KDI 경제동향 ( ) 인쇄 발행 216 년 11 월 3 일 216 년 11 월 4 일 발행인 김준경 발행처 한국개발연구원 등록 1975년 5월 23일제6-4호 주소 세종특별자치시남세종로 263 전화 (44) 팩스 (44) 인쇄 지아이

Transcription

1 KDI 경제동향 monthly Economic trends KDI 경제동향 monthly Economic trends (우)3149 세종특별자치시 남세종로 263 TEL FAX

2 KDI 경제동향 ( ) 인쇄 발행 216 년 11 월 3 일 216 년 11 월 4 일 발행인 김준경 발행처 한국개발연구원 등록 1975년 5월 23일제6-4호 주소 세종특별자치시남세종로 263 전화 (44) 팩스 (44) 인쇄 지아이지인 c 한국개발연구원 216

3 총괄국내총생산경기소비설비투자건설투자대외거래노동시장물가금융시장재정세계경제 김성태 정규철황세진정대희구희일오지윤이유진조덕상신동한정규철황세진권규호한일수김지운정유경천소라원선재김지섭노경아김성태이우열이상규이우열황세진 본자료는 KDI 홈페이지를통해서도보실수있습니다.

4 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 Contents 주요 경제지표 Major Economic Indicators 요약 및 평가 Summary and Assessment 경제동향 주요지표 Major Indicators of the Korean Economy 1. 국내총생산(21 년불변가격) 35 Gross Domestic Product (at 21 Constant Prices) 2. 경기 37 Economic Activity 3. 소비 39 Consumption 4. 설비투자 41 Equipment Investment 5. 건설투자 43 Construction Investment 6-1. 수출, 수입및교역조건 45 Exports, Imports and Terms of Trade 6-2. 경상수지및금융계정 47 Current Account and Financial Account 7. 고용및임금 49 Employment and Wage 8. 물가 51 Price Indices 9-1. 금융시장 (I) 53 Financial Market (I) 9-2. 금융시장 (II) 55 Financial Market (II) 1-1. 세계경제동향 (I) 57 Major Indicators of the World Economy (I) 1-2. 세계경제동향 (II) 59 Major Indicators of the World Economy (II)

5 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 주요 경제지표 Major Economic Indicators ( 전년동기대비증가율, % / Year-on-Year % Change) Ⅵ Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ 전산업생산 All Industry Production 광공업생산 Industrial Production 서비스업생산 Service Production 소매판매액 Retail Sales Index 설비투자지수 Equipment Investment Index 건설기성액 ( 불변 ) Value of Construction Completed (Constant Price) 수출 ( 통관 ) Exports (f.o.b.) 수입 ( 통관 ) Imports (c.i.f.) 무역수지 ( 십억달러 ) Balance of Trade (Billion US Dollars) 실업률 Unemployment Rate 취업자 수 Number of Employed 소비자물가 Consumer Price 국고채 3-year Treasury Bonds 종합주가지수 KOSPI 원/ 달러 환율 Won/Dollar Exchange Rate OECD 경기선행지수 OECD Composite Leading Indicator 유가 ( 두바이, 달러 / 배럴 ) Oil Prices (Dubai, US$/Barrel) ,916 1,961 1,961 1,996 1, ,35 2,44 2,8 1,99.2 1,172. 1,172. 1, , ,96.3 1, ,96.3 1, 주: 국고채수익률 종합주가지수 원/ 달러환율은기말기준, 유가( 두바이) 는기간평균기준임.

6 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 요약 및 평가 최근우리 경제는 수출 부진이 지속되는 가운데 내수 증가세도 둔화되면서 경기회복세가 약화되고있는것으로판단됨. 대내외부정적여건으로인해수출감소세가지속되면서제조업생산과고용이부진한상태에머물러있음. 수출은세계경제성장세가미약한가운데신형통신기기단종등으로인해 부진이지속되고있으며, 이러한부정적요인은단기간에해소되기어려울것으로 판단됨. 이와함께기업구조조정도진행되면서, 제조업생산과고용부진이지속되고있으며 제조업평균가동률도 7% 대초반의낮은수준에머물러있음. 아울러건설투자가양호한흐름을지속하고있으나, 소매판매와서비스업 증가세가축소되면서경기전반이점차둔화될가능성을시사 건설투자는기저효과등의영향으로증가폭이축소되었으나, 증가세를나타내면서여타부문의부진을완충하고있음. 여전히양호한 반면, 소매판매가자동차, 통신기기등내구재를중심으로증가세가둔화된가운데, 설비투자도운송장비를중심으로부진한모습 서비스업도신형통신기기의대량반품과해운업구조조정등의영향으로증가세가 완만하게둔화되고있음. 별도의언급이없을경우모든증가율은전년동월대비기준임. 1

7 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 경기 : 광공업생산및출하가부진한모습을보이는가운데서비스업생산증가세가 축소되면서경기전반이둔화될가능성을시사 9월중전산업생산은광공업생산이감소로전환되면서전월(5.%) 보다낮은전년동월 대비 1.3% 의증가율을기록 광공업생산은조업일수감소(1 일) 등으로전월의증가(2.2%) 에서감소(-2.%) 로전환되는 등부진을지속하고있음. 서비스업생산도통신기기대량반품사태및해운업구조조정등으로도소매업 (4.8%.4%) 과운수업 (3.7% -.9%) 이축소되면서전월(4.8%) 보다낮은 2.8% 의증가율을 기록하는등개선세가약화되고있음. 한편, 제조업평균가동률은전월(7.2%) 보다소폭높은 71.4% 를기록하였으나, 여전히 낮은수준에머물며제조업생산활동이저조한상태임을시사 광공업생산지수 (3MA) 및 서비스업생산지수 (3MA) 6 ( 전년동기대비, %, 3 개월이동평균 ) 광공업생산지수 (3MA) 서비스업생산지수 (3MA) 제조업출하가감소로전환되었으며, 제조업재고율은전월에이어하락세를지속 제조업출하는조업일수감소등의영향으로수출출하와내수출하가모두부진하면서 감소로전환 (1.9% -2.6%) 제조업재고율( 재고/ 출하비율) 은반도체를중심으로큰폭의재고조정이이어지면서 전월(12.8%) 보다낮은 117.8% 를기록 2

8 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 제조업 출하지수 (3MA) 와 재고율 3 ( 전년동기대비, %, 3 개월이동평균 ) (%) 제조업출하지수 ( 좌, 3MA) 제조업재고율 ( 우 ) 11 한편, 동행지수순환변동치는광공업생산지수, 소매판매액지수등이감소하며전월 (11.2) 보다낮은 1.9를기록하면서경기개선추세가약화되고있음을시사 선행지수순환변동치는건설수주액과구인구직비율등의증가로전월(1.7) 에비해소폭 높은 1.9를기록 동행지수 순환변동치와 선행지수 순환변동치 11.5 ( 기준 =1) 동행지수순환변동치선행지수순환변동치 3

9 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 소비 : 소매판매증가세가큰폭으로축소되고, 민간소비의개선추세가약화되고있음. 관련서비스업의성장세도둔화되는등 9 월중소매판매액지수는내구재가감소로전환되고준내구재와비내구재의증가폭도 축소되면서전월(6.1%) 보다크게하락한전년동월대비.5% 의낮은증가율을기록 형태별로는자동차및통신장비의수요둔화로내구재가전년동월대비 3.% 준내구재와비내구재도각각 1.9% 증가하는데그침. 감소한가운데 계절조정전월대비로는준내구재(-.6%) 가소폭감소하고내구재(-6.1%) 와비내구재 (-5.1%) 도큰폭으로축소되면서전체적으로는 4.5% 감소함. 소비관련서비스업중도소매업은전년동월대비.4% 증가하는데그치고, 숙박 및음식점업은 1.8% 감소 1 월중소비자심리지수는전월(11.7) 과유사한 11.9 를기록하였으나, 향후에는 대내불확실성확대로비교적크게하락할가능성이높음. 소매판매액지수 및 소비자심리지수 ( 전년동기대비, %) ( 기준 =1) 소매판매액지수 ( 좌 ) 소비자심리지수 ( 우 )

