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1 WMD :

2 ,. WMD 2003,.,

3 1 I. 5. WMD 8 1. WMD 8 2. WMD WMD WMD WMD WMD 20. WMD 20 NPT 20 IAEA 21 CWC 22 BWC 24. (export control) 25. WMD 29. WMD WMD 32. WMD WMD i -

4 (HEU) 45 KEDO 46 NPT WMD WMD < 1>, 15 9 < 2> 10 < 3> 11 < 4> 12 < 5> 14 < 6> 24 < 7> CTR (2002 ) 34 < 8> 36 < 9> 38 < 10> 39 < 11> 40 - ii -

5 (James Kelly) (HEU),..,,,,., WMD( ), WMD. WMD ( ),,,,,,. WMD., WMD, WMD. WMD WMD (nonproliferation) (sanction), (counter-proliferation). WMD (means) (system) WMD. WMD WMD - 1 -

6 . WMD , 4, 6. WMD, WMD,. NPT IAEA,. 5 Wassenaar, NSG( ), Zangger Committee, MTCR 4.,, 61,000, WMD., WMD, WMD, (SORT), (Cooperative Threat Reduction).,,., IAEA NPT. CWC, BWC.,,, WMD

7 (package deal),,,,., ;, ;, ( ).. (MD) MD. NMD TMD,,. TMD,. WMD, WMD WMD WMD PSI(Proliferation Security Initiative)

8 6,. 6,, 2....,.,,,.,. WMD. WMD

9 I.. 1, 2~3 20, 21., (theory of clash of civilization) (theory of end of history), (democratic peace theory),,. (enlargement) (engagement).,,,,.,,, (Weapons of Mass Destruction, WMD), (nonproliferation) (disarmament) (NPT), (CTBT), (CWC), (Wassenaar), START I, II SORT - 5 -

10 WMD. WMD 21. WMD,,,. 1990,,., , WMD, WMD. 1, , WMD (Agreed Framework) 6. WMD. 2, WMD.,., WMD, WMD. WMD, WMD - 6 -

11 . WMD WMD. WMD (James Kelly) (HEU), NPT , (package deal)..,.,,,,. WMD,,

12 , WMD, WMD. 2 WMD WMD,, ; 3 WMD, WMD ; 4 WMD ; 5 WMD ; 6.. WMD 1. WMD WMD 20.,. 20, WMD. 1. 2, - 8 -

13 . ( ) ( ). 2,,,, WMD. < 1>, 15 1) W W W W W W W W W W W W W W R W W R R R W W R W W R W W W W R W W R R (W= ; R= ) WMD? WMD. WMD,,.,,,, 1) Joseph Cirincione with Jon B. Wolfsthal and Mirian Rajkumar, Deadly Arsenals: Tracking Weap ons of Mass Destruction (Washington, D.C.: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 2002), p

14 ,. < 2> 2), 1, :,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, UAE,,, 1,000~3,000 7 :,,,,,,, 3,000~5,500 1 :, 5,500 5 :,,,, 2. WMD. (strategic nuclear weapons), (tactical nuclear weapons), (nuclear materials), (nuclear expertise). 3),., NPT, START I, ABM, INF(Intermediate-range Nuclear Forces)., 2) Ibid., p ). Ibid., pp

15 , < 3>. < 3> 4) START I ( ) START I ( ) ICBMs 1,064 4, ,364 SLMBs 940 2, ,868 Bombers ,083 7,652 1,198 5,858 ICBMs. SLBMs SLBMs., (Strategic Offensive Reduction Treaty, SORT)., ,700~2,200., ,000.,,,. 30,000. 4) Ibid., p

16 ,. 1992, 1990., 3,500~8,000.. < 4> 5) (1991 ) (2000 ) (2000 ) 4, , ,000 1,500 1, ,000 3,500 3,500 1,000 5,000 3,000 3,400 2,000 21,700 8,000 8,400 3,400 (HEU, ), 1 HEU, metric-ton( 1,000 ) 1,500 metric-ton HEU. 750 metric-ton. 53,., 5) Ibid., p

