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....,.. ).. ).. ). ).. ), ). )., 2) Adam B. Ulam, Expansion and Coexistence: Soviet Foreign Policy, 1917-73, 2nd ed. (New York: Praeger Publisher, 1974), p. 745. (the doctrine of limited sovereignty). Henry Kissinger, White House Years (Boston: Little, Brown and Company, 1979), p. 166. 3) Ulam, Expansion and Coexistence, p. 738. 4) (1969 3 17 ), (Kissinger, White House Years, p. 166).. 5) Henry Kissinger, Diplomacy (New York: Simon and Schuster, 1994), p. 722. 6) Kissinger, White House Years, pp. 171, 175-175. 7) Ibid., p. 177. 8) Ibid., p. 186.
..,. ).... (containment policy)....., 9) Kissinger, Diplomacy, p. 728.
..,.,,......, ( ), )....,. 10) Kissinger, Diplomacy, p. 476. 1949.
,,. )... ),,.,..,. IMF GATT. ),. ). 11) Franz H. Michael and George E. Taylor, The Far East in the Modern World (New York: Holt, Rinehart and Winston, Inc., 1964), pp. 584-585, 592. 12) H. Lyman Miller, The Limits of Chinese-Russian Strategic Collaboration, Strategic Insights Vol I, Issue 7 (Sept. 2002), Center for Contemporary Conflict, www.ccc.nps.navy.mil/si/ sept02/eastasia2.asp. 13) Robert Gilpin, The Politics of Transnational Economic Relations, Geroge T. Crane and Abla Amawi, eds., The Theoretical Evolution of Internaltional Political Economy, 2nd ed. (New York: Oxford University Press, 1997), p. 187. 14) Ibid.
%.. %. %. )... %. %. %,. ),,,,. ).,. 15),,, pp. 336-339( : Statistics Bureau Management and Coordination Agency, Japan Statistical Yearbook, 1985). 16),,. 17) Lester Thurow, Fortune Favors the Bold (New York: HarperCollins Publisher, 2003), p. 238.
.,..... ).,,,... )...,,. ) 18),, p. 25. 19),, Vol. 16, 1989.12.,, pp. 69, 74. 20),,, 13, 2001.12., p. 11.
.. ), %. ), %.. )... -.,,. ).,.. ),.. -. 21) (KITA), (http://kita.net/newtri/china/indicator); Eswar Prasad and Shang-Jin Wei, The Chinese Approach to Capital Inflows: Pattern and Possible Explanations, IMF Working Paper WP/05/79 (April 2005), p. 5. 22),, 12/1 (1997 12 ), p. 290, 1). 23) Ibid. 24) (KITA),. 25) Ibid.
. ( ). )..? %. %. ).,, %. ) (Lester Thurow),. )... ( ). 26) Ibid. 27) Ibid. 28) Ibid. 29) 17).
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,,,,.,.. ),,?,.,.,,.,,,,,,,,,,. ) 30) SIPRI, The SIPRI Military Expenditure Database http://first.sipri.org/non_first/milex. php. SIPRI. 31) 1970 1996 : Center for Defense Information, U.S. Military Spending, 1945-1996, http://www.cdi.org/ issues/milspend.html. : Center for Defense Information, Last of the Big Time Spenders, http://www. cdi.org /issues/wme/spenders.html.
,.,.., (peaceful evolution). ), (economic growth), (territorial integrity), (regime security), (favorable strategic balance), (international influence). ),..,,,.. ).,.,. 32) Wu Xinbo, China: Security Practice of a Modernizing and Ascending Power, Muthiah Alagappa, ed., Asian Security Practice: Material and Ideational Influences (Stanford: Stanford University Press, 1998), p. 126.. 33) Ibid., p. 127. 34) Ibid., p. 131.
, (peaceful evolution),, (social instability). )........,.. (Bill Clinton)... )?.. 35) Ibid., pp. 132-135. 36) The US Department of Defense, Quadrennial Defense Report, September 30, 2001, www. defenselink.mil/pubs/qdr2001.pdf., p. 4.
..,.., %, %.. ). ).. NMD(National Missile Defense) TMD(Theater Missile Defense). ) MD(Missile Defense),.,. ), TMD. 37),,, 2004. 10. 22. 38),, 10/2, 2004,, p. 15. 39) United States Department of Defense, Missile Defense: History of the Missile Defense Organization, www.defenselink.mil/specials/missiledefense. 40) Victor Cha, Nuclear Weapons, Missile Defense, and Stability, Muthiah Alagappa, ed., Asian Security Order: Instrument and Normative Feature (Stanford: Stanford University Press, 2003), p. 474. 20-100 (interceptor).
