- 2001. 11 ( )
. 1960 90 90-1960-90,, -,, -,, 90 - -,, - i -
. 1960-2000 28.7%, 24.9% 1980 15.9%, 16.9% - 1999 46.6% 26.3%, 18.1% 1990 42.1% 96 51.9% ( : %, ) 1990 1996 1999 42.1 10.4 28.3 20.0 9.6 51.9 10.2 23.1 16.2 8.8 46.6 9.0 26.3 18.1 9.0 6,496 1,259 3,666 2,516 1,258 100.0 100.0 100.0 13,936, NICs( :,,, ) NICs, - 1996 1,193, 113.3 2000 434, 57.4 - NICs 4 96 500, 49.6 2000 150, 20.4 - ii -
1980,, - 2000 50.8 26.1-1980 90, ( :, ) 1996 1998 2000 4 500 49.6 211 33.3 150 20.4 NICS 263 35.4 183 17.6 177 26.8 365 25.1 112 10.6 102 10.0 65 3.2 12 0.5 5 0.2 1,193 113.3 518 62 434 57.4 2,501 481.0 1,597 406.8 1,684 486.1. 1. 1960-1950,, -,, NICs - iii -
- 1960 NICs - 1990 NICs,, NICs -, 4%(1980) 38.4%(1990) 58.3%(1999) (1990 ) 2., - NICs - NICs - iv -
( : ) 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 NICs - 102-124 -266-606 -531 4 103 82-6 -200 15-8 -86 44 69 149-7 - 128-228 -737-367, - NAFTA 47.6% 63%, NAFTA 54% - 2000 10 2,292 ( ) 838, 813, 161, 146, 124, 1990 -,, -, 1996 ( ) 28.8%, 49.9%, 42.7%, 42.6% - 90 IT - v -
3., - 90 90 - - 70 12.4% 80 1.3% 90 3.2% 96-98 4.8% - 96,, 5% (1994-97) 1994 1995 1996 1997 31.9 23.0 1.5 21.0 16.8 30.3 3.7 5.0 9.4 20.0 3.9 4.9 30.4 22.5 5.8-0.0 24.5 25.9 6.0 0.3 22.4 24.8-1.9 3.8 8.8 13.4 9.7 7.3 18.5 29.4 17.8 22.8 ( : %) - vi -
. 1. 90 70-97-2000 7.9% 10.9% 80 182 ( 0.89%) 2000 2,492 ( 3.92%) - 90 2005, 4 2005 4,180, ( 3,100 ), ( 3,240 ), ( 4,000 ) - 3.1%(1990) 8.1%(2001 1 7 ) NICs 3 5 -, (HS 85) 18.4%,,, (HS 84) 12.1% - vii -
(HS 62) 7.3%, (HS 61) 5% - 2000 IT (885 ), (455 ) 3 10 PC (, Legend Group) 30% - 2001 30 10 (2001.3 ) -,,,, - M&A, 1,200 3 200, 2, 34 3 -,, M&A - viii -
2. - 4 (,,, ) 80 28.8% 1999 16.6%, 4 (,,, ) 14.1% 8.1% 4.0% 16.2% - WTO 3.7%(1995) 6.34%(2005) 19.52%(1995) 43.95%(2005), 4.96% 9.48% - 89-94 140 1, 2000 408 - WTO - 2000 B 136% - 56%, - ix -
- 500 400 2000-2000 370 18%, 81% 3. - 10 3% 7 8%, - (1995 2000) 2005 2010,, - x -
-, 2000 33% ( :,%) 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 25.1 19.9 10.7 7.5 10.0-44 -21-46 -30 33 480.2 539.7 407.5 666.9 486.1 5.2 3.7 2.6 1.1 2.5-500 26.9%, 8.4% 2000 IT 60% (2001.8) ( : ) - xi -
- 80 2000 6 191, 219 98 102 125 36.8% 32.4% -,, ( ), - WTO. 1. - -,, 2, 2 11% 24% - - xii -
- NICs - - 2. - -, (FTA) -, - xiii -
- - - - - (value chain), -,, IT - - - xiv -
< >. 1. 3 1. 3 2. 6 3. 8 (1) 8 (2) 9 (3) 9 (4) 11. 13 1. 13 (1) 13 (2) 14 (3) 17 2. 19 (1) 19 (2) 23 3. 27 (1) 27 (2) 31
. 35 1. 35 (1) 35 (2) 36 (3) 42 2. 46 (1) 46 (2) 48 3. 52 (1) 52 (2) 55 (3) 61. 65 1. 65 2. 68
< > < 2-1> 3 < 2-2> 5 < 2-3> 7 < 2-4> 11 < 3-1> 16 < 3-2> 2000 18 < 3-3> ( ) 20 < 3-4> 21 < 3-5> (1999) 21 < 3-6> (2000) 22 < 3-7> 2001 23 < 3-8> 26 < 3-9> (1996) 28 < 3-10> 28 < 3-11> 30 < 3-12> (1971-98) 31 < 3-13> (1994-97) 32 < 3-14> (2000) 33 < 4-1> 36 < 4-2> (1980-2000) 37 < 4-3> 10 38 < 4-4> 10 40 < 4-5> 10 41 < 4-6> 1 (99 ) 42 < 4-7> 43 < 4-8> 45 < 4-9> 48
< 4-10> FDI 49 < 4-11> 50 < 4-12> 1 52 < 4-13> 53 < 4-14> 54 < 4-15> 56 < 4-16> 56 < 4-17> 1999 57 < 4-18> 58 < 4-19> 60 < 4-20> 64
< > < 2-1> 4 < 2-2> 10 < 3-1> (1989-92) 15 < 3-2> IT 27 < 4-1> 39 < 4-2> 10 (2001.3 ) 43 < 4-3> 44 < 4-4> 47 < 4-5> 50 < 4-6> 58 < 5-1> 70
1. 1960, 70-80, 80.... 1960,,,. 1990 1997. (NICs).. 90.. 30. 70. WTO..
