Korea / 디스플레이 목표주가상향 LG 디스플레이 BUY 15 June, 29 BUY 1 Jun 29 BUY 19 May 29 이학무, Analyst, 3774-1785 hmlee@miraeasset.com 박재철, Analyst, 3774-6896 parkjc@miraeasset.com 단기적수익성회복모멘텀유효 NEG 2 개라인사고등으로유리기판공급이원활하지않아 LCD 업체의가동률상승이제한되어 LCD 패널가격이예상보다강세를보이고있음. 이에 LG 디스플레이는 2/4 분기에흑자전환할것이고 3/4 분기에 4 천억원수준의영업이익이예상됨. 단기적으로빠른수익성회복에대한기대를높여도되는시점이라고판단함. 물론중기적으로볼때중국로컬 TV 업체의패널구매력이강화됨에따르는산업의안정성약화로인한패널가격의급락가능성을염두에둘필요가있음.» 목표주가를 36, 원으로상향하고투자의견 BUY 유지» 2/4 분기조기흑자전환예상 목표주가 W36, 현재가 (6/12) W31,15 Upside/downside 15.6% Consensus target price 38, Difference from consensus -5.3% Forecast earnings & valuation Fiscal year ending Dec-8A Dec-9E Dec-1E Dec-11E Revenue (KRWb) 15,865 16,543 14,851 16,311 Op EBIT (KRWb) 1,536 316 716 913 Net income (KRWb) 1,87 524 87 992 Profit (KRWb) 1,87 524 87 992 EPS (KRW) 3,37.59 1,465.19 2,254.46 2,772.21 EPS growth -19.1% -51.8% 53.9% 23.% P/E (x) 1.3 21.3 13.8 11.2 EV/EBITDA (x) 2.8 3.2 2.6 2.4 Yield.% 1.6% 2.4% 2.4% P/B (x) 1.2 1.16 1.9 1.2 ROE 12.4% 5.6% 8.1% 9.4% Net debt/equity -2.7% -1.5% -2.% -19.8% Cons EPS (KRW) 3,37.59 333.5 3,9.5 3,845. Prev EPS (KRW) 3,37.59 (57.2) 1,862.16 2,681.62» 유리기판부족은 LGD 에는상대적으로영향이낮음» 단기적으로긍정적이나중기적으로보수적입장유지 Earnings quality score Earnings Quality Score 29 Historical Earnings Stability 35» 목표주가를 36, 원으로상향하고투자의견 BUY 유지 LG 디스플레이에대한 12 개월목표주가를기존 33, 원에서 36, 원으로상향조정하고투자의견은 BUY 를유지함. 목표주가 36, 원은패널가격상승으로상승한 BPS 26,15 원에기존에적용하던 1.4 배의 PBR 을적용하여산출한것임. 29 년및 21 년예상 ROE 가각각 5.6% 및 8.1% 인것을감안하면 1.4 배의 PBR 은아주보수적인수준은아닌것으로판단함. 단기적으로예상보다빠르게 2/4 분기에흑자전환을하고 3/4 분기에 4 천억원수준의영업이익이기대되는등수익개선에대한기대가높아긍정적인주가흐름예상함.» 2/4 분기조기흑자전환예상 2/4 분기매출은기존전망대비소폭증가한 4 조 2,946 억원으로예상하고, 영업이익은 1,185 억원으로흑자전환이가능할것으로전망함. 예상보다빠르게 2/4 분기에흑자전환할수있는이유는 1) 유리기판공급부족이예상보다더오래지속되어, 2) 6 세대이하라인의가동률상승이제한되면서 3) 패널가격이강세를보이고있기때문임. 6 월모니터및노트북용패널가격이 5~8% 상승하였고, 7 월에도추가적으로 5~1% 의상승이있을것으로예상함. Consensus Forecast Certainty Consensus Forecast Accuracy Source: Mirae Asset Research Performance 45, 4, 35, 3, 25, 2, 15, 1, 5, Trading data 28 25 5 75 1 Market cap ( bn/us$mn) 11,218/8,929 Shares outstanding 357.8mn Free float 65% 52-week price high/low 16,65 42,85 Daily average volume (3M) US$12.4mn Performance 1M 3M 12M Absolute -.2% 2.3% -25.1% Relative to KOSPI -2.% -6.3% -7.2% Absolute (US$) -1.1% 44.2% -38.% Major shareholders LG Display Ord KR (3422.KS) Jun-8 Aug-8 Oct-8 Dec-8 Feb-9 Apr-9 Jun-9 Source: Thomson Reuters PriceClose relative to.ks11 (rhs) LG Electronics 37.9% Mirae Asset Investment 4.78% 12 17 93 8 67 53 4 27 13 12