17 ,,.,,. 120, ,.,. WMD., 40,000 metric-ton., 81% (sarin), (soman), VX viral agents. 19% lewisite, mustard, lewisite mustard (blistering).,,,.,

18 < 5> 6) (%) Shchuche 13.6 Pochep 18.8 Leoniddovka 17.2 Gorny /mustard, 2.9 Maradykovsky 17.4 Kizner /lewisite 14.2 Kambarka /lewisite (Biological Weapons Convention, BWC) antharax smallpox 50.,...,. (agents),.. WMD 6) Ibid., p

19 .,.,. CIA., CIA 2001,,,.,... WMD 1. WMD, (arms control) WMD.,,.,

20 WMD. WMD. CWC, MTCR WMD, START II, ABM.,. 7) WMD, WMD ( )? WMD ( ) ( ). (nuclear nonproliferation) (nuclear disarmament)..,,.. WMD WMD WMD (sanction), 7) Phillip C. Saunders, New Approaches to Nonproliferation: Supplementing or Supplanting the Regime? The Nonprolif eration Review (Fall-Winter 2001), pp ; and Randall Forsberg, William Driscoll, Gregory Webb, and Jonathan Dean, Nonprolif eration Primer: Preventing the Spread of Nuclear, Chemical, and Biological Weap ons (Cambridge: The MIT Press, 1995), chap

21 (counter-proliferation). 8) WMD (means) (system). WMD (export control), WMD, WMD. 9) (Phillip C. Saunders) WMD 5. 10) 5, WMD, WMD, WMD,. 5 WMD. 2. WMD, , ), ( ), p. 4. 9) Randall Forsberg, William Driscoll, Gregory Webb, and Jonatha Dean, op. cit., pp ) Pillip C. Saunders, op. cit., pp

22 ., , 4, 6. WMD, WMD,. 1990, EU WMD NPT, CWC, BWC WMD,,. 11) WMD. 12) G8. WMD 9. WMD G8 WMD. WMD 13) 11) The Basic Provisions of the Military Doctrine of the Russian Federation, 12), 70 (1996 ), pp ; National Security Concept of the Russian Federation (President's Decree No ;December 17, 1997), RIA-Novosti, Daily Review (January 9, 1998), Issue ) Non-Proliferation of Weapons of Mass Destruction--A G8 Declaration, Evian, June 1-3, 2003, p

23 . 3 BBC WMD 21 14). WMD WMD WMD WMD. 15) 1997 WMD, WMD. WMD, WMD, WMD,. WMD. 16) (Global Control System, GCS), CTBT. 1. (Vladimir Orlov Patient in Coma?: Prospects of non-proliferation following the Iraqi War, Russia in Global Aff airs, Vol. 1-No. 3 (July-September 2003), p. 104 ) 14) Ibi d. 15) Concept of the National Security of the Russian Federation Nezavisimoy e Voennoye Obozreniy e (14 January 2000). 16) The Foreign Policy Concept of the Russian Federation approved by the President Putin on June 28, 2000 from Russia's Military Doctrine ( ) from may00/dc3ma00.hym;, (, )

24 3. WMD. WMD WMD ( ) NPT, CTBT, CWC, BWC, (International Atomic Agency, IAEA). 17) NPT NPT , NPT, 4. NPT , , NPT UN NPT, ( ),,,, IAEA (Safeguards Agreement).,. NPT IAEA,. IAEA, (special inspection), NPT , NPT. 17). Center for Nonproliferation Studies, Monterey Institute of International Studies, Inventory of International Nonprolif eration Organizations and Regimes, 2000 edition (August 2000);,

25 NPT, ~5 UN 6 NPT, NPT. 5,.,,,,,. CTBT,, NPT. 18) NPT NPT, NPT, ~5 NPT.. IAEA IAEA. IAEA,. IAEA UN Atoms for Peace. IAEA , IAEA 133 NPT NPT 18),, p

