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2030 세대와참여정치거버넌스 2005. 2

2030. 2005. 2 : :

1 9 1 13 1 13 2 14 3 16 1. 17 2. 17 3. 18 4. 19 5. 19 2 20 1 20 2, 26 3 2030 31 3 2030 36 1 2030 36 2 2030 42 4 2030 48 1 48 2 53 3 (

2 ) 60 4 66 5 70 5 2030 74 1 74 1. 74 2. 81 2 2030 83 1. : 2030 83 2. 25 : 2030 85 3 2030 87 1. 2030 87 2. 89 3. 91 4 94 5. 96 4 2030 101 1. : 101 2. 2030 : 104 6 : 17 2030 117 1 117 1. 117

3 2. 122 3 128 2 131 1. 131 2. 135 3. 137 4. 139 7 : 2030 143 1 143 2 146 148 154

4 2 1 25 3 1,, / 38 3 2 44 4 1 386 2030 (Han, 2002) 71 5 1 75 5 2 3 (OECD, 2001: 20) 76 5 3 80 5 4 101 6 1 (17 ) 118 6 2 119 6 3 120 6 4 120 6 5 122 6 6 123 6 7 124 6 8 124 6 9 1 125 6 10 16 126 6 11 128 6 12 129 6 13 133 6 14 136

5 6 15 138 6 16 138 6 17 139 6 18 140 6 19 141

6 3 1 37 3 2 2030 45 4 1 (Norris, 2003) 52 4 2 56 4 3 2004 58 4 4 (, 2003) 61 4 5 63 4 6 64 4 7 67 4 8 P (2030 ) 4 73 5 1 77 5 2 78 5 3 79 5 4 85 5 5 25 86 5 6 2030 87 5 7 90 5 8 92 5 9 96 5 10 97 5 11 104 5 12 112

7 5 13 114 5 14 2030 116 6 1 : 9 127

9 1. 2002 2004 IT 2030. 2002,,,, 2004 17 2030 IT (smart mob),.,, 2030 IT. 2030. 2.., 2030

10, 2030 2002 2004. 2030, 2030., 2030,, (online activism). 2030,..,.., 2030, TV

11.,., 2030 IT,,,.,, 2030 IT,. 3.., 2002 2004 2030 IT., IT., IT 2030,,

12., IT 2030,.

1 13 1 1 2002 2004. 2002 ( ), ( ),,, 3 6, 16, 2004, 17.. 2002,,, 2004 2030. 80 386 2030. 90 X

14, 2000 N 2030 P. P (participation) (passion) (paradigm shift). 386, X, N (, 2003). ( ), 2030 PC IT. IT 2030. 2 IT. IT. IT

1 15., IT. : IT 2030???,? 2030 IT?,? 2030? IT 2030? 2002 2004.,, IT. 2002, 2002, 2004 (public sphere). 2030,

16, 2030. 2030, IT. 2030,.,,. 3,,,,., ( 2030 ),, 1 (,, ),, IT 2030 2030,

1 17, IT. 1. 2030,,, (e-governance),,,,,,. (multidisciplinary approach) IT. 2. (Norris, 2003) IT. (global advocacy network),,,, (informal mode of belonging),, (identity politics).,,..

18 (life-style politics), (political consummerism)., (Bimber, 2003).,, (online youth civic websites),,,,,,. 3. 2030 IT 20 30. 8. (http://www.ohmynews.com), (http://www.seoprise.com), (http://www.dcinside.com),,,, 20 30..,,. 2030 IT.

1 19 4. 2030 23 1,500 20.,.. 5. ( 2030 ),.

20 2 1., ( 1994, 1999; 2002; 2002; 2002, 2003; 2003; 2003). ( 2002; 2004). (1994).,,,,. ( ), ( )., 1970

2 21 1970 (, 1999). 1970 1960 2030. ( 2002. 2003; 2003; 2003). (2002) 2002.,.,. 2030., (2002) ( ),,, ( ).. (2002),,

22,,., 2030.. (, 1999). 1980. (1994) 1950 ( ), 1950 1961, 1962, (, 1994: 260). 1) 1970 2) 1) 14 3%,. 2),

2 23. 3).,. (2002),,,,,. (2002) (, 1994;, 1999), 20 30. 30 1960 1970 1987., (, 1999: 119). 3) 1970, 1970. ( ). 2030.