10 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 설비투자 : 설비투자는기계류가전월에이어소폭증가하였으나, 감소하면서최근의부진이지속되고있음. 운송장비는큰폭으로 9월중설비투자지수는운송장비가큰폭으로감소( 24.6%) 한데주로기인하여 전월(2.9%) 의증가에서전년동월대비 4.2% 의감소로전환 운송장비의감소는지난 1 년간( 15년 7 월~ 16년 6 월) 시행된개별소비세인하의종료로 자동차가부진을지속한가운데, 선박해양구조물및부품을중심으로기타운송장비가감소 (-57.6%) 한데주로기인 반면, 기계류는일반기계류가크게확대되면서증가세를유지하는모습 * 운송장비( 전년동월대비, %): (6 월) 26.8 (7 월) (8 월) -8.5 (9 월) * 기계류( 전년동월대비, %): (6 월) -8. (7 월) -11. (8 월) 7.9 (9 월) 7. 아울러설비투자관련선행지표들도여전히낮은수준에머물러있음. 9월중제조업평균가동률은 7% 대초반에머물러있으며, 1월중설비투자를반영하는 기계류수입액속보치(1. 1~1. 2) 도전년동월대비 5.1% 의증가율을기록 설비투자지수(3MA) 및 제조업 평균가동률 2 ( 전년동기대비, %, 3 개월이동평균 ) (%) 설비투자지수 ( 좌, 3MA) 제조업평균가동률 ( 우 ) 7 5

11 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 건설투자 : 건설투자는건설기성과수주가모두기저효과등의영향으로증가율이하락하 였으나, 건축부문을중심으로한양호한증가세는유지되고있는것으로판단됨. 9 월중건설기성( 불변) 은기저효과에일부기인하여전월(23.5%) 보다증가폭이 축소된전년동월대비 9.4% 의증가율을기록 건설기성은작년 9 월의높은증가(14.%) 에일부기인하여증가폭이축소되었으나, 지난 2~3 년간주택을중심으로건설수주가높았던점을감안하면, 건설투자의증가세가단기간에 빠르게둔화될가능성은높지않은것으로판단됨. 공종별로는건축부문이높은증가세(17.9%) 를나타낸반면, 토목부문은 6.4% 감소함. 건설수주 ( 경상) 도기저효과에주로기인하여건축및토목부문모두감소로전환되면서 전년동월대비 -38.6% 의증가율을기록 건설수주는작년 9 월중건축(19.4%) 과토목(182.5%) 모두큰폭으로증가(127.%) 한 데에주로기인하여감소로전환 계절조정건설수주는 11조 6 천억원으로금년상반기월평균( 계절조정기준) 인 11조 3천 억원을소폭상회하는수준으로, 건설수주가크게부진해졌다고보기는어려움. 한편, 아파트매매거래증가폭이확대된가운데, 미분양주택수는전월(62,562 호) 보다 3.% 감소한 6,7 호를기록 아파트매매거래량(61,599 호) 이큰폭(9.2%) 으로증가하였고, 미분양주택수는지방에서 소폭확대되었으나수도권에서크게축소되면서전국적으로는감소함. 건설기성액(3MA) 과 국내건설수주액 (3MA) ( 전년동기대비, %, 3개월이동평균 ) 건설기성액 ( 좌, 3MA) 건설수주액 ( 우, 3MA) -4 6

12 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 수출 : 수출은대외여건이개선되지못하고있는가운데일부주력품목의감소폭이 확대되면서부진을지속 1 월중수출은전월(-5.9%) 보다감소폭이축소된전년동월대비 3.2% 의증가율을 기록하였으나, 월간변동이큰선박을제외한수출은전월과동일한 5.4% 감소 품목별로는선박이기저효과로인해큰폭(49.4%) 으로증가하였으나, 자동차(-11.8%) 는 감소세를지속하였고무선통신기기(-28.1%) 는부진이심화 지역별로는 EU(3.8%) 와 ASEAN(2.5%) 으로의수출이기저효과에주로기인하여증가로 전환되었으나, 미국(-1.3%) 과중국(-11.3%) 으로의수출은감소폭이확대 한편, 세계교역량증가세가미약하고 OECD 선행지수도정체되어있어, 향후수출여건이 빠르게개선되기어려울가능성을시사 수입은소비재가완만하게회복되고있으나원자재와자본재의감소가지속되며전월 (-1.7%) 보다감소폭이확대된 5.4% 의증가율을기록 1월중소비재는 2.2% 증가하였으나, 원자재와자본재는각각 6.2%, 7.8% 감소하면서 부진한모습 무역수지는전년동월(65.9 억달러) 보다소폭개선된 71.6억달러의흑자를기록 총수출(3MA) 과 선박 제외 수출 (3MA) 8 ( 전년동기대비, %, 3 개월이동평균 ) 총수출 (3MA) 선박제외수출 (3MA) 7

13 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 9 월 중 국제수지 경상수지는상품수지의흑자기조가이어지고있으나, 서비스수지의적자폭이 확대되면서전년동월(18.5 억달러) 보다축소된 82.6억달러의흑자를기록 상품수지는수출이전년동월대비 2.4% 감소하고수입이.1% 증가함에따라 전년동월(119.1 억달러) 보다흑자폭이축소된 17.6억달러의흑자를기록 서비스수지는운송수지가적자로전환(3.4억달러 -2.4 억달러) 되고해외여행수요 증가로인해여행수지의적자폭이확대(-7.1억달러 -1.9 억달러) 됨에따라전년 동월(-12.9 억달러) 보다적자폭이크게확대된 25.4억달러를기록 본원소득수지는전년동월(7.4 억달러) 보다흑자폭이확대된 8.3 억달러를기록하였고, 이전소득수지는전년동월(-5. 억달러) 보다적자폭이확대된 7.9억달러를기록 계절조정 경상수지 (3MA) 와 교역조건 (3MA) 15 ( 억달러, 3 개월이동평균 ) ( 전년동기대비, %, 3 개월이동평균 ) 계절조정경상수지 ( 좌, 3MA) 교역조건 ( 우, 3MA) -3 금융계정은순자산증가가전월(77. 억달러) 보다확대된 16.5억달러를기록 직접투자는외국인의국내주식투자감소등으로전월(5.1 억달러) 보다확대된 1.3억 달러를기록 증권투자는외국인의국내채권투자감소등으로전월(67.5 억달러) 보다확대된 89.2억달러를기록 기타투자는현금및예금의증가등으로전월의 14.6억달러감소에서 7.6억달러 증가로전환 8

14 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 노동시장 : 서비스업취업자증가폭이크게축소되고제조업고용부진도지속되면서 전반적인고용여건이다소악화되고있음. 9월중취업자는전년동월대비 26만 7 천명(1.%) 이증가하여전월(38만 7 천명, 1.5%) 에비해증가폭이축소 산업별로는제조업(-7만 4천명 -7만 6 천명) 에서구조조정및수출부진등으로고용감 소세가지속된가운데, 서비스업 (44만 9천명 35만 6 천명) 에서는기저효과등으로취업자 증가폭이크게축소됨. 종사상지위별로는상용직(29만 1천명 29만 3 천명) 및비임금근로자(7 만 2천명 8만 9 천명) 의증가세가대체로유지된반면, 임시 일용직 (2만 3천명 -11만 5 천명) 은큰폭의 감소로전환 계절조정경제활동참가율 (63.1% 63.%) 과고용률(6.6% 6.5%) 이전월대비 각각.1%p 하락하고, 계절조정실업률(3.8% 4.%) 은.2%p 상승하는등 전반적인고용여건이악화되고있음을시사 15~64세의계절조정고용률도전월대비 -.2%p 하락한 66.1% 를기록 조선업밀집지역인경남의실업률은전년동월대비 1.1%p 증가한 3.4% 를기록 주요 산업별 취업자 증감 6 ( 전년동월대비, 천명 ) 전체제조업서비스업 9

