신영증권 f

2019. 5. 13 # 111 신영조선 / 운송 Weekly 조선 / 운송담당엄경아 T.02)2004-9585 / um.kyung-a@shinyoung.com BDI 1 천포인트회복 신조선가지수지난주와동일한 131 기록, 누적발주량전년대비많음에서적음으로 중고선가지수지난주와동일한 97 포인트기록 BDI 1천포인트회복, 오일탱커, 가스선운임강세 MEPC 74차회의 5월 13일부터 17일사이에진행예정 (IMO 2020 진행여부확정 ) 신조선가지수는지난주와동일한 131 기록, 누적발주량전년대비많음에서적음으로 - 지난주 (5월 10일 ) 신조선가지수는지난주와동일한 131 기록 - 선종별선가는 13,000TEU급대형컨테이너선이 50만달러하락함 - 주간선박수주량은오일탱커 2척, 벌크선이 4척, 재래화물선이 1척으로총 7척을기록함. 누적수주량은 276척을기록했으며, 2018년누적수주량은 296척대비소폭감소 중고선가지수는지난주와동일한 96 기록, - 지난주 (5월 10일 ) 중고선가지수는지난주와동일한 96 기록 - 선종별선가도변동없었음 - 중고선은한주간총 29척거래되었음. 누적중고선거래량은 461척이었는데, 2018년동기누적거래량 558척대비적은편 BDI 1천포인트회복, 오일탱커, 가스선운임강세 - 해상운임은원유수송선중 VLCC 평균어닝이 17.3% 상승, 수에즈막스가 1.2% 상승, 아프라막스가 40.8% 상승함. 정유운반선중 MR탱커는 17.5% 상승했고, 핸디사이즈가 36.7% 상승하는등전체탱커운임시장이상승세를보임 - 벌크선운임지수인 BDI가전주대비 2.8% 상승한 1013을기록. 전선종의운임이골고루회복되는모습 - 가스선중 84k 급 LPG선운임은지난주대비하락하긴했으나, 42,280달러로절대적으로높은수준을기록. 160k급 LNG선은 48,500달러를기록하며전주대비 7천달러상승함 - 컨테이너운임은 SCFI가 2주전대비 1.6% 하락하여 765.88, CCFI가 1.3% 하락하여 792.15 기록

1. 신조선시장동향 신조선가동향 Newbuilding Year End, $m. Three Month Trend Price 2015 2016 2017 2018 19-05-10 Tankers VLCC 320,000dwt 93.5 84.5 81.5 92.5 93.0 FIRM 0.2% Suezmax 157,000dwt 63.0 54.5 55.0 60.5 61.5 FIRM 0.5% Aframax 115,000dwt 52.0 44.5 44.0 48.0 48.5 FIRM 0.3% MR'Tanker 51,000dwt 35.5 32.5 33.8 36.5 36.5 SAME Bulk Carriers Capesize 180,000dwt 46.0 42.0 44.0 50.0 51.0 FIRM 0.7% Panamax 81,000dwt 26.5 24.5 25.5 28.0 28.0 SAME - Handymax 62,000dwt 24.3 22.3 24.0 26.0 26.0 SAME - Handysize 35,000dwt 20.5 19.5 22.0 24.0 24.0 SAME - Gas Vessels LPG 82,000m 3 77.0 71.0 70.0 71.0 71.0 SAME - LNG 174,000m 3 204.0 197.0 182.0 182.0 185.0 FIRM 0.7% Dry Cargo Container 13,000teu 116.0 109.0 107.0 115.0 112.0 WEAKER -1.4% Container 2,750teu 29.5 27.0 29.0 35.0 35.0 SAME - Pure Car Carrier 6,000ceu 59.5 60.0 61.0 63.5 65.0 FIRM 1.8% Clarkson Index 131 123 125 130 131 FIRM 0.4% 신조선수주량동향 Newbuilding Vessels Contracted Year-on-Year Trend Activity 2015 2016 2017 2018 19-05-10 Oil Tankers 426 128 219 169 29 WEAK -58% Chemical & Spec. Tankers 139 60 52 35 8 WEAK -51% LPG Carriers 74 17 22 41 13 WEAK -17% LNG Carriers 37 9 17 76 22 WEAK -19% Bulk Carriers 352 54 286 279 76 WEAK -48% Containerships 268 98 108 190 53 WEAK -29% General Cargo Vessels 111 30 44 64 36 FIRMER 29% Ro-Ro Vessels 58 24 13 21 7 WEAK -18% Refrigerated Vessels 6 3 1 1 FIRMER 41% Offshore Vessels 181 58 31 36 5 WEAK -66% FPSO/FSU 2-6 5 3 FIRMER 69% Passenger & Cruise Ships 54 100 75 75 26 WEAKER -14% Other Misc. Vessels 41 23 29 25 4 WEAK -69% TOTAL CONTRACTING 1,749 604 902 1,017 283 WEAK -36% 2

