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1 ( )

2 ,, -,, -,, ,, - i -

3 %, 24.9% %, 16.9% % 26.3%, 18.1% % % ( : %, ) ,496 1,259 3,666 2,516 1, ,936, NICs( :,,, ) NICs, ,193, , NICs , , ii -

4 1980,, , ( :, ) NICS , , , , ,, -,, NICs - iii -

5 NICs NICs,, NICs -, 4%(1980) 38.4%(1990) 58.3%(1999) (1990 ) 2., - NICs - NICs - iv -

6 ( : ) NICs , - NAFTA 47.6% 63%, NAFTA 54% ,292 ( ) 838, 813, 161, 146, 124, ,, -, 1996 ( ) 28.8%, 49.9%, 42.7%, 42.6% - 90 IT - v -

7 3., % % % % - 96,, 5% ( ) ( : %) - vi -

8 % 10.9% ( 0.89%) ,492 ( 3.92%) , ,180, ( 3,100 ), ( 3,240 ), ( 4,000 ) - 3.1%(1990) 8.1%( ) NICs 3 5 -, (HS 85) 18.4%,,, (HS 84) 12.1% - vii -

9 (HS 62) 7.3%, (HS 61) 5% IT (885 ), (455 ) 3 10 PC (, Legend Group) 30% ( ) -,,,, - M&A, 1, , 2, ,, M&A - viii -

10 (,,, ) % %, 4 (,,, ) 14.1% 8.1% 4.0% 16.2% - WTO 3.7%(1995) 6.34%(2005) 19.52%(1995) 43.95%(2005), 4.96% 9.48% , WTO B 136% - 56%, - ix -

11 %, 81% % 7 8%, - ( ) ,, - x -

12 -, % ( :,%) %, 8.4% 2000 IT 60% (2001.8) ( : ) - xi -

13 , % 32.4% -,, ( ), - WTO ,, 2, 2 11% 24% - - xii -

14 - NICs , (FTA) -, - xiii -

15 (value chain), -,, IT xiv -

16 < > (1) 8 (2) 9 (3) 9 (4) (1) 13 (2) 14 (3) (1) 19 (2) (1) 27 (2) 31

17 (1) 35 (2) 36 (3) (1) 46 (2) (1) 52 (2) 55 (3)

18 < > < 2-1> 3 < 2-2> 5 < 2-3> 7 < 2-4> 11 < 3-1> 16 < 3-2> < 3-3> ( ) 20 < 3-4> 21 < 3-5> (1999) 21 < 3-6> (2000) 22 < 3-7> < 3-8> 26 < 3-9> (1996) 28 < 3-10> 28 < 3-11> 30 < 3-12> ( ) 31 < 3-13> ( ) 32 < 3-14> (2000) 33 < 4-1> 36 < 4-2> ( ) 37 < 4-3> < 4-4> < 4-5> < 4-6> 1 (99 ) 42 < 4-7> 43 < 4-8> 45 < 4-9> 48

19 < 4-10> FDI 49 < 4-11> 50 < 4-12> 1 52 < 4-13> 53 < 4-14> 54 < 4-15> 56 < 4-16> 56 < 4-17> < 4-18> 58 < 4-19> 60 < 4-20> 64

20 < > < 2-1> 4 < 2-2> 10 < 3-1> ( ) 15 < 3-2> IT 27 < 4-1> 39 < 4-2> 10 ( ) 43 < 4-3> 44 < 4-4> 47 < 4-5> 50 < 4-6> 58 < 5-1> 70

21 , 70-80, ,,, (NICs) WTO..

22 2,,,., 21...,... 1),.., ) 30, (EAEC)..

23 ) 1 8, , %. 6 6, % 1 6, % 16.9% % 24.9% : WTO < 2-1> ( :, %) ,350 34,420 50,790 63,580 3,236 7,923 14,445 18, ,747 35,421 52,179 66,686 3,514 7,622 14,012 16, , ) 2). 3)..

24 % ,700, 8,500 18%, 14%. 30. < 2-1> : 2001 WTO % 26.3%, 18.1%. 46.6% % %.,..

25 5 < 2-2> ( : %, ) ,496 1,259 3,666 2,516 1, ,936 : WTO, International trade statistics 2000 NICs,,, NICs. NICs... NICs,,..., NICs....