24,, 20 1970, (, 2002: 58).,,. (, 2002: 75). (2002). ( ). (, 2002: 90).... 2 1 80% 30

2 25, 2030. 2 1 (%) 20 1,196 2.67% 21 24 3,882 8.53% 25 29 9,109 19.94% 30 34 12,689 27.95% 35 39 9,380 20.40% 40 49 8,157 17.58% 50 1,319 2.93% 45,486 100.0% : 2002 5 20 (, 2002: 92) 30 48.4%, 30. (2002). (2002) 30,,,,, NGO,, 30. 30 386. (2003), ( ) (post-materialist

26 value system).,,,,,.,. 2, (SES) (Verba & Nie, 1972; Nagel, 1987; Lijphart, 1997). (SES) (participatory inequality) (Verba et al., 1995). ( civic skills), (Krueger, 2002).?.,.,,.

2 27. (reinforcement theory) (Anderson er al., 1995; Bimber, 2000; NTIA, 2000). (Davis & Owen, 1998; Bucy, 2000). (Norris, 1999; Solop, 2000)... 87% 31%, (generational displacement).,, ( ) (Krueger, 2002).,.., (Cole, 1997). (Heath and Taylor, 1999),

28 (Henn, Weinstein and Wring, 2000). (Soule, 2001). 2002 2004,,, 17. P ( ) R ( ), W ( ) 2030 80 386. 2030, 2,,,. 2030. 2002,, 2004 17.

2 29.. IT... 4),..,,...,.,,,,,..,,,,,.,, 4),. 2002.,,,.

30.,, 2030 N ( ). 2030 386.. 2030 2002 16 2004 17.. N 2030. (Shah et al., 2001a) X,,,,, X.

2 31. (Shah et al., 2001b) (X,,,, ),, (, 2004: 125)..,..,.,.. 3 2030 TV. TV 3 (, 2003). 2030. 2002

32 2030. TV. TV.,., TV. 5) 2000 16 8.7% (, 2000), 2004 17 54% (, 2004: 131)., (2000) 2000. (Flanagin & Metzger, 2000), 5) 1986 71.6% 2002 46.5% (, 2002), 4 90 50% 2001, 2002 41.1% (, 2003)..

2 33,... (Lin, 1999), (Kang and Atkin, 1999), (Althaus and Tewksbury, 2000) (2004).,,.. TV.,, (poll).

34 (, 2004: 269).. (goal-driven habit) (Len- Rios & Bentley, 2001). TV, /. TV (, 2001)..,., (, 2004: 443). 6) TV 6),.,. (scrap journalism)

2 35.. (Bimber, 2001; Tolbert and McNeal, 2003)..,.,,.,.,,,.

36 3 2030 3 2030,. 1 2030, X, R, W. 2002 P 2030. (participation) (passion) (power) (paradigm-shifter) P, 386, X, N,. 7) P ( ). 386 7) P 2003 6 2003 2 3 5 17 39 1,600 (, 2003).

3 2030 37. 3 1 연령 세대특징, 6.25, 4.19, 5.16,,,,, 6, IMF, /,. 1940 1960 4.19 5.16. 1950.,. 1985. ( 386 ) 1980.

38 1987. 1..,. N.,. (, 2003: 5-7;, 2004: 19). 3 1,, / ( ) 2002 ( ) (1918 1925) 85 77 (1936 1944 ) (1926 1933 ) 76 69 (1945 1952 ) (1934 1939 ) 68 63 (1953 1958 ) (1940 1949 ) 62 53 (1959 1968 ) / ( ) 5 4.19 5.16

3 2030 39 ( ) 2002 ( ) (1950 1958 ) 52 44 (1969 1977 ) / (1959 1970 ) 43 32 (1978 1989 ) (1971 1977 ) 31 25 (1990 1996 ) (1978 1982 ) 24 20 (1997 2004 ) : (2004: 20) / 12.12 5.18 6.10 (1 ) ( ) (, ) OECD IMF 88 / / 2030 2002,, 20 30,,, ( ) (, 2002: 14). N (, 1998),,,. 8) 8) N 10 (, 1998: 125 141):

40 N 2002, 2002 (, 2003). 2002 2030 20 30. 5,60,,.,,, (, 2003: 22). N 2002. N W R P. W R 15 25 2002,.,,...............

3 2030 41,. (self-motivated Community), (Dynamic Energy), (Open Mind). W R,, P (, 2004). 2030 20 30. 20 30 1 2 (new). 2030 386(3040). 2030 30 1987 6 386. 1960 80 30 386 20 87, 1980. 386 (, 2004). 80 386 2030 2002. 9) 9) 2030 1318, 1020

42 2 2030 2030 1/3, 1/2. 2030 386 N (1020 ). 2030 N N 386,. N 80 90 386. 386 N 2030. N,. 2030. 2030 386 N 10.,,,,,, IT 10. 2030 20 30 10 20 1020, 2030 386 (, 2004 10 6 ).