2,,,., 21...,... 1),..,........ 1) 30,. 1990 (EAEC)..
3. 1. 2000 2) 1 8,277 6 3,580 28.7%. 6 6,686 24.9% 1 6,610. 20 80 15.9% 16.9% 2000 28.7% 24.9%. 1980 90. : WTO < 2-1> ( :, %) 1980 1990 1995 2000 20,350 34,420 50,790 63,580 3,236 7,923 14,445 18,277 15.9 23.0 28.4 28.7 20,747 35,421 52,179 66,686 3,514 7,622 14,012 16,610 16.9 21.5 26.9 24.9. 1980 280 90 300 2000 1,600.. 70 3) 2). 3)..
4. 1970 200 5%. 1999 9,700, 8,500 18%, 14%. 30. < 2-1> : 2001 WTO 1999 46.6% 26.3%, 18.1%. 46.6% 1990 42.1%. 90. 99 1996 51.9%.,..
5 < 2-2> ( : %, ) 1990 1996 1999 42.1 10.4 28.3 20.0 9.6 51.9 10.2 23.1 16.2 8.8 46.6 9.0 26.3 18.1 9.0 6,496 1,259 3,666 2,516 1,258 100.0 100.0 100.0 13,936 : WTO, International trade statistics 2000 NICs,,, NICs. NICs... NICs,,..., NICs....
6.,... 1990.. 2. 1960., NICs NICs,. NICs NICs. NICs,... 1996 1,193 2000 434. 113.3 57.4.. 96 2,501 2000 1,684. 98 2000.. 4 96 500, 49.6 2000 150 20.4 96 365, 25.1 102, 10. 4) NICs 4) 2000 96, 98. 7.5 99. 99 667
7 263, 35.4 177 26.8. NICs..... < 2-3 > ( :, ) 1996 1998 2000 4 500 49.6 211 33.3 150 20.4 NICS 263 35.4 183 17.6 177 26.8 365 25.1 112 10.6 102 10.0 65 3.2 12 0.5 5 0.2 1,193 113.3 518 62 434 57.4 2,501 481.0 1,597 406.8 1,684 486.1 : 1980,,,. 1980,, 1990..,.. 5) 2000 50.8 26.1. 1980 90,. 2000. 5),. 1 1990.
8.,.. 3. (1) 60. 1967. 1992. 78 (PTA). 60. 80. 70,,,..,. (APEC). 90. 90. (AFTA)
9. 97. GDP 1/3,,,, IMF. 3,. (2). 97 11 (ASEAN Economic Monitoring Mechanism: AEMM). (AMF) IMF. 1999 11 2 +3 2000 5 6 +3 (CMI). CMI. CMI 10 2 10 2000 11. 2001 5 +3 70. 10, 30, 20, 10. (3).,
10, 80,.. (ADB).,,.,. < 2-2> :,, 1999, p....,,,
11. (4) APEC. 2003 5% (AFTA). 6). APEC 93, 94 2010, 2020,,,. IMF, WTO. < 2-4> FTA - 1998 (,, ) 1998 + 3(APT) 1998 ASEAN- 2000-2000 - 1999 AFTA 1993 90..,. 2001. 98 6) 98 12 ASEAN AFTA 6 5% 2003 2002. AFTA (ASEAN Investment Area).
12.. 3.. 2000 +3. WTO. +3.
13. 1. (1) 1950.,,. 1960. 3.. ( ). 7) 1930. 8). 2. 2 3. 7) 1930 Akamtsu( ). 1970 Kojima( )... 8) Edith Terry, The east Asian Miracle- one paradigm Too Many? International Relation Research Archive. http://www.irra.org/ ebt/paradigm1.html
14 NICs,.,,. -, -.. (2) 1) 1980. 85.. 80..,,... 87,. 80 3.,. < 3-1> 1980 90. 9) 9),.
15. NICs,.,. NICs. NICs,,. < 3-1> (1989-92) : 1992 2).,, 1970 85 3 90%. 85. 1980 4% 90 38.4%, 99 58.3%.. 80 50% 99 90%.,.
