Korean Energy Economic Review Volume 12, Number 2 KOREAN RESOURCE ECONOMICS ASSOCIATION KOREA ENERGY ECONOMICS INSTITUTE September 2013 The first-mover advantage model and empirical test on nuclear power industry / Namyil Kim, Daeyoun Lee and Sunung Moon An Analysis of the Impact of Global Warming on Residential Energy Consumption: Focused on the Case of Electricity Consumption / HyunJin Lim, Sukwan Jung and DooHwan Won Sectoral Energy Consumption and Economic Growth in Korea / Kihyun Park and Jinkyeong Kim A Study on Economic Growth Accounting considering Environmental Regulation / Won-Kyu Kim and Jin Woong Kim Analysis for Conditional Loan System on Overseas Oil and Gas E&P Project / Jihyo Kim and Yoon Kyung Kim New Market-Based Mechanisms in Post-Kyoto Protocol / Heechan Kang KOREAN ENERGY ECONOMIC REVIEW Korean Energy Economic Review
KOREAN ENERGY ECONOMIC REVIEW Korean Energy Economic Review
차 례 에너지경제연구제 12 권제 2 호 김남일, 이대연, 문선웅 임현진, 정수관, 원두환 박기현, 김진경 김원규, 김진웅 김지효, 김윤경 강희찬
에너지경제연구 Korean Energy Economic Review Volume 12, Number 2, September 2013 : pp. 1~31 원전산업에서의선발자이득모형과 실증분석 1
2
3
< 표 1> 원전건설현황및계획 (~2030년), 2013.1.1. 기준 < 그림 1> 원자력르네상스 ( 원자로건설기수 ) 4
< 표 2> 후쿠시마사고이후각국원전정책변화 5
~ 6
< 표 3> 원전업체별강약점분석 7
8
max max 9
10
11
12
max max 13
14
15
16
[ 그림 2] 주기기공급자인수합병현황 17
18
~ 19
[ 그림 3] 원전업체별시장점유율추이 (10 년단위 ) [ 그림 4] 원전업체별세계시장점유율 (2011 년설비용량기준 ) < 표 4> 4 개원전업체의전세계시장평균점유율 (1954 년 ~2011 년 ) 20
~ ~ ~ 21
< 표 5> 다중회귀모형분석결과 : 34 개국대상 22
< 표 6> 다중회귀모형분석결과 : 30 개국대상 23
< 표 7> 고정효과모형분석결과 24
25
26
그림 부록 비용격차크기와수요의변동성간의균형조건 27
28
< 부표 > 4 개원전업체의국가별진입연도 29
. 2009.. 2010., No.1,. 2010.. 2009. 2009(). 2010.. 2011.,. 2007. Albaek, S. 1990. Stackelberg Leadership as a Natural Solution under Cost Uncertainty The Journal of Industrial Economics. Berger, A. and Dick, A. 2007. Entry into Banking Markets and the Early-Mover Advantage Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Vol. 39, No. 4. IAEA. 2012. Nuclear Power Reactors in the World 2012. Kultti, K., and Niinimäki, J. 1998. Demand Uncertainty in a Cournot Duopoly Finnish Journal of Business Economics, Vol. 21. Liberman, M. and Montgomery, D. 1987. First-Mover Advantages Research Paper, Stanford University. Power etrack, www.poweretrack.com. WNA, 2013. World Nuclear Power Reactors & Uranium Requirements www.world-nuclear.org. 30
ABSTRACT As Korea Electric Power Cooperation(KEPCO) successfully won nuclear power plant construction deals in the UAE in December 2009, Korea has become the sixth nuclear power plant exporter in the world. The UAE project is the first of its kind in the Middle East since the Bushehr plant project in Iran, putting Korea in the leading position in the nuclear industry in the Middle East. This study conducts theoretical examination as to how the first-mover advantage is influenced by the demand uncertainties and the cost gaps, It also carries out an empirical analysis on the effects of the first-mover advantage based on the relevant data in nuclear power plant construction sector for the past 60 years. The research findings of this study suggest that the first-mover advantage does have meaningful influences. This implies that the Korea s nuclear industry should redouble its efforts to fully utilize the first-mover advantage so as to win further nuclear plant construction deals in the Middle East in the future. Key Words : Nuclear power plant industry, First-mover advantage, Nuclear power reactor in the Middle East, Demand uncertainty, Cost gaps JEL Codes : Q4, C5 31
