2020 1

2020 1 2020 Korea Industry Vision 2020

3 1 19 (1) 1 9 (2) 2020 2 0 (3) 2020 2 5 2 29 (1) 2 9 (2) 2020 3 0 (3) 2020 3 5 3 37 (1) 3 7 (2) 2020 3 9 (3) 2020 4 2 4 45 (1) 4 5 (2) 2020 4 6 (3) 2020 5 0 5

5 52 (1) 5 2 (2) 2020 5 4 (3) 2020 5 8 6 61 (1) 6 1 (2) 2020 6 2 (3) 2020 6 7 7 69 (1) 6 9 (2) 2020 7 1 (3) 2020 7 6 8 79 (1) 7 9 (2) 2020 8 0 (3) 2020 8 4 9 86 (1) 8 6 (2) 2020 8 8 (3) 2020 9 2 10 94 (1) 9 4 (2) 2020 9 6 (3) 2020 1 02 11 105 (1) 1 05 (2) 2020 1 07 (3) 2020 1 11 12 113 (1) 1 13 (2) 2020 1 15 (3) 2020 1 20 6

13 122 (1) 1 22 (2) 2020 1 23 (3) 2020 1 26 14 128 (1) 1 28 (2) 2020 1 30 (3) 2020 1 33 15 136 (1) 1 36 (2) 2020 1 37 (3) 2020 1 41 16 144 (1) 1 44 (2) 2020 1 45 (3) 2020 1 50 17 152 (1) 1 52 (2) 2020 1 54 (3) 2020 1 59 1 165 (1) 1 65 (2) 2020 1 67 (3) 2020 1 73 2 176 (1) 1 76 (2) 2020 1 77 7

(3) 2020 184 1 191 (1) 1 91 (2) 2020 1 93 (3) 2020 1 97 2 199 (1) 1 99 (2) 2020 2 00 (3) 2020 2 04 3 206 (1) 2 06 (2) 2020 2 08 (3) 2020 2 15 4 218 (1) 2 18 (2) 2020 2 19 (3) 2020 2 24 5 227 (1) 2 27 (2) 2020 2 32 (3) 2020 2 37 6 241 (1) 2 41 (2) 2020 2 42 (3) 2020 2 47 7 251 (1) 2 51 8

(2) 2020 2 53 (3) 2020 256 8 259 (1) 2 59 (2) 2020 2 62 (3) 265 (4) 2020 270 9 272 (1) 2 72 (2) 2020 2 74 (3) 2020 2 78 10 283 (1) 2 83 (2) 2020 2 84 (3) 2020 2 92 297 9

-1-1 19-1-2 21-1-3 2020 22-1-4 23-1-5 2020 25-1-6 2020 26-1-7 2020 28-2-1 30-2-2 31-2-3 32-2-4 34-2-5 2020 35-2-6 2020 36-2-7 2020 37-3-1 38-3-2 39-3-3 2020 42-3-4 2020 43-3-5 2020 44-4-1 45-4-2 47-4-3 2020 49-4-4 2020 51 1 0

-4-5 2020 52-5-1 53-5-2 54-5-3 2020 57-5-4 2020 59-5-5 2020 60-6-1 62-6-2 63-6-3 64-6-4 2020 66-6-5 2020 67-6-6 2020 69-7-1 70-7-2 71-7-3 74-7-4 2020 76-7-5 2020 77-7-6 2020 78-8-1 80-8-2 81-8-3 82-8-4 2020 84-8-5 2020 85-8-6 2020 86-9-1 87-9-2 88-9-3 2020 91-9-4 2020 92-9-5 2020 93-10-1 95-10-2 97-10-3 2020 101-10-4 2020 102-10-5 2020 104 1 1

-11-1 105-11-2 106-11-3 107-11-4 109-11-5 2020 110-11-6 111-11-7 2020 112-11-8 2020 113-12-1 114-12-2 116-12-3 117-12-4 2020 119-12-5 2020 120-12-6 2020 121-13-1 123-13-2 124-13-3 2020 126-13-4 2020 127-13-5 2020 128-14-1 129-14-2 130-14-3 2020 133-14-4 2020 134-14-5 2020 135-15-1 136-15-2 137-15-3 139-15-4 2020 140-15-5 2020 142-15-6 2020 143-16-1 145-16-2 146-16-3 147-16-4 2020 149 1 2

-16-5 2020 150-16-6 2020 151-17-1 153-17-2 156-17-3 2020 159-17-4 2020 160-17-5 2020 161-1-1 166-1-2 168-1-3 170-1-4 2020 172-1-5 173-1-6 174-2-1 176-2-2 178-2-3 2020 184-2-4 2020 185-2-5 2020 187-1-1 192-1-2 194-1-3 2020 196-1-4 2020 198-2-1 199-2-2 201-2-3 2020 205-3-1 207-3-2 210-3-3 2020 214-3-4 2020 215-3-5 2020 218-4-1 219-4-2 220 1 3

-4-3 2020 223-4-4 2020 224-5-1 229-5-2 230-5-3 ( ) ( ) ( 2000) 236-5-4 2020 238-5-5 GDP ( 2001 ) 239-6-1 241-6-2 243-6-3 2020 247-7-1 253-7-2 255-7-3 2020 256-8-1 260-8-2 (real sales) 261-8-3 261-8-4 263-8-5 2020 269-8-6 2020 270-8-7 (real sales) 270-9-1 273-9-2 275-9-3 277-9-4 2020 279-10-1 284-10-2 286-10-3 2020 291-10-4 2020 293-10-5 2020 295 1 4

-2-1 33-6-1 65-7-1 73-10-1 99-2-1 186-2-1 2010 202-5-1 ( ) 230-5-2 231-5-3 235-10-1 287 1 5

15 11% 91%, 191%, 075 1990 RV,, 1995 564% 2004 348%, 1990 1995 2000 2004 (%) 1991~2000 2001~2004 1991~2004 (10 ) 18,251 40,530 57,663 79,673 122 84 111 (10 ) 4,240 8,065 11,535 14,332 105 56 91 ( ) 324 339 247 243 27 04 20 (10 ) 2,264 7,911 17,425 26,105 226 106 191 (10 ) 787 1,972 2,310 3,711 114 126 117 0484 0601 0766 0751 - - - : 1) 2000 2) 3) 2004,, 4) KIET 74 42 19

42% 132%, 43% 301%, 1990 168%, 200510 228%,,,,,, 2 0

2020,,,, 21

,,, RV,,, RV, RV,,,,,,,,, 2020,,, 2020, IT 2 2

2020, 2,,,, 2, - (, 2, ) - (,,, ) - (,,,, ) - (,, ) - ( ) 23

RV,, 1, 2, 2020, RV, 2020 2020,,,, 2020, 2010 2020 2020, 2020,,, 2010 RV, 2 4

RV :, 2020, 2020 2000 122% 2000 2004 84%,, 2007 25

,, 2015 6% 5%, 2015 5%,, 2010, IT,, 8 ~ 9 % 7 ~ 8 %, 2010 2%, 2015 2005~2010 2011~2015 2016~2020 2005~2020 82 53 48 62 65 42 40 50 71 62 46 61 14 35 31 26 : 1) 2000 2) 2 6