이학무, Analyst, 3774 1785 hmlee@miraeasset.com LG 디스플레이 15 June, 29» 유리기판부족은 LGD 에는상대적으로영향이낮음 유리기판부족영향이 LG 디스플레이에는상대적으로영향이낮아유리기판부족으로출하가제한되지는않을것임. 그이유는 1) 글로벌하게삼성전자다음으로높은구매력을가지고있어 2) 유리기판업체로부터공급우선권을가지고있을것이며, 3) 최근문제가있었던 NEG 의구매비중이 3% 대수준으로아주심각한상황을야기할수준이아니기때문임. LG 디스플레이는 1) 높은구매력, 2) 공급우선권, 3) NEG 로부터의구매비중이낮아유리기판부족영향이제한적» 단기적으로긍정적이나중기적으로보수적입장유지 단기적으로패널가격이강세를보이고있고이를바탕으로흑자전환및영업이익규모확대를기대할수있어주가강세를기대할수있을것으로전망함. 그러나중기적으로볼때 1) 유리기판문제가전체패널수급을조정하는효과는 3/4 분기초반까지만유효할것으로보이고, 2) 이미 2/4 분기부터확대하기시작한세트업체의재고축적이 3/4 분기후반에마무리될것으로보이며, 3) 중국로컬 TV 업체의패널구매력확대가과잉경쟁및과잉주문을야기함에따르는안정성약화가능성이있어기존의보수적시각을유지함. 패널가격강세로단기적으로긍정적이나, 중기적으로보수적인시각유지 Figure 1. Glass Substrate Value Chain Panel Maker Corning SCP AGC NEG AvanStrate SEC - 8.6% 9.4%.2% 9.8% LGD - 51.1% 1.3% 38.6% - AUO 34.5% - 39.7% 35.8% - CMO 41.4% - 39.6% 8.5% 1.4% Sharp 52.2% - 43.4% 4.4% - Sony - - 89.4% 1.6% - Hannstar 9.9% - - - 9.1% CPT 66.5% - 1.5% 23.% - Source: DisplaySearch, Mirae Asset Research Figure 2. LG 디스플레이의영업이익및영업이익률추이 패널가격강세로인한 2/4 분기조기흑자전환전망 ( 십억원 ) 1,2 1, 8 6 4 2 (2) (4) (6) 1Q8 3Q8 1Q9 3Q9E 1Q1E 3Q1E (%) 3 25 2 15 1 5-5 -1-15 영업이익 ( 좌 ) 영업이익률 ( 우 ) 13
이학무, Analyst, 3774 1785 hmlee@miraeasset.com LG 디스플레이 15 June, 29 Figure 3. 연간수익추정의변경 ( 연결기준 ) ( 십억원, %) 변경전변경후차이 (%, %p) 29E 21E 29E 21E 29E 21E 매출액 16,673.7 15,671.1 17,328.8 15,469.7 3.9% -1.3% 영업이익 (425.) 638.4 394.6 753.9 흑전 18.1% EBITDA 2,57.2 2,812.2 2,876.9 2,927.7 39.8% 4.1% 순이익 (24.) 666.3 524.3 86.7 흑전 21.1% EPS ( 원 ) (57) 1,862 1,465 2,254 흑전 21.1% 영업이익률 -2.5% 4.1% 2.3% 4.9% 4.8.8 EBITDA 마진율 12.3% 17.9% 16.6% 18.9% 4.3 1. 순이익률 -1.2% 4.3% 3.% 5.2% 4.2 1. Figure 4. 2Q9 분기수익추정변경 ( 연결기준 ) ( 십억원, %) 변경전 2Q9E 변경후 2Q9E 차이 (%, %p) 1Q9 QoQ (%,%p) 2Q8 YoY (%, %p) 매출액 4,244.3 4,294.6 1.2% 3,666.4 17.1% 4,211.3 2.% 영업이익 (219.1) 118.5 흑전 (412.) 흑전 889.2-86.7% EBITDA 432.8 77.4 78.% 144. 435.% 1,587. -51.5% 순이익 (168.8) 126.1 흑전 (255.) 흑전 759.5-83.4% 영업이익률 -5.2% 2.8% 7.9-11.2% 14. 21.1% (18.4) EBITDA 마진율 1.2% 17.9% 7.7 3.9% 14. 37.7% (19.7) 순이익률 -4.% 2.9% 6.9-7.% 9.9 18.% (15.1) Figure 5. 분기별본사실적추정및주요가정 ( 십억원, %) 1Q9 2Q9E 3Q9E 4Q9E 1Q1E 2Q1E 3Q1E 4Q1E 매출액 3,427. 4,122.8 4,623.5 4,369.6 3,499.4 3,536.6 3,836. 3,978.9 영업이익 (45.6) 112.6 413.9 239.9 22.8 44.4 272.9 376.2 EBITDA 48.2 78. 1,79.1 884.5 64.3 581.7 827. 925.2 순이익 (257.2) 126.1 41.2 254.1 53.7 79.6 291.2 382.2 영업이익률 -13.1% 2.7% 9.