16. 1960 2. < 3-1 > ( :%) 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 1999 81.9 90.5 91.8 94.1 94.3 92.9 97.9 97.8 98.1 98.6 99.3 99.6 81.4 88.2 90.7 93.6 94.1 96.6 50.2 51.9 53.9 73.6 86.4 88.5 n.a 49.7 49.4 74.4 85.6 89.8 n.a 4.0 13.9 38.4 52.2 58.3 31.4 28.4 32.1 55.8 77.0 82.2 22.1 39.7 62.2 72.6 82.7 93.8 23.8 39.8 42.7 64.8 74.2 78.0 : ADB, Asian Development Outlook 2001, p. 166 (ODA). 1997 93 69. ODA 40%.. ODA. 1997 69%. 76-77 4%. 10 5 40%. 60,,..,,,,,.
17,,. (3)....,,,,....., IT. 1997. 90. 96 98, 2000. GM..,..
18 < 3-2 > 2000 1996 33.4%, 1998 2000 2000, 3 ( 93%, 96 7 ) 98/99,, 51% 2000 GM GM 2001,, 34%, 10% 2000 2001 1999,, 2000 :, 2001.. 90....
19 2. (1) 1) 1960.. 10) 2000 1,051 31%. NICs 3 2,543, 52.3%. 47.6% 44.1% 1,061 628. 1980 20.7% 2000 31.0%.. NICs 3. 80 297 2000 2,543. 1980-90 NICs 3 1,485 761 51.2% 90-2000 2,980 49.8% 1,485. 4 80-90 19.3%, 90-2000 20.5%. 80-90 191 12.9%. 90-2000 12.5%. 80-90 16.6% 90-2000 17.1%. NICs. 10). IMF IMF..
20 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 1980-1990 1990-2000 < 3-3> ( ) ( :,%) NICs 3 4 293 297 164 64 818 (20.7) (43.3) (42.0) (32.8) (30.5) 299 404 170 211 1,084 (22.9) (46.4) (45.7) (49.6) (36.5) 540 1,058 450 255 2,303 (23.0) (48.6) (46.1) (47.4) (38.1) 1,012 2,438 1,086 573 5,109 (30.1) (53.9) (49.3) (43.4) (44.8) 1,051 2,543 1,061 628 5,283 (31.0) (52.3) (47.6) (44.1) (40.0) 247 (16.6) 511 (17.1) 761 (51.2) 1,485 (49.8) 286 (19.3) 611 (20.5) 191 (12.9) 373 (12.5) 1,485 (100.0) 2,980 (100.0) : NICs 3,,. 4,,, : IMF, DOT 2000 NICs 3 531 11) 4 15 149 367. NICs. 85,.. NICs.. 11) IMF IMF. 2000 166, 386 220.,, 2001, May
21... : IMF < 3-4 > ( : ) 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 NICs - 102-124 -266-606 -531 4 103 82-6 -200 15-8 -86 44 69 149-7 - 128-228 -737-367 2),.. 1999 1 3,936 46.6% 6,496. EU 2 1,800 63.5% NAFTA 54.1%. < 3-5 > (1999) ( :, %) EU NAFTA 13,936 100 21,800 100 10,700 100 6,496 46.6 13,850 63.5 5,790 54.1 7,440 53.4 7,960 36.5 4,910 45.9 : WTO.
22 2000 10 2,292 838, 813. < 3-6 > (2000) ( : ) 65,254 146,577-81,323 27,901 40,300-12,399 24,380 40,514-16,134 16,253 100,063-83,810 17,816 19,186-1,370 14,625 11,452 3,173 10,996 25,568-14,572 8,790 13,937-5,147 6,643 16,389-9,746 2,547 10,385-7,838 195,205 424,371-229,166 : KOTIS.. EU 1980. UR WTO APEC. EU.. 2001, EU,. 12) 2001 31 (EU 1 ) 1 7 6. 21, EU 19, 10. EU 8 12), 2001 WTO, 2001.10.4
23 WTO WTO.. 5., EU 2001. 2001 39 23., EU,, 67% 2000 45%.. < 3-7> 2001 EU 21 19 10 (12) 9 8 6 5 5 4 : WTO Semi-annual report ( ) WTO. (2) 1). NICs NICs... 1960-70 70 80
24. 90.. 1980,. 1990.. 94,,,. 1990, 80,. 80,, 94 240. 1996 17 1100. 96, 900. 13) NPC 95 75, TPI 1 2 100. 2000 300. 1995 2 55. 13). 1996. (Perwaja Steel) 30, 70. 96 6.75 200.