15 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 물가 : 1월중소비자물가는전기료및공업제품을중심으로상승폭이소폭확대되었 으나, 여전히 1% 대초반(1.3%) 의낮은상승세를지속하고있음. 상품물가는전기료의한시적인하가종료되면서전월(.3%) 보다높은전년동월대비.7% 의상승률을기록 농축수산물가격은배추등의출하량증가로농산물 (15.3% 1.3%) 의상승폭이축소되 면서전월(1.2%) 보다낮은전년동월대비 8.1% 의상승률을기록 공업제품가격은석유류가격상승으로인해장기간의하락세에서.3% 의상승으로전환 반면, 전기 수도 가스는전기료(-12.9%.%) 인하종료로인해전월(-13.9%) 보다 하락폭이축소된전년동월대비 8.2% 하락 서비스물가는단체여행비등개인서비스가격의상승폭축소에따라전월(1.9%) 보다 낮은전년동월대비 1.8% 의상승률을보임. 농산물및석유류제외근원물가는전기료를중심으로전월(1.3%) 보다높은전년동월 대비 1.5% 의상승률을보였으나, 식료품및에너지제외근원물가는개인서비스가격을 중심으로전월(1.8%) 보다하락한전년동월대비 1.6% 상승 아파트매매가격및전세가격은각각전월보다높은전월대비.2% 상승 소비자물가 추이 및 부문별 기여도 4 3 ( 전년동기대비, %, %p) 농축수산물공업제품서비스 전기 수도 가스소비자물가근원물가 주: 부문별기여도의합은반올림으로총지수의증감률과일치하지않을수있음. 1

16 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 금융시장 : 국내금융시장은미국기준금리인상가능성의확대등으로장기금리가 상승하는가운데, 가계대출은주택담보대출을중심으로높은증가세를유지 1 월말채권시장과외환시장에서는미국의기준금리인상가능성등이반영되며 장기금리와원/ 달러환율이상승 국고채(3 년만기) 금리는전월말(1.25%) 대비 19bp 상승한 1.44% 를기록 원/ 달러환율은전월말(1,96.3 원) 대비 48.9원상승한 1,145.2원을기록 주식시장은대내외불확실성의확대등으로변동성이소폭확대된가운데, 지수는전월말(2,43.6) 대비 35.4p 하락한 2,8.2를기록 종합주가 한편, 9 월중은행가계대출은주택담보대출을중심으로전년과유사한높은증가세를지속하고있음. 은행가계대출 ( 기간중증감액, 조원): ( 13년 9 월).9 ( 14년 9 월) 3.7 ( 15년 9 월) 6.2 ( 16년 9 월) 6.1 은행주택담보대출 ( 기간중증감액, 조원): ( 13년 9 월) 1.1 ( 14년 9 월) 3.5 ( 15년 9 월) 6. ( 16년 9 월) 5.3 환율 및 금리 1,3 ( 원 ) (%) , , , 원 / 달러 ( 좌 ) 국고채 3 년 ( 우 ) 11

17 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 세계경제 : 세계경제의성장세가제한된범위에머문가운데, 실물지표의개선을제약할수있는하방위험은여전히상존 미국금리인상등향후 선진국의경우미국이완만한회복세를유지한반면, 지속되면서실물경기전반이위축 일본은소비와수출부진이 주요 선진국의 경제성장률 주요 선진국의 제조업심리지수 9 ( 전기대비연율, %) 6 ( 기준 =5) IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III 미국유로존일본 미국 ISM 제조업유로존제조업 PMI 신흥시장국은제조업심리지수가상승하고일부자원수출국도극심한경기침체에서 점차벗어나고있으나, 수출등주요실물지표의부진은지속 주요 신흥국의 수출 주요 신흥국의 제조업심리지수 2 ( 전년동기대비, %, 3 개월이동평균 ) 54 ( 기준 =5) 중국브라질러시아 중국브라질러시아 12

18 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 미국경제는경기및투자관련지표가여전히부진한상황이나, 민간소비와수출증가 등에힘입어회복세가완만하게확대되는모습 주거용투자(-6.2%) 의부진에도불구하고민간소비(2.1%) 가양호한흐름을유지하고 수출(1.%) 도크게증가하면서 3/4분기경제성장률은 2.9%( 전기대비연율) 로상승 미국의 민간소비와 고정투자 미국의 취업자 수와 소비자심리지수 5 ( 전기대비연율, %) 2 ( 전기대비, 만명 ) 5 (3개월이동평균, 기준 =1) IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III 민간소비 ( 좌 ) 고정투자 ( 우 ) 취업자수 ( 좌 ) 소비자심리지수 ( 우 ) 유로존경제는일부실물지표가부진한모습을보이며경기회복세가다소완만해진 가운데, 은행부실문제등하방위험도비교적높은것으로판단됨. 8 월중수출(8.2%) 이큰폭의증가로전환되었으나, 소매판매(.6%) 의증가세가하반기 이후점차둔화되고, 실업률(1.1%) 등고용관련지표도정체된모습 유로존의 산업생산과 소매판매 유로존의 수출과 경기체감지수 4 ( 전년동기대비, %) ( 전년동기대비, %, 3개월이동평균 ) 15 ( 기준 =1) 산업생산소매판매 수출 ( 좌 ) 경기체감지수 ( 우 ) 13

19 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 일본경제는내수관련지표가부진하고수출감소세도지속되면서실물경기가매우 미약한수준에머물러있음. 9월중에도대내외수요부진으로소매판매가전월에이어 1.9% 의낮은증가율을기록 하고수출도중국과미국을중심으로 6.9% 감소한것으로나타남. 일본의 산업생산과 소매판매 일본의 수출과 수입 1 ( 전년동기대비, %) 2 ( 전년동기대비, %) 산업생산소매판매 수출수입 중국경제는소비가증가하고선행지표도완만하게상승하는모습이나, 부진하면서경기전반이완만하게둔화되고있음을시사 수출이크게 한편, 3/4 분기경제성장률은고정자산투자증가세가둔화되고수출부진이지속되었으나, 소매판매가개선되면서전분기와동일한 6.7% 를기록 중국의 산업생산 및 소매판매 중국의 설비투자와 건설투자 14 ( 전년동기대비, %) 2 ( 전년동기대비, %) 산업생산소매판매 설비투자건설투자 14

20 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 1 월중유가는주요산유국의감산협력에대한기대감이높아지고, 미국의원유재고도 감소한것으로나타나면서월초반에크게상승 유가와곡물가격이상승함에따라대부분의상품가격지수도전월에이어상승세를지속 주요 원자재가격 주요 상품가격지수 6 ( 전월대비, %) 3 2, , ,4 3 2, , ,1-1 니켈구리아연소맥알루미늄 Dubai 옥수수 CRB( 좌 ) 로이터 ( 우 ) 2, 주: 원자재가격은 1 월중( 기말기준) 증가율임. 주: 로이터지수는 1월 21 일기준. 한편, 217 년에유가(Brent 기준) 는완만하게상승하여연평균 5달러대초반을 기록할것으로전망됨. 최근 주요기관들이유가전망치를다소상향조정하고있으나유가상승세는제한적인 범위에머무를것으로예상하고있으며, 원유시장관련주요변수의움직임에따라변동성이 크게확대될것으로평가 EIA 기준유종 215 년평균 주요 기관 유가 전망 216 년평균 217 년 ( 달러/ 배럴) 1/4 2/4 3/4 4/4 평균 Brent WTI 블룸버그 1) Brent WTI 주: 1) 주요애널리스트의전망치평균. 자료 : US Energy Information Administration ; 블룸버그. 15