,,, IT,,,,, 2020, 2020RV,,,,, 27

,,, High- Tech Mid- Tech Low- Tech High- Tech Mid- Tech Low- Tech RV :, 2020 2 8

2020,,,, 15 1990 1980 1990 1990 346GT, 2004 235% 1990 481%, 299%, 140% 1995 369%, 310%, 207%, 51% 2004 531%, 287%, 83%, 73%, LNG 20057 70% 1990 1 ( 21 8 %) 2 004 1 ( 37 2 %), 29

1990 1995 2000 2004 (%) 1991~2000 2001~2004 1991~2004 (10 ) 4,313 9,589 15,494 26,883 136 148 140 (10 ) 1,249 3,006 4,995 7,365 149 102 135 ( ) 68 91 94 88 34 15 20 (10 ) 1,545 4,645 12,900 20,829 236 127 204 (10 ) 330 1,222 2,599 2,648 229 05 160 0648 0583 0665 0774 - - - : 1) 2000 2) 3) 2004,, 4) KIET 74 43,,,,, 3 0

, ERP, PDM,, 31

, 2020,,, 2000,,, 1990 1995 2000 2002 2004 31 49 13 11 72 016 038 003 005 005 11 03 16 64 35 678 1213 1337 1068 2405 3 2

18,000 16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 1972 1975 1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002,, 3 3,,, LNG,, 2020,,,, 33

- LNG, CNG, PNG -,, - - - (,, - /, ) - - - ROV, AUV - - - - - PDM - ERP,,,,, SCM(Supply Chain Management),, PDM, ERP,, ROV(Remotely Operated Vehicle), AUV (Autonomous Underwater Vehicle),,, PDM, ERP,,,, 1970, 2020 3 4

LNG LNG S/W :, 2020,, LNG,, 1970 2007, 2010 35

2005~2010 2011~2015 2016~2020 2005~2020 50 35 11 33 44 36 26 36 32 29 21 28 28 10 07 16 : 1) 2000 2) 2020,, 2010,, 2020 3 6

High- Tech Mid- Tech Low- Tech High- Tech Mid- Tech Low- Tech LNG LNG LNG LNG S/W S/W :, 2020 LNG,,,, 37

1991~2004 83%, 1990 5,,,,, 2003,,,, 1991~2004 189% 1990,,,,,,,, 2004,,,,,, 1991~2004 66% 1990 0677 2004 0060 1990 1995 2000 2004 (%) 1991~2000 2001~2004 1991~2004 (10 ) 15,681 27,501 35,821 47,832 86 75 83 (10 ) 3,510 7,971 10,474 13,230 116 60 99 ( ) 330 391 346 337 05 07 02 (10 ) 1,315 4,579 9,549 14,820 219 116 189 (10 ) 6,824 15,283 16,438 16,713 92 04 66 0677 0539 0265 0060 - - - : 1) 2000 2) 3) 2004,, 4) KIET 74 32, 33 3 8

,,,,,,,,,, 39

,,,,,,,,, 1990,,,,,,, 4 0

,,, A / S, A/S 3 KD 2020 (, Micro-factoty ),, ( ) Micro-factoty,,, (,,,, ) (, ), 2020~2030,,,,, 41

:, 2020, 2020,,, 2020 2005~2020 69%,, 4 2

2005~2010 2011~2015 2016~2020 2005~2020 78 68 57 69 68 60 51 60 100 76 51 77 50 35 22 37 : 1) 2000 2) 2005~2020 7 7 %,,,,, 2004 166%, 146%, 116%,,, 428% Global Insight, 3 2020 3 324% 43

,, Global Insight, 2020 73%, 3 2004 20% 2020 37%,,, 2020, High- Tech Mid- Tech Low- Tech High- Tech Mid- Tech Low- Tech :, 2020 4 4

2020 14 64% 1990 81% 2000 25% 1990,,,, 2000 1990 1995 2000 2004 (%) 1991~2000 2001~2004 1991~2004 (10 ) 21,951 38,435 47,670 52,552 81 25 64 (10 ) 4,541 7,758 10,069 11,581 83 36 69 ( ) 157 141 92 70 53 65 56 (10 ) 2,576 4,268 7,598 12,305 114 128 118 (10 ) 2,509 5,135 6,452 11,969 99 167 118 0013 0092 0082 0014 - - - : 1) 2000 2) 3) 2004,, 4) KIET 74 29 45

1990,, 2000,,,, 1990, 2000,,, 1995WTO,, EU 10 2004, M&A 3,000 5,000~6,000 2 (Dole) 2010~2020 1 5, 4 6

,,,,,,, 4 7

, 30%,, 2000, 2010,,,,,,,, FINEX FINEX, 4 8

, 80, 2020,,, :, 2020 49

,,,,,,, 2020 34%,, FTA, 2008,, 5 0

2005~2010 2011~2015 2016~2020 2005~2020 40 32 29 34 36 29 26 31 55 42 31 43 70 26 23 41 : 1) 2000 2),,,,,,,,,, 51

High-Tech Mid-Tech Low-Tech :, 2020,, 2000, 5 2

2000, 1980 1990, 2004,,, 1990,, 2004 1990 1995 2000 2004 (%) 1991~2000 2001~2004 1991~2004 (10 ) 28,043 26,221 32,662 29,420 15 26 03 (10 ) 7,215 6,107 7,926 6,669 09 42 06 ( ) 665 535 444 391 38 32 36 (10 ) 10,017 14,909 21,505 17,169 79 55 39 (10 ) 1,805 4,061 5,837 6,962 125 45 101 0695 0572 0573 0423 - - - : 1) 2000 2) 3) 2004,, 4) KIET 74 13( ) 53

, 2 IT, NT, BT 5 4

,,, 1980,,,,,,, 55

, 2020, 30%, 2010~2015 2020 2020 2020,, (Technical Textile),,,, (,,, ), (, ), ( ), (,, ),,,,,, 3~10, 5 6

,, 2020, :, 2020 57

,,, 2000, 2010,,,,,,, 2020 2004 25% 2020 70%, 10% 40%,, 2010 5 8

2005~2010 2011~2015 2016~2020 2005~2020 04 02 02 03 05 02 02 03 01 14 11 08 66 46 36 50 : 1) 2000 2), 2010, 2008, 2005~2020 03%,,,, 2020, 59

High-Tech Mid-Tech Low-Tech :, 2020,, OEM, 2020 2020, 2020 6 0

1990 106 2004 600,,,, 5, 1990 14%, 50% 1990,,, 1991~2000 ( ) 131%, 256%, 1991~2004 105%, 215% 1990 3 12%, 10%, 1995 TPA 1990522%, 2004495%, 18% 126%, 61

1990 1995 2000 2004 (%) 1991~2000 2001~2004 1991~2004 (10 ) 11,346 23,113 38,816 45,841 131 42 105 (10 ) 2,150 4,631 7,338 9,687 131 72 114 ( ) 88 104 67 61 28 24 26 (10 ) 1,245 5,458 12,151 18,960 256 118 215 (10 ) 3,632 5,990 8,487 11,364 89 76 85 0489 0046 0178 0250 - - - : 1) 2000 2) 3) 2004,, 4) KIET 74 21( ) 17% 50%,,,, 6 2