26 6., , NICs NICs,. NICs NICs. NICs, , , , , , , 10. 4) NICs 4) ,

27 7 263, NICs..... < 2-3 > ( :, ) NICS , , , , : 1980,,,. 1980,, ,.. 5) , ),

28 8.,.. 3. (1) (PTA) ,,,..,. (APEC) (AFTA)

29 GDP 1/3,,,, IMF. 3,. (2) (ASEAN Economic Monitoring Mechanism: AEMM). (AMF) IMF (CMI). CMI. CMI , 30, 20, 10. (3).,

30 10, 80,.. (ADB).,,.,. < 2-2> :,, 1999, p....,,,

31 11. (4) APEC % (AFTA). 6). APEC 93, , 2020,,,. IMF, WTO. < 2-4> FTA (,, ) (APT) 1998 ASEAN AFTA , ) ASEAN AFTA 6 5% AFTA (ASEAN Investment Area).

32 WTO. +3.

33 (1) 1950.,, ( ). 7) ) ) 1930 Akamtsu( ) Kojima( )... 8) Edith Terry, The east Asian Miracle- one paradigm Too Many? International Relation Research Archive. ebt/paradigm1.html

34 14 NICs,.,,. -, -.. (2) 1) ,,... 87, ,. < 3-1> ) 9),.

35 15. NICs,.,. NICs. NICs,,. < 3-1> ( ) : ).,, % % %, % % 99 90%.,.

36 < 3-1 > ( :%) n.a n.a : ADB, Asian Development Outlook 2001, p. 166 (ODA) ODA 40%.. ODA % % %. 60,,..,,,,,.

37 17,,. (3)....,,,,....., IT , GM..,..

38 18 < 3-2 > %, , 3 ( 93%, 96 7 ) 98/99,, 51% 2000 GM GM 2001,, 34%, 10% ,, 2000 :,

39 19 2. (1) 1) ) ,051 31%. NICs 3 2,543, 52.3%. 47.6% 44.1% 1, % %.. NICs , NICs 3 1, % , % 1, %, % % % % %. NICs. 10). IMF IMF..

40 < 3-3> ( ) ( :,%) NICs (20.7) (43.3) (42.0) (32.8) (30.5) ,084 (22.9) (46.4) (45.7) (49.6) (36.5) 540 1, ,303 (23.0) (48.6) (46.1) (47.4) (38.1) 1,012 2,438 1, ,109 (30.1) (53.9) (49.3) (43.4) (44.8) 1,051 2,543 1, ,283 (31.0) (52.3) (47.6) (44.1) (40.0) 247 (16.6) 511 (17.1) 761 (51.2) 1,485 (49.8) 286 (19.3) 611 (20.5) 191 (12.9) 373 (12.5) 1,485 (100.0) 2,980 (100.0) : NICs 3,,. 4,,, : IMF, DOT 2000 NICs ) NICs. 85,.. NICs.. 11) IMF IMF , ,, 2001, May

41 21... : IMF < 3-4 > ( : ) NICs ), , % 6,496. EU 2 1, % NAFTA 54.1%. < 3-5 > (1999) ( :, %) EU NAFTA 13, , , , , , , , , : WTO.

42 , , 813. < 3-6 > (2000) ( : ) 65, ,577-81,323 27,901 40,300-12,399 24,380 40,514-16,134 16, ,063-83,810 17,816 19,186-1,370 14,625 11,452 3,173 10,996 25,568-14,572 8,790 13,937-5,147 6,643 16,389-9,746 2,547 10,385-7, , , ,166 : KOTIS.. EU UR WTO APEC. EU , EU,. 12) (EU 1 ) , EU 19, 10. EU 8 12), 2001 WTO,

43 23 WTO WTO.. 5., EU , EU,, 67% %.. < 3-7> 2001 EU (12) : WTO Semi-annual report ( ) WTO. (2) 1). NICs NICs

44 , ,,,. 1990, 80,. 80,, , ) NPC 95 75, TPI ) (Perwaja Steel) 30,

45 ) GM ),. < 3-8> 1996 ( ) 28.8%. 49.9%, 42.7%, 42.6%. 42% 38% ,,,. 14),.

