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1 24 1( 83) pp The Examination of Financial Analysts Earnings Forecasting Ability in Korean Hospitality Companies Ahn, Yoon-YoungJung, Yoo-Li The primary purpose of this research is to empirically investigate the forecasting ability of financial analyst who issues research report about the hospitality companies listed on the KOSPI and the KOSDAQ market. The financial analysts earnings forecast data is based on the FN-Guide and KIS-VALUE forecasts of annual earnings D/B from 2005 to 2014 during 10years period. To test research hypotheses, we adopted an equality of coefficient test method suggested by Jennings(1990). To study the effects of prior period operating cash flows and accruals on current earnings forecast, we performed multiple regressions of earnings forecasts on prior period operating cash flows, total accruals, discretionary accruals and non-discretionary accruals. A positive (negative) coefficient on any of the independent variables suggests over-weighting(under-weighting). The overall result is summarized as follows. Financial analysts attached the different weight to operating cash flows(discretionary accruals) and total accruals(non-discretionary accruals) and also weighted total accruals(non-discretionary accruals) information more than operating cash flows(discretionary accruals). This result means that financial analysts are able to discriminate between operating cash flows(discretionary accruals) and total accruals(non-discretionary accruals) components embedded in earnings. The results are expected to enhance investors understanding of the analysts earnings forecast characteristics and give more accurate beliefs about the future performance of Korean hospitality companies. Financial analyst, Earnings forecast, Accruals, Discretionary accruals, Non-discretionary accruals

2 (, 2013), 1). Hospitality. (, 2005a; Bhushan, 1989), Hospitality. Hospitality,. (financial analyst), (forecasts), (recommendation) (research report).,,, (information intermediaries) (Bhushan, 1989; Chen & Steiner, 2000; Chung & Jo, 1996; Degeorge, Ding, Jeanjean, & Stolowy, 2005; Lang & Lundholm, 1996; Lang, Lins, & Miller, 2004).,.,.? 2).,. Hospitality, Hospitality. 3),

3 ,, Hospitality. (sector analyst) Hospitality, Hospitality., - --, Hospitality. Hospitality Hospitality. Hospitality. Hospitality ( ),. 3,,.,..,, (Ahmed, Nainar, & Zhang, 2006; Bradshaw, Richardson, & Sloan, 2001)., (Elgers, Lo, & Pfeiffer, 2003).,,..,. (accrual basis)() () (), ()

4 () ()., (cash basis)., (total accruals) (, 2004;, 2007; Hribar & Collins, 2002).,.. - = - = = + Earnings = CFO + ACC (1) (1) Earnings, CFO, ACC. (1).,, (, 2003; DeAngelo, 1986; Dechow, Sloan, & Sweeney, 1995; Healy, 1985; Jones, 1991). (discretionary accruals) (non-discretionary accruals), (1) (2). (2) DA, NDA. = + = + + Earnings = CFO + DA + NDA (2),.,.,. Healy (1985) DeAngelo (1986) Jones (1991), Dechow et al. (1995) Jones (, 2005b;, 2003). Jones Jones,. Jones. 4)

5 ACC it/asset it-1 = a 0/Asset it-1 + b 0[(SALES it- AR it)/ Asset it-1] + b 1(PPE it / Asset it-1) + ε it (3), ACC it i t, SALES it, AR it, PPE it, Asset it-1 i (t-1).,., (heteroscedasticity) (Dechow et al., 1995).,. Dechow et al. (1995) Jones. (forecasting ability) 2. (forecast error) (forecast accuracy)....,, (Ahmed et al., 2006; Bradshaw et al., 2001; Elgers et al., 2003).,.., Ahmed et al. (2005),.. Enron Worldcom (Munk, 2002; Thorton, Elstrom, & McNamee, 2002)., Hospitality. Hospitality

6 .,., [ 1]. Forecast, CFO ACC. Forecast t = θ 0 + θ 1CFO t-1 + θ 2Earnings t-1 + ε t (4) (4) Earnings. (1) Earnings = CFO + ACC (4) Earnings (5). Forecast t = θ 0 + θ 1CFO t-1 + θ 2(CFO+ACC) t-1 + ε t Forecast t = θ 0 + (θ 1+θ 2)CFO t-1 + θ 2ACCt -1 + ε t (5) [ 1] Forecast t = β 0 + β 1CFO t-1 + β 2ACC t-1 + ε t,, [ 1]., β 1 β 2 (β 1β 2). Jennings (1990) (test of equality of coefficients), [ 1] (β 1-β 2) 0., (t) (4),, (Jennings, 1990). [ 1] (5), β 1=(θ 1+ θ 2) β 2=θ 2 β 1-β 2=θ 1. [ 1] β 1 β 2 (4) θ 1 0. (4) θ 1 β 1 β 2,., [ 1] (4) (Jennings, 1990)., [ 1],, (4).,, Jennings (1990).