3 2030 43. 386 N 2030 (passion). N. N. 2002, (, 2004). (, 2003). 2030 386 N, 2030. P 2030, 3 2 2030. (2003) 2030.,,. 2030,, (alternative culture). 2030,,

44,, (revolt), (rejection), (resistance) 2030 (, 2003: 99-100). 2030. 3 2 / 20 30 30 40 40 50 50 60 25 4 4 3 16 52 48.1 7.7 7.7 5.8 30.8 100.0 21 13 9 10 10 63 33.3 20.6 14.3 15.9 15.9 100.0 12 8 11 7 10 48 25.0 16.7 22.9 14.6 20.8 100.0 8 9 2 2 13 34 23.5 26.5 5.9 5.9 38.2 100.0 66 34 26 22 49 197 33.5 17.3 13.2 11.2 24.9 100.0 : (2004). 2 =25.754, df=12, p 0.05 2030.. 2030. 2030

3 2030 45,,,,, ( ),. TV,,,, 2002 (, 2003: 19). 3 2 2030 (Participation)? (Competition)? (Private Interest)? (Freedom) (Fairness) (Equality) : (2003: 107) Cultural Shift 2030,. (, 2003). (digital nomad), PDA,.

46 IT,,, (Ubi-Nomad), 2030. 2030. (social network). 2030 (2003)...,. 2002 5060. (, 2003: 31 32) 2030 386 N (, 2002 12 25 ), 2030. 2002 2030. 2030...,.

3 2030 47. 2030 2030.

48 4 2030 4 2030, IT. 2004 17 2030. 1,, (public index),. N 2030 (participation gap),. 2030, 4050 5060., (Putnam, 2000).

4 2030 49, (Norris, 2002; Micheletti, 2002).,..,.. 2003 7 99 (KSDC), 2030,, 2030 4050, (, 2003 7 18 ). 20 30 2002,,, 2004 17. 17 2030. S (35 ).

50. 16, 2004 17, (S,, 35 ). P (27 ) 17 2030. 2030 17. 2030.,,,,.,, (P,, 27 ).,, 2030 IT (electronic public sphere),.,? 17

4 2030 51 (2004)..,,,, 500., 80 90, 70 80. 20 30 (, 2004: 71 72). (Norris, 2003) (global advocacy network),,,,, (informal mode of belonging), (identity politics).,,. 10,,, (repertoire) (agency)

52. (generational shift),. (politics of loyalty) (politics of choice) (Norris, 2003). 4 1 (Norris, 2003) ), ), Agencies ),, ), 2030 4050 2030.. (Barber, 1984).

4 2030 53,. (Ladd, 1999: 403). 10 20 (28%) (25%) (Montgomery et al., 2004). 2, (Putnam, 2000)., (Norris, 2002; Micheletti, 2002).,..,.. IT,

54. (, 2002;, 2002;, 2002, 2004). ( ).. (Wellman et al. 2001; LaRose, Eastin & Gregg, 2001; Kraut et al., 2002). (Kavanaugh et al., 2001; Quan-Haase & Wellman, 2002). (Norris, 2001). (Pew Research Center, 2001).,. (Pew Rearch Center, 2001)..

4 2030 55, PDA,, (networked individualism) (Micheletti, 2002). 10)..,........,,,,. (Wellman, 2001: 227).. (flash mob: 10),..

56 ),. 70 80,. 2004 2 100 20. 2004 17 20 20.. 4 2 (http://cafe.daum.net/flashmob)

4 2030 57,. 3 12 ( ), [ ],. 11) 17. K (33 )..,,...,,,, (K,, 33 ). 11). (http://www.liveis.com).

58 4 3 2004.. (IM, SMS ) ( ),, ( ),, P2P,,,,.

4 2030 59. 12) J (32 ).,,, (Social Networking).,,, (J,, 32 ). (2004),.,. (weak tie) (, 2004: 107). 12) MSN(http://www.msn.co.kr) ( ) MSN (http://hompy.msnplus.co.kr).

60 3 ( ),,,,,,,,. IT,.,....,...

4 2030 61..,, -,,,. 4 4 (, 2003) (, CMC,, ) (, CMC,, ) (, CMC,, ) (Netizen) (interactivity) (online public sphere):, (citizen) (face-to-face) (interaction),.

