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1 세계조선및선박해체산업동향 (World s Shipbuilding-Shipbreaking Industry Review) - 전국금속노동조합 - (Korea Metal Workers Union) IndustriAll Global Union Shipbuilding-Shipbreaking p g Sector Rio de Janeiro, Brazil Action Group Meeting

2 내용 세계조선산업개요 (Brief Outline of World Shipbuilding Industry) 조선및선박해체산업동향 (Industry Review) 동아시아사례 (Case of Eastern Asia) 노동이슈와대응과제 (Labor Issues and Problems)

3 세계조선산업개요 조선산업의특징 단일한세계시장 해운업국제교역량국제원자재가격및수해운업, 국제교역량, 국제원자재가격및수요등에대해민감하게반응

4 세계조선산업개요 조선산업의역사 제 2 차세계대전전후영국에서본격적으로시작 197 년대까지유럽, 년대일본이주도 2 년대이후한국과중국이주도

5 세계조선산업개요 최근의조선시장상황 23 년부터 28 년상반기까지는전세계조선산업의최고호황기 28 년을기점으로초과공급의지속, 세계금융위기이후조선산업역시급격한침체

1, 211년중반이후세계경 3, 제가더블딥이우려되는 8, 6, 2, 상황으로돌변하면서신조선발주역시장기침체국면으로돌입

Korea China Europe total Sub total No(World Total) Source: IHS

Ship Size Coverage: 1 Gross Tonnage and over.

6 산업동향 : 수주량 (new order) (1,GT) (No.) 18, 16, 14, 12, 6, 5, 4, 28년세계금융위기이후수주량급감 21 년세계경제회복으로주문량이소폭증가 1, 211년중반이후세계경 3, 제가더블딥이우려되는 8, 6, 2, 상황으로돌변하면서신조선발주역시장기침체국면으로돌입 4, 2, 1, Japan S.Korea China Europe total Sub total No(World Total) Source: IHS Fairplay, World Fleet Statistics. Ship Size Coverage: 1 Gross Tonnage and over. Europe total = Former AWES (present CESA) countries. Excludes Poland (member from '95), Rumania ('), Croatia ('2), Lithuania & Bulgaria ('9) for comparisons with former periods.

산업동향 : 건조량 (completion) (1,GT) 12, 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, (No.

년대조선산업호황은설비확충및생산성향상으로이어져세계선박건조량은꾸준히증가 그러나수주잔량감소로건조량은 21-211 년을점차감소할것으로전망 25 26 27 28 29 21

Korea China Europe total Sub total No(World Total) Source: IHS Fairplay, World Fleet

7 산업동향 : 건조량 (completion) (1,GT) 12, 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, (No.) 4, 3,5 3, 2,5 2, 1,5 1, 5 198년대평균 15백만GT 였던세계선박건조량은 2년대에들어 43백만 GT로약세배가량증가 2 년대조선산업호황은설비확충및생산성향상으로이어져세계선박건조량은꾸준히증가 그러나수주잔량감소로건조량은 년을점차감소할것으로전망 Japan S.Korea China Europe total Sub total No(World Total) Source: IHS Fairplay, World Fleet Statistics. Ship Size Coverage: 1 Gross Tonnage and over. Europe total = Former AWES (present CESA) countries. Excludes Poland (member from '95), Rumania ('), Croatia ('2), Lithuania & Bulgaria ('9) for comparisons with former periods.

Source: IHS Fairplay, World Fleet Statistics. Ship Size Coverage: 1 Gross Tonnage and over.

8 산업동향 : 선종별건조량 (completion by shiptype) (1,GT) 12, 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, 벌크선의경우향후 2-3년간인도될신규건조물량을감안하면전세계벌크선의공급과잉이심화될것으로예상 탱커의경우현재신규주문물량을다수보유한초대형유조선 (VLCCs) 이상당히최근에인도됐다는점에서공급과잉우려 일반상선역시현재운행규모대비 45% 가수년내에신규로인도될전망 Tanker Bulker Container Others Source: IHS Fairplay, World Fleet Statistics. Ship Size Coverage: 1 Gross Tonnage and over. Europe total = Former AWES (present CESA) countries. Excludes Poland (member from '95), Rumania ('), Croatia ('2), Lithuania & Bulgaria ('9) for comparisons with former periods.

산업동향 : 수주잔량 (orderbook) (1,GT) 4, 35, (No.