에너지경제연구 Korean Energy Economic Review Volume 12, Number 2, September 2013 : pp. 33~58 지구온난화가가정부문에너지소비량에미치는 영향분석 : 전력수요를중심으로 33
~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ 34
~ 35
~ 36
~ 37
< 표 1> 변수들의기초통계량 ~ ~ ~ ~ 38
[ 그림 1] 로그변수들의시간에대한추세 39
< 표 2> 단위근검정결과 40
ln ln ln ln ln ln ln ln ln ln ln ln ln 41
< 표 3> ARDL- 한계검정결과 ln ln ln ln ln ln ln ln ln ln ln ln ln ln ln ln ~ 42
ln ln ln ln ln ln ln ln ln ln ln ln ln 43
< 표 4> ARDL 가정용전력수요함수추정 44
시계열상관이없다 는귀무가설에대하여 Breusch-Godfrey LM test 를실행한결과역시귀무가설을기각하는하는것으로, 시계열상관이있는것으로나타났다. 시계열상관문제를다루고자 Newey-West 표준오차를이용하였다. 이때의 Newey-West 표준오차는일치추정량이된다. 45
[ 그림 2] 장기가정용전력수요함수의잔차항추이 ln ln ln ln ln ln ln 13) 식 (4) 의오차수정모형의도출과정은부록에설명되어있다. 46
< 표 5> 단기가정용전력수요함수추정 47
48
[ 그림 3] 49
[ 그림 4] 50
51
접수일 (2013 년 3 월 4 일 ), 수정일 (2013 년 6 월 11 일 ), 게재확정일 (2013 년 7 월 2 일 ) 52
. 2011... 2011... 2000.... 2012.... 2009.... 1986.... 2006... Al-Faris, A. R. 2002. The Demand for Electricity in the GCC Countries. Energy Policy 30 : pp117-124. Beenstock, M., E. Goldin and D. Nabot. 1999. The Demand for Electricity in Israel. Energy Economics 21 : pp168-183. Egelioglu, F., A. A. Mohamad and H. Guven. 2001. Economic Variables and Electricity Consumption in Northern Cyprus. Energy : pp355-362. Engle, R. F., and C. W. Granger. 1987. Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing. Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society 55 : pp251-276. Filippini, M. 1999. Swiss Residential Demand for Electricity. Applied Economics Letters 6 : pp533-538. Fullerton, T. M., D. A. Juarez and A. G. Walke. 2012. Residential Electricity Consumption in Seattle. Energy Economics 34 : pp1693-1699. Glickman, T. 2000. Glossary of Meteorology. 2d ed : Amer. Meteor. Soc. Halicioglu, F. 2007. Residential Electricity Demand Dynamics in Turkey. Energy Economics 29 : pp199-210. 53
Houthkker, H. S. 1951. Some Calculations on Electricity Consumption in Great Britain. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society 114 : pp359-371. IPCC. 2007. Fourth Assessment Report: Climate Change(AR4). MRCC. cited 2007. Weather Terminology. Midwestern Regional Climate Center. [http://mrcc.sws.uiuc.edu/resources_links/wxfaq5.htm.] Narayan, P. K. 2005. The Saving and Investment Nexus for China: Evidence for Cointegration Test. Applied Economics 37 : pp1979-1990. Narayan, P. K. and R. Smyth. 2005. The Residential Demand for Electricity in Australia: An Application of the Bounds Testing Approach to Cointegration. Energy Policy 33 : pp467-474. Nasr, G., E. A. Badr and G. Dibeh. 2000. Econometric Modelling of Electricity consumption in Post-war Lebanon. Energy economics 22 : pp627-640. Newey, W. K., and K. D. West. 1987. A Simple, Positive Semi-definite, Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix. Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society, 55 : pp703-708. Pesaran, M. H. and B. Pesaran. 1997. Working with Microfit 4.0: Interactive Econometric Analysis. Oxford : Oxford University Press. Pesaran M. H. and Y. Shin. 1999. An Autoregressive Distributed Lag Modelling Approach to Cointegration Analysis, Oxford : Oxford University Press. Pesaran, M. H., Y. Shin and R. J. Smith. 2001. Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships. Journal of Applied Econometrics 16 : pp289-326. Rajan, M. and V. K. Jain. 1999. Modelling of Electrical Energy Consumption in Delhi. Energy 24 : pp351-361. Shin, J. S. 1985. Perception of Price When Price Information is Costly: Evidence from Residential Electricity Demand. The Review of Economics and Statistics 67 : pp591-598. York, R. 2007. Demographic Trends and Energy Consumption in European Union Nations, 1960-2025. Social Science Research 36 : pp.855-872. 54