,,, 3,, 63

2020,,, 30~50%, 2020 ( /) Jubail United PC E 1,350 04/ 05 PMD JV E/P/B 1,325 08/ 09 SABIC E/P 1,300 08 Eastern PC E/P 1,200 08/ 09 Rabigh PC E/P 1,300 09 Sahara/Tasnee JV E/P/B 1,000 09/ 10 Amirkabir PC E/P/B/N 520 05/ 06 Maroun PC E 1,100 05/ 06 Arya Sasol PC E 1,000 06 JAM PC E/P/B/N 1,320 07 : CMAI Kharg PC E 500 08 Arvand PC E 1,100 09 Equate PC E 850 07/ 08 Dow/Oman Oil E/FCC 900 10 Ras Laffan Ethylene E 1,300 09/ 10 UAE Borouge E 1,400 09/ 10 6 4

35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 : KOTIS (MTI ),, 1997 70% 2020,,, 65

,, 2020, ( ) :, 2020 6 6

2020 51%, 48% 53%, 2020,, 2005~2010 2011~2015 2016~2020 2005~2020 67 53 30 51 65 51 26 48 61 54 42 53 45 30 27 35 : 1) 2000 2) 67

, 20 1972,,,, 2020,,,, IT, BT, 2020,, 2020 6 8

High-Tech Mid-Tech Low-Tech ( ) :, 2020,,,,,,,, 50%, 20%,, 69

1990,,, 1991~2004, 71%, 73%, 122%,, 1990,,,,, 199017% 25% 1990 1995 2000 2004 (%) 1991~2000 2001~2004 1991~2004 (10 ) 10,335 14,844 21,491 27,029 76 59 71 (10 ) 3,351 4,794 6,909 9,030 75 69 73 ( ) 180 174 107 113 50 13 33 (10 ) 985 1,941 3,108 4,917 122 121 122 (10 ) 1,770 3,426 6,157 9,115 133 103 124 0285 0277 0329 0299 - - - : 1) 2000 2) 3) 2004,, 4) KIET 74 22, 23 7 0

,,, 1990,, 030,, 71

,,,,,,,, 7 2

,,,,,,, 2020,,, 2020,, 73

, 2020,,,, 2020,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, :, 7 4

2020,,, IT, BT, 2020,,,,,, 75

:, 2020 2020, 2020 2020 63%, 59% 68% 7 6

2005~2010 2011~2015 2016~2020 2005~2020 73 63 52 63 67 60 49 59 71 68 65 68 43 45 32 40 : 1) 2000 2),,, R&D,, 77

,,,,,,,,,, High-Tech Mid-Tech Low-Tech :, 2020 7 8

,,,,,, 2020 1990 1990, 1991~2000 01% 2000,,, TV, CDP MP3P 79

1990 1995 2000 2004 (%) 1991~2000 2001~2004 1991~2004 (10 ) 13,803 14,992 13,718 27,345 01 188 50 (10 ) 2,561 3,412 2,838 4,840 10 143 47 ( ) 175 181 128 126 31 04 23 (10 ) 3,890 6,165 8,291 12,648 79 111 88 (10 ) 489 1,012 1,679 2,859 131 142 134 0777 0718 0663 0631 - - - : 1) 2000 2) 3) 2004,, 4) KIET 74 34, 38 2001~2004 188% 111% 1990 TV 2000 TV, DVDP, (technology-push) (technology integrated) 8 0

TV10%, DVDP10~15% 10~20% 8 1

,, 3 2000 425% 2004 475%, 2001WTO 2000 2004 5,235 54 5,723 49 19,286 198 21,121 181 16,875 173 28,472 244 41,396 425 55,316 475 10 3,319 34 5,239 46 : Reed Electronics Research, Yearbook of World Electronics Data, 2005 : 8 2

, 4 7% FTA, EU,, LCD, PDP, T V, DMB, 2010~2015, 3 H D T V(High Definition TV),, D V D P(Digital Versatile Disc Player), DMB(Digital Multimedia B r o a d c a s t i n g ) TV( ), ( ) TV TV TV 83

TV TV DMB :, 2020, 3 2020 DMB 2004 DMB 2005 DMB, 2020 2020 2020 70%, 56%, 83% 8 4

2005~2010 2011~2015 2016~2020 2005~2020 88 72 47 70 85 68 45 67 69 55 41 56 78 81 91 83 : 1) 2000 2),,,, FTA,,, Catch-up TV ATSC( ),,,, S/W LCD TV 40%, DMB 25%,, 85

High-Tech Mid-Tech Low-Tech TV TV DMB :, 2020 MPEG4,,, 15 IT 1990 8 6

1990 1995 2000 2004 (%) 1991~2000 2001~2004 1991~2004 (10 ) 1,889 4,018 26,722 29,224 303 23 216 (10 ) 442 981 4,649 5,241 265 30 193 ( ) 67 113 182 178 105 05 73 (10 ) 1,859 3,344 11,014 19,090 195 147 181 (10 ) 1,143 2,545 6,148 7,019 183 34 138 0239 0136 0284 0462 - - - : 1) 2000 2) 3) 2004,, 4) KIET 74 35, PC,,, 15 2004 67% LCD,,, 1990, LCD 87

, 8 8

,, IT, IT,,,, (,, ) (, ), PC R&D R&D PC 2020,, 89

,,, 2020,,, 2020 (wearable computer) (GRID),,, (ubiquitous),,, 9 0

, 2020, LCD (HDD) :, 2020 91

IT 2020 5 ~ 6 % 2010 7%,, 2005~2010 2011~2015 2016~2020 2005~2020 73 77 50 67 44 66 39 49 04 60 41 30 84 66 58 70 : 1) 2000 2) 9 2

LCD (, ),,,,, High- Tech Mid- Tech Low- Tech High- Tech Mid- Tech Low- Tech LCD HDD :, 2020 93

PC 1990,,, PCS, 1990,, 1990, (1 ) (TDX) 1990 (2 ) CDMA, 1996 CDMA,, IMT-2000 CDMA, 9 4

,, 3G WCDMA High-end, 2004 2(CDMA 1) 1990 20%, 1990 2004 33%,,, 1990 1990 0252 19950110 1998 2004 0735, 1990 1995 2000 2004 (%) 1991~2000 2001~2004 1991~2004 (10 ) 3,011 5,870 19,901 51,859 208 271 225 (10 ) 545 1,064 5,314 14,136 256 277 262 ( ) 54 48 205 226 144 24 108 (10 ) 534 1,574 9,301 29,293 331 332 331 (10 ) 320 1,262 4,909 4,471 314 23 207 0252 0110 0309 0735 - - - : 1) 2000 2) 3) 2004,, 4) KIET 74 39 95

, 1996CDMA,,,,,,, ( ), CDMA 525~65%, GSM 10% 9 6

,, High-end,, 97

,,, CDMA, CDMA 2000 1x, EV-DO,, DMB, 2004 1~2 ( ) ( ),,,, High-end,, Low-end 2020 9 8

(2004) (2020) ( ) 1 ) ( ) 4 ( ) 2 ( ) 3 (LG ) 5-6 (?) : Gartner group, : 2004,, R&D, 2020 3G WCDMA, Wibro 2010 4 2020 99

, 11, e-mail,, MP3,, DMB,, 2015 3 4 4,,,,,,, PDA,, PDA CDMA,,, HDD, DMB IT 2020 1 0 0

66% 1990 2004,,, 2020,,, :, 2020 101

2020,,,,,, 2020 71%, 10%, 2005~2010 2011~2015 2016~2020 2005~2020 86 75 50 71 91 77 52 74 133 106 69 104 66 71 51 62 : 1) 2000 2) 1 0 2