1% 가감 2, 6, 소 15, 1, 5, 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 Japan S.

Ship Size Coverage: 1 Gross Tonnage and over. Europe total = Former AWES (present CESA) countries.

9 산업동향 : 수주잔량 (orderbook) (1,GT) 4, 35, (No.) 12, 1, 건조및인도량증가, 발주감소로인해수주잔량은 28년이후꾸준히감소 3, 세계선박수주잔량은 8, 25, 211 년현재 217 백만 GT 로 3년사이에 41.1% 가감 2, 6, 소 15, 1, 5, Japan S.Korea China Europe total Sub total No(World Total) Source: IHS Fairplay, World Fleet Statistics. Ship Size Coverage: 1 Gross Tonnage and over. Europe total = Former AWES (present CESA) countries. Excludes Poland (member from '95), Rumania ('), Croatia ('2), Lithuania & Bulgaria ('9) for comparisons with former periods. 4, 2, 29-21년인도지연률또한크게개선된상황에서최근에는지난 2 3년전에수주한벌크선, 컨테이너들이인도를앞두고있는상황 추가발주물량을시급히확보하지못할경우세계조선산업은 2 3 년후를장담하기어려움.

산업동향 : 선종별선복량 (fleet by shiptype) (1,GT) 1,2, 1,, 8, 6, 4, (No.) 6 5 4 3 2 24년이후선복량이큰폭으로증가.

선박크기의대형화 2, 1 Oil Tanker Bulk Carrier Other Ship Type Oil Tanker no. Bulk Carrier no. Other Ship Type no.

10 산업동향 : 선종별선복량 (fleet by shiptype) (1,GT) 1,2, 1,, 8, 6, 4, (No.) 년이후선복량이큰폭으로증가. 벌크선이나탱커보다는다른선종들이선복량증가주도 선종구조의변화 선박량 ( 선박대수 ) 은감소하거나혹은선복량에비해증가율이더낮음. 선박크기의대형화 2, 1 Oil Tanker Bulk Carrier Other Ship Type Oil Tanker no. Bulk Carrier no. Other Ship Type no. Source : IHS (Former Lloyd's Register) "Stastical tables" until "World Fleet Statistics" from 1992 Ship Size Coverage : 1 Gross Tonnage and over. Combined carriers are included in "Bulk Carrier" category. Mid year basis until End year basis from 1992.

산업동향 : 선박해체 (Ship Breaking) (1,GT) 3, 25, 2, 15, 1, 5, 197919811983198519871989199119931995199719992123252729 No.

Ship Size Coverage : 1 Gross Tonnage and over. (No.

11 산업동향 : 선박해체 (Ship Breaking) (1,GT) 3, 25, 2, 15, 1, 5, No. 1,GT Source : IHS (Former Lloyd's Register) "Casualty Return" until "World Casualty Statistics" from 199. Ship Size Coverage : 1 Gross Tonnage and over. (No.) 선박해체량은 1985년과 년동안절정에달했다가 23년후반이후부터급속히감소. 28 년이후부터다시급증 년사상최고치를기록했던선박해체량은 212 년최고치를경신할것으로전망 211년벙커C유가격은 5 년만에16.7% 가상승했지만운임은 27년이후꾸준히하락세 고유가 저운임이지속되면서연비효율이나쁜소형노후선박을중심으로선박해체급증할것으로전망

산업동향 : 국가별선박해체 (shipbreaking by country) (1,GT) 3, 25, 2, 15, 1, 5, 1979 198 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986

Pakistan India Bangladesh China Others 선박해체는대표적인노동집약적산업이며세계에서가장위험한직업중의하나 오늘날선박해체산업은중국, 인도, 파키스탄,

Source : IHS(Former Lloyd's Register) "Casualty Return" until 1993. "World Casualty Statistics" from 1994.

There have some divergences between the accumulated world totals by country of breaking and this table's

12 산업동향 : 국가별선박해체 (shipbreaking by country) (1,GT) 3, 25, 2, 15, 1, 5, Taiwan Pakistan India Bangladesh China Others 선박해체는대표적인노동집약적산업이며세계에서가장위험한직업중의하나 오늘날선박해체산업은중국, 인도, 파키스탄, 방글라데시를중심으로발달돼있으며, 이들국가는오늘날세계선박해체의 9% 이상을담당 선박해체에따른환경및안전문제의심각성으로인해국제해사기구 (IMO) 는 29년외교회의에서이와관련한국제협약을채택 Source : IHS(Former Lloyd's Register) "Casualty Return" until "World Casualty Statistics" from Only the figures of "World Total" in this table in were revised by latest Casualty Statistics. There have some divergences between the accumulated world totals by country of breaking and this table's figures of "World Total" which are equivalent to Table 8 "DISPOSALS" due to above reason. Ship Size Coverage : 1 Gross Tonnage and over.