부록 ln ln ln ln ln ln ln ln ln ln ln ln ln 55
ln ln ln ln ln ln ln ln ln ln ln ln ln ln ln ln ln ln ln ln 56
ln ln ln ln ln ln ln ln ln ln ln ln ln ln ln ln ln ln 57
ABSTRACT The annual average temperature has increased because of climate change due to global warming. This constant rise in temperature is expected to continue. Climatic change can affect social and economic features including energy consumption. This paper analyzes how global warming makes an effect on residential electricity demand. The long and short-run demands for residential electricity were estimated with the ARDL model and Error correction model. The results show that CDD(Cooling Degree Days) variables significantly have an effect on residential electricity demand. But electricity demand is not influenced by HDD(Heating Degree Days). If 1% of CDD increase, the residential electricity consumption will rise 0.35% in the long-run and 0.11% in the short-run. The effect of CDD on the residential electricity demand in the long-run is larger than in the short-run. Key Words : Global warming, Residental electricity demand, ARDL JEL Codes : Q47 58
에너지경제연구 Korean Energy Economic Review Volume 12, Number 2, September 2013 : pp. 59~83 부문별에너지소비와경제성장의 인과관계분석 59
60
61
< 표 1> 주요경제및에너지지표변화, 1990 년 2011 년 ~ [ 그림 1] 우리나라의경제및에너지관련주요지표변화, 1990 년 ~2011 년 62
63
64
65
66
67
68
2) 여기서소표본이라함은약 25 35 개의표본을지칭한다. 69
< 표 2> 단위근검정결과 70
71
< 표 3> 산업부문의 Johansen 검정의공적분검정결과 < 표 4> 수송부문의 Johansen 검정의공적분검정결과 72
< 표 5> 가정 상업부문의 Johansen 검정의공적분검정결과 73
< 표 6> Granger 인과관계검정결과 74
< 표 7> 산업부문오차수정모형추정결과 75
< 표 8> 가정 상업부문오차수정모형추정결과 76
77
접수일 (2013 년 6 월 12 일 ), 게재확정일 (2013 년 8 월 12 일 ) 78
. 1998. :. 1.. 2003.. 12 2.. 2011... 2001. : CO 2. 49 1. Abosedra, S. and H. Baghestani. 1991. New evidence on the causal relationship between United States energy consumption and gross national product. Journal of Energy and Development, Vol.14, pp.285~292 Akarca, A. T. and T. V. Long. 1980. On the relationship between energy and GNP: a re-examination. Journal of Energy and Development, Vol.5, pp.326~331 Apergis, N., Payne, J.E. 2009. Energy consumption and economic growth in Central America: evidence from a panel cointegration and error correction model. Energy Economics 31, 211216. Chen, S.-T., Kuo, H.-I., Chen, C.-C. 2007. The relationship between GDP and electricity consumption in 10 Asian Countries. Energy Policy 35, 26112621. Cheng, B.S. 1997. Energy Consumption and Economic Growth in brazil, Mexico, and Venezula: A Time Series Analysis. Applied Economics, Letters Vol.4, Engle, R. F. and C.W.J. Granger. 1987. Cointegration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing. Econometrica, 55, 251-276. Glasure, Y. U. 2002. Energy and National Income in Korea: Further Evidence on the Role of Omitted Variable. Energy Economics, 24, 355-365. 79