% 5.5%.7% 1.3% 7.1% 9.5% EBITDA 마진율 1.4% 18.9% 23.3% 2.2% 18.3% 16.4% 21.6% 23.3% 순이익률 -7.5% 3.1% 8.7% 5.8% 1.5% 2.2% 7.6% 9.6% 출하량 Unit Shipment (K) 21,541 26,112 27,49 27,872 27,552 29,72 3,948 31,29 QoQ -5.9% 21.2% 5.% 1.7% -1.1% 7.8% 4.2% 1.1% ASP(W1,/unit) 163 159 167 156 126 118 123 126 Area Shipment (sq km) 3,746 4,778 5,233 5,31 5,52 5,319 5,659 5,782 QoQ -2.6% 27.5% 9.5% 1.3% -4.7% 5.3% 6.4% 2.2% ASP(W1,/m2) 937 868 877 818 687 66 672 683 제품별출하비중 (%) NotePC 16.4% 16.9% 17.5% 18.7% 17.4% 17.6% 18.% 18.4% Monitor 22.5% 18.% 15.7% 14.8% 19.4% 2.8% 19.8% 19.2% TV 56.8% 61.6% 62.% 61.7% 58.4% 56.8% 57.4% 57.6% 14
이학무, Analyst, 3774 1785 hmlee@miraeasset.com LG 디스플레이 15 June, 29 Summary financial statements Profit & Loss (KRWb) Dec-7A Dec-8A Dec-9E Dec-1E Dec-11E Revenue 14,163 15,865 16,543 14,851 16,311 Cost of goods sold (12,77) (13,627) (15,47) (13,32) (14,628) Gross profit 2,86 2,239 1,136 1,531 1,683 SG and A (595) (72) (82) (814) (771) OP income 1,491 1,536 316 716 913 Operating EBITDA 4,147 3,867 2,792 2,974 3,119 Depreciation (2,61) (2,281) (2,416) (2,174) (2,15) Amortisation (45) (5) (59) (84) (12) Operating EBIT 1,491 1,536 316 716 913 Net interest income/(expense) (132) 9 156 136 154 Associates and JCEs (6) (291) 14 55 5 Other income 192 (43) 21 1 1 Net exceptional income - - - - - Profit before tax 1,546 1,293 57 917 1,127 Tax (22) (27) 17 (11) (135) Post-tax profit 1,344 1,87 524 87 992 Minorities - - - - - Preferred dividends Net income 1,344 1,87 524 87 992 Normalised profit 1,344 1,87 524 87 992 Dividends - (268) - (179) (268) Retained earnings 1,344 819 524 628 724 Cashflow (KRWb) Dec-7A Dec-8A Dec-9E Dec-1E Dec-11E Operating EBITDA 4,147 3,867 2,792 2,974 3,119 Decrease in working capital (2,73) 2,591 (247) 21 (636) Other operating cashflow 1,378 (754) 674 249 57 Operating cashflow 3,451 5,74 3,218 3,424 2,54 Tax paid (22) (27) 17 (11) (135) Net interest (132) 9 156 136 154 Dividends received (134) (633) (183) (48) (7) Opr. cash flow 2,984 4,955 3,28 3,42 2,553 Capital expenditure (1,26) (2,613) (2,28) (1,99) (1,99) Net acquisitions - - - - - Net investments 429 (328) (275) 82 (78) Other investing cashflow (536) 51 134 (277) (91) Investing cash flow (1,313) (2,89) (2,349) (2,184) (2,158) Dividends received / (paid) - (268) - (179) (268) Increase in equity - - - - - Increase in debt (547) (148) 25 (6) (2) Other financing cashflow (17) (282) (12) - Financial cash flow (564) (698) (77) (779) (468) Beginning cash 788 1,895 3,263 4,45 4,484 Total cash generated 1,17 1,368 782 439 (74) Forex effects Ending cash 1,895 3,263 4,45 4,484 4,41 15