산업동향 : 선박해체전망 (shipbreaking forecast) 1 (million

5 벌크선은 21 년이후에대량의해체수요발생 선박해체시설을갖춘국가 4 가부족하기때문에선박

1 존재 29-22 22-225 225-23 TK(1kDWT~) BC(1kDWT~)

13 산업동향 : 선박해체전망 (shipbreaking forecast) 1 (million GT) 단일선체탱커의경우 9 21 년에약 1 만 DWT 8 가넘는선체가해체될예정 벌크선은 21 년이후에대량의해체수요발생 선박해체시설을갖춘국가 4 가부족하기때문에선박 3 해체시장의수요폭증, 세계해운시장에서선박량과 2 잉으로인한운임폭락등의문제가발생할가능성 1 존재 TK(1kDWT~) BC(1kDWT~) CONT(5kDWT~) Source : Korea Shipbuilders Association

동아시아의조선산업 국가별수주잔량 조선소별수주잔량 Japan 16.6 m.cgt (16.5%) 3.9 m.cgt (3.7%) 37.1 m.cgt (36.9%) S. Korea Source: Clarkson, Shipyard Orderbook Monitor(212. 7.) China m.

8 Korea Hyundai Samho 2.8 2.8 Korea Oshima SB 2.1 2.1 Japan Dalian SB 1.6 1.6 China STX Dalian 1.4 1.4 China Shanghai Waigaoqiao 1.4 1.4 China Jiangsu New YZJ 1.3 1.

14 동아시아의조선산업 국가별수주잔량 조선소별수주잔량 Japan 16.6 m.cgt (16.5%) 3.9 m.cgt (3.7%) 37.1 m.cgt (36.9%) S. Korea Source: Clarkson, Shipyard Orderbook Monitor( ) China m. CGT % Location Samsung HI Korea Daewoo Korea Hyundai HI Korea STX SB Korea Jiangsu Rongsheng China Hyundai Mipo Korea Hyundai Samho Korea Oshima SB Japan Dalian SB China STX Dalian China Shanghai Waigaoqiao China Jiangsu New YZJ China Hudong Zhonghua China Tsuneishi Zosen China Sungdong SB Korea Other Total Source: Clarkson, Shipyard Orderbook Monitor( )

15 동아시아의조선산업 : 한국 (S. Korea) Orderbook of S.Korea Ship Type CGT % Container Ship 13,89, Crude Oil Tanker 4,993, Bulk Carrier 4,888, LNG Tanker 4,29, Chemical/Oil Products Tanker Oil Products Tanker 1,488, , Ore Carrier 788,5 2.2 Others 4,587, All Ship Types Total 35,529,266 1 Source: IHS "World Shipbuilding ildi Statistics", ti ti as of end 211 Vessel's Coverage 1 GT and over 과거에는주로탱크선, 벌크선, 중형컨테이너선에주력 최근 FPSOㆍ드릴십등해양플랜트와 LNG 선, 대형컨테이너선등고부가가치선박들을집중적으로수주 211년말한국의선종별수주잔량을보면, 벌크선의비율은 13.8% 에불과하고컨테이너는 39.1%, LNG 탱커는 11.3% 로다른국가에비해상대적으로높은비율을차지 현재국내조선산업위기는정부가자초한것. 28년부터건조능력이선박발주를초과했음에도불구하고중소조선소에 묻지마투자 만을감행했기때문 올해 5월정부는 해양플랜트산업발전방안 을발표했으나, 여기에는중소조선소를중심으로전개되고있는위기의성격이전혀반영되지않았음.