,,,,, 3 High-end,,, OEM,, 103

2020, 2020, 4G,,,,,,,, High- Tech Mid- Tech Low- Tech High- Tech Mid- Tech Low- Tech :, 2020 1 0 4

,,,, 3 2020, IT 1990,, 2000 TFT-LCD, 2 1990 1990~1995 1995~2000 2000~ CDT DRAM LCD IC PCB TFT-LCD, PDP, OLED SoC, 2 LED : 105

1990 1995 2000 2004 (%) 1991~2000 2001~2004 1991~2004 (10 ) 8,192 15,751 60,197 115,214 221 176 208 (10 ) 1,643 5,266 19,307 37,524 279 181 250 ( ) 209 216 285 313 31 24 29 (10 ) 4,409 19,369 42,118 57,730 253 82 202 (10 ) 3,381 7,487 25,236 28,034 223 27 163 0132 0442 0251 0346 - - - : 1) 2000 2) 3) 2004,, 4) KIET 74 37,,,,,,,, 1 0 6

2010 TV AV 1 0 7

(ubiquitous) (BT), (NT), IT ( +IT+ET), ( +IT), ( + + + ) (Eco-design), EU20067,,, 6, 6,,,,, PC,, 1 0 8

3,, LCD IT,,, 4,,,,,, 2010, DRAM OLEDLCD,,,, OLED LED21 LED, LED 109

,, 3,,, LCD OLED, 2 D,, 2 LCD 2 OLED LED :, 2020 1 1 0

( ) ( ) PCB,,, LCD, PDP, OLED, LED 2, ( ) ( ) LED, IT 2004~ 2020 60%,,,, 2004~2020 54% LCD,, PCB,,, 111

2005~2010 2011~2015 2016~2020 2005~2020 78 57 41 60 77 55 40 58 58 60 43 54 76 85 60 74 : 1) 2000 2), LCD,, 2020 LCD,, 3 3, 1 1 2

High-Tech Mid-Tech Low-Tech LCD 2 OLED LED :, 2020 (product technology), ( p r o c e s s technology), (assembly technology),,, 1990 2000 1) 331( ), 332(,, ), 333(, ), 334( ) 113

70% 2000,,,,,,,,,, 3~5, 5~10,,,, /, 1990 1995 2000 2004 (%) 1991~2000 2001~2004 1991~2004 (10 ) 3,251 4,593 6,370 7,334 70 36 60 (10 ) 611 1,295 1,736 1,806 110 10 80 ( ) 61 78 72 62 17 38 01 (10 ) 598 1,203 2,238 2,876 141 65 119 (10 ) 1,634 4,961 7,815 9,860 169 60 137 0464 0610 0555 0548 - - - : 1) 2000 2) 3) 2004,, 4) KIET 74 40, 41 1 1 4

, 1990,,,,, 199027 200434, 1360 69,840,,,,,, IT,,,,,,, 115

( ) (, ) ( ) (, ) 1 1 6

1999 2004 471 04 666 05 49,719 440 52,316 398 13,154 116 18,880 144 12,311 109 13,070 100 2,742 24 3,435 26 : Reed Electronics Research, Yearbook of World Electronics Data, 90 %, EU,, /,,, 2004 15 10, 3, 1,, Catch-up MEMS(Micro-Electro-Mechanical System : ),, 117

, MEMS, MEMS MEMS MEMS CMOS I-MEMS, (,, ), (, ), IT (, RF ) (,, ), ( ) 1995, (New Frontier ),, MEMS DNA Lab-on-chip ( ),, DVDP,,,, ( ),,, 1 1 8

MEMS :, 2020, MEMS, 2020,, 119

2020 44%, 24%, 4 3 %,,,,,, 4~5%, FTA,, Catch-up 1%, 2005~2010 2011~2015 2016~2020 2005~2020 61 47 20 44 50 43 37 44 42 19 06 24 52 42 32 43 1 2 0

, MEMS, IT,, MEMS,, High- Tech Mid- Tech Low- Tech High- Tech Mid- Tech Low- Tech MEMS :, 2020 121

, 2020 IT (LCD ), IT, BT, NT, 2004 12,200 1990 3, 1990, KT-1, T-50 T-50 12, 1 2 2

1990 1995 2000 2004 (%) 1991~2000 2001~2004 1991~2004 (10 ) 382 1,270 1,716 1,220 162 82 87 (10 ) 101 174 266 217 102 49 56 ( ) 4 7 6 5 43 75 08 (10 ) 146 194 949 697 206 74 118 (10 ) 735 1,873 1,443 1,478 70 06 51 0668 0812 0206 0359 - - - : 1) 2000 2) 3) 2004,, 4) KIET 74 45,,,,,,, (Dual Use),,, 123

,,,, 1 2 4

,,, 2020 2020,, KT-1, T-50, 2010 KHP,, 2020,,,,, IT 2020 125

:, 2020 ( ) 2020 2020,,,,, 2020 7% 1 2 6

2005~2010 2011~2015 2016~2020 2005~2020 111 65 41 75 116 109 37 88 48 60 52 53 48 49 37 45 : 1) 2000 2) ( 2010 ) T-50 A350, KHP, 5%,, T-50,, KHP,, 127

High- Tech Mid- Tech Low- Tech High- Tech Mid- Tech Low- Tech :, 2020,,, (Mid Tech),,,, 1991~2004 98% 1 2 8

1990 1995 2000 2004 (%) 1991~2000 2001~2004 1991~2004 (10 ) 7,311 12,486 20,868 26,982 111 66 98 (10 ) 2,045 3,699 5,999 6,470 114 19 86 ( ) 139 206 223 232 48 10 37 (10 ) 962 2,133 4,129 6,634 157 126 148 (10 ) 1,375 2,876 6,228 7,847 163 59 132 0177 0148 0203 0084 - - - : 1) 2000 2) 3) 2004,, 4) KIET 74 36, 1990 5,,,,, 2003,,,, 1991~2004 148%, 1990,,, 2004,, 132% 1990 0177 2004 0084 129

, 200kW,,, 1 3 0

,,,,,,,,,,, 1990 2000,,,,,,, 131

, 2020,,,,,,,, Oilless, GIS,,,,,,, 2020,,,,, 1 3 2

IT :, 2020,,,,, FACTS(Flexible Alternating Current Transmission System),, 2020,, 2020,,, 2005~2020 73% 133

2005~2010 2011~2015 2016~2020 2005~2020 88 74 55 73 65 55 41 54 80 55 41 60 64 45 37 50 : 1) 2000 2) 2005~2020 60%,,,,, 1 3 4

High- Tech Mid- Tech Low- Tech High- Tech Mid- Tech Low- Tech GIS IT :, 2020 Global Insight, 2005123%, 2020 252%, 2020, Global Insight, 2020 25%, IT, 135

200010, 2 2004 134, 24 1990 10,, 1990 1995 2000 2004 (%) 1991~2000 2001~2004 1991~2004 (10 ) 4,221 7,860 10,242 13,389 93 69 86 (10 ) 828 1,605 2,034 2,360 94 38 78 ( ) 48 46 37 32 27 34 29 (10 ) 488 1,331 2,709 4,845 187 156 178 (10 ) 1,750 4,148 6,479 8,055 140 56 115 0564 0514 0410 0249 - - - : 1) 2000 2) 3) 2004,, 4) KIET 74 30 1 3 6

