청년실업의원인 : 직업탐색이론을 중심으로 1) 2009. 6 김용성연구위원한국개발연구원 1) 2008 6,.
목차 제 1 장서론 1 제2장청년층미취업현황및선행연구 4 제1절청년층노동시장의국제비교 5 제2절우리나라청년층노동시장의특징 8 1. 미취업청년층비중의증가 9 2. 청년층노동시장의경기비중립성 11 3. 하향취업 14 제3절청년층실업에대한선행연구 17 제3장청년층실업에대한이론적논의 20 제1절노동공급과수요변화에따른가능성 20 1. 인구구조의변화와상대적노동공급의변화 21 2. 산업구조변화에따른청년층노동수요변화 25 제2절일자리탐색 26 1. 일자리탐색이론 29 2. 자료및실증분석 33 제 5 장결론 46 참고문헌 48 부록 51
표목차 < 표 2-1> 청년층및중 장년층실업률의국제비교 6 < 표 2-2> 청년층및중 장년층경제활동참가율의국제비교 7 < 표 2-3> 청년층및중 장년층고용률의국제비교 8 < 표 2-4> 구직포기이유 : 청년층 (15~29세) 12 < 표 3-1> 청년층실업률및고용률과상대적인구비중과의관계 24 < 표 3-2> 산업별청년층취업자분포와고용비중 25 < 표 3-3> 연도별공석률의비교 28 < 표 3-4> 변수통계량 34 < 표 3-5> 기대임금, 의중임금, 미취업시소득의분포 42 < 표 3-6> 일자리매칭이론으로부터의제탄력성 42 < 표 3-7> 성별학력별제탄력성추정치 45
그림목차 [ 그림 2-1] 청년층의경제활동참가율과실업률의추이 10 [ 그림 2-2] 청년층미취업인구의비율 10 [ 그림 2-3] 청년층실업률의경기비중립성 13 [ 그림 2-4] 대졸이상학력층의하향취업현상 16 [ 그림 2-5] 대졸이상학력층의하향취업의심각성 16 [ 그림 3-1] 청년층의상대적비율과실업률의추이 22 [ 그림 3-2] 청년층의상대적비율과고용률의추이 23 [ 그림 3-3] 표준정규분포상수용가능한일자리의임금분포 37
제 1 장서론.. 2000.,...,,..
...., (),.,... ( ).,,.. 2
. 3.,. 4.
제 2 장청년층미취업현황및선행연구 15 29,..,,,.,,.,. OECD.,...
.,.. 2) 제 1 절청년층노동시장의국제비교,, OECD. < 2-1>. 2005 8.0%( 4 ) OECD (13.3%),. 2.9 (3.6), (3.4), (3.0) OECD (2.3).,. < 2-2> OECD. 2005 48.8% (33.5%), (33.7%), (44.8%) OECD (49.5%).. < 2-1> < 2-2> (,,, 2) 4.
), (,, ), (, )... < 표 2-1> 청년층및중 장년층실업률의국제비교 : 1. 2005, 4. 2. : 15 29,,. 16 24, 15 24. 3. : 30~60, 25 55. : OECD Employment Outlook, 2006.
< 표 2-2> 청년층및중 장년층경제활동참가율의국제비교 : 1. 2005, 4. 2. : 15 29,,. 16~24, 15 24. 3. : 30 60, 25 55. : OECD Employment Outlook, 2006.. (+ ). < 2-3>. 2005 44.9% OECD (42.9%). 0.6, OECD,.
< 표 2-3> 청년층및중 장년층고용률의국제비교 : 1. 2005, 4. 2. : 15 29,,. 16 24, 15 24. 3. : 30 60, 25 55. : OECD Employment Outlook, 2006. < 2-1>~< 2-3>,,. (unemployment) (joblessness). 제 2 절우리나라청년층노동시장의특징.,.
..,. 1. 미취업청년층비중의증가. (unemployment) (joblessness). 1997 48%, 5% ([ 2-1]). 1998~1999 3%p 45~46%, 10~12%. 2000 7%.,. [ 2-1] 2004 49% 2007 45.7%. 7.9% 6.7%.