Granger, C. W. J. 1969. Investigating Causal Relation By Econometric and Cross-Sectional Method. Econometrica, 37, 424-438. Gonzalo, J. 1994. Comparison of Five Alternative Methods of Estimating Long-Run Equilibrium, Relationships. Journal of Economics, Vol.60, No. 12, pp.203~233. Ho, C-Y., Siu, K.W. 2007. A dynamic equilibrium of electricity consumption and GDP in Hong Kong: an empirical investigation. Energy Policy 35. 4), 25072513. Hwang, D.B.K and B. Gum. 1991. The causal relationship between energy and GNP: the case of Taiwan. Journal of Energy and Development, Vol.16, pp.219~226 Johansen, S. and K. Juselius. 1990. Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration with Application to the Demand for Money. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 52, 169-210. Jumbe, C.B.L. 2004. Cointegration and causality between electricity consumption and GDP: empirical evidence from Malawi. Energy Economics 26, 6168. Karanfil, F. 2008. Energy consumption and economic growth revisited: does the size of unrecorded economy matter?. Energy Policy 36 (8), 30293035. Kraft, J. and Kraft A. 1978. On the Relationship Between Energy and GNP. Journal of Energy and Development, 3, 401-403. Lee, C. C. 2005. Energy Consumption and GDP in Developing Countries: A Co-integrated Panel Analysis. Energy Economics, 27, 415-427. Lee, C. C. and C. P. Chang. 2007. Energy Consumption and GDP Revisited: A Panel Analysis of Developed and Developing Countries. Energy Economics, 29, 1206-1223. Maddala, G.S. 1992. Introduction to Econometrics, Macmillan. Masih, A.M.M. and R. Masih. 1996. Energy Consumption, Real Income and Temporal Causality: Results from a Multi-Country Study Based on Cointegration and Error-Correction Modelling Techniques. Energy Economics, 18, 165-183. Mozumder, P. and Marathe, A. 2007. Causality Relationship Between Electricity Consumption and GDP in Bangladesh. Energy Policy, 35, 395-402. 80
Oh, W. K. and Kihoon Lee. 2004a. Causal Relationship Between Energy Consumption and GDP Revisited: the Case of Korea 1970-1999. Energy Economics, 26, 51-59.. 2004b. Energy Consumption and Economic Growth in Korea: Testing the Causality Relation. Journal of Policy Modelling, 26, 973-981. Perman. P. 1991. Cointegratuib: An Introduction to the Literature. Journal of Economic Studies, Vol.18, No 3, pp.3~20. Shiu, A., Lam, P. 2004. Electricity consumption and economic growth in China. Energy Policy 32, 4754. 4 Sims, C. A. 1972. Money, Income and Causality. American Economic Review, September, 540-552. Soytas, U. and Sari, R. 2003. Energy Consumption and GDP: Causality Relationship in G7 Countries and Emerging Markets. Energy Economics, 25, 33-37. Squalli, J. 2007. Electricity consumption and economic growth: bounds and causality analyses for OPEC members. Energy Economics 29, 11921205. Stern, D. I. 1993. Energy and Growth in the U.S.: A Multivariate Approach. Energy Economics, 15, 136-150. Stewart, Kenneth G. 2005. Introduction to Econometrics, Thomson, 2005. Toda, H. Y. and Phillips, P. C. 1993. Vector Autoregressions and Causality. Econometrica, 61, 1367-1393. Yoo, S. 2005. Electricity consumption and economic growth: evidence from Korea. Energy Policy 33, 16271632. Yu, E. S. H. and J. Y. Choi. 1985. The Causal Relationship Between Energy and GNP: An International Comparison. Journal of Energy and Development, 10, 249-272. Yu, E. S. H. and B. K. Hwang. 1984. The Relationship Between Energy and GNP: Further Results. Energy Economics, 6(3), 186-190. Yu, E. S. H. and J. C. Jin. 1992. Co-integration Tests of Energy Consumption, Income and Employment. Resource and Energy, 14(3), 259-266. 81