62. (http://www.meetup.com/).. 1,451,141 174,896 4990. 2004 (Dean Phenomena). 20 30 (Howard Dean).. 2004 (1 19 ), (1 27 ), 6 2. 2004 1 1,440 2 2,000 50. 2003 427 1 1,000

4 2030 63. 70 50 100 4,000. 2004 5 8, 43.87%. 4 5 2030. (flashcrowd: ) (smartmob: )

64. 2004. 40 2004 2 13.. ( 6 ) 48,.,., 4 6

4 2030 65.. 17. (online activism). (, ).. (hybridization) (, 2004)..,.

66 4 ( ),,,,. 17 2030,.,. 17! KBS. KBS 12.,.. 2004 (http://www.mediamob.co.kr/).

4 2030 67 4 7 : (http://www.action.or.kr/) 2030, (, 2004;, 2003;, 2004). (, 2003: 65, 70). (play) (, 2004).. N (29 ).

68.,.. (N,, 29 ). 1 (2004)..,. (ritual) (, 2004: 53). 2030 (noise). 2030,,,,.,. 2030.

4 2030 69 (2003).,.,,.,,,.,,. N (, 2003: 76-77)..,,. (spontaneous) (uninformed), (unreflective),. (, 2003: 78-79). 2030.,. MSN ( ) ( ), (SOFA) 2003 12 1.,

70.,. 5. 10 30. 2030 ( 386) 386 386 2030,.. 2002 80 386, 2030. 386 2030. 386 2030. (2003) 2030 386.

4 2030 71 4 1 386 2030 (Han, 2002) 2030 ( ) 386 N R 40 20 30 10 20,,,,, 386 2030. 2030 386, 386.,, 386. 2030. (2003) ( 386 5060 ) 2030. 2030 5060, 1996 2003 2030 5060 5060.

72... (2003)..,..,. (, 2003). 2030 386 2030 20 30.. 20 30 2030 5060.. 20 30 20 20, 20.

4 2030 73 4 8 P (2030 ) 4 25 34 /, / 20 /, / 30 /, / TV 17 24 /, / : (2003)

74 5 2030 5 2030, IT. 2030 (civic identities)? IT (democratic net)?. 1 1. (citizen participation) ( ) (engagement).,,,, (informed).

5 2030 75. (online citizen participation), ( ).,.. 5 1 / / / / OECD 2001 (e-information), (econsultation), (e-decision-making or online engagement). (Coleman et al., 2003) (voice), 5 1.

76 5 2 3 (OECD, 2001: 20) e-information e-consultation e-decision making,,,,. (,,, ) S/W,,..,, Firtst- Gov (http://www. first.gov) Direct- Gov (http://www. direct.gov.uk) E-Citizen (http://www. ecitizen.gov.sg),,.,.

5 2030 77.,,. 5 1 / ( ) : (Coleman, Stephen & Gotze, 2003: 23) http://ukonline.gov.uk (Citizen Space). 13) 13) (http://www.consultations.gov.uk/).

78. BBC,.,,.,. 5 2..

5 2030 79. NGO,. (http://e-consultant.org.uk),. 5 3,,,,,

80. /,, 14) 5 3 ). ( 5 3 (Citizens Dialogue) E-Consultation Van Boxtel Issue Talk 2001, 1996... 1999. 2001 http://issuetalk. (Jessie Ventura) state.mn.us. 14), 1) :,. 2) : 7. 3) :.. 4) :..

5 2030 81 (CCN: Cambridge Civic Network) (Blacksburg) 2001 Hansard Society E-Democracy Programme Commbill.net(http:// www.commbill.net),.,,,, http://www.civic.net/ cambridge_civic_net work. (BEV),. 2003 4 Ask the White House, 1, http://www.bev.net.,. 2. (Government hosted web forum) (Non Government hosted web forum), (Citizen to Citizen) (Government host). (Government to Citizen) (e-consultation), (Q and A), (Document/Policy Comments), (Online Guests/Panel), (Live Chat Events), (Online polls and Surveys)

82. e-mail.,,.,. (Government to Citizen). (civic forum)..,..,. ' '.

5 2030 83, (moderation) (mediation).., The Well, Electronic Minds, Salon Table Talk (Social Host).,..,..,. 2 2030 1. : 2030 (http://www.youngscot.org/) 12 26

84,,. 2002 5 16 (Jack Mc- Connel). 20.,.,,,,, (Dialogue Youth Unit),,. EURO 26..

