 02 03 30 10 12 14 14 29 1~4 045 049 049 045 086 5~30 025 021 018 019 034 (%) 30 028 025 023 023 041 : 1 30 2 = ( )+ ( )+ ( ) 3 30 30 9620, 9728, 9818, 9926 4 20 IMF 1996 4 9614, 9720, 9815, 9920 5~30 56 98 3 IMF 96 97 5~30 9661, 9786, 9829, 9956 200% 7
<I-7> 30 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 1~4 164 140 196 148 200 5~30 56 61 86 29 56 30 220 201 282 177 256 : 1 30 2 = + 4 30, IMF,, 200% 30 9632, 9742, 9814 99 1 36 9643, 9725, 9883 99 284 4 4, 9620, 9728 9836, 9926 4 9625, 9717, 9871, 9922 4 29, 29 5~30 4 5~30, 96115, 97135, 985 10 8
5~30 9618, 9708, 9812, 9964 1~4 5~30 30 <I-8> 30 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 120 202 284-36 -257 29 25 17 71 220 149 227 301 35-37 103 115 135 50-104 08 18 08 12 64 111 133 143 62-40 223 317 419 14-361 37 43 25 83 284 260 360 444 97-77 : 30 5,,, 30,,, 96 9730 42 45 20 28 9636, 9744 200% 9
30 98 9930 7 13 18 26 2 9810, 99 8 30,, 1) 30, < > 96 97, 98 99 < I-1> 30 ( ) ( ) 1) IMF / 30, 10
30 30 30, 30, 30 1 30 30 96225, 97307, 98294, 99244 97 21% 63 4, 96125, 97178, 98165, 99 136 4 97 23%, 42 5~30 96100, 97129, 98129, 99108 5~30 97 16%, 21 30, 30, 96147, 97211, 98 206, 99152 97 59 4 9680, 97125, 98117, 9982 4 34% 5~30 9667, 9786, 9889, 9970 5~30 97 19% 200% 11
30 30, 96 60, 9763, 9892, 99149 IMF 136% 4 9635, 9738, 9857, 9996 97 153% 5 ~ 30 9625, 9725, 9834, 9953 5 ~ 30 97 112% 30, 30 99 30 200% 20 1~4 5~30 <II-1> 30 ( :, %) 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 940 1247 1783 1646 1357 ( ) (576) (804) (1247) (1172) (820) 315 349 377 574 961 3136 3670 4798 2841 1405 826 1005 1291 1294 1082 ( ) (550) (670) (860) (891) (698) 219 251 252 344 527 4059 3977 5714 4442 2517 1766 2252 3074 2940 2439 ( ) (1126) (1474) (2107) (2063) (1518) 30 534 600 629 918 1488 3911 3929 5573 4196 2346 3309 3754 4891 3024 1638 : 1 30 2 95~99 (98 ), (99 ), (95, 97, 98, 99 ) 3 30 4 = + + + + 12
2 30, 30 30 1997 307 1999 244 63 211 152 59, 4 35, 24 2 30 1997 63 1999 149 86 2, 37, 47 30 1997 489% 1999 164% 2 325%p 1997 30 307, 63, 1999 30 244, 149 30 1999 239% 200% 13
< II-1> 30 3 30 29 97 30 9666%, 9772%, 98116%, 99105% 4 9638%, 9740%, 9862%, 9943% 5~30 9670%, 9777%, 98125%, 99115% 4 2 98 14
= =, 30 30, 96110%, 97101%, 98 130%, 99115% 4 96109%, 9791%, 98135%, 99 115% 5~30 96110%, 97102%, 98130%, 99 115% 98 30 IMF 2, 3 30 9653%, 9756%, 9857%, 9952% 4 9649%, 9754%, 9855%, 9944% 5~30 9654%, 9757%, 9858%, 9953% 30 96102, 97093, 9808, 99075 4 96139, 97124, 98119, 9912 5~30 96096, 97088, 98073, 99068 4 70% 200% 15
30 30 9620%, 9717%, 985%, 991% 99 30 IMF 2000 30 2) 3 <II-2> 30 1~4 5~30 30 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 (%) 38 38 40 62 43 (%) 102 109 91 135 115 (%) 473 489 543 548 436 () 130 139 124 119 120 (%) 73 70 77 125 115 (%) 106 110 102 130 115 (%) 540 539 568 575 532 () 086 096 088 073 068 (%) 678 659 720 1163 1048 (%) 105 110 101 130 115 (%) 530 532 564 571 519 () 092 102 093 080 075 : 1 30 2 3 = ( / ) 100 = ( / ) 100, =( + )/2 = ( / ) 100 = /, = ( + )/2 2), 2000628 16
4 :,, <II-3> 30 () 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 1~4 226 131 195 088 139 5~30 099 106 133 060 081 30 118 109 141 064 089 : 1 30 30 99 1 11, 1 18 97 1 20, 1 9 99 97 8 30, 200% 17
< II-2> 30 () < II-3> 30 (1996~1999 ) () 3 96~99 117% 2 1 0 0 5 10 15 (ROIC) :, (,,,,,,, ) = / = / 18
5 : ROE 30, (ROE) = [( ) ( 1 ) ] 30 30 11 97 20 97 6 4 97 186% 99 28% < II-4> 30 ( ) : 200% 19
99 30 (96~99 117%),,,,, ( / ), = [( ) ( )] = [( ) ] ( 1 ) = ( ) ) 1~4 5~30 20