7 (5) DA NDA [ 2]. [2] Forecast t = λ 0 + λ 1CFO t-1 + λ 2DA t-1 + λ 3NDA t-1 + ε t,,, [ 2] λ 1 λ 2 λ 3,, λ 2 λ 3 (λ 2λ 3)., [ 2] (λ 2-λ 3) 0. (6). (6) φ 2 0. (6) φ 2 λ 2 λ 3,., [ 2] (6) (Jennings, 1990)., [ 2],, (6). Forecast t = φ 0 + φ 1CFO t-1 + φ 2DA t-1 + φ 3Earnings t-1 + ε t (6) Jennings (1990), Earnings = CFO + ACC, (ACC) (DA) (NDA) ACC = DA + NDA (6) (7). Forecast t = φ 0 + φ 1CFO t-1 + φ 2DA t-1 + φ 3(CFO + DA + NDA) t-1 + ε t Forecast t = φ 0 + (φ 1+φ 3)CFO t-1 + (φ 2+φ 3)DA t-1 + φ 3NDA t-1 + ε t (7) [ 2] (7), λ 2=(φ 2+ φ 3) λ 3=φ 3 λ 2-λ 3=φ 2. [ 2] λ 2 λ 3 Hospitality.,,. 2 Jennings (1990)..

8 , (Ahmed et al. 2006; Bradshaw et al. 2001; Elgers et al. 2003)., [ 1] [ 2]. [ 1] Hospitality. [ 2] Hospitality. [ 1] Hospitality [ 1]. [ 2] [ 2].. 5) [ 1] (EPS),. [ 2],,. 6) [ ] [ 1] Forecast t = β 0 + β 1CFO t-1 + β 2ACC t-1 + ε t [ 2] Forecast t = λ 0 + λ 1CFO t-1 + λ 2DA t-1 + λ 3NDA t-1 + ε t [ ] Forecast t = θ 0 + θ 1CFO t-1 + θ 2Earnings t-1 + ε t (4) Forecast t = θ 0 + (θ1+θ2)cfo t-1 + θ 2ACCt -1 + ε t (5)

9 Forecast t = φ 0 + φ 1CFO t-1 + φ 2DA t-1 + φ 3Earnings t-1 + ε t (6) Forecast t = φ 0 + (φ 1+φ 3)CFO t-1 + (φ 2+φ 3)DA t-1 + φ 3NDA t-1 + ε t (7) < 1>. Forecast Hospitality (Krishnaswami & Subramaniam, 1999; Lang & Lundholm, 1996)., (Alford & berger, 1999; Krishnaswami & Subramaniam,1999; Lang & Lundholm, 1996),. Forecast1, Forecast2 2. CFO Hospitality, Earnings Hospitality. ACC Hospitality., Forecast, CFO, Earnings ACC, Hospitality ( + /2) (Alford & berger, 1999). DA NDA Jones, (3). < 2>. 7), Hospitality KOSPI KOSDAQ. 9, -, 9 4

10 1) Forecast1, Forecast Jones 40 (4 10)., FN-Guide KIS-Value. - 81, Hospitality 81. < 3>. < 3>, 42% 37%. Hospitality 5.7%. 3.5% 27.4%. 12.2%.

11 , 9.3%, 8.2% 3.9%,, Hospitality. < 4>. < 4>, (t) (t-1),,, 1% (+).,,., 1% (-),. Hospitality [ 1], (4)., Forecast1, Forecast2, < 5>. < 5>, [ 1] CFO t-1 ACC t-1 Forecast1 t Forecast2 t 1% (+). ) < 3>, p. *** : p<.01

12 β θ β θ β β β β β θ ***: p<.01,. 8),,. (β 1) (β 2) (β 1-β 20), (4) θ 1 (β 1-β 2=θ 1)., 1% (-).,. 9) < 5> < 1>, (Ahmed et al., 2006; Bradshaw et al., 2001; Elgers et al., 2003)., Hospitality,. < 2> Hospitality. [ 2],, (6), θ β β θ