[ 그림 2-1] 청년층의경제활동참가율과실업률의추이 50 (%) 14 49 12 48 10 47 8 46 6 45 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 경제활동참가율 ( 좌축 ) 실업률 ( 우축 ) 4 : 1. :,... 2004 (joblessness). [ 그림 2-2] 청년층미취업인구의비율 60 (%) 59 58 57 56 55 54 53 52 51 50 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 :,.
[ 2-2].. (personal factors) (job market factors),. < 2-4> 2000. 1), 2), 3), 60%..,, (Job matching). 2. 청년층노동시장의경기비중립성 (non-neutrality).
< 표 2-4> 구직포기이유 : 청년층 (15~29 세 ) (: %) : 1. :,..,,.,.
[ 2-3] 1980. (Pencavel, 1986). [ 2-3]. 3) [ 그림 2-3] 청년층실업률의경기비중립성 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 중장년층실업률 : 1. :, 청년층실업률 / 중장년층실업율 ( ), ( ). ( ) 3) (2004).
. 3. 하향취업,. 1990 1990 35% 2003 80%.,.. (occupational downgrading),,. (2004) 1990. 4) j t ( ) ( ) t ( ). (2-1),, t j. t 4) (2007).
. ( ) (, / <1). <1. [ 2-4] [ 2-5] /. 1. 1990 1.,. 2002.
[ 그림 2-4] 대졸이상학력층의하향취업현상 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.7 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 :, 전체남성여성 [ 그림 2-5] 대졸이상학력층의하향취업의심각성 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.7 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 :, 전체남성여성
제 3 절청년층실업에대한선행연구. () (), ( ). (2004).,. (2004) (30,, ). 1990, (, 2005;, 2005;, 2005;, 2005,, 2005). (2005) 1990
.. (2004). (2003) (2004). (2002), (2003), (2004), (2008).. (2003). 5) (2006). (prime age).. (job-searching model). 5) (job-search model) (reservation wage).
,,.,,.
제 3 장청년층실업에대한이론적논의... 1990.. 제 1 절노동공급과수요변화에따른가능성.,.,
.. 1. 인구구조의변화와상대적노동공급의변화. t ( ) ( ) ( ) (Shimer, 2001). (3-1) j t. (3-1) (direct effect) (cohort) (indirect effect).. (imperfect substitute). (crowding), (Korenman and Neumark, 1997). 6) (cohort effect)
, (+). [ 3-1]. 1980 (30 ) 86%, 2006 36%. 1980 1990, (comovement). [ 그림 3-1] 청년층의상대적비율과실업률의추이 90 13 84 12 78 11 72 10 66 9 60 8 54 7 48 6 42 5 36 4 30 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 3 청년층인구의비율 ( 좌축 ) 청년층실업률 ( 우축 ) :,, 6) OECD Labor Force Statistics, Employment Outlook (Statistical Annex), Demographic Yearbook by the UN. cohort size =( )/( ) GDP(or GNP) in real value converted to the rate of growth.. cohort.
1990, 2000 2002. 2003. [ 3-2]. 1980.. [ 그림 3-2] 청년층의상대적비율과고용률의추이 90 47.000 84 46.000 78 45.000 72 44.000 66 43.000 60 42.000 54 41.000 48 40.000 42 39.000 36 38.000 30 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 37.000 청년층인구의비율 ( 좌축 ) :,, 청년층고용률
.. Korenman and Neumark(1997) Shimer(2001). (3-2) (3-2),,,,.. (3-2) ( ),. (3-2). < 표 3-1> 청년층실업률및고용률과상대적인구비중과의관계 : 1, t-. :,,.
< 3-1>,.. 2. 산업구조변화에따른청년층노동수요변화,... < 표 3-2> 산업별청년층취업자분포와고용비중 (:%) : =( /( ) 100. :,
j E j, j k E jk, k (Katz and Murphy, 1992). (3-3) D k = j (E jk /E k )( E j /E j )=( j α jk E j )/E k E k = j E jk α jk =(E jk /E j ) j k. k. (3-3) E k α jk 1995~2007, 1995~2001 4% (ln(1+ D k )=0.0402). 2007~2001 (ln(1+ D k )=0.0397). 1990, (, 2004). 제 2 절일자리탐색.. (job searching theory) (decentralized).,
., (turnover)..., (< 2-4> ). 7) (vacancy rate) (3-4) v u. ( ) ( ), (shift). 7) Jackman and Loper(1987). Jackman and Loper, Jackman and Loper.