46 26. : WTO, Annual Report ) IT < 3-8> ( :%) (1996) IT. IT,.. 90,,,,. < 3-2) IT.,, IT IT 60%. IT IT. 97

47 27 IT IT. < 3-2> IT : World Bank 3. (1) 1) (< 3-9> ) % 4 236%, 188%. 88, % %, 282% 355% % % %.

48 28 < 3-9> (1996) (mean) (median) (mean) (median) : 5,550. : Stijn Claessens, Simeon Djankov and Larry Lang, p. 9.,, ( / ) (< 3-10> ) d.. 1. < 3-10> : Michael Pomerleano, The East Asia Crisis and Corporate Finances: the Untold Micro Stories, p. 14..

49 29,,,. 2) ,,. 90,.., ,823 4, %.,, 150., , ,224 1,466 1,001 1, % 10.1%. 6.6% %, 3.5%

50 30 7.5% %, 3% ) < 3-11 > ( :,%) ,073 1,236 1,214 1,314 1, , ,823 (36.8) 2,328 (40.1) 2,944 (39.6) 3,203 (36.8) 3,660 (35.7) 4,224 (34.7) 4,953 5,805 7,435 8,702 10,248 12,169 : 16) % % % 5%. 90 (NAFTA). NAFTA ). 10%, 3% ,612, 1, ).

51 31 (2) 1). 90. < 3-12>. 70 (71-80) 12.4% 80 (81-90) 1.3% % % ,,,.,, ,, LG DRAM DRAM. 96 PC. 16MBDRAM % 20%.. 17) < 3-12> ( ) ( : %) 17) IT DRAM 2000.

52 : : World Bank, East Asia: Recovery and Beyond, 2000, p , %. 96,, 5% : ADB < 3-13> ( ) ( : %)

53 33 2) 90..,,, NICs, %. 90. < 3-14> (2000) ( :%) FDI GDP /GDP : IMF, World Economic Outlook , p.21.,.

54 34.,,. 97. (25%), (37%), (27%). FDI. 3) ,.,,,.

55 (1) % % 18) 2, %. 35.8% /4 8.1%. IT, , WTO. WTO ) 8% ,, 8%.

56 36.. GDP 10 % GDP : (2001) < 4-1> (2) ,399 1,828 1, ,450 1,837 1, ,547 1,949 1, , ,670 2,492 2, ) %. 2, % 1,304 14% , % 31.9%, 52% % 80 13%, % 10.9% ,180 ( 3,100 ), ( 3,240 ), ( 4,000 ) 4

57 37. 19) < 4-2> ( ) ( : ) ,488 1,836 2,492 2,226 3,936 5,847 6,825 7,824 1,929 4,211 5,230 5,428 5,516 1,304 2,876 4,431 3,879 4,793 1,160 2,166 2,868 3,054 2,981 1,101 1,852 2,420 2,729 2, ,276 1,922 2,143 2, ,703 2,340 2,455 2, ,318 1,969 2,008 2, ,177 1,710 1,788 1, ,739 1,749 2, ,251 1,323 1,726 20,350 34,420 50,790 54,460 63,580 : WTO 2) , % 521, 2, % ,,,,. 19),,

58 38 < 4-3> 10 (, %) ,805 1,952 (8.1) 2,492 (27.7) 1,250 (9.1) (11.9) 521 (24.1) 251 (6.0) (9.8) 416 (28.4) 215 (14.5) (-0.6) 445 (20.6) 214 (3.6) (25.4) 113 (44.4) 58 (10.0) (6.7) 93 (19.2) 45 (1.6) (6.1) 67 (23.4) 36 (10.0) (6.5) 63 (29.3) 31 (8.7) (17.0) 58 (27.8) 28 (3.5) (4.5) 50 (27.5) 24 (-1.9) (14.9) 38 (29.7) 21 (11.3) : ( ) : ( ) ) 1, % %., NICs 3 (,, 20) , ,.

59 39 ) 10.1%, 5 5.4% NICs % 8.5% % 11.1% NICs 3 6.8%, 5 6.4% < 4-1> : % % 11.3%. 4.5% 2.0%.,,.

60 40 < 4-4> 10 (, %) ,404 1,658 2,251 1,165 (18.1) (35.8) (14.0) (19.3) (22.9) (10.1) (17.0) (30.5) (8.6) (14.7) (14.8) (18.0) (14.7) (34.7) (6.9) (19.1) (24.9) (29.8) (3.4) (36.8) (5.9) (16.4) (36.6) (32.6) (34.8) (51.9) (32.6) (-3.9) (24.6) (8.0) (34.0) (39.2) (-1.8) : ( ) : 2) HS 2, (HS 85) % %. 2,, (HS 84) % , 10.8% %.