5 2030 85. 5 4 2. 25 : 2030 (http://www.canada25.com/index.html) 25 20 35 NGO. 25,,. 25. 25

86,,. 25,. 15) 5 5 25 25 2000 6 2 1,000,. 25 (learning organization),,,,,. 16) 15) 25.. 16) 25

5 2030 87 3 2030 2030,. 2030,,,,. 1. 2030 (http://www.votefestival.org/main/main.asp) 5 6 2030. 25.

88 2030 2002 16.,,. 17), 12 14 12 19 6,, 12.19 1219. e-card, e-,,,,,,, PC 17) 2030 20, 80.8%. 80.8%. 97 80.7% 20 68.2%, 0.1% 80.8% 23.2% 20.

5 2030 89. 1219 12 19 1219.. 2. (http://www.nosamo.org),. 2000 5, 2001 12. 2000 (John McCaine) 1998 (Jessie Ventura) (Jessie-Net). (2004) 30 20 4 1 20 30, 2030 4 3. 2030. 80 386 20. 50,

90. 2030,,.,, (, 2004). 5 7 2002. (, 2004). 2002

5 2030 91. 1980 386 2030. (, 2003).. 3. (http://univoters.cyworld.com) 2002 16. Univoters ( ) ( ).,.. 1.,. 2.,

92. 3. (, 2002). 20. 20. 2002,,, (UNIVOTERS, 2002.10.28).. Univoters 2030 W P. 5 8

5 2030 93 UNIVOTERS UNIV VOTERS.,! 1,,,,,,, (, ).,,,,, (, ),,. (,. TV.,, Go Away!, 5. ) 20. 2002.,.,. 19..

94 2004 17 2000 2004, 2004 ( ). 10. 4. 2002.. (, 2004). (http://www.independent.co.kr), (http://www.systemclub.co.kr)., 2030, 20. 2003 20

5 2030 95 28.4% 30 (, 2003. 12. 26 ). 20,. 20. 18) 2030. 2030.. 2030. (http://user.chollian.net/ duredori) 18) 2004 4. 20 37.1%, 30 (23.9%) 40 (45.7%) 50 (47.7%). 20 60 (20 60.8%, 30 41.2%, 40 45.6%, 50 43.4%, 60 56.5%),,. 20, 20 (20 63.8%, 30 55.6%, 40 47.3%, 50 55.2%, 60 56.5%).

96 2030 2030 (http://kr.club.yahoo.com/2030network). DJ 2001 8 17.,. 5 9 5. (http://youngvillage.cyworld.com) (http://www.peoplepower21.org/) 20 30

5 2030 97 2030. 20 30 2004 7 10 1.65%, 20 48.9%, 30 43.96%, 40 5.49%...,,. 5 10 2, 4 8,. 5,,

98 ( ),,,., 1.,. 2030,,,.,. 20 30 2030 2002 20 47.5%. 2030 20 80.8% 1997 20 68%,. 20 19) 19), 20. 2002 20 (62.1%) 30 (59.3%) 20. 20 20, 97

5 2030 99., 2030,.. ( ) (, 2003).,. (2000) (group thinking), (pluralistic ignorance).. (, 2000: 202). (2002). (group polarization)..

100..,., (, 2002: 117)., 2030,,...,. 2030.,. 2030. 2030 (, 2003)., 2030 ( ),. 17 2030.

5 2030 101 4 2030 1. : (government) (governance)..,..,,. 5 4,,. 5 4, 1:1,,,, : (2004) ( ),,,

102,,,..... 4. (push-driven). 2000,,, (pull-driven). 2000 16 ( ), 2002, 2004,.

5 2030 103. /,,,,, /., IT. /. /. / (missing link)...?. (syndication).,, (infomediary),,,,..

104,,.. 5 11 / / / Area / / 100 PRM PS MS MRM Financing 1% Party Person ( ) Member ( ) Human Resource, 2004: 92 2. 2030 : IT.

5 2030 105 IT??. (voice),. (2030 ).... IT.. (O Donnell, 2002).,,..

106 IT.. 1980.. IT (social network). (offline based social capital) 386 1980 2000. 2030. 2000. ( ) 386.,,,,,.. 386... 386,

5 2030 107. / 2030 2002.. 2030, 2002,. 2..,. 10 20. 20., 386.,.

108.. 386 2030. 386 2002 2030. 2930 (a last minute digital get-out-the-vote campaign) (Osten & Verclas, 2004). 2930.,. IT. 1980. (Diani, 2001). 386 2030 2.. 2030 386.