. 2001 2006.. 3.4~3.6%. < 표 3-3> 연도별공석률의비교 : 1. = ( )/ ( ) 2. 3.4~3.6%. :,,, < 3-3> 200 (3.4~3.6%). 2003 2005 2006....
1. 일자리탐색이론 Mortensen(1986) Pissarides(2000) (job searching). ' (decentralized)'. ' ' (imperfect informaion), (locational mismatch). 8), () (job offer). ( ), (accept) (reject). (offered wage, w) (reservation wage, ),.. (3-5) (3-5) (cumulative density function). 8) Mortensen(1986), Pissarides(1984), Diamond(1982).
, s, r, B. W ( ), ((Lancaster and Chesher, 1983; Lynch, 1983). (3-6) (3-7) : :, (expected wage). X (3-6) (3-7) W X. 9) (3-8) (3-9) ( ). (3-8). (3-9). (3-10) 9) (3-9) (3-8) (3-7).
(3-10) (X). W (conditional expectation of wage). (X) (Lancaster and Chesher, 1983; Lynch, 1983). (3-11) (3-11) (3-10) (optimal reservation wage). (3-12), where (3-5)-(3-12). (3-10) (b), (3-10),. (3-13) ln ln (3-13), (3-9) (U), ( )., (X)>( )> (B).
.. (3-14) ln ln (3-13) (3-14) ( ). (3-5) ln ln ln ln ln ln (B). ln ln ln ln (3-15) ln ln ln ln. ( ) (3-5) ( ). ( ) ( ) (3-5) ln ln ln ln, ln ln. ln ln (3-16) ln ln ln ln (3-16),. (3-5), ( ) ( )., (3-5)
( ). (3-16). 2. 자료및실증분석가. 자료. 2001 5 20%, 8 2001 ( 15~29 ).,,,,,., 2,747, 3,024., 10)... < 3-4>.,,. 10) 1,,,.
< 표 3-4> 변수통계량 :. :, 2001., 2001 4/4. 나. 실증분석 ( ), (X), (B). ( )?, (X)?, (B)?. 11)
,,...?.,.. (least amount) (expected amount).. (, ), (, )... 11) Lynch(1983) What is the lowest weekly wage you would accept before tax and other deductions?, How much do you expect to earn before tax and other deductions? How do you manage for money while you are out of work and how much does that amount to each week?. Lancaster and Chesher(1983).
.. z ( ln ). (3-17). [ 3-3] z., ( ) ( ln ) (, ).. (truncated from below) ( ln ) (Johnson and Kotz, 1970, p.81). (3-18) (standard normal distribution) (PDF), (CDF),.
[ 그림 3-3] 표준정규분포상수용가능한일자리의임금분포 [ 3-3] (3-18) ( ). (x) [ 3-3], ( ), ( ). (3-18) ( ) ( ) ( ), (3-18) *. (3-19) (x) (3-19)..,,,., (linearity)
,. (sample selection bias).. (3-20) i f i f (3-20) ( ). ( > ). ( ), (Heckman, 1979) 12). i. (3-21), (predicted value) (deviation). (3-21) (3-18) (3-19). (x) 12) (inverse Mill's ratio) Heckman(1979).
( ) ( ln ).,... (b)?.. (3-10) i ( ), (X) (B). (3-22) (3-22) X B. (3-22)., g i. (, )., (, ). (3-22) g i
. (3-23),. (3-23) (OLS). >0 (3-23). 13) (3-23), (3-10). (3-24) (3-17)-(3-24) 2001 3,024 (15~29 ) 1,636, 1,388. 1,388 (item missing) 13. (3-20) ( ) (X) 42... 14) 1,388 13),.
55 1,333 ( 96%). 1,333 '(X) > ( ) > (B)'..,. < 3-5>.,,,.,. 15),,,., 2, 1.7~1.8.,. < 3-5>.,. 14). 15),. (outlier).