,,, 1 3 7

,,,,,,, 1990,, 1,,,,,,,,,,, 1 3 8

,,,,,,,,, S m e l t i n g,, - - - - Virtual Reality - - - - Pb-free - - Pb-free solder - / - - - - - - ( ) - - - - - PC - - - - - - - - - - / - 139

,,,,, 1980,,,,,, :, 2020 1 4 0

,,,,,,,,,,,, 2020 141

2005~2010 2011~2015 2016~2020 2005~2020 75 58 39 59 56 49 33 47 90 70 51 72 45 28 22 33 : 1) 2000 2), 2020 59%, 47%,, 2020 7%,,,, 1 4 2

High-Tech Mid-Tech Low-Tech :, 2020,,,,,,,,,,,, 143

,,,,,,,, 1990, 1980 OEM 1990,, 10,, OEM, 1 4 4

1990 1995 2000 2004 (%) 1991~2000 2001~2004 1991~2004 (10 ) 12,230 7,587 5,743 4,394 73 65 71 (10 ) 3,358 1,780 1,460 1,060 80 77 79 ( ) 356 167 87 71 132 49 109 (10 ) 4,218 2,997 3,212 1,774 27 138 60 (10 ) 570 1,202 1,207 1,895 78 119 90 0762 0427 0454-0033 - - - : 1) 2000 2) 3) 2004,, 4) KIET 74 15 16 R&D,, 2004 70%, 1990(32%) 67% FTA, 145

e-, IT, BT, NT 1 4 6

1990,,, OEM,,,, 2020 - (,,, ) -, -, - (, ) - OEM - - ODM, OBM - (,, ) - OEM - - OEM - 147

,, OEM 2020, IT, BT, NT IC,,, CAD/CAM (),,,, 2020, 1 4 8

,, 2020,, 2020,, :, 2020 149

2020, 2005~2020 01%, 1%, IT, BT, NT O D M(Original Design Manufacturing), OBM(Original Brand M a n u f a c t u r i n g ),, 2005~2010 2011~2015 2016~2020 2005~2020 03 01 01 01 12 08 04 08 22 02 05 10 35 22 19 26 : 1) 2000 2) 1 5 0

,,, 3,,,,,, OEM High- Tech Mid- Tech Low- Tech High- Tech Mid- Tech Low- Tech :, 2020 151

ODM OBM,, (Flexible Manufacturing System),,,,, 1 5 2

,,,,,,, 33%, 06%, 15%, 15 33% 1990 1995 2000 2004 (%) 1991~2000 2001~2004 1991~2004 (10 ) 34,072 45,604 52,860 53,909 45 05 33 (10 ) 7,568 9,283 10,491 10,875 33 09 26 ( ) 499 425 383 429 26 29 11 (10 ) 1,338 2,215 3,144 3,429 89 22 70 (10 ) 2,431 4,212 7,591 9,695 121 63 104 0290 0311 0414 0478 - - - : 1) 2000 2) 3) 2004,, 4) KIET 74 10, 11, 12 153

,,,,,, 2004 12 258,000 47% 1990,,,,,,,,, 2004 686,,,,,,,,, DDA,,, 65 1 5 4

20048 7 % 2020 15 %,,,,,,,,,, on time on site Radio Frequency Identification supply chain,,,,,,,,, 155

1990 117,000, 19,000,,, 15 2004, 124,000 1 5 6

27,000, 24,000, 17,000, 1,, 1 2 3 1990 10 5 2004 6,, (2003) 600, 10% 10% 1 157

2003 4,000, 16,000,,,, 1, 2,,,,,,,, 1 5 8

:, 2020,,, 2005~2020 28% 159

2005~2010 2011~2015 2016~2020 2005~2020 31 33 21 28 32 32 20 28 21 46 29 31 50 61 47 52 : 1) 2000 2), 28%, BT 4% 2005~2020 31%, 52%,,, 2020,,, 1 6 0

,,,,,, BT,,,,, High- Tech Mid- Tech Low- Tech High- Tech Mid- Tech Low- Tech :, 2020 161

,, BT, (flavor), BT 1 6 2

2004 1990 3 199047,000 2004 45,000 (1 )19908,800 2004 28,000 1990 94% 2000 58% 15 83%,, 2000 ( /GDP 1 ), 2004 367 6 T W h (terawatt hour)1 990 3 2 ) 1990 ~ 2004 78% 2004 59, 961 M W( m e g a w a t t ), (,, LNG) 1 9905 2 6 % 20046 3 2 % 3 ) 19908 40 M W 2004 14, 313 M W 17 4 0 % 23 9 % 2000 2) 1 TWh=1,000 GWh=1 KWh 3) LNG (Combined Cycle) 165

1990 1995 2000 2004 (%) 1990~2000 2000~2004 1990~2004 (10 ) 7,322 12,332 18,021 22,406 94 56 83 (10 ) 4,097 6,343 10,036 12,570 94 58 83 ( ) 47 45 40 44 16 26 04 (TWh) 944 1633 2395 3121 98 68 89 (TWh) 1185 2035 2904 3676 94 61 84 2,340 (111) 3,093 (96) 3,149 (65) 3,879 (65) 30 54 37 7,616 (362) 8,616 (268) 13,716 (283) 16,716 (279) 61 51 58 11,065 (MW,%) (526) 20,475 (636) 31,586 (652) 37,877 (632) 111 46 92 0 (00) 0 (00) 0 (00) 1,489 (25) - - - 21,021 (1000) 32,184 (1000) 48,451 (1000) 59,961 (1000) 87 55 78 : 1) 2000 2) 2004 3) KIET 74 49 4) 5) 19903 6 2 % 19952 6 8 % 2004 27 9 % 1990 1 6 6

1999, 2000 6, ( ), ( ) 2020,, 10, 10,, 2020,,, 167

2020,,, 1 6 8

, (:4 ), ( ), 40% 60%,,,,,, 2004 ~ 2012 8 79 177 M W, 169

20MW 20~50MW 71640 10766 7369 6520 6180 2% 2012 8 4 % 4), 31 < -1-3>,, ( ),,,, 3 2020,,, (Si) (GaAs), (monocrystalline silicon), (multicrystalline silicon) 4) 2 1 7 0

, (amorphous silicon), 80%, ( ), 70% 2020 (rotor), (blade) (hub) (gear box),,, 1988,,, 3, 1 2004~2007, 2 2012, 3 2018 2004 2020, 171

,,, 2020 2030,,,,,, 2012 :, 2020 1 7 2

2012 2020 2004 63% 312 1 T W h,, 2020 4~5% 2005~2020 45% 2005~2010 53%, 5 2005~2010 2011~2015 2016~2020 2005~2020 53 42 37 45 54 44 37 46 : 1) 2000 2) 173

42%, 2016~2020 37% 2020, 200459,961MW 2017 88,038MW 2017, 303% LNG 263% 25% 2017 73% LNG 2004 2010 2015 2017 16,716 17,465 15,746 4,665 3,879 1,489 59,961 (279) (291) (263) (78) (65) (25) (1000) 18,716 24,265 20,552 4,913 6,290 3,892 78,628 (238) (309) (261) (62) (80) (50) (1000) 26,637 22,240 23,131 2,328 6,290 5,712 86,338 (309) (258) (268) (27) (73) (66) (1000) 26,637 22,240 23,131 3,328 6,290 6,412 88,038 (303) (253) (263) (38) (71) (73) (1000) :, 2, 2004 : ( ) 1 7 4