25 97 2000 70. 14). 97 3 5.. 1996 6 160 2000 135. GM 1998 10 7.5.. 2000 100. 2000 40.. 2),. < 3-8> 1996 ( ) 28.8%. 49.9%, 42.7%, 42.6%. 42% 38%.. 1990 1996.,,,. 14),.
26. : WTO, Annual Report 1996.1997 3) IT < 3-8> 1990 1996 24.5 28.8 19.6 22.0 11.4 16.0 17.4 20.5 26.3 31.6 22.4 19.8 45.9 49.9 35.0 42.7 44.1 42.6 27.1 29.3 ( :%) (1996) 10.4 10.8 6.1 4.9 14.4 15.9 15.0 4.6 0.3 7.5 90. IT. IT,.. 90,,,,. < 3-2) IT.,, IT 400. 1 IT 60%. IT IT. 97
27 IT. 2000 IT. < 3-2> IT : World Bank 3. (1) 1) 1990.. (< 3-9> ). 1996 355% 4 236%, 188%. 88, 1988 160% 1996 236%, 282% 355%. 1991 194% 1996 188% 1994 166%.
28 < 3-9> (1996) (mean) (median) (mean) (median) 1.88 1.83 0.54 0.57 2.37 1.92 0.58 0.59 3.55 3.25 0.57 0.59 1.18 0.90 0.64 0.70 1.29 0.93 0.48 0.49 1.05 0.81 0.58 0.59 0.80 0.74 0.59 0.61 2.36 1.85 0.63 0.67 : 5,550. : Stijn Claessens, Simeon Djankov and Larry Lang, p. 9.,, ( / ) (< 3-10> ). 1996 1.07d.. 1. < 3-10> 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 92-96 1.42 1.41 1.89 1.77 1.07 1.51 21.57 3.49 3.68 3.46 4.31 7.30 5.73 4.71 6.30 5.12 4.08 5.19 12.40 14.37 11.70 8.80 8.05 11.06 9.09 9.76 11.73 9.62 6.74 9.39 4.60 4.12 3.83 2.47 1.92 3.39 0.03 0.52 2.18 3.07 2.44 1.65 1.89 2.59 2.93 4.31 3.68 3.08 : Michael Pomerleano, The East Asia Crisis and Corporate Finances: the Untold Micro Stories, p. 14..
29,,,. 2). 1970. 80,,. 90,..,.. 10 1990 1,823 4,953 36.8%.,, 150., 100 50. 95 1,200 500.. 2000 4,224 1,466 1,001 1,000. 400... 1990-95 24.6% 10.1%. 6.6%. 1995-2000 17.0%, 3.5%
30 7.5%. 2000-2005 10%, 3% 2005. 15) < 3-11 > ( :,%) 1990 1993 1995 1997 1999 2000 897 1,073 1,236 1,214 1,314 1,466 152 315 456 626 818 1,001 185 171 242 232 313 403 223 251 290 326 352 405 95 96 103 103 105 115 98 128 186 201 182 192 53 106 175 180 214 256 53 85 114 126 143 164 33 54 74 92 95 104 34 49 70 104 124 139 1,823 (36.8) 2,328 (40.1) 2,944 (39.6) 3,203 (36.8) 3,660 (35.7) 4,224 (34.7) 4,953 5,805 7,435 8,702 10,248 12,169 : 16). 1993 40.1% 95 39.6% 2000 34.7% 5%. 90 (NAFTA). NAFTA. 90. 15). 10%, 3% 2005 1,612, 1,618. 16).
31 (2) 1). 90. < 3-12>. 70 (71-80) 12.4% 80 (81-90) 1.3%. 90 3.2% 96-98 4.8%. 90. 90,,,.,,.. 1980,, LG DRAM 90. 90. 5 DRAM. 96 PC. 16MBDRAM 1993 150 1997 10. 97-98. 80 50% 20%.. 17) < 3-12> (1971-98) ( : %) 17) 98. 1998 IT DRAM 2000.
32 71-80 81-90 91-95 96-98 1995 1996 1997 1998 12.4 1.3 3.2-4.8 7.0 1.4-4.1-11.6 5.9 3.3 4.1 0.2 9.1 10.5-1.9-8.1 11.5 1.3 2.1-1.8 2.7-0.2-1.7-3.5 27.5 1.3 1.2-3.1 6.0 2.0-5.0-6.4 10.8 2.5 0.1-10.2 6.1-6.0-8.0-16.5 15.2-1.5 4.6-5.7 7.0 2.3-8.3-11.1 9.6 1.4 7.2-8.6 11.0 4.0-7.8-22.0 7.8 0.6 3.2-2.4 6.7-0.4 6.3-13.0 11.3 2.6 2.3-5.5 5.9-2.5-2.2-11.9 12.4 0.5 4.4-4.6 8.5 3.4-4.7-12.3 14.5 1.7 1.4-4.3 8.9-1.0-5.8-5.9 : : World Bank, East Asia: Recovery and Beyond, 2000, p. 46. 90 94-95., 94-95 20%. 96,, 5%. 96-97. : ADB < 3-13> (1994-97) 1994 1995 1996 1997 31.9 23.0 1.5 21.0 16.8 30.3 3.7 5.0 9.4 20.0 3.9 4.9 30.4 22.5 5.8-0.0 24.5 25.9 6.0 0.3 22.4 24.8-1.9 3.8 8.8 13.4 9.7 7.3 18.5 29.4 17.8 22.8 ( : %)
33 2) 90..,,, NICs,.. 90. 22%. 90. < 3-14> (2000) ( :%) FDI GDP /GDP 22 8 97 21 25 13 16 9 66 32 37 25 11 4 28 17 18 16 6 7 - - 32-13 13 48 30 27 14 14 7 76 27 18 7 7 11 - - 27 23 16 4 14 16 18 7 : IMF, World Economic Outlook 2001.10, p.21.,.
