4.노병렬논문

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2 ..,.,. (vertical proliferation). (bunker buster), MD., (NPR).,....,,..,.,.

3 ,.,.,..... ( ), ( ), ( ), ( )..,,. NPT,,,

4 ,,,.,,,. NPT. (Montgomery, pp. - ).,..,. (horizontal proliferation) (vertical proliferation).,,. (bunker buster). (QDR: Quadrennial Defense Review) (NPR: Nuclear Posture Review), (Kucia and Kimball ). MD. -M(Topol-M). Putin: Arms race with U.S. not over, The Washington Times, May,,.

5 USA , Russia , UK France China Israel ~ India( ) India( ) ~ S. Africa Pakistan ~ Brazil - - Argentina - - S. Korea - - N. Korea - - Libya - Iraq - - Iran( ) - Iran( ) - - Switzerland - Sweden - - Yugoslavia( ) - Yugoslavia( ) - Australia - Taiwan( ) - - Taiwan( ) - Algeria - Romania - : Alexander H. Montgomery, Social Action, Rogue Reaction: US Post-Cold War Nuclear Counterproliferation Strategies, Ph.D. dissertation, Stanford University,, p., Arms Control Association.

6 .,...,.,.. (opaque proliferation).... (Cohen and Frankel, pp. - ).,., -( :, ), p... (silent proliferation), (veiled nuclearization), (undeclared bomb) (hidden proliferation).

7 (Joeck, p, )..,.,,. (non-proliferation) (counterproliferation). NPT,.,,, NPT, (Nuclear Nonproliferation Regime).. NPT.,.,., (Shaker, p. ). NPT IAEA, (consequence management)..

8 the NPT the Treaty of Tlatelolco the Treaty of Rarotonga the Southeast Asia NWFZ the African NWFZ* the Antarctic Treaty the Outer Space Treaty the Moon Agreement the Seabed Treaty Partial Test Ban Treaty Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty* IAEA INFCIRC/ INFCIRC/ Zangger Committee the Nuclear Supply Group Wassenaar Arrangement ** Missile Technology Control Regime*** : United Nations, The United Nations and Nuclear Non-Proliferation(New York: United Nations, ); SIPRI, SIPRI Yearbook (New York: Oxford University Press, )... NPT IAEA IAEA. NPT.

9 ,, (the Treaty of Tlatelolco) (Nuclear- Weapon Free Zone). (the Antarctic Treaty, ), (the Outer Space Treaty, ), (the Moon Agreement, ), (the Seabed Treaty, ). (the Partial Test Ban Treaty, PTBT) (CTBT).....,,,, (preemptive strike), MD,.. PTBT CTBT. CTBT.., : - ( :, ), pp. -, :,,,. pp. -.

10 (compellent strategy).. (regime change). (Proliferation Security Initiative: PSI). PSI,.,. PSI, (, pp. - ). PSI (supply-side)., MD,,.,.,.

11 ..,. (Kashmir),..,., (, p. ).., NPT (Potter, pp. -). NPT NPT., (NSG).

12 ., (Neither Confirm Nor Deny: NCND) (Vanunu). (Sunday Times). (Dimona) (Cohen and Miller, p. ).

13 . IAEA. (Spector et al, p. ).... UN IAEA,.,... NPT NPT (Natanz), (Arak). IAEA (Additional Protocol), EU (,, ). IAEA,.., : ( :, ),.

14 (Ahmadinejad). EU, (, pp. - )., UN IAEA. UN. UN.,.,. NPT IAEA... (Tajura) MW. (Bhattacharjee and Salama ). IAEA. (MTCR), (CTBT). IAEA

15 , -C,.. ((Muammer Qadhafi) (security assurance) (Squassoni and Feickert, pp. - ). (de Klerk). (The Zangger Committe), (NSG)..., (Fischer, pp. -). (Kalahari)....,

16 .,....

17 .,..,,.,., NPT. NPT., NPT. NPT., NPT IAEA. NPT,,,., (regime).,, NPT, CTBT., :,,,,.

18 ..,...,.,.,,...,,,.. %

19 .,.. NPT UN..., (, p. ).,.,. Anthony H. Cordesman and Khalid R. Ai-Rodman, Iranian Nuclear Weapons? The Options if Diplomacy Fails(Washington D.C.: CSIS, ), pp NPT.,... Monica Serrano, Brazil and Argentina, Mitchell Reiss and Robert S. Litwak, eds., Nuclear Proliferation after the Cold War(Washington, D.C.: The Woodrow Wilson Center Press, ), pp. -.

20 IAEA. (Jimmy Carter),... NPT,.,.,,...,. NPT...,, :,,,, pp. -.

21 ..,..., UN,..,.,...., ( :, ), pp. -.

22 ,..,.,.,. (Maull, pp. - )...,.,, (Montgomery, pp. -).,..,.

23 ,...,...,,.,

24 .,..,.,...,. John S. Park, Inside Multilateralism: The Six-Party Talks, The Washington Quarterly, Vol., No. (Autumn ), pp. - ;, : ( :, ), pp. -..,,, (, ), p.

25 .,,.,.,....., -, (, pp. -). kg, (Albright and Brannan )..,.