61 41 (HS 62) , 8.4% % (HS 61) 6.0% 5%.,.. < 4-5> 10 (, %) , (14.7) (16.9) (18.5) (18.4) 2,, (9.2) (9.8) (10.8) (12.1) (8.4) (8.0) (7.6) (7.3) ( ) (6.0) (6.0) (5.4) (5.0) 5,, (4.5) (4.4) (4.0) (4.0) 6,, (4.2) (3.9) (3.7) (3.3) (2.8) (2.4) (3.1) (3.3) 8,, (2.3) (2.8) (2.8) (2.8) (2.9) (2.7) (2.6) (2.6) (2.8) (2.6) (2.6) (2.6) 1,805 1,952 2,492 1,714 (100.0) (100.0) (100.0) (100.0) : ( ) : KOTIS( ) TV( 36%),

62 42 (50%), (24%) TV. < 4-6> 1 (99 ) ( :, %) TV 11,787 5,717 2,670 5, ,000 4,262 1,342 1,338 1, :, Nikkei Business (3) 1) 2000 IT 38.4% 255 (231 ) (885 ), (455 ) 3.,,. IT,.. (PC) PC (, Legend Group) 30%. IBM, Dell, HP, Acer..

63 43 < 4-2> 10 ( ) : The Economist, , p. 56 IT,.,, 3 5 6%.. < 4-7>, ( ),, IC 1 ( )NEC : 8,000 /, NEC DRAM : 8,000 /, 2, : 1 / IC 3 ( ) DRAM, ASIC DRAM ( ) 1M 200 / /DRAM DRAM : ( ),

64 ,,. NEC , 2. 2)...,,,,.. < 4-3> : ABN-Amro, Asian Achor, Q2001, p.45

65 45 M&A,. 1, ( ) PetroChina Sinopec. 34,, 3. M&A ,. ( ) ( ) ( ), 20%. 3 ( ) ( ), ( ) ( ), ( ) ( ) 3. < 4-8>, - - (41%), (30%), (10%) - 8 -,, 3-10,, 3 : % (120 ) ,000 - (3 ) - 118~180 -

66 46 2. (1) 1) ,, ) % % % 7% % % 2% 5%. 1% 2% 5%. 22). 20 < 4-3> ,,, % %,,, % 18%(85) %.. 4.0% 16.2%. 21) World Bank, East Asia: The Road to Recovery, p ) Ibid., p. 24 figure 2.7

67 ,614 80% % 99 60% 91 50% 99 80% % 5.2% < 4-4> : 4,,, 4,,, : GATT WTO, International Trade Ststistics 2) WTO WTO. WTO % 4.58%. 23) WTO % 4.58% WTO 6.34% 23) Elena Ianchovichina, Will Martin and Emiko Fukase, Assessing the Implications of Merchandise Trade Liberalization in China's Accession to WTO, World Bnk June 23, 2000

68 % WTO %, 4.75%. WTO % WTO % % %.. WTO 7.42% %. < 4-9> ( : %) : Elena Ianchovichina(2000) (2) 1). (UNCTAD) , 644, 102

69 ,,.,.. 24) < 4-10> FDI ( : ) ( ) ,951 35,849 40,180 44,237 43,751 40,319 40,772 1,229 1,559 1,864 2, ,926 4,928 4,164 6,213 10,460 11,368 14,776 24,591 64, ,776 2,325 2,844 5,412 10,598 10,186 4,798 8,788 10,372 12,967 6,316 7,197 6,390 3,964 5,816 7,296 6,513 2,700 3,532 5,542 1,927 2,004 2,271 3,627 5,143 3,562 2,448 1,524 4,346 6,194 4, ,745-4, ,459 1,520 1,249 1, , ,336 2,519 2,824 2,254 1,991 2,081 : UNCTAD, World Investment Report < 4-5> WTO. 24) UNCTAD, World Investment Report 2001

70 50.. < 4-5> : %, 6.2% % %. 45% 98 56%. B 136%. (ING ) B- < 4-11> : IIF, Capital Flows to Emerging Economies External Financing( ) ( :%)

