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1 * 1) 2000 M&A 99. M&A, M&A, M&A. M&A M&A M&A., M&A M&A : * (02) , leejk@kisdi.re.kr

2 2000 M&A M&A. (Merger & Acquisition) (merger) (acquisition) 1). (external growth). (merge), (acquisition), (divestiture) (divestiture) M&A M, A&D (strategic alliance) M&A. [1] M&A M&A (merger) (acquisition) (divestiture) (mergers) (consolidation) (stock acquisitions) (asset acquisitions) (spin-off) (split-off) (carve-out) (sell-off) (voluntary bust-up M&A,,,, (merger) ( ) 1) Patrick and Gaugham (1996), Mergers Acquisitions, and Corporate Restructuring, John Wiley & Sons, Inc. p.10 2

3 ., (consolidation) 3 (triangular merger), 1 ( :, ) 2 2 (two-step merger)., (acquisition) (asset acquisition), 2) (stock acquisition) (,, (tender offer take over bid: TOB) ), (convertible bond : CB), (bond of warrant : BW). ( ) (joint venture)., M&A, M&A (friendly) M&A M&A (hostile) M&A. M&A, (proxy contest), (TOB).,. (vertical) M&A( ), (horizontal) M&A(e-Bay Auction, ), M&A (conglomerate) M&A. 3) 2)

4 M&A,,,, M&A. 4) M&A 26.2% ) 98486, %. < 1> (:, %) :, 2000, < 2> (:, %) 1999 () 150(36.9) 75(13.5) 332(59.6) 557(100.0) 2000 () 83(11.8) 37(5.3) 383(82.9) 703(100.0) 67( 44.7) 38( 50.7) 253(75.6) :, 2000, M&A (conglomerate M&A). 3), M&A,, 1999, pp.5~ 21 4) IT,,, 5) 4

5 .. 3. < 3> (:, %) :, 2000, [2] 1999~ M&A 293.8% 6) 9.1%

6 . M&A %, %. 1.. M&A M&A 2000 M&A, 2000 (KOSDAQ) M&A. M&A. 7) M&A IT M&A. 550,, 10. 8)9) ,479 10) ) (210 ) 12),, 6).,,,,,,,,, 7) 2 ( ) 1999 ( ) 8) M&A M&A (money game) 9) M&A Ponzi Game lim ( 1 + r ) - r T B t + T + 1 > 0, T Terminal Period, r, Bt t ), 10). 11) 6

7 . 13) PC 14), TV. 15) M&A M&A 16) ( 1 2 ),,. ( ) 17),,. LG.. M&A M&A 1, 3 (SK ) 2, 5 ( ).. 18) M&A IMT-2000 M&A. M&A M&A, M&A. 12) UMS 13) B, S/W, 14) Cable Modem PC 4PC 15) ( ) TV 16) GSM, PDA 20 17) ) SK SK

8 1) SK SK 1, 3. SK., 56% SK, %, 2005 SK 120., PCS 3,,, SK SK,, SK10,941,079 (40.97%), 3,380,216(12.66%), 14,321,295 (54.63%) 19). 20) SK,,. 2) IMF PCS CI PCS. LG , ) 20) 1 3/10,000 ( 111.3) 8

9 ., 47.85%(: 12.9%, BCI: 20.97%, AIG: 14.98%) 7, % SK ( 4.5%) 35%, 25% ,445,040 (20.35%), 3,100,845(11.58%). 21), 5 (3 ),, (ME) 4 2, ) , (Emerging market ),. (Big deal). M&A ( : hard-landing) M&A 23).,. ( ),, 21) 22) 23), ( ), ( ), /

10 LG. M&A ( :, ), M&A., M&A %(3,751) ( 8,150 3,075 ) 24). M&A (leading bank). M&A 2,,,, (, ). 2., 25) ( ) ) 36% 15.7% 25)

