2012 년도수요예측재조사보고서 국도 24 호선 ( 지도 ~ 임자 ) 건설사업 2012. 12
요 약
Ⅰ. 수요예측재조사의개요 1. 사업의개요 24(~) 4.99km 2 1975, 2006,, : L=4.99km(B=11.0m, V=60km/h) 3 1,955m( 2 1,920m), 3 : 182,151 ( 100%) : ~ : 2012 2019 (8) : ( ) : 67
< 표 1> 총사업비변경요구현황 (A) (B) (B-A) % 4.70km 4.99km 0.29km 6.17 - () 2() () <> 126,860 182,151 55,291 43.6 126,860 113,515 13,345 10.5 ( ) (64,952) (: ) * 2001. 6: 805 24 2003. 9: (B/C=0.73, AHP=0.582) 2004. 12 ~ 2006.12: 2011. 12: 3 5 ( )
2. 수요예측재조사의사유 2006 2012 20 2012 3-10.5%(13,345 ). 38 ( ) 1 6 4 1 5 (,, 2012) 38 ( ). 1.,, 2. 3., 4. 5. 6. 4 1 5
Ⅱ. 기초자료분석및주요쟁점 1. 기초자료분석 2006~2011 0.42%, 1.12% 1.43%, 0.79% 2005~2010 2.44%, 4.80% 4.55%, 2.10% 2005~2010 2.60%, 3.72% 10.26%, 0.65% 2005~2010 3.86%, 5.13% 3.72%, 4.22% 10,267km, 271km, 2,012km, 2,293km, 5,691km
426km, 124km, 107km, 195km ~, ~, ~, ~, ~(), ~, ~, ~, ~, ~ 24 ~ 4,633 /, ~ 7,918 /, 805 ~ 1,866 / 2011 ~ 67, ~, ~ 7, 4, 15( ) 2. 상위및지역관련계획의검토 4 (2011~2020) (, 2011) 2 (2001 2020) (, 2010) 2 (2011~2020) (, 2011) 3 (2012~2020) (, 2012) (,,,, 2010) (, 2002) ( ) ( )
3. 수요예측재조사의주요쟁점 49 100 30 42 2, -,. -,,., -,. -,,. -,. ( 5 )
Ⅲ. 교통수요추정 1. 기본자료및분석범위설정 2011 2009 O/D : 2011 : 2020 : 2021, 2026, 2031 : 2036 (O/D,, ) < 표 2> 공간적범위의설정,,,,,,,,,,
2. 기본자료의수정 O/D,,, ( ) 45 KTDB ( ) [ 그림 1] 직접영향권내존세분화설정결과
O/D O/D -, KTDB. - (, 24(~)) KTDB, 12,196 / KTDB 4,000 /. - KTDB O/D. O/D - ~ : 472,579 (2011, ) - ~ ( ),. - 1. < 표 3> 임자 ~ 진리항여객선연도별이용객현황 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 ( / ) 301,254 316,878 400,869 504,669 432,769 472,579 ( / ) - 4,362 4,591 3,819 3,845 4,692 1 ( / ) /( 14) - 1,017 1,222 1,850 1,576 1,411 -, 2.23.
- 2007, 2008 2009 75~90%. -. - KTDB 25~30%. < 표 4> 신안군연륙화지역연도별인구추세 (: ) 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 7,577 7,426 7,608 7,282 7,230 7,191 7,204 7,256 7,117 7,121 6,864 ( ~ ) ( ~ ) 2,349 2,268 2,285 2,161 2,179 2,195 2,164 2,234 2,163 2,181 2,089 (~) (~) < 표 5> 신안군연륙화지역연도별관광객추세 (: / ) 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 1,007,660 1,275,668 1,472,926 1,857,044 2,040,598 282,566 207,813 281,755 304,050 333,658 39,610 44,505 49,450 171,083 177,650 107,027 230,136 372,730 780,850 830,668-50%.
-,. - KTDB O/D. - 20%, KTDB O/D KTDB. -. < 표 6> 신안군연도별관광객추이 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 1 ( / ) 1,007,660 1,275,668 1,472,926 1,857,044 2,040,598 ( / ) 2,761 3,495 4,035 5,088 5,591 < 표 7> 장래목표연도별임자면 O/D구축결과 (: / ) 2020 2021 2026 2031 2036 2,068 2,164 2,081 2,178 2,109 2,207 2,114 2,212 2,115 2,213 873 867 879 873 890 884 892 886 893 887 96 152 97 153 98 155 98 155 98 155 3,037 3,183 3,057 3,204 3,097 3,246 3,104 3,253 3,106 3,255 O/D - KTDB O/D.
