제 34 권제 2 호 2018 년 ( 여름 ) 통권 101 호, pp. 37-65. 케네스월츠의핵확산낙관론과북한핵문제 유진석 *..... 국문요약 북한핵문제는지금거대한전환점에서있다. 북한은지금까지 6차례의핵실험과미국본토까지도달가능한대륙간탄도미사일시험발사를통해한국은물론미국을직접핵무기로타격할수있는능력을보유하고있음을입증하였다. 한반도에서억제의안정성은유지될것인가? 북한은핵무기를직접사용하거나사용하겠다고위협하면서침략또는국지도발을일으킬것인가? 북한이핵으로공격할수있는상황에서미국이한국에제공해온기존의확장억제공약의신뢰성은유지될것인가? 미국은군사적옵션을사용하여북한의핵시설또는지도부를타격할것인가? 북한의핵사고또는승인받지않은핵무기사용가능성은있는가? 한편평창동계올림픽을계기로시작된화해무드는한반도의완전한비핵화와평화체제구축등의내용을담은남북간의판문점선언과, 북한의완전한비핵화와미국의북한에대한체제안전보장약속을담은북미간의싱가 포르공동성명으로이어졌다. 북한은향후핵무기를포기하고한국그리고미국과평화적인관계를수립할수있을것인가? 이글의목적은위의질문들에대한시사점을제공하는케네스월츠의핵확산낙관론과북한핵무장에관한그의주장을고찰하는데있다. 이를통해기존의논의에서누락되었거나암묵적으로만내재되어있는북한핵문제와관련된이론적측면들을부각시켜북한핵문제에대한객관적인이해를돕고그해결방안에미치는함의를도출한다. 먼저월츠가제시한핵확산낙관론의주요주장을세이건과의논쟁을중심으로확인하고, 북한핵문제에어떻게적용했는지를살펴본다. 마지막으로월츠의북한핵문제에대한주장들이던지는시사점과한계점들을종합적으로고찰한다. 주제어 : 케네스월츠, 핵확산, 핵확산낙관론, 핵억제, 북한핵문제 DOI: 10.17331/kwp.2018.34.2.002 **. 저서및논문 ( :, 2016, ).
38 한국과국제정치 Ⅰ. 서론. 1993~1994 1 2002~2003 2 6. 6, 2017 11 29-15 (ICBM: Intercontinental Ballistic Missile) (, 2017/11/29). 2006 10 9 1 2017 9 3 6, 6 140~250 5 (Kristensen and Norris, 2018: 45). 2016 4, 6 (, 2016/01/06). 6.. (Siegfried S. Hecker) 2017 12 16~32 20~40kg 250~500kg, (DIA: Defense Intelligence Agency) 2017 8 60 54kg 758kg (, 2017/08/10; Hecker, 2017)..
케네스월츠의핵확산낙관론과북한핵문제 39????? 2018 2 4.27, 6.12.? (Kenneth N. Waltz),. (Hans J. Morgenthau). 1979 Theory of International Politics( TIP ), TIP (Waltz, 1979).,. 1981 The Spread of Nuclear Weapons: More May Be Better, (Scott D. Sagan) The Spread of Nuclear Weapons: A Debate( SNW )
40 한국과국제정치 (Sagan and Waltz, 1995, 2003, 2013; Waltz, 1981)., -,,, (nuclear zero)..., (self-help),.,,.., (, 2016;, 2012;, 2005, 2007;, 2012;, 2015)...,
케네스월츠의핵확산낙관론과북한핵문제 41.. Ⅱ. 월츠의핵확산낙관론 1. The Spread of Nuclear Weapons: More May Be Better 와핵확산낙관론의등장 1981 (IISS: International. Institute for Strategic Studies) (The Adelphi Papers) The Spread of Nuclear Weapons: More May Be Better (Waltz, 1981).. TIP. (CIA) TIP, (Waltz and Fearon, 2012: 5). proliferation spread. proliferation,, spread (Sagan and Waltz et al.,
42 한국과국제정치 2007: 136; Waltz, 1981: 1).. 2. (pole) (Gaddis, 1987: 221-223, 231, 240-241; Mearsheimer, 1990; Waltz, 1981).?,, (Bernard Brodie) (Thomas C. Schelling) (Brodie, 1946; Schelling, 1966)...,. (Waltz, 1981: 6-7).., (sensitive to cost) (Waltz, 1981: 101).,
케네스월츠의핵확산낙관론과북한핵문제 43 (Waltz, 1981: 13).,,.,, (Idi Amin) (Muammar el-qaddafi) (Waltz, 1981: 11). 2 (second strike capability), 2 (Waltz, 1981: 18).,, (Waltz, 1981: 18)... (center), (periphery) (Waltz, 1981: 18).., (Waltz, 1981: 91). 2
44 한국과국제정치, (Waltz, 1981: 30)...,..,, (Waltz, 1981: 30). 2. 월츠와세이건의핵확산논쟁, 1995 The Spread of Nuclear Weapons: A Debate. 1). 1) 1995 SNW 1981 1, 1994 The Perils of Proliferation 2. 3 4. 2003 2, -. 2013 3,,, (Sagan and Waltz, 1995, 2003, 2013).