Zachariadis, Theodoros. 2007. Exploring the Relationship Between Energy Use and Economic Growth with Bivariate Models: New Evidence from G-7 Countries. Energy Economics, 29, 1233-1253. Zhang, Xing-Ping, Cheng, Xiao-Mei. 2009. Energy consumption, carbon emissions, and economic growth in China. Ecological Economics 68 (10), 27062712. 82
ABSTRACT This study examines the relationship between sectoral energy consumption and economic growth for Korea from 1991 to 2011 employing the vector error-correction model estimation. With respect to the direction of causality, industrial sector is uni-directional running from energy consumption to economic growth in long term as well as short term. Transport sector, on the other hand, real GDP growth leads to energy use only in short term. Lastly, there is bidirectional causality between energy consumption and real GDP in residential and commercial sector. These findings have important policy implications, since the adoption of suitable structural policies can induce energy conservation. Key Words : Sectoral energy consumption, Economic growth, Granger causality, Vector error correction model JEL Codes : C22, L94, Q43, Q48 83
에너지경제연구 Korean Energy Economic Review Volume 12, Number 2, September 2013 : pp. 85~117 환경규제를고려한우리나라 경제성장요인에대한연구 * 85
~ 86
[ 그림 1] 경제위기이후의시나리오별성장경로 87
~ 88
Υ α α α Δ Δ Δ αδ αδ ~ ~ α α α 89
α α α < 표 1> 경제성장의요인별분해 ( 모형 1) 90
91
Υ α α α α α α αα [ 그림 2] 순자본스톡비율의추이 3.2 KY 2.8 2.4 2.0 1.6 1.2 0.8 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 92
Δ αδ ααδ Δ αδ Δ ααδ ~ 93
< 표 2> 경제성장의요인별분해 ( 모형 2) ϕ Υ α αα α αα ϕ α αα ϕ 94
ϕ ϕ Δ αδ ααδ Δϕ αδ Δ ααδ ϕ ϕ ε ϕ ε ϕ ϕ ε 95
Δ Δ ~ < 표 3> 추정결과 ε [ 그림 3] ϕ 의추세 8,000,000 PSI 7,500,000 7,000,000 6,500,000 6,000,000 5,500,000 5,000,000 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 96
ϕ < 표 4> 경제성장의요인별분해 ( 모형 3) ϕ ϕ ~ ϕ ϕ ϕ 97
Υ α αα αα ηα α η η η θ η θ 7) 도출과정은 < 부록 1> 에수록함. 98
Δ Δ ααδ Δ Δ ααδ ααδ αα ε η η η η ηα 99
η < 표 5> NLLS 추정결과 αα ~ 100
< 표 6> 경제성장의요인별분해 ( 모형 4) ϕ Υ αα αα ϕ αα ϕ αα ϕ ηα 101
ααδ ααδ Δ Δ ααδ Δϕ Δ < 표 7> 경제성장의요인별분해 ( 모형 5) ϕ ϕ ~ ϕ 102
ϕ 103
Υ βγ β γ γ Δ Δ βγδ βδ γδ γδ 104
Δ γδ Δ βγδ βδ γδ γ γ Δ βγδ βδ γδ υ υ Δ γδ γ β γαγ βαγ Υ βγ β γ α α γ γ αγ αγ γ α 105
γ Δ Δ γδ αβγδ αβδ γδ αγδ αγδ γδ γαδ Δ αδ Δ γ αδ Δ αδ Δ γ < 표 8> 탄소배출비용비중 (γ) 추정결과 ~ 106
< 표 9> 경제성장의요인별분해 ( 모형 6) 107
108
109
접수일 (2013 년 8 월 20 일 ), 수정일 (2013 년 9 월 14 일 ), 게재확정일 (2013 년 9 월 25 일 ) 110
. 2004., e-kiet, 204, 6.22,.. 2009., e-kiet, 442, 8.3,.. 2009.,, 9, 16-26,.. 2009., e-kiet, 463, 12.18,.. 2010., e-kiet, 470, 1.20,.. 2004., e-kiet, 214, 7.26,..,.,,. Cho. T, J. Kim, and P. Schreyer. 2012. Measuring the Evolution of Korea 's Material Living Standards 1980-2010, OECD Statistics Working Papers, 2012/02, OECD Publishing. Córdoba, J. C. and M. Ripoll. 2008. "Endogenous TFP and Cross-Country Income Differences," Journal of Monetary Economics, 55, 1158-1170. Furceri, D. and A. Mourougane. 2009. "The Effect of Financial Crisis on Potential Output: New Empirical Evidence from OECD Countries," Economic Department Working Paper, No. 699, May. European Commission. 2009. "Impact of the Current Economic and Financial Crisis on Potential Output," Occasional Paper, 49. 111