16 동아시아의조선산업 : 중국 (China) Orderbook of China Ship Type CGT % Bulk Carrier 21,217, Container Ship 6,134, Crude Oil Tanker 3,143, General Cargo Ship 3,35, Ore Carrier 1,345, Chemical/Oil Products Tanker Oil Products Tanker 1,32, , Others 4,279, All Ship Types Total 4,875,528 1 Source: IHS "World Shipbuilding ildi Statistics", ti ti as of end 211 Vessel's Coverage 1 GT and over 벌크선등상대적으로부가가치가낮고기술력이높지않은선박이주력 지난해중국의수주량은전년대비 51.9% 가감소한 3천622만DWT로중국조선소중 3분의 1이신규수주를기록하지못했음. 선가하락으로인해수익이절반가까이감소해중국조선업계의위기가중 211년 12차 5개년경제계획 에서중국정부는조선업의발전방향제시. 세계조선신표준에의부합, 현대식선박모델구축, 첨단기술과고부가가치선박개발 그러나이번경제계획은단기적인금융지원, 수주확보, 과잉공급해소에대해서는뚜렷한해법이없음. 당분간중국의조선업계는정부의방치속에서산업구조조정의위기에놓여있을것으로보임.

17 동아시아의조선산업 : 일본 (Japan) Orderbook of Japan Ship Type CGT % Bulk Carrier 9,587, Ore Carrier 1,87, General Cargo Ship 1,54, Vehicles Carrier 794, Crude Oil Tanker 729, LNG Tanker 395, Container Ship 393,5 2.4 Others 2,89, All Ship Types Total 16,131,745 1 Source: IHS "World Shipbuilding ildi Statistics", ti ti as of end 211 Vessel's Coverage 1 GT and over 일본의주력선종은벌크선으로, 211 년말기준전체수주잔량의 59.4% 를벌크선이차지. LNG선은 2.5% 에불과 벌크선은중국과,LNG선, 해양플랜트등고부가가치선종은한국과직접적으로경쟁하고있다는점에서경쟁의국제적조건이보다열악 일본조선산업의쇠퇴는과거 IT 산업의쇠퇴와유사한성격을가짐. 최근일본의조선소들은생산시설감축및탈일본움직임을보이고있음. 미쓰비시중공업및가와사키중공업은인도, 브라질등신흥시장으로의이동을추진 일본정부는최근일본산기자재를사용하는조건으로선박설계및건조기술을동남아국가에이전하는사업을추진

18 노동이슈와대응과제 중소조선소의붕괴와고용불안의도미노, 그리고노동조건의후퇴 현재의조선산업위기는산업구조적차원의위기 고용불안도미노는중소조선소를시작으로대형조선소로퍼져나갈것. 이미세계 Big 3 업체중하나인현대중공업은지난 1 월창사 4년만에처음으로희망퇴직을실시 사용자들은조선산업위기를명목으로단체교섭을주도해나갈사용자들은조선산업위기를명목으로단체교섭을주도해나갈것. 노동자들의노동조건은후퇴할가능성이높음.

19 노동이슈와대응과제 해양플랜트와사업다각화, 조선산업위기극복의대안이될수있는가? 고기술, 고부가가치산업으로의전환은대규모설비투자를필요로하기때문에대형조선소가독식할가능성이높음. 현재건조중인해양플랜트선박의경우에도수익성과효율성이낮음. 해양플랜트와사업다각화는조선산업노동자전체에게긍정적해양플랜트와사업다각화는조선산업노동자전체에게긍정적인성과를불러오기어려움. 오히려새로운고용불안과노동강도강화를야기할위험이높음.

20 노동이슈와대응과제 조선 - 해운 - 선박해체의라이프사이클과조선산업의녹색성장 최근조선산업의구조적전환을이끌고있는키워드중하나가바로환경임. 노동조합이세계조선시장의침체, 과잉생산능력과저비용경쟁압력, 고용불안과비정규직양산을극복하고미래를주도하기위해서는녹색성장과친환경이란의제를선점해야만함. 녹색성장이란노동자에게는환경친화적이고안전한작업장, 지속가능한고용, 즉좋은일자리 (decent work) 를, 조선산업차원에서는연비효율향상과대체에너지관련선종으로의전환을넘어서는조선산업생태계에대한 Life-Cycle Thinking을확산하는것.

21 Thank You - Korea Metal Workers Union - IndustriAll Global Union Shipbuilding-Shipbreaking p g Sector Rio de Janeiro, Brazil Action Group Meeting

PowerPoint 프레젠테이션

PowerPoint 프레젠테이션 Shipbuilding Industry in East Asia Korean Metal Workers Union (KMWU-KCTU) IndustriAll Global Union Shipbuilding-Shipbreaking Sector Action Group Meeting Copenhagen, Denmark 2013. 11. 12-14. Presentation