21 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 국제금융시장 : 국제금융시장은미국금리인상및유로존양적완화축소우려에도 불구하고대체로안정적인모습 금년말미국금리인상가능성이확대되면서주요선진국들의장기금리가다시상승 하고있으나, 금융시장전반의변동성을반영하는지표들은낮은수준을유지 주요국의 장기금리 VIX지수와 신흥시장채권지수 (%) 미국 독일 일본 VIX( 좌 ) 신흥시장채권지수 ( 우 ) 3 한편, 일부자원수출신흥국을제외한주요국의통화가치가하락한가운데, 상당수 국가들의주가지수는전월에이어상승 달러화 대비 주요국의 통화 절상률 주요국의 주가 변화율 2 (%) 8 (%) 영국 한국 일본 유로존 중국 인도 인도네시아 러시아 -4 미국 한국 러시아 인도 인도네시아 유로존 중국 일본 주: 전월말대비. 16

22 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 Summary and Assessment Exports continued to slacken and domestic demand grew less, pointing to a moderating recovery of the Korean economy. As exports declined continuously due to the negative situations at home and abroad, manufacturing production and employment stayed in a slump. Exports remained sluggish burdened by the ceased production of a new mobile phone and the barely growing global economy, which will not be resolved in the near future. Along with this, corporate restructuring is weighing down manufacturing production and employment and the manufacturing capacity utilization rate stood at a low 7% range. Meanwhile, construction investment stayed favorable but retail sales and services grew less, implying a potential gradual slowdown of overall economic activity. Construction investment grew less due to the base effect but maintained a favorable upward trend, offsetting the slump in other sectors. Meanwhile, retail sales grew less mainly in durable goods such as motor vehicles and communication devices while facilities investment shrank particularly in transport equipment. Services production growth showed a moderating slowdown influenced by the massive recall of a new mobile phone and restructuring of the shipping industry. All growth figures are on a year-on-year basis unless otherwise noted. This document is an English translation of the original Korean version; the Korean version takes precedence in case of any ambiguities or discrepancies. 17

23 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 Economic Activity: Mining and manufacturing production and shipments stayed weak and services production grew less, pointing to an overall slowdown in economic activity. September s all industry production recorded a 1.3% growth, down from last month (5.%), as mining and manufacturing production swung to a decrease. Mining and manufacturing production reversed last month s increase (2.2%) to record a sagging growth of 2.%, influenced by fewer workdays (one day). Services production showed a moderated improvement with a 2.8% growth, down from last month (4.8%), as wholesale and retail trade (4.8%.4%) and transport production (3.7% -.9%) tumbled due to the massive recall of a mobile phone and restructuring of the shipping industry. Meanwhile, the manufacturing capacity utilization rate stood low at 71.4%, merely an inch up from last month (7.2%), implying continuing sluggishness in manufacturing production. Mining and Manufacturing Production (3MA) and Service Production Index (3MA) 6 (Year-on-Year % Change, 3MA) Mining and Manufacturing Production Index (3MA) Service Production Index (3MA) Manufacturing shipments swung to a decrease while the inventory-to-shipments ratio continued last month s downward trend. Manufacturing shipments swung to a decrease ( 1.9% -2.6%) as both domestic and export shipments slackened. The manufacturing inventory-to-shipments ratio stood at 117.8%, down from last month (12.8%) on a large inventory adjustment mainly in semiconductor. 18

24 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 Shipment Index (3MA) and Inventory-Shipment Ratio 3 (Year-on-Year % Change, 3MA) (%) Manufacturing Shipment Index (left, 3MA) Manufacturing Inventory-Shipment Ratio (right) 11 Meanwhile, the cyclical component of the coincident composite index registered 1.9, down from last month (11.2), with the decreases in mining and manufacturing production and retail sales, implying a moderating improvement in economic activity. The cyclical component of the leading composite index recorded 1.9, up from last month (1.7) on increases in construction orders received and the job-opening-to-job-seeker ratio. Cyclical Component of Composite Economic Indices 11.5 (Base=1) Cyclical Component of Coincident Index Cyclical Component of Leading Index 19

25 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 Consumption: The retail sales growth and relevant services growth dwindled, indicating a gradual moderation in private consumption growth. September s retail sales index ascended merely.5%, down from last month (6.1%), as sales of durable goods turned to a decrease and those of semiand non-durable goods rose less. By item, durable goods retreated 3.% due to reduced demand for motor vehicles and communication devices while semi- and non-durable goods advanced merely 1.9%, respectively. On a seasonally adjusted month-on-month basis, semi-durable goods receded slightly (-.6%) and durable (-6.1%) and non-durable goods (-5.1%) tumbled, totaling a decrease of 4.5%. Of consumption-related services, wholesale and retail trade ascended merely.4% and accommodation and food services descended 1.8%. October s composite consumer sentiment index (CCSI) recorded 11.9, similar to last month (11.7), as the negative sentiment about the prospective economic situation was offset by the improved perceptions about the current economic situation and perspective household income. Retail Sales Index and Composite Consumer Sentiment Index (Year-on-Year % Change) (Base=1) Retail Sales Index (left) Composite Consumer Sentiment Index (right) 92 2

26 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 Facilities Investment: While machinery continued an upward trend since last month, transport equipment dropped sharply, leading to persistent sluggishness in facilities investment. September s equipment investment index recorded a 4.2% growth, reversing last month s increase (2.9%), mainly due to the large decrease in transport equipment (-24.6%). The decrease in transport equipment is mainly driven by the decline in other transport equipment such as ship and marine structure and parts (-57.6%). On the other hand, machinery continued to increase on large gains in general machinery. * Transport equipment (YoY, %): (Jun.) 26.8 (Jul.) (Aug.) -8.5 (Sep.) * Machinery (YoY, %): (Jun.) -8. (Jul.) -11. (Aug.) 7.9 (Sep.) 7. Meanwhile, facilities investment-related leading indicators stayed low. September s manufacturing capacity utilization rate stood at a low 7% level, and October s machinery import (advance estimate for Oct. 1st~2th) registered a 5.1% growth. Equipment Investment Index (3MA) and Manufacturing Average Capacity Utilization Rate 2 (Year-on-Year % Change, 3MA) (%) Equip. Investment Index (left, 3MA) Manuf. Average Capacity Utilization Rate (right) 7 21

27 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 Construction Investment: Growth in both the value of construction completed and construction orders received retreated due to the base effect, but a favorable momentum was being sustained mainly in the building construction sector. September s value of construction completed (constant) enhanced 9.4%, down from last month (23.5%), partly due to the base effect. Growth in the value of construction completed shrank partly due to the hike (14.%) a year ago but given the large construction orders mostly residential buildings for the past three to four years, a sudden decline in the growth of construction investment is unlikely in the short-term. By sector, building construction posted a high growth (17.9%) while civil engineering diminished 6.4%. Construction orders received (current) recorded a 38.6% growth as both sectors for building construction and civil engineering turned to a decrease mainly due to the base effect. Construction orders received exhibited a downswing due to the base effect from the hike (127.%) in both building construction (19.4%) and civil engineering (182.5%) a year ago (Sep. 215). After a seasonal adjustment, construction orders received recorded 11.6 trillion won, slightly above the first half monthly average (seasonally adjusted) of 216 (11.3 trillion won), indicating no signs of a significant slowdown. Meanwhile, growth in apartment transactions increased sharply while unsold pre-sale housing units dropped 3.% from last month (62,562) to 6,7. Apartment transactions climbed sharply (61,599 units, 9.2%), while unsold pre-sale housing units dropped sharply in the capital region. Value of Construction Completed (3MA) and Construction Ordered Received (3MA) (Year-on-Year % Change, 3MA) Value of Construction Completed (left, 3MA) Construction Orders Received (right, 3MA) -4 22