2 2020, 90GW(gigawatt), 2017,,, 2020, 2005 2020,, 175

2004 93% 1990, (2000 )199074 2004 122 1416, 36%, 34 51 15, 30% 2004 18 81%, 1990 14, 22% 5) 1990 1995 2000 2004 (%) 1991~2000 2001~2004 1991~2004 (10 ) 74,071 107,591 100,867 121,690 31 48 36 (10 ) 33,769 47,925 42,927 51,411 24 46 30 ( ) 1,346 1,913 1,580 1,820 16 36 22 (10 ) 73 55 197 357 105 159 120 (10 ) 1 21 63 113 565 160 437 : 1) 2000 2) 3) 2004,, 4) KIET 74 52 5) 2000 1 97 179 2 1 7 6

, 1990 681%319%, 2004 597%, 403% 2004 1022% 1990369% 2004 300%, 67% 6) 2004 01% 3,570 ( ) 2020,,,,,,, 5,,, 6) (2004), 177

,, 20, CO2,,, 1 7 8

2008 2010 (EXPO),, 2~3 10,,, 11% 5 5 2020 7) (2005), II 179

2025 ( ) 2020 2,000m, 300m, 20km, 4, 20km ( ) ( ) One Earth,, 30 200, 1 8 0

200 100 100, ( ) 2020 150, 600m 24 1,000m, (CO2) (CO2), 181

ITS(Intelligent Traffic System) 200,,,,,, CM,,,, Total PackageOne Stop Service (OSS), Partnering (Grade) (Quality) 1 8 2

( ),, (CM: Construction Management) CM ( C M / P M ) 10% CM C M, / Program Management, PM CM/PM 2020,,,,, 2010 183

:, 2020,,,,, 2020 2020 1 8 4

,, 2020 4%, 2005~2020 36% 04%,, 2007,,,,,, 2005~2010 2011~2015 2016~2020 2005~2020 47 42 30 40 42 39 27 36 108 98 70 93 95 58 52 70 : 1) 2000 2) 185

WTODDA FTA (M&A),, 100 SOC/, PM / 0 + Engr+ +PM, PCM : 1 8 6

,,,,,,, (ODA: Official Development Assistance),, High-Tech Mid-Tech Low-Tech (CM/PM) - / :, 2020 187

10 Total Package One Stop Service (OSS) (CM/PM), (PF: Project Financing),, 1 8 8

(business service industries),, 8),,,,, (,, ), ( ),,,,,,, (SW HW, ),,,,,,, 21,, 8) (2000),, 191

, OECD 2001 GDP,,, 10%, 3~4% 9),, IT, 15 199019 2004 52 74%, 1990 1995 2000 2004 (%) 1991~2000 2001~2004 1991~2004 (10 ) 19,222 32,143 41,283 51,992 79 59 74 (10 ) 11,371 18,838 24,752 29,378 81 44 70 ( ) 279 519 913 1,229 126 77 112 (10 ) 141 1,051 2,883 3,588 352 56 260 (10 ) 1,447 3,393 8,457 12,374 193 100 166 : 1) 2000 2) 3) 2004,, 4) KIET 74 60 61 9) (2004),, 1 9 2

11 29 70%, 1,410 35,880 260%, 199014,470 2004 123,740 166% (1990~2000) (2001~2004),,,,,, < -1-2>,,,,,, 193

,,,,, 1 9 4

,, OECD (40% ) 1990,,,, 10 1990,,,,,, BRICs, 195

,, IT S I(system integration, ) 2020, SI SI :, 2020 1 9 6

,,,,,, 15, SI ( ), 2020, 2020 2005~2020 74%, 69% 1990~2004 74%, 70%,, 58% (1990~2004 112% ), IT, 16 58%, 2020 86%, 2005~2010 197

2005~2010 2011~2015 2016~2020 2005~2020 89 80 51 74 83 75 49 69 50 68 57 58 113 81 59 86 : 1) 2000 2), 2010 2020 2010, 2010, IT,, BRICs, IT, 1 9 8

,,,,,, 3G, 1990, 1990, KTSKT, LGT, 1990 1995 2000 2004 (%) 1991~2000 2001~2004 1991~2004 (10 ) 5,147 12,506 33,144 48,156 205 98 173 (10 ) 2,626 6,034 13,933 24,743 182 154 174 ( ) 132 175 217 246 51 32 46 : 1) 2000 2) 2004 3) KIET 74 56 68 199

,,,, 199051,470 1991~2004 173% 2004 1990 10 481,560 2020, 2020,,,,,,, /,,,, 2 0 0

,, 201

, ( ) ( ) 2 ATM ATM, xdsl,,,,,,,, network Satelite network PSTN ISDN IPv6 Packet Core Network / WLAN xdsl, HFC network PCS IMT-2000 : 2 0 2

DMB, TV, Webcasting, IPTV,,,,,,,,, /, 2020 1990, 2020 4G,,,,,, 4G,, 2020 203

IT 839 8 2020 DMB,,, 2020 2020, RFID 2020 DTV 2005 15, 2020,,, 1990,,, 80%, 2020 ( ) 91% 2 0 4

2005~2010 2011~2015 2016~2020 2005~2020 100 93 79 91 105 99 85 97 : 1) 2000,, 2005~2010 100% 2010,,, 2020, CT-2, DMB, 1990, CDMA, 205

,,,,,,,,,,, 1991 2004 78% 2004 29 10) MRI 10), 2 0 6

1990 1995 2000 2004 (%) 1991~2000 2001~2004 1991~2004 (10 ) 10,184 15,998 21,628 28,994 78 76 78 (10 ) 7,216 10,199 10,643 11,746 40 25 35 ( ) 289 374 573 764 71 75 72 (10 ) 1 3 33 109 414 351 395 (10 ) 16 36 60 82 138 84 122 : 1) 2000 2) 3) 2004,, 4) KIET 74 65,,, 1991 2004 72% 2001 75% 1990, 1991 2004 395%, 122%,,,,, 207

,,, BRICS, 2 0 8

,, LOHAS(Life of Health and Sustainablity) ( ), ( ), ( ) ITBTNT u-health (EHR: Electronic Health Record),,,,,, 209

2 1 0

,,,,,, (long-term care),,,,,, 1970,,, 211

,,,, 2005 2008 NY Presbyterian,,,,, 2010 2015 IT, 2005, 2 1 2

IT IT 2005,,,, 2020 2005,, (disruptive) 2020 213

( ) :, 2020,, 2020, 2010 2015 2 1 4

,,, 2020 48% 1991 2004 78%, 15 14 (< -3-1> ),, 108% < -3-4>,, 10%, 15%, 5%, 2005~2010 2011~2015 2016~2020 2005~2020 62 45 33 48 32 34 31 32 159 95 64 108 80 60 47 63 215

5%, 10%, 7%, 2020 32%,,,,,,,,,,,, HMO 2 1 6

, IT,,,,, (WSCH: World Stem Cell Hub), 217

High-Tech Mid-Tech Low-Tech ( ) :, 2020, 1990 2004 107%, 89%,,,,,, 2 1 8

1990 1995 2000 2004 (%) 1991~2000 2001~2004 1991~2004 (10 ) 3,474 7,187 9,967 14,447 111 97 107 (10 ) 1,991 3,527 5,008 6,555 97 70 89 ( ) 137 155 304 402 83 73 80 (10 ) 106 641 1,026 1,346 255 56 195 (10 ) 156 672 1,316 1,686 254 100 208 : 1) 2000 2) 3) 2004,, 4) KIET 74 69, 70,,,,,,, 2000,,,, Mega Trend,, 219