11 ., (life-cycle), ( ). 26) ( ) B2B, B2C,,. (HANMIR), ( ) ( )..,.,,,,,,,. 27),,., ( ), (Club-Goods) (Private Goods)., (item),. 26) (Risk Diversification Effect) (correlation) 1,, M&A 27) (public goods) (market failure).,

12 M&A.,,,,. ( ) ( )., SK,,, AOL.... M&A. (integration).,.. 28) A B A B (. 28) (synergy effect) 2, R&D,,,. Sy nergy Eff ect = 1 ( 1 + R ) t [ Cash F low A B t - ( Cash F low A t + Cash F low B t )] (, R, AB A B ) 12

13 ) (). M&A [3] (value chain). (Network Facility Provider). (Network Operator). (System Operator). (Service Provider) ( ),,. (Contents Provider) [ 3] (Value Chain) Network Facility Provider Network Operator System Operator Service Provider Contents Provider

14 .,. 29) M&A M&A. (Entry barrier).. M&A M&A., (expected profit), 30) Entry(M&A) = f ( E M &A, C ) (, E M &A M&A, C M&A ) Entry() f ( (, E E N T R Y, E B ) E E N T R Y, EB ) M&A. M&A M&A., % % %, %, % 29) Joint-venture, (strategical alliance) 30) Gerosky, P. A., The Empirical Analysis of Entry : a survey, Discussion Paper in Economics and Econometrics 8318, University of Southampton,

15 . 31) % 32) M&A M&A 1998 M&A (divesture). (,, ) M&A,,,. M&A (mechanism) (self-restructuring) 33)., M&A M&A. (life-cycle) M&A. ( ) (: capital gain) M&A,, (execution) (incentive).. 34) 31) 32), ,, ) M&A (Jefferey R. Campbell, Entry, Exit, Embodied Technology, and Business Cycles, NBER Working Paper 5955, Mar. 1997) 34) ( ( ) ) (J. Ochs and A. E. Roth, An Experimental Study of Sequential Bargaining, American Economic Review, 79, 1989) (ex:. 1 2 bargaining power )

16 , (negotiation) M&A 35) M&A. (stock swapping), A&D(Acquisition and Development) M&A (, M&A. )., M&A M&A. (convergence),, (facility), ( ). M&A. 36),,., (vertical integration),. 37) 35) 36) 37) A UMS B , / C D, ISP. ( IT ) (, ) 16

17 < 4> ( ) M&A SK / / / R&D / (, ) / CP /, (capital gain) Ponzi Game ( ) bargaining power () (cf. ) (cf. ) ( ) M&A (cf. )

18 . 1. M&A (positive effect) (Complimentary Goods) (Economies of Scope) 38)39). 40).,,.,. (Economies of Scale) 41). 38) 39) (Jones&Hill, 1988), (Joint cost function) C (y 1, y 2 p ) < C (y 1, 0, p ) + C (0, y 2, p ) (, C ( ), yi i, p ) y1.,.,,, (Economy of Combination). 40) AOL. AOL 41) (Long-run average cost) 18

19 , (variable cost). 42). 43),,,. (sunk cost)....,. 44) ( : ),.,.,.. M&A M&A.. 42) AB A B ( ) 1 43) 44) Jose Mata, Sunk Cost and Entry by Small and Large Plants, Entry and Market Con - testability, Edited by Geroski and Schwalbach, Blackwell,

20 one-stop-shopping (transaction cost ). M&A (, ). 2.., M&A M&A ( )., M&A M&A. M&A...,,,,., (foreclosure).. M&A - (mark-up pricing). (bargaining power)... 20