< 표 3-5> 기대임금, 의중임금, 미취업시소득의분포 (: ) :, 2001.... < 표 3-6> 일자리탐색이론으로부터의제탄력성 ln ln ln ln ln ln ln ln ln ln ln ln
< 3-6>,,,. (F),,. (W). 16) (lnw) N(, ) (W) (Pareto distribution) max. 2 W lnw. 17) ( ) 2. 18) ln N(, ), exp exp exp.,,, (3-13) (3-15). ln (3-25) ln, 16) (w=lnw),. 17) (Strong Law of Pareto) Johnson and Kotz(1970). 18) Lancaster and Chesher(1983) Lynch(1983). (internal consistency) (moments).
.. ln (3-26) ln < 3-7> (3-25) (3-26). < 3-6>. < 3-7>., ( ) ( )., ( )..,., (, ) ( ).
< 표 3-7> 성별학력별제탄력성추정치 19) :,, 2001. 19) - 95% 0.91~0.95 >, - 95% -0.94~-0.93 <.
제 4 장결론,...,...,.
..,,.
참고문헌,, (),, 2004.,,, Vol. 26, No. 1, pp. 23 52, 2003.,, 5(2), 20005.,,,, 2006.,, 2006-2007,,,, Vol. 23, No. 4,, 2007., :,, 2008., -,, Vol 28. no. 3, 2005., -,, 2005.,,, Vol 28. no. 3, 2005,, 2004.,,,, 2004.,, 2003-01,, 2003.,, 2005-02,, 2005.,,, Vol. 25, No. 1, pp. 1-21, 2002.,, 2004.,, 2006-05,, 2006.,, 2005-06,, 2005.
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1987: Supply and Demand Factors, Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol. 107, No. 428, 1992. Korenman, Sanders, and David Neumark, Cohort Crowding and Youth Labor Markets: A Cross-National Analysis, NBER Working Paper No. 6031, 1997. Lancaster, Tony and Chesher, Andrew, An Econometric Analysis of Reservation Wages, Econometrica, Vol 51. No. 6, pp. 1661 1676, 1983. Lynch, Lisa M., Job Search and Youth Unemployment, Oxford Economic Papers, New Series, Vol 35., Supplement: The Cause of Unemployment, pp. 271 282, 1983. Martin, John, What works among Active Labour Market Policies, OECD Labour Market Occasional Papers, No. 35, OECD Publishing, 1998. Munich et al, 1997, The Worker-firm matching in transition economies: (why) are Czechs more successful than others? Working paper(william Davidson Institute, University of Michigan). Mortensen, Dale, Job Search and Labor Market Analysis in Handbook of Labor Economics, eds by Ashenfelter and Layard Vol 2. Chapter 15. 1986 OECD, OECD Employment Outlook, 2006. Pencavel, J., Labor supply of men: a survey, in O.Ashenfelter and R. Layard, eds., Handbook of Labor Economics, Vol 1. North Holland, Amsterdam. pp. 3 102.1986 Pissarides, Christopher A., Equilibrium Unemployment Theory, second edition, The MIT Press, Cambridge, Massachusetts, London, England. 2000 Pissarides, Christopher A., Are employers tax cuts the answer to Europe's unemployment problem?, Working paper, LSE, 1996 Pissarides, Christopher A., Search Intensity, Job Advertising and Efficiency, Journal of Labor Economics, Vol. 2, No. 1, 1984. Rees, Albert., An Essay on Youth Joblessness, Journal of Econometric Literature, Vol. 29, 1986, pp. 613 628 Shimer, Robert, The Impact of Young Workers on the Aggregate Labor Market, The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol. 116, No. 3, pp. 969 1007, 2001 Warren, Ronald.S., Returns to scale in a matching model of the labor market, Economic Letters, Vol. 50 p. 135 142. 1996 Warren(1996), Returns to scale in a matching model of the labor market, Economic Letters, 50: 801 817.
부록 < 부표 1> 표본편의를감안한임금방정식의추정
< 부표 1> 표본편의를감안한임금방정식의추정 ( 계속 ) :. :,, 2001. < 부표 2> 성별학력별회귀분석결과 ( 식 3-23) :. :,, 2001.