Daude, C. and E. Fernández-Arias. 2010. "On the Role of Productivity and Factor Accumulation in Economic Development in Latin American and the Caribbean," Working Paper, No. 290, April, OECD Development Center. Hall, R., and C. I. Jones(1999), "Why Do Some Countries Produce So Much More Output Per Worker than Others?" Quarterly Journal of Economics, 114, 83-116. IEA(International Energy Agency). 2009. CO2 Emissions From Fuel Combustion- Highlights. Klenow, J. P. and A. Rodriguez-Clare. 2004. "Externalities and Growth," NBER Working Paper, 11009, December. Mankiw, N. G., D. Romer, and D. Weil. 1992. "A Contribution to the Empirics of Economic Growth," Quarterly Journal of Economics, 107, 407-437. Solow, P. M. 1956. "A Contribution to the Theory of Economic Growth," Quarterly Journal of Economics, 70, 65-94. Tzouvelekas, E., D. Vouvaki and A. Xepapadeas. 2007. "Total Factor Productivity Growth and the Environment: A Case for Green Growth Accounting," Working Paper, 38.2007, April, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei. Vouvaki, D. and A. Xepapadeas. 2009. "Total Factor Productivity Growth When Factors of Production Generate Environmental Externalties," Working Paper 20.2009, April, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei. 112
Υ α α α αα δ δ η θ η θ Υ α αα η θα αα 113
δ δ δ ηθα ηθα ηθα η θα ηθα η ααη Υ α ηα ααηα αα ηα α ηα 114
η θ η θ η θα αα θα αα η θ ηθ ηθ ηθ 115
θα αα θα αα θα αα η αα η αα ηθα η αα η η αα αα ε η αα η η 116
ABSTRACT In this study, we build six models which are based on different assumptions in production function and try to decompose economic growth by production factors. The first five production function models are differentiated according to the assumption of endogeneity in traditional production factors. And the last model considers the case that an economy pays for carbon emission. The empirical results based on the first five models provide that it is necessary for us to maintain the growth rate of TFP for expanding an economic growth potential. Also, the empirical results imply that an economy should figure out and resolve the systematic problems for increasing investment and job creation. From the empirics in the last model, in case that an environmental regulation is imposed, then the growth rate of green TFP will be lower than the growth rate of a traditional TFP. In fact, the introduction of green regulations is possible to induce an improvement in a green technology. On the other hand, a green regulation might be lower the competitiveness of our economy, transitionally. It is hereby recommended to enhance a green technology prior to an allover introduction of green regulation. Key Words : Economic Growth, Growth Accounting, Total Factor Productivity, Green Total Factor Productivity, Carbon Emission JEL Codes : O040, O044 117
에너지경제연구 Korean Energy Economic Review Volume 12, Number 2, September 2013 : pp. 119~145 해외석유 가스개발사업에대한성공불융자의 지원효과분석연구 119
120
121
122
123
124
125
~ < 표 1> 석유 가스개발사업중조사 탐사사업들의단계별구분 (1981~2011) ~ 126
[ 그림 1] 석유 가스개발사업들의조사 탐사사업추이 (1981~2011) ~ 127
< 표 2> 석유 가스개발사업의조사 탐사사업들에대한투자실적 (1983~2011) ~ 128
[ 그림 2] 석유 가스개발사업조사 탐사사업에대한투자액추이 (1983~2011) ~ 129
130
131
132
133
134
ln ln ln ln i f ln i f ln 135
ln ln ln ln ln i f ln i f ln ln ln ln ln i f ln i f ln 136
ln ln ln ln ln i f ln i f ln ~ ~ 137
< 표 3> 가설 1 에대한추정결과 ln ln 138
< 표 4> 가설 2 에대한추정결과 ln ln 139
~ ~ 140
141
접수일 (2013 년 4 월 26 일 ), 게재확정일 (2013 년 7 월 1 일 ) 142