2. 중고선시장동향 중고선가동향 Secondhand Year End, $m. Three Month Trend Price 2015 2016 2017 2018 19-05-03 Oil Tankers 310,000dwt Resale 100.0 84.0 84.0 94.0 93.0 STEADY -1.0% 310,000dwt 5yrs 80.0 60.0 64.0 66.0 68.0 STEADY 0.0% 160,000dwt Resale 70.0 55.0 56.0 66.0 65.0 SOFTER -5.0% 160,000dwt 5yrs 60.0 40.0 43.0 46.0 49.0 STEADY 3.0% 105,000dwt Resale 55.0 44.0 45.0 48.0 49.0 STEADY 1.0% 105,000dwt 5yrs 46.0 29.0 32.0 33.0 35.0 STEADY 2.0% 73,000dwt Resale 48.0 40.0 40.0 43.0 42.5 STEADY -1.0% 73,000dwt 5yrs 35.0 28.0 28.0 30.0 30.0 SOFTER -5.0% 51,000dwt Resale 38.5 32.5 35.0 37.5 37.5 STEADY 0.0% 47,000dwt 5yrs 29.0 22.0 25.0 27.5 28.0 STEADY 1.0% 37,000dwt 5yrs 25.0 19.0 22.0 24.0 24.0 STEADY -3.0% 19,999dwt Chem S/S 5yrs 27.0 23.0 21.3 21.0 20.8 STEADY -2.0% 5-y-o Tanker Index 144 105 116 124 127 STEADY -1.0% 12 month Change 10.0% -27.0% 10.0% 7.0% 6.0% Bulkcarrier 180,000dwt Resale 39.0 36.5 46.5 52.0 52.0 STEADY 0.0% 180,000dwt(eco) 5yrs - - - 41.3 38.5 SOFTER -5.0% 180,000dwt(non-eco) 5yrs 25.0 24.0 33.0 33.5 31.0 SOFETR -5.0% 82,000dwt Resale 25.0 24.5 28.5 31.5 31.5 STEADY 0.0% 76,000dwt 5yrs 14.0 14.0 22.5 23.5 24.5 STEADY 1.0% 61,000dwt Resale 22.5 23.0 27.5 28.5 28.0 STEADY -2.0% 56,000dwt 5yrs 13.5 14.0 17.5 18.0 13.5 STEADY -2.0% 37,000dwt Resale 19.0 18.5 23.0 24.5 23.5 STAEDY -3.0% 32,000dwt 5yrs 10.0 12.0 14.0 15.0 17.0 FIRM 4.0% 5-y-o Bulker Index 73 79 100 104 108 STEADY 1.0% 12 month Change -37.0% 7.0% 27.0% 5.0% 1.0% Container & Ro-Ro 4,500teu 5yrs 16.0 7.0 12.5 15.5 14.0 SOFTER -5.0% 1,700teu 10yrs 8.5 5.5 9.0 10.5 9.5 SOFTER -3.0% Container Index 35.7 24.8 38.2 40.1 38.6 STEADY -1.0% Clarkson Index 93 75 94 98 96 STEADY -2.0% 3

중고선거래량동향 Sales & Purchase Vessels Sales Activity 2015 2016 2017 2018 19-05-10 %yoy Tanker Sales VLCC 37 22 44 42 12-7.7% Suezmax 38 17 28 23 11 83.3% Aframax 35 39 37 66 14-22.2% Handy/Pmax 186 146 175 202 88 76.0% Total No. Sales 296 224 284 333 125 43.7% Total DWT(,000) 27,823 18,767 28,243 32,596 10,060 12.0% Total Value($m) 8,476 4,025 5,628 4,956 2,047 23.7% Bulker Sales Capesize 73 89 85 74 3-88.5% Panamax 120 165 171 152 53-13.1% Handymax 130 200 238 205 80-18.4% Handysize 132 160 178 147 39-31.6% Total No. Sales 455 614 672 578 175-27.7% Total DWT(,000) 35,095 44,088 47,580 40,857 10,258-37.2% Total Value($m) 6,198 5,239 7,749 7,427 1,627-42.6% Other Sales Total No. Sales 575 441 727 573 161-29.7% Total DWT(,000) 13,811 7,983 18,213 11,943 3,362-26.8% Total Value($m) 8,294 3,113 6,121 5,410 2,304-11.1% TOTAL SALES Total No. Sales 1,326 1,279 1,683 1,484 461-17.4% Total DWT(,000) 76,729 70,838 94,036 85,396 23,679-20.8% Total Value($m) 22,968 12,377 19,499 17,793 5,978-15.6% Average $/Dwt 299 175 207 208 252 6.3% 신조선가지수 중고선가지수 (index Jan'88=100) 250 350 200 300 250 150 200 100 index(190510)=131 150 index(190510)=96 50 100 50 0 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 0 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 4