5 2030 109, 2030... ( ), (political capital).. (Harwood & Lay, 2001).,,. (Cohen, 1999: 40).,

110. (Ladd, 1999: 403). 20) (Fuchs et al., 1999), (political capital)...,, (citizenship) (political membership), (Fuchs et al., 1999).. 20) (Newton, 1999: 9).,..

5 2030 111. (2000),,, (civic skills) (civic virtue), (citizenship). (, 2000: 13).,. (, 1999: 144). 21) (2002a, 2002b) (cyber-citizen) (cyber-citizenship). 22) 21) 1), 2), 3), 4), 5) (, 1999: 154-155).. 22).,.

112 (citizenship) (, 2002: 119)., (Kymlicka, 1998: 362). 5 12 지식 ( 정보 ) 정치적권리와역할정치구조와과정사회적현안 / 쟁점 사이버시민성 태도 자기이해관용사회적기본가치존중 기능 정보자주성판단능력커뮤니케이션능력정치참여능력, 2002: 139 (1999) (2002), ( ),. 23)., (, 2002: 4). 23)

5 2030 113 (well-informed citizen),. (, 2002: 74-75). (digital citizenship),.,,. ( ). ( ). (mores). (Democracy means paying attention) (Bellah et al., 1991: 254)., (a formative politics). (, 2002: 137).

114,.. (, 2002: 21). (Paige, 1971).. (, 1998;, 2002).., 5 13 정치정보 정치적 / 공적관심정치적정보의습득 / 이용 ex) 펌질 온라인정치자본 정치효능감 여론형성기대감정치참여자신감 정치토론 시민간정치토론및대화 ex) 게시판리플, 메신저 / 채팅등

5 2030 115, (, 2002).... 2030. 2030 2030. IT (civic web), 2030. 2030,.,,. 2030

116. (, ) 2030. 2030 (youth civic web),. 5 14 2030 개인주의화된네트워크 ( 휴대폰등 ) IM(instant messaging) SMS(short Messaging services) P2P network Blog(Web-logs) 사이버공동체 ( 동호회 ) 게시판웹진, 인터넷미디어 집단화된네트워크 ( 온라인커뮤니티 ) Youth Civic Web Civic literacy 정치적지식 ( 정보 ) 의습득 / 공유 Civic skills 정치적담론의자발적생산 Civic attachment 감성적교류와연대 온라인공론장의형성 Online Activism ( 사이버시위, 촛불시위등 ) 온라인정당활동 ( 정당가입및선거운동등 ) 전자정부정책참여 ( 온라인시민패널등 ) 오프라인선거참여 ( 투표등 ) social capital political capital political participation

6 : 17 2030 117 6 : 17 2030 (case study). 2030. (individual level). (ecological fallacy). 2030. 20 30 2030 20 30. 20. 1 1. 2030, 20 30.

118. (bias). 2004 4. 1,500. 17. 40 20 30. (Flanigan and Zingale 1994; Verba and Nie 1972). 2000 16 20 40 30%. 24) 17 (,, 2004). 6 1 (17 ) ( : %) 20 62.1 37.3 0.6 343 30 77.0 22.5 0.5 369 40 85.9 12.8 1.3 788 78.3 20.8 0.9 1500 24)....

6 : 17 2030 119 30 40 6%. 2000 16% 2004 30.. 40 22.3% 30 22.2%. 20 30.. 6 2 ( : %) 20 14.3 84.8 0.9 343 30 22.2 77.8 369 40 22.3 76.9 0.8 788 20.5 78.9 0.6 1500 20 30, 40 20%. 20 30. 2030.

120 6 3 ( : %) 20 22.0 7.5 62.0 1.0 7.5 200 30 24.8 4.7 62.0 1.1 7.3 274 40 45.5 7.7 41.1 2.8 2.8 633 36.1 7.0 50.0 2.1 4.8 1107. 20 20 77.7%, 30 81.4% 40 83%. 20. 6 4 ( : %) 20 10.7 67.0 19.8 2.5 197 30 6.1 75.3 17.5 1.1 263 40 12.1 70.9 16.9 0.2 639 10.4 71.2 17.6 0.8 1099. ( ).. 2030

6 : 17 2030 121.. (negative voting). 2030. 1 2.... 2030. 40 2030.. 2030 94% 40 40 93.5%.. 25),. 90%. 25).