. 2006... 2009.. 93 : 209-211.. 2010.. 47(4): 440-449.. 2005.. ().. 2002. 2 (2002~2011). 11-1410000-000585-14.. 2000.... 2009.... 2008.. 45(2): 101-111.. 2012.... 2010.. 47(4): 450-456.. 2008. :... 2009..., 2009,.. Greene, W. H. 2011. Econometric Analysis, 7-th ed. Prentice Hall. Amemiya, T. 1985. Advanced Econometrics. Harvard University Express. Gujarati, D. N. and Porter, D. C. 2008. Basic Econometrics, 5-th ed. McGraw-Hill/Irwin. 143
McFadden, D. 1973 Conditional Logit Analysis of Qualitative Choice Behavior. in Zarembka, P.(ed.), Frontiers in Econometrics. Academic Press., http://www.law.go.kr, http://mke.go.kr, http://www.emrd.or.kr 144
ABSTRACT The conditional loan system aims to promote the firms participation in the exploration projects and thus, to carry the overseas resource development forward. Applying a tobit model, this study analyzes whether the conditional loan system has contributed to promoting the overseas oil and gas exploration projects from 1983 to 2011. The empirical results show that 1% increase in the loan yields both 0.5% increase in the number of exploration projects and 1.1~1.3% increase in the number of exploration projects where Korean firms participate as operators. However, increases in the firm own investment do not have significant impacts on increases in the number of exploration projects. These results mean that the conditional loan system plays a key role in the decision-making of a firm and that this system effectively induces the participation as an operator. Thus, the conditional loan system is valuable from the perspective of its own purpose. Key Words : Overseas resource E&P, Conditional loan system, Tobit model JEL Codes : H5, C5 145
에너지경제연구 Korean Energy Economic Review Volume 12, Number 2, September 2013 : pp. 147~178 포스트교토체제의신규시장메커니즘논의와 발전방향 147
148
149
150
151
152
~ 153
154
< 표 1> 신규시장메커니즘과제안국가 155
156
~ ~ 157
[ 그림 1] SCM 에서배출권산정방식 ( 예시 ) 158
159
160
161
[ 그림 2] 양국간옵셋크레딧방식 (BOCM) 의운영체계 162
163
[ 그림 3] CDM 와 NAMA 크레딧의거버넌스비교 164
165
< 표 2> 제안된신규시장메커니즘들간비교 166
167
168
169
170
171
172
173
접수일 (2013 년 6 월 3 일 ), 수정일 (2013 년 8 월 21 일 ), 게재확정일 (2013 년 9 월 3 일 ) 174
. 2012.,, Post-Kyoto (2012.10.11).. 2008. Carbon Credit for NAMA, 6 CDM (2008.6.27) Baron. R et al. 2009.6. Sectoral Approaches and the carbon Market, IEA CCAP, CEPS, CCC, ZEW, IDDRI. 2008. Sectoral Approaches: A Pathway to National Appropriate Mitigation Actions. Center for Clean Air Policy Interim Report, Executive Overview Duan, Maosheng. 2008. Clean Development Mechanism-Possible Ways for Scaling up, Presentation at IEA/IETA/EPRI workshop on emission trading. ECOFYS. 2012. Design options for sectoral carbon market mechanisms, Final Report, Wuppertal Institute. Ellermann. 2000. Credting NAMAs, Is it possible or not?, ECOFYS ERPI. 2010.2. Sectoral and other international Mechanis Designed to scale up offset supply: An overview of key issues Gavard. C, N Wichester, H. Jacoby and S. Paltsev. 2011. What to expect from Sectoral Trading: A U.S.-China Example, Report No. 193, MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change. Heleme. N, W. Whtesell, M. Houdashelt, J. Osornia, H. Ma, A. Lowe and T. Polzin. 2010. Global Sectoral Study: Final report. Washington DC: Center for Clean Air Policy. http://www.cdmpipline.org IETA. 2010. Thinking through the Design Possibilities for a Sectoral Crediting Mechanism, Three Options to Encourage Discussion, Version 1, Published 5 March 2010. International Emission Trading Association. 175