28 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 Exports: Amid persistent sluggishness in external conditions, exports stayed in a slump with increased losses in a few key items. October s exports declined 3.2%, up from last month s decrease (-5.9%), but excluding vessels highly volatile item on a monthly basis, export growth recorded 5.4%, the same as last month. By item, vessels posted a large gain (49.4%) influenced by the base effect, while motor vehicles (-11.8%) continued to decline and wireless communication devices (-28.1%) decelerated further. By trading partner, the EU (3.8%) and ASEAN (2.5%) turned upward mainly due to the base effect, while the US (-1.3%) and China (-11.3%) showed an increased drop. Meanwhile, the global trade volume growth remained almost flat, and the OECD s leading indicators remained stagnant, implying that a fast recovery in export conditions is unlikely. Imports recorded a 5.4% growth, down from last month (-1.7%), as raw materials and capital goods continued to decrease. October s imports of consumer goods recorded a 2.2% growth but those of raw materials and capital goods remained weak with a decreased growth of 6.2% and 7.8%, respectively. Trade balance ran a surplus of $7.16 billion, an inch up from last year ($6.59 billion). Exports (3MA) and Exports Except for Vessel (3MA) 8 (Year-on-Year, % change, 3MA) Exports (3MA) Exports except for Vessel (3MA) 23

29 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 September s Balance of Payments The current account recorded a reduced surplus of $8.26 billion from last year ($1.85 billion), as the goods account continued to run a surplus but the services account posted increased deficit. The goods account recorded a surplus of $1.76 billion, smaller than a year ago ($11.91 billion) as exports retreated 2.4% and imports ascended.1%. The services account recorded a deficit of $2.54 billion, sharply up from a year ago (-$1.29 billion), as the surplus in the transport account turned into a deficit ($.34 billion -$.24 billion) and travel account retreated further (-$.71 billion -$1.9 billion) on increased outbound tourists. The primary income account recorded an increased surplus of $.83 billion from last year ($.74 billion), while the secondary income account recorded an increased deficit of $.79 billion from last year (-$.5 billion). Seasonally Adjusted Current Account (3MA) and Terms of Trade (3MA) 15 (Hundred Million US Dollars, 3MA) (Year-on-Year % Change, 3MA) S.A. Current Account (left, 3MA) Terms of Trade (right, 3MA) -3 The financial account recorded $1.65 billion increase in net assets, up from a month ago ($7.7 billion). Direct investment recorded $1.3 billion, up from last month ($.51 billion) on a decrease in inbound investment. Portfolio investment recorded $8.92 billion, up from last month ($6.75 billion) on a decrease in foreigners inbound investment in Korean bonds. Other investments recorded an increase of $.76 billion, reversing the decrease last month (-$1.46 billion), on increases in cash and deposit. 24

30 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 Labor Market: Services employment growth dwindled significantly, and manufacturing exhibited a continuing decrease in the number of employed, indicating a worsening of overall employment conditions. September s employment growth recorded 267, (1.%), sharply down from last month (387,, 1.5%). By industry, employment growth exhibited a continued loss in manufacturing (-74, -76,) influenced by corporate restructuring and sagging exports and large drops in services (449, 356,) due to the base effect. By occupational status, regular (291, 293,) and non-wage workers (72, 89,) exhibited a continued increase in the number of employed while temporary and daily workers (23, -115,) posted a huge downswing. On a seasonally-adjusted basis, rates of labor force participation (63.1% 63.%) and employment (6.6% 6.5%) dropped.1%p each and unemployment rose.2%p (3.8% 4.%), implying a deterioration in overall employment conditions. The seasonally-adjusted employment rate of those aged 15~64 recorded 66.1%, down by.2%p from last month. In Gyeongsangnam-do, which has a high percentage of shipbuilding businesses, the unemployment rate went up by 1.1%p YoY to 3.4%. Changes in the Number of Employed Persons by Sector 6 (Year-on-Year Change, Thousand Persons) All sectors Manufacturing sector Service sector 25

31 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 CPI: October s headline CPI inflation edged up slightly led by electricity fees and industrial goods prices but remained at a low level of 1.3%. Commodity prices rose.7%, up from last month (.3%), on the termination of the temporary cut in electricity fees. Prices of agricultural, livestock and fishery products registered a 8.1% growth, lower than last month (1.2%), on reduced growth in agricultural product prices (15.3% 1.3%). Industrial goods prices rebounded to a.3% growth from a long downward trend as petroleum goods prices advanced. Utility fees (water, electricity and gas) registered a 8.2% growth, up from last month (-13.9%), due to the expiration of the electricity fee cut (-12.9%.%). Services prices rose 1.8%, an inch down from last month (1.9%), on a smaller increment in personal service prices such as group tour costs. Core inflation, excluding agricultural and petroleum products, stood at 1.5%, up from last month (1.3%), led by electricity fees while that excluding food and energy stood at 1.6%, down from last month (1.8%). Prices of both apartment purchases and jeonse rose.2% MoM, higher than last month. CPI Change and Contribution by Sector 4 3 (Year-on-Year, %, %p) Agricultural Manufacturing Service Electricity, water, and gas CPI Core CPI Note: The sum of sector-by-sector contributions is rounded off to the nearest integer, which may be inconsistent with the growth rate of the total index. 26

32 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 Financial Market: The long-term interest rate ascended on the growing likelihood of a US rate hike while mortgages, mainly group loans, rose at a fast rate. As of end-october, rates of long-term interest and dollar/won exchange ascended on the increasing odds of a US rate hike. Government bonds yields (3-year maturity) recorded 1.44%, up by 19bp from a month ago (1.25%). The dollar/won exchange rate recorded 1,145.2 won, up by 48.9 won from a month ago (1,96.3 won). The stock market turned slightly more volatile on higher uncertainties at home and abroad and the KOSPI closed at 2,8.2, down by 35.4p from a month ago (2,43.6). Meanwhile, September s bank loans to households, mostly mortgages, continued to rise at a similar pace to last year. Bank loans to households (change, trillion won): (Sep. 13).9 (Sep. 14) 3.7 (Sep. 15) 6.2 (Sep. 16) 6.1 Bank mortgage loans (change, trillion won): (Sep. 13) 1.1 (Sep. 14) 3.5 (Sep. 15) 6. (Sep. 16) 5.3 Exchange Rates and 3-year Treasury Bond 1,3 (won) (%) , , , KRW/USD (left) 3-year Treasury Bond (right) 27

33 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 World Economy: The global recovery has been limited on persistent downside risks such as a US rate hike which could weigh down improvements in real indicators. Among advanced economies, the US maintained a gradual recovery while Japan slackened in the overall real economy with continued sluggishness in consumption and exports. GDP Growth Rates Manufacturing Indices in the US, Eurozone, and Japan in the US and Eurozone 9 (QoQ annualized rate, %) 6 (Base=5) IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III US Eurozone Japan US ISM Eurozone PMI Emerging markets showed an increase in the manufacturing sentiment index and slow bottoming-out of the severe economic slump in a few resource-exporting countries but key real indicators such as exports remained feeble. Exports Manufacturing Indices in China, Brazil, and Russia in China, Brazil, and Russia 2 (Year-on-Year % Change, 3MA) 54 (Base=5) China Brazil Russia China Brazil Russia 28

34 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 The US exhibited a gradually strengthening recovery owing to the increases in private consumption and exports although economic activity and investment-related indicators remained stagnant. Despite poor investment in residential buildings (-6.2%), 3Q growth advanced 2.9% (annualized QoQ basis) led by a favorable trend in private consumption (2.1%) and large gains in exports (1.%). US Personal Consumption US Employment and Fixed Investment and Consumer Sentiment 5 (QoQ annualized rate, %) 2 (MoM Change, 1 Thousand Persons) 5 (3MA, Base=1) IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III Personal Consumption (left) Fixed Investment (right) Employed Persons (left) Consumer Sentiment (right) The Eurozone showed a slightly moderating recovery due to a few real indicators lagging, and downside risks such as troubled financial institutions have been still deemed to run high. While August s exports turned to a sharp increase (8.2%), retail sales growth moderated (.6%) after the second half and employment indices such as unemployment rate (1.1%) remained flat. Industrial Production and Retail Sales Exports and Sentiment Indicator in Eurozone in Eurozone 4 (Year-on-Year % Change) (Year-on-Year % Change, 3MA) 15 (Base=1) Industrial Production Retail Sales Exports (left) Sentiment Indicator (right) 29