21 .,. (Absolute entry barrier) (Specific cost advantage), (capital market imperfection), (consumer loyalty) (relative entry barrier) 45)., 3.,, (, M&A )., (R&D). 46)47) (life cycle). 48) 45) Gravelle and Rees(1992) 46) Jenifer F. Reinganum, The Timing of Innovation : Research, Development, and Diffusion, Handbook of Industrial Organization Vol. 1, 1989 ; Kamien, M. I. and Schwartz, N. L., Timing of Innovations under Rivaly, Econometrica, 40:43~ 60, ) ( ) (R&D).(Dixit, A., The Role of Investment in Entry Deterrence, Economic Journal 90, 1981), (R&D) (spill over) (R&D) (Nils-Henrik, Entry-Inducing Technology Adoption, Economic Letters 42, 1993) 48)

22 ,. (mark-up pricing) (, ).,.. ( : ). ISP, , ISP. 49). (price discrimination). (price regulating)... ( ) (profit transfer). 50) 49) AOL-Time Warner FTC IMS(Instant Messaging Service)., 50) Michael H. Riordan and Steven C. Salop, Evaluating Vertical Mergers: A Post-Chicago Approach, Antitrust Law Journal, vol. 63,

23 [ 4] M&A M&A M&A M&A No Yes No?? Mark-up Pricing Entry Deterrence Delaying R&D. M&A M&A, M&A, M&A. M&A,. (convergence) (divergence).,, (commercial convertgence) 51), (application service), (commercial divergence)..,,, 51) Alex Nourouzi and Daniel Baker, Fixed Mobile Convergence-Service Integration and Substitution, OVUM,

24 (customized). M&A. M&A. M&A.,,.,. [5] ( ) 52) Vodafone Airtouch 12% 12% Signum 9 49% 5% 5% SK IMT 5% POSCO 5% 28% SK 15% 60% 51% 13% SK 20% 9% 12% 5% 7% 90% SK 7% 14% 58% 48% LG 24% 29% LG 39% 44% 5% BT 10% 24% 9% 8% 15% Softbank Microsoft 5% 56% 12% 29% 15% M&A 52) : Dresdner Kleinwort-Benson 24

25 M&A M&A. SBC Ameritech, Vodafone-Airtouch Mannesmann ( ), AOL-Time Warner( ), Yahoo Broadcast.com, Geocity( ). M&A M&A. M&A. M&A.. M&A, ( ) (per se illegal),,.,, (, ) (M&A Specific) M&A. 53) M&A (Horizontal Merger Guideline, 1992) 54) case-by-case. M&A... 53),,, 00-23, )

26 M&A.. M&A (trade-off). [1], (EVA ),, 1997 [2], M&A,, 1997 [3], AOL-Time Warner, ,, [4],,, 1993 [5],,, 00-23, [6], M&A,, 1999 [7], ,, [8] Alex Nourouzi and Daniel Baker, Fixed Mobile Convergence - Service Integration and Substitution, OVUM, 1999 [9] David Reifen and Michael Vita, Comment : Is there new thinking on Vertical Mergers?, Antitrust Law Journal, vol. 95, 1995 [10] H. Gravelle and R. Rees, Micro Economics, Long Man Group, 1992 [11] Jeniffer F. Reinganum, The T iming of Innovation : Research, Development, and Diffusion, Handbook of Industrial Organization vol., 1989 [12] Jose Mata, Sunk Cost and Entry by Small and Large Plants, Entry and Market Contestability, Edited by Geroski and Schwalbach, Blackwell, 1991 [13] Kamien, M. I. and Schwartz, N. L., Timing of Innovations under Rivaly, Econometrica, 40:43~ 60, 1972 [14] Michael H. Riordan and Steven C. Salop, Evaluating Vertical Mergers: A Post-Chicago Approach, Antitrust Law Journal, vol. 63, 1995 [15] Nils-Henrik, Entry-Inducing Technology Adoption, Economic Letters 42,

27 [16] OECD, Communications Outlook 2001, OECD, 2000 [17], Regulatory Reform in Japan, OECD, 1999 [18] Robert Pitofsky, Mergers in the Telecommunications Industry, Senate Testimony, Nov., 1999 [19] Stanley Foster Reed, Alexandra Reed Lajoux, The Art of M&A, McGraw- Hill, 1998 [20] [21]

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