34.,,. 97. (25%), (37%), (27%). FDI. 3).. 90. 90.. 92 124 94 99 96 116 97 129. 96..,.,,,.
35. 1. (1) 78 90. 97 97-2000 7.9%. 2000 2000 8% 18) 2,492 99 27.9%. 35.8% 99 292 241. 2001 1/4 8.1%. IT,. 2000 12.7 2050 16.. 6,000. 2001 WTO. WTO.. 97 18) 8%. 2000. 2000,, 8%.
36.. GDP 10 % GDP : (2001) < 4-1> 1997 1998 1999 2000 (2) 898 8.8 730 1,399 1,828 1,424 404 946 7.8 762 1,450 1,837 1,402 435 989 7.1 789 1,547 1,949 1,657 292 1,062 8.0 840 1,670 2,492 2,251 241 1) 1980 182 2 350 0.89%. 2,226 8.2% 1,304 14%. 20 2000 2,492 3.92% 31.9%, 52%. 1980. 1980 2000 14.0% 80 13%, 90 19.1% 10.9%. 90. 90 2005 4,180 ( 3,100 ), ( 3,240 ), ( 4,000 ) 4
37. 19) < 4-2> (1980-2000) ( : ) 1980 1990 1995 1998 2000 182 621 1,488 1,836 2,492 2,226 3,936 5,847 6,825 7,824 1,929 4,211 5,230 5,428 5,516 1,304 2,876 4,431 3,879 4,793 1,160 2,166 2,868 3,054 2,981 1,101 1,852 2,420 2,729 2,801 677 1,276 1,922 2,143 2,772 781 1,703 2,340 2,455 2,346 740 1,318 1,969 2,008 2,117 645 1,177 1,710 1,788 1,841 203 824 1,739 1,749 2,024 175 650 1,251 1,323 1,726 20,350 34,420 50,790 54,460 63,580 : WTO 2). 1 2000 2,492 20.9% 521, 2,251 10.0% 224 300. 2.. -.,,,,. 19),, 1995-2000 2005.
38 < 4-3> 10 (, %) 1998 1999 2000 2001. 1,805 1,952 (8.1) 2,492 (27.7) 1,250 (9.1) 376 420 (11.9) 521 (24.1) 251 (6.0) 295 324 (9.8) 416 (28.4) 215 (14.5) 371 369 (-0.6) 445 (20.6) 214 (3.6) 62 78 (25.4) 113 (44.4) 58 (10.0) 73 78 (6.7) 93 (19.2) 45 (1.6) 51 54 (6.1) 67 (23.4) 36 (10.0) 46 49 (6.5) 63 (29.3) 31 (8.7) 38 45 (17.0) 58 (27.8) 28 (3.5) 38 40 (4.5) 50 (27.5) 24 (-1.9) 26 29 (14.9) 38 (29.7) 21 (11.3) : ( ) : ( ). 2000 1001 2.. 20) 1,466 2 90. 90 3.1% 6 18.1%., NICs 3 (,, 20) 2000 445 521 1,000. 115.,.
39 ) 10.1%, 5 5.4%. 95 5 NICs 3 16.6% 8.5%.. 2001 7 8.1% 11.1% NICs 3 6.8%, 5 6.4% < 4-1> :. 2000 415. 224 10%. 255 232 10.3% 11.3%. 4.5% 2.0%.,,.
40 < 4-4> 10 (, %) 1998 1999 2000 2001. 1,404 1,658 2,251 1,165 (18.1) (35.8) (14.0) 283 338 415 210 (19.3) (22.9) (10.1) 167 195 255 126 (17.0) (30.5) (8.6) 170 195 224 125 (14.7) (14.8) (18.0) 150 172 232 115 (14.7) (34.7) (6.9) 70 83 104 63 (19.1) (24.9) (29.8) 67 69 94 45 (3.4) (36.8) (5.9) 36 42 58 36 (16.4) (36.6) (32.6) 27 36 55 36 (34.8) (51.9) (32.6) 42 41 51 25 (-3.9) (24.6) (8.0) 27 36 50 24 (34.0) (39.2) (-1.8) : ( ) : 2). 2001 8 HS 2, (HS 85). 316 18.4%. 1998 266 14.7%. 2,, (HS 84) 98 166 9.2% 2000 268, 10.8% 2001 12.1%.
