에너지경제연구 Korean Energy Economic Review Volume 11, Number 2, September 2012 : pp. 85~114 산업별에너지원간대체관계추정을통한탄소세의 CO 2 감축효과분석 * 85

~ ~ 87

~ 88

ln ln ln ln ln ln ln ln 90

ln ln ln ln ln ln ln ln ln ln ln ln 91

ln ln ln ln 92

< 표 1> 비용비중함수추정식의통계적유의도및설명력 94

100

< 표 4> 탄소세부과방법및탄소세율산정흐름 ( 음식담배업종예 ) 101

< 표 5> 이산화탄소배출계수 102

< 표 6> 업종별에너지원별탄소세 ( 전력포함 ) 율 103

< 표 7> 탄소세부과에따른에너지소비량및이산화탄소배출량변화 ( 제조업, 2008 기준 ) 104

105

< 표 8> 탄소세부과에따른이산화탄소배출량변화율비교 106

< 표 9> 탄소세부과에따른업종별에너지소비및 CO 2 배출량변화율 107

< 표 10> 탄소세부과에따른원별에너지소비및 CO 2 배출량 변화율 ( 제조업전체 ) < 표 11> 탄소세부과에따른원별에너지소비및 CO 2 배출량 변화율 ( 에너지다소비 3개업종 ) 108

109

110

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ABSTRACT The purpose of this study is to analyze the impact of carbon taxes on the reduction of energy consumption and CO 2 emissions by estimating the elasticities of interfuel substitution in 9 Korean manufacturing sectors and to draw its policy implications. For the purpose, this study estimates cost share functions of each energy source throughout static linear logit models, and calculates own-price elasticities and cross-price ones of fuel resources. Furthermore, using estimated elasticities of interfuel substitution for each manufacturing sector, this study analyzes the effect of carbon tax on CO 2 emissions reduction. In order to find the differences in impacts of imposing carbon tax on both primary energy and final energy, this study analyzes both of them and shows that imposing carbon tax on primary energy is more cost effectiveness than imposing carbon tax on final energy in reducing carbon dioxide emissions. That is, if carbon taxes are to be introduced, imposing carbon tax on primary energy like in other nations will make it easier to achieve policy goals. Key Words : logit model, carbon tax, elasticity of substitution, manufacturing JEL Codes : D24, Q41, Q48 114