- KTDB, 24(~) 8. < 표 8> 추가반영한장래도로망계획 KTDB 19.55km 4 2019 24 77 ~ 12.1km 4 2016 ~ 4.7km 2 2019 ~ 4.2km 2 2014 ~ 2.2km 2 2012 ~ 9.6km 4 2014 ~ 10.4km 2 2014 2 ~ 16.4km 2 2018 3. 통행배정모형의정산 10, 11, 4 25 2011 ( 5 ) (AADT) 5,000 20%, 30% ( 5 )
[ 그림 2] 정산지점도
< 표 9> 기준연도정산결과 1 (: /, %) 01501 IC ~ IC 23,715 21,536-9.2 2 01502 IC ~ IC 23,408 21,936-6.3 3 01503 IC ~ JCT 26,246 22,979-12.4 4 01503-1 JCT ~ IC 9,381 10,141 8.1 5 01504 IC ~ IC 9,815 10,933 11.4 6 01505 IC ~ JCT 11,661 10,958-6.0 7 01200-2 IC ~ JCT 4,288 5,296 23.5 8 01200-3 JCT ~ IC 19,577 18,085-7.6 9 01200-4 IC ~ IC 24,486 21,637-11.6 10 01200-5 IC ~ IC 25,442 20,528-19.3 11 2401-0 ~ 4,633 4,766 2.9 12 2402-0 ~ 7,918 8,517 7.6 13 24 2404-1 ~ 771 796 3.3 14 2405-0 ~ 3,169 3,228 1.9 15 2406-4 ~ 3,085 2,660-13.8 16 0201-5 ~ 20,382 15,965-21.7 17 2 0201-7 ~ 17,437 15,965-8.4 18 7715-1 ~ 4,726 3,916-17.1 19 7715-2 ~ 4,560 4,338-4.9 20 77 7717-0 ~ 1,409 1,181-16.1 21 7717-2 ~ 1,555 1,716 10.3 22 805 0805-2 ~ 1,866 2,150 15.2 23 0825-1 ~ 3,048 2,496-18.1 24 0825-3 ~ 3,785 3,125-17.4 825 25 0825-4 ~ 9,333 10,476 12.2
4. 장래교통수요추정 2020 2,870 / 2036 2,868 / < 표 10> 장래목표연도별수요추정결과 (: / ) 2020 2021 2026 2031 2036 IC ~ IC 29,091 29,435 29,974 30,552 30,169 IC ~ IC 27,511 27,742 28,436 29,045 28,805 IC ~ JCT 28,701 28,894 29,715 30,762 30,420 JCT ~ IC 11,991 12,114 12,602 12,869 12,931 IC ~ IC 13,769 13,977 14,880 15,413 15,778 IC ~ JCT 14,114 14,335 15,282 15,899 16,324 IC ~ JCT 7,579 7,704 8,179 8,540 8,700 JCT ~ IC 24,207 24,401 25,210 26,297 26,118 IC ~ IC 27,437 27,616 28,300 29,032 29,065 IC ~ IC 24,342 24,380 25,084 25,610 25,738 ~ () 2,870 2,884 2,899 2,885 2,868 ~ 5,342 5,367 5,231 5,202 5,089 ~ 9,518 9,459 9,210 9,058 8,775 24 ~ 926 928 922 925 919 ~ 3,199 3,201 3,172 3,146 3,118 ~ 4,537 4,594 5,045 4,785 5,461 ~ 20,540 20,541 21,011 21,456 21,296 2 ~ 20,447 20,358 20,510 20,515 20,523 ~ 11,417 11,382 11,221 11,068 10,845 ~ 13,137 13,079 12,720 12,321 12,198 77 ~ 976 976 970 942 952 ~ 2,497 2,481 2,369 2,175 2,156 805 ~ 1,723 1,711 1,685 1,661 1,655 ~ 3,975 3,980 4,294 3,913 4,522 ~ 3,488 3,448 3,597 3,643 3,498 825 ~ 11,668 11,574 11,308 10,514 10,755
5. 기존연구결과와의비교 - 2020 2,870 / 2,789 / 81 /. < 표 11> 기존연구결과와의교통수요추정결과비교 (: / ) 2000 2010 2015 2020 2021 2026 2031 2036 1,786 2,429 2,491 2,789 - - - - - - 2,870 2,884 2,899 2,885 2,868 ( - ) - - (+)81 - - - - (%) - - (+)2.9% - - - - -,. -. 2, 50%. -., 2007 20%. O/D.
-. < 표 12> 예비타당성조사와수요예측재조사의주요전제비교 (2003) (2012) - : 2000 - : 2011, 2015, 2020 - KDI O/D (2000 ) - : 2011 - : 2020, 2021, 2026, 2031, 2036 - KTDB O/D (2009 ) - 50% - - ~, ~, ~ - ~, ~, ~, ~, ~, ~, ~ - ~, ~, ~ - ~, ~, ~, ~, - ~, ~, ~, - ~ ~ - ~, ~, ~, - ~, ~, ~, ~, ~, ~, ~, ~, ~ ~, ~, ~, ~, ~, ~, ~, ~, ~, ~, ~, ~, ~ - : 53,164 (2000 ) - : 4,183 (2000 ) - : 1,331,900 (2001 ) - ~: 315,000 (2001 ) - : 44,260 (2011 ) - : 3,641 (2011 ) - : 2,422,542 (2011 ) - ~: 472,579 (2011 )
Ⅳ. 종합결론 - 24(~) 4.99km 2. - ~. - 2003 2006, 5 2012. - 1 6 4 1 5. - 2020 2,870 / 2036 2,868 /. - 2020 2,789 / 81 /. -,,. - 30%. - 49 1 4 100 30,, 100 30.