41 (HS 62) 1998 152, 8.4% 2001 7.3% (HS 61) 6.0% 5%.,.. < 4-5> 10 (, %) 1998 1999 2000 2001.1-8 1, 266 330 461 316 (14.7) (16.9) (18.5) (18.4) 2,, 166 192 268 208 (9.2) (9.8) (10.8) (12.1) 3 152 156 189 125 (8.4) (8.0) (7.6) (7.3) 4 109 118 134 85 ( ) (6.0) (6.0) (5.4) (5.0) 5,, 82 87 99 69 (4.5) (4.4) (4.0) (4.0) 6,, 76 77 92 57 (4.2) (3.9) (3.7) (3.3) 7 51 46 78 57 (2.8) (2.4) (3.1) (3.3) 8,, 42 54 70 48 (2.3) (2.8) (2.8) (2.8) 9 52 52 66 45 (2.9) (2.7) (2.6) (2.6) 10 50 51 64 44 (2.8) (2.6) (2.6) (2.6) 1,805 1,952 2,492 1,714 (100.0) (100.0) (100.0) (100.0) : ( ) : KOTIS( ). 1999 TV( 36%),
42 (50%), (24%) 1.. 40 TV. < 4-6> 1 (99 ) ( :, %) TV 11,787 5,717 2,670 5,736 350 2,000 4,262 1,342 1,338 1,210 210 978 36.2 23.5 50.1 21.1 60.0 48.9 :, Nikkei Business 2000.11.27. (3) 1) 2000 IT 38.4% 255 (231 ) (885 ), (455 ) 3.,,. IT,.. (PC). 2001 3 10 PC (, Legend Group) 30%. IBM, Dell, HP, Acer..
43 < 4-2> 10 (2001.3 ) : The Economist, 2001.9.15, p. 56 IT,.,, 3 5 6%.. < 4-7>, ( ),, IC 1 ( )NEC : 8,000 /, NEC DRAM : 8,000 /, 2, : 1 / IC 3 ( ) DRAM, ASIC DRAM ( ) 1M 200 / /DRAM DRAM : (2001-2002 ),
44 2010 2 92. 2001 30.,,. NEC 2000 300, 2. 2)...,,,,.. < 4-3> : ABN-Amro, Asian Achor, 20001. 3Q2001, p.45
45 M&A,. 1,200 2000 800 3 200. ( ) 30 96 37 150. PetroChina Sinopec. 34,, 3. M&A. 120 6.,. ( ) ( ) ( ), 20%. 3 ( ) ( ), ( ) ( ), ( ) ( ) 3. < 4-8>, - - (41%), (30%), (10%) - 8 -,, 3-10,, 3 : 2001.5.14 33-20% -2005 2000 2 (120 ) 68-3 3,000 - (3 ) - 118~180 -
46 2. (1) 1). 1988-90,, 10. 21) 10 1988-90 1.2% 92-93 2% 95-96. 4% 7%. 10 88-90 1% 95-96 3% 2% 5%. 1% 2% 5%. 22). 20 < 4-3>.. 1980,,, 4 28.8% 1999 16.6%,,, 4 14.1% 18%(85) 99 8.1%.. 4.0% 16.2%. 21) World Bank, East Asia: The Road to Recovery, 1998. p. 23. 22) Ibid., p. 24 figure 2.7
47. 2000 2 5,614 80%. 92 40% 99 60% 91 50% 99 80%. 2000 68.8% 5.2%. 20001 2. < 4-4> : 4,,, 4,,, : GATT WTO, International Trade Ststistics 2) WTO WTO. WTO 2005 6.34% 4.58%. 23) WTO 95 3.70% 4.58% WTO 6.34% 23) Elena Ianchovichina, Will Martin and Emiko Fukase, Assessing the Implications of Merchandise Trade Liberalization in China's Accession to WTO, World Bnk June 23, 2000
48. 95 3.21% WTO 2005 6.14%, 4.75%. WTO. 1995 19.52% WTO 2005 43.95%. 95 4.96% 2005 9.48%.. WTO 7.42% 95 1.85%. < 4-9> ( : %) 1995 2005 2005 1995 8.19 8.34 10.17 13.14 15.83 22.3 19.52 18.23 43.95 0.97 0.97 3.19 2.18 2.50 2.95 2.48 3.19 3.73 2.54 2.81 3.22 3.91 4.60 5.18 3.37 4.85 5.93 4.11 5.08 5.8 0.13 0.45 0.77 1.85 1.72 7.42 4.96 7.68 9.48 3.48 4.92 5.6 5.48 7.87 9.64 3.99 5.54 7 : Elena Ianchovichina(2000) (2) 1). (UNCTAD) 2001. 2000 408, 644, 102