<II-4> 30 1~4 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 (%) 145 50 186-47 28 (%) 75 49 77 54 55 () 130 123 108 118 118 (%) 49 47 43 73 49 () 41 47 58 38 24 5~30 (%) -21-26 95-142 -115 30 (%) 64 65 78 45 51 () 086 085 080 070 070 (%) 57 53 52 72 66 () 51 53 66 54 37 (%) 04-15 108-128 -94 (%) 66 63 78 46 52 () 092 090 084 077 076 (%) 56 52 51 72 64 () 50 52 65 52 35 : 1 30 2 3 = [( - ) (1 )] = ( ) 100 = = ( ) 100 = 6 200% 21
3) IMF IMF 19964 5,500 IMF 4 19983,800, 1999 1998 46% 5,600 IMF 5~30 19992,500 1998 1,700 48% IMF 1996 4,500 5~30 1/4 6 1999 <II-5> 30 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 1~4 4,269 5,506 4,918 3,813 5,585 5~30 2,999 4,461 3,895 1,707 2,534 30 7,268 9,967 8,813 5,520 8,119 3) Business Week Global1000 Global1000,,, 585, 586 22
1 IMF,, IMF, MM(Modigliani Miller), (Pecking order theory), (Tradeoff theory) MM,,,,,, Myers (Information Asymmetry) 200% 23
24,,,,,,,,,,
Tradeoff Tradeoff 2 Shyam Sunder-Myers 4) (Deficit) deficit = ( X + W + XP + IR + R + Div) CF X : = ( ) W : = + ( ) XP : = ( ) 4) Shyam-Sunder L and S Myers, Testing Static Tradeoff Against Pecking Order Models of Capital Structure, Journal of Financial Economics 51, 1999, pp 219-244 200% 25
IR : R : Div : = ( ) CF : = + L = α + β Deficit + ε L = Lt Lt 1 : L + E ( X deficit = t t t + Wt + XPt + IRt + Rt + Divt ) CFt : L + E t t L : = + + + E : <III-1> ; L α 0004 IMF IMF 1~4 5~30 (0200) β 0324 (3689) 0095 (3649) 0378 (3208) -0084 (-3126) 0061 (0563) 0014 (0215) 0038 (0203) -0024 (-1692) 0776 (9419) -0107 (-2248) 1386 (4646) 0007 (0290) 0283 (3092) R 2 011 016 0006 0001 051 061 009 : ( ) t (+) (+) 26 032
IMF, (+) IMF IMF IMF IMF,,, 0781 1~4 5~30 1~4 -, IMF, 200% 27
3 Fama-French Fama-French,, Tradeoff,, 5) Fama-French, (Fitted leverge) (Fitted leverage), < > L t A t = a 0 + a 1 S A t t + a 2 CF S t t + a 3 Div t + a ( EBIT IR ) t t 4 Dep A t t + a 5 RD A t t + a 6 ln( A ) + ε t t < > L A t t L A t 1 t 1 = b 0 Lt + b E A 1 t L A t 1 t 1 + b 2 L A t 1 t 1 CFt + b 3 St CF S t 1 t 1 Wt + X t + XP t + b 4 At + ε t 5) Fama E and K French, Testing Tradeoff and Pecking Order Predictions about Dividends and Debts, Univ of Chicago CRSP Working Paper No 506, July 2000 28
A : = ( + ) + L : = + + + S : RD : ( ) Dep : ( ) EBIT : IR : CF : = + W : = + ( ) X : = ( ) XP : = ( ) Div : = ( ) L t E : At 30 Tradeoff Tradeoff Tradeoff, (-) 200% 29
IMF (-) (-) (-), (+) Tradeoff <III-2> IMF IMF 1~4 5~30-0068 (-187) -0037 (-126) -0144 (-223) -0001 (-001) 0078 (248) 0007 (004) -0089 (-231) -0451 (-093) -0010 (-085) 0599 (127) 0000 (-009) -1556 (-214) 0098 (119) -1776 (-270) -0040 (-144) 1169 (246) -0001 (-017) 3095 (155) -0008 (-071) -0262 (-055) 0001 (003) -0493-1460 0843 1375-2714 -2963-0649 (-059) (-214) (063) (097) (-396) (-065) (-077) 10475-3333 12871 8845-2330 -4049 18670 (416) (-087) (376) (169) (-105) (-088) (608) -0053 0034-0108 -0236 0030 0017-0051 (-266) (198) (-315) (-297) (207) (011) (-161) R 2 017 025 034 072 020 045 031 : ( ) t 30 30 5~30 1~4 (-), (-) (+) ( (-) )
IMF IMF (-), (+) <III-3> IMF IMF 1~4 5~30 0377 (269) 0126 (144) -0736 (-284) 0307 (731) 0127 (070) -0196 (-226) -0137 (-043) 0048 (088) 0395 (264) 0239 (181) -0919 (-261) 0265 (381) 0696 (357) -0369 (-152) -0674 (-128) 0102 (106) 0203 (114) -0070 (-070) 0079 (028) 0250 (613) 0519 (164) 0358 (068) -0773 (-115) 0544 (289) 0441 (375) 0068 (077) -0693 (-260) 0256 (559) R 2 051 012 060 075 038 068 056 : ( ) t (-), 30 6) IMF 5~30, IMF, 1~4, IMF 6), Tradeoff 200% 31