35 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 Japan posted weak domestic demand indicators and continued losses in exports, indicating its real economy is fragile. During September, retail sales growth stood low at 1.9%, following the trend from last month, on shrinking domestic demand while exports, largely to China and the US, retreated 6.9%. Japan's Industrial Production Japan's Exports and Imports and Retail Sales 1 (Year-on-Year % Change) 2 (Year-on-Year % Change) Industrial Production Retail Sales Exports Imports China exhibited a rise in consumption and moderate increases in leading indicators but exports slackened significantly, implying a gradual slowdown in the overall economy. 3Q growth recorded 6.7%, unchanged from last quarter, as fixed-asset investment growth slowed and export remained in a slump but retail sales improved. China's Industrial Production China's Equipment Investment and Retail Sales and Construction Investment 14 (Year-on-Year % Change) 2 (Year-on-Year % Change) Industrial Production Retail Sales Equipment Investment Construction Investment 3

36 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 In early October, oil prices shot up influenced by high expectations for an oil output reduction among major oil producing countries and the reduced crude oil inventory in the US. Most commodity prices continued to rise as last month as oil and grain prices climbed. Prices of Key Raw Materials CRB and Reuters Indices of Commodity Prices (Month-on-Month % Change) 6 3 2, , ,4 2, ,2 2,1-1 Nickel Copper Zinc Wheat Aluminum Dubai Corn CRB (left) Reuters (right) 2, Note: Growth rate as of the end-october. Note: Reuters as of Oct. 21 st. Meanwhile, oil prices (Brent) are forecast to rise moderately to a low $5 range on an annual average basis in 217. Major forecastors revised up slightly their projection of oil prices but within a limited scale and oil prices are forecast to fluctuate greatly depending on changing key variables related to the crude oil market. EIA Benchmark Projections for International Oil Prices 215 Average 216 Average 217 ($/Barrel) 1/4 2/4 3/4 4/4 Average Brent WTI Bloo,berg 1) Brent WTI Note: 1) The average of forecasts by analysts. Source: US Energy Information Administration; Bloomberg. 31

37 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 Global Financial Markets: Global financial markets remained relatively stable despite concerns about a US rate hike and Eurozone s QE tapering. Advanced economies long-term interest rates rebounded on an increasing odds of a US rate hike late this year, but indicators of overall investment sentiment in the financial market stayed at a low level. Long-Term Interest Rates VIX and Emerging Market Bond Index in the US, Germany, and Japan 3. (%) US Germany Japan VIX (left) EMBI (right) 3 Meanwhile, currencies of major countries (excl. a few resource-exporting countries) depreciated while stock prices in most countries advanced as last month. Major Currency Revaluation Rates Changes in Stock Prices against USD 2 (%) 8 (%) UK Korea Japan Eurozone China India Indonesia Russia -4 US Korea Russia India Indonesia Eurozone China Japan Note: MoM. 32

38 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 경제동향 주요지표 Major Indicators of the Korean Economy

39 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 국내총생산 및 국내총소득 (21 년 불변가격 ) 민간소비 및 고정투자 (21 년 불변가격 ) GDP and GDI Private Consumption and Fixed Investment (at 21 Constant Prices) (at 21 Constant Prices) 8 ( 전년동기대비, % / Year-on-Year % Change) 15 ( 전년동기대비, % / Year-on-Year % Change) IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III 1 IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III 민간소비 (Private Consumption) 설비투자 (Facilities Investment) 국내총생산 (GDP) 국내총소득 (GDI) 건설투자 (Construction Investment) 상품 및 서비스수출 (21 년 불변가격 ) 상품 및 서비스수입 (21 년 불변가격 ) Exports of Goods and Services Imports of Goods and Services (at 21 Constant Prices) (at 21 Constant Prices) 15 ( 전년동기대비, % / Year-on-Year % Change) 15 ( 전년동기대비, % / Year-on-Year % Change) IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III -5 IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III 상품수출 (Exports of Goods) 상품수입 (Imports of Goods) 서비스수출 (Exports of Services) 서비스수입 (Imports of Services) 34

40 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 1. 국내총생산(21 년 불변가격 ) Gross Domestic Product (at 21 Constant Prices) GDP 민간소비 Private Consumption 설비투자 Facilities Investment 국내총생산 건설투자 Construction Investment 총수출 Total Export 총수입 Total Import ( 조원, Trillion Won) 국내총소득 Gross Domestic Income 29 1, , , , , , , , , , , , p 1, , Ⅲ Ⅳ Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ Ⅰ p Ⅱ p Ⅲ p Ⅳ p Ⅰ p Ⅱ p Ⅲ p 전년동기대비 증가율 (%) Percentage Change from the Same Period of the Previous Year p Ⅲ 3.2 (.8) 1.9 ( 1.1) 2.3 ( 3.6) 7.5 (-1.5) 2.5 (-.4).9 (.2) 4.2 ( 1.2) Ⅳ 3.5 (.9) 2.2 (.6) 11.7 ( 4.) 3.5 (-2.4) 3.1 ( 1.1) 5. ( 2.6) 4.3 (.6) 214 Ⅰ 3.9 ( 1.1) 2.8 (.4) 7.4 (-1.1) 4.5 ( 3.3) 3.5 (.8) 2.7 (-1.6) 4.8 ( 1.2) Ⅱ 3.5 (.6) 1.7 (-.3) 7.9 ( 1.3).3 ( 1.1) 2.8 ( 1.1) 2. (.8) 3.8 (.7) Ⅲ 3.4 (.7) 1.4 (.7) 4.4 (.3) 2.3 (-.8) 1.3 (-1.5) 1.7 (-.1) 3. (.3) Ⅳ 2.7 (.3) 1.1 (.3) 4.4 ( 3.5) -1.7 (-4.9).7 (.3) -.4 (.4) 3.6 ( 1.4) 215 Ⅰ p 2.4 (.8) 1.5 (.8) 5.8 (.5).9 ( 5.5).5 (.6) 2.1 (.9) 6.1 ( 3.5) Ⅱ p 2.2 (.4) 1.7 (-.1) 5.1 (.8) 1. ( 1.8) -.4 (-.1) 1.6 (.4) 6.4 ( 1.) Ⅲ p 2.8 ( 1.2) 2.2 ( 1.1) 6.7 ( 1.8) 5.6 ( 3.3).5 (-.3) 3.1 ( 1.4) 7. ( 1.) Ⅳ p 3.1 (.7) 3.3 ( 1.4) 3.9 (.5) 7.5 (-2.4) 2.5 ( 2.1) 6.1 ( 3.2) 6.1 (.7) 216 Ⅰ p 2.8 (.5) 2.2 (-.2) -4.5 (-7.4) 9.6 ( 6.8).7 (-1.1) 1.9 (-3.1) 5.6 ( 3.) Ⅱ p 3.3 (.8) 3.3 ( 1.) -2.7 ( 2.8) 1.8 ( 3.1) 1.9 ( 1.1) 3.3 ( 2.1) 4.6 (-.2) Ⅲ p 2.7 (.7) 2.6 (.5) -4.5 (-.1) 11.9 ( 3.9) 2.9 (.8) 4.6 ( 2.4) 3.3 (-.3) 주 : 1) p 는잠정치. 2) ( ) 는계절조정전기대비증가율. 자료 : 한국은행. Note: 1) p is preliminary. 2) Figures in parentheses indicate percentage changes from the previous period (S.A.). Source: Bank of Korea. 35