26 1970, NPT 18. NPT IAEA (Voluntary-offer safeguards agreement). IAEA. NPT NPT. CWC (Chemical Weapons Convention, CWC) , UN , ,,. 19) ,,, 2007, 2012., 1960 (Agent Orange) 1980, , CWC., CWC )

27 , 1991 CWC. CWC,, ,000, , CWC, ) CWC, , 3, , CWC 4 20). CSIS, Protecting Against the Spread of Nuclear, Biological, and Chemical Weap ons: An A ction Agenda f or Global Partnership, Vol 4: Russian p ersp ectives and Priorities (January 2003), chap. 4. Destruction of Russia's Chemical Weapons, pp ; idem, Vol 2: The Challenges, chap 3: Russian Chemical Weapons Demilitarization: Successes and Challenges, pp ; and Jonathan B. Tucker, Russia's New Plan for Chemical Weapons Destruction, Arms Control Today (July/August 2001)

28 , ( : 1999 ). CWC,. 2000, , < 6> 21) ,125 5,805 12,365 20,365 28,365 36,365 40, , < 6> BWC BWC. BWC 21) Destruction of Russias Chemical Weapons, p

29 , 9,,. BWC , , )...,, BWC.., , EU BWC. CWC BWC BWC.. (export control) 23) 22),, p ) Phillip C. Saunders, op. cit., p

30 . (CoCom). (Nuclear Suppliers Group, NSG), (the Australia Group, AG), (Missile Technology Control Regime, MTCR) WMD. 24),..,,, WMD. WMD WMD., 1992 NSG,. MTCR , AG CWC. CoCom 1994, Wassenaar ).,, pp

31 . 25) 5 Wassenaar, NSG, Zangger Committee, MTCR 4.,.... (GOSPLAN), WMD WMD.,. IAEA, NSG Zangger.. MTCR,. MTCR. Leipzig Group 25). Michael Beck, Gary Bertsch, Khripurov, "The Development of Nonproliferation Export Control in Russia," World Affairs (Summer 1994), Vol. 157, Issue 1; Vladimir A. Orlov, "Export Controls and Nuclear Smuggling in Russia," from article.php3?artid=181; Vol. 4: R ussian Persp ectives and Politics, chap. 5 Export Controls

32 ) ;,,,,, ;. 1996, MEDT, MEDT ,.,, ;,, ; ;, ;,, ;,,. 1990, WMD.,,, 61,000, 26) Michael Beck, Gary Bertsch, Igor Khripunov, op. cit

33 . WMD.. WMD 27) UN, UN. 1 UN., WMD. WMD.,, WMD. WMD,. WMD,, WMD. WMD,.,,, WMD,,., 27) Phillip C. Saunders, op. ct., pp

34 .., WMD UN (UNSCOM), WMD. UN,,., WMD WMD.,,, WMD.., WMD. WMD,,,.. WMD WMD

35 , WMD,., WMD.,,,,, WMD WMD WMD. EU, NATO WMD. 28) START I START I 1,600 6,000, START I,,, START. START, 3,500, ICBMs, SLBMs 1, START START, ICBMs 2000, 28). Nuclear Status Rep ort, chap. 2: "U.S.-Russian Strategic Nuclear Negotiations and Agreements"

36 NATO 1972 ABM (National Missile Defense, NMD) , 2,000~2,500 START START. START NMD START ABM. START, ,700~2,200, 2012 (Strategic Offensive Reduction Treaty, SORT). SORT, , WMD WMD., WMD, WMD,

37 HEU, WMD. 29), WMD WMD. 1990, WMD WMD,,. WMD 11. EU, EBRD. 1992~ , START I,. WMD 1991,, Sam Nun Richard Lugar WMD Nun-Lugar Program, Nun-Lugar 4., WMD. 30) Nun-Lugar (Cooperative Threat Reduction, CTR),. WMD 29) Eliminating the Legacy of the Cold War: Background in Russian Persp ectives and Priorities, chap.. 30) Nuclear Status Rep ort, chap. 3, U.S. Nonproliferation Assistance Programs