이학무, Analyst, 3774 1785 hmlee@miraeasset.com LG 디스플레이 15 June, 29 Balance Sheet (KRWb) Dec-7A Dec-8A Dec-9E Dec-1E Dec-11E Current assets 5,644 6,256 8,197 8,66 8,869 Cash and equivalents 1,895 3,263 4,45 4,484 4,41 Receivables 2,463 1,696 2,357 1,949 2,521 Inventories 681 882 1,179 991 1,27 Other current assets 66 416 617 642 668 Non current assets 7,75 1,246 1,365 1,264 1,343 PPE 5,768 3,975 7,763 7,579 7,464 Interest in associates 489 831 1,28 1,131 1,187 Other non-current ssets 1,493 5,44 1,574 1,555 1,692 Total assets 13,394 16,52 18,563 18,331 19,213 Current liabilities 2,245 4,227 5,471 5,12 5,343 Payables 981 952 1,81 1,329 1,452 ST debt 35 499 878 878 878 Other current liabilities 915 2,777 2,782 2,895 3,13 Non-current liabilities 2,86 2,999 3,476 2,985 2,93 LT debt 2,86 2,51 2,155 1,555 1,355 Other non-current liabilities 54 489 1,321 1,43 1,548 Total liabilities 5,15 7,226 8,947 8,87 8,245 Minorities - - - - - Issued capital 1,789 1,789 1,789 1,789 1,789 Share premium reserve 2,311 2,311 2,311 2,311 2,311 Reserves 6 174 (1) (1) (1) Retained earnings 4,183 5,2 5,526 6,154 6,878 Other equity - - - - - Shareholders' equity 8,289 9,276 9,616 1,244 1,967 Key Ratios Dec-7A Dec-8A Dec-9E Dec-1E Dec-11E Net revenue growth 38.8% 12.% 4.3% -1.2% 9.8% Gross profit growth NA 7.3% -49.3% 34.8% 1.% Operating profit growth NA 3.% -79.4% 126.8% 27.4% EBITDA growth 158.7% -18.4% -2.% 7.5% 4.6% Norm EPS growth NA -19.1% -51.8% 53.9% 23.% Norm BPS growth 2.7% 11.1% 3.% 6.% 6.7% Gross margin 14.7% 14.1% 6.9% 1.3% 1.3% Operating margin 1.5% 9.7% 1.9% 4.8% 5.6% EBITDA margin 3.6% 22.3% 17.1% 2.5% 19.5% EBIT margin 11.8% 7.6% 2.1% 5.3% 6.% Net income margin 9.5% 6.9% 3.2% 5.4% 6.1% ROE 17.7% 12.4% 5.6% 8.1% 9.4% ROA 1.3% 7.3% 3.% 4.4% 5.3% Net debt to equity 15.2% -2.7% -1.5% -2.% -19.8% Interest cover ratio 8. 13.3 6.9 16.9 22. Dividend payout ratio.% 24.7%.% 22.2% 27.1% Inventory days 2.6 23.7 27.9 27.2 31.7 Account receivable days 63.5 39.1 52. 47.9 56.4 Account payable days 29.6 25.6 42.9 36.4 36.2 Reported EPS (KRW) 3,756.2 3,37.59 1,465.19 2,254.46 2,772.21 Norm EPS (KRW) 3,756.2 3,37.59 1,465.19 2,254.46 2,772.21 Reported BPS (KRW) 23,166.6 25,924.2 26,873.82 28,628.28 3,65.49 Norm BPS (KRW) 22,854.9 25,38.88 26,15.42 27,729.32 29,583.4 DPS (KRW) 75. - 5. 75. 75. Cashflow per share (KRW) 8,339.84 13,849.26 8,966.7 9,58.54 7,133.65 Reported P/E (x) 8.3 1.3 21.3 13.8 11.2 Norm P/E (x) 8.3 1.3 21.3 13.8 11.2 P/B (x) 1.34 1.2 1.16 1.9 1.2 P/CF (x) 3.7 2.2 3.5 3.3 4.4 EV/EBITDA (x) 2.7 2.8 3.2 2.6 2.4 EV/Operating Cashflow (x) 3.4 1.7 2.8 2.3 3.1 EV/Sales (x).8.6.5.5.5 Dividend yield 2.4%.% 1.6% 2.4% 2.4% 16