200% 30 IMF 30,, 30 30 99 30 244, 149 IMF 30, 200%, 30 (FLC) 30 30 32
30, 30 (ROIC) = =,,, = [( ) ] ( 1 ),, ( / ), 7) 7),,,, 2,, 1999 200% 33
34 1, 1,
,, ROIC, EVA, ROE NPV, EVA, NPV, 2000 8),,,,,, 1998 200% 35
IMF,,,,,,,,, 36
200% 37 R&D,, 1999 2147% 4 1405% 1999 1664%
38 (hedge),, (ABS),,, CFO
200% 39, 60%,,, IR
40 < >,, ( ) 8 16,,
4 4 < -1> LG SK 31 23 29 26 35 30 39 33 29 22 30 29 6 8 9 4 83 73 120 24 118 103 159 57 : 4 192%, 98%, 396% 200% 41
4 384%, 56% 381%, 417%, LG 380%, SK 361% < -2> 4 ( ) 678 246 432 1552 15 (%) 192 98 396 384 56 : : 4 4 550% 785% 490% 382%, (ROIC) 4 103% 135%32%p 42 < -3> 4 (%) 785 382 333 1346 550 490 338 1027 :, (Kis-Line) : 4,, = / [ +( - )]
4 2311% 1405% 90%p < -4> 4 (%) () 2311 164 1405 162 :, (Kis-Line) : 4 = / ( - ) 200% 43
44 IR
< >,,, 1999 3 (I), 1999 10 2, pp 371-411,,,,,, 1998,, EVA, 14, 1997, pp 1-21,,,, 11997, 21999,, " ", 51, 1999, pp27-51,,, " ", 131997, pp101-129,,, 1999 (II), 1999 11 6, pp 1-20,,, LG, 1998,, 17, 1999 5, 200% :, LG 584, LG, 2000 8 16,, MBO, LG, 1998,,, 7, LG, 2000 5,, " ", 161998, pp1-21,,, LG 432, LG, 1997 9 17,,, 122, 1999, pp 95-124,, " ", 251999, pp301-341,,, LG, 2000, - Global 1000, LG 585, LG, 2000 8 23, - Global 1000, LG 586, LG, 2000 8 30, " ", KDI 211 200% 45
1999, pp3-58 Bacidore, Jeffrey M, John A Boquist, Todd T Milbourn, and Anjan V Thakor, The Search for the Best Financial Performance Measure, Financial Analysts Journal, May/June 1997, pp 11-20 Emery, Grey W, Sustainable Growth for Credit Analysis, Business Credit, February 2000, pp 35-39 Fama, E and K French, Testing Tradeoff and Pecking Order Predictions about Dividends and Debt, Univ of Chicago CRSP Working Paper No 506, July 2000 Fazzari, S, R Hubbard and B Peterson, "Financing Constraints and Investment: Response to Kaplan and Zingales", Working Paper, Jan 1996 Ferguson, Robert and Dean Leistikow, Search for the Best Financial Performance Measure: Basics Are Better, Financial Analysts Journal, January/February 1998, pp 81-85 Kaplan, S and L Zingales, "Investment-Cash Flow Sensitivities Are Not Valid Measures of Financing Constraints", NBER Working Paper no 7659, April 2000 Krishnan, Gopal V and James A Largay, The Predictive Ability of Direct Method Cash Flow Information, Journal of Business & Accounting, January/March 2000, pp 215-245 Mills, John R and Jeanne H Yamamura, The Power of Cash Flow Ratios, Journal of Accountancy, October 1998, pp 53-61 Mauboussin, Michael J and Bob Hiler, Cash Economics in the New Economy Cash Flowcom, February 1999 Scharfstein, D, "The Dark Side of Internal Capital Markets II: Evidence from Diversified Conglomerates", NBER Working Paper, Jan 1998 Schnure, C, "Internal capital markets and investment: do the cash flow constraints really bind?", Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System Working Paper, 1997 Shin, Hyun-Han and R Stulz, "Are Internal Capital Market Efficient?", Quarterly Journal of Economics, 1998, pp 531-552 Shyam-Sunder L and S Myers, Testing Static Tradeoff Against Pecking Order Models of Capital Structure, Journal of Financial Economics 51, 1999, pp 219-244 Titman, S and R Wessels, "The Determinants of Capital Structure Choice", Journal of Finance 43, 1988, pp 1-19 Vogt, Stephen C and Joseph D Vu, Free Cash Flow and Long-Run Firm Value: Evidence from the Value Line Investment Survey, Journal of Managerial Issues, Summer 2000, pp 188-207 46