TMD. TMD TMD. ) TMD.,. TMD. NMD, TMD, TMD TMD. ) (Navy Theater).. MD,,. ).., (Kazakhstan), (Tajikistan), (Turkmenistan), (Kyrgyzstan), (Uzbekistan) (Afghanistan).. ) 41) Sugio Tkahashi, The Japanese Perception of the Information Technology-Revolution in Military Affairs: Toward a Defense Information-Based Transformation, Goldman, Emily O., and Thomas G. Mahnken, eds., The Information Revolution in Military Affairs in Asia (New York: Palgrave MacMillan, 2004), pp. 90-91. 42) Cha, Nuclear Weapons, Missile Defense, and Stability, p. 489. 43) Ibid. p. 474. 44) Richard Giragosian, The US Military Engagement in Central Asia and the Southern Caucasus: An Overview, Journal of Slavic Military Studies 17, 2004, pp. 45-47.
..,,. ), (a form of encirclement). ),.. ),,. ) (open flank) ( ). ).,, ),. 45) Ibid., p. 43. 46) Charles William Maynes, America Discovers Central Asia, Foreign Affairs March/April 2003, p. 129. 47) Ibid. 48) Stephen Blank, Central Asia and the Transformation of Asia s Strategic Geography, The Journal of East Asian Affairs 17/2, July 2003, pp. 318-319. 49) Ibid., p. 323. Thomas M. Kane, Chinese Grand Strategy and Maritime Power (London: Frank Cass Publishers, 2001), pp. 36-39. 50) The US Department of Defense, Quadrennial Defense Report, p. 4.
(challenging area),. )..., (bandwagon). )..,..,. ). MD.. 51) Ibid. 52) Christopher P. Twomey, Japan, A Circumscribed Balancer: Building on Defensive Realism to Make Predictions about East Asian Security, Security Studies 9/4, Summer 2004, p. 167. 53) Henry Kissinger, Does America Need a Foreign Policy? Toward a Diplomacy for the 21st Century (New York: A Touchstone Book, 2001), p. 125.
.,. %...,,....,...,. ),, ),. ). %. 54) (KITA),. 55), 1 105, 2007.04.17. 56),,, 2007.11.21.
.,,,. ) (Japan bashing), ),. %. ). - (Schumer-Graham),. %.. )... ) %.. % 57) (KITA), (http://stat.kita.net/top/state). 58) Jagdish N. Bhagwati, VERs, QUID PRO QUO DFI and VIEs: Political-Economy-Theoretic Analyses, International Economic Journal 1(1987). 59) (KITA),. 60) (Joseph Stiglitz) ( ):, -, Vol. 8, No. 1, 2006, p. 157. 61) Chad P. Bown, Meredith A. Crowley, Rachel McCulloch, and Daisuke J. Nakajima, The U.S. trade deficit: Made in China? Economic Perspectives 4Q/2005, pp. 3-4.
. ) (FRB). ).,,..,.,,,,,. ), %. ).,. ). ). ).... 62) Ibid., p. 6. 63) Ibid., p. 7. 64) (KITA),. 65),,, 2006/10/21. 66), 1,, 2006/10/19. 67),,, 2007/11/21. 68) Andrew Sheng, Why Asia needs to integrate its financial markets, Financial Times, Dec. 2, 2005.
. ). %., (pegged). ( ). ). (Bernanke).,. (sustainable). )...,.. ) 69) The Economist, The dragon and the eagle, Sep 30th 2004, The Economist print edition, p. 2 (www.economist.com/surveys). 70) The Economist, A fair exchange? Sep 30th 2004, The Economist print edition, p. 1 (www. economist.com/surveys). 71) The Economist, A topsy-turvy world, Sep 14th 2006, The Economist print edition, p. 2 (www.economist.com/surveys). 72) Ibid.
.,.,..,...,. )...,. ) GDP / /. ). 73) (KITA), (http://stat.kita.net/top/state). 74)., (macroeconomic policies), Bown, The U.S. trade deficit: Made in China? p. 6. 75), :,, No. 76, 2006/02/09.
.,? ) :. (military security),... )... ) (leverage)? %..,.. ). ). 76) The Economist, Playing leapfrog, Sep 14th 2006, The Economist print edition, p. 1 (www. economist.com/surveys). 77) Ibid. 78) The US Department of Defense, Quadrennial Defense Report, p. 6. 79) The Economist, The great thrift shift, Sep 22nd 2005, The Economist print edition, p. 5 (www.economist.com/surveys). 80) Ronald I. Mckinnon, The International Dollar Standard and the Sustainability of the U.S. Current Account Deficit, Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Vol. 2001, No. 1. (2001), p. 228.
. %.. ) ( ),. )....,.. )..,.. 81) The Economist, Forever free, Sep 22nd 2005, The Economist print edition, p. 2 (www.economist. com/surveys). 82) Mckinnon, The International Dollar Standard and the Sustainability of the U.S. Current Account Deficit, p. 228. 83) The Economist, The frugal giant, Sep 22nd 2005, The Economist print edition, p. 5 (www. economist.com/surveys).
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. ( ), (geopolitical risk).. ).,,..,,.....,..,.,.,. 84) The Economist, Playing leapfrog, p. 2.
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