41 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 생산지수 Production Indices 출하지수 및 재고지수 Shipment and Inventory Indices 6 ( 전년동기대비, % / Year-on-Year % Change) 9 ( 전년동기대비, % / Year-on-Year % Change) 전산업생산지수 (All Industry Prod. Index) -9 광공업생산지수 (Mining and Manufac. Prod. Index) 서비스업생산지수 (Service Prod. Index) 출하지수 (Shipment Index) 재고지수 (Inventory Index) 경기종합지수 순환변동치한국은행 BSI 제조업 실적 및 전망 (S.A.) Cyclical Component of Economic Indices BOK Business Survey Index (Seasonally Adjusted) 11.5 ( 기준 =1 / Base=1) 85 ( 기준 =1 / Base=1) 동행지수순환변동치 (Composite Coincident Index) 선행지수순환변동치 (Composite Leading Index) BSI 제조업실적 (BSI Manufac. Tendency) BSI 제조업전망 (BSI Manufac. Future Tendency) 36

42 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 2. 경기 Economic Activity 전산업 2) All Industry Production 생산지수 Production Indices 광공업 3) Mining and Manufacturing Production 서비스업 Service Production 생산자제품 Producer's Product 출하 Shipment 재고 Inventory 경기종합지수순환변동치 1) Cyclical Component of Economic Indices 동행지수 Composite Coincident Index 선행지수 Composite Leading Index ( 전년동기대비, % / Year-on-Year % Change) 한국은행 BSI 1) ( 제조업, 계절조정) BOK BSI (Manufacturing, S.A.) 실적 Tendency 전망 Future Tendency 제조업평균가동률 Capacity Utilization Rate (%) Ⅰ 1. (.2) -1.1 (-.3) 2.7 (.5) -.6 (-.8) 2. ( 3.1) Ⅱ 1. (.2) -1.3 (-.5) 2.7 (.5) -1.1 (-.5) 4.5 ( 2.3) Ⅲ 2.1 ( 1.6) -.1 ( 1.7) 2.9 ( 1.2).9 ( 2.1) 6.7 ( 2.6) Ⅳ 2.4 (.5) -.1 (-.9) 3.3 ( 1.2) -.1 (-.7) 3. (-5.3) Ⅰ 2.3 (.1) -.2 (-.6) 2.8 (-.2) -.8 (-1.7) 3. ( 4.) Ⅱ 3.6 ( 1.5) 1. ( 1.) 3.7 ( 1.6) 1.3 ( 1.8) -2.2 (-2.6) Ⅲ p 3.2 (.9).6 (.6) 3.6 (.9).1 (.3) -7.6 (-3.6) ( 1.9) -5.1 ( 1.9) 2.7 ( 1.3) -4.7 (.7) 2.4 ( 2.3) (-.3).1 (-.2) 3.1 (.1).1 (.4) 2. (.5) (-.1) -2.2 (-.7) 4.3 (.7) -1.4 (-.7) 2.3 ( 1.7) (-.5) -3. (-1.2) 2.3 (-.6) -3. (-.7) 2.6 (-1.3) (.3) 1.6 ( 1.9) 1.5 (-1.) 1. ( 1.) 4.5 ( 1.8) (.5) -3.4 (-.7) 2.6 ( 1.5) -1.9 (-.2) 3.4 (.3) ( 1.2).2 ( 1.9) 2.3 (.5).4 ( 1.9) 5.3 (.7) ( 1.) 3. (.9) 3.8 (.5) 4.2 ( 1.7) 6.7 ( 1.6) (-.8) 2.1 (-1.3) 3. (.2) 2.9 (-1.3) 4.7 (-1.) (-.5) -.2 (-1.5) 3. (.) -1. (-2.1) 5.4 (-1.) ( 1.5) -2.1 (.6) 3.7 ( 1.2) -2.1 ( 1.) 3. (-3.3) (-1.4) -2.2 (-2.1) 3. (-1.2) -3.9 (-3.9) 4.3 ( 1.9) (.7) 2.3 ( 3.2) 2.8 (.3).9 ( 2.4) 3.6 ( 1.9) (.7) -.5 (-1.2) 2.5 (.4).9 ( 2.2) 3. (.1) (-.7) -2.5 (-1.) 2. (.7) -1.5 (-1.6) -1. (-2.2) ( 2.) 4.7 ( 2.8) 3.7 (.2) 3.9 ( 1.5).4 (.1) (.7).9 (-.3) 5.4 ( 1.1) 1.6 (.6) -2.2 (-.5) p 3.5 (.) 1.6 ( 1.3) 3.2 (-.3).9 (.4) -2.5 (-.5) p 5. (.) 2.2 (-2.4) 4.8 (.8) 2. (-2.) -4.8 (-1.7) p 1.3 (-.8) -2. (.3) 2.8 (-.6) -2.5 (.9) -7.6 (-1.5) 주 : 1) 기준치=1. 2) 213~14 년연간지수는농림어업포함. 3) 광업, 제조업, 전기 가스업을포함. 4) p 는잠정치( 한국은행 BSI 제외). 5) ( ) 는계절조정전기대비증가율. 자료 : 통계청; 한국은행. Note: 1) Base=1. 2) Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries sectors is included for annual index in 213~214. 3) Mining & Manufacturing, Electricity & Gas Industry. 4) p is preliminary (BOK BSI are excluded). 5) Figures in parentheses indicate percentage changes from the previous period (S.A.). Source: Statistics Korea; Bank of Korea. 37

43 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 민간소비( 소비재) 와 소매판매액지수유형별 소매판매액지수 Private Consumption (Consumer Goods) and Retail Retail Sales Index by Group of Goods Sales Index 1 ( 전년동기대비, % / Year-on-Year % Change) 25 ( 전년동기대비, % / Year-on-Year % Change) 민간소비 ( 소비재 ) (Private Comsumption (Consumer Goods)) 내구재 (Durable goods) 준내구재 (Semi-durable goods) 소매판매액지수 (Retail Sales Index) 비내구재 (Non-durable goods) 소비재출하지수 및 소비재 수입액 Consumer Goods Shipment Index and Consumer Goods Import 소비자동향조사 Consumer Survey 3 ( 전년동기대비, % / Year-on-Year % Change) 112 ( 기준 =1 / Base=1) 소비재출하 (Consumer Goods Shipment Index) 소비재수입 (Consumer Goods Import) 소비자심리지수 (Composite Consumer Sentiment Index) 소비지출전망 (Prospective Household Spending) 38

44 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 3. 소비 Consumption Retail Sales Index 소매판매액 유형별 지수 by Group of Goods 비내구재준내구재 Nondurable Quasidurable 내구재 Durable 승용차 Automobile 소비재출하 Consumer Goods Shipment Index 소비재수입 1) Consumer Goods Import ( 전년동기대비, % / Year-on-Year % Change) 소비자심리지수 Composite Consumer Sentiment Index (CCSI) 소비자동향조사 2) Consumer Survey 현 재 경기판단 Current Domestic Economic Conditions 향 후경기전망 Prospective Domestic Economic Conditions 소비지출전망 Prospective Household Spending Ⅱ 1.1 (.8) Ⅲ.5 (.5) Ⅳ 1.1 (.1) Ⅰ 2.6 ( 1.1) Ⅱ 1.2 (-.5) Ⅲ 2. ( 1.4) Ⅳ 2.4 (.3) Ⅰ 2.2 ( 1.) Ⅱ 3.4 (.7) Ⅲ 3.6 ( 1.3) Ⅳ 6.1 ( 3.1) Ⅰ 4.6 (-1.) Ⅱ 6.2 ( 2.8) Ⅲ p 3.6 (-1.7) ( 2.8) (-.3) (.1) (-1.4) (-1.5) ( 4.4) (-.5) (.9) ( 1.1) (-2.5) p 6.1 ( 2.) p.5 (-4.5) 주 : 1) 소비재수입액을전월의소비재수입물가지수로실질화. 2) 기준=1. 3) p 는잠정치( 단, 소비자동향조사는제외). 4) ( ) 는계절조정전기대비증가율. 자료 : 한국은행; 통계청; 한국무역협회. Note: 1) Nominal consumer goods import deflated by import price index (consumer goods) of the previous month. 2) Base=1. 3) p is preliminary (Consumer survey is excluded). 4) Figures in parentheses indicate percentage changes from the previous period (S.A.). Source: Bank of Korea; Statistics Korea; Korea International Trade Association. 39