71 51 2).. WTO., IBM, AT&T,,,,,, ,,,,,.,, GM, GE, JVC, IBM, Intel R&D R&D. R&D. 25).,. UNCTAD % 81% % 59%. 26) ,000. WTO.. 25) UNCTAD, World Investment Report 2001, Press release, p )

72 52 < 4-12> , IC , , , IBM - 3 NEC - 2 BASF - 2 ( 26, 10 ) - PVS ABS Shell - Sinopec CNOOC 17 BP - 25, , GM - 7,000-5,000-11, : ABN-Amro, Asian Achor, Q (1) 1). GDP GDP 10 3% 10 8%.

73 53. < 4-13> % < 4-13> ( :%) : IMF, DOT( KOTIS ) %, 2.5% 4% % 3.9%,, % %,,,.

74 54. < 4-14> < 4-14 > ( :, %) ,846 10,545 10,130 14,199 3,495 1, ,857 14,499 10,691 16,253 7,102 2, ,867 19,958 11,292 18,569 14,409 3, ,877 27,472 11,927 21,215 29,234 5, ,398 2,065 1,611 2, ,194 4,842 3,903 3,929 1, ,955 11,361 9,472 7,532 8,335 1, ,184 26,659 22,986 14,439 45,796 2,773 : IMF, DOT ,,..

75 55 (2) 1) , TV, VTR 60%, 40% % %,, VTR 30% % % % % 2.5%.

76 56 < 4-15> ( : %) TV VTR EDP EDP IC : 10, EDP,, : JRI Asia Monthly, , p. 3 < 4-16> ( :,%) : JETRO. 99,, NEC.,..

77 57 < 4-17> 1999 TV,,,, CD, DVD,, : Nikkei Business ) % 8.4%.. 5 IT 1/3. 27) 1999 IT ( ) 52.7% 33.2% 27) Singapore, MTI, Convergence of cross- straits economic interests and implications for Singapore. MTI 2/4

78 58 (95%), (86%),, CD/DVD, (60%), (45%), (45%) IT 60%. < 4-6> ( : ) : < 4-18> ( : %) : Singapore, MTI, Convergence of cross-straits economic interests and implications for Singapore. MTI 2/4

79 , UNCTAD.. 3) 70. 1,,, , ,, ,,

80 % %.. < 4-19> ( :,%) ,849 4,503(17.0) 5,755(27.8) 2,841(3.5) 4,226 4,062(-3.9) 5,060(24.6) 2,527(8.0) ,584 1,675(5.7) 2,565(53.1) 1,283(21.0) 2,675 3,607(34.8) 5,480(51.9) 2,813(20.5) - 1,091-1, ,530 1,132 1,437(26.9) 2,244(56.2) 1,219(10.8) 2,423 2,782(14.8) 4,380(57.5) 2,292(18.4) - 1,291-1,345-2,136-1,073 1,168 1,779(52.3) 3,061(72.0) 1,391(-6.1) 2,462 3,051(23.9) 4,402(44.3) 2,022(-0.8) - 1,294-1,272-1, ,492 1,380(-7.5) 1,464(6.1) 726(4.5) (75.5) 1,677(84.8) 931(29.4) (6.8) 1,537(59.5) 820(35.5) (63.0) 929(162.2) 579(96.9) , ,738 19,121 8,280 12,520 14,764 21,928 11,164-2,368-3,026-2,807-2,884 : ,.,,,

81 61 (Intra-industry). (3) 1)..,,.,, ( ),

82 ,.... WTO % % , ) GDP 1,,,,, GDP 840, 4,700,.

83 63. (FTAA) 2005 EU NAFTA FTAA ,, (65 ) 23.1% 2025, 20%...,..,,

84 64... < 4-20> ( :, %) : UN( ) APEC.. (AMF)..,.,

85 (1) , ,.,, % 24%. 28). 28) 2000 ( )

86 66 WTO 2. (2). NICs. NICs,,. NICs.., NICs. 29) % , %. 29)

87 67 (3)..,....,.. EU,,,.. WTO ,

88 68 2. (1)., EU, 3 4.,.,...,...., ,, GATT

89 69 WTO.. (FTA).....,..,. (2) % %

90 70. (value chain),. IT. < 5-1>.....,, IT.. R&D., R&D.

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