38 ,, FZ , FZ, Vienna Convention on Civil Liability for Nuclear Damage. WMD MINATOM,,,,,,. WMD, 26, 10, 4 WMD, 1. < 7>. < 7> CTR (2002 ) 31) 1 EBRD 1 EU 1, (5 ) 2, , 5, 12 31) Eliminating the Legacy of the Cold War: Background, p

39 . WMD 1. WMD 32). 33) ~ ,000,, 5~6 25~ WMD IAEA., 200, 50.,,. 32) WMD. Joseph Cirincione, op. cit., chap. 14; db.profiles/dprk/. 33).,, ( :, 1995); Lar ry A. Niksch, "Nor th Kor ea 's Nuclear Weapons Pr og CRS I ssue Br i ef f or Congres s (June 9, 2003); Alexandre Y. Mansour ov, The Or igins, Ev and Curr ent Pol i t ics of t he Nor t h Kor ean Nuclear Pr ogr ams, The Nonpr ol i f er at i on (Spr ing-summer 1995), pp ; S. A.,, 4 ( ).,

40 < 8> 34) Name/Location of Facility Type/Status IAEA Safeguards Sinpo (Kumho) Yongbyon Yongbyon Taechon POWER REACTORS 2 light-water, 1,000- e; under construction Gas-graphite, nat. U, 5- e; operation frozen Gas-graphite, nat. U, 50- e; construction halted Gas-graphite, nat. U, 200- e; construction halted RESEARCH REACTORS Yes IAEA verifying freeze in operations IAEA verifying construction freeze IAEA verifying construction freeze IRT, Yongbyon Pool-type, HEU, 4- t; operating Yes Yongbyon Critical assembly Yes Pyongyang Subcritical assembly Yes Yongbyon Pyongyang Pyongsan Pakchon (Sanchon-Wolbingsan mine) Pyongsan Pakchon Yongbyon Yongbyon Yongbyon REPROCESSING (PLUTONIUM EXTRACTION) Partially completed; operations frozen Soviet-supplied laboratory-scale hot cells URANIUM PROCESSING Uranium mining; status unknown Uranium mining; status unknown Uranium milling; status unknown Uranium milling; status unknown Uranium purification (UO2) facility; Yes operating Fuel-fabrication facility; operations frozen Pilot-scale fuel-fabrication facility; dismantled, according to North Korean officials Yes No N/A N/A N/A N/A Yes No Abbreviations HEU: highly enriched uranium e: millions of watts of electrical output N/A: not applicable t: millions of watts of thermal output nat. U: natural uranium 34) Joseph Cirincione, op. cit., p

41 , HEU (James Kelly)., 1995 HEU.,, ) B,,. -B - B ( 320~340 1,000 ); - C ( ); ( 1, ~1,000 ), , ICBM. 1 2, -B. 35) North Korea's Chemical Profile and North Korea's Biological Profile from

42 < 9> 36) North Korean Name Alternative Name Hwas ng-5 ( -5) Scud-B Hwas ng-6 ( -6) Scud-C unknown Scud-D unknown Nodong unknown Nodong-2 Paektusan-1 ( -1) Tawpodong-1 unknown Tawpodong-2 unknown Tawpodong-3 Range( ) Payload( ) ~ , Inventory Estimate (Launcher/Missiles) 27 TELs (total) over 500 Scuds of all types 27 TELs (total) over 500 Scuds of all types 27 TELs (total) over 500 Scuds of all types At least 10 TELs About 100 Status deployed exported deployed exported deployed exported deployed exported unknown unknown unknown unknown 2, unknown unknown unknown unknown testing deployed? exported? R&D prototype testing unknown unknown unknown R&D? 2..,.,,,., 36)