122 20 89.7%, 30 88.7% 40 89.2%... 2030. 2030. 6 5 86.1 13.9 36 66.7 33.3 12 20 3.8 1.9 94.3 106 50.0 50.0 2 22.4 6.4 70.5 0.6 156 82.3 3.2 12.9 1.6 62 72.7 27.3 11 30 3.4 2.0 94.6 147 100.0 3 25.1 5.8 68.6 0.4 223 93.5 1.1 4.6 0.8 263 4.3 72.3 23.4 47 40 6.1 3.5 90.0 0.4 229 25.0 18.8 56.3 16 47.9 8.1 41.8 2.2 555 2. 2030

6 : 17 2030 123..... ( ) 23% 65% 12%. 30 ( ) 25%.. 6 6 20 2.4 18.5 64.8 14.3 335 30 1.4 23.5 63.6 11.5 357 40 1.9 21.1 65.9 11.0 743 1.9 21.1 65.1 11.9 1435. 90.5%.. (consensus),.... 23%

124. 65% 12%.. 6 7 20 15.8 74.5 7.9 1.8 330 30 18.6 72.3 8.8 0.3 354 40 16.9 73.4 8.6 1.1 722 17.1 73.4 8.5 1.1 1406 80.4% 20, 30 75.8% 40 75.6%. 20... 6 8 20 1.2 18.4 68.7 11.7 326 30 0.8 23.3 61.5 14.3 356 40 2.8 21.6 62.8 12.8 744 2.0 21.3 63.8 12.9 1426

6 : 17 2030 125.,. 40 20 30 2, 2030 40 8 10%. 40. 2030 1. 6 9 1 20 0.3 31.5 59.8 8.4 311 30 2.6 30.9 57.6 8.8 340 40 1.2 22.1 58.8 17.8 724 1.4 26.4 58.8 13.5 1375. 40 27.2% 30 20.9% 20 23.3%. 20 40., 2030 40.

126 2030 40.. 2030 40.. 6 10 16 ( : %) 20 1.9 23.3 56.7 18.1 270 30 1.2 20.9 52.6 25.2 325 40 2.1 27.2 49.9 20.8 716 1.8 24.9 51.9 21.4 1311 6 1.. 90,,.,,..

6 : 17 2030 127.... 6 1 : 9 100.0 80.0 아일랜드 뉴질랜드 informal 60.0 40.0 헝가리 프랑스독일포르투갈폴란드 20.0 불가리아 한국 0.0 0.0 20.0 40.0 60.0 80.0 100.0 formal : (2004).. 41.5%, 50% 90%

128. 2030. 3. (political efficacy).,.,.. 6 11 ( : %) 20 4.5 49.7 37.0 8.7 332 30 7.9 58.9 29.0 4.2 355 40 12.8 62.2 20.8 4.2 735 9.6 58.4 26.7 5.3 1422 :. 40 75% 20 54.2%, 30 66.8% 40. ( 2004).. 2030

6 : 17 2030 129.. 40 20% 20 26% 2030. 2030 40. 20 TV 57.4% 30 65% 40 66.4%. 40 15%. 20 30 1/3. TV 2030 40. 6 12 TV 20 23.1 34.3 13.3 31.4 338 30 18.4 46.6 14.0 24.6 365 40 15.0 51.4 5.9 9.7 775 17.7 46.3 9.7 18.5 1478

130 2030. 20 70% 30 40%, 40 13%. 1 20 90%.. 20 71%, 30 44% 40 14%. 57%. 20.. 2030, 40. 2030 40 30.. 20 30 3, 40.

6 : 17 2030 131 2030.. 2030. 2 1. 2030. 2030,..... 2004 6 23 1,500

132. 26)........... 1,500 1,300 98% (KRNIC) 6 1., 26) 13, 5, 5.

6 : 17 2030 133... 90%. 2 3 77.6%.,.. 6 13 10 4, (Bolg) 20% 60%.. 6 13, 607 40.4,, 428 28.5 158 10.5, 286 19.0 / 25 1.7 1504 100.0.

134,... 45.4%. 45%...,. 1/3 37% 2. 20.2%. 55%.. 2002, 16,, 2004

6 : 17 2030 135,,..,, (, 2003;, 2004). 2.. TV... TV. 6 14., 55.3% 5 24.3%. TV. TV.