26 ..,., , (CVID: complete, verifiable, irreversible, dismantlement).,, (,, pp. - )....

27 (positive security assurance).,, (peace treaty)... (controlled proliferation or managed proliferation).. (selective proliferation).,... The New York Times,. Feldman... John J. Mearsheimer, Back to the Future: Instability in Europe after the Cold War, International Security, Vol., No. (Summer ), pp. -.. Potter,,,. William C. Potter, India and the New Look of U.S. Nonproliferation Policy, p..

28 .,,.. (credible),,.....,,,,.,,,,,, ( E., pp. -).,.

29 ,...,., (fait accompli)..

30 ..,,...,, (regime change) (regime transformation)..., (existential deterrence).... McGeorge Bundy, Existential Deterrence and Its Consequences, in Douglas MacLean, ed., The Security Gamble: Deterrence Dilemmas in the Nuclear Age(Totowa, N.J.: Rowman and Allanheld, ), - ; Marc Trachtenberg, The Influence of Nuclear Weapons in the Cuban Missile Crisis, International Security, Vol., No. (Summer ),.

31 ..,...,..

32 ... :... : -. :... :..... : E.... D.,.,.. :... (PSI). NSP Report (, )... :. : :....,.. : :. Albright, David. and Paul Brannan. The North Korean Plutonium Stock Mid-. ) Bhattacharjee, Anjali and Sammy Salama.. Libya and Nonproliferation.

33 CNS Research Story. December. Bundy, McGeorge.. Existential Deterrence and Its Consequences. in Douglas MacLean. ed., The Security Gamble: Deterrence Dilemmas in the Nuclear Age. Totowa, N.J.: Rowman and Allanheld. Cho Gil Hong.. Disarmament and Confidence-Building on the Korean Peninsula. in United Nations, Disarmament Tropical Paper, Non- Proliferation and Confidence-Building Measures in Asia and the Pacific. New York: United Nations. Cohen, Avener and Benjamin Frankel.. Opaque Nuclear Proliferation. The Journal of Strategic Studies. No. (September). Cohen, Avner and Marvin Miller.. Facing the Unavoidable: Israel s Nuclear Monopoly Revisited. The Journal of Strategic Studies. Vol., No. (September). Cordesman, Anthony H. and Khalid R. Ai-Rodman.. Iranian Nuclear Weapons? The Options if Diplomacy Fails. Washington D.C.: CSIS.. Drell, Sidney D. and James E. Goodby.. What are Nuclear Weapons For?: Recommendations for Restructuring U.S. Strategic Nuclear Forces. An Arms Control Association Report. Fischer, David.. South Africa. Mitchell Reiss and Robert S. Litwak, eds., Nuclear Proliferation after the Cold War. Washington D.C.: the Woodrow Wilson Center Press. Joeck, Neil.. Tacit Bargaining and Stable Proliferation in South Asia. The Journal of Strategic Studies. No. (September). Kucia, Christine and Daryl Kimball.. New Nuclear Policies, New Weapons, New Dangers. Arms Control Association Issue Brief. April. Maull., Hanns W.. North Korea s Nuclear Weapons Programme: Genesis, Motives, Implications. Aussenpolitik. Vol.. th Quarter. Mearsheimer, John J.. Back to the Future: Instability in Europe after the Cold War. International Security. Vol., No. (Summer). Montgomery, Alexander H.. Social Action, Rogue Reaction: US Post-Cold War Nuclear Counterproliferation Strategies. Ph.D. dissertation. Stanford

34 University. Niksch., Larry A.. North Korea s Nuclear Weapons Program. Washington D.C.: CRS Issue Brief for Congress. April. Park., John S.. Inside Multilateralism: The Six-Party Talks. The Washington Quarterly. Vol.. No. (Autumn). Potter, William C.. India and the New Look of U.S. Nonproliferation Policy. Nonproliferation Review. Vol.. No. (July). Preez,.Jean du.. Defusing The Iranian Nuclear Crisis: A Carrot and Stick Approach. CNS Research Story. Sanger, David E.. U.S. Said to Weigh a New Approach on North Korea. The New York Times. May. Shaker, Mohamed I.. The Nonproliferation Treaty Regime: A Rereading before. in Joseph F. Pilat and Robert E. Pendely. eds. Beyond : The Future of the NPT Regime. New York: Plenum Press. Spector, Leonard S., Mark G. McDonough and Evan S. Medeiros, eds.. Tracking Nuclear Proliferation: A Guide in Maps and Charts,. Washington, D.C.: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Squassoni, Sharon A. and Andrew Feickert.. Disarming Libya: Weapons of Mass Destruction. CRS Report for Congress. Trachtenberg, Marc.. The Influence of Nuclear Weapons in the Cuban Missile Crisis. International Security. Vol., No. (Summer).

KJNWFZ concept Paper final_Korean version with notes_June14

KJNWFZ concept Paper final_Korean version with notes_June14 (KJNWFZ) 1 2010 4 25 (KJNWFZ).. (Global Abolition),,. 1. 2,,. 3. 1. 40. 1,.,. 1.1. 2, (NPT) 1975 3. 1 : Peter Hayes, peter@nautilus.org 2 S. Parrish J. du Preez Nuclear- Weapon-Free Zones: Still a Useful