I S S U E E Q U I T Y R E S E A R C H Quant ( 2122-9212) havan@cjcyber.com 3,.,,,,. < 1-1> JP Morgan EMBI+ Spread, 18 13, ISM 5 16 14 14 15. 5, JPM EMBI+ 12 Spread 16 (,). US 7 3 17 7 4.489% 6 12 5.295%, 13 5.327% 5 8 18.,. 6 4 1 3 5 7 9 19,, JP Morgan EMBI+ Spread 2 18 151.21bp 27 171.42bp 8 2bp. 7bp. 29 JP Morgan EMBI+ Spread.13bp 175.19bp. 5 77 2bp,. 1
,,,. < 1-4> 5 London Metals Exchange 6,. CRB,., 8. 1 3~4. 6.,,,,,. Baltic Dry index... < 1-2> 5, < 1-3>, 4 LME Index US$ Index (,) 8 38 CRB GRains US$ Index (,) 8 4 82 33 82 3 84 28 84 3 2 86 88 23 86 88 2 9 18 9 1 92 13 92 1 4 5 6 7 8 94 8 4 5 6 7 8 94 2
Global 4 < 2-1> 6 EMBI+ Spread Emerging Region net Asia/Pacific -.28% 12 JPM EMBI+ Spread () 12 () Asia/Pacific -.5% 14 Asia/Pacific.1% Asia/Pacific.8% 16 Asia/Pacific -.11% 8 Asia/Pacific -.15% 18 Asia/Pacific.1% 6 Asia/Pacific.% Asia/Pacific -.5% 4 22 Asia/Pacific -.2% 24 2 Asia/Pacific.19% EMEA.5% EMEA.2% EMEA -.13% 26 EMEA -.2% < 2-2> EMBI+ Spread EMEA -.2% 6 JPM EMBI+ Spread () () - -15 1-2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 < 2-3>, 2, TB 3 5.4 5.2 5. 4.8 Y TB 3M 15 5-5 EMEA.18% Latin_Am -.4% Latin_Am -.8% Latin_Am.15% Latin_Am -.4% Latin_Am.1% Developed Region net North_Am -.11% Asia/Pacific -.3% Asia/Pacific -.1% Asia/Pacific -.5% EMEA -.8% EMEA -.6% EMEA.2% EMEA -.8% 2Y < 2-4> US EU & 4.9 4.7 4.5 4.3 4.1 EU Y US spread () Y () 2.1 2. 1.9 1.8 4.6 4.4 4.2 4. 3.9 1.7 3.7 1.6 3.5 3.3 1.5 3.1 1.4 3
< 2-5> < 2-6> 6. 6.2 International Bond () International Bond (, ) 4.5 4.7 3.5 3.7 Y () Y (, ) 6.8 7. 6.4 6.6 6.8 7. 7.2 4.9 5.1 5.3 5.5 3.9 4.1 4.3 4.5 7.2 7.4 7.6 7.8 8. 7.4 5.7 4.7 8.2 7.6 5.9 4.9 8.4 7.8 6.1 < 2-7> 5.1 8.6 < 2-8> 7. 7.5 8. 8.5 9. 9.5 Y () Y (, ) 5 6 7 8 9 11 4.3 4.5 4.7 4.9 5.1 5.3 5.5 5.7 5.9 Y () Y (, ) 6.8 7.3 7.8 8.3 8.8. 12 < 2-9> 6.1 9.3 < 2-> 3.5 3.3 3.1 2.9 2.7 2.5 2.3 2.1 Y Y () 5.7 5.5 5.3 5.1 4.9 4.7 4.5 4.3 4.1 6.4 6.2 6. 5.8 5.6 5.4 5.2 Y Y () 7.1 6.9 6.7 6.5 6.3 6.1 5.9 5.7 1.9 3.9 5. 5.5 4
< 2-11> 6 MSCI Emerging Region chg Asia/Pacific.% 1 MSCI (US$) 2 Asia/Pacific -.6% () 5 Asia/Pacific.15% 15 Asia/Pacific.22% Asia/Pacific.48% 95 Asia/Pacific.1% Asia/Pacific -.4% 85 Asia/Pacific.57% 5 Asia/Pacific -.33% Asia/Pacific 1.92% 75 EMEA.27% EMEA.43% EMEA.3% 65-5 EMEA.89% EMEA.54% EMEA 2.3% < 2-12> MSCI EMEA.82% 1 1 MSCI (US$) () - -2-3 -4 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 < 2-13> / / 126 124 122 12 118 116 114 112 1 / US$ US$ / Euro () 8 1.15 2 1.4 1.35 1.3 1.25 1.2 EMEA.7% EMEA 1.64% Latin_Am -.3% Latin_Am.71% Latin_Am -.15% Latin_Am -1.14% Latin_Am.3% Latin_Am.11% Developed Region chg North_Am -.51% Asia/Pacific.58% Asia/Pacific.25% Asia/Pacific 1.14% EMEA.53% EMEA.47% EMEA.64% < 2-14> / / 89 87 85 83 8 79 77 75 / /US$ () 2 98 96 94 92 73 5
< 2-15> Yuan Baht 7.6 Yuan () 3 7.7 (, ) 7.7 32 7.8 34 7.8 7.9 36 7.9 8. 38 8. 4 8.1 8.1 42 < 2-17> Real Peso < 2-16> 25.5 () (, ) 26. 26.5 27. 27.5 28. 28.5 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.7 29. 1.8 < 2-18> Rand 1.9 2. 2.1 Real () Peso (, ) 5 52 4 41 42 43 Rupee () Rand (, ) 5.5 6. 6.5 53 44 7. 2.2 54 45 7.5 2.3 55 46 47 8. 2.4 56 < 2-19> US / 48 8.5 < 2-2> Peso Zloty.83.78 US$ / (, ) 55 6.2.4 Peso () Zloty (, ) 2.7 2.8.73.68 65 7 75.6.8 11. 11.2 2.9 3. 3.1 3.2.63 8 11.4 3.3.58 85 11.6 3.4 6