13 λ φ λ φ λ λ λ λ λ λ φ ***: p<.01. < 6>. < 6>, [ 2] CFO t-1, DA t-1 NDA t-1 Forecast1 t Forecast2 t 1% (+).,,,.,,. (λ 2) (λ 3) (λ 2-λ 30), (6) φ 2 (λ 2-λ 3=φ 2)., 1% (-).,. 10) < 2>, (Ahmed et al., 2006; Bradshaw et al., 2001; Elgers et al., 2003)., Hospitality,. < 5> < 6>, Hospitality, φ λ λ φ

14 . Hospitality, Hospitality. KOSPI KOSDAQ Hospitality. Hospitality (t-1) (t),., (t-1) (t),. Jennings(1990), 1%.,. Hospitality. Hospitality. (, 2005b),., (, 2005b;, 2003), Hospitality.,,., Hospitality., Hospitality,

15 , Hospitality. Hospitality., Hospitality, Hospitality, Hospitality.,., (forecast accuracy) (mimicry, herding). (). (forecast error) (forecast dispersion) Hospitality., Hospitality,.,., Jones, (Jones, 1991). Hospitality 9 4,. Hospitality 5. Hospitality,., (current accruals) (non-current accruals).., Dechow & Dichev (2002) Kothari et al. (2005) ROA Jones.

16 ,., Hospitality, Hospitality Hospitality,. 강민정 설훈구 자본구조결정요인에대한환대산업별차이분석 호텔경영학연구 박영태 정규엽 안윤영 특 급호텔직원이지각한 성공요인과기대성과간의관계 호텔경영학연구 안윤영 신현한 장진호 연구개발비가재무분석가예측정확성및재무분석수요에미치는영향 회계학연구 안윤영 신현한 장진호 외국인투자자와정보비대칭간의관계 회계학연구 윤순석 이익관리수단에관한연구 회계학연구 최관 김문철 이익조정과이익조작연구의검토 한국회계학회특별연구서 최관 백원선 현금전환가능성에따른발생액의질과시장이상현상 회계학연구 최지윤 안윤영 기업의외국인지분율이기업가치및이익의질에미치는영향 호텔경영학연구

18 The Examination of Financial Analysts Earnings Forecasting Ability in Korean Hospitality Companies Ahn, Yoon-YoungJung, Yoo-Li 본연구의주요목적은코스피및코스닥시장에상장된 Hospitality 기업에대해분석보고서를발행하는애널리스트들을대상으로그들의이익예측능력을검증하는것이다. 연구기간인 2005 년부터 2014 년까지의총 10년간애널리스트들의이익예측치자료는 FN-Guide 및 KIS-Value 데이터베이스로부터입수하였다. 연구가설검증을위해 Jennings (1990) 가제안한회귀계수의동일성검증기법을채택하였다. 전기 (t-1기 ) 의영업활동으로인한현금흐름과발생액정보가당기 (t기) 의이익예측치에반영되는효과를검증하기위하여, 종속변수인당기이익예측치와독립변수인전기의영업활동으로인한현금흐름 총발생액 재량적발생액및비재량적발생액간의다중회귀분석을수행하였으며, 분석결과유의한양 ( 음 ) 의회귀계수를보이면이익예측치추정에반영되는독립변수의비중이높고 ( 낮음 ) 을의미한다. 본연구의종합적인결과를요약하면, 애널리스트들은이익예측치를추정함에있어서영업활동으로인한현금흐름 ( 재량적발생액 ) 과발생액 ( 비재량적발생액 ) 정보에상이한가중치를부여하고있었으며, 영업활동으로인한현금흐름 ( 재량적발생액 ) 정보보다는총발생액 ( 비재량적발생액 ) 정보에더높은비중을두고있음을발견하였다. 이는애널리스트가이익의구성요소인영업활동으로인한현금흐름 ( 재량적발생액 ) 과발생액 ( 비재량적발생액 ) 을구분할수있는능력이있음을의미한다. 본연구결과는 Hospitality 기업의투자자들에게애널리스트이익예측치특성에대한이해를높이고, 보다정확한기업성과예측에대한확신을줄것으로기대한다. : 애널리스트, 이익예측치, 발생액, 재량적발생액, 비재량적발생액

조사연구 aim of this study is to find main cause of the forecasting error and bias of telephone survey. We use the telephone survey paradata released by N

조사연구 aim of this study is to find main cause of the forecasting error and bias of telephone survey. We use the telephone survey paradata released by N 조사연구 권 호 DOI http://dx.doi.org/10.20997/sr.17.3.5 연구노트 2016 년국회의원선거전화여론조사정확성분석 Analysis of Accuracy of Telephone Survey for the 2016 National Assembly Elections 1)2) a) b) 주제어 선거여론조사 전화조사 예측오차 편향 대국회의원선거