3. 해상운임시장동향 선종별스팟운임동향 Spot Market Average earnings $ per day Earnings This Week Average Earnings 2016 2017 2018 19-04-26 19-05-10 <Crude Tankers> VLCC 41,488 17,794 15,561 10,295 7,814 FIRMER 17.3% Suezmax 27,567 15,829 16,466 12,408 13,028 STEADY 1.2% Aframax 22,965 13,873 16,175 11,791 20,800 FIRMER 40.8% <Clean Product> Clean 'MR' 12,124 10,213 8,750 11,037 10,999 FIRMER 17.5% Clean 'Hdy' 8,962 7,380 6,734 8,195 9,246 FIRMER 36.7% <Dirty Product> Dirty 15,388 10,184 9,739 9,982 10,965 FIRM 5.7% <Bulk Carriers> BDI (index) 675 1,150 1,271 889 1,013 STEADY 2.8% Capesize 8,208 13,475 14,026 6,162 9,380 FIRMER 16.1% Panamax 6,712 10,570 12,866 10,428 11,526 FIRM 4.4% Supramax 6,264 10,590 12,112 8,384 10,677 FIRMER 10.1% <Gas Carriers> 84k LPG TC 22,646 15,017 18,326 51,420 42,280 WEAKER -12.8% 160k LNG Spot 33,528 46,058 88,692 34,000 48,500 FIRMER 16.9% 13k Chemical IMO II 10,625 8,769 9,083 8,500 8,500 STEADY 0.0% <Container> SCFI 653 825 911 778.00 765.88 STEADY -1.6% CCFI 712 819 835 802.27 792.15 STEADY -1.3% Clarksea Index 9,441 10,758 15,931 11,142 11,788 FIRM 5.0% 자료 : 클락슨, Bloomberg, 신영증권리서치센터 컨테이너운임지수추이 벌크선운임지수추이 (pt) 1,800 1,600 CCFI SCFI 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 4,500 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 index(190510)=1031 2,000 1,500 1,000 200 SCFI(190510)=756.88 CCFI(190510)=792.15 0 0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 자료 : chineseshipping, 신영증권리서치센터자료 : Bloomberg, 신영증권리서치센터 500 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 5

Compliance Notice 투자등급종목매수 : 향후 12 개월동안추천일종가대비목표주가 10% 이상의상승이예상되는경우 산업 중립 : 향후 12 개월동안추천일종가대비 ±10% 이내의등락이예상되는경우 매도 : 향후 12 개월동안추천일종가대비목표주가 -10% 이하의하락이예상되는경우 비중확대 : 향후 12 개월동안분석대상산업의보유비중을시장비중대비높게가져갈것을추천 중 립 : 향후 12 개월동안분석대상산업의보유비중을시장비중과같게가져갈것을추천 비중축소 : 향후 12 개월동안분석대상산업의보유비중을시장비중대비낮게가져갈것을추천 당사는본자료발간일을기준으로지난 1 년간해당기업의기업금융관련업무를수행한바없습니다. 본자료는당사홈페이지에게시된자료로, 기관투자가등제 3 자에게사전제공한사실이없습니다. 본자료작성한애널리스트는발간일현재본인및배우자의계좌로동주식을보유하고있지않으며, 재산적이해관계가없습니다. 본자료의작성담당자는자료에게재된내용이본인의의견을정확하게반영하고있으며, 외부의부당한압력이나간섭없이작성되었음을확인합니다. 본자료는과거의자료를기초로한투자참고자료로서향후주가움직임은과거의패턴과다를수있습니다. 본자료에수록된내용은당리서치센터가신뢰할수있는자료및정보로얻어진것이나정확성을보장할수없으므로어떠한경우에도본자료는고객의주식투자의결과에대한법적소재에대한증빙자료로사용될수없습니다. 6