,,,,, 2 2 0

,, 10,,,,,,,, e-book,,,, 221

, WTO,,,,,,,,, 2020,,,,, 2000 50%,, 2 2 2

,,,,,,,, DVD, 2020,,,,,, 2000 2020, :, 2020 223

3,,,, 5 2020 78%,,,,,,,, 2005~2010 2011~2015 2016~2020 2005~2020 93 75 64 78 85 71 64 74 52 37 21 37 39 57 47 47 33 34 32 33 : 1) 2000 2) 2 2 4

,, 2000,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, 225

,, 2020,,,,,,,,,,,,,, 2 2 6

2020,,,,,,, 21 227

2004, 39 1, 29 6 1991 ~ 2004 4 2 %, 2 9 % 1991 ~ 2004 4 0 %,, 1990 <-5-1> 1990 1997 2000 20044 187, 67, 38, 81, 2004 17, OECD (15) (PISA: Program for International Student Assessment), 2003 PISA,, 11), 2, 4,,, 11) (2004) PISA 2003, 1 (2004), PISA 2003 2 2 8

,,, 2000 (<-5-2>) 2010 1980, 1975258% 2001705% < -5-2> 4 403% 1, 2003 1 318 OECD, 1990 1995 2000 2004 (%) 1991~2000 2001~2004 1991~2004 (10 ) 22,007 28,844 32,494 39,145 40 48 42 (10 ) 19,877 24,005 25,697 29,649 26 36 29 ( ) 749 800 1,000 1,298 29 67 40 : 1) 2000 2) 2004 3) KIET 74 64 229

/ (%) (2004) 201 1,698,401 236,833 324,207 66,720 8,399 50,427 47,904,370 403 (2000/1) 171 1,541,930 448,700 272,665 72,415 14,115 111,458 59,647,790 334 (2000) 2,272 6,960,470 2,072,275 1,184,406 430,164 46,010* 535,161 278,058,881 324 702 2,509,374 230,844 544,894 67,412 14,512 156,000 126,771,662 220 :,,, 2005 07/08 : 1) Professional degrees 78,598 2), 327%, 616%,, / 2 200,000 187,683 150,000 133,249 149,993 159,903 100,000 106,458 120,170 50,000 53,875 84,765 58,457 49,047 56,390 0 24,315 1985 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2004 : 2 3 0

30,000 25,000 A B 26,676 28,126 28,346 C 20,000 15,000 10,000 7,944 10,132 9,812 10,498 9,876 5,000 3,274 1,562 1,839 4,397 5,925 0 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 : : A, B ( ), C ( ),, 8, MIT6, 19, 23 1990 67%, 12), 12),,, 2005 231

20 2005 1,6436,000 4,8461,000 339%, 2020 20 1,2913,000 5,065 255% 2005 2034 11 50%, 24 50~70% 1/3 IMD(2001), 1 31 49 44, 1 24 42, WTO,,, 2 3 2

,,, 13), (e- ),, 13) 2005 22,526, 581% 233

IT BT,, e-,, < -5-3>,,,,, 2 2 3 4

(2005~2010) (2011~2015) (2015~ ),,, 14), SCI 100, 2003 49, 9, 14) MBA,, MIT, MBA 235

8 1 15),,, 16), ( -5-3 ), 2,155 118 356 20 796 21 602 14 29 02 53 03 3,758 32 150 02 10,280 35 2,150 10 80 04 211 09 1,170 21 849 15 4 00 78 05 60 49 113 27 : Larsen et al (2002) 15),,,, 2005 07/08 16) (ICE) (F1/M1 ) (SEVIS), 2004 234 73,272 2 72,457(1237%), 3 56,786(969) F1 2 3 6

,,,, 2020 25~64 2000 6, 2020 3 17), 2020 18), 10,, 17) Deutsche Bank, : 2020, 2005 8 18) (200065,113) (200265,522) 1990 1987~2004 17 133, 249,,, 2005 07/08 237

2005~2010 2011~2015 2016~2020 2005~2020 40 35 23 33 31 28 20 26 : 2000 BT, IT,,,,, < -5-5> GDP 04%, OECD 1%,, 2005 2 3 8

OECD 35 35 03 10 38 46 10 04 03 23 : OECD, Education at a Glance, 2004 14 27 57 73 100% 80%, OECD GDP OECD,, 19), 19) 2005,,, 2006, (2005) 239

7 2 BK21 2007 2004 104% 1990,, 101 89 1990 1994 98 26 20),,,, R&D,,,,,, 20) Skodin and Stensaker, 1998,, DDA 2002, 2 4 0

1990 15 1990 416 2004 701 38% 1990 253 2004 427 38%, 298 2004 386 19%,, TV, (B2B, B2C),,, 1990 1995 2000 2004 (%) 1991~2000 2001~2004 1991~2004 (10 ) 41,644 54,198 65,974 70,060 47 15 38 (10 ) 25,272 33,906 40,713 42,654 49 12 38 ( ) 2,975 3,634 3,901 3,856 27 03 19 : 1) 2000 2) 2004 3) KIET 74 53 241

2000,, 1990, 1990 2000 4~5%, 2000 2004 1% 1990 2000 27%, 2000 2004, 15 1996 1,, (ATM),, RFID(Radio Frequency Identification, ) 2 4 2

(traceability), 21),, 21) RFID RFID RFID, RFID,,, RFID 15~27m 243

,,,,,,,,,,,,, 2 4 4

2005 1996,, 100,,,, TV, 15,,, 2005 TV,, 245

15,, 22) TV,,,, 10,,, 2005,,,,, 22) 2 4 6

10,, 15 2020 129 2004 37%, 2020 95 2004 34%,, 2005 4, 2005~2010 2011~2015 2016~2020 2005~2020 51 30 27 37 45 28 26 34 : 2000 247

,, RFID, 1990 1, 2020,, 23),,,,,, 23), AT Kearney 20059 2015,,,, 2 4 8

,, ( BRICs ), RFID, SCI(Supply Chain Intelligence),, (interactive) TV,,, (ubiquitous commerce), IT,,, (PB), (CRM) RFID,, 10 RFID, IT,, 249

, 100 2003 200 80, 119 1998 2003 5 262% 12 100 5,, 2000, TV, 10~15 4, 3, TV 2003 CJ, 27, (2006 ),,, 21 BRICs,,,, 2 5 0

,,,,, 15,,,,,,,,,,, 5 251

,,, 5 IMF 2000,, 80%,,, 15,, 2 5 2

1990 1995 2000 2004 (%) 1991~2000 2001~2004 1991~2004 (10 ) 23,123 29,930 36,376 41,869 46 36 43 (10 ) 8,363 12,242 14,862 16,636 59 29 50 ( ) 960 1,781 1,851 2,007 68 20 54 (10 ) 757 1,990 3,686 4,588 171 56 137 (10 ) 1,123 3,597 7,509 11,850 209 121 183 : 1) 2000 2) 3) 2004,, 4) KIET 74 54, 2000,, 1990 2 ( 4~5% ),,,, < -7-2>,,, 253