136 TV (2004a). 6 14 ( : %) 4 5 55.3 37.7 7.0 114 43.7 45.9 10.4 567 35.6 54.3 10.1 604 24.3 50.9 24.8 214 38.6 49.4 12.1 1499. (Jones, 1995; Alexander and Pal, 1998; Hill and Hughes, 1998; Hague and Loader, 1999).. 16 16. 16 16 (, 2000;, 2003). 17. 17 20

6 : 17 2030 137. 27) (, 2002;, 2004). 3. (internet user level)..,, (, ). 3,.. 1/4 24.4% 46%. 3 30%. 27) 17, 60.6% 20 44.7%.

138 6 15 326 24.4 24.4 613 46.0 70.4 395 29.6 100.0 1,334 100.0. 1/3.. TV 1/3 TV. 78% 45%, 24%.. 6 16 ( : %) TV 55.5 39.9 4.6 51.8 39.6 8.6 326 33.1 61.0 5.9 35.8 53.7 10.5 611 28.4 61.2 10.4 30.1 53.4 16.5 394 37.2 55.9 6.9 38.1 50.2 11.8 1331

6 : 17 2030 139.. 67% 40%. 30% 10%. 6 17 ( : %) 28.5 71.5 67.2 32.8 326 15.8 84.2 51.3 48.7 612 7.8 92.2 38.8 61.2 395 16.6 83.4 51.5 48.5 1333 4.. 6 18 17..

140 6 18 ( : %) TV / 17.3 15.0 33.6 29.9 4.2 29.4 13.0 37.1 15.1 5.4 36.4 8.6 36.4 10.0 8.6 27.0 12.7 35.8 18.8 5.7.. TV. TV. 3. 6 19.. 24.7% 10% 34.3%. 44.4% 2.. (, 2004),

6 : 17 2030 141..... 6 19 ( : %) 17.8 0.9 36.9 44.4 25.1 2.7 38.5 33.8 34.3 4.3 38.6 22.9 ( ) 24.7(161) 2.5(16) 38.0(248) 34.9(228) (filtering). TV.. (, 2004a)...

142. 28)...,.....,.... 28) (2004a).

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144 386 2030.. 2030. IT 2030,., 2030, 2030 2002 2004. 2030, 2030., 2030,,. 2030,.

7 : 2030 145.,.., 2030, TV.,., 2030 IT,,,.,, 2030 IT,. 2002 2004 2030 IT

146. IT. 2., 2030 1 2030. 2030., 2030.., 2030. 2030. IT

7 : 2030 147...

148, 2004. :, 48 3., 2003. :,,, :., 2004a. :, 20 3., 2004b. 17, 2004.. 2002. :, 18 4.. 2003., 1 2 ( ), 40 71.. 2004. : 17, 18 3., 1999. :, 41. 119 133., 2004.,, 4, 2000. 16, 34 3., 2004. 17 :, 38 5., 2005. :, :.

149, 2004., :, IT., 2003., :., 2004. 16, 47 1,., 2003. 16 :,., 2004a. :, 48 3., 2004b. :,,, 26., 2004. 16 :, 48 5., 2003., :., 2003. :,, :.. 2004. 17, 1996.,., :., 2003.,,, :., 2003.,,, :., 2004., :., 2003. 16, 37 3.

150, 2004. 17, 2004., 2002. : 2002, 32 ( ), :., 2002., :., 2005. :, :., 2005., :., 2004. : 2004 17,., 2002. : 2000, 36 3., 2004. : /,., 2001.,,, :., 2004. :,., 2004. : 17. 10 1., 2003. :,, P,., 2004. 17 :,,,., 2004., :., 2002. ( 2002-2), :.

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154 1 1.? 2. ( )?( ID ) 3.? 4. 5. 2 3, IT (,, ),, ( ) ( ). 6. (, ), ( ). 7.,, IT.,,?,.

155 2 1. 4 15? (2 3 ) (4 ) 2..,? / / 3.? / / 4. 9 ( 8 ) TV? ( 4 5 )

156. 5. ( )? ( 4 5 ). 6. ( )?.. 7.? 2 3 / 8.?,,, (NGO ) ( ) / 9.?.

157. 10.. (11, ) 19-1 1 2 3 4 5 19-2 1 2 3 4 5 19-3 1 2 3 4 5 19-4 1 2 3 4 5 19-5 (, ) ( : imbc, ) 1 2 3 4 5 19-6 1 2 3 4 5 19-7 NGO 1 2 3 4 5 19-8 1 2 3 4 5 19-9 1 2 3 4 5 19-10 ( : ) 1 2 3 4 5 19-11 1 2 3 4 5 22. ( ) ( ) 23. 24. 10 20 24 25 30 30

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