이학무, Analyst, 3774 1785 hmlee@miraeasset.com LG 디스플레이 15 Jun, 29 Recommendation 종목별투자의견 (12 개월기준 ) BUY : 현주가대비목표주가 +1% 초과 Hold : 현주가대비목표주가 ±1% 이내 Reduce : 현주가대비목표주가 1% 초과단, 업종투자의견에의한 ±1% 내의조정치감안가능 업종별투자의견 Attractive : 현업종지수대비 +1% 초과 Neutral : 현업종지수대비 ±1% 이내 Cautious : 현업종지수대비 1% 초과 업종별투자의견의용어를재정리함 Overweight Attractive / Underweight Cautious 로 25 년 8 월 3 일부터변경함 Earnings Quality Score Earnings Quality Score =.7*(Earnings Stability) +.15*(Earnings Certainty) +.15*(Earnings Forecast Accuracy) 1. Historical Earnings Stability - 최근 5 년간분기순이익성장률 (YoY) 의변동성을 1 분위지표로환산. - 변동성은 outlier 에의한왜곡현상을최소화하기위해표준편차 (SD) 대신 MAD(Median Absolute Deviation) 로산정. - 순이익분기성장률 (YoY) 변동성이낮을수록동지표값이높음. 2. Consensus Forecast Certainty - 12 개월예상 EPS( 컨센서스기준 ) 추정치에대한애널리스트간견해차를 1 분위지표로환산. - 견해차는 12 개월예상 EPS 의 ' 표준편차 / 평균 ' 으로산정. - 견해차가작을수록동지표값이높음. 3. Consensus Forecast Accuracy - 최근 3 년간 EPS surprise 절대값의평균 (median) 을 1 분위지표로환산. - EPS surprise 는 '( 연말실제치 - 연초추정치 )/ 연초추정치 ' 로산정. - Surprise 의절대크기가낮을수록동지표값이높음. * 참고사항 1) Consensus Forecast Certainty 및 Consensus Forecast Accuracy 는예상 EPS 컨센서스추정치수가 5 개이상인기업만을대상으로하였음. 2) 각지표를산정할수없을경우에는평균인 5 을부여하였음. Compliance Notice 본자료는투자자의증권투자를돕기위하여당사고객에한하여배포되는자료로서어떠한경우에도복사되거나대여될수없습니다. 본조사자료에수록된내용은당사리서치센터가신뢰할만한자료및정보로부터얻어진것이나당사는그정확성이나완전성을보장할수없습니다. 따라서, 어떠한경우에도본자료는고객의증권투자의결과에대한법적책임소재에대한증빙자료로사용될수없습니다. 동자료는기관투자가또는제 3 자에게사전제공한사실이없습니다. 당사는 6 월 15 일현재 LG 디스플레이를기초자산으로하는 ELW 발행및 LP 회사임을알려드립니다. 자료에게재된내용들은본인의의견을정확하게반영하고있으며, 외부의부당한압력이나간섭없이작성되었음을확인함. 작성자 : 이학무, 박재철 담당자보유주식수종목담당자종류수량취득가취득일 1% 이상보유여부 유가증권종목 계열사담당자 자사주종류 해당사항없음 주가및목표주가변동추이 주가 목표가격 LG 디스플레이 (3422) Buy Hold Reduce Not Rated Previously Strong Buy Buy Mkt.Perm Und.Perm Date Recommendation 12-Month Target Price (W) 11/5/27 BUY 68, 11/15/27 BUY 1, (Up) 11/19/27 BUY 1, <No changes in our TP and recommendation> 7/1/28 BUY 8, (Down) 7/22/28 BUY 8, 7/28/28 BUY 8, 9/8/28 BUY 5, (Down) <No changes in our TP and recommendation> 12/28/28 BUY 32, (Down) <No changes in our TP and recommendation> 3/9/29 BUY 32, 4/6/29 BUY 38, (Up) 4/17/29 BUY 38, 5/19/29 BUY 33, (Down) 6/1/29 BUY 33, 6/15/29 BUY 36, (Up) 17