49. 97. 89-94 140,,.,.. 24) < 4-10> FDI ( : ) 89-94 ( ) 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 13,951 35,849 40,180 44,237 43,751 40,319 40,772 1,229 1,559 1,864 2,248 222 2,926 4,928 4,164 6,213 10,460 11,368 14,776 24,591 64,448 869 1,776 2,325 2,844 5,412 10,598 10,186 4,798 8,788 10,372 12,967 6,316 7,197 6,390 3,964 5,816 7,296 6,513 2,700 3,532 5,542 1,927 2,004 2,271 3,627 5,143 3,562 2,448 1,524 4,346 6,194 4,677-356 -2,745-4,550 879 1,459 1,520 1,249 1,752 737 1,489 651 2,336 2,519 2,824 2,254 1,991 2,081 : UNCTAD, World Investment Report 2001. < 4-5> 6. 1994 1996. 97. WTO. 24) UNCTAD, World Investment Report 2001
50.. < 4-5> :. 2000. 2000 39.3%, 6.2%. 1999 36.8% 225 2000 27%. 45% 98 56%. B 136%. (ING ) B- < 4-11> 1998 1999 2000 0.6 82.5-45.3-48.6 32.0 136.3 110.7 94.0-56.0-29.3 98.0-16.3 : IIF, Capital Flows to Emerging Economies External Financing(2001.1.24) ( :%)
51 2).. WTO., IBM, AT&T,,,,,,. 500 400 2000,,,,,.,, GM, GE, JVC, IBM, Intel R&D. 2 650 R&D. R&D. 25).,. UNCTAD 2001 2000 370 18% 81%. 1996 77 39% 59%. 26). 2005 1,000. WTO.. 25) UNCTAD, World Investment Report 2001, Press release, p. 26 26)
52 < 4-12> 1-2002 19, IC - 2000 20, 40-2001 40-5 51 - - 2000 15, 17-5 10, 2001 2-2001 2 2 IBM - 3 NEC - 2 BASF - 2 ( 26, 10 ) - PVS ABS 50-2005 30 Shell - Sinopec CNOOC 17 BP - 25, 15-5 12, 16 12-2000 1 GM - 7,000-5,000-11, 5 1.5 : ABN-Amro, Asian Achor, 20001. 3Q 2001 3. (1) 1). GDP GDP 10 3% 10 8%.
53. < 4-13>. 1990 2000 10. 90 18.6%. 2000 2.. 1990. < 4-13> ( :%) 1990 1995 1997 2000 1990 1995 1997 2000 18.6 13.6 10.8 11.1 0 7.3 10.0 11.8 5.7 6.1 6.1 5.2 24.7 33.3 34.9 35.5 8.7 7.8 7.0 7.5 1.5 2.3 3.2 3.9 15.3 12.5 12.7 13.0 2.1 2.6 2.3 3.1 17.2 16.6 15.2 15.7 1.2 2.9 3.0 4.3 42.5 27.0 23.3 23.2 3.2 3.8 4.1 4.5 19.8 15.8 16.6 14.6 0.8 1.2 1.0 2.5 13.4 26.8 18.2 18.4 0.3 6.6 5.2 4.8 : IMF, DOT( KOTIS ). 2000 3.1%, 2.5% 4%. 90 1.5% 3.9%,,. 95.. 90 42.5% 2000 23.2%,,,.
54. < 4-14> 2005 2010. 5. < 4-14 > ( :, %) 1995 6,846 10,545 10,130 14,199 3,495 1,716 2000 6,857 14,499 10,691 16,253 7,102 2,591 0.03 6.6 1.1 2.7 15.2 8.6 2005 6,867 19,958 11,292 18,569 14,409 3,914 2010 6,877 27,472 11,927 21,215 29,234 5,912 1995 3,398 2,065 1,611 2,053 276 332 2000 5,194 4,842 3,903 3,929 1,517 674 8.9 18.6 19.4 13.9 40.6 15.2 2005 7,955 11,361 9,472 7,532 8,335 1,367 2010 12,184 26,659 22,986 14,439 45,796 2,773 : IMF, DOT 2005. 2005. 2010,,..
55 (2) 1) 1980 1989. 89 85, 111 26 2000 236.... 1990.. TV, VTR 60%, 40%. 1990 12.5%. 2000.. 40%,, VTR 30%.. 90. 96 25 99 7.7 96 5.2% 99 1.1%.. 2000 33%. 180 1.1% 2.5%.