,,,, 1, 2,,,,,,,,, 5 5,,,,,,,, 2 5 4

,,, 2 5 5

2005~2010 2011~2015 2016~2020 2005~2020 49 37 28 39 41 35 28 35 05 03 04 02 93 52 37 62 100 75 57 79 : 1) 2000 2) 2020, 3 5 % 02%, 1,, 2 5 6

,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, 257

,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, 2 5 8

, 21,, 24) 1990~2004 24 (< -27-1> ) 4(1999~2002), (134) (140) 198 2000 771 (GDP 133%) 200287 (GDP 127%), 25) 70%, 4 (1999~2002) (134) (140) 198, 1999808% 2002 750%, 1999159% 24), ( ) 25) 2001681%, 2002727% 259

2002219%,,,, 15,,, 5 (< -8-1> ) 2000,, 2000771 (GDP 133%) 200287 (GDP 127%), 70% 26), 1990 1995 2000 2004 (%) 1991~2000 2001~2004 1991~2004 (10 ) 27,656 41,206 56,086 65,741 73 41 64 (10 ) 13,274 18,115 23,914 27,506 61 36 53 ( ) 822 952 1,097 1,206 29 24 28 (10 ) 2,951 9,552 19,572 25,864 208 72 168 (10 ) 2,377 6,273 11,602 17,189 172 103 152 : 1) 2000 2) 3) 2004,, 4) KIET 74 55 26) 2001681%, 2002727% 2 6 0

1990 1995 2000 2004 1990~1995 2000~1995 2000~2004 1,827,383 2,130,222 2,466,746 2,699,244 331 316 236 341 391,920 480,556 547,810 608,600 452 280 277 395 26,558 37,939 51,620 52,174 857 721 027 689 274,976 317,361 321,548 307,284 308 026 111 084 31,872 41,687 49,596 67,011 616 379 878 788 : 1997 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 420 73 450 67 450 63 460 59 470 62 4010 708 4960 736 5360 742 5840 760 5650 746 1240 218 1320 196 1400 195 1380 180 1450 192 04 01 04 01 04 01 04 01 04 01 5670 6730 7210 7690 7580 : (2005),, 1999 57 2003 76 83%, 1999708% 2003 746%,, 2003 62%, 192%, 01% 261

2020 15,,,,,,,,,, 200032TEU 27) 2010 47TEU,,,, e- 2002 1, 2005, 27) TEU Twenty-foot Equivalent Units, 20 1 2 6 2

, (pallet),,,, 263

,,,, (hub),, 28) 29) 3 4,,,,,,, 28) 3 (third-party logistics, TPL), 3 (transaction-based) (Partnership),,, 29) 4 (fourth-party logistics, 4PL), LLP(Lead Logistics Provider), (General Contractor) 4 (single contact point),, 4, IT 2 6 4

,,,,,,,,, 1990,, 2005121 ( ) ( ) ( ) 3()2() 30) 30) 3 ( ) (), ( ) ( ), 2 265

31) 4 ( ),,,,,,,,,,,,,,, 31) 2010, 4 2 6 6

,,,, IT e-,,,,, 3,,,,,,,,,,, 267

, (feeder service, ) 32) 33),,,,,, ( ), (< -8-5> ) 2020 ( ),, 3, 32),,,, 33) ( ), ( ), ( ), ( ), ( ), ( ), ( ) 2 6 8

SW,, 7,,, 3, (cyber),,,, :, 2020 269

, (< -8-1>), 2020 2005~2010 2011~2015 2016~2020 2005~2020 72 64 47 61 65 63 48 59 39 60 43 47 33 58 43 44 : 1) 2000 2) 2004 2010 2015 2020 2004~2010 2010~2015 2015~2020 2004~2020 2,699,244 3,247,721 3,772,818 4,382,067 339 323 323 390 608,600 699,339 802,225 919,197 248 294 365 319 52,174 53,957 49,238 54,835 057 175 284 032 307,284 343,967 391,044 449,891 199 274 376 290 67,011 90,983 112,835 133,065 596 480 448 616 86,438 131,316 173,737 220,758 865 646 677 971 2 7 0

382 61% (< -8-6> ),, (< -27-7> ), (, ) ( = ),,, < -8-5>, ( ),,,,,, HW, (Busan New Port) 2011 30 271

5 25, 2 5, 804TEU 21 51, 2010 338, 200512 1 5 ( ), 16 2010 2,500TEU, 5 34), Two-Parts-System,, (On Doc) SW,, 2004 1990 82% 3 15 34) (, 32km, 6 ), 2 7 2

16 46 1990 39 2004 103 15 1990, 2000, 2000 2000 (following),, 15 1990, 2000 15 15 1990 1995 2000 2004 (%) 1991~2000 2001~2004 1991~2004 (10 ) 21,842 44,589 53,636 65,838 94 53 82 (10 ) 16,032 31,992 35,256 46,305 82 71 79 ( ) 394 831 817 1,025 76 58 71 : 1) 2000 2) 2004 3) KIET 74 57 273

,,,,, (banking),,,, 2 7 4

,,,, (asset management industry) 275

(global funding), 10, ( ), (wealth) (defined-contribution), M&A ( ), 2 7 6

,,,,,,,,, 277

(local market), M&A (: 3%+), 50, 2020 57% 5 4 % 2020 65% (market structure),, (inter-generational wealth transfer) 2 7 8

,,,,, (professionals),,, (wealth management) (face-to-face),, (1955~1963 )2005 50 2015 2005~2010 2011~2015 2016~2020 2005~2020 65 60 43 57 60 58 44 54 : 2000 279

, 2010,,,, 2010,,, 2020 200,,, 2 8 0

,,,,,,,,,, 281

,, M&A, (non-standard),, 2020,,,, 2 8 2

, 10, 2015,, ( )15 325 (1990) 61 (2004) 2(19) 18 15, 1998,, 283

1990 1995 2000 2004 (%) 1991~2000 2001~2004 1991~2004 (10 ) 32,500 45,672 57,506 61,051 59 15 46 (10 ) 24,102 33,185 41,592 43,316 56 10 43 ( ) 251 237 317 371 24 40 28 : 1) 2000 2) 2004 3) KIET 74 58,,,,,,,, 15, 2 8 4

,,,,,,,,, 386 1, 1 2 3 2,,, 1 1,,,,,, 285

? (,,, ),,, 15,,,, 2 8 6

/ tech, Global Trend & change, 120% (second house) 1990, 10, 287

,,, 1 35) Jonathan D Miiler(2005), Emerging Trend in real estate 2005, ULI, 2 8 8

,,,,,,,, 36),, (second house ),,, 36) 1 2,, 289

, (private banking),,,,,,,,,,, (total service),, 2 9 0

,,,,,,, :, 2020 291

( ) 37),,, 2020 2020 (mobility),,,,,,,,,, 37), 2 9 2

2005~2010 2011~2015 2016~2020 2005~2020 45 36 05 30 46 40 15 34 : 2000 2010,,,, 2005 2020 ( ) 30% 2020 2005 16 34% 17,,,, 293

1996, IMF,,,,,,,,,,,,,, 2 9 4

High- Tech Mid- Tech Low- Tech High- Tech Mid- Tech Low- Tech :, 2020,,, 295

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20051228 20051231 1983776-0001 130-742 206-9 02-3299-3114 wwwkietrekr 50,000 8 ISBN 89-5992-051-7 94320 ISBN 89-5992-045-2 8 02-3299-3151