Page 1. Summary Chemical / Energy Weekly 3, / /!!! 26 3 2 Analyst 377-3564 1kyuwon1@naver.com
Chemical / Energy Weekly 26 3 2 [1] 1 : 2 : (WTI) 2.% 1.%.% -1.% -2.% -3.% -4.% -3.9% Source : Bloomberg '632 /'631 '6.1 /'5.4-2.2% -.5% WTI Dubai.1% -1.1% 2.2% -.1% 1.% B/C 8. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. (WTI) () (SK S-Oil, ) 3/1/3 3/7/3 4/1/3 4/7/3 5/1/3 5/7/3 6/1/3 Source : Bloomberg, 4. 35. 3. 25. 2. 15. 1. 5.. Page 2.
Chemical / Energy Weekly 26 3 2 [2] 3 : 4 : Ethylene Cash 4.% 3.% 2.% '632 /'631 '6.1 /'5.4 1.% -.5%.%.3%.%.% -1.2% -2.7%-2.% -3.1%-2.7% -1.% -1.4%-.7%-1.4% -2.% Naphtha Ethylene Propylene EG Source : PTA PET Chip HDPE LDPE PP ABS PS PVC Ethy lene() 16 Cash() 1. 14 12 8. 1 6. 8 6 4. 4 2. 2. 3/1/3 3/7/3 4/1/3 4/7/3 5/1/3 5/7/3 6/1/3 Source :, Page 3.
Chemical / Energy Weekly 26 3 2 [1] [2] 1 : 5 : () 2 1-1 -2-3 -4-5 11 Source : '632 '62-31 112 11 45-71 197 LG LG SK S-Oil Page 4.
Chemical / Energy Weekly 26 3 2 그림 6 : 중국의석유제품수입액및증가율 Source : Bloomberg 그림 8 : 중국의산업생산추이 그림 7 : 중국의석유화학제품수입액및증가율 Source : Bloomberg 그림 9 : 미국가계의구매력 ( 가계가처분소득증가율 ) 전망 Source : Bloomberg Source : (6.2 ) Page 5.
Chemical / Energy Weekly 26 3 2 BUY (Maintain) TP : 35, (1178) 3,!!! Analyst 377-3564 1kyuwon1@naver.com Summary Earnings Estimate 표 1 : 금호석화의 Valuation 내역 Source : :,, 25.12 Source:, Page 6.
Chemical / Energy Weekly 26 3 2 26 표 2 : 26 년사업계획점검 그림 1 : 사업부문별영업이익전망 Source :, Source :, 표 3 : 금호그릅지배구조특징 Source : 그림 2 : 금호그룹지분구조 (6.3.1 일 Update) Source : Page 7.
Chemical / Energy Weekly 26 3 2 35, 25 1,24 26 1,596 27 1,558 28 1,69 29 1,571. (37bbls) 표 4 : 관계사별기업가치제고방향 3%, 5%, 8%, 12.2, 21.7, 34.7. 2.% 2,447 4,71 7,51. Source : IR, Page 8.
Chemical / Energy Weekly 26 3 2 금호석화생산 Process 금호석화연혁및생산 Capa 금호석화 (1178) 투자등급추이 금호석화 (1178) 목표주가및주가추이 () 4 3 2 1 2412 2473 25225 25923 Source: Page 9.
Chemical / Energy Weekly 26 3 2 : (%) OECD () 1. 5.. (5.) 1/1/1 1/9/1 2/5/1 3/1/1 3/9/1 4/5/1 5/1/1 5/9/1 (%) 5. 4. 3. 2. 1.. () (1.) 1/1/1 1/9/1 2/5/1 3/1/1 3/9/1 4/5/1 5/1/1 5/9/1 () () () () () () () '6.3 BSI 9.2% 1.5% 11.9% 9.5% 26.3% 34.8% 89.% -1.% 1.% 3.% 5.% 7.% 9.% [6.3 BSI / 6.2 BSI -1] x 1 Source : datastream, Bloomberg, : Crude Oil() () (bbls) 8. WTI() 4 7. 36 6. 5. 32 4. 28 3. 2. 24 1. 9. 8. 7. 6. 5. 4. Gasoline () Gasoline(, ) (bbls) 3. 2. 24 23 22 21 2 19 18 Kerosene() () (bbls) 9. Kerosene(, ) 18 8. 16 7. 6. 14 5. 12 4. 3. 1 2. 8 6. 55. 5. 45. 4. 35. 3. 25. (Bunker) () (Bunker, ) (bbls) 2. 2 55 5 45 4 35 3 25 Naphtha Naphtha() 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. Page 1. Source : Bloomberg
Chemical / Energy Weekly 26 3 2 : (Cash) Ehthyle ne 16 Cash (Ethylene-Naphtha) Ethylene 14 12 1 8 6 4 2 14 12 1 8 6 4 2 Propylene Cash (Propylene-Naphtha) Propylene 14 12 1 8 6 4 2 EG Cash (EG-Ethylene) EG 1 8 6 4 2 TPA Cash (TPA-PX) TPA HDPE 14 Cash (HDPE-Ethylene) HDPE 12 1 8 6 4 2-2 -4 16 14 12 1 8 6 LDPE Cash (LDPE-Ethylene) LDPE 4 2 14 12 1 8 PP Cash (PP-Ethylene) PP 6 4 2-2 15 1 5 ABS Cash (ABS-(AN+Butadiene+SM)) ABS 12 1 8 6 4 2 PVC Cash (PVC-EDC) PVC Source :, : (Cash) LG/LG/// /KP//SK 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. - 9. 8. 7. 6. 5. 4. - 8. 6. 4. 2.. Page 11. - 9. 8. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. Source :, - 55. 5. 45. 4. 35. 3. 25. 2. 15. 8 6 4 2 - -2
Chemical / Energy Weekly 26 3 2 : (Refining ) 25. 2. 15. 1. 5.. SK/S-Oil Crack Spread (5.) 25. 2. 15. 1. 5.. SK Refining Spread = - (5.) Source :, : // (5.) Page 12. Tong Yang Investment Bank Research Center 3. 25. 2. 15. 1. 5.. Crack Spread = -