56 < 4-15> ( : %) 1990 2000 1990 2000 1990 2000 1990 2000 0.2 28.9 1.4 5.5 15.6 3.1 48.1 35.1 1.0 19.1 11.4 9.8 3.4 0.6 10.5 46.9 0.1 32.7 10.2 26.0 3.1 0.3 11.5 30.2 5.0 44.1 13.0 0.4 15.8 4.6 12.2 31.1 12.5 42.9 23.5 3.4 9.2 3.2 37.9 43.9 TV 1.4 24.0 56.4 3.0 23.4 3.2 11.6 66.6 VTR 0.0 25.9 71.1 7.6 0.0 0.8 0.5 63.4 EDP 0.2 6.4 0.8 10.6 2.6 20.5 11.2 31.7 EDP 0.2 15.6 6.8 6.5 3.6 21.8 11.7 22.9 IC 0.0 2.0 8.7 14.9 4.3 17.4 5.1 28.0 0.7 10.8 24.7 10.2 20.5 10.2 22.2 37.2 : 10, EDP,, : JRI Asia Monthly, 2001 4 1, p. 3 < 4-16> ( :,%) 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 25.1 19.9 10.7 7.5 10.0-44 -21-46 -30 33 480.2 539.7 407.5 666.9 486.1 5.2 3.7 2.6 1.1 2.5 : JETRO. 99,, NEC.,..
57 < 4-17> 1999 TV,,,, CD, DVD,, : Nikkei Business 2000.11.27. 2). 2001 26.. 1990. 90. 1996. 2000 100 500. 90 26.9% 8.4%.. 5 IT 1/3. 27) 1999 IT ( ) 52.7% 33.2% 27) Singapore, MTI, Convergence of cross- straits economic interests and implications for Singapore. MTI 2/4
58 (95%), (86%),, CD/DVD, (60%), (45%), (45%). 2000 IT 60%. < 4-6> ( : ) : < 4-18> ( : %) : Singapore, MTI, Convergence of cross-straits economic interests and implications for Singapore. MTI 2/4
59 2001 8.. 5,000.. 2000 644. UNCTAD.. 3) 70. 1,,,. 90... 2000 6 191, 219 98 102 125. 100,, 70.. 98.,,
60... 99-2000 80% 2000 162%.. < 4-19> ( :,%) 1998 1999 2000 2001 3,849 4,503(17.0) 5,755(27.8) 2,841(3.5) 4,226 4,062(-3.9) 5,060(24.6) 2,527(8.0) -377 441 695 314 1,584 1,675(5.7) 2,565(53.1) 1,283(21.0) 2,675 3,607(34.8) 5,480(51.9) 2,813(20.5) - 1,091-1,932-2915 - 1,530 1,132 1,437(26.9) 2,244(56.2) 1,219(10.8) 2,423 2,782(14.8) 4,380(57.5) 2,292(18.4) - 1,291-1,345-2,136-1,073 1,168 1,779(52.3) 3,061(72.0) 1,391(-6.1) 2,462 3,051(23.9) 4,402(44.3) 2,022(-0.8) - 1,294-1,272-1,341-631 1,492 1,380(-7.5) 1,464(6.1) 726(4.5) 517 908(75.5) 1,677(84.8) 931(29.4) 975 472-213 -205 927 964(6.8) 1,537(59.5) 820(35.5) 217 354(63.0) 929(162.2) 579(96.9) 710 610 608 241 1,0152 11,738 19,121 8,280 12,520 14,764 21,928 11,164-2,368-3,026-2,807-2,884 : 2000 10.7 7.2,.,,,
61 (Intra-industry). (3) 1)..,,.,, ( ),. 1990. 90......
62 10...,.... WTO. 99 16.8% 2005 9.4%... 2005.. 1990, +3.. 2).. 2000 GDP 1,,,,, 7. 2000 1 GDP 840, 4,700,.
63. (FTAA) 2005 EU. 1990 NAFTA FTAA........,,.. 2000 (65 ) 23.1% 2025, 20%...,..,,... 1960 2. 90.
64... < 4-20> ( :, %) 2000 2025 2000 2025 126898 121150 23.1 32.9 47275 52533 10.6 22.3 212107 23171 75967 4146 62320 79832 272442 30968 108251 4168 72717 108037 7.5 6.6 5.7 10.5 8.7 7.4 12.9 13.7 10.9 28.4 18.1 12.3 1277558 1480412 10.1 19.5 : UN( ). 1990 APEC.. (AMF)..,.,
65. 1. (1) 21 10.,.......,.,,... 2000 2 11% 24%. 28). 28) 2000 ( ) 42.2 313.5
66 WTO 2. (2). NICs. NICs,,. NICs.., NICs. 29)......... 2000 255 17%. 166 1,483 11.2%. 29). 2000 100.
67 (3)..,....,.. EU,,,.. WTO 2005.. 2, 1990...
68 2. (1)., EU, 3 4.,.,...,....,... 1960.,,.... 60 GATT
69 WTO.. (FTA).....,..,. (2) 1.. 2000 2 372 21.6%. 1991 10%...... - -. 1.
70. (value chain),. IT. < 5-1>.....,, IT.. R&D., R&D.