전시억제이론 (Intra-War Deterrence theory) 과한반도적용 전시억제이론 (Intra-War Deterrence theory) 과 한반도적용 류기현 *, 조홍일 **, 차명환 *** 1) Ⅰ. 서론 Ⅱ. 억제이론과한반도적용의한계 Ⅲ. 제한핵전전시억제 Ⅳ. 결론 Abstract Intra-War Deterrence Theory and its Application for Korean Peninsular This study suggests theoretical approaches that give a supplement explanation about the application of deterrence theory to the Korean Peninsula situation. The traditional deterrence theory focuses on preventing the escalation of nuclear war by preventing nuclear use before a war. However, there has been insufficient discussions on the risk of nuclear use during a war. Countries with small- and medium-sized nuclear power are emerging, and nuclear power is proliferating. It calls for a doctrinal shift suitable for achieving limited goals through nuclear use during a war. In this study, we compare the traditional deterrence theory with the intra-war deterrence theory and present the possibility of limited war on the Korean Peninsula. Key Words : Intra-war Deterrence, Limited Nuclear War, Escalation Dominance, Deterrence Strategy *,, aim7@kida.re.kr **,, hongilcho@kida.re.kr ***,, mhcha0509@kida.re.kr
국방정책연구제 33 권제 3 호 2017 년가을 ( 통권제 117 호 ) Ⅰ. 서론 (Brodie, 1959; Knorr & Read, 1962; Schelling, 1960; Snyder, 1961, Jervis, 1984), (Pre-War Deterrence).. /,,. 1) (Nuclear Taboo) (Trannenwald, 2007). (Deterrence) (, 2013)..? (Acceptable)?. / / 1) (Tradition of non-use). 10
전시억제이론 (Intra-War Deterrence theory) 과한반도적용 (Schulte, 2012)., /, / (Terrill, 2009).. 2), (, 2013). /,., 3) (Freedman, 2014),. (Durkalec, 2015).,. 4) 2), (Non-Strategic Nuclear Weapon). 3) TV. ( : CNN 2015. 3.16 ) 4) / 11
국방정책연구제 33 권제 3 호 2017 년가을 ( 통권제 117 호 ).,,...,.. Ⅱ. 억제이론과한반도적용의한계 1. 억제이론일반. (Huth, 1999). 2 ( ) 5).. 5) /,.,,,, (Flexible Response),., 12
전시억제이론 (Intra-War Deterrence theory) 과한반도적용,. (Minimum Deterrence) (Mutual Assured Destruction). (First Strike),,. (Myrdal, 1976; Nitze, 1977)., 2. 1.. MAD(Mutual Assured Destruction), (Nathan & Joyner, 2009). MAD,., (Nitze, 1977). 69 1/5~1/4 1/2~1/3. 6) /. 6) Def. Department Annual Report (1969),, (20 ). 13
국방정책연구제 33 권제 3 호 2017 년가을 ( 통권제 117 호 )..,. (Minimum Credible Deterrence) (Existential Deterrence),. (No first use) 2 (Kulkarni & Sinha, 2011),.,, (Subrahmanyam, 1999)., (Bundy, 1983). (, 2016).,.,., 7). 14
전시억제이론 (Intra-War Deterrence theory) 과한반도적용 2. 한반도에서평시억제개념의제한점 2,..,.., 2..,., - (, 2016), /.. 8) (Steinbruner, 1982).,.,,. 7).,,,. 8),,. 15
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전시억제이론 (Intra-War Deterrence theory) 과한반도적용.. (Nathan & Joyner, 2009).. 2 /,.., 1. 11), / (Myrdal, 1976; Patrick, 2003),. Ⅲ. 제한핵전과전시억제. 10) 100..,. 11) Five myths about nuclear weapons. 17
국방정책연구제 33 권제 3 호 2017 년가을 ( 통권제 117 호 ),., 12)..,,...,. 1. 제한전과제한핵전. 13), (Osgood, 1979). 2 (Brodie, 1954; Osgood, 1979) ( ) (Kissinger, 1957; Ragavan, 2001). (limited nuclear war) (Ragavan, 2001),., 12). 13),. 18
전시억제이론 (Intra-War Deterrence theory) 과한반도적용 (Singh, 1999),., / 14),.,.,,.,.,.,, /.,.,, (Percival, 1993). (Jackson, 2015), 14). 19
국방정책연구제 33 권제 3 호 2017 년가을 ( 통권제 117 호 ). 15) 16).,. 17) 18). 2. 한반도제한핵전의형태 /.. 15),, 16) ( ).... 17). 18). 20
전시억제이론 (Intra-War Deterrence theory) 과한반도적용 가. 북한의전시핵사용을통한확전지배 (Escalation Dominance) 19), (De-escalation) (Escalation) (Warden, 2017).,, (Jackson, 2015)., (Warden, 2017). (De-escalation),.,....,. 19) Escalation Dominance,,. 21
국방정책연구제 33 권제 3 호 2017 년가을 ( 통권제 117 호 ) 나. 북한의확전지배를위한상황통제 < 그림 1> 확전지배를위한상황통제의 3가지측면 < 1> Morgan et al.(2008). (Vertical Escalation), (Horizontal Escalation), (Political Escalation)..,. (Warden, 2017).,,. 22
전시억제이론 (Intra-War Deterrence theory) 과한반도적용. Khan(1960).,.,,.,.,, (Epstein, 1983).,,..,.. 3. 23
국방정책연구제 33 권제 3 호 2017 년가을 ( 통권제 117 호 ).. 3. 전시억제 (Jackson, 2015; Warden, 2017).,. (Terrill, 2009)....., (Posen, 1982).,, (Morgan, 2008)..,. 24
전시억제이론 (Intra-War Deterrence theory) 과한반도적용....,.,. 1, DIE..,.,..,,. Posen(1982),,., /.. 25
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