45 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 형태별 설비투자지수 Equipment Investment Index by Type 설비투자지수와 기계류내수출하지수 Equipment Investment Index and Domestic Machinery Shipment Index 5 ( 전년동기대비, % / Year-on-Year % Change) 2 ( 전년동기대비, % / Year-on-Year % Change) 기계류 (Machinery) -15 설비투자지수 (Equipment Investment Index) 기계류내수출하지수 운송장비 (Transport Equipment) (Domestic Machinery Shipment Index) 내수용자본재수입액과 기계류수입액 Import of Capital Good for Domestic Demand and Machinery Import 국내기계수주 Domestic Machinery Orders Received 3 ( 전년동기대비, % / Year-on-Year % Change) 6 ( 전년동기대비, % / Year-on-Year % Change) 내수용자본재수입액 (Import of Capital Good for Domestic Demand) -8 기계류수입액 (Machinery Import) 총수주액 (Total) 민간수주액 (Private) 4

46 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 4. 설비투자 Equipment Investment Equipment Investment Index 설비투자지수 기계류 Machinery 운송장비 Transport Equipment 기계류내수출하지수 1) Domestic Machinery Shipment Index 기계류수입액 2) Machinery Import Domestic Machinery Orders Received ( 십억원, Billion Won, 21=1) 국내기계수주 3) 공공 Public 민간 Private ,193 26,487 5,12 21, ,414 25,545 1,921 23, Ⅲ ,839 5, ,197 Ⅳ ,751 6, , Ⅰ ,395 6, ,851 Ⅱ ,174 6, ,241 Ⅲ p ,476 5, , ,373 1, , ,688 2, , ,151 1, , ,912 2, , ,979 1, , ,323 2, , ,93 2, , ,411 1, , ,631 2, , ,133 2, , ,263 2, ,961 8 p , ,544 9 p ,255 1, ,648 전년동기대비 증가율 (%) Percentage Change from the Same Period of the Previous Year Ⅲ 1.2 ( 5.2) (-1.) Ⅳ 1.6 ( -1.2) ( 9.2) Ⅰ -7.1 ( -8.7) ( -6.3) Ⅱ.8 ( 6.4) ( 4.6) Ⅲ p -4.9 ( -1.6) ( -6.) ( 1.4) ( 5.8) ( -.9) ( 6.) ( -5.2) ( -8.1) ( 3.7) ( 23.) ( -6.5) (-3.2) ( -7.1) ( 36.4) ( 6.1) ( -8.) ( 3.1) (-1.1) (.1) ( 7.4) ( 5.) ( 19.2) (-11.9) (-15.6) p 2.9 ( 13.4) ( -9.7) p -4.2 ( -2.1) ( 12.2) 주 : 1) 선박제외. 2) 백만달러. 3) 선박제외, 21 년불변가격. 4) p 는잠정치( 단, 기계류수입액은제외). 5) ( ) 는계절조정전기대비증가율. 자료 : 한국은행; 통계청; 무역협회. Note: 1) Vessels are excluded. 2) Million US Dollars. 3) Vessels are excluded, at 21 Constant Prices. 4) p is preliminary (Machinery Import is excluded). 5) Figures in parentheses indicate percentage changes from the previous period (S.A.). Source: Bank of Korea; Statistics Korea; International Trade Association. 41

47 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 건설기성액( 불변가격) 및 국내건설수주공사종류별 건설기성액 ( 불변가격) Construction Completed (at 21 Constant Prices) Value of Construction Completed by Type and Construction Orders Received (at 21 Constant Prices) 28 ( 전년동기대비, % / Year-on-Year % Change) ( 전년동기대비, % / Year-on-Year % Change) 건설기성액 ( 좌 ) / Value of Cons. Completed (left) 건축 (Building) 국내건설수주 ( 우 ) / Cons. Orders Received (right) 토목 (Civil Engineering) 건축허가면적 및 건축착공면적 Building Construction Permits and Building Construction Initiated 주택건설 및 미분양 주택 수 Housing Construction and Number of Unsold Houses 1 ( 전년동기대비, % / Year-on-Year % Change) ( 전년동기비, % / Y-on-Y %) ( 전월비, 호 / M-on-M Unit) 건축허가면적 (Building Construction Permits) 주택건설 ( 좌 ) / Housing Construction (left) 건축착공면적 (Building Construction Initiated) 미분양 ( 우 ) / Num. of Unsold Houses (right) 42

48 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 5. 건설투자 Construction Investment 건설기성액 1) Value of Construction Completed 합계 Total 공사종류별 By Type 건축 Building 토목 Civil Engineering 국내건설수주 Construction Orders Received 건축허가면적 Building Construction Permits ( 십억원, 천m2, 호, Billion Won, Thousand m2, Unit) 건축착공면적 Building Construction Initiated 주택건설 Housing Construction 미분양주택수 3) Number of Unsold Houses ,67 55,94 33,73 9,66 141, , ,251 4, ,713 59,265 32, , ,84 152, ,328 61, Ⅲ 22,788 15,15 7,638 36,44 57,537 36,468 24,6 32,524 Ⅳ 26,551 17,189 9,362 37,27 51,79 45,52 225,188 61, Ⅰ 22,322 15,95 7,227 28,927 4,636 28, ,9 53,845 Ⅱ 27,328 18,43 8,898 32,992 49,3 4, ,3 59,999 Ⅲ p 26,699 18,619 8,8 37,766 43,258 35,82 164,243 6, ,231 5,361 2,87 19,97 17,841 11,46 87,955 32, ,812 5,325 2,487 1,378 17,159 18,131 64,2 32, ,19 5,465 2,554 13,226 16,13 15,96 62,823 49, ,72 6,398 4,322 13,666 18,51 11,412 98,165 61, ,84 4,656 2,148 7,225 12,199 6,938 47,536 6, ,729 4,66 2,7 1,14 12,259 8,886 53,723 55,13 3 8,789 5,779 3,1 11,687 16,179 12,687 61,75 53, ,187 5,643 2,544 1,828 15,583 14,456 59,675 53, ,636 5,919 2,717 9,657 16,196 13,28 52,713 55, ,55 6,868 3,637 12,57 17,251 12,793 79,912 59,999 7 p 8,668 6,12 2,655 12,55 16,61 12,917 61,387 63,127 8 p 9,22 6,285 2,737 13,496 15,74 11,522 54,832 62,562 9 p 9,9 6,322 2,687 11,72 11,573 11,381 48,24 6,7 전년동기대비 증가율 (%) Percentage Change from the Same Period of the Previous Year , , Ⅲ 6.2 ( 6.4) ( 21.3) ,544 Ⅳ 8. (.) (-26.5) , Ⅰ 14.8 ( 9.4) ( 17.7) ,667 Ⅱ 19.2 ( 2.3) (-1.2) ,154 Ⅲ p 17.2 ( 4.6) ( 37.5) ( 4.) ( 59.9) (-5.7) (-46.9) (-.5) ( 19.7) , ( 7.5) (-33.5) , (.6) ( 19.5) ( 2.) ( 44.3) , ( 7.4) (-12.5) , (-7.3) ( 4.4) ( 4.9) (-22.1) , ( 3.7) ( -4.) ,543 7 p 19.6 (.2) ( 63.1) ,128 8 p 23.5 ( 3.2) ( 9.5) p 9.4 (-4.7) (-31.1) ,862 주 : 1) 21 년불변가격. 2) p 는잠정치. 3) 전기대비증감. 4) ( ) 는계절조정전기대비증가율. 자료 : 통계청; 국토교통부. Note: 1) At 21 Constant Prices. 2) p is preliminary. 3) Month-on-month number changes. 4) Figures in parentheses indicate percentage changes from the previous period (S.A.). Source: Statistics Korea; Ministry of Land Infrastructure and Transport. 43