케네스월츠의핵확산낙관론과북한핵문제 45 (transition period), 2, (Sagan and Waltz, 2013: 45).,.., 2,,,, 2,.,. (Sagan and Waltz, 2013: 18-19)., (Waltz, 2013: 97-98).,.
46 한국과국제정치 2, (minimum deterrence) 2. 2.,. (Charles Perrow) (normal accident theory), (Sagan and Waltz, 2013: 67-69). SNW 2. 1998 5 5 6. (Kashmir) (Kargil) (Kargil conflict),. (Glenn Snyder) - (stability-instability paradox),, (Sagan and Waltz, 2013: 143-144).
케네스월츠의핵확산낙관론과북한핵문제 47,,. (skirmishes) (Waltz, 2013: 163). Ⅲ. 월츠의북한핵문제분석? SNW,,. SNW 2, 1 3. 1. SNW 초판과 2 판에나타난월츠의북한핵문제인식 SNW. 1994 1 (Jimmy Carter) 7 (Sagan and Waltz, 1995: 37)..,,
48 한국과국제정치 (Sagan and Waltz, 1995: 38-39). 1950,,. W. (George W. Bush) 2, (Sagan and Waltz, 2003: 150).,...? (Waltz, 1995: 39). 1950 (Dean Acheson), (Douglas MacArthur),,. (Sagan and Waltz, 1995: 39).., (Waltz, 1995: 39).
케네스월츠의핵확산낙관론과북한핵문제 49,, (Waltz, 1995: 39). 2)..,,,,., (Waltz, 1995: 40-41).,., 1, (Sagan and Waltz, 2003: 38)., 2,. 2) :..,.. (Halliday and Rosenberg, 1998).
50 한국과국제정치 2 (Waltz, 2003: 142). (Waltz, 1995: 110).,, (Sagan and Waltz, 2003: 21). SNW 2.. 2005, 2006 2009 2, SNW 3. 2. SNW 3 판에나타난월츠의북한핵문제인식 2013 SNW 3,. W..,
케네스월츠의핵확산낙관론과북한핵문제 51, (Saddam Hussein) (Waltz, 2013: 186-187). SNW 3.,.,, 1.21,,. (annoyance) (Sagan and Waltz, 2013: 185)..,..., (Waltz, 2013: 188).,, (PSI: Proliferation Security Initiative). 3 (A. Q. Khan), (Waltz, 2013: 189).
52 한국과국제정치, 1, 2, (Waltz, 2013: 189).,,. (Waltz, 2013: 187).,, (Waltz, 2013: 190-191). Ⅳ. 월츠의핵확산낙관론이북한핵문제에주는시사점과한계점....
케네스월츠의핵확산낙관론과북한핵문제 53 1. 월츠의핵확산낙관론이북한핵문제에주는시사점.,.,.,, (Sagan, 1996-1997: 57-63).,.. (like unit).,.,,....
54 한국과국제정치. (Sagan and Waltz, 2013: 37). (2018 4 27 ) (2018 6 12 ), (Donald J. Trump)... (CVID: Complete, Verifiable, Irreversible Dismantlement), (CVIG: Complete, Verifiable, Irreversible Guarantee).,,,.
케네스월츠의핵확산낙관론과북한핵문제 55. 1994 2005 6 9.19,.,..., (, 2016: 18;, 2017: 98). LA?.,..?.. 100%. 100%.
56 한국과국제정치,.,. 2. 월츠의핵확산낙관론의한계점 100%.. 0%...,.... 60,000, 7,000. 2,
케네스월츠의핵확산낙관론과북한핵문제 57. (fuzzy thinking) (Waltz, 1990: 731).?.,,..,,. (use it or lose it).. (Kill Chain) (KMPR: Korea Massive Punishment and Retaliation)
58 한국과국제정치.,., 3)..,,. (Peter D. Feaver) (assertive), (delegative) (Feaver, 1992-1993: 168-169). (never), (decapitation strike).. (always),. (trade-off)., 3). (, 2016/03/16);. (, 2016/03/31).
케네스월츠의핵확산낙관론과북한핵문제 59, (, 2005: 104-107)., 1,, (, 2017: 113-122;, 2005: 107-110). 2013 4 1 4., 1., (deterrence optimism) (proliferation fatalism) (Sagan and Waltz et al., 2007: 138-139)..,. (wishful thinking),.
60 한국과국제정치 Ⅴ. 결론...,.,.....,.,. (Voltaire) (Candide). (the best of all possible worlds)..
케네스월츠의핵확산낙관론과북한핵문제 61. 100%,.,,. (Sherlock Holmes) (Silver Blaze) (the dog that did not bark).,... 100% 100%. 100% 0%...,..