43 .. 37) < 10> 38) CW Agent Type Quantity Status Phosgene Choking gas Unknown Unknown Diphosgene Choking gas Unknown Unknown Mustard Blister 1,000s of tons? Storage/deployed Lewisite Blister Unknown Unknown Phosgene oxime Blister Unknown Unknown Sarin (GB) Nerve agent 1,000s of tons? Storage/deployed Tabun (GA) Nerve agent Unknown Unknown Soman (GD) Nerve agent Unknown Unknown VX Nerve agent Unknown Unknown VG Nerve agent Unknown Unknown VM Nerve agent Unknown Unknown VE Nerve agent Unknown Unknown Cyanogen chloride Blood agent Unknown Unknown Hydrogen cyanide Blood agent Unknown Unkown BZ Psychoincapacitant Unknown Unknown Adamsite (DM) Vomiting agent Unknown Unknown Diphenylchloroarsine (DA) Vomiting agent Unknown Unknown CN Riot control agent Unknown Unknown CS Riot control agent Unknown Unknown,.,,. 37) North Korea's Chemical Profile and North Korea's Biological Profile from )

44 CWC,.,,., CIA, ~250 metric-ton, 5,000 metric-ton. < 11> 39) BW Agent Type Assessment Status Anthrax (Bacillus anthracis) Smallpox (Variola major) Bacterial spores Probable possilbly weaponized, with delivery system Virus Possible Unknown Plague (Yersinia pestis) Bacterium Unknown Unknown Cholera (Vibrio cholerae) Typhus (Rickettsia prowazekii) Botulism (Botulinum toxin) Typhoid (Salmonella typhi) Bacterium Unknown Unknown Bacterium Unknown Unknown Toxin Unknown Unknown Bacterium Unknown Unknown Hemorrhagic fevers Virus Unknown Unknown Yellow fever Virus Unlikely NA TB (Mycobacterium tuberculosis) Bacterium Unlikely NA 1960,., 39)

45 WMD.,, BWC )., , (Dubna Nuclear Research Complex). 1959, , , 1970~ ( 1970 ) 40),., ( ; ).., 19 2 (2003 ), pp

46 , IAEA, NPT. ( ) NPT, NPT , IAEA. IAEA , NPT,. IAEA NPT, ~1994 ( ),.,., ,,,,,,, IAEA (Agreed Framework), KEDO,. (

47 )., KEDO.. ( 19 ),.,,. WMD.,,. IAEA NPT. CWC, BWC.,,,

48 ,,. 20,, 21.,,,.,., ( : ) ( : ). ( : 6 ), ,

49 (package deal),,,,.. 2 (HEU) ( ~5) NPT, IAEA, ( ) NPT...,.,.,

50 . KEDO KEDO KEDO.,. ( : ) ( : ),. NPT KEDO , IAEA IAEA IAEA 1 10 NPT IAEA IAEA,

51 . NPT,, IAEA. NPT, ,, 3, ~20,.., ;, ;,.., NPT., ( , )

52 ~ ),. 3., 3,, 6 (4. 23, ) ,.. 1 6,

53 1.,,. 3, 1 ( ), 2 ( ), 3 ( ).,..,, ,...,

54 .,, , , 3,. NMD( NMD TMD MD ), TMD. (rogue states) (axis of evils), WMD ABM MD , 3.,,

55 ..,. 41) MD MD. NMD TMD,,. TMD,. MD,,,, /. 6,. 1 ( ). MD,.. 41) 9 (1999, )

56 . 1. WMD WMD,. WMD, 1970 WMD. 1980, 1980 WMD WMD WMD WMD, WMD. 3, 1990 WMD,, EU WMD WMD. CIS WMD,. 3, WMD,

57 WMD., SORT,,. SORT,,, SORT, ,. IAEA,, IAEA WMD WMD

58 PSI(Proliferation Security Initiative) PSI. PSI. PSI WMD.,. CWC, BWC,. WMD. WMD., WMD, WMD,., WMD. 2. WMD,.,. 6,

59 ,.,, NPT, MTCR, CTBT WMD., 3,.,., 10,.,, IAEA.,. 6,,

60 ..,.,,,.,.,.,. MTCR., WMD CWC.., WMD. 2 WMD

61 ., WMD. WMD, WMD WMD. WMD,. WMD 1992, EU,, (International Science and Technology Center). WMD WMD,. 1..,,.,,

62 6,,. 2,.,,,,.,

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