IGES. 2013.1. New Market mechanism in Charts Marcu, Andre. 2009. Sectoral Approaches in Greenhouse Gas Market: A Viable Proposition? In A. Holm Olsen, J. Fenhann, & M. Hinostroza(Eds.), NAMAs and the Carbon Market. Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions of Developing Countries(pp.97-111). Roskilde: UNEP Risø Center Marcu. A. 2012. Expanding Carbon Markets through New Market-based mechanisms, A synthesis of discussions and submissions to the UNFCCC, CEPS Special Report Okubo. Y, D. Hayashi and A. Michaelowa. 2011. NAMA Crediting: how to assess offsets from and additionality of policy-based mitigation actions in developing countries, University of Zurich Preg.A., C. Hood and A. A. Aasrud. 2011. Keeping Track: Options to develop international Greenhouse Gas Units Accounting After 2012, OECD and IEA Scheider. L. and M. Cames. 2009. A framework for a Sectoral Crediting Mechanism in a Post-2012 Cliamte Change Regime. Report for the Global Wind Energy Council. Berlin, Öko-Institut. Sépibus. J. and A. Tuerk. 2011. New Market-based Mechanism post-2012 Institutional Options and Governance Challenges when Establishing a Sectoral Crediting Mechanism, Climate Economics at the NCCR Climate Hongo. T. 2000. Bilateral Offset Credit Mechanism by Japan, Mitshui Global Strategic Studies Institute, Presentation material in Third High level policy roundtable on International Investment. Thomas Wyns. 2012. Market mechanisms and NAMAs under a new international climate framework, CCAP-Europe, MAIN meeting presentation material. UNEP. 2012. The Emission Gap Report 2012 UNEP Risø. 2010. UNEP Risø CDM/JI Pipeline Analysis and Database, June 1st 2010, UNFCCC AW-LCA, Views on the new market-based mechanism. http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/2012/awglca15/eng/misc06.pdf UNFCCC Submission by Japan on a mechanism operating under the guidance and authority of Conference of the Parties 176
UNFCCC Submission by New zealand. http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/2012/awglca15/eng/misc06.pdf UNFCCC Bali Action Plans http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/2007/cop13/eng/06a01.pdf) Wilke. N. 2012. Modalities and Procedures for New Market-based mechanism. EU Wolfgang Stek. 2010.6. New Mechanism for the Carbon Market? Sectoral Crediting, Sectoral Trading, and Crediting NAMAs, JIKO Policy Paper Wuppertal Institute 177
ABSTRACT As Emissions Trading Scheme, Clean Development Mechanism(CDM), Joint Implementation(JI) under the Kyoto Protocol have not sufficiently improved participating countries' efforts to respond to climate change, parties of UNFCCC have started to discuss a new climate regime which includes new market-based mechanisms with added incentives for new ways to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. The new market-based mechanism categorizes as Sectoral Crediting Mechanisms(SCM) and Sectoral Trading Mechanisms(STM), NAMA Crediting, and Bilateral Offset Credit Mechanism(BOCM). This paper discusses recent discussions on new market mechanisms and the differences among them. The paper proposes the future direction of the constructive discussion of new market mechanisms. Key Words : New market-based mechanism, Post Kyoto mechanism, Sectoral crediting mechanism, Sectoral trading mechanism, Crediting NAMA, Bilateral offset crediting mechanism JEL Codes : Q54 178
에너지경제연구 투고안내, 2.. - 다음 - 200 80 (A4 15 ), 3, 9 (031-420-2100, journal@keei.re.kr), (htt://www.keei.re.kr) (: ).