62 한국과국제정치... 투고일 : 2018년 5월 1일 심사일 : 2018년 5월 24일 게재확정일 : 2018년 6월 11일 참고문헌. 2016,,, 22 3 : 37-59.. 2017,, :,, 20 3 : 99-137.. 2016, ( ), Strategy 21, 19 1 : 5-46.. 2017,,, 22 2 : 85-114.. 2012, (1945~2009),, 52 3 : 257-286.. 2005, - :,, 11 2 : 97-111.. 2007, : 21,, 15 2 : 280-309.. 2012,,, 12 1 : 1-31.. 2015, :,, 24 1 : 141-167.
케네스월츠의핵확산낙관론과북한핵문제 63, 2016 1 6, 2017 11 29., 2016 3 16, 3 31., 2017 8 10. Brodie, Bernard. 1946, War in the Atomic Age, The Absolute Weapon: Atomic Power and World Order (New York, NY: Harcourt, Branace and Company): 21-69. Feaver, Peter D. 1992-1993, Command and Control in Emerging Nuclear Nations, International Security, Vol. 17, No. 3: 160-187. Gaddis, John Lewis. 1987, The Long Peace: Inquiries into the History of the Cold War (New York, NY: Oxford University Press). Halliday, Fred and Justin Rosenberg. 1998, Interview with Ken Waltz, Review of International Studies, Vol. 24, No. 3: 371-386. Hecker, Siegfried S. 2017, What We Really Know About North Korea s Nuclear Weapons, And What We Don t Yet Know For Sure, Foreign Affairs, December 4, https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/north-korea/2017-12-04/what-wereally-know-about-north-koreas-nuclear-weapons (2017/12/11). Kristensen Hans M. and Robert S. Norris. 2018, North Korean Nuclear Capabilities, 2018, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, Vol. 74, No. 1: 41-51. Mearsheimer, John J. 1990, Back to the Future: Instability in Europe After the Cold War, International Security, Vol. 15, No. 1: 5-56. Sagan, Scott D. 1994, The Perils of Proliferation: Organization Theory, Deterrence Theory, and the Spread of Nuclear Weapons, International Security, Vol. 18, No. 4: 66-107.. 1996-1997, Why Do States Build Nuclear Weapons?: Three Models in Search of a Bomb, International Security, Vol. 21, No. 3: 54-86. Sagan, Scott D. and Kenneth N. Waltz. 1995, The Spread of Nuclear Weapons: A Debate (New York, NY: W. W. Norton & Company).. 2003, The Spread of Nuclear Weapons: A Debate Renewed (New York, NY: W. W. Norton & Company).. 2013, The Spread of Nuclear Weapons: An Enduring Debate, 3rd ed. (New York, NY: W. W. Norton & Company). Sagan, Scott D., Kenneth N. Waltz, and Richard K. Betts. 2007, A Nuclear Iran:
64 한국과국제정치 Promoting Stability or Courting Disaster? Journal of International Affairs, Vol. 60, No. 2: 135-150. Schelling, Thomas C. 1966, Arms and Influence (New Haven, CT: Yale University Press). Waltz, Kenneth N. 1979, Theory of International Politics (Reading, MA: Addison- Wesley).. 1981, The Spread of Nuclear Weapons: More May Be Better, The Adelphi Papers, Vol. 21, No. 171 (London, UK: IISS).. 1990, Nuclear Myths and Political Realities, American Political Science Review, Vol. 84, No. 3: 731-745. Waltz, Kenneth N. and James Fearon. 2012, A Conversation with Kenneth Waltz, Annual Review of Political Science, Vol. 15: 1-12.
케네스월츠의핵확산낙관론과북한핵문제 65 Abstract Kenneth N. Waltz s Proliferation Optimism and North Korea s Nuclear Weapons Jinseog Yu The implications of North Korea s six nuclear tests and successful test launch of the Hwasong-15, which can strike the U.S. homeland are multifaced; will the stability of deterrence on the Korean peninsula be maintained?; will North Korea use or threaten to use nuclear weapons as it invades South Korea or starts local military provocations near the border between the two countries?; how credible is U.S. nuclear extended deterrence provided to South Korea now that North Korea has the capability to directly attack the U.S. homeland with nuclear-tipped ICBMs?; will the U.S. resort to military options of striking North Korea s nuclear facilities and leadership?; is there a chance that nuclear accident or unauthorized use of nuclear weapons may happen in the North Korea because of the problem with command and control of its nuclear arsenal? Meanwhile, a drastic turn of events started by the PyeongChang 2018 Olympic Winter Games culminated in the two Korea s Panmunjom Declaration and the U.S.-North Korea Singapore Summit Meeting in which the North Korea committed complete denuclearization and the U.S. promised to provide security guarantees toward the North Korea. Will North Korea give up its nuclear weapons and develop peaceful relations with both South Korea and the U.S. in the near future? The purpose of this study is to examine Kenneth N. Waltz s proliferation optimism and his optimistic position on nuclear armed North Korea, which shed light on the aforementioned questions. Through the analysis of Waltz s argument, this study aims to provide a basis for better understanding of the various issues of North Korea s nuclear weapons and find a solution to the North Korea nuclear problem. Key words: Kenneth N. Waltz, Proliferation, Proliferation Optimism, Nuclear Deterrence, North Korea s Nuclear Weapons