< 2-21> 6 CRB MSCI EM Country Region chg CRB index.31% 1 MSCI (US$) 39 CRB Energy energy -.44% CRB () 5 WTI(NYM) energy 2.23% 37 Dubai energy 1.36% 95 35 (NYM) energy -.3% RBOB(NYM) energy.33% (NYM) energy -5.1% 85 33 CRB industrials industrials 5.47% Baltic Dry Idx industrials 6.1% 3 LME Index industrial metal.2% 75 (LME) industrial metal 1.4% 29 (LME) industrial metal 1.68% (LME) industrial metal -2.39% 65 27 (LME) industrial metal -5.63% CRB Precious precious metal -2.41% Gold Spot precious metal -.71% < 2-22> CRB MSCI EM Silver Spot precious metal -4.98% 1 1 6 MSCI (US$) CRB () 38 36 34 32 28 26 24 22 18 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 < 2-23> WTI 8 75 7 65 6 55 WTI (NYM) RBOB (NYM,) 26 24 22 18 16 14 12 CRB Grains crops/grains -3.61% (CBT) crops/grains 6.65% (CBT) crops/grains -.34% (CBT) crops/grains -1.73% (NYB) foodstuffs 4.9% (NYB) foodstuffs 4.93% (NYB) foodstuffs -2.29% (NYB) foodstuffs -.98% (NYB) fibers 4.67% (CME) lumber -1.37% (TCM) ubber -3.82% DRamEx semiconductor -2.64% DDR2 512Mb 533Mhz semiconductor -5.88% DRAM 512Mb MHz semiconductor -.38% Flash 8Gb semiconductor.76% Flash 4Gb semiconductor 14.55% < 2-24> LME 4 3 2 London Metal Exchange Index () 77 72 67 62 57 5 52 7
< 2-25> 3 3 2 26 2 (LME) (LME, ) 8 7 6 6 5 4 2 < 2-27> CRB Grain < 2-26> 5 (LME) (LME, ) 4 4 3 3 2 2 1 1 < 2-28> 34 32 CRB Grains (CBT,) 45 85 (CBT) (CBT, ) 65 6 28 26 24 22 35 25 75 65 6 55 55 45 35 18 15 < 2-29> Euro (BDI) < 2-3> Dram Nand Flash 1.4 1.35 Euro Baltic Dry Idx () 7 6 8 7 DDR2 512Mb 533Mhz Flash 4Gb () 3 25 1.3 1.25 5 4 3 6 5 4 3 2 15 1.2 2 2 5 1.15 1 1 8
< 2-31> 6 MSCI AC World MSCI EM Country Region chg Asia/Pacific -6.62% 48 MSCI AC World (US$) 115 Asia/Pacific -1.3% MSCI 46 (US$,) Asia/Pacific 1.27% 5 44 Asia/Pacific -.61% 42 95 Asia/Pacific -1.55% Asia/Pacific -2.67% Asia/Pacific -.97% 38 85 Asia/Pacific -1.86% Asia/Pacific.42% 36 75 Asia/Pacific.61% 34 EMEA.62% 32 65 EMEA 4.57% EMEA.75% 55 EMEA.56% EMEA.8% EMEA.98% < 2-32> MSCI AC World MSCI EM EMEA 3.4% 42 37 32 27 22 17 12 MSCI AC World (US$) MSCI (US$,) 1 1 6 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 < 2-33> S&P ECRI 16 155 1 145 1 135 1 125 1 S&P ECRI (YoY,) 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% % -1% -2% -3% EMEA -2.6% Latin_Am -1.75% Latin_Am.23% Latin_Am.66% Latin_Am.43% Latin_Am -1.55% Latin_Am 1.2% North_Am.5% North_Am -.57% Asia/Pacific -.28% Asia/Pacific -1.69% Asia/Pacific -1.19% EMEA.24% EMEA.53% EMEA.73% EMEA.62% * < 2-34> US < 2-35> Homebuinding idx & refinancing 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% ICSC/UBS US(YoY) US Initial Claims(, ) 25 27 29 3 33 35 37 1 6 S&P1 Homebuilding MBA Refinancing(SA,) 2 2 1 16 1 1 9
< 2-36> < 2-37> H-Share 46 44 DJ STOXX Nikkei225 () (H-Share) () 4 4 42 1 1 3 3 38 16 2 36 1 2 34 32 6 1 1 < 2-38> KOSPI 1 1 1 16 1 1 1 1 KOSPI (, US$, ) 1 15 < 2-4> 35 33 31 29 27 25 23 21 19 17 < 2-39> SENSEX 15 14 13 12 11 9 SENSEX (, US$, ) 8 3 < 2-41> 44 42 4 38 36 34 32 9 (, US$, ) 9 85 3 2 FTSE/JSE (, US$, ) 4 35 8 7 8 75 7 2 2 2 2 3 25 6 65 2 6 6 1 15
Compliance Notice 11